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How Arthur C. Clarke Predicted We'd Communicate in the 21st Century (paleotronic.com)
beaverdownunder quotes Paleotronic:
While researching for our magazine we sometimes find nuggets buried by time that have been forgotten by the Internet. This particular nugget was found in the May 1977 issue of Creative Computing. Science fiction author and futurist Arthur C. Clarke's predictions of the future are fascinating, both for what he got right, and what he got wrong.
Quoting Arthur C. Clarke: [W]hat about verbal inputs? Do we really need a keyboard? I'm sure the answer is "Yes." We want to be able to type out messages, look at them, and edit them before transmission. We need keyboard inputs for privacy, and quietness. A reliable voice recognition system, capable of coping with accents, hangovers, ill-fitting dentures and the "human error" that my late friend HAL, the computer from 2001, complained about, represents something many orders of magnitude more complex than a simple alpha-numeric keyboard. It would be a device with capabilities, in a limited area, at least as good as those of a human brain. Yet assuming that the curves of the last few decades can be extrapolated, this will certainly be available sometime in the next century....
Noting that he coined the phrase "Don't commute -- communicate!" Clark adds "We are already approaching the point when it will be feasible -- not necessarily desirable -- for those engaged in what is quaintly called "white-collar" jobs to do perhaps 95 per cent of their work without leaving home. Of course, few of today's families could survive this, but for the moment let's confine ourselves to electronic, not social, technology."
But he wasn't excited about the possibility of telepathy in the future. "I find that my mental processes are so incoherent...that I should be very sorry for anyone at the receiving end."
Quoting Arthur C. Clarke: [W]hat about verbal inputs? Do we really need a keyboard? I'm sure the answer is "Yes." We want to be able to type out messages, look at them, and edit them before transmission. We need keyboard inputs for privacy, and quietness. A reliable voice recognition system, capable of coping with accents, hangovers, ill-fitting dentures and the "human error" that my late friend HAL, the computer from 2001, complained about, represents something many orders of magnitude more complex than a simple alpha-numeric keyboard. It would be a device with capabilities, in a limited area, at least as good as those of a human brain. Yet assuming that the curves of the last few decades can be extrapolated, this will certainly be available sometime in the next century....
Noting that he coined the phrase "Don't commute -- communicate!" Clark adds "We are already approaching the point when it will be feasible -- not necessarily desirable -- for those engaged in what is quaintly called "white-collar" jobs to do perhaps 95 per cent of their work without leaving home. Of course, few of today's families could survive this, but for the moment let's confine ourselves to electronic, not social, technology."
But he wasn't excited about the possibility of telepathy in the future. "I find that my mental processes are so incoherent...that I should be very sorry for anyone at the receiving end."
Ah well the conflations of the science-fiction writing class are clearly apparent. He had no need for an editor, but he had to typeset all his own works. And people wonder why he wrote stuff like this.
So, Facebook and Twitter?
Written, time-delayed communication is as old as human civilization. The typewriter, end hence the keyboard is just a final improvement. Same for real-time voice communication, where the final improvement was to be able to do it over large distances. Seriously, it does take zero "vision" for such a prediction, just seeing what is is quite enough. And we will stay with these interface types, because they are what works.
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
People predict a lot of things. Where's that orbiting space wheel?
"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
What we're missing is robots and technology made entirely from solid state electronics without any moving parts. According to the man, no machine may contain any moving parts.
Oh he had an editor, and people never wondered at why he wrote what he did. In fact, the war crimes tribunal at the Hague after WWII had people thinking the same thing, long before he did. They (IBM to be specific) did real time translation from German to English and French using human machine translation backed up by humans (one of which was a great uncle of mine working for the British and American group).
Stay safe and think encrypted thoughts....
The 12st century version of trash television.
We want to be able to type out messages, look at them, and edit them before transmission. We need keyboard inputs for privacy, and quietness.
"And we'll do it all with just our thumbs. What, why are you looking at me like that?"
He also predicted that we'd still be using PetaByte drives in 3001
Shielding is all about mass - whether it's a tonne of water, a tonne of rock, a tonne of iron, or a tonne of lead - you need water to support life in space. You're going to spend fuel to get whatever you use as shielding to your space station, so why not bring something you can use.
" This is a solved problem. " Nope. But I appreciate your enthusiasm for the future, sure.
We have factories on Earth and thus we can build factories in Space. It is easy. Just mine some asteroids and create the shielding you need.
Nope! But I appreciate your enthusiasm for the future, sure.
If you're trying to write code, or anything longer than a text message, you definitely still want to use a keyboard. Voice recognition has come a long way, but it's still a far cry less accurate than typing.
I am often surprised about how well Siri understands me speaking Dutch to her. Even when I stutter or use the local accent or burp during talking she manages to understand me perfectly well most of the time. Oftentimes her answers to my questions are amazingly unusable though, which is a bummer of course.
-- Cheers!
In the 21st century, calls will be far more efficient because rotary phones will spin twice as fast. Computers will be so small they will fit in an ordinary two-car garage. You will be able to make calls from anywhere because there will be a phone booth on every street corner. High speed miniature printing presses in every home will make it possible to receive a book in a matter of days rather than 4 to 6 weeks. Low cost air conditioning will make it possible to have a cooling room in every neighborhood.
its cute the author is trying to shoehorn in telework or whatever nonsense its called this week at the end of a summary about communications, they obviously do not communicate much if they think a jarring subject change is acceptable, but I digress.
Clarke was wrong on that point, the white collar jobs he speaks of, are not things people even do anymore, let alone from home ... those jobs have been replaced by software and automated systems decades ago. If you have a job where you can work from home, just keep in mind that its something that anyone could do, including software ... and the value you bring is almost nil cause no one knows you exist in the first place
What an old dead limey cracker shit "predicted".
Clarke did not predict that since the 1970s, housing costs would rise faster than take-home pay.
Back in the day, most middle class houses could afford a dedicated "den" room. Today, it is not economically feasible for most people to work from home most of the time. Certainly not in a manner that OH&S would allow.
sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f(q{sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f});
It is easy. Just mine some asteroids and....
I have a feeling that the attitude "just mine some asteroids" might be a wee bit more complicated in practice. But I like the idea of working on an asterioid mining ship.