Intel CPU Shortages To Worsen in Q2 2019: Research (digitimes.com)

← Back to Stories (view on slashdot.org)

Intel CPU Shortages To Worsen in Q2 2019: Research (digitimes.com)

Posted by msmash on Tuesday March 12, 2019 @08:12AM from the closer-look dept.

Shortages of Intel's CPUs are expected to worsen in the second quarter compared to the first as demand for Chromebooks, which are mostly equipped with Intel's entry-level processors, enters the high period, according to Digitimes Research. From the report: Digitimes Research expects Intel CPUs' supply gap to shrink to 2-3% in the first quarter with Core i3 taking over Core i5 as the series hit hardest by shortages. The shortages started in August 2018 with major brands including Hewlett-Packard (HP), Dell and Lenovo all experiencing supply gaps of over 5% at their worst moment. Although most market watchers originally believed that the shortages would gradually ease after vendors completed their inventory preparations for the year-end holidays, the supply gap in the fourth quarter of 2018 still stayed at the same level as that in the third as HP launched a second wave of CPU inventory buildup during the last quarter of the year, prompting other vendors to follow suit. Taiwan-based vendors were underprepared and saw their supply gaps expand from a single digit percentage previously to over 10% in the fourth quarter. With all the impacts, the notebook market continued suffering a 4-5% supply gap in the fourth quarter of 2018.

44 of 97 comments (clear)

Min score:

Reason:

Sort:

No Worries... This Will Be Addressed Soon! by Anonymous Coward · 2019-03-12 08:21 · Score: 2, Funny

This is not going to be a problem for much longer.
In fact, Intel's 10nm process node will be ready for high volume full-scale production any day now!
Microsoft making the problem worse by xack · 2019-03-12 08:22 · Score: 3, Insightful

By ending Windows 7. A lot of perfectly good computers will be junked and will put a strain on intel and amd for "new" PCs.
1. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by The+Optimizer · 2019-03-12 08:31 · Score: 2
  
  Apparently that's a feature for Intel & Microsoft, etc and not a bug.
  Imagine the horror if everyone kept their current PC and OS twice as long .. maybe even as much as 1/5th the lifespan of a good toaster .. Quarterly revenue growth would be devastated and shareholders and the market would revolt. Can't have that now, can we?
2. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by HornWumpus · 2019-03-12 08:48 · Score: 1
  
  Be fair, the latest generation of Intel CPUs show a performance increase exactly in line with expectations from the faster RAM.
  Which, of course, is why these CPUs only work with Windows 10.
  
  --
  John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
3. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by epine · 2019-03-12 08:50 · Score: 1
  
  A lot of perfectly good computers will be junked and will put a strain on intel and amd for "new" PCs.
  One man's "strain" is another man's comfortable margin.
  It's hardly ever the supply that's strained. The "strained" are almost always the smallest fish in the pond, with the least secure contractual futures and demand leverage. Apple is not going one measly CPU short of their ultimate desire, I guarantee it.
  What this story really means is that HP tooled up to sell a higher volume at a lower price point, and now at the last minute, they need to revamp their channel strategy for lower volumes at higher price points. Since this isn't a sexy category any longer, they probably don't enjoy a lot of pricing power, so they'd probably rather have the former scenario than the later scenario.
  At the end of the day, some consumers balanced on the marginal knife-edge will continue to run their old junk for six months longer than they might have otherwise. Then their next purchase begins to age out six months later than it might have but for the supply headwind.
  A few HP salespeople on the personal-bonus knife edge are lathering up a storm. Few other parties to the system feel any great strain at all. Even Intel's manufacturing arm probably turned the tiller months ago, and now just have to sit back and let this run itself out.
  "Hey, Intel facilities guy, couldn't you just commission that fancy stepper line a month sooner? We know this is delicate work that potentially affects yield for years to come, but We Need It Now."
  Hard, cold stare in return.
  Basically, that hard-pressed HP sales guy who is $5000 short of making his next commission rung can go jump into a cold lake.
4. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by omnichad · 2019-03-12 08:57 · Score: 1
  
  If there's a PC out there that can't have a free update to 10, it probably started its life running XP.
5. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by Lonewolf666 · 2019-03-12 08:58 · Score: 1
  
  Perhaps some of the OEMs will now add a line of computers with AMD where they had none before. It was quite some time ago, but I remember Dell had that once. Might have been the time of Athlon64 vs. Pentium4.
  
  --
  C - the footgun of programming languages
6. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by Anonymous Coward · 2019-03-12 09:13 · Score: 1
  
  Windows 10 is only free if your privacy is worthless.
7. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by mcl630 · 2019-03-12 09:28 · Score: 1
  
  Dell has had AMD systems again for at least a couple years now.
8. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by xack · 2019-03-12 09:31 · Score: 1
  
  Also perfectly good cpus are getting locked out because of lack of sse2 or 3. Its not just old cpus many embedded processors also are affected. Mozilla too not just Microsoft.
9. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by omnichad · 2019-03-12 14:03 · Score: 1
  
  A bit off-topic. That wouldn't result in computers being junked in favor of something else.
10. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by Chryana · 2019-03-12 17:10 · Score: 1
  
  This. Microsoft offered everyone running Windows 7 to upgrade to Windows 10 for free for at least a year. Didn't want to take the free upgrade when it was offered? Life is tough. Go to the store and buy the latest version. Or install Windows 10 and try the Windows 7 key, it works surprisingly often. How long do people expect Microsoft to support them for free. When you start comparing how long Microsoft supported Windows 7 compared to Google and Apple with their respective operating systems, it doesn't look that bad after all.
11. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by omnichad · 2019-03-13 01:16 · Score: 1
  
  You can still do the in-place upgrade to 10 as far as I'm aware. I still do it every month or two.
12. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by jjbenz · 2019-03-13 05:36 · Score: 1
  
  Years ago we had Dell Optiplex 740 and 580 systems at work. Both of those systems used AMD Athlon processors.
13. Re:Microsoft making the problem worse by toddestan · 2019-03-13 15:46 · Score: 1
  
  Depends on the how the computer was built. Not a lot has actually changed since the mid/late-2000's. If I wanted to replace my i7-3770k, I'd have to buy the new CPU (obvious), a new motherboard because the socket has changed, and new ram because I'd be going from DDR3 to DDR4. The new motherboard would still go in my ATX case, the power supply can be reused, the graphics card can be reused, and all the drives would plug right in. Yeah, maybe I might also want to upgrade to a M.2 SSD while I'm at it, but I could just plug in the SATA one and go with it.
  Much better situation than 10 years ago. In 2009, a computer from 2002 would have a 20 pin power supply (incompatible), AGP graphics (incompatible), and PATA drives (well, some motherboards would still support you in 2009). Pretty much the only thing you could count on being able to reuse would be the case.
Re:Well, sounds like it'll be solved next year by Joe_Dragon · 2019-03-12 08:47 · Score: 1

and the pro market may move to AMD systems at the lower cost and more pci-e lanes then Intel as well.
Sounds like a great time... by SuperKendall · 2019-03-12 08:55 · Score: 2

...for some companies to switch to ARM.
Who is ready, I wonder?

--
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
1. Re:Sounds like a great time... by Maelwryth · 2019-03-12 09:59 · Score: 1
  
  Try this
  
  --
  I reserve the write to mangle english.
2. Re:Sounds like a great time... by Anonymous Coward · 2019-03-12 10:12 · Score: 1
  
  There are Windows 10 laptops with an ARM Snapdragon and 8GB RAM. Might not be that bad as a small fanless desktop or all-in-one computer, if they made ones. But I don't think they give a shit about making a desktop.
  Some people run Ubuntu on nvidia Shield TV (slower CPU and 3GB RAM, relatively powerful GPU if nvidia proprietary driver actually runs)
  There's this as neither x86 nor ARM.
  It's just.. fairly expensive compared to a PC but not completely outlandish.
  https://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Blackbird-POWER9-Pre-Orders
  https://secure.raptorcs.com/content/BK1MB1/purchase.html
  not something high volume either so it should be easier to buy PCs under "shortage"
  you'll run into software issues too (e.g. browsers and codec are optimized for x86 and ARM only)
  but it's something as powerful as a PC that is not a PC (but... quite looks and works like one anyway!) which is not very common in this century.
3. Re:Sounds like a great time... by radarskiy · 2019-03-13 05:38 · Score: 1
  
  For it to be a great time to switch to ARM, you not only need someone with ARM processors to fit the design you want to put them but also someone with fab capacity at advanced process nodes that can be used to make them. The problem is NO ONE HAS SPARE FAB CAPACITY AT ADVANCED NODES.
Re:Well, sounds like it'll be solved next year by omnichad · 2019-03-12 08:59 · Score: 1

They won't be announcing that for 2 more weeks. Shhh!!
I don't see a problem. I see the opposite by melted · 2019-03-12 09:25 · Score: 4, Informative

AMD Ryzen chips are pretty great right now, on both the low and the high end, and there's a significant update coming out mid-year. Moreover, at the low end they ship with much better integrated GPUs. And they're a bit cheaper, too.
1. Re:I don't see a problem. I see the opposite by Type44Q · 2019-03-12 10:12 · Score: 1
  
  Moreover, at the low end they ship with much better integrated GPUs.
  Integrated GPU's that still ride on the memory bus. I just built a cheap Ryzen system for a friend and in it went a $20 eBay GT720: Accept no substitutes for discrete graphics.
2. Re:I don't see a problem. I see the opposite by melted · 2019-03-12 12:02 · Score: 1
  
  Most people don't play games, and for most of the rest integrated GPU is still quite adequate.
3. Re:I don't see a problem. I see the opposite by AHuxley · 2019-03-12 13:26 · Score: 1
  
  The problem is people like to buy Intel and are voting with their spending to enjoy Intel CPU products.
  
  --
  Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
4. Re:I don't see a problem. I see the opposite by melted · 2019-03-12 16:27 · Score: 1
  
  Intel has been consistently aiming for their own feet over the past couple of years. Maybe people will reconsider their ways. I certainly have.
5. Re:I don't see a problem. I see the opposite by TeknoHog · 2019-03-13 01:51 · Score: 1
  
  Accept no substitutes for discrete graphics
  Tell that to Hades Canyon. Integrated Vega GPU equivalent to approx GTX 1060.
  If it's sharing the memory bus with the CPU, then that's a lot of GPU power going to waste. However, a little googling shows that Hades Canyon actually has 4 GB of dedicated memory, which is not too shabby.
  
  --
  Escher was the first MC and Giger invented the HR department.
6. Re:I don't see a problem. I see the opposite by samwichse · 2019-03-13 07:44 · Score: 1
  
  Ryzen 5 2400g integrated graphics are about on par with a GT1030, which should be a chunk faster than that GT720.
  Like you said, the shared memory bus is a bottleneck, so I just built one with 2933, which seems to hit the sweet spot with price/performance for RAM:
  https://www.pcper.com/reviews/...
  It's a heck of a step up in games from the system I was running before (an elderly GTX260 with a quad core FX processor) and the whole thing draws about 1/3 what the old system did running all out (and almost nothing at idle).
  Nice upgrade for the price, and you can throw in a discreet card later as the integrated graphics get long in the tooth.
7. Re:I don't see a problem. I see the opposite by thegarbz · 2019-03-13 08:19 · Score: 1
  
  Please tell me you're joking. The Vega RX11 in the Ryzen iGPU is between 4x and 6x faster than a GT720 on it's best day. The Vega RX8 is only a few percent worse than the 11. In a general sense they are on par with current entry level cards like the GTX1030 which is a damn sight faster than your waste of $20.
Naw, they'll have their hard disks pulled by rsilvergun · 2019-03-12 09:56 · Score: 1

and be resold. My 9 year old Athlon XP 3000 ran Win10 just fine until I replaced it with an i5-4590k so I could game on my main TV.

If anything the pressure will be in reverse as used computers hit the market. Especially in countries that don't pay too close attention to where a Windows license came from.

Same thing's happening with GPUs. I just got an RX 580 off ebay for $100 bucks shipped and you can get a brand new RX 570 for $130 bucks shipped with two free games.

--
Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
Thank goodness for AMD! by EzInKy · 2019-03-12 10:04 · Score: 1

It is crazy there is so much focus on Intel.

--
Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
Re:Well, sounds like it'll be solved next year by GonzoPhysicist · 2019-03-12 10:08 · Score: 1

The next gen (Zen2) is supposed to be spectre-proof too

--
horror vacui
Buy only AMD until Meltdown and Spoiler are fixed! by Anonymous Coward · 2019-03-12 10:18 · Score: 1

I mean it. Sooner or later a truly malicious exploit on them is going to come out. It would not surprise me at all if it eventually got traced back to Microsoft trying to force sell more Win 10 licenses by hook or by crook.
It's fake news anyway... by Anonymous Coward · 2019-03-12 11:45 · Score: 1

Nobody wants a Spectre, Meltdown, Spoiler, and IME bug-ridden Intel CPU. Until Intel gets their act together to close all these serious hardware design flaws, there will be NO shortage of craptastic Intel CPUs because nobody wants this garbage. Anyone claiming otherwise is spouting Fake News.
Disco by Tablizer · 2019-03-12 12:11 · Score: 1

PC's are the latest rage, who wouldda guessed.

--
Table-ized A.I.
Comment removed by account_deleted · 2019-03-12 12:47 · Score: 1

Comment removed based on user account deletion
Re:Even with all the CPU vulnerabilities? by AHuxley · 2019-03-12 13:28 · Score: 1

The part Intel gets right is speed and power for the price.
Work and game better on Intel.
People want their frame rates up and have a GPU to support.
Intel products do that for games and most average computing tasks people expect to do.

--
Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
Re:Even with all the CPU vulnerabilities? by drinkypoo · 2019-03-12 14:15 · Score: 1

The part Intel gets right is speed and power for the price.
Work and game better on Intel.

For a few paltry FPS you often wind up paying twice the price. I'm not opposed to paying more and getting more, I'm opposed to paying that much more and not getting much more at all. When you add in AMD giving ECC support at all levels, and lots of PCIE lanes even on mediocre processors, it's hard to understand how Intel is supposed to have an advantage. And if you are mitigating their vulnerabilities, that advantage disappears real fast.

--
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Re:Even with all the CPU vulnerabilities? by AHuxley · 2019-03-12 14:24 · Score: 1

For some reason Intel is selling well at the price.
Game support per core? Brand on the box?

--
Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
Re:Even with all the CPU vulnerabilities? by drinkypoo · 2019-03-12 14:36 · Score: 1

For some reason Intel is selling well at the price.
Game support per core? Brand on the box?
I think it's more the latter than the former. People are just used to buying Intel. Most games are multithreaded these days anyway, and saving some money and buying a better GPU will return better results in most cases.

--
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Re:Well, sounds like it'll be solved next year by Joe_Dragon · 2019-03-12 16:13 · Score: 1

there should be no capping at all. I think the imac pro may even been cut down a bit by apple planing an just in case.
Sounds like a great time... by hcs_$reboot · 2019-03-12 16:47 · Score: 1

...to put Linux on older CPUs.

--
Slashdot, fix the reply notifications... You won't get away with it...
Re:Even with all the CPU vulnerabilities? by Highdude702 · 2019-03-12 23:51 · Score: 1

AMD will take IPC crown on 7/7 anyways. 7nm yay.
Re:Rather buy older core i5 then Celeron by toddestan · 2019-03-13 16:00 · Score: 1

My guess is the CPU is fine. Those machines are hobbled mostly by slow drives, and lack of ram which a decent portion is gobbled up by the GPU. A lot of those Celerons benchmark similar to Core 2 Duo chips, and a halfway decent Core 2 system can run a current OS perfectly fine and is a usable desktop system.