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The End of the Desktop? (computerworld.com)
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, writing for ComputerWorld : Of course, at one time, to get any work done with a computer, you first had to learn a lot, about computers, operating systems, commands and more. Eventually, "friendly" became the most important adverb in computing circles, and we've reached the point in user-friendliness that people don't even talk about it anymore. Today, Google has shown with its Chrome OS that most of us can pretty much do anything we need to do on a computer with just a web browser. But Google's path is not Microsoft's path. Instead, it's moving us first to Windows as desktop as a service (DaaS) via Microsoft Managed Desktop (MMD). This bundles Windows 10 Enterprise, Office 365 and Enterprise Mobility + Security and cloud-based system management into Microsoft 365 Enterprise.
The next step, Windows Virtual Desktop, enables companies to virtualize Windows 7 and 10, Office 365 ProPlus apps and other third-party applications on Azure-based virtual machines. If all goes well, you'll be able to subscribe to Windows Virtual Desktop this fall. Of course, Virtual Desktop is a play for business users -- for now. I expect Virtual Desktop to be offered to consumers in 2020. By 2025, Windows as an actual desktop operating system will be a niche product. Sound crazy? Uh, you do know that Microsoft already really, really wants you to "rent" Office 365 rather than buy Office 2019, don't you?
But what about games, you say? We'll always have Windows for games! Will we? Google, with its Google Stadia gaming cloud service, is betting we're ready to move our games to the cloud as well. It's no pipe dream. Valve has been doing pretty well for years now with its Steam variation on this theme. So where is all this taking us? I see a world where the PC desktop disappears for all but a few. Most of us will be writing our documents, filling out our spreadsheets and doing whatever else we now do on our PCs via cloud-based applications on smart terminals running Chrome OS or Windows Lite. If you want a "real" PC, your choices are going to be Linux or macOS.
The next step, Windows Virtual Desktop, enables companies to virtualize Windows 7 and 10, Office 365 ProPlus apps and other third-party applications on Azure-based virtual machines. If all goes well, you'll be able to subscribe to Windows Virtual Desktop this fall. Of course, Virtual Desktop is a play for business users -- for now. I expect Virtual Desktop to be offered to consumers in 2020. By 2025, Windows as an actual desktop operating system will be a niche product. Sound crazy? Uh, you do know that Microsoft already really, really wants you to "rent" Office 365 rather than buy Office 2019, don't you?
But what about games, you say? We'll always have Windows for games! Will we? Google, with its Google Stadia gaming cloud service, is betting we're ready to move our games to the cloud as well. It's no pipe dream. Valve has been doing pretty well for years now with its Steam variation on this theme. So where is all this taking us? I see a world where the PC desktop disappears for all but a few. Most of us will be writing our documents, filling out our spreadsheets and doing whatever else we now do on our PCs via cloud-based applications on smart terminals running Chrome OS or Windows Lite. If you want a "real" PC, your choices are going to be Linux or macOS.
I swear, we get these so often.. desktops are dead / desktops are dying..
Yeah yeah, sure the vast number of phone/tablet/mobile users are a significant portion of traffic.
However I think these fairly regular announcements of the death of desktop computing are ... hyperbolic "outrage bait"
There will always be a place for desktop machines.. PC gaming / VR, Music and video production/editing, development, 3d modeling/ graphic design, all these things are going to keep PCs on desktops for a long time yet IMHO
The Digital Sorceress
Sort of reminds me of Brazil, the movie, where everyone will just have a 'terminal' into some cloud.
None of us will have GP computing devices. Everything will be locked down, you'll be charged by the minute for using anything.
Not a good direction folks. Turn it around before you're locked in.
I for one am looking to return to desktop computing. I am sick of trying to wrangle all my devices and info and having to wait on slow as sin mobile.
I want a single powerful/fast desktop that can handle the workload for my household, sit off in a corner out of sight, and everything else to be a screen for it to be delivered to. No one wants to deliver this to the end user though because it means they're only buying 1 expensive system instead of multiple. I for one can't afford the latter option and don't want the headaches that come with it.
The desktop was always a stupid metaphor to sell computers to businessmen. Although an excusable one.
Actual computer users, as opposed to users of fixed-function appliances that happened to be implemented "on a computer" (cue patent jokes), always by definition needed a programmable open interface, and small modules to glue together with them.
Even professionals who were forced onto desktop systems, made their own programming environments.
Businesses made their spreadsheeds (a form of functional programming), and 3D designers/engineers had full customizable software (like Maya) with easy scriptability.
The iDiot generation was the first who had never encountered that side of things before. And they want to be at the helm of cultural development now. Precisely becuase they are so oblivious to literally all the things. So they of course declared everything not like iOS nor for consumers outdated and useless.
But anyone who wants to actually *make* anything at all with computers, *will* sooner or later long for programmability. Even if never before seen.
So Linux, the OS of actual computer users, is so successful, precisely because it's not a desktop OS.
The main problem however stands: People are more willing to pay a one time fee to own something than to add another line to a bill. This is simply a sociological and psychological phenomena, more so when Cloud Service adds ISP shenanigans into the mix which everyone is already pissed enough about because that adds another variable to a monthly bill which is also an unstable variable that the user has no control over.
This is all well and good for our generation, but in case you haven't noticed, later-day Millennials and most of Gen-Z are growing up without an ownership mindset. However much this is due to economics and however much is a self-fulfilling prophecy for making the best of a bad economy is debatable, but the fact remains that the trend is *away* from ownership and *toward* services and this will continue until interrupted (no pun intended).
Urban millennials are convincing themselves that Ubering around is better than owning a car, that subscription music services are better than buying purchase rights (let alone buying a CD), Blu-ray collections are composed of only the best-of-the-absolutely-best favorites, and "experiences" like avocado toast flights are still being pushed intra-generationally above things like investing and home ownership.
This is a not a culture that sees any need for a desktop. For most, there's no need for anything more than a Chromebook, and for a great many their needs can be met by a tablet or reliable phablet/smartphone.
Programmers and hackers in the traditional sense are a rounding error (and frankly, many young programmers today have a cloud-only mindset too). Creatives might need processing power, but they really don't... they just need good bandwidth to where the processing power is.
What killed the desktop form factor? Wi-Fi.
What killed desktop *operating systems*? 4G.
Hire a Linux system administrator, systems engineer,