Except that the persistant meme is that the console is $600 when it's really $500. Still expensive, why the greatly widespread overinflation of this figure?
It's not an "overinflation." It's the actual [announced] cost of the actual console with its full slate of features. Considering the original yakkin' by Kutaragi-san was that the PS3 would be driving two 1080p displays via two HDMI ports, it's understandable that they would consider the cheaper console at $500 to be unworthy of discussion. This is simply a continuation of the habit of only discussing the Xbox 360 console as costing $400 because the $300 version is considered "crippled" by most folks (including myself, though I prefer the term "wounded" since it can be fixed up).
Yes but with the anti-Sony stuff the posters are remarkable "on message" if you will. When everyone starts using the same terminology very suddenly it makes you wonder where that is coming from.
This can simply be chalked up to the fact that people tend to regurgitate what they read when they agree with it. Originality and critical thinking tend not to be encouraged in this virtual world of ours. Witness the moderators who moderate based on how much they agree with a post rather than how truly interesting or insightful it truly is; and witness the karma whores who are more than happy to take advantage of the phenomenon.
I have no doubt that "astroturfing" goes on. People have confessed to being paid for posting on fora, and there's no reason not to believe them because, well, it's a damned good marketing idea. It's distasteful, to be sure, but there are enough sheep around here and other places so that, done right, the process could be very effective. In this situation, however, I don't think Microsoft needs to do a damn thing. The announced pricing of the PS3 is all the reason folks need to get up in arms and post about it.
You people have got to stop talking about multi-DVD games and how that relates to the increased capacity of Blu-Ray.
1) Multi-disc games in the DVD format are rare. 2) Multi-disc games in the DVD format have sometimes been single-layer discs - possibly because of manufacturing issues or possibly because of console reliability (or lack thereof). 3) Cutscenes are going to be done within the game engine more and more as those engines advance because FMV is expensive. 4) Cutscenes tend to bore a lot of people and they really have been the primary reason for multi-DVD games. 5) Getting up once during a game to change discs shouldn't bother anyone with legs.
Blu-Ray is cool, and so is HD-DVD. I'm on Slashdot so it can be safely assumed that high tech is interesting to me, and larger storage capacities get me a little hot. That said, it's a factor that I consider all but irrelevant to console gaming at the moment.
The only one I played (because it came with a used DC I bought from a friend) was the simply awful South Park trivia game. Of course, even a really kickass OS couldn't have saved that piece of crap.
And including FUD from SEGA America's president? Yeah, that's credible. Bill Gates said that Linux is dead too, so it must be true.
If Sega was still in the business of selling consoles, I might agree with you. As it is, though, Sega is just another third-party developer trying to get by. And, by the way, they've already announced at least one PS3 exclusive that I know of: Virtua Fighter 5. Thus, they have an interest in the PS3 selling well.
For the conspiracy minded, there are a lot of negative stories floating around forums about the PS3, and Microsoft has been known to astroturf before... something to think about.
Just bringing that up tells me that you are one of the "conspiracy minded." A couple thoughts:
1) I don't think you can properly identify "astroturfing" if the issue is real. Sony's PS3 announced prices ARE high and people ARE unhappy about the situation. One could be a huge Sony fanboy and still be pissy about paying $100 more than the non-crippled Xbox 360.
2) This is the Interweb. Posters on the Interweb - including Slashdot - are usually like Mikey. They hate everything.
Don't forget that the Saturn actually did all right in Japan. That's why Sega was able to make the Dreamcast in the first place instead of moving to software only earlier. Who knows? Had the Saturn failed completely everywhere, the Dreamcast might have been an actual Microsoft/Sega collaboration instead of a Sega console with some [weak] Microsoft software on it.
I think Sony might have been willing to take a bigger loss for the sake of Blu-Ray. But, Sony has to do something of a balancing act if they want BR to have any chance at all. If they price the PS3 too aggressively they could win the console battle and lose the Blu-Ray war because other hardware manufacturers won't build Blu-Ray players if they can't make money.
Odd as it may seem, Sony needs competition in the hardware space if Blu-Ray is going to succeed as the next big format.
In a year, there will be more Blu-Ray titles on the market, players will begin to drop into the range of mainstream consumers, and the technology in the PS3 will be cheaper, allowing Sony to still position the PS3 as both a game machine and affordable blu-ray player.
Here's a flaw to your theory: In that same year, assuming HD-DVD player prices drop, and drop at a rate similar to Blu-Ray, HD-DVD players will not only be cheaper than the PS3 but will also be cheaper than the Xbox 360.
I know the gaming market is big, but it's still not near the home movie market. Those people who decide to upgrade on the home movie front are going to be looking hard at HD-DVD because it's half the cost of Blu-Ray. The PS3 might be able to provide an early-adopting gamer market for Blu-Ray, but unless they can get the cost of that tech and/or licensing down then BR in general is going to crash into niche territory.
A slightly more minor thing is that I don't believe either PS3 version has onboard decoding and 5.1 output of the new audio formats (Dolby Digital Plus, Dolby TrueHD [lossless 2-channel] and DTS-HD) to be used in Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. That's the kind of issue that could push home theater folks right over the edge, opting for an HD-DVD player because they can get all that for half the price of a similarly equipped BR offering.
In case no one has noticed the US dollar is about to fall off a cliff and the thought of affording such a lavish cell phone will be an impossibility in the near future. I suggest you slashdotters start paying more attention to what's happening in macro economics and less time on useless toys.
Amen. My advice: Empty your bank accounts and buy all the "useless toys" you want right now!
And, to AC: What fucking good would it do me to may "more attention to what's happening in macro economics"? Will the dollar magically be shored up with happy days here again if I do?
All the Sony guy is saying here is that if you want to buy the low-end player and still read CF cards from your camera a USB reader will work - it all mounts as external storage anyway.
But that's not what he said. What you say might be true (and I mentioned it myself) but you should probably dial back on your interpretation until the facts support it. USB mass storage drivers aren't a feature until they're listed as such.
I didn't say that the thing wouldn't be bought, nor that it wouldn't be desired by people. Hell, I *want* the PS3, if for no other reason than I don't like to have to pick and choose which console games I can play and which ones I can't (it's why I own all three current consoles). My point was simple that having a "reasonable" (or even "high") income doesn't mean that the PS3 isn't overpriced.
Here's my metaphor: Anyone can afford a sandwich. Heck, anyone can probably afford any sandwich that's made anywhere (perhaps not every day, but once in a while at least). If, however, the difference between a $5 sandwich and a $10 sandwich is only one extra, thin slice of roast beef, even a millionaire is going to consider the $10 sandwich overpriced. S/he might still buy the $10 sandwich because that extra slice of roast beef makes it "just right" and two sandwiches would end in wasted food, but there will be no illusions that s/he hasn't paid too much for lunch.
Not for any other console. The Gamecube's disc capacity is only 1.5GB, compared to 9.4 (or thereabouts) maximum for DVDs on the Xbox and PS2. This is why there are several multi-disc games for the Gamecube. There are a few for the PS2 (thanks to some JRPGs being more cutscene than game, but even FF X, FF X-2 and, I believe, FF XII are single-disc experiences on the PS2). As far as I know, unless there's some weird game that I've never heard of, the Xbox has zero multi-disc games.
For people with a reasonable income 600 dollars just ain't that much.
I think I have a fairly reasonable income, around $3,000/month gross (more if I work hard and ignore Slashdot;]) with no dependents, and 600 dollars is that much, especially when compared to the other two contenders. If I go out and get an Xbox 360 today it's going to cost $400. That would leave me $200 to spend on games (you know, the point of buying a game console). If I'm hyped for HD movies in one of the new formats, I can - again, today - spend $500 (for a fully functional player with digital video output) and still be able to buy at least three movies for the cost of the high-end PS3.
In short, just because you make enough money to be able to buy something doesn't mean that price is then no object. This is especially true since buying a PS3 by itself will get you nothing but a pretty box with some wires going to the TV, router/switch, and/or sound system. The PS3 won't cost just $600, nor does the Xbox 360 cost just $400. They're going to cost you $40-60 more than that just to fire up one game.
Great. You just listed three games for the PS2. Now, which multi-disc games do you have for the Xbox? The only one I own is Shenmue 2, and the extra disc contains the recap of Shenmue 1 (thus, the game is a single-disc game).
I don't doubt that there will eventually be two-disc games for the Xbox 360, at least if the FMV cutscene trend continues and the 360 gets some of that JRPG action. I guess I just don't place that big of a premium ($100-300 depending price cuts and specific console choices) on not having to get up once during a game lasting many hours to change the disc.
One thing I pointed out elsewhere, though, is that in-game cutscenes are becoming more and more the trend, and they take up a lot less space than FMV. They also cost less, and thus FMV is probably a really good place to make up for increasing development costs in the HD age.
At the same site, you can see the Sony Blu-Ray player "coming soon" for $999. I'm beginning to suspect that the PS3 will be just as bad for playing Blu-Ray movies as the PS2 was (it got better later) for playing DVD movies.
And, let's face another reality. The Toshiba HD-DVD player is the flagship HD-DVD product, the very definition of fodder for early adopters. It won't be long at all before other companies join the fray and those prices are going to come down.
I have games for the current Xbox and PS2 that span more then one DVD.
No, you don't.
I wonder how much Sony is paying for this kind of nonsense post. Between this one and the several claiming that the PS3 is a good deal because if you buy a $600 PS3 you're saving money over buying a $1,000 Blu-Ray player, someone has GOT to be making a wage...
This seems utterly bizarre. Over the course of the PS3's development, Sony has promised quite a bit, and yes they did include most of what they said (Cell, Blu Ray), but one of the biggest bits of HD. And now the president says there aren't enough TV's to warrant putting HDMI on the low end PS3?
To be fair, the low-end PS3 can still output HD via component (and probably VGA since that's a fairly simple transcode job), just like the Xbox 360. That said, you're right overall considering the PS3 was slated to have two HDMI ports, able to drive two 1920x1080p displays.
As for the flash thing, I think "dude is high." He might have had a point if he had noted that it was easy to connect a PS3 to a PC via Ethernet and transfer files (I wonder if it is) but USB?? While I'm sure a lot of folks in Japan have their PC close to their consoles (given generally smaller living spaces), that situation is relatively rare in the US. Lugging the PS3 over to a PC and then hooking it up via USB would be a pain in the tuckus for most of us. His statement in this regard also implies limited expandibility for the PS3 via the USB port since a far more natural method of doing what he suggests would be to hook up a card reader via USB to the PS3 - then again, that could be possible and the omission just the result of technical ignorance.
Either way, the "cheap" PS3 just seems like a bad deal to me...
Something to keep in mind, too, is that FMV sequences are expensive, even at lower resolutions like 640/720x480, and that they can look fantastic at those levels. It wouldn't surprise me at all if, for example, companies saved money and disc space on those items for the 360 by rendering and storing at 480p and letting the console upconvert the output to the 720p/1080i. Most wouldn't be able to tell the difference (or care to).
This of course ignores the fact that we've been getting more and more of our cutscene action rendered using the game's engine. This allows developers to use assets that are already present, saving tons of disc space. It may not be "Toy Story" quality but it can get the job done and, done right, can increase the immersion factor.
The 0s have a different smell from the 1s, so the dogs have been trained to interpret the bit patterns to know whether the DVD is pirated or legitimate.
Actually, I heard that there is a cable coming out of the dog's rectum which is connected to a small monitor, allowing officials to actually watch the pirated content the dog is smelling.
In other news, portable DVD players made in Korea can actually be powered by Kibbles'n'Bits...
I have to hand it to MS this time around. While the initial Xbox was 'meh', the 360, launched almost a full year ahead of Sony, seems to me to be on equal footing with them this time around.
Even more interesting is that one of the common comments about the Xbox from PS2 fanatics was "Of course it's more advanced, it came out a year later." If the PS3 isn't significantly better, I wonder if those same people are going to come around to the X360. For me, at least in the near-term - the next two years - PS3 isn't even an option based on [apparent] relative capabilities and the price difference. Even with HD movie playback (which could be crippled in the "cheap" PS3 if studios opt for down-rezzing on the analog outputs - Sony has said they won't do so on their movies) it's not that appealing since HD-DVD players are already here and are already equal in price to the "cheap" PS3.
It will be interesting to see where prices of standalone Blu-Ray players go over the next few months. Sony's initial offering is still listed at $1,000 on Best Buy's website (and "coming soon") while the first HD-DVD player from Toshiba is available right now at $500. If relative pricing of the two formats stays the same, Blu-Ray doesn't stand a chance, and at $500-600 the PS3 just can't help that much...
Slashdot Mirror
Except that the persistant meme is that the console is $600 when it's really $500. Still expensive, why the greatly widespread overinflation of this figure?
It's not an "overinflation." It's the actual [announced] cost of the actual console with its full slate of features. Considering the original yakkin' by Kutaragi-san was that the PS3 would be driving two 1080p displays via two HDMI ports, it's understandable that they would consider the cheaper console at $500 to be unworthy of discussion. This is simply a continuation of the habit of only discussing the Xbox 360 console as costing $400 because the $300 version is considered "crippled" by most folks (including myself, though I prefer the term "wounded" since it can be fixed up).
Yes but with the anti-Sony stuff the posters are remarkable "on message" if you will. When everyone starts using the same terminology very suddenly it makes you wonder where that is coming from.
This can simply be chalked up to the fact that people tend to regurgitate what they read when they agree with it. Originality and critical thinking tend not to be encouraged in this virtual world of ours. Witness the moderators who moderate based on how much they agree with a post rather than how truly interesting or insightful it truly is; and witness the karma whores who are more than happy to take advantage of the phenomenon.
I have no doubt that "astroturfing" goes on. People have confessed to being paid for posting on fora, and there's no reason not to believe them because, well, it's a damned good marketing idea. It's distasteful, to be sure, but there are enough sheep around here and other places so that, done right, the process could be very effective. In this situation, however, I don't think Microsoft needs to do a damn thing. The announced pricing of the PS3 is all the reason folks need to get up in arms and post about it.
You people have got to stop talking about multi-DVD games and how that relates to the increased capacity of Blu-Ray.
1) Multi-disc games in the DVD format are rare.
2) Multi-disc games in the DVD format have sometimes been single-layer discs - possibly because of manufacturing issues or possibly because of console reliability (or lack thereof).
3) Cutscenes are going to be done within the game engine more and more as those engines advance because FMV is expensive.
4) Cutscenes tend to bore a lot of people and they really have been the primary reason for multi-DVD games.
5) Getting up once during a game to change discs shouldn't bother anyone with legs.
Blu-Ray is cool, and so is HD-DVD. I'm on Slashdot so it can be safely assumed that high tech is interesting to me, and larger storage capacities get me a little hot. That said, it's a factor that I consider all but irrelevant to console gaming at the moment.
The only one I played (because it came with a used DC I bought from a friend) was the simply awful South Park trivia game. Of course, even a really kickass OS couldn't have saved that piece of crap.
And including FUD from SEGA America's president? Yeah, that's credible. Bill Gates said that Linux is dead too, so it must be true.
If Sega was still in the business of selling consoles, I might agree with you. As it is, though, Sega is just another third-party developer trying to get by. And, by the way, they've already announced at least one PS3 exclusive that I know of: Virtua Fighter 5. Thus, they have an interest in the PS3 selling well.
For the conspiracy minded, there are a lot of negative stories floating around forums about the PS3, and Microsoft has been known to astroturf before... something to think about.
Just bringing that up tells me that you are one of the "conspiracy minded." A couple thoughts:
1) I don't think you can properly identify "astroturfing" if the issue is real. Sony's PS3 announced prices ARE high and people ARE unhappy about the situation. One could be a huge Sony fanboy and still be pissy about paying $100 more than the non-crippled Xbox 360.
2) This is the Interweb. Posters on the Interweb - including Slashdot - are usually like Mikey. They hate everything.
Don't forget that the Saturn actually did all right in Japan. That's why Sega was able to make the Dreamcast in the first place instead of moving to software only earlier. Who knows? Had the Saturn failed completely everywhere, the Dreamcast might have been an actual Microsoft/Sega collaboration instead of a Sega console with some [weak] Microsoft software on it.
I think Sony might have been willing to take a bigger loss for the sake of Blu-Ray. But, Sony has to do something of a balancing act if they want BR to have any chance at all. If they price the PS3 too aggressively they could win the console battle and lose the Blu-Ray war because other hardware manufacturers won't build Blu-Ray players if they can't make money.
Odd as it may seem, Sony needs competition in the hardware space if Blu-Ray is going to succeed as the next big format.
One weekend aught be more than enough.
To watch the cutscenes? Maybe...
In a year, there will be more Blu-Ray titles on the market, players will begin to drop into the range of mainstream consumers, and the technology in the PS3 will be cheaper, allowing Sony to still position the PS3 as both a game machine and affordable blu-ray player.
Here's a flaw to your theory: In that same year, assuming HD-DVD player prices drop, and drop at a rate similar to Blu-Ray, HD-DVD players will not only be cheaper than the PS3 but will also be cheaper than the Xbox 360.
I know the gaming market is big, but it's still not near the home movie market. Those people who decide to upgrade on the home movie front are going to be looking hard at HD-DVD because it's half the cost of Blu-Ray. The PS3 might be able to provide an early-adopting gamer market for Blu-Ray, but unless they can get the cost of that tech and/or licensing down then BR in general is going to crash into niche territory.
A slightly more minor thing is that I don't believe either PS3 version has onboard decoding and 5.1 output of the new audio formats (Dolby Digital Plus, Dolby TrueHD [lossless 2-channel] and DTS-HD) to be used in Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. That's the kind of issue that could push home theater folks right over the edge, opting for an HD-DVD player because they can get all that for half the price of a similarly equipped BR offering.
Have you ever considered that maybe it was the way you were asking? Some women find notes made of pasted letters from magazines off-putting...
In case no one has noticed the US dollar is about to fall off a cliff and the thought of affording such a lavish cell phone will be an impossibility in the near future. I suggest you slashdotters start paying more attention to what's happening in macro economics and less time on useless toys.
Amen. My advice: Empty your bank accounts and buy all the "useless toys" you want right now!
And, to AC: What fucking good would it do me to may "more attention to what's happening in macro economics"? Will the dollar magically be shored up with happy days here again if I do?
Although his intent may be lost in translation.
If that's true then Krazy Ken's had the worst translators for years now. Brother needs to hook up with Nintendo's bilinguals...
All the Sony guy is saying here is that if you want to buy the low-end player and still read CF cards from your camera a USB reader will work - it all mounts as external storage anyway.
But that's not what he said. What you say might be true (and I mentioned it myself) but you should probably dial back on your interpretation until the facts support it. USB mass storage drivers aren't a feature until they're listed as such.
I didn't say that the thing wouldn't be bought, nor that it wouldn't be desired by people. Hell, I *want* the PS3, if for no other reason than I don't like to have to pick and choose which console games I can play and which ones I can't (it's why I own all three current consoles). My point was simple that having a "reasonable" (or even "high") income doesn't mean that the PS3 isn't overpriced.
Here's my metaphor: Anyone can afford a sandwich. Heck, anyone can probably afford any sandwich that's made anywhere (perhaps not every day, but once in a while at least). If, however, the difference between a $5 sandwich and a $10 sandwich is only one extra, thin slice of roast beef, even a millionaire is going to consider the $10 sandwich overpriced. S/he might still buy the $10 sandwich because that extra slice of roast beef makes it "just right" and two sandwiches would end in wasted food, but there will be no illusions that s/he hasn't paid too much for lunch.
Not for any other console. The Gamecube's disc capacity is only 1.5GB, compared to 9.4 (or thereabouts) maximum for DVDs on the Xbox and PS2. This is why there are several multi-disc games for the Gamecube. There are a few for the PS2 (thanks to some JRPGs being more cutscene than game, but even FF X, FF X-2 and, I believe, FF XII are single-disc experiences on the PS2). As far as I know, unless there's some weird game that I've never heard of, the Xbox has zero multi-disc games.
For people with a reasonable income 600 dollars just ain't that much.
;]) with no dependents, and 600 dollars is that much, especially when compared to the other two contenders. If I go out and get an Xbox 360 today it's going to cost $400. That would leave me $200 to spend on games (you know, the point of buying a game console). If I'm hyped for HD movies in one of the new formats, I can - again, today - spend $500 (for a fully functional player with digital video output) and still be able to buy at least three movies for the cost of the high-end PS3.
I think I have a fairly reasonable income, around $3,000/month gross (more if I work hard and ignore Slashdot
In short, just because you make enough money to be able to buy something doesn't mean that price is then no object. This is especially true since buying a PS3 by itself will get you nothing but a pretty box with some wires going to the TV, router/switch, and/or sound system. The PS3 won't cost just $600, nor does the Xbox 360 cost just $400. They're going to cost you $40-60 more than that just to fire up one game.
But I guess dropping the "e" off the end makes it seem more hip and cool. *shrugs*
No, it makes it easier to trademark and defend.
Great. You just listed three games for the PS2. Now, which multi-disc games do you have for the Xbox? The only one I own is Shenmue 2, and the extra disc contains the recap of Shenmue 1 (thus, the game is a single-disc game).
I don't doubt that there will eventually be two-disc games for the Xbox 360, at least if the FMV cutscene trend continues and the 360 gets some of that JRPG action. I guess I just don't place that big of a premium ($100-300 depending price cuts and specific console choices) on not having to get up once during a game lasting many hours to change the disc.
One thing I pointed out elsewhere, though, is that in-game cutscenes are becoming more and more the trend, and they take up a lot less space than FMV. They also cost less, and thus FMV is probably a really good place to make up for increasing development costs in the HD age.
At the same site, you can see the Sony Blu-Ray player "coming soon" for $999. I'm beginning to suspect that the PS3 will be just as bad for playing Blu-Ray movies as the PS2 was (it got better later) for playing DVD movies.
And, let's face another reality. The Toshiba HD-DVD player is the flagship HD-DVD product, the very definition of fodder for early adopters. It won't be long at all before other companies join the fray and those prices are going to come down.
I have games for the current Xbox and PS2 that span more then one DVD.
No, you don't.
I wonder how much Sony is paying for this kind of nonsense post. Between this one and the several claiming that the PS3 is a good deal because if you buy a $600 PS3 you're saving money over buying a $1,000 Blu-Ray player, someone has GOT to be making a wage...
This seems utterly bizarre. Over the course of the PS3's development, Sony has promised quite a bit, and yes they did include most of what they said (Cell, Blu Ray), but one of the biggest bits of HD. And now the president says there aren't enough TV's to warrant putting HDMI on the low end PS3?
To be fair, the low-end PS3 can still output HD via component (and probably VGA since that's a fairly simple transcode job), just like the Xbox 360. That said, you're right overall considering the PS3 was slated to have two HDMI ports, able to drive two 1920x1080p displays.
As for the flash thing, I think "dude is high." He might have had a point if he had noted that it was easy to connect a PS3 to a PC via Ethernet and transfer files (I wonder if it is) but USB?? While I'm sure a lot of folks in Japan have their PC close to their consoles (given generally smaller living spaces), that situation is relatively rare in the US. Lugging the PS3 over to a PC and then hooking it up via USB would be a pain in the tuckus for most of us. His statement in this regard also implies limited expandibility for the PS3 via the USB port since a far more natural method of doing what he suggests would be to hook up a card reader via USB to the PS3 - then again, that could be possible and the omission just the result of technical ignorance.
Either way, the "cheap" PS3 just seems like a bad deal to me...
Something to keep in mind, too, is that FMV sequences are expensive, even at lower resolutions like 640/720x480, and that they can look fantastic at those levels. It wouldn't surprise me at all if, for example, companies saved money and disc space on those items for the 360 by rendering and storing at 480p and letting the console upconvert the output to the 720p/1080i. Most wouldn't be able to tell the difference (or care to).
This of course ignores the fact that we've been getting more and more of our cutscene action rendered using the game's engine. This allows developers to use assets that are already present, saving tons of disc space. It may not be "Toy Story" quality but it can get the job done and, done right, can increase the immersion factor.
The 0s have a different smell from the 1s, so the dogs have been trained to interpret the bit patterns to know whether the DVD is pirated or legitimate.
Actually, I heard that there is a cable coming out of the dog's rectum which is connected to a small monitor, allowing officials to actually watch the pirated content the dog is smelling.
In other news, portable DVD players made in Korea can actually be powered by Kibbles'n'Bits...
If it goes through Customs, they can open & inspect it.
And, in a seldom-utilized provision of international law, they can then urinate on it.
I have to hand it to MS this time around. While the initial Xbox was 'meh', the 360, launched almost a full year ahead of Sony, seems to me to be on equal footing with them this time around.
Even more interesting is that one of the common comments about the Xbox from PS2 fanatics was "Of course it's more advanced, it came out a year later." If the PS3 isn't significantly better, I wonder if those same people are going to come around to the X360. For me, at least in the near-term - the next two years - PS3 isn't even an option based on [apparent] relative capabilities and the price difference. Even with HD movie playback (which could be crippled in the "cheap" PS3 if studios opt for down-rezzing on the analog outputs - Sony has said they won't do so on their movies) it's not that appealing since HD-DVD players are already here and are already equal in price to the "cheap" PS3.
It will be interesting to see where prices of standalone Blu-Ray players go over the next few months. Sony's initial offering is still listed at $1,000 on Best Buy's website (and "coming soon") while the first HD-DVD player from Toshiba is available right now at $500. If relative pricing of the two formats stays the same, Blu-Ray doesn't stand a chance, and at $500-600 the PS3 just can't help that much...