We already have the answer for semi-permanant power storage in the next ~10-20 years. Take your pick of ethanol, butanol, H2, etc. etc. etc.
If you have excess power available, start making synthetic fuel. Heck, that's what Bush was going on and on about to start with in his hydrogen ecconomy...except he didn't have the excess power.
Battery technology is still a few orders of magnitude behind molecular storage (oil for example) and, in it's current form, will never catch up. Why? Because our current molecular storage medium is combined with universally available resources (e.g. air), consumed and discarded (tailpipe) through use. Batteries OTOH are required to be entirely self-contained and nothing can be discarded along the way. Think if you had to carry your oxidizer and also contain your waste product with an internal combustion engine.
Well actually there's some fun thermodynamics laws that disagree with you.
You can't destroy energy. You can store, perhaps, it but it's still energy (unless it becomes mass! ha).
We might tie some of that energy up in creating or breaking molecular bonds but so do plants. The possible effect on a very very large scale over long term would be global cooling. If you wind up tying up enough energy in non-heat you're taking that bit out of the what heats the earth. But keep in mind the amount of EXCESS energy we've released that was stored millions or billions of years ago in fossil fuels or nuclear. We would have to store an excessive amount of solar energy just to balance what we're dumping back into the atmosphere from the distant past.
Actually you don't need super-high efficiency in converting solar to usable energy. There's a huge amount of energy hitting the ground.
Ignoring clouds, the average insolation for the Earth is approximately 250 watts per square meter (6 (kWh/m)/day) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insolation)
Based on other posts they idea microbe needs 20m acres. Let's see what solar energy that gives us.
20m acres = ~81B/m2 * 6kWh/day/m2 = 486billion kWh per day or 486,000 GWh/day = 177,390,000 GWh/year
Let me say that again: 177,390,000 GWh. In 2005 Total U.S. electricity generation was 4,054,688 GWh
Those are rough numbers but even if you lower it by HALF and then only get 10% efficiency in conversion you've still out-produced the entire USA. Of course, we'd rather dump billions upon billions into elegant solutions (oh, and the war on terror) that have produced basically nothing than actually DOING something on a noticable large scale.
It amazes me that we live in a commerce-driven society where the CEO's can essentially tank a company to make their $100mm bonuses out of pure greed and yet others cry about how the web should be re-written for the vast VAST minority of people.
And worse, it's the same gov't tards allowing the first as crying for the second. Someone kill me please.
So who wants to join me in animating goatse into movies and then naming those files after every popular movie and tossing them on P2P? Let the idiots monitoring this system enjoy their work for once...
pretty easy to pick out the person engaged in either transmitting or downloading violent scenes of rape, molestation
And this one sentence proves the whole idea is ill-concieved and been given virtually no "real like" though. Never mind that porn sites spam p2p with name-spammed files... never mind that staged 'rape' movies are rather easy to find... never mind the zillions of "15year old pron" pictures that are 18+yo models from websites... never mind that people can use code words that will completly stuff the filters.
I've got the flip side. An information security department that stifles... well almost everything and anything in the name of security.
Worse, they micro-manage and nit-pick instead of looking at the big picture. To wit: the head of information security (VP) himself goes through patching reports on DESKTOP COMPUTERS to bug the desktop team about INDIVIDUAL MACHINES that are missing patches. I'm not talking about an un-patched windows 95 box...but a XP box that's missing 10 or 15 MS patches. I'm pretty sure they'd do better working on network and server hardening.
The theme repeats in every project. Everything we do is hampered by often unreasonable security requirements. So what do we do? We pretend, fake things, and ignore them when ever we can. Why do people ignore security? Because they don't take into account the fact that people want to actually run a business and get things done...so their requirements are so extreme that they get ignored.
14 character passwords you change daily...yep, they're on a sticky. How about an 8-10 character password you only change once a year? I'd actually use something other than welcome01, welcome02, welcome03....
But hey, you know you've been somewhere a while when you have to loop from welcome99 back to 01.
Well how else do you think BB or CC makes up the margin difference when they run a TV on cut-throat sale for last-minute superbowl/holiday shoppers? Sure...here's ur $2000 TV which is going out the door with a 2% margin but you need this cable and this connector and this stand and this power filter or your picture will look like crap. Now you spent $2500 and their margin is up to 15%. Amazing eh?
Just about everyone who sells things does this. TV, cars, cable/satelite programming...the list goes on.
Really? I can't think of the last time i thought 'oh darn, i wish this $5 cable was under warranty' because I have 3 or 4 others like it in a box somewhere since they're dirt cheap.
Let's compare:
$100 for monster HDMI $5 for cheapy HDMI...order 20 = $100
Replace it every 3 months and my "cable" lasts 5 years for $100 or $20 per year. (Mind you, if you're wearing out cables like that go buy industrial. For normal "static" use a cable will rarely, if ever, fail.)
Now lets say the monster cable is 400% better and lasts a year. Free replacement but you have either shipping (+ time involved) or going back to the store (gas + time). Even ignoring "free" replacement costs your mimimum break-even is 5 years. I'm pretty sure i'll replace my TV before then anyhow and want to go for a newer standard interconnect.
Depends, fiber quality CAN matter. (i don't use fiber in my audio gear) If you're running analog over fiber it DOES matter to the same degree that you can get loss on any analog line. Cheapy fiber is just crap plastic and you can get loss on it if there's no error correction.
Damage to computer electronics cn occur at voltage below 104 or above 116
Funny, because my normal line voltage is 120v all day, every day. Your underlying point is valid though - crap in = crap out (where "in" is your mains power). Another thing many people miss when setting up anything bigger than a bose stereo + TV is ground loops. There's your whine, buzz, scrolling line on TV and so on.
Yes, you can buy a DEFECTIVE HDMI cable. One that actually works will - quite simply - work.
Second, error correction is meant to fix... errors. As long as your errors don't exceed the maximum corruption threshold it doesn't matter how many it corrects. This is basic probability and statistics. For a more empirical example - look at your good old CD. Error correction is done frequently with no data loss except in gross cases.
Digital systems have very specific signal specifications. Your data either comes across intact according to those specs or it doesn't. pass/fail. 1 or 0. There is no subjective measurement. There is no 'brighter' sound. That's the WHOLE POINT of digital.
The three second rule works great on open, empty roads. Last time I drove upstate at 5AM on a saturday I used a 15 or 30 second rule. In moderate or heavy traffic (think LA or greater NYC area) it's totally impractical. The roads don't have the capacity to give each car that much room.
Should cops give tickets to people tailgating in light traffic because they're too stupid to pass or just slow down? Yes. Should people use a 2, 3, or 15 second rule in any kind of traffic? Not if you want to get anywhere.
#2 - funny how courts are always in the sh!tty part of town, isn't it? Or how DC - our capital - was one of the worst crime zones for years on end (maybe still is?).
#3 - trafic tickets don't pay a judge's salary directly or indirectly. S/he is paid exactly the same without regard to a their verdicts. Now, this is supposed to make them impartial. Personally I think it makes them indifferent.
Actually that's not entirely true. It used to be, perhaps, but not anymore.
You can be found partially at fault if you get rear-ended. Insurance companies are less likely to do a split fault but no guarantees. In fact if you slam on your brakes for no reason crying 'squirrel' isn't always going to save you.
Yes, i welcome the flames about 'safe following distance'... because i'm sure every single solitary person on/. counts off his/her 3-4 seconds. Oh, you didn't take a driving class lately? That's the latest they reccomend...
Actually there is. Raise the speed limit. While this (in theory) raises the minimum following distance, it also serves to remove cars from the road faster (i.e. they get to their destination) thus lightening the load on the road at any given time.
Instead of 50, go 75. Your commute now takes 33% less time and the road now can, in theory, handle 33% more traffic. It's when people bunch up and start having to slow down for merging or slam on brakes for idiot drivers that you get ripples that cause actual traffic 'jams'. When the ripples start to overlap you've got a whole road that slows down. Instead of going 50 now everyone's going 25. Your commute now takes twice as long and the road can handle half as many cars. Add more cars and you slow down more...to the point of everyone crawling along in 5MPH stop-and-go traffic.
Personally, i just LOVE it when roads with dynamic speed limits LOWER the speed limit for rush hour. Then people wonder why there's always traffic.../wrists
Does anyone understand that accidents happen? Seriously...there are irresponsible people who 'watch' children by turning on the TV and go smoke crack...and then there are careful pet owners that have something unexpected happen.
Heck, your house should be properly secured against fire right? So I guess you don't need smoke alarms then.
In a perfect world...but they DO want to make their money somehow, eh?
Besides, each SIM card (each unit has one) represents a phone line which means an open, active cell line. 10 bucks a month honestly seems pretty fair given the current cellular market in the USA.
The average power draw of a house is figured around 1-2KW. Now you want to spend 8 hours (or 1/3 of a day) drawing 3-6x that figure in addition to your regular uses PER CAR (I've got 2 at home, my parents at one point with us kids there had 5). The power grid isn't some magical fairy dust that just zaps power to anywhere that needs it in any quantity at any time.
Or for the maths...
50KWh to charge your car in a give night
1-2KW draw average is 12-24KWh in a given day or 84-168KWh in a given week.
Therefore charging your car takes 2-4x more power than running your entire house for a day.
Take two cars in a house charged only once per week... 100KWh
This would essentially DOUBLE (84-168KWh vs 184-268KWh) the power usage of my house.
First off, there are significant transmission losses for electrical power. Why do you think they don't have a 'nuke farm' in the middle of no-where powering the whole US? Wiki's sources out it above 7%.
Second, how efficient do you think coal plants are? How about around 40%. You realize they provide something like 70% of our electric power...right? You lose at least 7% of that power so you're down to 37% at best.
Third, let's call EV's 90% efficient. That's the range where the latest generation of multi-phase high frequency AC motors hang out. 32%. Now factor the efficiency of your battery charger, charge and discharge loss on the pack itself, and then the inverter/controller losses to drive the motor. Let's be kind and say you're looking at an overall efficiency of 30% to the driveshaft.
30% beats the ~20% you get from gasoline engines true. However the polution that comes from a coal plant vs. a modern ICE are hugely different.
My conclusion: TODAY, AS THINGS STAND - EV's are NOT the ideal solution. Give me cheaper, efficient electrical generation...then sure. Till then no one will be tossing their old cars away en masse.
Seeing as how it's somewhere at $110 a barrel...$60 sounds like a dream come true. It would take a massive change to the global energy market to push oil back below $60 a barrel in the near future (say, 3-5 years).
Massive change would be discovery of some new, cheap, enormous oil/natural gas reserve...or a true break-throgh in some other field such as bio-fuels, solar, etc. By break-through i don't mean new 50% efficient solar cells that cost $300 per watt from a factory that can make 3KW per year total output. I mean someone developing a fast-breeding, sturdy, alge that produces significant oil or a cheap 'printable' solar cell that can be made on existing fab plants somewhere.
Time-to-market for every "break-through" we've heard about is always 5-10 years. We're finally planning on building some nuclear plants...they should be online in...oh yeah: 5-10 years. Hell, if you figured out cold fusion TOMORROW it'd still probably take at least that long for a full-scale commercial plant.
And moreso...because the "open market" drives the price up and up and up. Given the state of the US (heck, the world) we're going to continue to consume a similar amount of energy on a per-day basis unless there's a DRASTIC increase in energy price. Because of that, the market continues to creep upwards because traders know very well that the prices will be met.
Unless/until there's a substantial increase in available energy the overall trend is going to remain upwards. Why? Because it can and the people who are selling are making gobs of money from it.
Every time someone farts near a refinery or oil well, it's their excuse to bump it up another few bucks. Guess what? People pay it. Longer term (5-25 years) solutions will possibly/probably bring down oil usage but you're comparing that to people who drive up the price over the course of your cigarette break.
Haha...shareholders (the smart ones) and senior mgmt at BearSterns already made their money. Look up the bonuses their executive staff got paid LAST year and tell me again what 'price they paid'.
Oh, woe is me. I didn't get my $100MM bonus (or whatever) this year like i have for the last 5./wrists
Seriously...this isn't meant as flamebait - but more to make the point that most of the people involved in the colapse of Bear Stearns are NOT suffering greatly from their decisions. They're still going to live a lifestyle greater than the vast majority of people. This is a PROBLEM.
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We already have the answer for semi-permanant power storage in the next ~10-20 years. Take your pick of ethanol, butanol, H2, etc. etc. etc.
If you have excess power available, start making synthetic fuel. Heck, that's what Bush was going on and on about to start with in his hydrogen ecconomy...except he didn't have the excess power.
Battery technology is still a few orders of magnitude behind molecular storage (oil for example) and, in it's current form, will never catch up. Why? Because our current molecular storage medium is combined with universally available resources (e.g. air), consumed and discarded (tailpipe) through use. Batteries OTOH are required to be entirely self-contained and nothing can be discarded along the way. Think if you had to carry your oxidizer and also contain your waste product with an internal combustion engine.
Well actually there's some fun thermodynamics laws that disagree with you.
You can't destroy energy. You can store, perhaps, it but it's still energy (unless it becomes mass! ha).
We might tie some of that energy up in creating or breaking molecular bonds but so do plants. The possible effect on a very very large scale over long term would be global cooling. If you wind up tying up enough energy in non-heat you're taking that bit out of the what heats the earth. But keep in mind the amount of EXCESS energy we've released that was stored millions or billions of years ago in fossil fuels or nuclear. We would have to store an excessive amount of solar energy just to balance what we're dumping back into the atmosphere from the distant past.
Actually you don't need super-high efficiency in converting solar to usable energy. There's a huge amount of energy hitting the ground.
Ignoring clouds, the average insolation for the Earth is approximately 250 watts per square meter (6 (kWh/m)/day) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insolation)
Based on other posts they idea microbe needs 20m acres. Let's see what solar energy that gives us.
20m acres = ~81B/m2 * 6kWh/day/m2 = 486billion kWh per day or 486,000 GWh/day = 177,390,000 GWh/year
Let me say that again: 177,390,000 GWh. In 2005 Total U.S. electricity generation was 4,054,688 GWh
Those are rough numbers but even if you lower it by HALF and then only get 10% efficiency in conversion you've still out-produced the entire USA. Of course, we'd rather dump billions upon billions into elegant solutions (oh, and the war on terror) that have produced basically nothing than actually DOING something on a noticable large scale.
While the doomsayers go on and on, keep in mind a few things:
Corn-based ethanol is horribly inefficient. Of course it's going to be a huge area.
Their improved process, while requiring a large amount of land, is to provide ALL THE FUEL for transportation needs in the USA.
Anyone want to do the math on how much power solar would generate with 20 million acres?
It amazes me that we live in a commerce-driven society where the CEO's can essentially tank a company to make their $100mm bonuses out of pure greed and yet others cry about how the web should be re-written for the vast VAST minority of people.
And worse, it's the same gov't tards allowing the first as crying for the second. Someone kill me please.
So who wants to join me in animating goatse into movies and then naming those files after every popular movie and tossing them on P2P? Let the idiots monitoring this system enjoy their work for once...
And this one sentence proves the whole idea is ill-concieved and been given virtually no "real like" though. Never mind that porn sites spam p2p with name-spammed files
I've got the flip side. An information security department that stifles ... well almost everything and anything in the name of security.
Worse, they micro-manage and nit-pick instead of looking at the big picture. To wit: the head of information security (VP) himself goes through patching reports on DESKTOP COMPUTERS to bug the desktop team about INDIVIDUAL MACHINES that are missing patches. I'm not talking about an un-patched windows 95 box...but a XP box that's missing 10 or 15 MS patches. I'm pretty sure they'd do better working on network and server hardening.
The theme repeats in every project. Everything we do is hampered by often unreasonable security requirements. So what do we do? We pretend, fake things, and ignore them when ever we can. Why do people ignore security? Because they don't take into account the fact that people want to actually run a business and get things done...so their requirements are so extreme that they get ignored.
14 character passwords you change daily...yep, they're on a sticky. How about an 8-10 character password you only change once a year? I'd actually use something other than welcome01, welcome02, welcome03....
But hey, you know you've been somewhere a while when you have to loop from welcome99 back to 01.
Well how else do you think BB or CC makes up the margin difference when they run a TV on cut-throat sale for last-minute superbowl/holiday shoppers? Sure...here's ur $2000 TV which is going out the door with a 2% margin but you need this cable and this connector and this stand and this power filter or your picture will look like crap. Now you spent $2500 and their margin is up to 15%. Amazing eh?
Just about everyone who sells things does this. TV, cars, cable/satelite programming...the list goes on.
I'm still waiting for Levis do decide the name is too close to one of their product lines.
Hey, i bet mcguyver used wet clothes for conducting electricity at one point so there's potentially crossed product lines!
Really? I can't think of the last time i thought 'oh darn, i wish this $5 cable was under warranty' because I have 3 or 4 others like it in a box somewhere since they're dirt cheap.
Let's compare:
$100 for monster HDMI
$5 for cheapy HDMI...order 20 = $100
Replace it every 3 months and my "cable" lasts 5 years for $100 or $20 per year. (Mind you, if you're wearing out cables like that go buy industrial. For normal "static" use a cable will rarely, if ever, fail.)
Now lets say the monster cable is 400% better and lasts a year. Free replacement but you have either shipping (+ time involved) or going back to the store (gas + time). Even ignoring "free" replacement costs your mimimum break-even is 5 years. I'm pretty sure i'll replace my TV before then anyhow and want to go for a newer standard interconnect.
Depends, fiber quality CAN matter. (i don't use fiber in my audio gear) If you're running analog over fiber it DOES matter to the same degree that you can get loss on any analog line. Cheapy fiber is just crap plastic and you can get loss on it if there's no error correction.
Funny, because my normal line voltage is 120v all day, every day. Your underlying point is valid though - crap in = crap out (where "in" is your mains power). Another thing many people miss when setting up anything bigger than a bose stereo + TV is ground loops. There's your whine, buzz, scrolling line on TV and so on.
Agree.
Sorry, but no. On several grounds.
... errors. As long as your errors don't exceed the maximum corruption threshold it doesn't matter how many it corrects. This is basic probability and statistics. For a more empirical example - look at your good old CD. Error correction is done frequently with no data loss except in gross cases.
Yes, you can buy a DEFECTIVE HDMI cable. One that actually works will - quite simply - work.
Second, error correction is meant to fix
Digital systems have very specific signal specifications. Your data either comes across intact according to those specs or it doesn't. pass/fail. 1 or 0. There is no subjective measurement. There is no 'brighter' sound. That's the WHOLE POINT of digital.
The three second rule works great on open, empty roads. Last time I drove upstate at 5AM on a saturday I used a 15 or 30 second rule. In moderate or heavy traffic (think LA or greater NYC area) it's totally impractical. The roads don't have the capacity to give each car that much room.
Should cops give tickets to people tailgating in light traffic because they're too stupid to pass or just slow down? Yes. Should people use a 2, 3, or 15 second rule in any kind of traffic? Not if you want to get anywhere.
#2 - funny how courts are always in the sh!tty part of town, isn't it? Or how DC - our capital - was one of the worst crime zones for years on end (maybe still is?).
#3 - trafic tickets don't pay a judge's salary directly or indirectly. S/he is paid exactly the same without regard to a their verdicts. Now, this is supposed to make them impartial. Personally I think it makes them indifferent.
Actually that's not entirely true. It used to be, perhaps, but not anymore.
/. counts off his/her 3-4 seconds. Oh, you didn't take a driving class lately? That's the latest they reccomend...
You can be found partially at fault if you get rear-ended. Insurance companies are less likely to do a split fault but no guarantees. In fact if you slam on your brakes for no reason crying 'squirrel' isn't always going to save you.
Yes, i welcome the flames about 'safe following distance'... because i'm sure every single solitary person on
Actually there is. Raise the speed limit. While this (in theory) raises the minimum following distance, it also serves to remove cars from the road faster (i.e. they get to their destination) thus lightening the load on the road at any given time.
/wrists
Instead of 50, go 75. Your commute now takes 33% less time and the road now can, in theory, handle 33% more traffic. It's when people bunch up and start having to slow down for merging or slam on brakes for idiot drivers that you get ripples that cause actual traffic 'jams'. When the ripples start to overlap you've got a whole road that slows down. Instead of going 50 now everyone's going 25. Your commute now takes twice as long and the road can handle half as many cars. Add more cars and you slow down more...to the point of everyone crawling along in 5MPH stop-and-go traffic.
Personally, i just LOVE it when roads with dynamic speed limits LOWER the speed limit for rush hour. Then people wonder why there's always traffic...
Does anyone understand that accidents happen? Seriously...there are irresponsible people who 'watch' children by turning on the TV and go smoke crack...and then there are careful pet owners that have something unexpected happen.
Heck, your house should be properly secured against fire right? So I guess you don't need smoke alarms then.
Erm, you've any idea how much purebred dogs cost? Heck, even a small mutt probably EATS more than 10 bucks a month in food.
Taking it a step further, if you LOST a pet...$10 per month doesn't seem like much to *greatly* increase the chance of getting it back.
In a perfect world...but they DO want to make their money somehow, eh?
Besides, each SIM card (each unit has one) represents a phone line which means an open, active cell line. 10 bucks a month honestly seems pretty fair given the current cellular market in the USA.
And to add to that...
... 100KWh
The average power draw of a house is figured around 1-2KW. Now you want to spend 8 hours (or 1/3 of a day) drawing 3-6x that figure in addition to your regular uses PER CAR (I've got 2 at home, my parents at one point with us kids there had 5). The power grid isn't some magical fairy dust that just zaps power to anywhere that needs it in any quantity at any time.
Or for the maths...
50KWh to charge your car in a give night
1-2KW draw average is 12-24KWh in a given day or 84-168KWh in a given week.
Therefore charging your car takes 2-4x more power than running your entire house for a day.
Take two cars in a house charged only once per week
This would essentially DOUBLE (84-168KWh vs 184-268KWh) the power usage of my house.
Sorry but you missed a few important things.
First off, there are significant transmission losses for electrical power. Why do you think they don't have a 'nuke farm' in the middle of no-where powering the whole US? Wiki's sources out it above 7%.
Second, how efficient do you think coal plants are? How about around 40%. You realize they provide something like 70% of our electric power...right? You lose at least 7% of that power so you're down to 37% at best.
Third, let's call EV's 90% efficient. That's the range where the latest generation of multi-phase high frequency AC motors hang out. 32%. Now factor the efficiency of your battery charger, charge and discharge loss on the pack itself, and then the inverter/controller losses to drive the motor. Let's be kind and say you're looking at an overall efficiency of 30% to the driveshaft.
30% beats the ~20% you get from gasoline engines true. However the polution that comes from a coal plant vs. a modern ICE are hugely different.
My conclusion: TODAY, AS THINGS STAND - EV's are NOT the ideal solution. Give me cheaper, efficient electrical generation...then sure. Till then no one will be tossing their old cars away en masse.
Seeing as how it's somewhere at $110 a barrel...$60 sounds like a dream come true. It would take a massive change to the global energy market to push oil back below $60 a barrel in the near future (say, 3-5 years).
Massive change would be discovery of some new, cheap, enormous oil/natural gas reserve...or a true break-throgh in some other field such as bio-fuels, solar, etc. By break-through i don't mean new 50% efficient solar cells that cost $300 per watt from a factory that can make 3KW per year total output. I mean someone developing a fast-breeding, sturdy, alge that produces significant oil or a cheap 'printable' solar cell that can be made on existing fab plants somewhere.
Time-to-market for every "break-through" we've heard about is always 5-10 years. We're finally planning on building some nuclear plants...they should be online in...oh yeah: 5-10 years. Hell, if you figured out cold fusion TOMORROW it'd still probably take at least that long for a full-scale commercial plant.
And moreso...because the "open market" drives the price up and up and up. Given the state of the US (heck, the world) we're going to continue to consume a similar amount of energy on a per-day basis unless there's a DRASTIC increase in energy price. Because of that, the market continues to creep upwards because traders know very well that the prices will be met.
Unless/until there's a substantial increase in available energy the overall trend is going to remain upwards. Why? Because it can and the people who are selling are making gobs of money from it.
Every time someone farts near a refinery or oil well, it's their excuse to bump it up another few bucks. Guess what? People pay it. Longer term (5-25 years) solutions will possibly/probably bring down oil usage but you're comparing that to people who drive up the price over the course of your cigarette break.
Haha...shareholders (the smart ones) and senior mgmt at BearSterns already made their money. Look up the bonuses their executive staff got paid LAST year and tell me again what 'price they paid'.
/wrists
Oh, woe is me. I didn't get my $100MM bonus (or whatever) this year like i have for the last 5.
Seriously...this isn't meant as flamebait - but more to make the point that most of the people involved in the colapse of Bear Stearns are NOT suffering greatly from their decisions. They're still going to live a lifestyle greater than the vast majority of people. This is a PROBLEM.