Other resource costs in 10 years...
on
Security in Ten Years
·
· Score: 2, Interesting
may make this issue moot.
Or perhaps least turn some of us now law-abiding citizens into "criminals" (and some to "cyber-criminals") as things get more desperate and people can't make ends meet. Or, more often, see whatever dreams they may have entertained vanish in a puff of greasy black smoke.
Taking the average of the 1997, and the average of the 2007 values Jan-Aug of both years, at least in Oregon:
Cheap gas is now 2.19 times the average 1997 value. Mid is now 2.15 times the 1997 value. Premium is now 2.07 times the 1997 value.
Has your salary doubled? Is your money worth more than it was then for real things like food, housing, and transportation? Do you think it will double again?
If the existing trend continues by 2017, (and we are making the assumption that there will still be low, medium, and high grades) gasoline will for that year be at or around:
$2.85 x 2.19 = $6.23/Gal $3.00 x 2.15 = $6.44/Gal $3.08 x 2.07 = $6.40/Gal
And there's every indication that the rate of price change will probably increase - which means we're probably looking at $7.00 to 7.50/gallon rates here in the US by then.
Now, before you Europeans say, "we already pay like $8/gal, so what" - you have to understand that we here in America use our cars a whole lot more, since most of the public transport - like trains was dismantled in the 1950s, in favor of interstates. You guys may pay more, but you also don't depend on automobiles as much as we do.
And that's just one crucial resource - namely gasoline.
So, what's this have *directly* to do with computer security? Well, not a whole helluva lot, aside from the fact that you don't know what other things will cause people to want to cheat, steal, lie, etc. As these resources get scarcer and more expensive, I think the propensity of a people who were formerly in the entitlement-mode of "we can get something for nothing", are soon going to find out that isn't the case, and when they do, they're gonna want to get what they used to have, or thought they use to have at some point - either by breaking and entering, or via identity theft, etc.
I think you're always going to have the mischief-style, bored script kiddie type cyber-criminal. But I think you're gonna see an increase in the other, desperate kind due to these impending cheap-resource-scarcity issues.
The way to cut out much crime related to this, and hence make things more secure, is for local governments to come together to ensure that people have the resources to make a decent living, can afford the basics, and at least have an illusion that they can put money away for a future where it will be worth something. That is, create conditions non-conducive to the "demand" side of that sort of crime, cyber or otherwise.
that the least common denominator requests of itself. Doesn't matter what the reason is, fear of terrorism, product liability, or in the case of human biology, religious fanaticism.
Why am I not surprised that more and more complex chemistry and physics innovations now come from non-US citizens. You take away the tools for those things, and someone else who has them will gladly pick up the slack.
As an example, when we made stem cell research here in the US difficult by cutting governmental funding for it, the South Koreans seemed quit happy to pick up and run with the ball. As a result we will need to play catchup when those restrictions are eventually removed. By then, US based companies might not have the brainpower to do that. We'll need to try and import brains from elsewhere, or just write-off an entire industry. And that's just a single example among many.
These symptoms, along with the looming spectre of not-so-cheap liquid fuels are what convince me that the US will devolve into a "developing country" status within the next 10-15 years. It'll be interesting to hear the cry of anguish that the least common denominator-types let out when that day finally arrives.
At that point I'll bet that a hearty "I told you so" just won't be cutting it.
Meanwhile, those of us who want both a choice of ISP (with decent TOS), and at the same time have the benefits of fiber to the home, are basically screwed.
Of course, if they really don't disconnect the copper as a matter of policy, then there should be no reason you couldn't still have a DSL connection with your shiny happy ISP, and run services there, but at the same time use the FIOS connection to do all your pr0n downloadin'.
I've gotten plenty of those cardboard advertisements for Verizon FIOS in the mail. They normally go in the trash. From my experience, the mom-and-pop DSL ISPs offer far better terms of service than the Internet service provided by Verizon FIOS. With my DSL provider I get a static subnet, and can host services without violating anything. If you want to use FIOS you basically give up that right, and are stuck with VZ as your ISP. Unless VZ has a FIOS-based internet service with a TOS comparable to my current ISP, I have absolutely no reason to switch. Internet access via DSL is quick enough for me, and, combined with satellite (DishNet) for TV, I get a relatively complete solution.
Slashdot Mirror
may make this issue moot.
Or perhaps least turn some of us now law-abiding citizens into "criminals" (and some to "cyber-criminals") as things get more desperate and people can't make ends meet. Or, more often, see whatever dreams they may have entertained vanish in a puff of greasy black smoke.
Take one crucial resource, gasoline, for example:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/CS/FS/gas_prices.shtml
Taking the average of the 1997, and the average of the 2007 values Jan-Aug of both years, at least in Oregon:
Cheap gas is now 2.19 times the average 1997 value.
Mid is now 2.15 times the 1997 value.
Premium is now 2.07 times the 1997 value.
Has your salary doubled? Is your money worth more than it was then for real things like food, housing, and transportation? Do you think it will double again?
If the existing trend continues by 2017, (and we are making the assumption that there will still be low, medium, and high grades) gasoline will for that year be at or around:
$2.85 x 2.19 = $6.23/Gal
$3.00 x 2.15 = $6.44/Gal
$3.08 x 2.07 = $6.40/Gal
And there's every indication that the rate of price change will probably increase - which means we're probably looking at $7.00 to 7.50/gallon rates here in the US by then.
Now, before you Europeans say, "we already pay like $8/gal, so what" - you have to understand that we here in America use our cars a whole lot more, since most of the public transport - like trains was dismantled in the 1950s, in favor of interstates. You guys may pay more, but you also don't depend on automobiles as much as we do.
And that's just one crucial resource - namely gasoline.
So, what's this have *directly* to do with computer security? Well, not a whole helluva lot, aside from the fact that you don't know what other things will cause people to want to cheat, steal, lie, etc. As these resources get scarcer and more expensive, I think the propensity of a people who were formerly in the entitlement-mode of "we can get something for nothing", are soon going to find out that isn't the case, and when they do, they're gonna want to get what they used to have, or thought they use to have at some point - either by breaking and entering, or via identity theft, etc.
I think you're always going to have the mischief-style, bored script kiddie type cyber-criminal. But I think you're gonna see an increase in the other, desperate kind due to these impending cheap-resource-scarcity issues.
The way to cut out much crime related to this, and hence make things more secure, is for local governments to come together to ensure that people have the resources to make a decent living, can afford the basics, and at least have an illusion that they can put money away for a future where it will be worth something. That is, create conditions non-conducive to the "demand" side of that sort of crime, cyber or otherwise.
and starts spamming us all? It is China we're talking about here, after all.
With great justice!
Carry out military training under IT-based conditions!
Why am I not surprised that more and more complex chemistry and physics innovations now come from non-US citizens. You take away the tools for those things, and someone else who has them will gladly pick up the slack.
As an example, when we made stem cell research here in the US difficult by cutting governmental funding for it, the South Koreans seemed quit happy to pick up and run with the ball. As a result we will need to play catchup when those restrictions are eventually removed. By then, US based companies might not have the brainpower to do that. We'll need to try and import brains from elsewhere, or just write-off an entire industry. And that's just a single example among many.
These symptoms, along with the looming spectre of not-so-cheap liquid fuels are what convince me that the US will devolve into a "developing country" status within the next 10-15 years. It'll be interesting to hear the cry of anguish that the least common denominator-types let out when that day finally arrives.
At that point I'll bet that a hearty "I told you so" just won't be cutting it.
welcome our new cloned electronic overlord.
or is that 100000 Gates?
Meanwhile, those of us who want both a choice of ISP (with decent TOS), and at the same time have the benefits of fiber to the home, are basically screwed. Of course, if they really don't disconnect the copper as a matter of policy, then there should be no reason you couldn't still have a DSL connection with your shiny happy ISP, and run services there, but at the same time use the FIOS connection to do all your pr0n downloadin'.
I've gotten plenty of those cardboard advertisements for Verizon FIOS in the mail. They normally go in the trash. From my experience, the mom-and-pop DSL ISPs offer far better terms of service than the Internet service provided by Verizon FIOS. With my DSL provider I get a static subnet, and can host services without violating anything. If you want to use FIOS you basically give up that right, and are stuck with VZ as your ISP. Unless VZ has a FIOS-based internet service with a TOS comparable to my current ISP, I have absolutely no reason to switch. Internet access via DSL is quick enough for me, and, combined with satellite (DishNet) for TV, I get a relatively complete solution.
It sounds like our video "professor" is acting more like the video master. Can I get sued for saying that?