The OP was referring to the ability to build your OWN SOC. Not use something intel has made for you. If i want to take an intel CPU and include my own custom processing device on the same die, its not going to happen. With ARM, i can do this.
Exactly, mod parent up. I know several businesses here that are doing exactly this with dumb terminals. Replace dumb terminal with "employee's own iPad/netbook/etc" and i think this is where the "consumerisation of IT" is taking us. The only reason my own company isn't doing this is because we have half of our users in the middle of nowhere (mine sites) where getting a reliable 256kbit to the entire site is often a struggle.
Thats because you're running unoptimized shitty software on it. You won't need to ask web sites to re-code for mobile/arm devices - if performance is insufficient and they lose hits because performance is too bad, that will be motive enough.
And yes, trackpad works (using one here). IOS concepts coming to OS X doesn't mean its going to be a complete clone. What works will come across. What isn't suitable, won't.
I think by stating 10-15 years, you're being overly conservative. I give it 2-5 years. If someone (apple for example) releases an ARM powered laptop like the macbook air at half the price, with SSD and 3d video - people will go to the store, realise that why yes, it IS fast enough to do Facebook, email and internet browsing, and replace their old x86 machine (that is probably slower, as it runs off a mechanical disk) with it.
People are already trying to do this with tablets - the average joe doesn't WANT a computer - they just want some of the functionality that a computer provides.
Finding out what subset that is, and providing a device to do that in a reliable and maintenance free fashion is exactly what Apple attempted to do with the iPad. For some people it works. For others, not so much. It is, however a step in the right direction.
If you genuinely want a high powered desktop PC, sure, buy one. 99% of the public however, don't.
How about a 64 core ARM cpu running at 1.ghz? Because i doubt we're THAT far from this sort of device, if ARM makes inroads into the traditional computer market.
Also, don't forget, intel's 64 bit architecture was at least an order of magnitude more expensive than AMD's and had ZERO software already available. ARM certainly doesn't face that problem, its cheaper and has the app store, along with plenty of other ARM experienced coders working on non-apple platforms.
If much of the software you want to use is say... already compiled for iPad and on the app store, then this isn't the case.
Don't think apple won't pull the pin on this, I suspect we'll see an ARM powered macbook air like device (perhaps re-using the name "Macbook" or "iBook" rather than Macbook air and Macbook Pro) in the near future.
Apple are big enough to create that market, and once they do the PC market will follow suit (Windows 8 running on ARM is confirmation of that in my eyes).
Seriously, what is the reason for having a desktop ARM computer? Power consumption? I don't think there's a very large market for people who will settle for tablet-like performance in order to save a few dollars a month at most on electricity compared to existing low power processors. People with power grid problems will want something that runs on a battery anyway, and a tablet/netbook makes more sense there.
The number of iPad and netbook owners out there disagree with you.
Fact is, for non-gamers (or, hell, even people who prefer to game on other devices), an iPad is more than fast enough. In fact, hell, it has the fastest growing game market at the moment as well.
People want: low cost, low heat, durability (no fan) and no viruses (this isn't inherently an ARM benefit, but you need to throw away your software library to get here, so its a contributing factor - if you're not running your old software, your don't need compatibility with it). Conversely, there are a lot of ARM programmers out there, and the ability to run ARM software is becoming more and more attractive.
Touch and ARM have nothing to do with each other - ARM was simply the best CPU for that form factor.
I don't think we'll see ARM on the desktop though - the desktop will simply cease to exist, except in niches where people genuinely need the CPU horsepower - and even for most of them i predict that massively multi-core ARM machines will eventually get enough power for most of them too - certainly enough that its not worth running a different software platform to the rest of us.
This isn't likely to happen in the next 6-12 months, but unless intel and AMD are very careful, it is going to happen sooner or later. If apple were to release an ARM powered laptop with 1.5 times or double the current Macbook Air's battery life, they'll sell like hotcakes. And then the rest of the PC market will try and play catch up.
I think the point is this: desktop CPUs are overkill for most people now, ARM is almost more than fast enough also. Combine this with the fact that the traditional "desktop" is on life support (more and more portable machines are being sold vs desktops every year) and I see a very limited market for desktop hardware.
Why spend X on a desktop machine, when you can spend x/2 or x/3 on an ARM based machine that you can also take with you when you leave the house?
So, i don't think we'll ever see "arm on the desktop". The desktop will be phased out, and ARM's home turf, the mobile space will take over.
OK so i buy a new car, but the manufacturer has a clause in the paperwork which prevents me from suing. It catches fire and burns my family to death due to design defect.
Thats it. However the other thing is that everybody already owns media, and media generating devices like cameras that produce h.264. So, even if you get your shiny new vp8 player, how are you going to transcode all the h.264 you own into vp8, without paying for a h.264 decoder license? Never mind that quality wise, h.264 has proven to be superior.... and its... y'know.... already in that format...
So given all my media is already in h.264 when it comes off the device, what's the rationale behind getting it in webM/vp8 without any proprietary license? Never mind that h.264 is technically superior and has hardware support in all my devices, and webM is open to being shafted due to patent infringement...
When you make money by using software, driving down the cost of acquiring said software helps profits. That's where open source comes in. If you are in the business of web hosting, it makes sense to use Apache or other open source software, and maybe hire a developer or two if you need enhancements. Your competitive advantage isn't being the only company using that software, it's using it better than others; another reason to hire developers who know the software better than anyone else.
So, you're saying i need to hire developers to gain enhancements to the software that no one else has, to gain a competitive advantage?
Thanks for confirming the proprietary software business model.
Your argument is like "Apple succeeds because of their Excellent Hardware, not due to their excellent advertising."
Well, given that i've seen less apple advertising than any other hardware or software vendor, i'd say that's true. I would wager that more of apple's sales come from word of mouth (through people being happy with their products) than actual advertising.
"Open source" isn't some magical silver bullet for business strategy. Sure, it may be part of some solution, but simply open sourcing everything with no other plan is only going to make things worse for HP.
iPhone has an 89% re-purchase rate. Mac has been outgoing the PC market in general by a huge percentage every quarter for the past few years. More people are jumping switch from android phones to iPhone than jumping the other way.
whilst that might seem like fanboyism, it is reality. The problem is that a lot of companies based in Asia are attempting to copy Apple in terms of look and UI, but the underlying technology doesn't stack up.
I suspect that if apple gets too many problems with either VIA or Samsung, they'll just buy them out. They've got plenty of cash.
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Or a new "iBook" or "Macbook" (not pro/air).
The OP was referring to the ability to build your OWN SOC. Not use something intel has made for you. If i want to take an intel CPU and include my own custom processing device on the same die, its not going to happen. With ARM, i can do this.
Exactly, mod parent up. I know several businesses here that are doing exactly this with dumb terminals. Replace dumb terminal with "employee's own iPad/netbook/etc" and i think this is where the "consumerisation of IT" is taking us. The only reason my own company isn't doing this is because we have half of our users in the middle of nowhere (mine sites) where getting a reliable 256kbit to the entire site is often a struggle.
Thats because you're running unoptimized shitty software on it. You won't need to ask web sites to re-code for mobile/arm devices - if performance is insufficient and they lose hits because performance is too bad, that will be motive enough.
And yes, trackpad works (using one here). IOS concepts coming to OS X doesn't mean its going to be a complete clone. What works will come across. What isn't suitable, won't.
People are already trying to do this with tablets - the average joe doesn't WANT a computer - they just want some of the functionality that a computer provides.
Finding out what subset that is, and providing a device to do that in a reliable and maintenance free fashion is exactly what Apple attempted to do with the iPad. For some people it works. For others, not so much. It is, however a step in the right direction.
If you genuinely want a high powered desktop PC, sure, buy one. 99% of the public however, don't.
How about a 64 core ARM cpu running at 1.ghz? Because i doubt we're THAT far from this sort of device, if ARM makes inroads into the traditional computer market.
So because you can't program an arm tablet from itself, you think an ARM computer will be the same. Short sighted much?
Also, don't forget, intel's 64 bit architecture was at least an order of magnitude more expensive than AMD's and had ZERO software already available. ARM certainly doesn't face that problem, its cheaper and has the app store, along with plenty of other ARM experienced coders working on non-apple platforms.
If much of the software you want to use is say... already compiled for iPad and on the app store, then this isn't the case.
Don't think apple won't pull the pin on this, I suspect we'll see an ARM powered macbook air like device (perhaps re-using the name "Macbook" or "iBook" rather than Macbook air and Macbook Pro) in the near future.
Apple are big enough to create that market, and once they do the PC market will follow suit (Windows 8 running on ARM is confirmation of that in my eyes).
Seriously, what is the reason for having a desktop ARM computer? Power consumption? I don't think there's a very large market for people who will settle for tablet-like performance in order to save a few dollars a month at most on electricity compared to existing low power processors. People with power grid problems will want something that runs on a battery anyway, and a tablet/netbook makes more sense there.
The number of iPad and netbook owners out there disagree with you.
Fact is, for non-gamers (or, hell, even people who prefer to game on other devices), an iPad is more than fast enough. In fact, hell, it has the fastest growing game market at the moment as well.
People want: low cost, low heat, durability (no fan) and no viruses (this isn't inherently an ARM benefit, but you need to throw away your software library to get here, so its a contributing factor - if you're not running your old software, your don't need compatibility with it). Conversely, there are a lot of ARM programmers out there, and the ability to run ARM software is becoming more and more attractive.
Touch and ARM have nothing to do with each other - ARM was simply the best CPU for that form factor.
I don't think we'll see ARM on the desktop though - the desktop will simply cease to exist, except in niches where people genuinely need the CPU horsepower - and even for most of them i predict that massively multi-core ARM machines will eventually get enough power for most of them too - certainly enough that its not worth running a different software platform to the rest of us.
This isn't likely to happen in the next 6-12 months, but unless intel and AMD are very careful, it is going to happen sooner or later. If apple were to release an ARM powered laptop with 1.5 times or double the current Macbook Air's battery life, they'll sell like hotcakes. And then the rest of the PC market will try and play catch up.
Thats why the iPad is doing so well i guess.
Why not go grab an acorn A4000 or something? :D
I think the point is this: desktop CPUs are overkill for most people now, ARM is almost more than fast enough also. Combine this with the fact that the traditional "desktop" is on life support (more and more portable machines are being sold vs desktops every year) and I see a very limited market for desktop hardware.
Why spend X on a desktop machine, when you can spend x/2 or x/3 on an ARM based machine that you can also take with you when you leave the house?
So, i don't think we'll ever see "arm on the desktop". The desktop will be phased out, and ARM's home turf, the mobile space will take over.
OK so i buy a new car, but the manufacturer has a clause in the paperwork which prevents me from suing. It catches fire and burns my family to death due to design defect.
You think that will stand up in court?
Thats it. However the other thing is that everybody already owns media, and media generating devices like cameras that produce h.264. So, even if you get your shiny new vp8 player, how are you going to transcode all the h.264 you own into vp8, without paying for a h.264 decoder license? Never mind that quality wise, h.264 has proven to be superior.... and its... y'know.... already in that format...
Or they could spend the 1 million on codec development to come up with something that isn't half-assed like VP8
So given all my media is already in h.264 when it comes off the device, what's the rationale behind getting it in webM/vp8 without any proprietary license? Never mind that h.264 is technically superior and has hardware support in all my devices, and webM is open to being shafted due to patent infringement...
they invented pipes?
So, you're saying i need to hire developers to gain enhancements to the software that no one else has, to gain a competitive advantage?
Thanks for confirming the proprietary software business model.
The average end user doesn't care. They want the shiny, and open source generally still looks cobbled together from spare parts.
Well, given that i've seen less apple advertising than any other hardware or software vendor, i'd say that's true. I would wager that more of apple's sales come from word of mouth (through people being happy with their products) than actual advertising.
LOL. beaten like a red headed step child.
"Open source" isn't some magical silver bullet for business strategy. Sure, it may be part of some solution, but simply open sourcing everything with no other plan is only going to make things worse for HP.
iPhone has an 89% re-purchase rate. Mac has been outgoing the PC market in general by a huge percentage every quarter for the past few years. More people are jumping switch from android phones to iPhone than jumping the other way.
whilst that might seem like fanboyism, it is reality. The problem is that a lot of companies based in Asia are attempting to copy Apple in terms of look and UI, but the underlying technology doesn't stack up.
I suspect that if apple gets too many problems with either VIA or Samsung, they'll just buy them out. They've got plenty of cash.
That is just oracle standard operating procedure.