It's the mode of the day for pundits to jump on the bandwagon and look at the economic impact of the net, but in terms of history, we're still looking at the birth of this industry. It's too early to truly gauge the real impact.
Sure, but that's what makes this one's commentary MORE valid, not less: The fact is, some new world-changing technology arriving on the scene is not a new event, but rather a new instance of an event. And just like instances of classes, you can get an idea of the functionality of the class by looking at past instances.
Each new technological revolution follows certain themes, and analyzing them by looking at past revolutions is a sensible way to look at what's happening now.
In essence, he's saying what you just said -- that we'll have no clue what the impact is for a while. But moreover, he's contradicting the current belief that the internet boom was nothing more than a fad. Our lives, how we work and how we live, have forever been changed. The world just became a very different place; the difference between 2000 and 1990 is far greater than 1990 and 1980.
He's identified that this series of pundits all making predictions is just another part of what's occurred in past instances as well. He's not playing the role of pundit. He's playing the role of Historian.
"Monopolies run forever because they eliminate competition."
No, they all end, because acquiring a monopoly in a market is a sign of market commoditization. In other words, monopoly power is doomed to fail because their monopolies become irrelevant. The marketplace is always changing, and if you stop chasing the moving target, it doesn't matter if you're the master of your domain -- you'll be left behind.
The only monopolies that last are those that are enforced as monopolies, such as the power company.
I've been looking more closely at Microsoft as a business lately. They are in big trouble. Every major source of income they have has become commoditized -- there are several free alternatives to their OS and "Office" software packages. What's more, this software is as good, if not better, than anything Microsoft makes. Lastly, interoperable standards -- such as HTML, XML, Java, and TCP/IP -- have made what OS you use largely irrelevant for the most popular computing tasks. (And before you quote some random special-purpose app that doesn't work on BeOS or something, re-read that sentence, especially the word "popular.")
What's more, the steps they've recently taken to defend that monopoly either alienate consumers (restrictive licensing) or haven't a prayer of becoming profitable (X-box). Losing market share + lack of profitability = bad news. The whole goal of the X-box is to sell the product at a loss to get it in people's homes, and then use it as a source of other income. Good idea, except that (a) gamers are fickle, and are always looking to the new best thing, and (b) game consoles are used for games. PC's and Macs are used for surfing.
No, he's RIGHT. The antitrust case should continue, but Microsoft is in real trouble right now, and their current moves are only making things look worse.
The internet has made the OS you use irrelevant. Microsoft is pulling out all of the stops to keep this from happening. What they SHOULD be doing is pulling out the stops to find new relevance.
"I just got back from the book store to pick up 'Linux Journal' and it was funny how 'Linux Magazine' and LJ have almost identical Security Special Editions."
"of course, that would explain why humans are so insecure and unstable...."
Speak for yourself -- that's just for those of you who are made by Microsoft. We open-source humans, although lacking a user-friendly interface, are much more secure and stable, and when instabilities are encountered, patch our problems up in much less time!
I can't wait to see this done using 802.11a devices (when they arrive).:)
Last mile problem? No problem at all!:)
[For those who don't know, 802.11a is just like 802.11b, except at over 50 megabits per second.]
Re:Finally, some news from Russia
on
Sklyarov Update
·
· Score: 2
Yeah...I wonder what percentage of those folks are in because of the ill-advised "War on Drugs?"
Re:Finally, some news from Russia
on
Sklyarov Update
·
· Score: 5, Insightful
When this whole thing started, I remember thinking about this very thing...where is the outrage from the Russian government? The citizens of Russia probably don't have the same quality of information channels Westerners do, which is probably why it's taken this long for the first protests to be organized. But I seem to recall when a few Chinese-American and even Chinese nationals living in the USA were arrested for similar reasons in China, President Bush didn't hesitate to ship Colin Powell overseas to secure their release.
But then, seeing how our people have the freedom to learn and speak out against policies we disagree with, and seeing how our government works not just for citizens but for anyone who wants a piece of the pie to have our freedoms, I can't help but be thankful that I'm lucky enough to live here.
I just hope the DMCA is ditched soon enough that I won't end up changing my mind.
It's the same technology you use for your analog telephone, or that the burglar alarm companies use to learn of break-in attempts. Back in the days before the internet, it was how a business with two buildings in the same general area (but too far to walk) could keep in touch on their internal phone system.
Some of these wires probably powered the telegraph many decades ago.
I don't know where you're getting the idea that I'm BLAMING the teachers. I'm blaming the lack of qualified teachers, which is a flaw in the system, not a flaw with the teachers themselves. And I don't have any children; I was thinking more of the majority of the teachers I had when I was in school. Although I had a half dozen or so who were among the finest in America, there were more than my share in school who, at their best, simply let those of us who had desire learn what we could.
Yes, but there's nothing wrong with aiming to improve what that middle ground knows. Because the "average" is not a stupid person, just a disinterested person. And knowing how things work is interesting enough on its own merits to even people well-below average. The only reason people don't want to know is they believe a lie, that it's somehow beyond their capacity to understand.
No, this guy's right. The biggest reason for the decline in what the average person learns out of high school in this country is the decline in qualified teachers.
Or did she just forget that little bit about there being actual LEGAL uses for this technology?
Her job is to defend a troubled industry, not to be in touch with reality or concern herself with ideals. She is also very good at her job. This is good if you have money invested in one of the RIAA's member corporations, but bad if you're anyone else.
Hilary Rosen is a very intelligent and opportunistic person with a motive that is against what most of us want. But the desires of the RIAA, and the desires of independent artists (like me) and consumers (like me) are not really orthogonal. Where you, me, and Hilary disagree is how this should be done.
The overwhelming majority of us are not out to rip off our favorite artists. And the RIAA is not out to rip us off. The first thing we need to do is rid the RIAA and ourselves of these two illusions. Then, we can work on a solution that's good for everyone.
Add me to the list. The reason I use my CD-burner is because, as an artist, it gives me a cheap way to make limited numbers of CD's of my own music. I've also used it to make audio CD's of MP3's that I legally downloaded off of MP3.com for my own personal use, and to burn Red Hat ISO's. I use it for backing up the large amounts of digital data I generate as a musician, so that I don't find myself needing a new 40GB hard drive every month.
I use mine for legitimate work, thank you very much.
The business model where by music makes large amounts of money is dying.
Probably a more accurate statement is: "The business model whereby pre-recorded music makes large amounts of money is dying." In fact, this is the way things usually were; the purpose of recordings and performances were to sell sheet music; later, the recordings were used to push the performances. The music business has already reverted back to this model; that's why the RIAA is feeling threatened all of a sudden. They're defending a dying business, just like buggy whips.
You mention folks from redmond stealing Nintendo thunder. IIRC, Nintendo's north america headquarters are also located in Redmond.
Hehehehe... uh.. ah... oops.:)
Yeah uhm...well...ahh... I mean those OTHER folks in Redmond... Not the ones with a really cool console coming out in November, but the... wait a minute.
*wild-eyed look*
I CAN'T TELL THEM APART! All these corporations! They all look the same, look the same.... Can't... see... differences... Noooooo...
*Rimbo burns Republican Party membership card, starts to read "Das Kapital"*
Down with the bourgeois pigs! THE EVIL CORPORATISTS MUST FALL!!!
*shakes head*
Shit, sorry, I don't know what came over me there... *twitch, twitch*
From the rumors, I think there's a good chance Microsoft will not have every X-box available at their launch that they'd hoped, so although this allows the folks in Redmond to steal a little of Nintendo's thunder, I don't think it'll have that much effect.
On top of that, the Gamecube audience (pre-teens and older) and the X-box audience (older teens, young adults) are different, so this is more of a disappointment for that audience than it is a real problem for the GC's success.
I think the whole bit about "artist's fees" has been blown way, way out of proportion. You can still make money on MP3.com without paying a dime (through CD sales, the way I had to back when they didn't have any P4P to speak of). But it is SO EASY to meet the bare minimum. I only just meet it, but if you had any idea how little I do to draw traffic and listens to that page, you'd realize what I say is true.
"Buying CD's does put money into the artists pockets, but only a SMALL part of the total cost."
Read the thread: I was referring to MP3.com's DAM CDs, which put a large portion of the total cost directly into MY (a musician's) pocket. Moreover, DAM CD purchases on MP3.com indirectly help me (an artist) to make money in other ways on MP3.com.
This is not true for CD's you buy in a record store, but it is certainly true for DAM CD's on MP3.com.
I mean, the DMCA...it's a joke, right? I mean, all this stuff with Sklyarov, Felten, and that Norwegian kid...it's not really happening, right? I keep waiting for someone to say, "Ha ha, jokes on you!" and suddenly I wake up from the bad dream and the DMCA (Devil's Media Coercion Act) is history...
Slashdot Mirror
It's the mode of the day for pundits to jump on the bandwagon and look at the economic impact of the net, but in terms of history, we're still looking at the birth of this industry. It's too early to truly gauge the real impact.
Sure, but that's what makes this one's commentary MORE valid, not less: The fact is, some new world-changing technology arriving on the scene is not a new event, but rather a new instance of an event. And just like instances of classes, you can get an idea of the functionality of the class by looking at past instances.
Each new technological revolution follows certain themes, and analyzing them by looking at past revolutions is a sensible way to look at what's happening now.
In essence, he's saying what you just said -- that we'll have no clue what the impact is for a while. But moreover, he's contradicting the current belief that the internet boom was nothing more than a fad. Our lives, how we work and how we live, have forever been changed. The world just became a very different place; the difference between 2000 and 1990 is far greater than 1990 and 1980.
He's identified that this series of pundits all making predictions is just another part of what's occurred in past instances as well. He's not playing the role of pundit. He's playing the role of Historian.
"Monopolies run forever because they eliminate competition."
No, they all end, because acquiring a monopoly in a market is a sign of market commoditization. In other words, monopoly power is doomed to fail because their monopolies become irrelevant. The marketplace is always changing, and if you stop chasing the moving target, it doesn't matter if you're the master of your domain -- you'll be left behind.
The only monopolies that last are those that are enforced as monopolies, such as the power company.
I've been looking more closely at Microsoft as a business lately. They are in big trouble. Every major source of income they have has become commoditized -- there are several free alternatives to their OS and "Office" software packages. What's more, this software is as good, if not better, than anything Microsoft makes. Lastly, interoperable standards -- such as HTML, XML, Java, and TCP/IP -- have made what OS you use largely irrelevant for the most popular computing tasks. (And before you quote some random special-purpose app that doesn't work on BeOS or something, re-read that sentence, especially the word "popular.")
What's more, the steps they've recently taken to defend that monopoly either alienate consumers (restrictive licensing) or haven't a prayer of becoming profitable (X-box). Losing market share + lack of profitability = bad news. The whole goal of the X-box is to sell the product at a loss to get it in people's homes, and then use it as a source of other income. Good idea, except that (a) gamers are fickle, and are always looking to the new best thing, and (b) game consoles are used for games. PC's and Macs are used for surfing.
No, he's RIGHT. The antitrust case should continue, but Microsoft is in real trouble right now, and their current moves are only making things look worse.
The internet has made the OS you use irrelevant. Microsoft is pulling out all of the stops to keep this from happening. What they SHOULD be doing is pulling out the stops to find new relevance.
But you never seem to have a very visually attractive user interface.
:)
I don't know, the KDE -- the Kosmetics Disguise Effectation -- can work wonders with even the ugliest of us.
"I just got back from the book store to pick up 'Linux Journal' and it was funny how 'Linux Magazine' and LJ have almost identical Security Special Editions."
Those are two different magazines?
"of course, that would explain why humans are so insecure and unstable...."
Speak for yourself -- that's just for those of you who are made by Microsoft. We open-source humans, although lacking a user-friendly interface, are much more secure and stable, and when instabilities are encountered, patch our problems up in much less time!
And our interfaces are improving rapidly, too...
I can't wait to see this done using 802.11a devices (when they arrive). :)
:)
Last mile problem? No problem at all!
[For those who don't know, 802.11a is just like 802.11b, except at over 50 megabits per second.]
Yeah...I wonder what percentage of those folks are in because of the ill-advised "War on Drugs?"
When this whole thing started, I remember thinking about this very thing...where is the outrage from the Russian government? The citizens of Russia probably don't have the same quality of information channels Westerners do, which is probably why it's taken this long for the first protests to be organized. But I seem to recall when a few Chinese-American and even Chinese nationals living in the USA were arrested for similar reasons in China, President Bush didn't hesitate to ship Colin Powell overseas to secure their release.
But then, seeing how our people have the freedom to learn and speak out against policies we disagree with, and seeing how our government works not just for citizens but for anyone who wants a piece of the pie to have our freedoms, I can't help but be thankful that I'm lucky enough to live here.
I just hope the DMCA is ditched soon enough that I won't end up changing my mind.
It's the same technology you use for your analog telephone, or that the burglar alarm companies use to learn of break-in attempts. Back in the days before the internet, it was how a business with two buildings in the same general area (but too far to walk) could keep in touch on their internal phone system.
Some of these wires probably powered the telegraph many decades ago.
I don't know where you're getting the idea that I'm BLAMING the teachers. I'm blaming the lack of qualified teachers, which is a flaw in the system, not a flaw with the teachers themselves. And I don't have any children; I was thinking more of the majority of the teachers I had when I was in school. Although I had a half dozen or so who were among the finest in America, there were more than my share in school who, at their best, simply let those of us who had desire learn what we could.
Don't mind my friend Polyphemus here so much. He's only saying that because he's pursuing a Physics PhD himself, and wants to be paid more. :)
Yes, but there's nothing wrong with aiming to improve what that middle ground knows. Because the "average" is not a stupid person, just a disinterested person. And knowing how things work is interesting enough on its own merits to even people well-below average. The only reason people don't want to know is they believe a lie, that it's somehow beyond their capacity to understand.
No, this guy's right. The biggest reason for the decline in what the average person learns out of high school in this country is the decline in qualified teachers.
Just because the RIAA is in fact ripping us off doesn't mean that's what they've set out to do.
No, actually Mom, I'm doing research for a paper!
:D
Or did she just forget that little bit about there being actual LEGAL uses for this technology?
Her job is to defend a troubled industry, not to be in touch with reality or concern herself with ideals. She is also very good at her job. This is good if you have money invested in one of the RIAA's member corporations, but bad if you're anyone else.
Read this Wired interview with Hilary Rosen.
Hilary Rosen is a very intelligent and opportunistic person with a motive that is against what most of us want. But the desires of the RIAA, and the desires of independent artists (like me) and consumers (like me) are not really orthogonal. Where you, me, and Hilary disagree is how this should be done.
The overwhelming majority of us are not out to rip off our favorite artists. And the RIAA is not out to rip us off. The first thing we need to do is rid the RIAA and ourselves of these two illusions. Then, we can work on a solution that's good for everyone.
Add me to the list. The reason I use my CD-burner is because, as an artist, it gives me a cheap way to make limited numbers of CD's of my own music. I've also used it to make audio CD's of MP3's that I legally downloaded off of MP3.com for my own personal use, and to burn Red Hat ISO's. I use it for backing up the large amounts of digital data I generate as a musician, so that I don't find myself needing a new 40GB hard drive every month.
I use mine for legitimate work, thank you very much.
The business model where by music makes large amounts of money is dying.
Probably a more accurate statement is: "The business model whereby pre-recorded music makes large amounts of money is dying." In fact, this is the way things usually were; the purpose of recordings and performances were to sell sheet music; later, the recordings were used to push the performances. The music business has already reverted back to this model; that's why the RIAA is feeling threatened all of a sudden. They're defending a dying business, just like buggy whips.
Its not about the system, its about the titles :)
:)
...
Bring back metroid, mega man and zelda and I'll buy a gamecube
the console itself is just the theature the story is told at
True... I guess we'll all have to buy both of them!
And the final question - will anyone have spare money at the end of the year to buy new systems, or will they all fall flat?
:)
Hey, that's what the $300 tax rebate is for, remember?
If I Recall Correctly
IIRC
You mention folks from redmond stealing Nintendo thunder. IIRC, Nintendo's north america headquarters are also located in Redmond.
:)
... wait a minute.
Hehehehe... uh.. ah... oops.
Yeah uhm...well...ahh... I mean those OTHER folks in Redmond... Not the ones with a really cool console coming out in November, but the
*wild-eyed look*
I CAN'T TELL THEM APART! All these corporations! They all look the same, look the same.... Can't... see... differences... Noooooo...
*Rimbo burns Republican Party membership card, starts to read "Das Kapital"*
Down with the bourgeois pigs! THE EVIL CORPORATISTS MUST FALL!!!
*shakes head*
Shit, sorry, I don't know what came over me there... *twitch, twitch*
From the rumors, I think there's a good chance Microsoft will not have every X-box available at their launch that they'd hoped, so although this allows the folks in Redmond to steal a little of Nintendo's thunder, I don't think it'll have that much effect.
On top of that, the Gamecube audience (pre-teens and older) and the X-box audience (older teens, young adults) are different, so this is more of a disappointment for that audience than it is a real problem for the GC's success.
I think the whole bit about "artist's fees" has been blown way, way out of proportion. You can still make money on MP3.com without paying a dime (through CD sales, the way I had to back when they didn't have any P4P to speak of). But it is SO EASY to meet the bare minimum. I only just meet it, but if you had any idea how little I do to draw traffic and listens to that page, you'd realize what I say is true.
Although I'm starting to do more, and it shows.
"Buying CD's does put money into the artists pockets, but only a SMALL part of the total cost."
Read the thread: I was referring to MP3.com's DAM CDs, which put a large portion of the total cost directly into MY (a musician's) pocket. Moreover, DAM CD purchases on MP3.com indirectly help me (an artist) to make money in other ways on MP3.com.
This is not true for CD's you buy in a record store, but it is certainly true for DAM CD's on MP3.com.
For what..."Best comedy?"
I mean, the DMCA...it's a joke, right? I mean, all this stuff with Sklyarov, Felten, and that Norwegian kid...it's not really happening, right? I keep waiting for someone to say, "Ha ha, jokes on you!" and suddenly I wake up from the bad dream and the DMCA (Devil's Media Coercion Act) is history...