Re:Doomsday can come only from governments
on
Forecasting Doomsday
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· Score: 0, Flamebait
I agree with you there to a point. I'd rather see no educational mandates and no laws regarding what schools should offer or shouldn't. I'd love to see an end to public education paid for by any group bigger than the town (no more state or federal funding or mandates). You want to see education get better? Force schools to compete with one another.
If I want my kid to learn intelligent design, I'll take him to church. If I want my kid to learn about sex education, I'll sit him down and talk to him about it. If I want my kid to learn about "My Two Daddies" I'll discuss it with him. School is about Reading, Riting and Rithmetic -- and about being a responsible parent and setting aside the money to fund your own childn's education.
Re:Doomsday can come only from governments
on
Forecasting Doomsday
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· Score: 1, Interesting
I think oil is fairly cheap compared to the US dollar -- I track oil's price versus the US dollar versus the M3 money supply and oil has gone up slightly in the past year, but it is still cheaper than it has been in the past 150 years on average. Gold versus oil shows a different story (either gold is undervalued to oil or vice versa).
For the tar sands to be profitable means there has to be reason to investigate ways to take advantage of them. 50 years ago we wouldn't believe we'd have one ounce of gold buying 400 gallons of oil (as we did a year or two ago). Technology brings prices down (except in heavily regulated and taxed markets).
If we want cheap tar sand oil, we need to stop subsidizing crude oil completely. Let industry find ways to take advantage of all the oil that is out there. The price will drop. Prices always drop, except (again) when government manipulates markets and currencies.
I have a lot of faith in science, and I have even more faith in people looking to profit.
Western culture and the Western economy will collapse because our government is filthy -- they print to much money, they manipulate too many markets trying to save their cronies from doom. Heading back to the gold standard would do wonders for the first government that dumps fiat currency. Will any government do it? Not if they can help it.
Short story: bad things are happening and the lands are becoming even more desolate.
I travel the world, and I travel to many continents annually. I see how the land is becoming more viable to live on, not less. I've seen how Eritrea took a deficient desert and turned it into one of the most booming markets in the world. I've seen Dubai grow further and further into the desert and bring blooming indoor tropics to a terribly dry region. You see bad things? Show me where. Regions that are eroding were regions likely subsidized by government to get people to build on them (see: New Orleans).
The mandate of god may not be as powerful as before, but the mandate of the fist is.
Only before industrialization. Now that voluntary cooperation for mutual profit (capitalism) offers people the ability to be self sufficient, supporting warlords is too high risk and too low paying to be worthwhile. The worst warlords exist in the countries with the most tyrannical leaders.
You do know what oil is and how it's made right?
Yes, it is made the way that government tells us to make it. You can not refine oil against government regulations as you can't sell it. Oil is fine, it is plentiful. It is government and their cartels that manipulate how we use oil and energy.
Coal and fuel are subsidized for almost every industry corporation by that industry corporation's government. If the taxpayer refused to pay these subsidies, I guarantee companies would be out there looking for cheaper ways to develop energy sources.
If you look at the subsidies that you're paying today to keep us on coal and fuel, you'd be shocked.
Do companies pollute? Definitely. Yet the worst polluter is government. Who is government? The voting people. I don't vote. I am not part of the worst polluting group on this planet. Did you vote?
Billions of people won't die. Billions of people will work together in voluntary cooperation of mutual profit (capitalism).
What prevents voluntary cooperation of mutual profit? Taxes, tariffs, regulations, licensing schemes, embargoes and war. These are all government's doing.
We, the people, accept these burdens for now. As more people realize that they can do just fine without forcing anyone else to take care of them, more people will realize that they can live better by working hard with one another. This is what capitalism is about: letting everyone find their more efficient abilities, and capitalise on them for personal profit (while letting others do the same).
Government causes the problems we live with:
When there is a new disease, who is it that prevents companies from bringing the solution to market? Government. Why? To save lives? Right. It has nothing to do with money, right?
When a new company offers an old product at a cheaper price, are they allowd to sell it openly in the world? No, government tariffs and embargoes. Look at cars! If we let the steel and car industry die in America, we'd have more people working in newer more efficient markets, letting the Chinese build cars. We didn't, we embargoes and tariffs and taxed and tried to support steel and auto industries for decades (costing Americans near trillions in added costs).
When a new energy development model is invented, we can't bring it to market because of ridiculous licensing and corporate mandates -- government.
When cheap food is farmed all over the world, other countries tariff it to protect their own farmers. Look at sugar, peanuts and wheat. Taxing their own people to protect the inefficient jobs of the few -- government!
When a country wants to barter and trade with another, or when a country finds a new way to make energy for their own people, some governments step in and say no. Look at Iraq and Iran! This is government, again.
Don't blame consumers for doom and gloom outlooks, look at government for preventing the world from becoming better instantly through billions of barters of voluntary cooperation for mutual profit -- they try to stop capitalism.
Re:Doomsday can come only from governments
on
Forecasting Doomsday
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· Score: 1, Insightful
I read Diamond's book! I believe that he makes a big mistake: he equates society with government. I don't.
I believe oil will hit US$85 per barrel very soon, and then we'll see 2 decades of oil prices dropping. There is more oil still in the earth than all the oil we've taken out in history: we just need to find ways to get it out profitably. As the current oil model becomes outdated, we'll find new ones. I'm not worried. It is cheaper for me to get from A to B than any time in all of history -- this to me means that life is still getting better.
Julian Simon showed that as the populations increase, the populations live better. Look at the Chinese -- they were on the verge of collapse as a society, but it wasn't the population that was the problem, it was the communism. Government creates artificial barriers to all markets -- farming, transportation, distribution and retail. All the taxes, tariffs, subsidies, and embargoes cause the problems China saw for decades. Now that they're taking in freedom, they're living longer, better and wealthier lives. The US government is killing us, not the US consumer. If the government would butt out, we could return to the days that an honest day's work reaps and honest day's pay. We don't have that today as our currency is constantly stolen through inflation, people don't enter their own businesses due to regulations and licensing, and we're uncompetitive as we don't work hard because government provides everything, cradle to grave.
The density of people on the land is increasing, since the number of people is increasing, and the part of the land that is useful to us is decreasing (desertification, salination, erosion, pollution, etc)
Actually, I tend to disagree. I see the amount of land becoming available to us as increasing. As technological resources continue to come to fruition, you'll see more people living on ocean cruisers, you'll see more homes being built in the deserts of Arizona and New Mexico (I was just there, and one desert town is now a grass-covered urban area). You'll see more buildings moving upward, allowing more people to live in comfort. Even in the deserts of the Middle East (just outside of Dubai) I see high rises.
Go look at the early history of... anywhere
Before the printing press, yes. People lived and died based on the beliefs that their warlord was granted by God to conquer and spread their souls through rape and pillage. Now that people are a bit more intelligent, the mandate of God is not as potent. Maybe it is in the US (I'm a Christ follower and I just wrote about how Jesus was anti-government: 1 Samuel 8).
As people get more intelligent, they do realize that life is better through voluntary cooperation of mutual profit (capitalism). I don't see anyone allowing things to go to hell in a handbasket, as we've always worked together in mutual profit to make our lives better. The only time we don't is when we give government a big stick to smack us around with.
the chap who successfully predicted the USA's peak oil, and has predicted the world's peak oil soon now.
There is no peak oil. There never was, and there likely never will be. There is more oil available in the US than has every been taken out combined. Here and here.
Do I think oil will hit US$85 this year? Of course! The Fed keeps printing fake money, so all prices will rise. Oil is cheaper today than at any time in history once you factor in government printing presses and their inflation cycle. If oil is getting cheaper, it means that we aren't running out.
Doomsday can come only from governments
on
Forecasting Doomsday
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· Score: 4, Insightful
And people think us Christ followers are bonkers.
This Revenge of Gaia stuff is pure fiction -- but it does sell books. I've been called a doomer-and-gloomer for my opinions over the past 10 years. I'm an avid gold bug, I hate the idea of working as a salaried employee, and I believe in owning land both in urban areas as well as rural areas. You can buy 100 acres of land dirt cheap still in many parts of the U.S.
I don't believe we'll see a Mad Max style world. There is so much land available in the entire globe that I don't see how warlords can use the strength of weapons to take over. The reason we see "chaos" in Somalia is because there is an existing infrastructure that people want to utilize. In this Gaia-chaos vision, there wouldn't be. People who survive would not be anywhere near the billions we have today, and a family of 10 can easily survive even on a near-desert piece of property.
I don't believe we'll see the water of the world undrinkable, I don't believe we'll see the air of the world unbreathable. Humans are a minor part of the balance -- if we do something so bad that billions will perish, we won't be able to continue doing "harm" and the planet will recuperate itself -- quickly, too. The worst catastrophes that could happen would not necessarily be environmental ones but ones dealing with war. Anything we do slowly to the environment will be quickly absorbed and returned to normal -- the so called circle of life. It is the things we can do quickly that would be the most devastating. Nuclear wars come to mind as one possible catastrophe that we couldn't resolve in less than a century.
Even if we did collapse into an chaotic anarchy (opposite of the capitalist anarchy that I promote), weapons wouldn't last without an infrastructure to maintain them. Once all the bullets are expelled or all the maintenance fluids are used up, most weapons are useless. You can't fight a global war with knives, and you can defend yourself much easier in communities against warlords if you take the machine guns and flamethrowers out of the equation. War is one of the most inefficient ways to gain wealth -- it requires millions of people deciding to give up their wealth in exchange for no profitable gain. In fact, I believe war requires democracy.
I wish Julian Simon was still kicking. That guy would offer Lovelock a great debate (and likely win it, too). Simon showed that more people means more wealth, more innovation and long lives for everyone. Look at China. They were on the verge of overpopulation, but it wasn't the mass numbers that was killing them -- it was government and communism. The freer they get, the longer they live, the happier they live, and this lets them live long enough to get Parkinson's, cancers and other diseases that keep us from living forever. Communism offered them shortened lives with no reason to want to live -- freedom gives everyone a reason to work together to try to live longer together.
In the end, I see the only doomsday here being empire and government. Nuclear war won't happen any other way. I don't believe we'll ever get to the Mad Max scenario unless we allow ourselves to continue to arm the elite with weapons of mass destruction. We should work at arming our own households, investing in bountiful properties, creating communities of people who love one another but are no adverse to profit or personal gain.
The environment continues to fix itself -- yesterday's doomsdayers are silent because they were wrong. Today's will be silent tomorrow -- they'll be wrong, too.
Windows is, by far, the most insecure operating system out there. It is also the operating system that users find the easiest to use, and it is also the operating system that (in my opinion) has the most flexibility for programmers and software corporations of all sizes.
While the *nix varieties are definitely more secure (as they are now), a switch to *nix will not lead us to less spyware-ridden applications online. In fact, if Windows were to fail commercially tomorrow and everyone runs *nix, you'll see spyware applications be written for these OSes immediately.
*nix does not mean secure. It just isn't popular enough for spyware programmers to target, yet. Give it time, I think as it gains popularity, it will begin to be a target for the software companies that try to enter and dissect your life digitally.
We're geeks. We like to be ahead of the game. We like it our way, hold the ketchup and the onions, thank you very much.
In-your-face, take it or leave it TV is dead, or it should be. The horse is beaten, the flies have eaten, it's time to bury it. A la carte TV is so 90's, even if it wasn't really available. The iTunes format is cool. but it isn't quite what we need or want.
AKIMBO is cool, but I'm sure it's plagued with lame shows and whatever "it isn't open source" problems people have with it.
So the answer is where should we go next? I'd love to see viewer funded "television" -- maybe geek television at its finest. Firefly, BsG, hell, even bring back Monty Python with a newer funnier cast. Give us an option -- tell us how much it will cost, how many episodes we can assume to be paying for, ask us what video formats we'd like to see, and then do it. Start a website or a blog or whatever we need to find you. Let us pay for it, in advance, with a contract stipulating some refund if you don't meet the requirements.
I'll put up $500 of my own money, right now, for Firefly to come back. I'd pay $500 for 2 guaranteed seasons (22 episodes per season). I'd cancel cable TV in a heartbeat (I bet we're paying over $1000 a year) and put that money towards 6 or 8 good shows, a la carte. Film them in Canada, give the actors a piece of the action (call them producers, skip the unions) and let's find some good TV. I can't handle anything aimed at the mainstream (maybe L&O: CI on occasion) anymore.
There are 1 million people coming to/. this week (or more?) $50 a year per user is $50 million. This is enough to get 20 shows going for a year.
Why are we still talking about Sci-Fi again, we have money, let's use it. Any 10 of you want to match my $500 and get something started?
Hey, my investment advice is never pay more than 6 times earnings. The stock market is broken by the SEC and the IRS, anyway, even with a market crash (which we need), there isn't any way to get around the crazy regulations. All my money is in land (not housing!), gold/silver and my own businesses. If a business doesn't pay me at least a 20% dividend annually, I consider it a loser.
I've read on these forums (at last ounce a month for the past 5 years or so) all these kids with huge 401Ks and the thought that they'll retire at 45. Good luck. By the time they're 45, the currency will be so inflated that they'll need to work until 70. You're right that the wake up call is coming, but how many people believe that?
Maybe. I use my gmail address for non-personal uses, and have e-mailed the gmail team numerous times to get "licensed" by them, and they won't reply, so who knows what the situation is there:)
Everyone who is anti-Google complains about how Google should stop trying new things and stick to what they're good at. The thing about Google is that they're not really "good" at anything -- they're great at finding new markets by continuously pushing the envelope of need.
I love the Analytics idea, and I hope I get chosen. Web site performance is one of the most complex dances I've ever seen, and I believe Google may be one of a very select few companies with a group of minds that can properly understand what we think is just a simple hit count.
I'm anti-stock market, and I believe the Google is way overvalued (more realistic would be 10 times earnings and even that is too much without a reasonable dividend), but I think they have the talent pool needed to finally move beyond the desktop, the operating system and the hardware. Whoever said that information was the PC was right -- but it isn't just access to information that makes it have any value. You need to be able to aggregate, sort and display that information in an understand fashion. The hit counter is one of the most important (and overlooked) piece of information when it comes to understanding how to make your website more valuable to your users and to your investors.
If you ever feel you should have bought a specific stock, print the story up and stick it on your "Thank God I didn't buy stock" wall.
Buy a stock when it is priced at 6-8 times earnings and seems to have a productive, profitable product line that isn't a fad.
Buy a stock when the SEC and the IRS turn back regulations and taxes regarding dividends -- so you can earn an honest profit from honest work instead of earning a "profit" from selling the overpriced stock to some other sucker.
Buy a stock when the Federal Reserve lets interest rates change based on the market, not based on fantasy. Once interest rates are allowed to fluctuate freely, savings accounts will return a very nice and very safe return on your money. This is where most savings should go.
The stock market isn't for long term savings but for risk taking and profit making -- both of these things have been destroyed over the past 25 years, and if you feel your 401K and your private accounts are "safe," they're not. Give it a little more time, and everything tied to the dollar will have a very nice price soon. Including foreign stocks on any market governed by a government that invests in US dollars as part of their reserves. You can't make wealth on inflation, friends.
I run XPMCE -- yeah, yeah, it works and the WAF is 100%. We continue to try MythTV and various F/OSS programs about 3-4 times a year though.
But I think I might stop, soon. I already have a decent little file sharing network between myself and about 100 "close" friends. I think we could probably extend this to 1000 people and still keep intruders and others out. I have about a 10mbps pipe at home (beta) that should be available everywhere within a year. One of the providers wants to see it for $19.99 per month (as long as Congress stays out!)
So that leaves me with my subjust line: when will we not need a dedicated box anymore?
Bandwidth is almost free, compared to any previous bandwidth before it. 10mbps is just as fast as I can run to the video store and back (depending on the codec used and other parameters, but its close). If I keep maybe 10% of my content on my PC and share it with the 100 out there, I bet we'd have it covered pretty well even considering duplicates for backup. Maybe we need a protocol/program that takes BitTorrent and allows a network of users to safely share video/audio in a wide-area RAID configuration. The other day I lost a CD (AAC's actually, my car stereo supports it) that had about 1000 minutes of music on it. I run my AACs lower than 128kbps for the car. I had the entire set of albums downloaded from a friend in maybe an hour or so, I'd guess.
The future for me is a system similar to AKIMBO (but open source and needing very little in the way of complex hardware) -- a set top box, maybe 60-100gig hard drive, the ability to copy data to the unit from my workstation, and the ability to set it up in this wide area RAID configuration with my friends.
True "peer" to "peer" sharing of media, but no complexity needed that is the norm with an MCE -- you don't need terabytes of data, 2-4 tuner cards (my XPMCE has 4: 2 SD and 2 HD) as you can download the shows from BT or whoever else may have the data already, or even a DVD player.
What would this system be missing? (I just typed as I thought it up, FYI)
1. The Federal government has no provision in the Constitution in order to force anyone to carry ID. When I fly, I still refuse to show my ID to any government agency and the TSA couldn't do anything about it.
2. For those who intend to mention it, the commerce clause was intended to keep the STATES from hurting trade. It was never meant to allow the Federal government any power to tax, regulate, mandate or require.
3. The entire Federal government is unconstitutional. Every officer that takes an oath to uphold the Constitution has broken that oath. I believe this is possibly treason, and the penalty for treason should be public hanging if found guilty.
4. I'm finished with this mess. If you're ready to take steps to get yourself out of the authoritarian rut, cancel your bank accounts, switch from a salaried employee to a 1099 contractor, stop using credit cards and loans, sell your house and buy something without a mortgage, store your wealth in gold and silver and work to start your own company. Get out from under the hands of these bastards.
5. If the day comes that the dollar crashes, I'll be taking names for anyone who wants to toil on my land in trade for food and shelter.
Seriously, though, this is just nuts. I refuse my ID to everyone already (except private companies who request it for me to enter their private property). In Illinois we have laws requiring me to show my ID when I am pulled over for a traffic stop -- I refuse. I don't even roll the window down more than a crack. I tell the (possibly fake) officer that I refuse to speak, and if there is a problem he can call another squad car in to arrest me and charge me with a crime. This is the proper way to deal with speeding tickets (and I've been arrested on a ticket only once in a dozen times in a dozen years -- and the officer's boss let me go immediately).
Stop helping the system! Stop using their services. Just walk away. Life is much better when you're free.
Re:Spam is dead for me.
on
Spam is Dead
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· Score: 1
"Professional" doesn't mean a pretty logo or business card or domain name.
Professional means doing your job ahead of time and under budget.
No offense needed, though. Sorry.
Re:Spam is dead for me.
on
Spam is Dead
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· Score: 2, Insightful
Gmail for a business account is un-professional. If I receive an email from a gmail account expecting an email from a business I would ignore it.
We're switching 3 big companies from Exchange to gmail.
They'll save $100,000+ annually.
They'll have access from their cells.
They'll have reduced spam.
Vanity domains are a commodity for spammers. Gmail polices their network nonstop.
Professional? That title comes from doing your job ahead of time and under budget.
Re:Spam is dead for me.
on
Spam is Dead
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· Score: 0, Offtopic
I don't know how many customers bypass you because of this amateurish idea, but I know I would.
We turn away 2 out of 3 calls for our services. We're likely in the top 10 of all businesses in our market in Chicago. I personally have consulted on 60% of the high rises built in the past 5 years in the city.
I'd likely turn you away and call your competitor in a heartbeat over such a stupid statement. Our job is to save our customer a guaranteed $1.50 for every dollar they pay us. Guaranteed or I pay it. Most save $3-$4.
My customers love that I've saved my company $8000+ per year switching to gmail. One of my customers is the second biggest contractor in his city, he's switching to gmail. He'll save $45,000 a year.
It would look a lot more professional.
But I don't look professional. I wear shorts, I have rockstar hair and I'm loud." My work is why I'm hired, not my "look."
Come visit us, I'll take you out on my daily work. You'll see customers who smile when they see me or any of my employees. Why?
They save fortunes. So do I.
Re:Spam is dead for me.
on
Spam is Dead
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· Score: 3, Informative
I bet we'll see it.
Set up your MX-record to yourdomain.gmail.com. Set up POP3 & SMTP to the same. Set up A-record for mail.yourdomain.com to some gmail server's IP. Send e-mail to initialize@yourdomain.com. Wait 24 hours or less:)
Google can brand it and stick ads in the AJAX interface.
Re:Spam is dead for me.
on
Spam is Dead
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· Score: 1
E-mail should never be mission critical until the protocol "standardizes" priority return-receipts and failsafe addresses better.
I have a 1-900 number for mission critical phone calls. We charge more for e-mails sent to us than non-emergency phone calls, so my customers tend not to e-mail things.
My secrets are in my head. I don't write them down.
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I agree with you there to a point. I'd rather see no educational mandates and no laws regarding what schools should offer or shouldn't. I'd love to see an end to public education paid for by any group bigger than the town (no more state or federal funding or mandates). You want to see education get better? Force schools to compete with one another.
If I want my kid to learn intelligent design, I'll take him to church. If I want my kid to learn about sex education, I'll sit him down and talk to him about it. If I want my kid to learn about "My Two Daddies" I'll discuss it with him. School is about Reading, Riting and Rithmetic -- and about being a responsible parent and setting aside the money to fund your own childn's education.
I think oil is fairly cheap compared to the US dollar -- I track oil's price versus the US dollar versus the M3 money supply and oil has gone up slightly in the past year, but it is still cheaper than it has been in the past 150 years on average. Gold versus oil shows a different story (either gold is undervalued to oil or vice versa).
For the tar sands to be profitable means there has to be reason to investigate ways to take advantage of them. 50 years ago we wouldn't believe we'd have one ounce of gold buying 400 gallons of oil (as we did a year or two ago). Technology brings prices down (except in heavily regulated and taxed markets).
If we want cheap tar sand oil, we need to stop subsidizing crude oil completely. Let industry find ways to take advantage of all the oil that is out there. The price will drop. Prices always drop, except (again) when government manipulates markets and currencies.
I have a lot of faith in science, and I have even more faith in people looking to profit.
Western culture and the Western economy will collapse because our government is filthy -- they print to much money, they manipulate too many markets trying to save their cronies from doom. Heading back to the gold standard would do wonders for the first government that dumps fiat currency. Will any government do it? Not if they can help it.
Short story: bad things are happening and the lands are becoming even more desolate.
I travel the world, and I travel to many continents annually. I see how the land is becoming more viable to live on, not less. I've seen how Eritrea took a deficient desert and turned it into one of the most booming markets in the world. I've seen Dubai grow further and further into the desert and bring blooming indoor tropics to a terribly dry region. You see bad things? Show me where. Regions that are eroding were regions likely subsidized by government to get people to build on them (see: New Orleans).
The mandate of god may not be as powerful as before, but the mandate of the fist is.
Only before industrialization. Now that voluntary cooperation for mutual profit (capitalism) offers people the ability to be self sufficient, supporting warlords is too high risk and too low paying to be worthwhile. The worst warlords exist in the countries with the most tyrannical leaders.
You do know what oil is and how it's made right?
Yes, it is made the way that government tells us to make it. You can not refine oil against government regulations as you can't sell it. Oil is fine, it is plentiful. It is government and their cartels that manipulate how we use oil and energy.
Coal and fuel are subsidized for almost every industry corporation by that industry corporation's government. If the taxpayer refused to pay these subsidies, I guarantee companies would be out there looking for cheaper ways to develop energy sources.
If you look at the subsidies that you're paying today to keep us on coal and fuel, you'd be shocked.
Do companies pollute? Definitely. Yet the worst polluter is government. Who is government? The voting people. I don't vote. I am not part of the worst polluting group on this planet. Did you vote?
Billions of people won't die. Billions of people will work together in voluntary cooperation of mutual profit (capitalism).
What prevents voluntary cooperation of mutual profit? Taxes, tariffs, regulations, licensing schemes, embargoes and war. These are all government's doing.
We, the people, accept these burdens for now. As more people realize that they can do just fine without forcing anyone else to take care of them, more people will realize that they can live better by working hard with one another. This is what capitalism is about: letting everyone find their more efficient abilities, and capitalise on them for personal profit (while letting others do the same).
Government causes the problems we live with:
When there is a new disease, who is it that prevents companies from bringing the solution to market? Government. Why? To save lives? Right. It has nothing to do with money, right?
When a new company offers an old product at a cheaper price, are they allowd to sell it openly in the world? No, government tariffs and embargoes. Look at cars! If we let the steel and car industry die in America, we'd have more people working in newer more efficient markets, letting the Chinese build cars. We didn't, we embargoes and tariffs and taxed and tried to support steel and auto industries for decades (costing Americans near trillions in added costs).
When a new energy development model is invented, we can't bring it to market because of ridiculous licensing and corporate mandates -- government.
When cheap food is farmed all over the world, other countries tariff it to protect their own farmers. Look at sugar, peanuts and wheat. Taxing their own people to protect the inefficient jobs of the few -- government!
When a country wants to barter and trade with another, or when a country finds a new way to make energy for their own people, some governments step in and say no. Look at Iraq and Iran! This is government, again.
Don't blame consumers for doom and gloom outlooks, look at government for preventing the world from becoming better instantly through billions of barters of voluntary cooperation for mutual profit -- they try to stop capitalism.
I read Diamond's book! I believe that he makes a big mistake: he equates society with government. I don't.
I believe oil will hit US$85 per barrel very soon, and then we'll see 2 decades of oil prices dropping. There is more oil still in the earth than all the oil we've taken out in history: we just need to find ways to get it out profitably. As the current oil model becomes outdated, we'll find new ones. I'm not worried. It is cheaper for me to get from A to B than any time in all of history -- this to me means that life is still getting better.
Julian Simon showed that as the populations increase, the populations live better. Look at the Chinese -- they were on the verge of collapse as a society, but it wasn't the population that was the problem, it was the communism. Government creates artificial barriers to all markets -- farming, transportation, distribution and retail. All the taxes, tariffs, subsidies, and embargoes cause the problems China saw for decades. Now that they're taking in freedom, they're living longer, better and wealthier lives. The US government is killing us, not the US consumer. If the government would butt out, we could return to the days that an honest day's work reaps and honest day's pay. We don't have that today as our currency is constantly stolen through inflation, people don't enter their own businesses due to regulations and licensing, and we're uncompetitive as we don't work hard because government provides everything, cradle to grave.
The density of people on the land is increasing, since the number of people is increasing, and the part of the land that is useful to us is decreasing (desertification, salination, erosion, pollution, etc)
... anywhere
Actually, I tend to disagree. I see the amount of land becoming available to us as increasing. As technological resources continue to come to fruition, you'll see more people living on ocean cruisers, you'll see more homes being built in the deserts of Arizona and New Mexico (I was just there, and one desert town is now a grass-covered urban area). You'll see more buildings moving upward, allowing more people to live in comfort. Even in the deserts of the Middle East (just outside of Dubai) I see high rises.
Go look at the early history of
Before the printing press, yes. People lived and died based on the beliefs that their warlord was granted by God to conquer and spread their souls through rape and pillage. Now that people are a bit more intelligent, the mandate of God is not as potent. Maybe it is in the US (I'm a Christ follower and I just wrote about how Jesus was anti-government: 1 Samuel 8).
As people get more intelligent, they do realize that life is better through voluntary cooperation of mutual profit (capitalism). I don't see anyone allowing things to go to hell in a handbasket, as we've always worked together in mutual profit to make our lives better. The only time we don't is when we give government a big stick to smack us around with.
the chap who successfully predicted the USA's peak oil, and has predicted the world's peak oil soon now.
There is no peak oil. There never was, and there likely never will be. There is more oil available in the US than has every been taken out combined. Here and here.
Do I think oil will hit US$85 this year? Of course! The Fed keeps printing fake money, so all prices will rise. Oil is cheaper today than at any time in history once you factor in government printing presses and their inflation cycle. If oil is getting cheaper, it means that we aren't running out.
And people think us Christ followers are bonkers.
This Revenge of Gaia stuff is pure fiction -- but it does sell books. I've been called a doomer-and-gloomer for my opinions over the past 10 years. I'm an avid gold bug, I hate the idea of working as a salaried employee, and I believe in owning land both in urban areas as well as rural areas. You can buy 100 acres of land dirt cheap still in many parts of the U.S.
I don't believe we'll see a Mad Max style world. There is so much land available in the entire globe that I don't see how warlords can use the strength of weapons to take over. The reason we see "chaos" in Somalia is because there is an existing infrastructure that people want to utilize. In this Gaia-chaos vision, there wouldn't be. People who survive would not be anywhere near the billions we have today, and a family of 10 can easily survive even on a near-desert piece of property.
I don't believe we'll see the water of the world undrinkable, I don't believe we'll see the air of the world unbreathable. Humans are a minor part of the balance -- if we do something so bad that billions will perish, we won't be able to continue doing "harm" and the planet will recuperate itself -- quickly, too. The worst catastrophes that could happen would not necessarily be environmental ones but ones dealing with war. Anything we do slowly to the environment will be quickly absorbed and returned to normal -- the so called circle of life. It is the things we can do quickly that would be the most devastating. Nuclear wars come to mind as one possible catastrophe that we couldn't resolve in less than a century.
Even if we did collapse into an chaotic anarchy (opposite of the capitalist anarchy that I promote), weapons wouldn't last without an infrastructure to maintain them. Once all the bullets are expelled or all the maintenance fluids are used up, most weapons are useless. You can't fight a global war with knives, and you can defend yourself much easier in communities against warlords if you take the machine guns and flamethrowers out of the equation. War is one of the most inefficient ways to gain wealth -- it requires millions of people deciding to give up their wealth in exchange for no profitable gain. In fact, I believe war requires democracy.
I wish Julian Simon was still kicking. That guy would offer Lovelock a great debate (and likely win it, too). Simon showed that more people means more wealth, more innovation and long lives for everyone. Look at China. They were on the verge of overpopulation, but it wasn't the mass numbers that was killing them -- it was government and communism. The freer they get, the longer they live, the happier they live, and this lets them live long enough to get Parkinson's, cancers and other diseases that keep us from living forever. Communism offered them shortened lives with no reason to want to live -- freedom gives everyone a reason to work together to try to live longer together.
In the end, I see the only doomsday here being empire and government. Nuclear war won't happen any other way. I don't believe we'll ever get to the Mad Max scenario unless we allow ourselves to continue to arm the elite with weapons of mass destruction. We should work at arming our own households, investing in bountiful properties, creating communities of people who love one another but are no adverse to profit or personal gain.
The environment continues to fix itself -- yesterday's doomsdayers are silent because they were wrong. Today's will be silent tomorrow -- they'll be wrong, too.
A bigger growth market is, by far, offering a version for Java-based phones (e.g. Opera Mini) and for Pocket PCs.
I know Mac users are desiring an official release, but will Macs outnumber phones and PDAs?
I disagree.
Windows is, by far, the most insecure operating system out there. It is also the operating system that users find the easiest to use, and it is also the operating system that (in my opinion) has the most flexibility for programmers and software corporations of all sizes.
While the *nix varieties are definitely more secure (as they are now), a switch to *nix will not lead us to less spyware-ridden applications online. In fact, if Windows were to fail commercially tomorrow and everyone runs *nix, you'll see spyware applications be written for these OSes immediately.
*nix does not mean secure. It just isn't popular enough for spyware programmers to target, yet. Give it time, I think as it gains popularity, it will begin to be a target for the software companies that try to enter and dissect your life digitally.
Nice!
:)
Take the profits, pay taxes, then go and pay off all your credit card debt and never touch a loan again
I knew that would get someone's attention!
I think we need to see this one go away.
/. this week (or more?) $50 a year per user is $50 million. This is enough to get 20 shows going for a year.
We're geeks. We like to be ahead of the game. We like it our way, hold the ketchup and the onions, thank you very much.
In-your-face, take it or leave it TV is dead, or it should be. The horse is beaten, the flies have eaten, it's time to bury it. A la carte TV is so 90's, even if it wasn't really available. The iTunes format is cool. but it isn't quite what we need or want.
AKIMBO is cool, but I'm sure it's plagued with lame shows and whatever "it isn't open source" problems people have with it.
So the answer is where should we go next? I'd love to see viewer funded "television" -- maybe geek television at its finest. Firefly, BsG, hell, even bring back Monty Python with a newer funnier cast. Give us an option -- tell us how much it will cost, how many episodes we can assume to be paying for, ask us what video formats we'd like to see, and then do it. Start a website or a blog or whatever we need to find you. Let us pay for it, in advance, with a contract stipulating some refund if you don't meet the requirements.
I'll put up $500 of my own money, right now, for Firefly to come back. I'd pay $500 for 2 guaranteed seasons (22 episodes per season). I'd cancel cable TV in a heartbeat (I bet we're paying over $1000 a year) and put that money towards 6 or 8 good shows, a la carte. Film them in Canada, give the actors a piece of the action (call them producers, skip the unions) and let's find some good TV. I can't handle anything aimed at the mainstream (maybe L&O: CI on occasion) anymore.
There are 1 million people coming to
Why are we still talking about Sci-Fi again, we have money, let's use it. Any 10 of you want to match my $500 and get something started?
Hey, my investment advice is never pay more than 6 times earnings. The stock market is broken by the SEC and the IRS, anyway, even with a market crash (which we need), there isn't any way to get around the crazy regulations. All my money is in land (not housing!), gold/silver and my own businesses. If a business doesn't pay me at least a 20% dividend annually, I consider it a loser.
I've read on these forums (at last ounce a month for the past 5 years or so) all these kids with huge 401Ks and the thought that they'll retire at 45. Good luck. By the time they're 45, the currency will be so inflated that they'll need to work until 70. You're right that the wake up call is coming, but how many people believe that?
Maybe. I use my gmail address for non-personal uses, and have e-mailed the gmail team numerous times to get "licensed" by them, and they won't reply, so who knows what the situation is there :)
Everyone who is anti-Google complains about how Google should stop trying new things and stick to what they're good at. The thing about Google is that they're not really "good" at anything -- they're great at finding new markets by continuously pushing the envelope of need.
I love the Analytics idea, and I hope I get chosen. Web site performance is one of the most complex dances I've ever seen, and I believe Google may be one of a very select few companies with a group of minds that can properly understand what we think is just a simple hit count.
I'm anti-stock market, and I believe the Google is way overvalued (more realistic would be 10 times earnings and even that is too much without a reasonable dividend), but I think they have the talent pool needed to finally move beyond the desktop, the operating system and the hardware. Whoever said that information was the PC was right -- but it isn't just access to information that makes it have any value. You need to be able to aggregate, sort and display that information in an understand fashion. The hit counter is one of the most important (and overlooked) piece of information when it comes to understanding how to make your website more valuable to your users and to your investors.
If you ever feel you should have bought a specific stock, print the story up and stick it on your "Thank God I didn't buy stock" wall.
Buy a stock when it is priced at 6-8 times earnings and seems to have a productive, profitable product line that isn't a fad.
Buy a stock when the SEC and the IRS turn back regulations and taxes regarding dividends -- so you can earn an honest profit from honest work instead of earning a "profit" from selling the overpriced stock to some other sucker.
Buy a stock when the Federal Reserve lets interest rates change based on the market, not based on fantasy. Once interest rates are allowed to fluctuate freely, savings accounts will return a very nice and very safe return on your money. This is where most savings should go.
The stock market isn't for long term savings but for risk taking and profit making -- both of these things have been destroyed over the past 25 years, and if you feel your 401K and your private accounts are "safe," they're not. Give it a little more time, and everything tied to the dollar will have a very nice price soon. Including foreign stocks on any market governed by a government that invests in US dollars as part of their reserves. You can't make wealth on inflation, friends.
I run XPMCE -- yeah, yeah, it works and the WAF is 100%. We continue to try MythTV and various F/OSS programs about 3-4 times a year though.
But I think I might stop, soon. I already have a decent little file sharing network between myself and about 100 "close" friends. I think we could probably extend this to 1000 people and still keep intruders and others out. I have about a 10mbps pipe at home (beta) that should be available everywhere within a year. One of the providers wants to see it for $19.99 per month (as long as Congress stays out!)
So that leaves me with my subjust line: when will we not need a dedicated box anymore?
Bandwidth is almost free, compared to any previous bandwidth before it. 10mbps is just as fast as I can run to the video store and back (depending on the codec used and other parameters, but its close). If I keep maybe 10% of my content on my PC and share it with the 100 out there, I bet we'd have it covered pretty well even considering duplicates for backup. Maybe we need a protocol/program that takes BitTorrent and allows a network of users to safely share video/audio in a wide-area RAID configuration. The other day I lost a CD (AAC's actually, my car stereo supports it) that had about 1000 minutes of music on it. I run my AACs lower than 128kbps for the car. I had the entire set of albums downloaded from a friend in maybe an hour or so, I'd guess.
The future for me is a system similar to AKIMBO (but open source and needing very little in the way of complex hardware) -- a set top box, maybe 60-100gig hard drive, the ability to copy data to the unit from my workstation, and the ability to set it up in this wide area RAID configuration with my friends.
True "peer" to "peer" sharing of media, but no complexity needed that is the norm with an MCE -- you don't need terabytes of data, 2-4 tuner cards (my XPMCE has 4: 2 SD and 2 HD) as you can download the shows from BT or whoever else may have the data already, or even a DVD player.
What would this system be missing? (I just typed as I thought it up, FYI)
1. The Federal government has no provision in the Constitution in order to force anyone to carry ID. When I fly, I still refuse to show my ID to any government agency and the TSA couldn't do anything about it.
2. For those who intend to mention it, the commerce clause was intended to keep the STATES from hurting trade. It was never meant to allow the Federal government any power to tax, regulate, mandate or require.
3. The entire Federal government is unconstitutional. Every officer that takes an oath to uphold the Constitution has broken that oath. I believe this is possibly treason, and the penalty for treason should be public hanging if found guilty.
4. I'm finished with this mess. If you're ready to take steps to get yourself out of the authoritarian rut, cancel your bank accounts, switch from a salaried employee to a 1099 contractor, stop using credit cards and loans, sell your house and buy something without a mortgage, store your wealth in gold and silver and work to start your own company. Get out from under the hands of these bastards.
5. If the day comes that the dollar crashes, I'll be taking names for anyone who wants to toil on my land in trade for food and shelter.
Seriously, though, this is just nuts. I refuse my ID to everyone already (except private companies who request it for me to enter their private property). In Illinois we have laws requiring me to show my ID when I am pulled over for a traffic stop -- I refuse. I don't even roll the window down more than a crack. I tell the (possibly fake) officer that I refuse to speak, and if there is a problem he can call another squad car in to arrest me and charge me with a crime. This is the proper way to deal with speeding tickets (and I've been arrested on a ticket only once in a dozen times in a dozen years -- and the officer's boss let me go immediately).
Stop helping the system! Stop using their services. Just walk away. Life is much better when you're free.
"Professional" doesn't mean a pretty logo or business card or domain name.
Professional means doing your job ahead of time and under budget.
No offense needed, though. Sorry.
Gmail for a business account is un-professional. If I receive an email from a gmail account expecting an email from a business I would ignore it.
We're switching 3 big companies from Exchange to gmail.
They'll save $100,000+ annually.
They'll have access from their cells.
They'll have reduced spam.
Vanity domains are a commodity for spammers. Gmail polices their network nonstop.
Professional? That title comes from doing your job ahead of time and under budget.
I don't know how many customers bypass you because of this amateurish idea, but I know I would.
We turn away 2 out of 3 calls for our services. We're likely in the top 10 of all businesses in our market in Chicago. I personally have consulted on 60% of the high rises built in the past 5 years in the city.
I'd likely turn you away and call your competitor in a heartbeat over such a stupid statement. Our job is to save our customer a guaranteed $1.50 for every dollar they pay us. Guaranteed or I pay it. Most save $3-$4.
My customers love that I've saved my company $8000+ per year switching to gmail. One of my customers is the second biggest contractor in his city, he's switching to gmail. He'll save $45,000 a year.
It would look a lot more professional.
But I don't look professional. I wear shorts, I have rockstar hair and I'm loud." My work is why I'm hired, not my "look."
Come visit us, I'll take you out on my daily work. You'll see customers who smile when they see me or any of my employees. Why?
They save fortunes. So do I.
I bet we'll see it.
:)
Set up your MX-record to yourdomain.gmail.com. Set up POP3 & SMTP to the same. Set up A-record for mail.yourdomain.com to some gmail server's IP. Send e-mail to initialize@yourdomain.com. Wait 24 hours or less
Google can brand it and stick ads in the AJAX interface.
E-mail should never be mission critical until the protocol "standardizes" priority return-receipts and failsafe addresses better.
I have a 1-900 number for mission critical phone calls. We charge more for e-mails sent to us than non-emergency phone calls, so my customers tend not to e-mail things.
My secrets are in my head. I don't write them down.
I've offered to pay Google $10/month for better uptime.
They do a better job as they aggregate "Report Spam" into fighting future spam. Better for me and millions of others.