"would mean around a 50% chance of a rise in global average temperature of more than 4C by 2100," he said.'"
Is there any chance we could see the error bar on that 4C temperature change... With that long a prediction I suspect the correct scientific representation would be
4C +- 100C (Remember, that is a 90 year extrapolation!)
Plus or minus 100C ?
not to clear on the idea of phase change and latent heat, are you ?
Luckily, due to the European CO2 emission certificate trade, the overall European emission of CO2 won't go up at all.
They will simply be reduced elsewhere.
In France?
And those gas power plants 1) can be run with biogas 2) are only a temporary solution to give wind and solar energy time to develop and are recognized as such.
Do you seriously believe that enough biogas can be generated to replace the quantities of natural gas currently imported? 94e9 m^3 ?
Germany already dedicates 18% of it's agricultural land to biomass production for energy (2.14 million hectares). It may increase this to 4 million hectares. What are they going to eat?
Reading the Google translation of that link it seems to say that with the 8 old nuke plants Germany has 0% overcapacity. (The usual recommendation is to have 10% to allow for plant failures).
Take out the other nukes and...
Luckily there is a solution: "The end of 2012, the power supply to grow rather than shrink. Bis dahin gehen viele neue Gas- und Kohlekraftwerke ans Netz, und nur wenige werden abgeschaltet. Until then, many new gas and coal power plants go online, and few are turned off. In den darauffolgenden Jahren gehen zusehends alte Kohlekraftwerke vom Netz. In the following years, increasingly old coal plants go by the network. Als Ausgleich müssen neue Gaskraftwerke gebaut werden. To compensate, new gas power plants are built."
Germany produces 27% of its electricity from nukes, 17% from renewables the rest is fossil. approx 3% is exported.
If you zap the nukes you need to more than double your renewables just to avoid increasing co2 output. And most of your existing renewables is hydro, not wind - you can't double hydro, there aren't the sites available.
So shutting down all nuclear reactors would result in an undercapacity, but less than the 20% you've come up with.
It's RWE who came up with that, number, not me. The big problem (apart from shutting down the nukes) is that Germany is goimg to have to shut down some fossil plants too, or miss its 20/20 targets. (20% co2 reduction in co2 output by 2020 I think).
One is that the number is for peak capacity, not base load (since we're talking about solar and wind, it probably is), so you need quite a lot of overcapacity to handle the supply dips.
Currently Germany generates maybe 5%(*) of its electricty by wind. This would imply that wind only generates 12% of installed capacity. Anyway, if its the case you can't rely on this magic 40% to replace the 27% that comes from nukes.
The second is that we're talking to Germany, which was East and West Germany a couple of decades ago. There's probably a lot of redundant infrastructure that no longer needs to be duplicated on both sides.
Makes no sense.
If West Germany had 10% oivercapacity and East Germany had 10% overcapacity then unified Germany would have... 10% overcapacity.
You could argue that the collapse of the East Germany economy meant that there was an increase in overcapacity on the East German side, but that was a long time ago.
Finally, Germany has borders with a lot of other countries that may want to buy electricity, so it's in a good position to export power if it has spare capacity
Germany exports 2-3% of its production. Not 40% Some people (Federal Association of Energy and Water) are claiming that Germany has become a net importer since shutting down the 7 old nukes.
((*) Probably out of date figure, but less than the 17% total renewables, which includes hydro, biomass and so on).
That says that Germany expots a net of 13 TWh a year. Generation is 636 TWh. so Germany exports about 2% of its production.
I see nothing that says Germany has 35% overcapacity at that link.
I do see a page that says that Germany has about 10% overcapacity, which is reasonable, and that when the nukes are shut down there will be around 20% undercapacity which would be a disaster.
France imports about 12,400 tonnes of uranium oxide a year(*), Sounds like a lot of mining eh? Do you have any idea how much coal would have to be mined to produce the same amount of electricity?
It's peanuts.
((*) yes, more has to be dug out to get the 12,400 tonnes, but the point still stands).
If people could see how much the running costs were on the Sony TV vs the LG TV vs the Samsung TV, they are likely to factor that into their purchasing decisions.
Uh, you can - it's right there on the sticker. Buy A (or A+), don't buy B.
(Now we're getting energy ratings for housing - that's frightening - lots of old stock is C, D or even E.)
Slashdot Mirror
Just when you thought the idiots couldn't get any stupider someone comes and proves you wrong.
"would mean around a 50% chance of a rise in global average temperature of more than 4C by 2100," he said.'"
Is there any chance we could see the error bar on that 4C temperature change... With that long a prediction I suspect the correct scientific representation would be
4C +- 100C (Remember, that is a 90 year extrapolation!)
Plus or minus 100C ?
not to clear on the idea of phase change and latent heat, are you ?
Which part of "the cost of solar cells has dropped 21 percent this year" didn't you understand?
The part where I can use that to predict the price in 5 years.
Why do you believe that? Did the strange voice in your head tell you?
Are you sure? Have you ever been to Abidjan for example?
Damn, he forgot to add...
KABOOOM!!!
(Brainfart - meant 22-23% nuke, not 27%, sorry).
In France?
Do you seriously believe that enough biogas can be generated to replace the quantities of natural gas currently imported? 94e9 m^3 ?
Germany already dedicates 18% of it's agricultural land to biomass production for energy (2.14 million hectares). It may increase this to 4 million hectares. What are they going to eat?
http://www.renewablesinternational.net/german-biomass-growth-continues/150/515/28940/
If the gas plants are a stopgap 'till more wind and solar is ready what are the new coal and lignite plants for?
Looks like 0% margin to me.
That's energy, not electricity. It includes oil for transport and coal for heating,
Everyone else is talking about electricity.
(It's also out of date - Germany currently generates about 17% of it's electricity from renewables, not the ~3% wikipedia shows).
Reading the Google translation of that link it seems to say that with the 8 old nuke plants Germany has 0% overcapacity. (The usual recommendation is to have 10% to allow for plant failures).
Take out the other nukes and ...
Luckily there is a solution: "The end of 2012, the power supply to grow rather than shrink. Bis dahin gehen viele neue Gas- und Kohlekraftwerke ans Netz, und nur wenige werden abgeschaltet. Until then, many new gas and coal power plants go online, and few are turned off. In den darauffolgenden Jahren gehen zusehends alte Kohlekraftwerke vom Netz. In the following years, increasingly old coal plants go by the network. Als Ausgleich müssen neue Gaskraftwerke gebaut werden. To compensate, new gas power plants are built."
So, fuck Kyoto, fuck 20/20.
Thanks Germany.
But the nuclear industry isn't part of the consensus - if there is any "consensus" it is in the political parties and the population.
Try defending nuclear power in a "green" party - you'll be treated like a paedophile and either shut up or quit. The "consensus" will be preserved.
Sorry, meant 23% from nukes (cut'n'paste error in brain)
Because consensus is often made by ruthelessly crushing other points of view.
(Participate in certain kinds olf political activity or traditional conflict resolution and you get pretty disgustred with the idea of consensus).
Germany produces 27% of its electricity from nukes,
17% from renewables
the rest is fossil.
approx 3% is exported.
If you zap the nukes you need to more than double your renewables just to avoid increasing co2 output. And most of your existing renewables is hydro, not wind - you can't double hydro, there aren't the sites available.
Have fun.
Byt the way - stop burning that fucking lignite.
so maybe he isn't a Ukranian, Russian or Englih speaker?
(In French it's Tchernobyl for example).
Germany exports 2-3% of its production.
The nukes are 27% of the production.
Your ideas don't add up.
A full 17% of their energy is provided by renewable sources, well on track to meeting their 18% goal by 2020.
Nuclear comprises only 11% of Germany's energy generation as of 2009.
For a value of 11% that is supprisingly close to 27%
It's RWE who came up with that, number, not me. The big problem (apart from shutting down the nukes) is that Germany is goimg to have to shut down some fossil plants too, or miss its 20/20 targets. (20% co2 reduction in co2 output by 2020 I think).
Currently Germany generates maybe 5%(*) of its electricty by wind. This would imply that wind only generates 12% of installed capacity. Anyway, if its the case you can't rely on this magic 40% to replace the 27% that comes from nukes.
Makes no sense.
If West Germany had 10% oivercapacity and East Germany had 10% overcapacity then unified Germany would have... 10% overcapacity.
You could argue that the collapse of the East Germany economy meant that there was an increase in overcapacity on the East German side, but that was a long time ago.
Germany exports 2-3% of its production. Not 40% Some people (Federal Association of Energy and Water) are claiming that Germany has become a net importer since shutting down the 7 old nukes.
((*) Probably out of date figure, but less than the 17% total renewables, which includes hydro, biomass and so on).
So give me a German link.
Generating 17% from renewables is "leading the world"?
That says that Germany expots a net of 13 TWh a year. Generation is 636 TWh. so Germany exports about 2% of its production.
I see nothing that says Germany has 35% overcapacity at that link.
I do see a page that says that Germany has about 10% overcapacity, which is reasonable, and that when the nukes are shut down there will be around 20% undercapacity which would be a disaster.
http://rwecom.online-report.eu/factbook/en/marketdata/electricity/generation/germanysignificantnewbuildneeded.html
France imports about 12,400 tonnes of uranium oxide a year(*), Sounds like a lot of mining eh? Do you have any idea how much coal would have to be mined to produce the same amount of electricity?
It's peanuts.
((*) yes, more has to be dug out to get the 12,400 tonnes, but the point still stands).
Uh, you can - it's right there on the sticker. Buy A (or A+), don't buy B.
(Now we're getting energy ratings for housing - that's frightening - lots of old stock is C, D or even E.)