In about ten years, the only jobs left will be in the private riot police squads, trying to hold back the tsunami of the unemployed assaulting the One-Percenter citadels to extract their revenge.
Your timeline is a tad extreme, though in general I think we will see rising structural unemployment and eventually it's going to be a serious social problem.
Of course that's just one step away from moving all the drivers to a central facility and remote controlling the trucks as necessary. Then you get to the point where each operator can run multiple trucks. Even if you never remove humans from the equation entirely if you change the truck to driver ratio from 1:1 to 30:1 you're going to have a huge number of people out of work.
reactionless propulsion in a vacuum means free energy. Literally it is an over unity device. Yea pretty safe to call bullshit if that is what is claimed.
Well, except for the energetic laser that acts as an outside source of energy, yeah.
You claimed that humans make semi-rational choices. I pointed out that they do not - they make totally irrational choices.
If humans were completely irrational civilization would be impossible. The evidence suggests that your theory is incorrect.
So, where are you going to put 19 billion people?
There aren't going to be 19 billion people, current best projections puts us topping out at around 10.1 Billion or so by the end of the century. Rising standards of living lower birth rates. All of the developed countries have negative population growth if you ignore immigration. Don't get me wrong, that's still a heck of a lot of people and it's going to put a big strain on the system but it's not a malthusian disaster.
The exercise for society is to figure out how to keep the loss of jobs due to increased automation from laying waste to the economy (due to unemployed workers).
Previously this wasn't an issue because people moved on to labor on things which while valuable had previously been at a lower priority level. Now that all three sectors of the economy are becoming automated I question what the bulk of those people are going to be doing.
You can't even get to the nearest star in one lifetime - how are you going to export the excess population to other planets?
I'm not even sure why you brought that up, but if exporting population were the goal there is plenty of closer real estate in our own solar system. Prior to the development of cheap mass transit to orbit though it's not really an option in either case. Call back when you have a space elevator or cheap fusion rockets.
Humans are not semi-rational when it comes to devising schemes for division of wealth
After which you point to a number of non-rational choices making my point for me.
And mating is not driven by status - otherwise rape wouldn't exist.
Rape is an attempt to breed with someone you don't have the status to get consensually. (or the result of serious psychological problems of course)
And how many people engage in a one-night drunken hookup and the next morning go "Oh my $DIETY, I didn't really f*ck that, did I?"
Thus demonstrating that humans often have short time orientation. I can guarantee that they hooked up with the highest status person they could within that time window though. (Note: displays of high status for men and women are not the same)
Additionally, it would require infinite energy and infinite speed (amount other things) to make anything resembling the federation viable - and we have neither, and won't be getting them in this universe.
Nonsense. You'd need enough energy & resources to provide everyone with an upper middle class lifestyle, enough automation that they don't particularly need to work unless they feel like it, a social system that can accommodate that sort of arrangement, and transportation system that is fast enough to get you to the outer reaches of your civilization in about a month. (that tends to be the rough limiter for the size of any stable political entity)
So for Earth, we've got the transportation problem solved, the automation is in process and will likely be complete before the end of the century, the resources exist, the main issues are energy and the social system. The energy problem will likely be solved by the time the automation problem is if society doesn't collapse first, it's the social system that's the real problem. So far we've failed to come up with any social system that could handle that sort of arrangement.
Humans are semi-rational, self & small group optimizers who seek status and that has significant issues when it comes to devising schemes for division of wealth. Because we're very mating driven and mating is based on status it's not enough for the high achievers to get "enough" to support a decent lifestyle, they need to acquire as many additional resources as possible in order to display signs of high worth and that sabotages our attempts to create an equitable division. This issue has brought down most of the top societies we've ever created and we still haven't come up with a solution.
That depends on where you live. For many parts of the American heartland which are low population density then sure that's doable with a reasonable amount of hard work, frugality, two incomes and a long waiting period. (not optimal, but doable) For anywhere with within about 500 miles of the coast, which generally have higher population densities and thus higher property prices, no it's pretty much impossible for all but the upper class.
States, and the gold backed currency national system were both currency users not currency issuers, in which case yes, the budget works like a household and must be balanced or bad things happen. Under a fiat system like we have now at the Federal level, a balanced budget would actually be a bad thing in the current circumstances. As a fiscal conservative it pains me to say that, but that's the truth. (S – I) = (G – T) + (X – M)
*shrug* Between a right leaning plutocrat and a left leaning corporatist he seemed the better option. Frankly he's performed about as I expected, I'm not sure why everyone is so surprised.
Of course there is another way, that's to accept that one size fits all isn't the right way to do it. Some simple statistics would allow you chop up the student body by standard deviations. The slow learners get a special program that gives them a slower schedule and more tutoring to deal with their trouble spots. The middle range folks stick to the current system. The high end students get put in an accelerated program with more self direction and higher expectations. No additional resources are required, just re-shuffling of what we already have into a more efficient configuration.
Smart kids need to learn that the alleged dumb kids aren't useless members of society, and dumb kids needs to learn that smart kids are just kids, too.
Perhaps, but leaving them together doesn't teach that lesson. Instead, it teaches that being smart is good way to get a beating and that the authorities aren't there to help you.
Well, we do have a fairly stable biosphere available. Eradicating humanity and moving in would probably be cheaper than terraforming something from scratch.
It's over complicated and invades privacy. First of all, we should be encouraging people to move to non-gasoline based vehicles and the best way to do that is to keep ratcheting up the gas tax until at least 50% of vehicles switch. Once that happens we should add straightforward weight per axle tax paid at registration time. It's accurate, fair and easy to administer.
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In about ten years, the only jobs left will be in the private riot police squads, trying to hold back the tsunami of the unemployed assaulting the One-Percenter citadels to extract their revenge.
Your timeline is a tad extreme, though in general I think we will see rising structural unemployment and eventually it's going to be a serious social problem.
Of course that's just one step away from moving all the drivers to a central facility and remote controlling the trucks as necessary. Then you get to the point where each operator can run multiple trucks. Even if you never remove humans from the equation entirely if you change the truck to driver ratio from 1:1 to 30:1 you're going to have a huge number of people out of work.
reactionless propulsion in a vacuum means free energy. Literally it is an over unity device. Yea pretty safe to call bullshit if that is what is claimed.
Well, except for the energetic laser that acts as an outside source of energy, yeah.
Unless you shoot the waste into a star (and do it safely), there is no safe place for it.
Where do you think that radioactive material came from in the first place?
The French have been running a full recycling system for a while now, perhaps you could check with them?
I don't disagree, however so far the elite appear to be favoring increased repression instead.
You claimed that humans make semi-rational choices. I pointed out that they do not - they make totally irrational choices.
If humans were completely irrational civilization would be impossible. The evidence suggests that your theory is incorrect.
So, where are you going to put 19 billion people?
There aren't going to be 19 billion people, current best projections puts us topping out at around 10.1 Billion or so by the end of the century. Rising standards of living lower birth rates. All of the developed countries have negative population growth if you ignore immigration. Don't get me wrong, that's still a heck of a lot of people and it's going to put a big strain on the system but it's not a malthusian disaster.
The exercise for society is to figure out how to keep the loss of jobs due to increased automation from laying waste to the economy (due to unemployed workers).
Previously this wasn't an issue because people moved on to labor on things which while valuable had previously been at a lower priority level. Now that all three sectors of the economy are becoming automated I question what the bulk of those people are going to be doing.
You can't even get to the nearest star in one lifetime - how are you going to export the excess population to other planets?
I'm not even sure why you brought that up, but if exporting population were the goal there is plenty of closer real estate in our own solar system. Prior to the development of cheap mass transit to orbit though it's not really an option in either case. Call back when you have a space elevator or cheap fusion rockets.
Humans are not semi-rational when it comes to devising schemes for division of wealth
After which you point to a number of non-rational choices making my point for me.
And mating is not driven by status - otherwise rape wouldn't exist.
Rape is an attempt to breed with someone you don't have the status to get consensually. (or the result of serious psychological problems of course)
And how many people engage in a one-night drunken hookup and the next morning go "Oh my $DIETY, I didn't really f*ck that, did I?"
Thus demonstrating that humans often have short time orientation. I can guarantee that they hooked up with the highest status person they could within that time window though. (Note: displays of high status for men and women are not the same)
Mating is driven by testosterone
Desire is yes, opportunities, no.
I wasn't making social commentary that it was a good thing, just pointing out that the logic wasn't complicated to understand.
Additionally, it would require infinite energy and infinite speed (amount other things) to make anything resembling the federation viable - and we have neither, and won't be getting them in this universe.
Nonsense. You'd need enough energy & resources to provide everyone with an upper middle class lifestyle, enough automation that they don't particularly need to work unless they feel like it, a social system that can accommodate that sort of arrangement, and transportation system that is fast enough to get you to the outer reaches of your civilization in about a month. (that tends to be the rough limiter for the size of any stable political entity)
So for Earth, we've got the transportation problem solved, the automation is in process and will likely be complete before the end of the century, the resources exist, the main issues are energy and the social system. The energy problem will likely be solved by the time the automation problem is if society doesn't collapse first, it's the social system that's the real problem. So far we've failed to come up with any social system that could handle that sort of arrangement.
Humans are semi-rational, self & small group optimizers who seek status and that has significant issues when it comes to devising schemes for division of wealth. Because we're very mating driven and mating is based on status it's not enough for the high achievers to get "enough" to support a decent lifestyle, they need to acquire as many additional resources as possible in order to display signs of high worth and that sabotages our attempts to create an equitable division. This issue has brought down most of the top societies we've ever created and we still haven't come up with a solution.
That depends on where you live. For many parts of the American heartland which are low population density then sure that's doable with a reasonable amount of hard work, frugality, two incomes and a long waiting period. (not optimal, but doable) For anywhere with within about 500 miles of the coast, which generally have higher population densities and thus higher property prices, no it's pretty much impossible for all but the upper class.
States, and the gold backed currency national system were both currency users not currency issuers, in which case yes, the budget works like a household and must be balanced or bad things happen. Under a fiat system like we have now at the Federal level, a balanced budget would actually be a bad thing in the current circumstances. As a fiscal conservative it pains me to say that, but that's the truth. (S – I) = (G – T) + (X – M)
Someone explain this techno nerd obsession with replacing people with robots, I just don't get it.
Profit = Revenue - Costs
Lower costs = higher profit
What good is all their money and power when there are no proles to do their dirty work? It would mean they'd have to do it.
Hence the large investments in robotics and AI research.
*shrug* Between a right leaning plutocrat and a left leaning corporatist he seemed the better option. Frankly he's performed about as I expected, I'm not sure why everyone is so surprised.
Of course there is another way, that's to accept that one size fits all isn't the right way to do it. Some simple statistics would allow you chop up the student body by standard deviations. The slow learners get a special program that gives them a slower schedule and more tutoring to deal with their trouble spots. The middle range folks stick to the current system. The high end students get put in an accelerated program with more self direction and higher expectations. No additional resources are required, just re-shuffling of what we already have into a more efficient configuration.
I didn't realize emacs had a powerpoint mode, though I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.
I remember having meetings prior to Powerpoint being such a big deal, honestly they weren't any better it just took longer to make the props.
Don't worry, proles won't be invited to attend.
Smart kids need to learn that the alleged dumb kids aren't useless members of society, and dumb kids needs to learn that smart kids are just kids, too.
Perhaps, but leaving them together doesn't teach that lesson. Instead, it teaches that being smart is good way to get a beating and that the authorities aren't there to help you.
Well, we do have a fairly stable biosphere available. Eradicating humanity and moving in would probably be cheaper than terraforming something from scratch.
This is a real problem. The current system acts to turn rookie criminals into hardened criminals and that isn't a good outcome.
It's over complicated and invades privacy. First of all, we should be encouraging people to move to non-gasoline based vehicles and the best way to do that is to keep ratcheting up the gas tax until at least 50% of vehicles switch. Once that happens we should add straightforward weight per axle tax paid at registration time. It's accurate, fair and easy to administer.
That's why I use Brainblock Plus, it strips out the advertising I don't want. Besides you're not running neural scripting on a public feed are you?