One thing you forgot is that each $29 DVD player took a lot of oil to make for which the maker had to pay in, you guessed it, US dollars. That's how the scam operates in America's favour.
We could be butting heads on this one all the time. First it matters enormously because even if both parties of your example hold dollars for even a split second their M1 is controlled by by Greenspan. That's an enormous amount of power right there. Also you forget that oil is a fungible commodity. Most contracts are signed on international exchange markets with the vast majority of them on NYMEX.
Secondly because the dollar is pegged to oil, which is the real currency of the modern world, you need dollars to buy oil. This makes everything cheaper for Americans vs the rest of the world.
The only problem is that dollars in the hands of foreigners aren't worth as much as when they are in American hands. The Chinese found out about it the hard way when they tried to buy Unocal. So much for their paper wealth in US bucks when they can't buy with it what really matters ie. energy.
As for your other point, not all oil is traded in dollars. Only like 90% of it.
But I would think that this can't go on forever. Once all the jobs are outsourced, we'll hit the point where we can't consume the products India and China are exporting, at any price.
This point will come when oil stops being traded in US dollars. Right now your currency is grossly overvalued because anyone who wants to buy oi has to pay in greenbacks. This creates an artificial demand for US dollars. If it weren't for that US dollar would carry little more respect than a peso.
Now, your govt isn't stupid and knows this prety well, so they invaded Iraq as soon as Saddam announced that they'd trade Iraqi oil in Euros. Now, that Iran is trying to do the same thing (and even start their own oil Bourse traded in Euros) your president is throwing a hissy fit. Except this time he's way too weak to do anything about it.
Soon enough the chinese plasticware at Walmart is going to get verrry expensive for ya.
You've already shipped all your worthwhile jobs. None are left. Bush and Co. transformed America into an economy of fried chicken huts. Enjoy your bright new future. The only reason America isn't a third world country is that oil is traded in US dollars which creates an artificial worldwide demand for greenbacks. As soon as some Arabs band together and start trading oil in Euros your economy will take another nosedive and you'll see the value of those suburban McMansions go right into the gutter. Then the Chinese plasticware will no longer be so cheap at Walmart.
Screwed with the rest of the world for fifty years? Guess what? Payback Time!
I live and work in a small town in Eastern Canada. Now, there are some benefits to living in a semi-rural environment such as less traffic and cheaper housing. At the same time, rural areas of North America tend to be pockets of some dire poverty so it's not exactly the most heartening experience to live like a king on top of a garbage heap.
Rural America is quite different from rural Europe in that it typically consists of very marginalized societies that live in their own communities governed by their own rules and frequently exist outside the main judiciary system. Yes I'm talking rednecks with shotguns here.
Rural America, unlike rural Europe does not benefit from equalization funds similar to Europe and resembles Bangalore India much more than it resembles villages in coastal France or northern Scotland.
When you move to rural areas you also give up a lot that is taken for granted in urban environments, that is selection of foods and products, access to culture and amenities and the ability to mingle with like-minded people. There simply is just a lack of everything.
Now, the housing cost compensates a little bit especially if you intend to have more than a couple of kids. What you have to offset this against is the real possibility that even if you manage to hold on to your job your spouse may not find gainful employment in a rural or semi-rural area. This is frequently a problem for my co-workers who have well educated but frequently underemployed spouses and girlfriends.
Rural areas may get hit hard by the impending energy crisis. There is nothing for public transport in where I live and no real chance of seeing any. Having a car is an absolute necessity to even stay fed and clothed. Driving distances tend to be enormous. My work place is 60 miles from my house while the nearest grocery shop is at least 5 miles away.
As a European I can't get over that I have to travel that far for milk and bread with no walkable community. And I'm actually in the main town's subdivision!
Having ended up where I am I'm seriously reconsidering returning to Europe. You can make a little more money working here vs Europe but you have to sacrifice sooo much more!
here. Just search google for a few minutes and you'll find lots of articles which state plainly that gas production in North America is passed its peak. LNG is becoming the buzzword of the month as the shortfalls in gas production must be replaced and soon. In fact there is an LNG terminal going up in my city and I live in Canada! That's right, Canada, the world's second largest Natural Gas producer is starting to build LNG plants. If that is not clear evidence that North American domestic gas production is in trouble then I don't know what is. Finally stop dishing out insults and then accusing me of doing likewise. Deep inside you know I'm onto something but your pride/denial/whatever triggers your ad-hominem attacks.
I really don't care if you believe in peak oil. I do. I have a plan to deal with its consequences. If for some yet undiscovered reason it doesn't happen in my lifetime, that'll be just great! I won't have lost much. If it does however, then those who have done nothing to create a backup plan will have a tough time adjusting.
Refusing to accept the facts of peak oil and gas production and sticking finger in your ears while shouting "I can't hear you" does nothing to address the problem. Get your head out of the sand and deal with reality lest reality will deal with you. But above all, stop shooting the messenger.
You clearly exhibit the first of the four stages of grief caused by a loss: Denial, Depression, Anger and Acceptance.
Just like the vast majority of Americans you've yet to accept the fact that fossil fuels are running short so you're in the denial stage.
Personally I'm stage two myself and expect to be at stage three when the reality of it all starts to hit home ie. lineups at gas stations, intermittent power cuts etc. Acceptance is the last of the stages and I don't think many people will get to that point until the first three stages of grief are behind them.
For now, please enjoy your denial as reality will dispel this very harshly for you.
It is only a couple of decades before uranium peaks if we start replacing oil with it (in whatever form). Breeder reactors would double that time frame. However, the energy required to build and operate those nuclear stations can't be ignored and may shave quite a bit off that timeframe.
I like how people pull numbers of of their collective asses. What exactly are you going to dig up for a thousand years given the current energy demand and the proven reserves of oil, natural gas and coal.
Hydrogen is not an energy source. What are you going to tap into to replace the awesome amounts of energy we currently get from fossil fuels? Fission energy (ie. uranium) will peak just like oil. Natural gas has already peaked in North America. Coal will peak in a few decades, possibly sooner if we start liquefying it to make synthetic crude.
Tar sands in Alberta require huge gas inputs making it barely worthwhile from the energy standpoint. The Energy Recovered to Energy Invested ratio for tar sands is only 1.5 (for comparison the Saudi light sweet crude has a ratio of 30). As far as shale oil goes the ratio is less than 1.0 making it an excercise in futility at best and a moronic waste of remaining energy at worst.
Fusion power is nowhere near ready to replace our existing reserves and it remains a high risk venture. Cold Fusion hasn't happen and most likely won't while Hot Fusion is yet to yield a positive Energy Recovered to Energy Invested ratio. In other words Fusion Power currently consumes more energy than it generates.
We're good. But we're not THAT good. Yet. There is a very good chance we will have a long and significant readjustment period that will be very hard on ravenous oil consumers such as the USA.
The looming catastrophe in America is on the horizon yet the political powers in Washington refuse to acknowledge that the current American way of life is not sustainable and must be significantly downsized if there is any chance of avoiding a tremendous disaster caused by a massive energy shortage. Extending DST is one of the lamest attempts I have heard about to address the coming energy crisis. Meanwhile SUVs are being sold, subarbian McMansions are being raised at record rates and America's level of debt is at the highest level in its history.
If there is something to draw out of the recent energy bill is that politicians at least know that shit is about to hit the fan in a big way and those who prepare themselves for what's coming will fare much better than those who don't.
So what exactly is the cause of our impending doom? Peak oil, that's what. In other words the world is about to reach (possibly already has) the peak of sustainable oil production levels. Beyond this point we enter the right hand side of the gaussian curve of oil production. This subject has been beaten to death on various internet sites (just google for peak oil) so I won't repeat the reasons why a major adjustment is not avoidable. I'll just mention a few things one should do to make sure they are ready for the greatest emergency in American history:
Get out of debt. Make sure your mortage is paid asap and lock your rates now. When the peak oil fallout unfolds debt collectors will likely be armed.
Make sure you have a ready source of food. Befriend a farmer or get a job on a farm. Preferably a small self sustaining farm which is diversified in its production and does not rely totally on fossil fuel inputs. Organic farms are usually the closest to fitting the bill.
Live close to your work place. This is sort of obvious but may be very hard to do for most people. Public transit will keep going at least a bit longer than private vehicles.
Make sure you can make yourself useful after the oil crash. I doubt there will be very many positions for PR executives in the future, but this may actually benefit some geeks on slashdot as the need to fix all kinds of things and hack homegrown power supply systems (such as home made wind turbines) will be unprecedented. No more chucking old stuff on the curb once it develops a simple fault! The world will not be nearly as wasteful.
Make sure the area you live can survive without significant oil inputs. Arizona isn't likely to be habitable after the oil crash. If you happen to live there it may be prudent to move now especially if you happen to own a property there as those will become next to worthless once the price of fossil fuels becomes prohibitive.
Anyway, the doomsday scenario may unfold involving wars, civil strife and famine or we may be able to gradually power down and switch to a more sustainable life style. One thing is certain though. It will not be business as usual in the coming years and a serious societal readjustment is coming and frankly, long overdue if you ask me.
It's not an effective way to store energy. Batteries are much better. Modern Lithium Ion batteries have energy density high enough to make all-electric vehicles more realistic. Announcements such as this one may cut "refueling" times of electric vehicles down to minutes, making them practical for long trips not just subarban commute.
Would you object to owning this as your next automobile? The future is bright, the future's electric. Remember you heard it here first.
Looks like Japan just got some free energy from mother nature. Get some turbines over there and voila (nearly) free electricity. Especially if the geiser lasts for a while.
Saudi Arabia might be able to stretch their capacity to another 1mbpd but that's about it and even that does not appear very likely. Meanwhile the world demand for oil keeps growing at a steady 3% every year (roughly 2mbpd as of 2005). If all we have is one or two mbpd of spare capacity it's not hard to figure out when the max supply vs current demand curves cross over. It'll be fairly soon.
BTW Hibernia was discovered in the sixties and will never achieve 500kbpd nevermind the puny 2mbpd needed just to cope with the current rise in oil demand.
I'm quite interested in the subject of oil and gas. Care to mention those major oil fields that have been discovered recently. It doesn't even have to be something on the scale of Ghawar. Just point me to some recently (after 1975) discovered field with say, sutainable output of 2 million bpd... must've missed something major.
The only reason we don't know if the oil peak is here or not is because Saudi Arabia is not transparent with their production and capacity numbers. Every other producing country has since peaked. Saudi Arabia may have peaked also but they are maintaining reservoir pressures by pumping obscene quantities of water into their oil fields. This prolongs the peak output but does nothing to stop depletion.
I can state with 80% confidence that oil will have peaked by 2010. But hey, don't let the facts get in the way of your oil consumption binge. Go buy yourself a hummer, just don't run complaining about its resale value in a few years time.
you sir are an asshole. I happened to have grown up in Poland and while it's not exactly the US of A its housing conditions are *at least* as good as in the UK where I live for a number of years before moving to North America. Poland is no economic powerhouse but to claim that its housing conditions are dire is like describing the UK as one big slum.
Membership of the EU doesn't imply acceptance of Euro as your country's currency. Some countries opted out of Euro (the UK for example) others will join the single currency in the next year or two (Poland is going to be in that group). For now all the new EU members elected to retain their original currencies for the time being.
Poland's broadband services is no worse than in Canada or the US. However, the price of broadband still keeps many Poles reliant on dial up. The basic DSL package (512KB/s downstream) from the national telco (TPSA) costs around 100 zlotys while the 2MB/s costs 159 zlotys with tax. An average monthly salary is around 2000 zlotys per month before tax, so unless broadband is high on your list of priorities it's hard to justify it out of your budget.
Poland is also one of the most populous Eastern Europe countries so it's hardly surprising that they were the first to break the 1,000,000 lines target.
I know, that those people from SCO at the front lines are only doing their jobs and whatnot but someone somewhere makes the actual decisions. Probably Darle McBride. I mean how low do you have to stoop to start behaving like this? Do those people have absolutely no honour whatsoever. I know that corps cater to their shareholders and whatnot but really, how low can a person go in the pursuit of (vanishing) profit? What a rat.
Bullshit. The oil wars are just starting. A lot more rednecks will have to be sacrificed before all the major oil fields are controlled by the US of A. Thus a draft will be necessary.
I did. Between 2000 and 2003. What a disaster that was.
First, they wouldn't tell me what they were up to in the interview (red flag #1) then of course it turned out the idea was lame, then they were funded through VC only with no revenue. Then it was the classic catch 22 of a stupid dotcom. They had to convince a bunch of online merchants to adopt their solution so that consumers would use their portal which required them to subscribe a bunch of merchants. Needless to say they are long dead and buried. Bad idea (so bad they were embarrassed to openly talk about it), bad execution (lots of so called solution architects hired who didn't contribute very much) and a terrible marketing/launch plan.
Never again will I join a company that will not tell me what the hell they are trying to build.
Those were tough times however, so I'm glad they tied me over until 2004 when the market rebounded somewhat.
Because it isn't. Texas isn't the prettiest place on earth but there is no comparison to African cities. That guy is out to prove something as he spams every post of mine where I dare say that African cities are poorer than western ones.
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One thing you forgot is that each $29 DVD player took a lot of oil to make for which the maker had to pay in, you guessed it, US dollars. That's how the scam operates in America's favour.
Secondly because the dollar is pegged to oil, which is the real currency of the modern world, you need dollars to buy oil. This makes everything cheaper for Americans vs the rest of the world. The only problem is that dollars in the hands of foreigners aren't worth as much as when they are in American hands. The Chinese found out about it the hard way when they tried to buy Unocal. So much for their paper wealth in US bucks when they can't buy with it what really matters ie. energy.
As for your other point, not all oil is traded in dollars. Only like 90% of it.
This point will come when oil stops being traded in US dollars. Right now your currency is grossly overvalued because anyone who wants to buy oi has to pay in greenbacks. This creates an artificial demand for US dollars. If it weren't for that US dollar would carry little more respect than a peso.
Now, your govt isn't stupid and knows this prety well, so they invaded Iraq as soon as Saddam announced that they'd trade Iraqi oil in Euros. Now, that Iran is trying to do the same thing (and even start their own oil Bourse traded in Euros) your president is throwing a hissy fit. Except this time he's way too weak to do anything about it.
Soon enough the chinese plasticware at Walmart is going to get verrry expensive for ya.
Screwed with the rest of the world for fifty years? Guess what? Payback Time!
Rural America is quite different from rural Europe in that it typically consists of very marginalized societies that live in their own communities governed by their own rules and frequently exist outside the main judiciary system. Yes I'm talking rednecks with shotguns here.
Rural America, unlike rural Europe does not benefit from equalization funds similar to Europe and resembles Bangalore India much more than it resembles villages in coastal France or northern Scotland.
When you move to rural areas you also give up a lot that is taken for granted in urban environments, that is selection of foods and products, access to culture and amenities and the ability to mingle with like-minded people. There simply is just a lack of everything.
Now, the housing cost compensates a little bit especially if you intend to have more than a couple of kids. What you have to offset this against is the real possibility that even if you manage to hold on to your job your spouse may not find gainful employment in a rural or semi-rural area. This is frequently a problem for my co-workers who have well educated but frequently underemployed spouses and girlfriends.
Rural areas may get hit hard by the impending energy crisis. There is nothing for public transport in where I live and no real chance of seeing any. Having a car is an absolute necessity to even stay fed and clothed. Driving distances tend to be enormous. My work place is 60 miles from my house while the nearest grocery shop is at least 5 miles away.
As a European I can't get over that I have to travel that far for milk and bread with no walkable community. And I'm actually in the main town's subdivision!
Having ended up where I am I'm seriously reconsidering returning to Europe. You can make a little more money working here vs Europe but you have to sacrifice sooo much more!
I really don't care if you believe in peak oil. I do. I have a plan to deal with its consequences. If for some yet undiscovered reason it doesn't happen in my lifetime, that'll be just great! I won't have lost much. If it does however, then those who have done nothing to create a backup plan will have a tough time adjusting.
Refusing to accept the facts of peak oil and gas production and sticking finger in your ears while shouting "I can't hear you" does nothing to address the problem. Get your head out of the sand and deal with reality lest reality will deal with you. But above all, stop shooting the messenger.
Just like the vast majority of Americans you've yet to accept the fact that fossil fuels are running short so you're in the denial stage.
Personally I'm stage two myself and expect to be at stage three when the reality of it all starts to hit home ie. lineups at gas stations, intermittent power cuts etc. Acceptance is the last of the stages and I don't think many people will get to that point until the first three stages of grief are behind them.
For now, please enjoy your denial as reality will dispel this very harshly for you.
It is only a couple of decades before uranium peaks if we start replacing oil with it (in whatever form). Breeder reactors would double that time frame. However, the energy required to build and operate those nuclear stations can't be ignored and may shave quite a bit off that timeframe.
I like how people pull numbers of of their collective asses. What exactly are you going to dig up for a thousand years given the current energy demand and the proven reserves of oil, natural gas and coal.
Natural gas production past its peak in north america
Tar sands in Alberta require huge gas inputs making it barely worthwhile from the energy standpoint. The Energy Recovered to Energy Invested ratio for tar sands is only 1.5 (for comparison the Saudi light sweet crude has a ratio of 30). As far as shale oil goes the ratio is less than 1.0 making it an excercise in futility at best and a moronic waste of remaining energy at worst.
Fusion power is nowhere near ready to replace our existing reserves and it remains a high risk venture. Cold Fusion hasn't happen and most likely won't while Hot Fusion is yet to yield a positive Energy Recovered to Energy Invested ratio. In other words Fusion Power currently consumes more energy than it generates.
We're good. But we're not THAT good. Yet. There is a very good chance we will have a long and significant readjustment period that will be very hard on ravenous oil consumers such as the USA.
If there is something to draw out of the recent energy bill is that politicians at least know that shit is about to hit the fan in a big way and those who prepare themselves for what's coming will fare much better than those who don't.
So what exactly is the cause of our impending doom? Peak oil, that's what. In other words the world is about to reach (possibly already has) the peak of sustainable oil production levels. Beyond this point we enter the right hand side of the gaussian curve of oil production. This subject has been beaten to death on various internet sites (just google for peak oil) so I won't repeat the reasons why a major adjustment is not avoidable. I'll just mention a few things one should do to make sure they are ready for the greatest emergency in American history:
- Get out of debt. Make sure your mortage is paid asap and lock your rates now. When the peak oil fallout unfolds debt collectors will likely be armed.
- Make sure you have a ready source of food. Befriend a farmer or get a job on a farm. Preferably a small self sustaining farm which is diversified in its production and does not rely totally on fossil fuel inputs. Organic farms are usually the closest to fitting the bill.
- Live close to your work place. This is sort of obvious but may be very hard to do for most people. Public transit will keep going at least a bit longer than private vehicles.
- Make sure you can make yourself useful after the oil crash. I doubt there will be very many positions for PR executives in the future, but this may actually benefit some geeks on slashdot as the need to fix all kinds of things and hack homegrown power supply systems (such as home made wind turbines) will be unprecedented. No more chucking old stuff on the curb once it develops a simple fault! The world will not be nearly as wasteful.
- Make sure the area you live can survive without significant oil inputs. Arizona isn't likely to be habitable after the oil crash. If you happen to live there it may be prudent to move now especially if you happen to own a property there as those will become next to worthless once the price of fossil fuels becomes prohibitive.
Anyway, the doomsday scenario may unfold involving wars, civil strife and famine or we may be able to gradually power down and switch to a more sustainable life style. One thing is certain though. It will not be business as usual in the coming years and a serious societal readjustment is coming and frankly, long overdue if you ask me.Would you object to owning this as your next automobile? The future is bright, the future's electric. Remember you heard it here first.
Looks like Japan just got some free energy from mother nature. Get some turbines over there and voila (nearly) free electricity. Especially if the geiser lasts for a while.
BTW Hibernia was discovered in the sixties and will never achieve 500kbpd nevermind the puny 2mbpd needed just to cope with the current rise in oil demand.
The only reason we don't know if the oil peak is here or not is because Saudi Arabia is not transparent with their production and capacity numbers. Every other producing country has since peaked. Saudi Arabia may have peaked also but they are maintaining reservoir pressures by pumping obscene quantities of water into their oil fields. This prolongs the peak output but does nothing to stop depletion.
I can state with 80% confidence that oil will have peaked by 2010. But hey, don't let the facts get in the way of your oil consumption binge. Go buy yourself a hummer, just don't run complaining about its resale value in a few years time.
you sir are an asshole. I happened to have grown up in Poland and while it's not exactly the US of A its housing conditions are *at least* as good as in the UK where I live for a number of years before moving to North America. Poland is no economic powerhouse but to claim that its housing conditions are dire is like describing the UK as one big slum.
Membership of the EU doesn't imply acceptance of Euro as your country's currency. Some countries opted out of Euro (the UK for example) others will join the single currency in the next year or two (Poland is going to be in that group). For now all the new EU members elected to retain their original currencies for the time being.
Poland is also one of the most populous Eastern Europe countries so it's hardly surprising that they were the first to break the 1,000,000 lines target.
I know, that those people from SCO at the front lines are only doing their jobs and whatnot but someone somewhere makes the actual decisions. Probably Darle McBride. I mean how low do you have to stoop to start behaving like this? Do those people have absolutely no honour whatsoever. I know that corps cater to their shareholders and whatnot but really, how low can a person go in the pursuit of (vanishing) profit? What a rat.
Bullshit. The oil wars are just starting. A lot more rednecks will have to be sacrificed before all the major oil fields are controlled by the US of A. Thus a draft will be necessary.
First, they wouldn't tell me what they were up to in the interview (red flag #1) then of course it turned out the idea was lame, then they were funded through VC only with no revenue. Then it was the classic catch 22 of a stupid dotcom. They had to convince a bunch of online merchants to adopt their solution so that consumers would use their portal which required them to subscribe a bunch of merchants. Needless to say they are long dead and buried. Bad idea (so bad they were embarrassed to openly talk about it), bad execution (lots of so called solution architects hired who didn't contribute very much) and a terrible marketing/launch plan.
Never again will I join a company that will not tell me what the hell they are trying to build.
Those were tough times however, so I'm glad they tied me over until 2004 when the market rebounded somewhat.
No I'm not a doomsday crank. Peak oil is here now no matter how much we wish it werent true.
You can now curl up in bed knowing that you really put up an amazing fight in a slashdot thread. What a loser.
Because it isn't. Texas isn't the prettiest place on earth but there is no comparison to African cities. That guy is out to prove something as he spams every post of mine where I dare say that African cities are poorer than western ones.