Who can realistically plan for that kind of growth?
A whole lot of us in the 1990's watched ISPs face exactly that kind of network growth (and worse...)
Now to be fair, I think the only saving grace back then was that the tech and infrastructure were relatively slow to catch up, let alone exceed the expanding capacity (that is, most folks had a crappy 14,4k modem, then a crappy 28,8k modem, then their phone lines wouldn't give them the full 56k, etc). Also, the bigger your home pipe, the more expensive it got - ISDN was hovering at around $160/month (IIRC) minus the various carrier connect fees, T1s cost you at least $3k to install (if you were lucky and very close to a CO) and then cost at least $300/mo, just to keep it warm.
By the time DSL showed up and the Cablecos jumped in, there was enough backbone to handle it (well, most of the time), and kept growing like crazy right up to the dot-bust.
(could be wrong, and hopefully someone will helpfully point the wrong bits out, but that's how I semi-remember it...)
Err, Verizon has been making advertising gold out of it. Note that I'm not a fan of Verizon, but the "there's a map for that" commercials have to be striking a bad chord over at AT&T headquarters right about now...
...that assumes a whole lot of factors to which (apparently) you are not privy to.
(...now if apple pulled the plug on the Darwin project, then changed their TPM chip... well, the latter they couldn't really do w/o angering a lot of existing Macintosh users who suddenly could no longer upgrade, and the former would still have code floating around out there).
Well, nevermind - I'm guessing ol' Steve couldn't quite so easily pull the plug after all.
Only if you think a cinder-block sculpture in the shape of a humanoid is hot. No amount of subd is going to smooth a chunky UT-sized player mesh by that much...
You and me both... as a Vonage user, I have no desire to catch hell from the missus when/if the phone voice quality goes straight to hell during one of her marathon "I'm just going to call mom and say hi" sessions.
(and yes, I know it'll take more than VoIP usage to trigger it, but given the overly-aggressive load of ads in my physical mailbox for Comcast's overpriced phone service, I really wouldn't be surprised if it did start crapping out).
Assuming the allegations were true, how can you explain AMD's continued presence in OEM machinery anyway? HP (for instance) certainly didn't stop selling AMD-based desktops, servers, etc., and Intel+HP are like fraternal twins.
Also, AMD still had gobs of cash with which to spend on R&D, even with 25% of the market (Hell, Apple has less than 10% of its market, and look how they're doing). Also, consider that Opterons were mostly relegated to servers and higher-end desktops (and IIRC not laptops, low-end desktops, etc).
Even if Intel did pull a Microsoft with 'rebate' scams, I doubt that AMD was exactly starved for cash, and Hector Ruiz certainly wasn't helping things any with the way he ran the show.
I'm not denying Intel may have done shady dealings (in fact I think it's likely that they did do it, along the lines of Microsoft's OEM 'rebate/marketing funds' model), but there's only so much you can blame on that even if it were 200% as bad as alleged.
I doubt it - AMD decided to drop its fabs without Intel's help.
Yes, for awhile the Opteron series was kicking Intel ass all over the map. But, AMD never really did that much with it after awhile, and Intel finally removed head from ass to come up with Core. I'm not seeing how things could've been that much different. Once Core came out, all bets were off (and thus NetBurst died a well-deserved death...)
Even on the Apple side of things, well... Apple started looking at the x86 in the first place, largely because the G5 chips were such room heaters that you couldn't make a laptop with one and have it not overheat (or keep the form factor to a usable size). AMD had a similar reputation for heat, no realistic roadmap to match/beat Intel's, and didn't really (IMHO) offer much to entice Apple to their side, tech-wise.
Funny thing is, GP was talking about trends, not the way things have always been.
Here's what got missed: 'Dumb' people have always out-bred the 'Intelligent' people. Peasants have always whomped out more kids per woman than royalty have - or at least tried to.
The reasons why are a bit unproven, but not that hard to postulate: Smarter people know alternate means of caring for themselves in old age (with the most common means being that one pounds out enough kids to support them comfortably in old age). The intelligent are expanding their minds/goods/understanding, and not just their orgasm counts (that is, the intelligent have more than just sex to keep them occupied). Intelligent folk know enough to hold back (or at least practice some form of both control) when the sex is just for pleasure.
The xkcd article that GP was referring to was funny, but it made some solid points: dumb people have always out-numbered (and out-bred) the intelligent, and so the premise of Idiocracy (that is, there is some massive increase of dumb kids being born with a massive decrease of intelligent ones being born)...is false. (The second point - that hysteria of decline has always more harmful to society than the decline itself, is also pretty solid as well.)
While Windows 7 is less sucky than Vista (and is roughly comparable to XP SP3), simply plopping it in doesn't always make sense.
Most enterprises (mine included) are still just barely testing the things, and the help desk is still trying to determine what the gotchas will be (not only with specific in-house apps, but in general). As a group (like so many others out there) who held out with XP, there's going to be a shitload of user re-training that you simply cannot avoid, unless you really hate your help desk (which is likely why you don't hear Microsoft claiming that training costs are gonna inflate one's TCO these days, eh?) From a cold-hearted BOFH standpoint, it's much easier to let the users get that training at home for awhile first, on their personal equipment, if for no other reason than to minimize the re-training costs you'll have to spend at work.
I will be the absolute last human being stupid enough to demand that all the relatively new (and even not-so-new) multi-million-dollar tools out on the production floor get bumped from XP to Windows 7. I doubt even the tool vendors would have the temerity to ask for the massive downtime required to do such a thing. Move away from manufacturing, and you still have a whole lot of hospitals, service orgs, and etc who will also refuse to bump their machines and tools up as well.
Sure - XP Mode is great for a lot of things, I cna admit that. OTOH, most home users aren't going to have that option, and most small businesses are going to require a whole lot of persuading to buy an XP mode streaming app server for distributed apps.
At home? Meh - I have exactly one Windows machine - the missus' XP laptop. I figure I'll worry about that when I get her a new one next year sometime... and I'm almost willing to bet that I'll still be installing XP on that one - less than a week after she gets it. I doubt she's going to be the only one who does that.
One final question that's going to be asked a LOT by typical users: "Unless/until app makers start making Windows 7 -only apps, why would anyone waste their time with the upgrade, instead of simply waiting until the next time they buy their Dell, HP, whatever? " Security? Meh - they'll claim their home router firewall and sundry for that.
Okay, one more: Too many folks out there have jacked/pirated/whatever copies of XP installed (courtesy of friends, relatives, TPB, whoever), and will likely wait for a jacked/pirated/whatever copy of Windows 7 to come out.
Sorry... I'm just not seeing the rush to convert just yet, save for those who have no real choice (that is, typical users buying new computers).
1) They'd have to actually find him first (odds are good that all but the first cases were done with him in absentia).
2) Good luck collecting.
3) this may sound a bit trollish, but a thought occurred to me: as of right now, Spamford Wallace likely owes enough money to buy a brand new ballistic missile submarine. No one will ever see so much as a dime from him. So... why did they even bother? It's similar to the RIAA and Jammie Thomas - there comes a point where it becomes less of a statement and more of a parody. Trust me, I have zero sympathy for the son of a bitch, but do we have to make a mockery of our own legal system just to make a point?
...actually, my cost is exactly $0.00. My employer foots the bill (and counts it as a benefit, like a huge chunk of PDX area employers do). IIRC, the employers who do this end up paying quite a bit more than what it would cover, since on average, not everyone who works here takes the train. But then, on average, most employees around here seek it as a bennie if they have to commute.
I do agree that on average, the ticket price is ridiculously small compared to operating expenses. OTOH, even if the fare were to double, it would still be one hell of a bargain. Consider that it normally costs a commuter $10-15 a day to park his car in downtown PDX (unless he has the rare employer that offers free/validated parking), and this isn't counting gasoline costs. The ticket costs ~$5 now round trip if it takes more than two hours to do everything (fare schedule here), or $86 for a monthly pass. Broken down, it's still hella cheap at twice the price (and doubling the fees, while hard on the more impoverished among us, would likely pay for the system on its own).
Now it would suck for those who live outside the metro areas, but I actually find that when I go into Portland, I prefer the MAX (train) to driving. Once you total up gas costs, parking fees, aggravation from driving down there... the train makes a hell of a lot more sense.
It's not just in metro areas anymore, though - unlike most states, Oregon is also expanding the lines outward from PDX - I'm hoping they stretch 'em out to the coast, down to Salem, and eventually a medium-rail run to Bend.
If you've ever had to deal with 217, 26, or I-5 up here, you'd be demanding more light rail too...
The best thing is - minimal office politics. There's you, a class, and maybe a head teacher telling you what to do. Co-ordination meetings, blame games, and clueless managers are hard to find.
...wanna bet? I'm speaking as a former CompSci instructor who had to deal with school districts, the Utah Board of Regents, some uber-clueless collegiate administrators, and to top that off, a colleague with few technical skills, but one hell of a penchant for back-stabbing. Fortunately, the latter was easy enough to handle, but the former three were raging nightmares, and could make your life a living hell at the slightest whim.
I still remember when an exceptionally bright student I had, decided that he really liked taking narcotics (turns out that it's pretty common means for a kid to rebel against his/her strict Mormon family). He came in and spoke to me one day after he'd missed class. I made the (political) mistake of discreetly bringing a counselor in to get him some help, since this was something that was way over my head, and he needed the help. Less than an hour later, I was taking a drug test myself and getting hammered with questions by the superintendents because I was, and I quote: "too much of an influence" on my students. Later that year, a student decided that one of the lab servers was a great place to stash some ripped movies so he could share it with his friends at home (Kazaa was pretty new at the time). I spent three hours trying to explain to the superintendents that it was easily taken care of, the offending material was removed, and the MPAA take-down notice was satisfied as soon as the school received it (the files were up for less than 24 hours). I took two weeks' vacation to avoid being suspended, and the student got summarily thrown out for the rest of the semester.
I stuck it out about two years after that, and while the BS died down a lot over that time, eventually funding cuts wiped out seven teaching positions, mine included. The (IMPO) less- technically competent colleague was shifted to an administrative position, and the last CompSci instructor (who was within two years of retirement at the time) got to keep his.
Trust me - I prefer working out here in IT. At least it's the devil I know, and the salary more than makes up for it in most cases.
Agreed - I usually keep a mental tick of upcoming movies that I think may be worth a damn, so I can rent them later if they still come to mind by then (if it still draws my attention months after the flick came and went theater-wise, okay... I'll likely rent it, then maybe go back and buy the disc if it really is good).
The length of time has served me very well. Friends/family/whatever will usually mention whether or not it sucks balls, or if it's actually worth watching. I get that info long before it gets to the point where you can rent it legally... sort of like a slow but effective social filter, to catch the crap and obvious garbage.
The longer it takes them to get to the stage where I can see it in rental, the less inclined I am to bother with renting it, and thus probably not buy the damned thing. No skin off of mine if the studios want to lessen the chances of it getting to my living room...
...all it would take is for a sharp judge in Washington State to tell Microsoft: "sorry - not our jurisdiction. Go to Vegas or Reno to get it taken care of".
"Do you go out of your way to find the way in which you can legally give the government the most possible tax revenue?"
Fair enough - but if that's the case, then let Microsoft lodge its licensing lawsuits and etc. in Nevada as well... where the laws are not as strongly in its favor.
Incidentally, my employer's corp headquarters is in the EU. Can I therefore claim the first $95k of my income as tax-exempt because it was earned "overseas", taking advantage of a wee tax loophole in spite of living in the US? Of course not - I'm not a corporation, so I have to claim the income as being earned right here in the US.
Slashdot Mirror
"I'm sorry, but we cannot disclose such an event because the data was indeed encrypted... in our new and highly-advanced ROT-0 encryption algorithm."
Who can realistically plan for that kind of growth?
A whole lot of us in the 1990's watched ISPs face exactly that kind of network growth (and worse...)
Now to be fair, I think the only saving grace back then was that the tech and infrastructure were relatively slow to catch up, let alone exceed the expanding capacity (that is, most folks had a crappy 14,4k modem, then a crappy 28,8k modem, then their phone lines wouldn't give them the full 56k, etc). Also, the bigger your home pipe, the more expensive it got - ISDN was hovering at around $160/month (IIRC) minus the various carrier connect fees, T1s cost you at least $3k to install (if you were lucky and very close to a CO) and then cost at least $300/mo, just to keep it warm.
By the time DSL showed up and the Cablecos jumped in, there was enough backbone to handle it (well, most of the time), and kept growing like crazy right up to the dot-bust.
(could be wrong, and hopefully someone will helpfully point the wrong bits out, but that's how I semi-remember it...)
Err, Verizon has been making advertising gold out of it. Note that I'm not a fan of Verizon, but the "there's a map for that" commercials have to be striking a bad chord over at AT&T headquarters right about now...
...that assumes a whole lot of factors to which (apparently) you are not privy to.
(...now if apple pulled the plug on the Darwin project, then changed their TPM chip... well, the latter they couldn't really do w/o angering a lot of existing Macintosh users who suddenly could no longer upgrade, and the former would still have code floating around out there).
Well, nevermind - I'm guessing ol' Steve couldn't quite so easily pull the plug after all.
Only if you think a cinder-block sculpture in the shape of a humanoid is hot. No amount of subd is going to smooth a chunky UT-sized player mesh by that much...
I'm guessing the reason Comcast hasn't messed with it has to do with the fact that FIOS is available in my neighborhood...
You and me both... as a Vonage user, I have no desire to catch hell from the missus when/if the phone voice quality goes straight to hell during one of her marathon "I'm just going to call mom and say hi" sessions.
(and yes, I know it'll take more than VoIP usage to trigger it, but given the overly-aggressive load of ads in my physical mailbox for Comcast's overpriced phone service, I really wouldn't be surprised if it did start crapping out).
Assuming the allegations were true, how can you explain AMD's continued presence in OEM machinery anyway? HP (for instance) certainly didn't stop selling AMD-based desktops, servers, etc., and Intel+HP are like fraternal twins.
Also, AMD still had gobs of cash with which to spend on R&D, even with 25% of the market (Hell, Apple has less than 10% of its market, and look how they're doing). Also, consider that Opterons were mostly relegated to servers and higher-end desktops (and IIRC not laptops, low-end desktops, etc).
Even if Intel did pull a Microsoft with 'rebate' scams, I doubt that AMD was exactly starved for cash, and Hector Ruiz certainly wasn't helping things any with the way he ran the show.
I'm not denying Intel may have done shady dealings (in fact I think it's likely that they did do it, along the lines of Microsoft's OEM 'rebate/marketing funds' model), but there's only so much you can blame on that even if it were 200% as bad as alleged.
...this is New York we're talking about, not Chicago. They're (well, supposed to be) more subtle about such things.
I doubt it - AMD decided to drop its fabs without Intel's help.
Yes, for awhile the Opteron series was kicking Intel ass all over the map. But, AMD never really did that much with it after awhile, and Intel finally removed head from ass to come up with Core. I'm not seeing how things could've been that much different. Once Core came out, all bets were off (and thus NetBurst died a well-deserved death...)
Even on the Apple side of things, well... Apple started looking at the x86 in the first place, largely because the G5 chips were such room heaters that you couldn't make a laptop with one and have it not overheat (or keep the form factor to a usable size). AMD had a similar reputation for heat, no realistic roadmap to match/beat Intel's, and didn't really (IMHO) offer much to entice Apple to their side, tech-wise.
...what - they'll slap Intel on the wrist twice?
(assuming they're actually found liable/guilty/whatever)
It wasn't irony... it was a disclaimer ;)
Funny thing is, GP was talking about trends, not the way things have always been.
Here's what got missed: 'Dumb' people have always out-bred the 'Intelligent' people. Peasants have always whomped out more kids per woman than royalty have - or at least tried to.
The reasons why are a bit unproven, but not that hard to postulate: Smarter people know alternate means of caring for themselves in old age (with the most common means being that one pounds out enough kids to support them comfortably in old age). The intelligent are expanding their minds/goods/understanding, and not just their orgasm counts (that is, the intelligent have more than just sex to keep them occupied). Intelligent folk know enough to hold back (or at least practice some form of both control) when the sex is just for pleasure.
The xkcd article that GP was referring to was funny, but it made some solid points: dumb people have always out-numbered (and out-bred) the intelligent, and so the premise of Idiocracy (that is, there is some massive increase of dumb kids being born with a massive decrease of intelligent ones being born) ...is false. (The second point - that hysteria of decline has always more harmful to society than the decline itself, is also pretty solid as well.)
The only thing we need are proper Windows 7 drivers...
Err, wasn't that the big Microsoft apologists' common excuse for Vista when it first came out?
Yes and no.
While Windows 7 is less sucky than Vista (and is roughly comparable to XP SP3), simply plopping it in doesn't always make sense.
Most enterprises (mine included) are still just barely testing the things, and the help desk is still trying to determine what the gotchas will be (not only with specific in-house apps, but in general). As a group (like so many others out there) who held out with XP, there's going to be a shitload of user re-training that you simply cannot avoid, unless you really hate your help desk (which is likely why you don't hear Microsoft claiming that training costs are gonna inflate one's TCO these days, eh?) From a cold-hearted BOFH standpoint, it's much easier to let the users get that training at home for awhile first, on their personal equipment, if for no other reason than to minimize the re-training costs you'll have to spend at work.
I will be the absolute last human being stupid enough to demand that all the relatively new (and even not-so-new) multi-million-dollar tools out on the production floor get bumped from XP to Windows 7. I doubt even the tool vendors would have the temerity to ask for the massive downtime required to do such a thing. Move away from manufacturing, and you still have a whole lot of hospitals, service orgs, and etc who will also refuse to bump their machines and tools up as well.
Sure - XP Mode is great for a lot of things, I cna admit that. OTOH, most home users aren't going to have that option, and most small businesses are going to require a whole lot of persuading to buy an XP mode streaming app server for distributed apps.
At home? Meh - I have exactly one Windows machine - the missus' XP laptop. I figure I'll worry about that when I get her a new one next year sometime... and I'm almost willing to bet that I'll still be installing XP on that one - less than a week after she gets it. I doubt she's going to be the only one who does that.
One final question that's going to be asked a LOT by typical users: "Unless/until app makers start making Windows 7 -only apps, why would anyone waste their time with the upgrade, instead of simply waiting until the next time they buy their Dell, HP, whatever? " Security? Meh - they'll claim their home router firewall and sundry for that.
Okay, one more: Too many folks out there have jacked/pirated/whatever copies of XP installed (courtesy of friends, relatives, TPB, whoever), and will likely wait for a jacked/pirated/whatever copy of Windows 7 to come out.
Sorry... I'm just not seeing the rush to convert just yet, save for those who have no real choice (that is, typical users buying new computers).
1) They'd have to actually find him first (odds are good that all but the first cases were done with him in absentia).
2) Good luck collecting.
3) this may sound a bit trollish, but a thought occurred to me: as of right now, Spamford Wallace likely owes enough money to buy a brand new ballistic missile submarine. No one will ever see so much as a dime from him. So... why did they even bother? It's similar to the RIAA and Jammie Thomas - there comes a point where it becomes less of a statement and more of a parody. Trust me, I have zero sympathy for the son of a bitch, but do we have to make a mockery of our own legal system just to make a point?
...actually, my cost is exactly $0.00. My employer foots the bill (and counts it as a benefit, like a huge chunk of PDX area employers do). IIRC, the employers who do this end up paying quite a bit more than what it would cover, since on average, not everyone who works here takes the train. But then, on average, most employees around here seek it as a bennie if they have to commute.
I do agree that on average, the ticket price is ridiculously small compared to operating expenses. OTOH, even if the fare were to double, it would still be one hell of a bargain. Consider that it normally costs a commuter $10-15 a day to park his car in downtown PDX (unless he has the rare employer that offers free/validated parking), and this isn't counting gasoline costs. The ticket costs ~$5 now round trip if it takes more than two hours to do everything (fare schedule here), or $86 for a monthly pass. Broken down, it's still hella cheap at twice the price (and doubling the fees, while hard on the more impoverished among us, would likely pay for the system on its own).
That's not an entirely bad thing.
(You live in Oregon too, right?)
Now it would suck for those who live outside the metro areas, but I actually find that when I go into Portland, I prefer the MAX (train) to driving. Once you total up gas costs, parking fees, aggravation from driving down there... the train makes a hell of a lot more sense.
It's not just in metro areas anymore, though - unlike most states, Oregon is also expanding the lines outward from PDX - I'm hoping they stretch 'em out to the coast, down to Salem, and eventually a medium-rail run to Bend.
If you've ever had to deal with 217, 26, or I-5 up here, you'd be demanding more light rail too...
The best thing is - minimal office politics. There's you, a class, and maybe a head teacher telling you what to do. Co-ordination meetings, blame games, and clueless managers are hard to find.
I still remember when an exceptionally bright student I had, decided that he really liked taking narcotics (turns out that it's pretty common means for a kid to rebel against his/her strict Mormon family). He came in and spoke to me one day after he'd missed class. I made the (political) mistake of discreetly bringing a counselor in to get him some help, since this was something that was way over my head, and he needed the help. Less than an hour later, I was taking a drug test myself and getting hammered with questions by the superintendents because I was, and I quote: "too much of an influence" on my students. Later that year, a student decided that one of the lab servers was a great place to stash some ripped movies so he could share it with his friends at home (Kazaa was pretty new at the time). I spent three hours trying to explain to the superintendents that it was easily taken care of, the offending material was removed, and the MPAA take-down notice was satisfied as soon as the school received it (the files were up for less than 24 hours). I took two weeks' vacation to avoid being suspended, and the student got summarily thrown out for the rest of the semester.
I stuck it out about two years after that, and while the BS died down a lot over that time, eventually funding cuts wiped out seven teaching positions, mine included. The (IMPO) less- technically competent colleague was shifted to an administrative position, and the last CompSci instructor (who was within two years of retirement at the time) got to keep his.
Trust me - I prefer working out here in IT. At least it's the devil I know, and the salary more than makes up for it in most cases.
...what, and get sued?
(sadly, while originally typed that in a half-assed attempt to be funny, I can almost seeing the Xenuphiles doing exactly that...)
Agreed - I usually keep a mental tick of upcoming movies that I think may be worth a damn, so I can rent them later if they still come to mind by then (if it still draws my attention months after the flick came and went theater-wise, okay... I'll likely rent it, then maybe go back and buy the disc if it really is good).
The length of time has served me very well. Friends/family/whatever will usually mention whether or not it sucks balls, or if it's actually worth watching. I get that info long before it gets to the point where you can rent it legally... sort of like a slow but effective social filter, to catch the crap and obvious garbage.
The longer it takes them to get to the stage where I can see it in rental, the less inclined I am to bother with renting it, and thus probably not buy the damned thing. No skin off of mine if the studios want to lessen the chances of it getting to my living room...
They've read them, of course. They just conveniently ignore them.
So, err, which Mayan document d'ya figure contains that passage?
(...and how does a gross generalization become "informative", anyway?)
How much revenue does Washington State get from Microsoft? Not just in direct taxes but on all the taxes that the employees pay?
Washington has no state personal income tax, so it may not be as big as you surmise.
...all it would take is for a sharp judge in Washington State to tell Microsoft: "sorry - not our jurisdiction. Go to Vegas or Reno to get it taken care of".
"Do you go out of your way to find the way in which you can legally give the government the most possible tax revenue?"
Fair enough - but if that's the case, then let Microsoft lodge its licensing lawsuits and etc. in Nevada as well... where the laws are not as strongly in its favor.
Incidentally, my employer's corp headquarters is in the EU. Can I therefore claim the first $95k of my income as tax-exempt because it was earned "overseas", taking advantage of a wee tax loophole in spite of living in the US? Of course not - I'm not a corporation, so I have to claim the income as being earned right here in the US.