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AT&T's City-By-City Plan To Up Wireless Coverage

alphadogg writes "AT&T has created different mobile calling models for every major city in America as it tries to improve a network that has come under fire for poor performance as the data-friendly iPhone has proliferated, an executive said Thursday. Other carriers just use one nationwide calling model to plan for all cities, claimed CTO John Donovan, speaking at the Open Mobile Summit conference in San Francisco. The nation's second-largest mobile operator has had a hard time planning for bandwidth needs in the rapidly changing mobile world, Donovan said. AT&T has seen rapidly growing mobile data usage — and much criticism over its 3G coverage — as the exclusive iPhone carrier in the US. 'If a network is not fully loaded, it's hard to know exactly how much demand is out there,' Donovan said. 'You put all you can in the ground, and they eat it all up, and then you put more in there, and they eat it all up.'" The story notes that mobile data at AT&T has grown 4,932% over the last 3 years.

158 comments

  1. Umm, what? by lalena · · Score: 3, Informative

    If a network is not fully loaded, it's hard to know exactly how much demand is out there.

    1. Re:Umm, what? by mewsenews · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yeah, from the rest of his comment it seems he meant the exact opposite.

      "If the network *is* fully loaded, it's hard to know the demand, because you have 100% usage, add more capacity, and quickly hit 100% usage"

    2. Re:Umm, what? by FatAlb3rt · · Score: 2, Informative

      That's what I thought too, but I think it's poorly worded. I think he means, if we haven't fully loaded our towers with equipment and they're still maxed out, it's hard to know how much demand is out there.

      Still a cop out.

    3. Re:Umm, what? by Idiomatick · · Score: 1

      !not

    4. Re:Umm, what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If people keep buying, why not keep selling? I don't blame AT&T at all for being successful.

    5. Re:Umm, what? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1, Redundant

      The argument still doesn't make sense. They know they need more bandwidth because their network is constantly at 100%. The only thing to do is add more bandwidth. The only question is "do I spend a little and add 100% extra or do I spend a lot and add 1000% extra?" Since the past three years have seen over 4000% growth and more smartphones which make heavy use of data services are coming out all the time it seems reasonable to expect that 100% is probably not going to be enough.

      Even if you find your 1000% extra is only 50% utilised it will be 100% within 1 year.

      Bottom line: you need more bandwidth and probably can't add it fast enough. It's not a hard question to answer.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    6. Re:Umm, what? by TemporalBeing · · Score: 1

      If a network is not fully loaded, it's hard to know exactly how much demand is out there.

      Remember, ISPs (of which AT&T is one) take a bet that their users will never use 100% of their paid for bandwidth.
      Thus they base the network capacity on the usage demand, and try to provision only as much as they absolutely have to.
      This is why ISPs hate Net Neutrality - b/c they wouldn't be able to continue playing these games and get away with it.
      In this light, where demand determines how much actually gets provisioned, it makes sense. If max demand is 100, but only represents 10% of paid for demand, then that's all you need. If all of a sudden the bet that 10% of paid for demand is not longer good enough - and you need 20%, you have a major problem. B/c the equations tell you that the 10% is good enough, but now users are asking for 20%. You don't have all your users on the network but your demand and provisioning looks okay, until they all jump on.

      Honestly, they just need to provision 100% of what users are paying for; and figure out the growth rate and provision accordingly.

      --
      Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away. - Elvis Presley (source: imdb.com)
    7. Re:Umm, what? by postbigbang · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It's a telco monopolist mentality.

      Gosh, we build, then it's at capacity. That's not what we had with landlines!

      Remember: this isn't the AT&T of old, with wizened scholars. This is Southwest Bell that sucked up the other Baby Bells, then chose GSM as their infrastructure and got in over their heads. They're still clueless as to what success they've had as a result of Apple's business models. Apple, OTOH, could have 5x the customers if they simply shipped a (w)CDMA/GSM world phone.

      --
      ---- Teach Peace. It's Cheaper Than War.
    8. Re:Umm, what? by commodore64_love · · Score: 1

      >>>they base the network capacity on the usage demand, and try to provision only as much as they absolutely have to. This is why ISPs hate Net Neutrality
      >>>

      Net neutrality has nothing to do with underestimate of user demand. Net neutrality is about ensuring all websites are treated equally (i.e. no extra fees to access youtube, or no discounts to watch att.com). As for estimating demand, I would build 1000 times current capacity, figuring that demand has grown from 50k to 50 meg during the last ten years, and will probably keep growing at that rate upto 2020 at least.

      Aside -

      Wow. Arab TV doesn't censor much! I'm watching some news program (al-Alam), and they just showed a dead guy's swollen decaying body laying on the mortician's slab. Wow. We'd never see that stuff here on U.S. news

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - historian Evelyn Beatrice Hall
    9. Re:Umm, what? by Brikus · · Score: 1

      Apple does make a WCDMA/GSM world phone. It's called the iPhone. Although WCDMA does have CDMA in the name, it is actually the 3G air interface used in GSM phones.

    10. Re:Umm, what? by Angeliqe · · Score: 1

      Parent is correct. From the rest of the paragraph "You put all you can in the ground, and they eat it all up, and then you put more in there, and they eat it all up." He means it's impossible to know ahead of time how much bandwidth total you need until you have already installed it. It's a guessing game and trial and error. You install equipment. Monitor results. If monitoring reveals the bandwidth is still maxed, return to step 1.

    11. Re:Umm, what? by postbigbang · · Score: 1

      Sorry-- you're technically correct. I should have left off the W.

      --
      ---- Teach Peace. It's Cheaper Than War.
    12. Re:Umm, what? by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      He means that if all of the customers have not been signed up. He does not mean that all of the bandwidth is used up. You have to understand that he is speaking from a sales point of view, not a network admin's point of view.

    13. Re:Umm, what? by TemporalBeing · · Score: 1

      Net neutrality has nothing to do with underestimate of user demand. Net neutrality is about ensuring all websites are treated equally (i.e. no extra fees to access youtube, or no discounts to watch att.com).

      It has a lot more to do with Net Neutrality than you would imagine. What have the ISPs biggest reason for filtering networks and no longer maintaining neutral networks? P2P, BitTorrent, Video Traffic, etc. Why? B/c they eat a lot of bandwidth. Why is that a concern? B/c the ISPs don't provision enough bandwidth. They don't provision what is paid for (which is what users expect), but provision some arbitrary amount of it based on some bets they take against the user. In both cases, how is this easily resolved: Force the ISPs to allocate each user 100% of what they pay for (e.g. get rid of the bets the ISPs currently make), and allow ISPs to rightfully limit each user connection to only what they pay for - data from anywhere but only as much as they are paying for, e.g. a subscriber for a 10Mbit line would be allowed to use 10Mbps of P2P traffic if they so desired, or 10Mbps of websites, video, etc. But only 10 Mbps, not 11 Mbps, not 10.5 Mbps. The two go a lot more hand-in-hand than you realize. Though you are right that NetNeutrality goes far beyond just this - I'm primarily talking about the quot;last mile", while you also have to maintain a backbone connection big enough to service that level of demand.

      As for estimating demand, I would build 1000 times current capacity, figuring that demand has grown from 50k to 50 meg during the last ten years, and will probably keep growing at that rate upto 2020 at least.

      The problem is cost. ISPs make the bets the do - e.g. provision 40% of what users pay for instead of 100% - b/c of cost. Bandwidth from their POV (laying lines, etc.) is very expensive, and they don't want to lay more lines than they have to. So they bet that users won't use as much as they pay for - they bet even though you're paying for 26 terabits per month, you'll be happy with just 250 gigabits (or 1% of what you are paying for). God forbid you want even 2% of what you pay for.

      --
      Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away. - Elvis Presley (source: imdb.com)
    14. Re:Umm, what? by pnuema · · Score: 1

      HE WAS MISQUOTED. Jeez. Typo.

    15. Re:Umm, what? by fireslack · · Score: 1

      I think what he means is that they have no way of knowing how much extra bandwidth they need in certain areas. There's no way to measure how much more you need, the yard stick is clipped at 100%. You can only add more incrementally until your cell sites are no longer saturated. Only then would you be able to determine how much you need.

      --
      This sig only exists because you are observing it.
    16. Re:Umm, what? by Brikus · · Score: 1

      Which is the best kind of correct ;) Don't feel bad; the alphabet soup of cellular air interfaces and protocols is very confusing.

    17. Re:Umm, what? by ScottForbes · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Honestly, they just need to provision 100% of what users are paying for; and figure out the growth rate and provision accordingly.

      ...and there'd only be 50 cell phones per city, because no one else could afford one. (Back when AT&T was a monopoly, this was actually the business model: Cell phones were planned as a high-end luxury item found only in limousines and such.) For guaranteed 100% availability of "what users are paying for," every cell site in the network would have to have one radio channel per customer... and that channel would sit idle and unused 99.9% of the time, but it still has to be there, ready and waiting, in case all 50 customers are stuck in the same traffic jam.

      To borrow a downthread commenter's analogy, this is the difference between paying for 1.5Mbps DSL and running a full-bore T-1 line to your house: One of these things costs 5x more than the other, and if we insist that ISPs build to that capacity level then most of today's customers will be priced out of the market.

      Not that AT&T couldn't have done a better job of growing their capacity, but they really do have a tiger by the tail here: The iPhone is hammering their data network like nothing before or since. Even if they had accurately forecasted the iPhone's impact, they wouldn't have been able to build enough capacity in time.

    18. Re:Umm, what? by Bruha · · Score: 1

      It's hard to keep up on the wireless side.

      I have advocated jumping a generation in bandwidth for trunks, but it's been ignored completely.

      There were DS3's when CDPD was the major wireless data plan. Then 3G1x aka 2.5g forced upgrades to OC-3, 3G forced upgrades to OC-12's, and expansion on that end is forcing up to OC-48's. Now they realize that they had to move from central ISP uplinks to ones closer to the cell towers, and LTE will force those links to move even closer possibly to nearby CO locations rather than even the nearest carrier switching locations. With LTE you will see them aggregating gigabit circuits to cell towers and backhauling that to MTSO locations vs regional locations. Either way for any company it's a battle to keep up with explosive demand, and that's just bandwidth. Lets not get into how many ip's we have to pull out of our asses each month to keep up with new ip enabled phones.

    19. Re:Umm, what? by hedwards · · Score: 1

      Mostly yes, but not quite. What they're betting is that people won't use 100% of their bandwidth at the same time. If a third or so use there's in the earlyish morning, and the rest are split between night and afternoon, that's a whole lot different than if 2/3 tried to use theirs in the afternoon.

    20. Re:Umm, what? by mr100percent · · Score: 1

      According to rumors, a CDMA/GSM phone could be in the works

  2. 4932% Growth - Imagine That by Technomonics · · Score: 2, Insightful

    And if they didnt sign the exclusive deal with Apple, what do you think that growth would have been? Just saying they are complaining all the way to the bank on this one.

    1. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Still, this whole network thing has hurt their image. If and when Apple ends the exclusivity, there will be people clamoring to leave AT&T in droves.

    2. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by Penguinisto · · Score: 1

      Err, Verizon has been making advertising gold out of it. Note that I'm not a fan of Verizon, but the "there's a map for that" commercials have to be striking a bad chord over at AT&T headquarters right about now...

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    3. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by StreetStealth · · Score: 5, Insightful

      As someone who just signed up for two years with AT&T, I can't wait for the iPhone exclusivity to end. Not because I want to jump ship, but because it should make things better for everyone.

      The people who are the heaviest users and the most dissatisfied with the service will pretty quickly cough up the ETF and switch to the first competitor that offers it. After a few months, this alone may very well have a noticeable effect on network performance.

      More importantly, though, as AT&T actually begins to feel the financial effects of fleeing iPhone users, they're going to have no choice but to ramp up the infrastructure upgrades to compete. In other words, the market will actually start working like it's supposed to.

      --
      Your mind is clear / The things that you fear / Will fade with how much you / Believe what you hear
    4. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by jeffstar · · Score: 1

      "he story notes that mobile data at AT&T has grown 4,932% over the last 3 years."

      3 years ago mobile data traffic was probably nearly zero, so putting this in relative terms means nothing to me.

      I wonder how much traffic their feeble network is actually dealing with? Imagine it was only 100 MB/s off each cell site and they are whinging like this...

    5. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by Afforess · · Score: 1

      It's like complaining that you need to buy more wheelbarrows to carry the wads of cash to the bank. I really don't pity them.

      --
      If our elected representatives no longer represent us, do we still live in a Democracy?
    6. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by Yvan256 · · Score: 1

      With the last firmware update, even a Nintendo DSi can be used to upload photos to a Facebook account. I know the DSi is not 3G, but the title of the summary only says "mobile data".

    7. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by Deosyne · · Score: 1

      Very true. It was one of the key reasons why I took back an iPhone about a month ago and waited for the release of the Droid instead. Quite a few people have told me great things about Verizon's network while AT&T has been miserable on my company Blackjack. I figured it was just a crap phone only to find the same level of service on the iPhone, which is a pretty good hardware platform otherwise.

    8. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by TooMuchToDo · · Score: 1

      Urban cell towers usually get fiber backhauls, but rural and sometimes even suburban towers usually have either T1 backhauls or microwave back to an aggregation point.

    9. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by Andy+Dodd · · Score: 1

      There's one thing about the iPhone situation that really annoys me:

      AT&T has tiered pricing for data plans for phones based on its capabilities (i.e. estimating just how much of that "unlimited" data you will actually use depending on whether the phone is a PDA phone, or just a dumbphone, etc.) Tethering users, of course, get hit the hardest ($60/mo and they actually have a specifically documented usage cap). PDA users with keyboards get hit second hardest (formerly $40/mo, now down to $30/mo).

      iPhone users, despite being probably the heaviest data users on the network, are in the second least expensive data pricing tier ($20/mo I believe, with "dumbphones" with basic WAP browsers the only thing lower on the list at $15 I think.)

      --
      retrorocket.o not found, launch anyway?
    10. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by Dragonslicer · · Score: 1

      the "there's a map for that" commercials have to be striking a bad chord over at AT&T headquarters right about now...

      You missed that whole lawsuit thing a couple days ago, huh?

    11. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      iPhone 3G/3GS = $30/mo
      Original iPhone was $20/mo, but it was also 2G-only

      I agree with the sentiment, though. They should charge based on speed tiers, but they can't because you're frequently on 2G speeds anyway

      BTW, Verizon prices the same way -- $10/mo for dumbphones, $30/mo for smartphones, $45/mo for "business" smartphone users, and $60/mo for tethering

    12. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by Anonymusing · · Score: 1

      iPhone's data plan is $30/month. I think that, technically, it has a 5gb monthly cap on bandwidth.

      It does not include tethering, though I wish it did.

      --
      Liberal? Conservative? Compare perspectives at Left-Right
    13. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by zn0k · · Score: 1

      The data plan for the iPhone is still showing up as $30/month for the normal version. Officially ActiveSync requires an Enterprise data plan, which is $40/month (though ActiveSync runs fine on either).

    14. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by modemboy · · Score: 1

      No you are wrong. The iPhone data plan is $30 a month.

    15. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by PeterChenoweth · · Score: 1

      The *original* iPhone data plan is $20/month. And I say "is", because it's still a valid plan if you own an original iPhone. It's "unlimited" data (2G:Edge) and 200 text messages. AT&T's argument for being cheaper is because the original iPhone was (I think) the only PDA-like device they sold that could not take advantage of the 3G network. Ergo, it does not put as much demand on their network as a 3G device, and is thus bundled with a cheaper data plan.

      The 3G and 3GS iPhone plans are priced exactly the same as every other AT&T PDA phone. That is, $30/month for "unlimited" data and NO text messages. Same as a Blackberry. Same as a WindowsMobile phone. Text Messaging is an additional charge with the iPhone 3G, & 3GS, just like it is with every other plan.

      The only difference between an iPhone 3G/3GS plan and all the other PDA phones is that with a WindowsMobile/Blackberry data plan, you can "officially" add tethering to your data plan for +$30/month. AT&T doesn't allow you to add tethering to the iPhone plan. And since the iPhone technically *can* tether, the reason they don't allow it is because AT&T knows their network is strained as it is now. Adding a X-thousand geeks tethering their iPhones might just bring down the whole damn system. At least, that's what I was told by an AT&T employee that claimed to be in the know.

      I won't argue that the prices are too expensive, or that the 5GB/month bandwidth cap is silly, but the newer iPhones are not given preferential treatment, data-plan wise.

    16. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The building I work in (Greater LA area) has both T-Mobile and AT&T towers on the roof. The AT&T tower has a 48 strands of multi mode fiber pulled to it. It doesn't touch any active equipment here, so I have no clue what they are running over it. The T-Mobile tower has 6 strands of MM fiber and does actually touch active equipment here. Over that they are running 3 T1s for service to the tower. I don't know how that splits between voice/data, but that seems like it would be a maximum of ~4.5 Mbit or 72 calls.

    17. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by kimvette · · Score: 1

      It's advertised as unlimited so they cannot legally cap it. Doing so would be fraud.

      --
      The Christian Right is Neither (Christian nor right). See: Matthew 23, Matthew 25, Ezekiel 16:48-50
    18. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by Anonymusing · · Score: 1

      I see from looking around online that you are correct. I may be think of Verizon's "unlimited" EVDO data service, which had a notice in the fine print that stated a 5gb limit (or maybe it was 10gb). The customer rep pointed this out to me when I signed up a year ago. I've since cancelled it, since I no longer need it.

      I don't use 5gb/data a month anyway, so it is a moot point.

      --
      Liberal? Conservative? Compare perspectives at Left-Right
    19. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1

      More importantly, though, as AT&T actually begins to feel the financial effects of fleeing iPhone users, they're going to have no choice but to ramp up the infrastructure upgrades to compete.

      Not necessarily.

      Remember that profit is revenue minus expenses. So if AT&T brings in $10,000,000 but has to spend $5,000,000 improving their network, that's a $5,000,000 profit. On the other hand, if 1/3 of AT&T subscribers leave, AT&T brings in $6,666,666 but they don't have to worry about improving their network now that 1/3 of the previous users have left. So they make more money with fewer customers.

    20. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by 4phun · · Score: 1

      The people who are the heaviest users and the most dissatisfied with the service will pretty quickly cough up the ETF and switch to the first competitor that offers it. After a few months, this alone may very well have a noticeable effect on network performance.

      More importantly, though, as AT&T actually begins to feel the financial effects of fleeing iPhone users, they're going to have no choice but to ramp up the infrastructure upgrades to compete. In other words, the market will actually start working like it's supposed to.



      How do you explain Verizon's switch to a heft $350 ETF for Droid and BlackBerry users on Nov 16? It looks to me like they fear new offerings on AT&T will continue to draw the cream of their user base. There are only a handful of users who have bought droid as of today but to read the posts on Gizmodo they have already discovered a lot of pain compared to the AT&T iPhone. No one seems really thought through what they were going to give up by picking up a Droid.

      The funniest Gizmodo recommendation was for Droid users to also buy a Zune in order to do video and TV if that is what they want. This sort of discovery causes dissatisfied people to want to immediately get rid of their new high tech toy.
    21. Re:4932% Growth - Imagine That by Wireless+Joe · · Score: 1

      Your only hope is that Tmobile picks it up, as Apple has stated they're not going to build a CDMA iPhone. Would you trust Tmobile to handle a 5,000% increase in data traffic? They've had two major outages in the last month, under regular traffic. Otherwise, you have to wait for LTE deployment, and then for Apple to develop and release an LTE device, at which point you might be better off sticking with AT&T, as they'll have more towers up than Verizon (because GSM required denser tower distribution) meaning they'll probably have better coverage.

  3. TFA has nothing to do with coverage by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It talks much more about AT&T's push towards IPv6 to accommodate more devices.

    However, it's very true that people keep eating up the wireless bandwidth. These companies need to realize that unless something changes, mobile is the new "last mile."

    1. Re:TFA has nothing to do with coverage by Yvan256 · · Score: 4, Funny

      Thankfully we don't have this "last mile" problem in Canada. We use metric!

    2. Re:TFA has nothing to do with coverage by Duradin · · Score: 1

      Last Mile's a Last Mile, but they call it "Le Last Mile".

    3. Re:TFA has nothing to do with coverage by jayspec462 · · Score: 1

      "Le Last Mile."

      What do they call a hogshead?

      --
      $comment =~ s/($verb)\s+($noun)/IN SOVIET RUSSIA, $2 $1s YOU!/g;
    4. Re:TFA has nothing to do with coverage by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't know, I didn't go into a Burger King.

    5. Re:TFA has nothing to do with coverage by sconeu · · Score: 1

      I knew it! It *IS* Canada's fault! BLAME CANADA!!!!

      --
      General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
    6. Re:TFA has nothing to do with coverage by hey! · · Score: 1

      Well, a hogshead is about 14,533 cubic inches, which makes a cube-root-hogshead about 24.403 inches -- very close to two feet.
      So a mile being 5280 feet, you can talk about last 2600 cube-root-hogshead problem.

      Note how this also means you can replace the mess of units used for car mileage (miles and reciprocal gallons) with a single unit -- the hogshead, and a simple ratio exponent.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  4. First Post! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    This would of been the first post, but I'm in new york and posting from my iphone

    1. Re:First Post! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      would *have*

    2. Re:First Post! by kimvette · · Score: 1

      He was trying to save precious time so he posted "of" instead, thereby saving two keystrokes. Sadly, being an AT&T customer in a metropolitan area, he still couldn't get it.

      --
      The Christian Right is Neither (Christian nor right). See: Matthew 23, Matthew 25, Ezekiel 16:48-50
    3. Re:First Post! by denttford · · Score: 1

      Is there a map for this?

      --

      Leben Sie jetzt die Fragen.
  5. Bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "You put all you can in the ground, and they eat it all up, and then you put more in there, and they eat it all up"

    This is the typical, in this case subtle (but in other cases not subtle) blaming of the consumer for overusing network resources beyond some mythical "reasonable/predictable" amount that service providers cling to in rationalizing their retarded infrastructure expansion plans.

    News flash: your network and every other corporate network is at capacity already and you're overselling subscriptions. Don't add one tower and then complain that those data-hungry fiends are using the new bandwidth so quickly. Either think big and grow some balls about expanding your network, or quit complaining and admit that you've resigned to mediocrity.

    1. Re:Bullshit by cyberjock1980 · · Score: 5, Informative

      I do have some (very small) sympathy for a company that has seen a 5000% growth in data traffic. Who can realistically plan for that kind of growth?

      But, this is not the customer's fault either. Plan better. And how about you stop laying more people off? If you are growing at these record levels why are there lots of articles about layoffs in the last 3 years? I don't understand this. I'll admit that data growth != customer growth but why the huge layoffs?

      http://www.techworld.com.au/article/269777/t_cut_12_000_employees_through_2009

      Apparently AT&T has 12000 unemployed former employees from just this year. Sounds like bad planning across the board. Maybe this is a good indicator that the top executives are totally clueless to the actual situation of their company.

    2. Re:Bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      This has always been how these communications companies act.

      Read newspapers from the late 1890s. We see the same attitude coming out of Continental Telegraph, Union Telegraph & Transmission, and the other big players in those days.

      Instead of improving their telegraph networks, some of them would impose a limit of no more than 10 words per telegraph when the load got too high.

      Different companies, different technology, same fuck-the-customer business attitudes.

    3. Re:Bullshit by MobyDisk · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Bandwidth does not scale with number of employees.

    4. Re:Bullshit by Penguinisto · · Score: 1

      Who can realistically plan for that kind of growth?

      A whole lot of us in the 1990's watched ISPs face exactly that kind of network growth (and worse...)

      Now to be fair, I think the only saving grace back then was that the tech and infrastructure were relatively slow to catch up, let alone exceed the expanding capacity (that is, most folks had a crappy 14,4k modem, then a crappy 28,8k modem, then their phone lines wouldn't give them the full 56k, etc). Also, the bigger your home pipe, the more expensive it got - ISDN was hovering at around $160/month (IIRC) minus the various carrier connect fees, T1s cost you at least $3k to install (if you were lucky and very close to a CO) and then cost at least $300/mo, just to keep it warm.

      By the time DSL showed up and the Cablecos jumped in, there was enough backbone to handle it (well, most of the time), and kept growing like crazy right up to the dot-bust.

      (could be wrong, and hopefully someone will helpfully point the wrong bits out, but that's how I semi-remember it...)

      /P

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    5. Re:Bullshit by sohp · · Score: 2, Interesting

      No sympathy from me. If the spokesdroid was being honest, he'd say "You take all the money you get from the government to put all you can in the ground, spend that money on executive bonuses and lobbyists, and then implement bandwidth restrictions to cover up your incompetence and greed. Oh yeah, you also use that as an excuse to kick your competitors off your incumbent network."

    6. Re:Bullshit by interkin3tic · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This is the typical, in this case subtle (but in other cases not subtle) blaming of the consumer for overusing network resources beyond some mythical "reasonable/predictable" amount that service providers cling to in rationalizing their retarded infrastructure expansion plans.

      Indeed, it's telling that THEY HAVEN'T STOPPED ADVERTISING.

      Car metaphor: you're a car dealership. You run some ads in which you say "Buy our cars: we have them to sell", and then you sell all the cars you have. Do you
      A: Order more cars to sell
      B: Stop running the ads, since, no, you don't have cars to sell
      C: Complain about customers buying your product faster than you expected while still running the ads and not buying more cars

    7. Re:Bullshit by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      I do have some (very small) sympathy for a company that has seen a 5000% growth in data traffic. Who can realistically plan for that kind of growth?

      Yes, when you order millions of iPhones, your subscriber base grows SUBSTANTIALLY and you offer unlimited data as a requirement it is to be expected. You are talking about the most hyped device in recent history, people were all over it long before it launched. We're not talking about Android which is really still a geek target and not something the general public cares about (yet) or Pre which really isn't impressive to anyone.

      You know your blackberry users USE data and they don't have unlimited plans. There is no valid excuse for this condition. Its not 'some overloading in a few locations that grew faster than expected' its 'the entire network is overloaded, and was overloaded on the day of release'. Its 'We didn't plan for our 3G release, even after having a YEAR of the older model getting high data usage.

      You can plan for it rather easy. You give some phones out in advanced and see how they get used. (We'll call this the original iPhone which was give out a YEAR before the 3G model) Find the average usage (Mine is roughly ~200MB/month and I'm a light user), multiply that by the number of phones that were expected to sell, or AT LEAST by the number YOU BOUGHT TO SELL FROM YOUR OWN STORES ON THE FIRST DAY (which they did pre-orders so again, plenty of data to work with), and thats at least a starting point, but they didn't bother to do that.

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
    8. Re:Bullshit by Blakey+Rat · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      So if they have a redundant (say) janitor, they should re-train him to do high-capacity networking instead of cleaning toilets? Is that what you're getting at?

      Here's a pro-tip: employees aren't interchangeable cogs.

    9. Re:Bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "I do have some (very small) sympathy for a company that has seen a 5000% growth in data traffic. Who can realistically plan for that kind of growth?"

      Just ask the AT&T, not AT&T mobility: remember the internet circa 2000? Broadband was just taking off, the networks got congested and AT&T laid more pipes. Nothing different from "increased data usage" being talked in this post (didn't broadband usage go up 5000% as well back in 2003?)--the trend has been there (read WIFI) that people prefer wireless surfing than desktop surfing...if it's just as fast.
      Did AT&T Mobility not do their homework? They could have went to AT&T (parent) and looked at the broadband trends and marketing research and planned accordingly on the wireless side. Well, they likely did, but went with the gamble that the iPhone wasn't going to do so well and saved some cash. They got called on that gamble and had no plan B, and now spending that cash to build up on-demand. If the build up is done right, that may save them some money at the expensive of customers! That my friend deserves no sympathy--and hence consumers go where it's better (Tmo or VZW)...

      Note on T-Mo's network, with a few million sidekick, G1 and Hero users and its network is holding up just fine--and they're rolling out 7.2HSPDA currently (rumor has it that it was the cause of the outage earlier this week) and HSPDA+ by next summer, so I think it's moot to ding them as worse than AT&T.

    10. Re:Bullshit by Carbaholic · · Score: 1

      That is growth in data usage, not growth in customer base or profits.

    11. Re:Bullshit by babblefrog · · Score: 1

      Tell that to my company.

    12. Re:Bullshit by Andy+Dodd · · Score: 1

      Yup. I know of a company out West that's laying off 800 employees, meanwhile in certain departments, they're hiring employees. (General thing seems to be MechEs/general support staff are getting laid off, EEs with RF experience are getting hired.)

      Sometimes layoffs are less about downsizing than about skillset readjustment. Many of those 12000 may have been in AT&T's broadband and landline divisions with no possible place in AT&T Wireless.

      Also, as others have said, bandwidth doesn't necessarily scale with employees, in this case the limiting factors are:
      1) Sites where new towers are permitted. People bitch about coverage and network performance but scream even louder when someone wants to put a cell site nearby. Even if it's "pretty-ized", people bitch about that evil RF that might possibly give them cancer, even though 1 minute in sunlight is going to increase your chances of cancer more than a lifetime of RF exposure at any reasonable distance from a cell tower. (Reasonable distance being defined as "you weren't a dumbass that broke the lock on the fence surrounding the tower and climbed the tower".)

      2) FCC licenses for new towers take a lot of paperwork and time

      3) Equipment costs - this is nowhere near as much of a problem as 1) and 2) are though, especially 1)

      --
      retrorocket.o not found, launch anyway?
    13. Re:Bullshit by Andy+Dodd · · Score: 1

      Actually, the article linked that provoked this discussion pretty much says it:

      "The company tried to soften the blow by saying it will add employees in some areas, such as wireless, video and broadband, in order to meet customer demand. Many non-management employees who are affected will have a guaranteed job offer as stipulated in union contracts, AT&T said."

      Looks like AT&T's layoffs were in divisions OTHER than wireless. Probably the oldskool long-distance telephone market - not a good place to be nowadays.

      --
      retrorocket.o not found, launch anyway?
    14. Re:Bullshit by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Bandwidth growth might, though. Someone needs to put glass in the ground, after all.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    15. Re:Bullshit by dkleinsc · · Score: 1

      Part and parcel of choice C, though, is in this case continuing to sell cars you don't have.

      Unless some sort of SLA is built into the standard consumer contract, which I highly highly doubt, the real kicker is that cell phone service isn't guaranteed at all, and in fact the only thing preventing AT&T from not providing any bandwidth for data is the possibility that people will jump to another carrier. AT&T would love to be in the business of selling nothing to people, because nothing is extremely cheap to produce.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    16. Re:Bullshit by Lord+Ender · · Score: 1

      AT&T's land-line revenue is shrinking at a fantastic rate. The people who work in the land-line divisions are simply going to continue to lose their jobs. It's inevitable, and it's not T's fault. You can't take someone from the land-line billing department, stick a shovel in her hand, and tell her to go build cell towers.

      --
      A slashdotter who didn't build his own computer is like a Jedi who didn't build his own lightsaber.
    17. Re:Bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      "Who can realistically plan for that kind of growth?"

      Did the government come in and MAKE AT&T keep selling iPhones well beyond their means to support existing customers? It's not like people are free to create their own iPhones and suddenly jump on AT&T bandwidth.

      AT&T and Apple have the power (and responsibility) to limit selling new phones/subscriptions if they can no longer provide service to their existing customers. Of course neither business wants to do that. They would prefer to pack in as many people as they can stuff onto the ride. Who cares if they ride sucks because people are sitting on top of one another, right?

      I have no sympathy whosoever for AT&T. They kept selling the phones. They knew what kind of usage people were going to need. They knew they couldn't support it. Yet they kept on taking money.

    18. Re:Bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That was an analogy, not a metaphor.

    19. Re:Bullshit by ChiRaven · · Score: 1

      What you're not following is that the layoffs are in AT&T's declining LANDLINE business, and the growth is in the AT&T WIRELESS business. They have deliberately kept these two businesses separate since the inception of wireless in the 1970's, and have never allowed technical or service people to move freely from one to the other.

    20. Re:Bullshit by raddan · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but revenue does. So if he's complaining that they can't meet capacity because they don't have enough money or manpower, well, that's just bullshit. They have the ability to change both of those factors at any time.

      Right-of-way and building permits are a different story, though, especially for towers. Those really do take time.

    21. Re:Bullshit by cthulhu11 · · Score: 1

      I do have some (very small) sympathy for a company that has seen a 5000% growth in data traffic

      I'd like to see the demoninator in that calculation, ie., my first-blush response to that figure is to suspect that three years ago they had very few people using a service that wasn't very useful on crummy phones that couldn't be tethered.

    22. Re:Bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The company tried to soften the blow by saying it will add employees in some areas, such as wireless, video and broadband,

      It sounds like the landline areas of the company got reduced, and the data areas increased.. As many people now only have cell phones, this is somewhat logical, although there is still a lot of physical support for infrastructure needed with the other 3 dividions they increased jobs in... The problem with everyone, not just you.. is that to them AT&T is AT&T.. when in reality, there is AT&T the traditional phone company.. there is AT&T the internet service provider.. there is AT&T the mobile phone service.. and most of you just don't care, if you have a problem in one area, they all suck.

  6. Hard to know demand? by Reason58 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Take any area on Earth where you are not at max capacity and then model data usage per phone. Done. In what way is this difficult for a multi-national megacorp?

    1. Re:Hard to know demand? by Yvan256 · · Score: 1

      The way I undestand it, before the iPhone the used data bandwidth was negligible. How the hell where they supposed to plan for a nearly 5000-fold increase in demand?

    2. Re:Hard to know demand? by PPalmgren · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It isn't a 5000-fold increase, its 5000% increase, which amounts to 50 times more data usage. They used that data representation to make it seem overwhelming when in fact it could have easily been projected with the first 6 months of iPhone usage. I usually play the devil's advocate, but I will never give AT&T that benefit. They are one of the sleaziest companies in the US. Getting angry because you are spending your customer's money on frivolous bullshit rather than increasing capacity in what they paid for is pathetic.

    3. Re:Hard to know demand? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It didn't come all at once, you know. It's not like the iPhone adoption skyrocketed overnight. If you look at the numbers and graphics in the fucking article, it's been a rather gradual adoption curve.

      It just comes down to them not planning very well. Wouldn't be surprised if it's because they have managers with absolutely no technological experience making critical technological decisions.

      That's often what happens when you get people with a background in finance, commerce, law, economics, "management" and "administration" trying to run a technology company. They underestimate usage, or resort to fucking over their customers instead of making capital improvements.

    4. Re:Hard to know demand? by NotBornYesterday · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That's a nearly 5000 percent increase, not a 5000 fold increase. Yes, 5000% is still a lot of growth, but it is two orders of magnitude less than you perceive it to be. (5000% increase = 50-fold increase)

      In answer to your question of how to plan for huge growth, there were several factors they should have paid better attention to.
      1) Exclusivity. they knew getting into this deal that iPhones would grab a huge user base, which is why they negotiated an exclusive contract. Conclusion: More users = more traffic.
      2) Design. The iPhone is designed to leverage a 3g data network. Conclusion: More iPhones = more traffic per user than other cell phones.
      3) History. IPhones have been out for what, 2 1/2 to 3 years? Presumably, they are able to look at traffic on a per-user basis and conclude that average iPhone users consume X mbits of bandwidth. Multiply that by your sales figures, and subtract that from your current capacity. Project your results out a year or so. Wherever you have a deficit, you need to ramp up your coverage. Conclusion: Someone's not paying very close attention in the Planning Department while Sales is still cashing customers' checks.

      --
      I prefer rogues to imbeciles because they sometimes take a rest.
    5. Re:Hard to know demand? by immakiku · · Score: 1

      50-fold?

    6. Re:Hard to know demand? by curunir · · Score: 1

      That would be all well and good, except that we're talking about mobile phones. Pretty much by design, they tend to move around a bit. So it may be easy to tell how much overall capacity you'll need on your network, but it's not as simple as arriving at that result and deploying that amount...you need to figure out the property capacity for each location covered by your network.

      And because of this, if you want to have the capacity to handle all traffic on your network, you'll need more capacity than the total that will be used by users. For instance, you'll need a lot of capacity in the financial districts of cities that will be largely unused at night. Also, you'll need a ton of capacity at ballparks and stadiums that will be almost entirely unused when there's no event taking place. And what do you do when everyone goes home for the holidays? Airports will almost certainly have to have greater capacity to handle the onslaught of travelers and I'm pretty sure more people go back east for the holidays than go west, so you have to account for the increased network usage caused by that temporary migration.

      And, worse yet, things are in a constant state of flux. Buildings get built that block the signal from a tower to a certain area. Every day new customers are signing up and old customers are leaving so the distribution in the location of subscribers can change. And the demographics of your customer base can change too. Imagine you're in charge of planning the roll out of AT&T's towers and come into work one day to find that your company has signed an exclusive deal with a trendy hardware manufacturer to sell a phone which is really the first mainstream internet tablet even though it doubles as a phone. Suddenly the demands on your network have shifted significantly towards data from voice.

      None of this is meant to suggest that a company the size of AT&T shouldn't be able to solve the problem, but only that the problem is much more difficult than you make it out to be. When you think through the problem, there's a lot more variables than you're realizing. Companies with fewer resources than AT&T solve harder problems all the time, so the fact that the problem is hard isn't an excuse.

      --
      "Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos!"
    7. Re:Hard to know demand? by Ilgaz · · Score: 1

      My cell provider having 37 million users, heavily advertising 3G even with the "network nightmare" 3G USB dongles has no issue with bandwidth, we are also overseas which means 100-200 ms ping response from American sites.

      The GSM towers, routers etc. are really advanced devices of their own kind. They report everything including the bandwidth utilization. Even $30 el cheapo cable modem reports more than we actually need. Did you check the amount of data which is available via SNMP? Now imagine $100K, $200K cell tower.

    8. Re:Hard to know demand? by Duhavid · · Score: 1

      Simulation,
      Understanding the phone and how it acts
      Trials in limited areas with limited numbers of customers, so they could get an idea what the averages in the wild might be.
      Watching the system usage as they added more devices.

      --
      emt 377 emt 4
    9. Re:Hard to know demand? by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1

      [...] they knew getting into this deal that iPhones would grab a huge user base, which is why they negotiated an exclusive contract. Conclusion: More users = more traffic.

      In theory, no they didn't.

      Keep in mind that, outside the Apple Fanboi sites, confidence wasn't all that high. It wasn't known whether the iPhone was going to be another iPod (huge market share) or another Mac (small market share). AT&T had phones running Internet Explorer, what's to say that the iPhone was going to be much bigger?

      It's easy to be a Monday morning quarterback and say, "They should have known!" But suppose AT&T had spent tons of money to upgrade their network and the iPhone had flopped?

    10. Re:Hard to know demand? by NotBornYesterday · · Score: 1

      I still think that the contract they negotiated indicates the kind of response they expected, but even if they initially assumed it would be a flop, the data usage metrics for the new users should have been a red flag for them a couple years ago. Even if they didn't know what they were getting into, they should have been able to figure it out pretty quickly.

      --
      I prefer rogues to imbeciles because they sometimes take a rest.
  7. Shame on ATT for blaming anyone but themselves... by Super+Dave+Osbourne · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This guy's quote is BS, if you as the owner of your traffic don't know how much demand there is either by system monitoring and/or usage patterns for specific type clients (with demograhaphics tagged along with it, because ATT sure as hell knows its clients profiles and/or can buy such data from 3rd parties) then they need to get out of the business. Either way ATT has slacked on its network, let Verizon (good for them) to compete and do it well and then blame poor performance and oversell on its lack of knowledge. That is just BS, they know, don't care until it hurts in the pocket... And exclusive contracts with big hardware vendors does't help the public, its own customer base, as well as its image. Shame on ATT.

  8. AT&T's new marketing for this by idontgno · · Score: 3, Funny

    "We've upped our 3G network coverage! So up yours!"

    --
    Welcome to the Panopticon. Used to be a prison, now it's your home.
  9. Not a network admin, is he? by girlintraining · · Score: 4, Insightful

    'If a network is not fully loaded, it's hard to know exactly how much demand is out there,' Donovan said. 'You put all you can in the ground, and they eat it all up, and then you put more in there, and they eat it all up.'"

    You've never done any kind of network administration, have you Mr. Donovan? You designed your network for average use, not peak use. As anyone who designs networks for a living will tell you -- it will function perfectly well until it reaches close to or at 100% utilization, at which point it'll choke and die horribly. Had you excercised proper engineering methodology, you would have known to test each product/application being put on the network in test markets and used the use data to predict what the peak would be, and then only deploy it when you had a 20-50% greater capacity than what the data suggests.

    But alas, you eschewed best practices to save a few bucks -- all those profitable quarters and executive kickbacks, all the while your towers were backhauled on 512kbit DSL and fractional T1s. Your infrastructure's been rotting for a long time, sir, and the iPhone has nothing to do with your failure as an executive to execute a proper deployment plan that accounts for growth. You should be ashamed: The chinese mobile phone network has over 500 million subscribers, and their plans are cheaper, have better options, and their infrastructure is far more modern. China has similar problems to the United States in terms of rural development and rugged terrain for deployment -- and yet you've abjectly failed to not only do your case studies, but even do exploratory research within your own market.

    It's amazing that this level of incompetence is rewarded by our society.

    --
    #fuckbeta #iamslashdot #dicemustdie
    1. Re:Not a network admin, is he? by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It's amazing that this level of incompetence is rewarded by our society.

      Unfortunately it's not amazing. It's so common and so frequently noticed that we've become blasé about it. The system of cronyism between rich people has utterly eliminated accountability and actual performance incentives (rather than fake ones), to the point where their precious "free market" in labor doesn't work at all.

      It used to be that when you scrambled your way to the top, you had to keep scrambling because someone young and hungry was coming up behind you. Nowadays the gap between the rich at the top and the next layer down has become such a vast gulf, there's no worries that any hard scrambler can ever cross it. Even if he scrambles REALLY hard, the odds he'll ever scramble hard enough to be able to afford to get into your precious country club are slim to none. The membership fee rises faster than his piddly "fortune".

      I used to think it was possible to scramble hard enough, until some helpful soul on Slashdot pointed out the folly of my optimism. I believed in the American Dream, until Slashdot very unkindly pointed out that class mobility in the United States has never been lower, and it's REALLY low. Thanks Slashdot. You killed my dream. Bastards.

    2. Re:Not a network admin, is he? by Esteanil · · Score: 1

      I used to think it was possible to scramble hard enough

      Well. Here's the thing. See how the recession's ending? That's because of the new budding tech bubble. This one does have rather a lot more substance than the .com bubble did, though.
      Retrain yourself in the newest, most fashionable technologies out there, and be adaptable enough to pick up new tech in a week or two. Focus hard on your specific business area, then get a couple of employees - someone to boss around and a pro sales person. Then expand as rapidly as possible (better get started soon, good techs are gonna be much harder to hire in half a year).
      Or even better, start a business doing something you really believe in and work 12/365 for a few years. I'm pretty sure you'll get there if you scramble :-)

      --
      I'm a dreamer, the world is my playpen. But hey, I'm a serious person, I can't dream all the time.
    3. Re:Not a network admin, is he? by Ilgaz · · Score: 1

      Sadly, he works for AT&T who created the ultimate scalable state of art OS (and philosophy) UNIX. That AT&T in 1970s were doing things like that and now they whine about something which even a basic home user these days have knowledge about. Even home users started to do bandwidth planning especially for contract based subscriptions. If guy only cares about Youtube, Mail, Web, he gets 1Mbit line instead of 4-8+ MBit.

    4. Re:Not a network admin, is he? by dkleinsc · · Score: 1

      It used to be that when you scrambled your way to the top, you had to keep scrambling because someone young and hungry was coming up behind you.

      It's worth noting that one of the factors in making it possible to "scramble to the top" that is no longer true is that executives were once nearly always people who had been promoted up through the ranks at the company that they worked for throughout their careers, whereas now it is quite common for people to be hired in at the VP or CxO level. This has a lot of implications, a few of the more important ones being:
        1. Executives are more likely to be identify with other company's executives than lower-ranked employees at their own firm. For instance, John Sculley owed his career to executives at Pepsi, not engineers at Apple.
        2. Executives are more able to jump ship or be pushed out and expect to land in a similar position to the one they previously held. So, say, Carly Fiorina could trash HP without worrying about her future career there, because if she got fired from HP she would have a good shot at getting a CxO-level job at another company. Without the pattern of hiring outside people in as executives, she'd be taking a much larger personal income hit at her next job.
        3. If an executive screws up big time, they're likely to be replaced not by their possibly more competent subordinate but by someone who screwed up at a similar level in another firm.

      All of these serve to insulate current executives from the consequences of their decisions while making it harder for more competent employees to move up. It also enables people with poor job skills but very good networking and interviewing skills to "fail upwards", because they could go from being an incompetent VP at company A to an incompetent CxO at company B (because company B doesn't know about the incompetence at company A).

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    5. Re:Not a network admin, is he? by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      I don't have a car analogy, but I have a stereo analogy.

      Stereo amps have two power ratings: RMS and peak. RMS is continuous power, peak is what it can hit for a short time. When you buy an amp, you don't compare peak power, you compare RMS.

      If your amp is rated at 100 watts RMS and you hook 100 watt speakers to it, you'll blow your speakers if you crank it all the way up. AT&T's top brass must go through a lot of speakers!

    6. Re:Not a network admin, is he? by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 1

      It's worth noting that one of the factors in making it possible to "scramble to the top" that is no longer true is that executives were once nearly always people who had been promoted up through the ranks at the company that they worked for throughout their careers, whereas now it is quite common for people to be hired in at the VP or CxO level.

      It does have a lot of implications. So many I feel obliged to point out another one.

      Now that large corporations no longer promote from within, they're almost guaranteed to recruit executives who know nothing about the business of the corporation. All they know are "management practices." So they set to with a will after they're hired, determined to make their mark on the company, wielding the only things they know: paper-pushing "resource" management. They know nothing about the existing corporate culture (and have been trained to despise it, because if it was working, why were they hired?), they know nothing about how the corporation made money historically, and they know nothing about how the market the corporation is servicing is likely to evolve in the future.

      The result is a VP of a telecommunications company who is astounded that the company's customers want to communicate.

    7. Re:Not a network admin, is he? by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 1

      Or even better, start a business doing something you really believe in and work 12/365 for a few years. I'm pretty sure you'll get there if you scramble :-)

      Your faith is touching, but judging by the headlines, after a few years of 12/365 grinding labor trying to bootstrap a new company, I'd end up.... bankrupt in a Texas court at the hands of a patent troll.

      As for riding the next bubble, no thanks. I didn't ride the last one, and so while I was never making 6 figures like some of my peers out of college, I never bought a 7 figure house I can't pay for now either, and I'm still employed and my house value hasn't declined at all. Chasing the next boom is a good way to go bust.

      It was here on Slashdot that someone made the observation that by the time some new tech trend is "fashionable", it has already jumped the shark. The Apple App store is a perfect example. Just this week, we saw the story of an iPhone game maker complaining that pirates were killing his revenues. It didn't take long to find out that the real reason was his game wasn't as polished as it could have been. In the parlance of his potential customers, "It sucked." Three other iPhone games were making stupid amounts of money, while experiencing the same or even higher piracy rates. They did it by being only just a little bit better than the complainer's game. So now there are 32,000+ iPhone apps, and more pouring in every hour. I'd be stupid to chase after that fashionable tech trend. It's too late.

      Chasing fashionable trends is like trying to surf by catching up to the wave in front of you. You exhaust yourself paddling (12/365 for a few years), and never do climb up to the top of that wave.

      The obvious corollary to that observation is the way to make a scramble pay off is to identify a need of a mass market that no one else has yet noticed. Predict fashion and get there first. Only then will you be at the forefront, able to ride the wave.

      I already know I'm no good at that. I don't own an iPhone, or any other kind of smartphone. I can't imagine why I would want to. They cost too much and don't do anything I need done. 10 million people feel differently. That doesn't bode well for my ability to put my finger on the pulse of the American market.

    8. Re:Not a network admin, is he? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      RMS is continuous power

      The FSF thanks you for inventing our next slogan!

    9. Re:Not a network admin, is he? by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1

      Had you excercised proper engineering methodology, you would have known to test each product/application being put on the network in test markets and used the use data to predict what the peak would be, and then only deploy it when you had a 20-50% greater capacity than what the data suggests.

      Oh yeah. Apple would have really gone for that.

      "Here's a bunch of iPhones 6 months before we release them. Send them around the country to your employees and let them try them out and make sure your network doesn't choke. But--shhhh--don't tell anybody you have them because we like doing big secret announcements."

    10. Re:Not a network admin, is he? by rastoboy29 · · Score: 1

      I know for a fact that's not true.  I work for a self made man, and he's still an under-30 punk kid.  And it's not hard to see how someone can follow his model.

      So, whatever.

  10. That's not much by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Come on, 4.932% isn't even 5%. Shame on you, AT&T!

  11. it's hard to know... by nick357 · · Score: 1

    "If a network is not fully loaded, it's hard to know exactly how much demand is out there"

    If only there was an app for that!

    1. Re:it's hard to know... by Yvan256 · · Score: 1

      There is, but he can't download it because their network is overloaded.

    2. Re:it's hard to know... by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      There's an ATT for that!

  12. Poor justifications... by SebaSOFT · · Score: 1

    As a large corporation, AT&T should have LOTS of people working on demand analysis and usage trends. If it didn't upgrade the coverage is not because it didn't see the Train Headlight on the other side of the tunnel.

  13. I look forward to the day by SuperKendall · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Still, this whole network thing has hurt their image. If and when Apple ends the exclusivity, there will be people clamoring to leave AT&T in droves.

    If and when Apple allows TMobile to also have iPhones, I will happily stay on AT&T while all the suckers go and collapse TMobile's network, while AT&T's finally has some breathing space...

    AT&T needs to get as many network upgrades in as fast as possible, especially now that they understand people are actually going to use mobile data. But I have some sympathy for them as they have seen a level of growth no-one predicted.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:I look forward to the day by TooMuchToDo · · Score: 2, Informative
      That's cool. Let's us Android users enjoy the new 7Mbps HSPA they're rolling out:

      http://www.engadget.com/2009/11/04/t-mobile-7-2mbps-hspa-rolling-out-now/

    2. Re:I look forward to the day by nsayer · · Score: 1

      I don't think TMobile will be the only choice.

      By the time iPhone exclusivity ends, it's very likely that both AT&T and Verizon will have at least started rolling out LTE, meaning that the top two carriers will have a common wireless "platform."

    3. Re:I look forward to the day by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

      From the report it seems exactly as much as the current TMobile network, since people are not seeing faster speeds...

      3G is plenty fast enough for me, if they make it more reliable and increase coverage which I would prefer over a much faster network in a handful of showcase cities. Frankly even EDGE is not too bad, it is poor for browsing but it works well enough for maps or other light data use.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    4. Re:I look forward to the day by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      But I have some sympathy for them as they have seen a level of growth no-one predicted.

      IMO that particular prediction should have been a no-brainer. I'll stick to Boost Mobile and my i776, and get an iPhone when I can use it on Boost's network. I had Cingular and was happy with them until AT&T bought them out and my monthly bill shot from about $40 per month to over $100.

      With Boost I'm paying a flat fifty bucks a month. I get unlimited voice, long distance, text, voice mail, and internet, and I'm completely anonymous; there's no contract, I bought my phone with cash and pay my bill like putting minutes on a Net10 phone.

      My only complaint with Boost is their sucky web site, but I can live with that.

    5. Re:I look forward to the day by jtownatpunk.net · · Score: 1

      As a new Verizon customer who managed to get AT&T to waive the ETF due to their increasing constipation, I pray Verizon never gets the iphone. Let it stay on GSM and not clog my tubes.

    6. Re:I look forward to the day by kimvette · · Score: 1

      But I have some sympathy for them as they have seen a level of growth no-one predicted.

      Not me, because this growth is what AT&T hoped for and is exactly why they worked hard to gain the exclusive arrangement with Apple.

      --
      The Christian Right is Neither (Christian nor right). See: Matthew 23, Matthew 25, Ezekiel 16:48-50
    7. Re:I look forward to the day by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      If I can use a Nokia N900 with Boost Mobile I am in. Now, where is my N900? :/

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    8. Re:I look forward to the day by Vegeta99 · · Score: 1

      EDGE here is faster than my apartment-provided internet connection, you insensitive clod! (and HSDPA blows it out of the water)

    9. Re:I look forward to the day by Hadlock · · Score: 1

      I'm seeing about 23 KB/s sustained when I tether my blackberry to my laptop over EDGE - what kind of shitty DSL are you using? My cable connection tops out at around 1500 KB/s

      --
      moox. for a new generation.
    10. Re:I look forward to the day by Vegeta99 · · Score: 1

      Seven bonded T1s from Level3, shared among 648 Penn State student pirates. The kicker? Cable is in my roommates name and he doesn't want to get cable access, and the company won't let you have two accounts at one address!

    11. Re:I look forward to the day by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think it's BS that nobody (especially not ATT) could have predicted 4000%+ growth, just look at Japan,Korea, and other societies with more advanced networks and consumer behavior. Oh wow, people actually want to use mobile data!! Who woulda thunk it?!!

  14. what a shock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...you offer something useful to people and they use it?

    My brother is in mngmnt with AT&T, he tells me the greatest tales of folly, and he's a just a local repair supervisor.

  15. Re:Shame on ATT for blaming anyone but themselves. by jeffstar · · Score: 1

    I wonder how verizon would fare if they were able to offer the iPhone with unlimited data as well...

  16. If you build it... by kawabago · · Score: 2, Interesting

    If you build it, they will come. In this case they're coming anyway, you better build something quick!

  17. Just another group of clueless execs by Vermyndax · · Score: 1

    Sounds like just another group of clueless executives in the communications/IT industry. All they saw was dollar signs with this agreement with Apple. They had no idea of the impact on their network.

    Just another day in the IT industry.

  18. Simple plan.... by AVryhof · · Score: 1

    Don't sell what you don't have.

    If you want to sell more, build more before selling it.

    If this were any other industry, I would bring up "if you can't, someone else will" but the market providers are so few that it's not true.

  19. Same argument used in highway construction by w3woody · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The exact same observation is made with highway construction--but it has led transportation authorities to the opposite conclusion: if the more you build, the more people use the resource--then clearly the answer is to not build any because you'll never fix the congestion, and you'll just encourage more people to use the resource.

    1. Re:Same argument used in highway construction by raddan · · Score: 1

      The highway model is a limited analogy because highway bandwidth is finite. There are all kinds of practical impediments to building more capacity, not to mention side-effects of more traffic: increased air pollution, increased risk of accidents, increased road maintenance costs, increased need for parking, etc. The same problems don't apply to fibre. It is exceedingly cheap, reliable, and requires very little effort to install, especially if you already have a right-of-way. In fact, take down the copper network as you put up fibre, and you can bankroll the entire replacement without dipping into your revenues. We can't even utilize all the bandwidth in the fibre we already have! You can upgrade the fibre cable you already laid just by periodically upgrading the endpoints.

  20. What is peak of 4600% average increase? by SuperKendall · · Score: 2, Insightful

    You've never done any kind of network administration, have you Mr. Donovan? You designed your network for average use, not peak use.

    I think what he is saying (badly) is that you can't find the peak if your network is constantly at peak.

    Not to mention it's hard to figure out what the real peak will be in a few years with 4600% growth in average use.

    To put it simply, that level of growth caught everyone flat footed because people just did not use data plans that heavily before. AT&T is still trying to figure out how to adjust. I know they are building out because service in my town (Denver) has improved, but obviously they are struggling to have improvements match growth rates. And they probably will for some time... hopefully they are starting to realize they need to lay down new network capacity at a far greater rate, whatever that takes.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:What is peak of 4600% average increase? by girlintraining · · Score: 1

      I think what he is saying (badly) is that you can't find the peak if your network is constantly at peak.

      If he'd been doing case studies from the start and deploying products in test markets on a schedule -- this wouldn't have become a problem because there would have been leading indicators of a sudden upward rise in demand. But they disregarded that in order to release the iPhone nationwide all at once as part of a huge marketing campaign, rather than in select markets in a phased deployment. They made a grave miscalculation in doing so and now have no idea where they sit. In this situation, the solution is to find parts of the network that aren't saturated and make an educated guess from that data about what the rest of the network "should" look like. Then do a pilot upgrade in, say, twenty locations where the network traffic is at its most dense and see if the those projections hold. Rinse, wash, repeat.

      The problem is, it costs more to rush a deployment after a problem like this presents than to do a phased upgrade, when there's opportunities to cut costs by careful selection of distribution channels, contracting during periods of reduced production, etc. This executive, by procrastinating and delaying these upgrades, will now wind up costing the company more (possibly considerably more) because they're behind the curve than would have been necessary had proper engineering practice been followed from the start.

      The bottom line here is that sooner or later, you have to pay the piper.

      --
      #fuckbeta #iamslashdot #dicemustdie
    2. Re:What is peak of 4600% average increase? by Duhavid · · Score: 1

      And I think what they other guy is saying is that the system was not always at peak load, and this *should not* be a surprise to them, they should have seen it coming, and reacted better and sooner.

      --
      emt 377 emt 4
  21. There Will Be Bandwidth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Does this:

    "You put all you can in the ground, and they eat it all up, and then you put more in there, and they eat it all up."

    Remind anyone else of this:

    "Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And my straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink your milkshake... I... drink... your... milkshake! I drink it up."

  22. Even more shocking... by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ...offer something that is your core competency and people want to use it. This is what AT&T DOES. They sell data transit. Move the bits from here to there. That's their job. Their ONLY job. And they suck at it. If that's not a damning indictment against monopoly/duopoly, I don't know what is.

    If only my employer had this problem. People beating down their door to obtain the service they most like to offer. Oh what a terrible fate. And they fumble it and practically fail at it. It would be unbelievable if I didn't already know they're more than half of a duopoly.

    Worse, they got a giant government handout a decade ago, before giant handouts were quite so common, and they STILL fail. How much of the free broadband money (tax credits) did AT&T née SBC née Bell South née AT&T get from the gub'ment? Billions. And here it is 2009 and they're having trouble moving data from a few million phones. It's crap like this that is the reason why Third World countries tend to stay Third World. We truly have become a banana republic, and we're going to destroy ourselves if we keep up that habit. It does not work.

    1. Re:Even more shocking... by moosesocks · · Score: 1

      Contrast to Verizon, who are generally rather good at moving bits around, but have absolutely no idea about how to interact with their customers. I'm pretty sure Douglas Adams' description of the vogons is a good match for how customer service at Verizon works. It's simply horrendous.

      Back when I used AT&T, their network was awful, but they were always absolute pros to deal with in person. In fact, I had an easier time cancelling my AT&T account than I did activating my Verizon account.

      Since switching to Verizon 4 years ago, I've been overbilled about every 1 out of 4 months, have waited on hold for countless hours in an attempt to have this rectified, and have found their in-store support to be even more terrible.

      Yesterday, I went into one of their stores to have my phone's firmware flashed updated, and to take a peek at their new Android phones. The firmware that my phone shipped with is notoriously buggy, and Verizon/LG finally owned up, and shipped a new version of the firmware, but only allowed upgrades to be done in-store. The tech in the store confirmed that there were numerous problems with my version of the firmware, but that they also end up bricking most of the phones that they upgrade, and that I'd be charged $100 and lose my contacts if they broke my phone.

      Frustrated and angry, I took my phone back, shared a few expletives with the manager, and went to the sales portion of the store, cash in hand, ready to buy one of the Android phones they had on display. When I got there, I found that (despite extensive advertising all around the store), none of the sales reps knew anything about the phone, and that the only unit they were permitted to unbox as a display unit was already broken.

      All of the sudden, AT&T's shitty network, and Apple's app screening policies don't seem all that bad.

      --
      -- If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done? - Uli's moose
  23. Ahh the good old days ... by BitZtream · · Score: 1

    What I wouldn't give to go back to when 'Its hard!' was not a valid excuse for not doing your job.

    Its our own fault for not demanding better service. 2 year contracts let them get by with murder since you can't just jump ship and go to the better provider. While its not enforcing a monopoly, its certain promoting bad service and limiting consumer choice.

    --
    Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
  24. Re:Shame on ATT for blaming anyone but themselves. by Blakey+Rat · · Score: 1

    This guy's quote is BS, if you as the owner of your traffic don't know how much demand there is either by system monitoring and/or usage patterns for specific type clients (with demograhaphics tagged along with it, because ATT sure as hell knows its clients profiles and/or can buy such data from 3rd parties) then they need to get out of the business.

    No, what's he's saying is that since the network is already full to 100% of capacity, it's impossible to tell how much more capacity they need in specific areas. Which is true; since every tower is 100%, there's no place that's obviously worse than any other place. They have "capacity clipping", to coin a term.

  25. People: stop linking to "print this page" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I realize people are pretty much free to do what they want... But it's really rude to link to a "print this page" article instead of the actual page, as this summary does. What this does here is tells the target website, you're going to absorb the bandwidth cost of having Slashdot readers view an article, but you're not going to able to show them ads. On a small scale it probably doesn't mean much (just as it probably doesn't mean much if a small percentage uses ad-blocking software), but I still feel this is disrespectful, especially on something that is going to receive high volume.

  26. Up Yours, AT&T by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

    I got an iPhone to up my wireless coverage, AT&T. Now up yours.

    --

    --
    make install -not war

  27. screw at&t by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They're a bloated company that needs to be split again. I hate saying something like that, but my recent experiences at two different locations with their phone/internet service leads me to believe theyre bumbling idiots that cant get the different depts of their company to work together.

    When you pay for a phone line to be reactivated, it needs to be reactivated, not sit idle for a week. The line is_only_ used for DSL purposes. I waited a week for my DSL provider to reactivate the line, cause they say it takes that long to send the disconnect / reconnect orders to AT&T. I waited. And found out the line wasnt going back up, because AT&T screwed up. Got it taken care of, but thats just annoying..

    At another location, a sales rep called and said the "contract" needed to be re-negotiated. It was learned a week and a half later, after internet services on that line -- which have two active voice lines, its a BUSINESS -- slowly degraded, and they tried running the poor woman through some lame steps, I got there and talked to a rep myself and they said "Oh, you've got some sync issues, we'll send a tech out" and then promptly gave me the "If its external, its free of charge, if its internal, you pay" b.s. line... Turns out the idiot AT&T sales rep sold a speed upgrade that ISNT AVAILABLE in the area this client does business...

  28. San Francisco... by alexfeig · · Score: 1

    Wow, if this is true "AT&T is in the midst of leveraging its prime 850MHz radio spectrum for 3G in San Francisco, a step that is 90 percent complete, Donovan said." then they have a long way to go.

    I just actually canceled my AT&T service after a few years of having absolutely godawful service in downtown SF, and I can tell you that from my perspective NO improvement has been made PERIOD.

    This is the biggest load of BS I've read in a long time. They have no clue on how to fix this, and people in my office (including myself) have been able to cancel contracts without an early termination fee because they KNOW their service sucks.

    1. Re:San Francisco... by Vegeta99 · · Score: 1

      Perhaps they were saying that the 850MHz network is 90% built out, but not necessarily on yet?

      Where I'm currently living (small city), when we got 3G service, it went from none at all to holy-shit-5-bars-everywhere-in-the-county HSPA service. One morning, I woke up, and the phone rang without the usual barrage of speaker interference, and the service is amazing. Not only that, but on the exact day that AT&T Engineering said they would turn it on.

      Yeah, I'm a happy AT&T customer, but I know for sure that it's not like this everywhere. In my hometown, they have a few towers, but all EDGE-only. Most of the time I'm roaming on a local provider (Immix) that's not too reliable, and data speeds suck so bad I can't even stream Pandora on low-quality. I'm just sayin' their comment may not be complete bullshit.

    2. Re:San Francisco... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm happy for you and I'm somewhat sympathetic to ATT's challenges. But I'm curious what this city-by-city call model is. Right now it seems like the model in SF is, kill a session after about 6 minutes, so that somebody else can make a call.

  29. Pathetic by the+eric+conspiracy · · Score: 1

    What is truly pathetic is that the old AT&T would have handled this without problem. The company the built the first non-blocking electronic switch (the 1ESS) in 1965 and invented Shannon's law is now sadly but a faint memory.

    The only things left are a legacy of Nobel Prizes (still growing) and water towers shaped like transistors.

  30. Their rival not acting sane too by Ilgaz · · Score: 1

    By targeting Apple iPhone and AT&T together, Verizon lost way too many potential customers. Industry rule is, never ever specifically target Apple since it is something like a cult. I know lots of people around me asking "So what the hell is Verizon and why they hate Apple?". I am thousands of kilometers away from USA, now that should be some real alerting thing.

    AT&T could advertise involvement with UNIX (which many don't know), Verizon could inform people about why they have the largest coverage, why their speeds are so higher than the competition. All they do is childish "I do that, I do this" competition with lots of drama. iPhone is a damn UNIX device which is a fairly advanced smart phone in its own right, they should stop treating iPhone users or other smart phone/device users like bunch of rich morons.

  31. lol by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Or you could just purchase the iphone outright with no plan and jailbreak it, put it on your verizon plan and have 3G coverage all over the country and laugh as you do things twice as fast as the phone next to you for less a month.

    1. Re:lol by adamstew · · Score: 1

      iPhone uses GSM technology to speak to the networks. AT&T is a GSM carrier

      Verizon is a CDMA Carrier.

      Putting the AT&T iPhone on Verizon would be like trying to plug a USB Hard Drive in to a Firewire port. It just won't work.

  32. For example, Akamai cancelled Al Jazeera contract by Ilgaz · · Score: 1

    Speaking of Arab TVs, the king of content delivery Akamai has took off Al Jazeera "from the air" (web) because of Sep. 11. That website of TV paid for the contract and they ended up without having a hosting provider. The TV, no matter what you hear about it is extremely mild, run by TV professionals, especially British (Ex BBC) and it is off the web just because it is "Arabic Owned" (UAE BTW) and they possibly had some mails from some idiots connecting that TV Network to Al Queda. (hopefully not @whitehouse.gov) It can't be financially motivated since Al Jazeera is considered as a very rich media company, run by some Arab Prince. These guys use Ikegami HD Cams as ordinary things while other TV stations (including CNN etc) struggle with Betacam SD in some cases.

    http://news.cnet.com/1200-1035-995546.html

    If I was an American, I would be extremely alerted about the "net neutrality" discussions. That is Akamai doing it, imagine the rest... Like Murdoch buying some financially unstable Tier 0 network. Check the Tier 0 network owners, they are still recovering from dotcom crash...

  33. The Deal With Apple *Can't* Be The Issue by weston · · Score: 1

    And if they didnt sign the exclusive deal with Apple, what do you think that growth would have been?

    Given the common wisdom that the iPhone isn't actually useful -- it's basically a shiny fashion accessory, right? -- one ought to be skeptical that the deal with Apple has anything to do with increased data usage.

  34. Be realistic by SuperKendall · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If he'd been doing case studies from the start and deploying products in test markets on a schedule

    Come on, how are you going to "test market" something like the iPhone? It releases everywhere, all at once - and it's been a rollercoaster for them since.

    I have seen so many test market plans from large companies go up in smoke. Invariably there is something large no-one accounted for in the testing. You can test and test to some degree, but there are always at least a few huge surprises when you deploy - and the growth of actual data use on hand-held devices is simply something that could not be "tested" for as it also goes hand it hand with application growth, which would not occur at the same rate in test markets.

    But they disregarded that in order to release the iPhone nationwide all at once as part of a huge marketing campaign,

    But if you want to blame someone for that, it's all on Apple - not AT&T. Honestly though, I don't see that plan really working for them well even if they had been able to do it - as I said before part of the rise in bandwidth is the rise in the number of applications that make use of that bandwidth.

    And honestly, who even does small market test releases anymore? Did Verizon do that with Droid? No, because you simply cannot take that kind of time in todays mobile market.

    The problem is, it costs more to rush a deployment after a problem like this presents than to do a phased upgrade, when there's opportunities to cut costs by careful selection of distribution channels, contracting during periods of reduced production, etc.

    Ah, but this careful approach also would lose a lot of customers, and the iPhone would not have been a success had it been tried as it would have given everyone else way too much time to catch up.

    Personally as a customer I'd rather have a network with a few issues and an iPhone than be wondering when it would come to my town... that goes for any device, people always bitch when you release it into a limited market first. Phones are not a thing you can do that with, although it works for other tech sectors.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Be realistic by girlintraining · · Score: 1

      Come on, how are you going to "test market" something like the iPhone? It releases everywhere, all at once - and it's been a rollercoaster for them since.

      They could have released the iPhone in only a few places, at a few stores, just like they have done with many other phones. They didn't, because Apple didn't want to "spoil the big surprise". All AT&T saw was dollar signs.

      Invariably there is something large no-one accounted for in the testing.

      So I suppose now we should just build a million cars without testing them on the track, because assuredly, something "large" will go unnoticed: Like forgetting to install brakes.

      as I said before part of the rise in bandwidth is the rise in the number of applications that make use of that bandwidth.

      You've said many things before. Like how you invented the internet, know everything there is about computers, and would certainly do better as CEO of Microsoft than the current joker. Opinions are like assh*les, everybody has one. If you're going to assert that the number of applications is related to an increase in bandwidth, you need to provide a citation. And even here, the same methodology would still work: Which is making it available to beta testers, estimating the amount of bandwidth used, just like every other network application out there. But, alas, the iPhone is special! It's immune to standard networking practice.

      And honestly, who even does small market test releases anymore?

      People who listen to their engineers.

      No, because you simply cannot take that kind of time in todays mobile market.

      A few months of R&D, or a few years of unexpected hardware upgrades. Yeah, definately can't take that kind of time.

      Ah, but this careful approach also would lose a lot of customers, and the iPhone would not have been a success had it been tried as it would have given everyone else way too much time to catch up.

      Lay off the koolaid. More people bought motorola Razrs when they came out than the iPhone.

      Personally as a customer I'd rather have a network with a few issues and an iPhone than be wondering when it would come to my town...

      Did the koolaid taste good?

      people always bitch when you release it into a limited market first.

      People bitch when bad products come on the market, or it fails often, or its slow, or hell... it doesn't come in the right shade of purple. Your point?

      Phones are not a thing you can do that with, although it works for other tech sectors.

      Because phones are super special awesome and defy the laws of physics, or so says Steve Jobs, right?

      --
      #fuckbeta #iamslashdot #dicemustdie
  35. That's an interesting proposition by earnest+murderer · · Score: 1

    But it's also easy to know...

    What is the difference in price in your area for a 1.5mb DSL line (20-30 here) versus a T-1 to your home?

    I'll stick with my 7mb DSL service for now, thanks.

    --
    Platform advocacy is like choosing a favorite severely developmentally disabled child.
    1. Re:That's an interesting proposition by TemporalBeing · · Score: 1
      Whether you are using DSL, Cable, etc. for the most part the ground lines are already there. But the sub-stations/central-offices that service them don't necessarily have the backbones to the main facilities to support all the bandwidth that the customers being services by that sub-station/central office have purchased - that is what I mean by "last mile" issues.

      Even Verizon with their FIOS lines are susceptible to this since while the fiber line will give you plenty of bandwidth back to the sub-station/central office, they still have to have enough bandwidth in their back-end to support it, which they don't.

      Also, what's the difference between a T-1 and your DSL?
      • T-1 is typically same speed upload & download.
      • T-1 is slower (max 1.5Mbps)
      • DSL rides over normal phone wires. T-1 is fiber optic and they have to run a line to your house (like Verizon FIOS).
      • T-1 has an SLA with it. DSL does not.
      • T-1 you can run your own server; you even get static IPs. DSL you typically can't (though some ISPs, e.g. SpeakEasy, will let you.
      • The ISP provisions you a full connection (upload AND download) 100% of the time with a T-1; they don't with DSL.

      Really, with a T-1 you're really paying for the SLA, not the bandwidth. Customer grade Internet can be just as cheap as it is now and provide the same bandwidth as the T-1 - just remove the SLA; most users will be just as happy.

      --
      Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away. - Elvis Presley (source: imdb.com)
  36. Ryan by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Forget about 3g, I'd be happy to just be able to make a phone call when 'off the beaten path'. I've been less than a mile away from the interstate where there is 3g coverage and had zero bars and any attempt at making a call resulted in 'call failed'. Although the Verizon 'map for that' commercials are a bit harsh, they are unfortunately fairly accurate. 3g is nice when it is there, but sacrificing the primary function of a phone (making calls) for faster web browsing is simply not acceptable. Hopefully they put dollars towards increasing basic cellular coverage or I'll be switching networks once the contract is up (and Apple sells phones on other networks).

  37. Have they got a map for that? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That's what I'd like to know.

  38. Re:Shame on ATT for blaming anyone but themselves. by captaindomon · · Score: 1

    I agree with the parent. I mean, come on. AT&T has one of the largest data backbones in the WORLD. Their command & control center is cooler than Nasa's. They have three hundred thousand employees and do 120 BILLION in revenue yearly. This is BS stuff for a purely PR standpoint. They know exactly what data people want and exactly what their capacity is, trust me. They probably have a couple hundred employees whose full-time job is to manage bandwidth across their worldwide network. They also have very good PR people that know how to spin a story to appease the masses, and this guy is paid very well and does a very good job convincing 98% of subscribers that AT&T is doing their best, when their goal is not to do their best- it is to do the job good enough to maximize profits, which is a very different goal, but one they do very well.

    --
    Just because I can hook a shark from a boat, I do no offer to wrestle it in the water.
  39. AT&T is too blame by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The iPhone could probably be attributed to a big percentage of the problem with the amount apps that access the 3G network but AT&T in general is highly to blame for the massive increase. They are requiring ALL new smartphone user to get a data plan at $30 minimum (not including text messaging). Since this new requirement in September 2009 if people are paying for data they plan to get their money worth. Personally I am one to use what I am paying for. If they want to fix the problem they can remove the need to purchase the data plan, offer it at a lower rate for a limited about per month, or increase their network bandwidth to account for the influx they created.

  40. Re:Shame on ATT for blaming anyone but themselves. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    That's really not true though, because you can still count devices attempting to connect but being rebuffed. So actually, it's trivial to figure out where capacity is most needed, but not necessarily how much. If they can't make a very good guess, though, then they are even more hard up for talent than I thought.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  41. Re:Shame on ATT for blaming anyone but themselves. by Blakey+Rat · · Score: 1

    Well, it's still an excuse. It's just not as lame an excuse as it appears at first glance.

    Anyway, I don't fault them. Data in Seattle is a bit slow, but it's pretty reliable, and from my experience, their coverage (in general) is better than Verizon's-- or at least I know plenty of locations where my friend's Verizon phone won't work but my phone works fine.

  42. Re:Shame on ATT for blaming anyone but themselves. by roc97007 · · Score: 1

    > I wonder how verizon would fare if they were able to offer the iPhone with unlimited data as well...

    I'd like to see that. I switched recently from at&t to verizon as a Blackberry user, and have seen no discernible difference in web response. Comparing my daughter's Blackberry (still on ATT) to mine, the response is pretty much the same -- crappy, dial-up-era throughput. Page rendering sometimes measured in minutes. I don't think iphone customers would see any better results on Verizon. I don't pretend to know the solution, but something is wrong with the whole cell phone data plan thing.

    Since I got my first web-enabled phone (a Treo) in 2004, I've been using this test for wireless throughput: Sitting in some random restaurant, you look up the movie times in this area while I go outside and buy a newspaper. In 2004, I could stop for coffee and a chonga bagel. I have to move more quickly now, but I can still get to the movie section before you can. This is "broadband" only because the vendors say it is.

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
  43. signed up and canceled within 30 days by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I signed up for one of the USB mercury datacards so I could have Internet access from anywhere ATT's network was.
    This is in Los Angeles. The 3 places I tried to use it, either the signal was soo poor, or I kept getting disconnected.
    The sales rep assured me this wouldn't happen since I get to use all "10" data channels versus those iPhone users who only get 5.

    Didn't work for me, so I returned it. Now I need to find another usb card for my wireless access.
    Verizon? Sprint? Tmobile?