Let's imagine for a minute that MS invented a totally unbreakable "Magic Activation Scheme" (MAS) and incorporated it into the next version of Windows - WindowsXXP(tm). No way to get around it, either buy XXP, or don't use it. What would happen?
1. Short term sales would rise.
A larger number of users would buy XXP with MAS than without it. Some small businesses and home users would pay up instead of lending from a friend or buying one copy and installing it on all computers. The sales would be higher, but not a lot higher.
2. XXP installed base would increase slower with MAS than without it. In the US and EU a number of small businesses and home users would stay with legacy Windows, or would seek alternatives. In emerging economies XXP installed base would never go above 5%.
3. Long term consequesnces would be disastrous.
China, Eastern Europe, Russia & the rest of the x-USSR, Latin America, parts of the Middle East, India in 3-5 years would be predominantly Windows-free. When an average monthly salary is in the range $100-300, it's very hard to justify paying $200 for a copy of XXP. The majority of the population would either stay with legacy Windows, or find alternatives. Once an entire nation learns how to use a certain OS, it would take extreme measures to make it switch.
In the US, Canada, and EU the XXP installed base would be smaller. A sizable chunk of home users and small businesses would learn how to live without Windows. A new market niche would be created for alternative OSes. That niche is currencly occupied by illegaly copied Windows. Great opportunity for Linux & FreeBSD.
--
Now, does anyone really expect MS to be THAT stupid?
Take a look at the market (ticker MVIS). When the news was announced the stock gained about $1. Then in the next day it lost it all. The market thinks it's all BS.
Here is the page where they describe the would be product http://www.mvis.com/prod_microdisplay.htm
It has nothing but marketing talk and a dated "Concept" document.
The page for investors has some info on future products. The microdisplay is not listed there. Obviously, it's not going to be released in foreseable future.
> friends and relatives in Russia still tell me
> that when they go to flea markets, people still
> sell pirated software at a ridiculously low
> price... this goes for audio CDs as well and
> even hardware...
It's not about selling, but about manufacturing. For examples, the CD factory in Aprelevka near Moscow actually stopped open manufacturing of pirated music CD. All the pirated stuff in the streets is primarily either Bulgarian, Asian, or Ukranian. If you try to buy domestic software, like various Russian acconting packages, you will discover it very hard to find.
This is RIAA doing. It is not about software, it's clearly about enforcing IP on music CDs.
I think Microsoft is PURPOSEFULLY not enforcing their IP rights in the third world. If MS were vigorously enforcing it, they would just drive everybody away from MS platform. An office license is $300. That's about equal to the average monthly salary in Moscow. I think the average monthly salary in Russia is around $150. MS is not THAT stupid. It's in MS's interests to better keep everybody using pirated MS software than to force an entire nation to free software alternatives.
First, legislation is a good step, but it will not stop spam. Because the net is really world-wide. No US law is going to stop spam from Korea or Moldova.
Second, about 25% of spam I get is from first-time spamers. Every day some idiot salesman invents this new cool way of advertising. He might quite sincerely not understand the difference between direct mail and spam. He will learn eventually, but we would get spam anyways.
The real solution is to charge sender for sending mail. E-money won't work in the near future - there is no infrastructure for it. Instead, the mail recepient should bill his own ISP for every piece of mail. The per piece price cannot exceed a certain amount (let's say $1 or $5 or even $0.15). The ISP charges the sender's ISP for the cost and processing fee. The sender ISP passes the cost to the sender.
The infrastructure could be built the same way as HTTPS. If an ISP wants to participate, it gets a certificate from a root authority, sets a server for "SMTPS" and for billing. The SMTPS session is signed. There could be some price negotiation between SMTPS servers too. SMTPS would have to be properly amended.
This would be very similar to peering agreements between ISPs. The system could get started if 3-4 large digital carriers agreed on the standard. Others could join later.
IMNSHO the best current Russian fantasy writer is Nik Perumov. His books are not an average fantasy of Good vs Evil. But rather Dark Side vs Light Forces, with author siding with the Dark. It's either an exiled mage rising a rebellion against good benevolent Gods to save his imprisoned friend. Or a necromancer on a quest against the rest of the world. Noone is always good and noone is pure evil. Very good solid high paced reading. Very enjoyable. I don't know if he is translated to English though. He had one book in English with Alan Cole. Unfortunately that sorry piece of a crap is not worth the paper it's published on.
Another decent Russian writer is Sviatoslav Loginov - http://rusf.ru/english/loginov/ (in English). _Multiarm God of Dalayn_ is VERY original. I have not read anything like that either in English or Russian. It might be too original though. _Black Blood_ with Nik Perumov is very good. He also writes "village fantasy" which might be too thick with Russian culture and closer to common fiction than to fantasy.
One of the older writers is Kir Bulychev. Some of his writing is space sci fi, some is social sci fi set in a fictional Russian town "Veliky Gusliar". Mostly targeted to younger readers.
Brothers Strugatski are classics of Russian sci fi. Their earlier books are mostly space sci fi. Like _It's Hard to Be a God_ is about human outpost on a medieval planet. _Beetle in an Anthill_ is very original alien planet fiction. _Stalker_ is good reading. The _Monday Starts on Saturday_ is about government research facility studying magic (fun reading - government bureaucracy + magic). The later books tend to be more philosophical and are thick with Russian historical and cultural references.
A lot of people like Sergey Lukyanenko. He is probably the best selling contemporary Russian sci fi writer. Another popular writer is Vladimir Vasil'ev - sci fi, fantasy, cyber, alternative history. I did not read a lot of them, so I won't comment.
_Master and Margarita_ was written in the first half on 20th century. Classic translated to many languages including English. Satan come to Moscow. Very philosophical - love, responsibility, genius. Very very philosophical, but fun to read. Particularly if you took a course in Russian history.
> you know, this guy has a real class act
> employer.
This "class act employer" is responsible for a good chunk of Internet spam. Elcomsoft makes Advanced Direct Remailer, Advanced Email Extractor and a whole bunch of spam tools. Elcomsoft's web site had been in the MAPS RBL. They still keep selling their spam tools. These guys are crooks and should be put out of business. It just a coincidence that they are appearing in a freedom of speech litigation.
> Hands down, Mr. Katalov is the coolest employer
> I've ever seen.
Elcomsoft is responsible for about 5% of Internet spam. These people profit every time you get another turdlet advertizing "Hot teen sluts". Elcomsoft makes Advanced Direct Remailer, Advanced Email Extractor and a whole bunch of spam tools. These guys are crooks and should be put out of business.
> I'm surprised to see that these guys are still
> around, I was sure at the time after that
> mistake, and giving away 1000's of these things
> that surely they would be just
> another.com/tech company down the tubes.
It still might happen. We hired quite a few of former Cybiko developers and designers over the last few months. Looks like they are having a massive layoff.
With proper planning the duration of a software project can be estimated with very high defree of accuracy. The problem is that proper planning itself may take as long as 50% of total project time.
In case of manufacturing, the process is known. Proper planning was done in advance, when the manufacturing process was developed.
In case of physics one has to solve the problem before he would know how complex it is. Proper planning is the process.
Basically, stick to projects you understand and planning should be a piece of cake.
> You: Hasn't it occured to you that a single
> drop of benzene is enough to kill a room full
> of people? All Benzene is, is just a ring of 8
> carbon atoms.
Benzene is C6H6. It's no more toxic than aceton or asbestos. One drop of benzene cannot kill a roomful of people. You can wash your hands in benzene, swallow a small amount of it (certainly a few drops) and suffer no immediate health problems. Benzene MAY cause cancer in some people. Just like asbestos.
Every technology advance is seen as dangerous. When the machine gun was invented around WWI, it was seen as a horrible weapon of mass destruction which would make future wars impossible. What was next? Chemical warfare, nuclear weapons, biological weapons, genetically modified organisms, W2K bug, AIDS, Microsoft dominance.
Humanity has a consistent track record of successfully dealing with dangers. Journalists have a consistent track record of looking for the next big scare.
Yes, nanotech will cause some deaths. At the same time nanotech will serve humanity. Or the humanity will become indistinguishable, become one with nanotech.
in a science show called _Ochevidnoe-Neveroyatnoe_ (Obvious-Unbelivable). I remember watching it when I was a kid. I distinctly remember that the guy used a bag with black gun powder moving on a string above the field of matches. Then I read a dozen papers clearly proving it to be a low density snow ball.
Do your research before posting yet another piece of 20 year old news.
I am writing this from Moscow. Here in Russia national picture ID had been in use for at least 70 years.
The REAL issue is where you have to present said ID card.
This is absolutely correct. During the Soviet rule national ID had to be carried all the time and presented virtually everywhere. Airline? Show your ID. Check into a hotel? Show your ID. No, you can't check in with that lady because the ID does not identify her as your wife (I am serious, that's how it worked). Want to apply for a job? Show ID. No, you can't have the job because your address of residence is listed in another town. The ID had to be updated if you changed apartments.
Are you guys ready to give up that much of your freedom?
In the present day Russia the ID turned into a useless Soviet relic which solves no problems. It just keeps a few beaurocrats from looking for a new job. It's just funny to see how much things have changed in the last 10 years.
Slashdot Mirror
Let's imagine for a minute that MS invented a totally unbreakable "Magic Activation Scheme" (MAS) and incorporated it into the next version of Windows - WindowsXXP(tm). No way to get around it, either buy XXP, or don't use it. What would happen?
1. Short term sales would rise.
A larger number of users would buy XXP with MAS than without it. Some small businesses and home users would pay up instead of lending from a friend or buying one copy and installing it on all computers. The sales would be higher, but not a lot higher.
2. XXP installed base would increase slower with MAS than without it. In the US and EU a number of small businesses and home users would stay with legacy Windows, or would seek alternatives. In emerging economies XXP installed base would never go above 5%.
3. Long term consequesnces would be disastrous.
China, Eastern Europe, Russia & the rest of the x-USSR, Latin America, parts of the Middle East, India in 3-5 years would be predominantly Windows-free. When an average monthly salary is in the range $100-300, it's very hard to justify paying $200 for a copy of XXP. The majority of the population would either stay with legacy Windows, or find alternatives. Once an entire nation learns how to use a certain OS, it would take extreme measures to make it switch.
In the US, Canada, and EU the XXP installed base would be smaller. A sizable chunk of home users and small businesses would learn how to live without Windows. A new market niche would be created for alternative OSes. That niche is currencly occupied by illegaly copied Windows. Great opportunity for Linux & FreeBSD.
--
Now, does anyone really expect MS to be THAT stupid?
Take a look at the market (ticker MVIS). When the news was announced the stock gained about $1. Then in the next day it lost it all. The market thinks it's all BS.
Here is the page where they describe the would be product http://www.mvis.com/prod_microdisplay.htm
It has nothing but marketing talk and a dated "Concept" document.
The page for investors has some info on future products. The microdisplay is not listed there. Obviously, it's not going to be released in foreseable future.
> friends and relatives in Russia still tell me
> that when they go to flea markets, people still
> sell pirated software at a ridiculously low
> price... this goes for audio CDs as well and
> even hardware...
It's not about selling, but about manufacturing. For examples, the CD factory in Aprelevka near Moscow actually stopped open manufacturing of pirated music CD. All the pirated stuff in the streets is primarily either Bulgarian, Asian, or Ukranian. If you try to buy domestic software, like various Russian acconting packages, you will discover it very hard to find.
This is RIAA doing. It is not about software, it's clearly about enforcing IP on music CDs.
I think Microsoft is PURPOSEFULLY not enforcing their IP rights in the third world. If MS were vigorously enforcing it, they would just drive everybody away from MS platform. An office license is $300. That's about equal to the average monthly salary in Moscow. I think the average monthly salary in Russia is around $150. MS is not THAT stupid. It's in MS's interests to better keep everybody using pirated MS software than to force an entire nation to free software alternatives.
First, legislation is a good step, but it will not stop spam. Because the net is really world-wide. No US law is going to stop spam from Korea or Moldova.
Second, about 25% of spam I get is from first-time spamers. Every day some idiot salesman invents this new cool way of advertising. He might quite sincerely not understand the difference between direct mail and spam. He will learn eventually, but we would get spam anyways.
The real solution is to charge sender for sending mail. E-money won't work in the near future - there is no infrastructure for it. Instead, the mail recepient should bill his own ISP for every piece of mail. The per piece price cannot exceed a certain amount (let's say $1 or $5 or even $0.15). The ISP charges the sender's ISP for the cost and processing fee. The sender ISP passes the cost to the sender.
The infrastructure could be built the same way as HTTPS. If an ISP wants to participate, it gets a certificate from a root authority, sets a server for "SMTPS" and for billing. The SMTPS session is signed. There could be some price negotiation between SMTPS servers too. SMTPS would have to be properly amended.
This would be very similar to peering agreements between ISPs. The system could get started if 3-4 large digital carriers agreed on the standard. Others could join later.
IMNSHO the best current Russian fantasy writer is Nik Perumov. His books are not an average fantasy of Good vs Evil. But rather Dark Side vs Light Forces, with author siding with the Dark. It's either an exiled mage rising a rebellion against good benevolent Gods to save his imprisoned friend. Or a necromancer on a quest against the rest of the world. Noone is always good and noone is pure evil. Very good solid high paced reading. Very enjoyable. I don't know if he is translated to English though. He had one book in English with Alan Cole. Unfortunately that sorry piece of a crap is not worth the paper it's published on.
Another decent Russian writer is Sviatoslav Loginov - http://rusf.ru/english/loginov/ (in English). _Multiarm God of Dalayn_ is VERY original. I have not read anything like that either in English or Russian. It might be too original though. _Black Blood_ with Nik Perumov is very good. He also writes "village fantasy" which might be too thick with Russian culture and closer to common fiction than to fantasy.
One of the older writers is Kir Bulychev. Some of his writing is space sci fi, some is social sci fi set in a fictional Russian town "Veliky Gusliar". Mostly targeted to younger readers.
Brothers Strugatski are classics of Russian sci fi. Their earlier books are mostly space sci fi. Like _It's Hard to Be a God_ is about human outpost on a medieval planet. _Beetle in an Anthill_ is very original alien planet fiction. _Stalker_ is good reading. The _Monday Starts on Saturday_ is about government research facility studying magic (fun reading - government bureaucracy + magic). The later books tend to be more philosophical and are thick with Russian historical and cultural references.
A lot of people like Sergey Lukyanenko. He is probably the best selling contemporary Russian sci fi writer. Another popular writer is Vladimir Vasil'ev - sci fi, fantasy, cyber, alternative history. I did not read a lot of them, so I won't comment.
_Master and Margarita_ was written in the first half on 20th century. Classic translated to many languages including English. Satan come to Moscow. Very philosophical - love, responsibility, genius. Very very philosophical, but fun to read. Particularly if you took a course in Russian history.
This news was released back in March 2001 in Russian:
. ht ml
http://www.mfit.ru/defensive/obzor/ob04-04-01-1
http://www.infoport.ru/main_popup.php?ID=312893
About mid March 2001 the project was presented at arms expo in Abu Dhabi.
News is not like brandy. It does not get better when aged for 9 months.
> you know, this guy has a real class act
> employer.
This "class act employer" is responsible for a good chunk of Internet spam. Elcomsoft makes Advanced Direct Remailer, Advanced Email Extractor and a whole bunch of spam tools. Elcomsoft's web site had been in the MAPS RBL. They still keep selling their spam tools. These guys are crooks and should be put out of business. It just a coincidence that they are appearing in a freedom of speech litigation.
> Hands down, Mr. Katalov is the coolest employer
> I've ever seen.
Elcomsoft is responsible for about 5% of Internet spam. These people profit every time you get another turdlet advertizing "Hot teen sluts". Elcomsoft makes Advanced Direct Remailer, Advanced Email Extractor and a whole bunch of spam tools. These guys are crooks and should be put out of business.
> I'm surprised to see that these guys are still .com/tech company down the tubes.
> around, I was sure at the time after that
> mistake, and giving away 1000's of these things
> that surely they would be just
> another
It still might happen. We hired quite a few of former Cybiko developers and designers over the last few months. Looks like they are having a massive layoff.
With proper planning the duration of a software project can be estimated with very high defree of accuracy. The problem is that proper planning itself may take as long as 50% of total project time.
In case of manufacturing, the process is known. Proper planning was done in advance, when the manufacturing process was developed.
In case of physics one has to solve the problem before he would know how complex it is. Proper planning is the process.
Basically, stick to projects you understand and planning should be a piece of cake.
> You: Hasn't it occured to you that a single
> drop of benzene is enough to kill a room full
> of people? All Benzene is, is just a ring of 8
> carbon atoms.
Benzene is C6H6. It's no more toxic than aceton or asbestos. One drop of benzene cannot kill a roomful of people. You can wash your hands in benzene, swallow a small amount of it (certainly a few drops) and suffer no immediate health problems. Benzene MAY cause cancer in some people. Just like asbestos.
Every technology advance is seen as dangerous. When the machine gun was invented around WWI, it was seen as a horrible weapon of mass destruction which would make future wars impossible. What was next? Chemical warfare, nuclear weapons, biological weapons, genetically modified organisms, W2K bug, AIDS, Microsoft dominance.
Humanity has a consistent track record of successfully dealing with dangers. Journalists have a consistent track record of looking for the next big scare.
Yes, nanotech will cause some deaths. At the same time nanotech will serve humanity. Or the humanity will become indistinguishable, become one with nanotech.
in a science show called _Ochevidnoe-Neveroyatnoe_ (Obvious-Unbelivable). I remember watching it when I was a kid. I distinctly remember that the guy used a bag with black gun powder moving on a string above the field of matches. Then I read a dozen papers clearly proving it to be a low density snow ball.
Do your research before posting yet another piece of 20 year old news.
The REAL issue is where you have to present said ID card.
This is absolutely correct. During the Soviet rule national ID had to be carried all the time and presented virtually everywhere. Airline? Show your ID. Check into a hotel? Show your ID. No, you can't check in with that lady because the ID does not identify her as your wife (I am serious, that's how it worked). Want to apply for a job? Show ID. No, you can't have the job because your address of residence is listed in another town. The ID had to be updated if you changed apartments.
Are you guys ready to give up that much of your freedom?
In the present day Russia the ID turned into a useless Soviet relic which solves no problems. It just keeps a few beaurocrats from looking for a new job. It's just funny to see how much things have changed in the last 10 years.