It's easy to think this looking at the paths, but it is not true. Guidance is generally greatly affected by the placement of high-pressure ridges and their future erosions/strengthenings. Frances could have just as easily turned harmlessly to the north had there not been a strong ridge keeping it where it was, and Ivan could have headed east to Mexico had the ridge to the north not eroded. In both cases, they behaved roughly as predicted. The paths of hurricanes are predicted fairly accurately these days, and it is mostly due to these models.
The most difficult part of the job is predicting hurricane intensity, which is not fully understood. That's why Charley caught everyone off-guard when it abruptly strengthend, and similarly in 2002 there was unexpected relief when Lili (who looked a lot like Ivan) weakened overnight just before it hit land.
The NHC discussion of the model guidance for each storm is here, under 'discussion' for each storm: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
They explain why they're agreeing with or discounting each model in their overall forecasts.
Generally, it's difficult to find much prediction of hurricane tracks that doesn't come somehow from the NHC. This isn't because there aren't independent analysists, but because they try not to send mixed signals, which might lead to people not evacuating when they should. The raw information from the computer models is the closest you get to dissenting opinions, afiak.
Google likes registering things like that. I remember being bored one day and moving my left hand over one space and typing Hoohlr instead of Google, and being terribly startled when it actually took me to Google. With the buttons and logo changed to say 'hoohlr search'. It's not there anymore, so maybe it was non-Google and got shut down for it. Anyone else ever run into that site?
Someone asked me to solve it without knowing what it was for. If I had solved the first one and gotten an idea of what I was looking for, I wouldn't have spent so long banging against the same brick wall you were.
Though there's no need to go churning through millions of digits. The density of primes among intergers is roughly 1/ln(n), so one in every 40-odd 10-digit numbers is prime. And indeed, the prime in question appears at about the 100th digit. Not that far in.
So the strategy of searching the digits of e is pretty quick. Even without knowing much perl and having to look things up a lot, I did it in a matter of minutes.
I was just trying to point out why he was getting some of the hostile responses he was -- there was an inconsistency in what he said, people were trying to call him on it, and he wasn't addressing that, he was attacking . . . himself. I don't know much about Mr. Gates and his situation, I was just trying to clarify the argument/help it move along.
You made a comparison [Bill Gates' evil to all other evils, calling it the worst]. Many people challenged this comparison. You've consistently responded by calling the comparison -- which you first made -- irrelevant, and bashing the challengers for making it.
Oops. First/. post and I mistype the link html. Smooth. I'll be going now.
Corrected post:
I use Maxthon(formerly MyIE2), which is a shell on top of the IE core. I've tried most major browsers and this is the one I've ended up with. I program and have a couple Linux computers.
Slashdot Mirror
It's easy to think this looking at the paths, but it is not true. Guidance is generally greatly affected by the placement of high-pressure ridges and their future erosions/strengthenings. Frances could have just as easily turned harmlessly to the north had there not been a strong ridge keeping it where it was, and Ivan could have headed east to Mexico had the ridge to the north not eroded. In both cases, they behaved roughly as predicted. The paths of hurricanes are predicted fairly accurately these days, and it is mostly due to these models.
The most difficult part of the job is predicting hurricane intensity, which is not fully understood. That's why Charley caught everyone off-guard when it abruptly strengthend, and similarly in 2002 there was unexpected relief when Lili (who looked a lot like Ivan) weakened overnight just before it hit land.
You can see the current predictions by each model at any given time here:n g/at200406_model.html
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracki
The NHC discussion of the model guidance for each storm is here, under 'discussion' for each storm:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
They explain why they're agreeing with or discounting each model in their overall forecasts.
Generally, it's difficult to find much prediction of hurricane tracks that doesn't come somehow from the NHC. This isn't because there aren't independent analysists, but because they try not to send mixed signals, which might lead to people not evacuating when they should. The raw information from the computer models is the closest you get to dissenting opinions, afiak.
Google likes registering things like that. I remember being bored one day and moving my left hand over one space and typing Hoohlr instead of Google, and being terribly startled when it actually took me to Google. With the buttons and logo changed to say 'hoohlr search'. It's not there anymore, so maybe it was non-Google and got shut down for it. Anyone else ever run into that site?
Someone asked me to solve it without knowing what it was for. If I had solved the first one and gotten an idea of what I was looking for, I wouldn't have spent so long banging against the same brick wall you were.
Though there's no need to go churning through millions of digits. The density of primes among intergers is roughly 1/ln(n), so one in every 40-odd 10-digit numbers is prime. And indeed, the prime in question appears at about the 100th digit. Not that far in.
So the strategy of searching the digits of e is pretty quick. Even without knowing much perl and having to look things up a lot, I did it in a matter of minutes.
I was just trying to point out why he was getting some of the hostile responses he was -- there was an inconsistency in what he said, people were trying to call him on it, and he wasn't addressing that, he was attacking . . . himself. I don't know much about Mr. Gates and his situation, I was just trying to clarify the argument/help it move along.
You made a comparison [Bill Gates' evil to all other evils, calling it the worst]. Many people challenged this comparison. You've consistently responded by calling the comparison -- which you first made -- irrelevant, and bashing the challengers for making it.
Just sayin'.
Oh god, but so many of us have. All the stereotypical racist rednecks are out here. I've met them.
Oops. First /. post and I mistype the link html. Smooth. I'll be going now.
/. post ever]
Corrected post:
I use Maxthon(formerly MyIE2), which is a shell on top of the IE core. I've tried most major browsers and this is the one I've ended up with. I program and have a couple Linux computers.
[2nd
I use (formerly MyIE2), which is a shell on top of the IE core. I've tried most major browsers and this is the one I've ended up with. I program and have a couple Linux computers. [first /. post ever]