Now that the US and USSR aren't dumping money into the bloody civil war in El Salvador, peace is taking hold, and telecom infrastructure is being rebuilt. There is also, for the first time, a burgeoning middle class that can afford computers and ISP service. On the streets of San Salvador, you will find advertisements for computer classes and ISPs.
My girlfriend's family (in the US) now regularly emails family in El Salvador. Yes, there still are brownouts and blackouts, especially during the rainy season, but they still manage to log in every day or so. Email is much cheaper than a long-distance phone call to Central America!
The networks may have been interested in the idea of allowing iCrave to do this if the company had come to them first and said, "Hey, let us open up whole new audiences for you."
No, the Networks would not have been interested. I've talked with them, it's pretty much 100% "NO TV ON THE INTERNET" with the exception of the Networks' own small experiments. Actually, they will license the shows to you for a few million per episode...
RealVideo and WMT Video do something that no non-proprietary video codecs can - bring reasonable video at low bitrates. It isn't all just DCT, there are supposedly wavelet elements in Real's video as well. Plus the devil is in the details, motion prediction and coefficient quanitization is a general concept, whether it fits down the pipe or not means spending a large amount of R&D time and money on figuring out the precise details of motion prediction and quantization.
But of course, I'd like to see an open source low-bitrate video codec. If you think you can write one, please do, and let us at The Sync take a look at it, if it works reasonably well, I'll be the first person to help you popularize it.
I am a streaming media professional, and here is the scoop. Windows Media Technology (WMT) is an excellent streaming platform. Microsoft has spent a lot of money and time to develop the software and to promote it.
Real Networks, who have tried to keep the Linux side of the RealServer and RealPlayer going, do not have funds from selling an OS to support them like Microsoft does. As a result, their server costs money. I've paid out a lot of money for their server to be able to serve Linux users. They also need to have advertising money driven by the "player portal." It sucks, but that's the way it is.
On the codec side, it is my opinion that there is no video codec that can compete with Real or WMT at the 20kbps department. That's usually 5-6 kbps audio, 14-15 kbps video. This is your typical 28.8kbps connection, and many people with 56k modems still need to use this data speed because of oversold ISPs and such.
Personally I don't see the server as a difficult piece of software to write...it just moves data. The encoder and player are the tough parts.
I am calling on the IPOed Linux companies to look seriously into ensuring that there is a low bitrate video system for Linux. Much like Microsoft, they are the people with the bucks to make this happen.
Imagine an open-source low-bitrate video system. Videoconferencing could be combined with broadcast capability to provide incredibly interactive new mechanisms of global communication. The possibilities are endless if the Linux community has access to the codecs.
If patent free codecs can't be created, they could be licensed by the big companies supporting Linux.
Is it that logical reasoning that can lead to this conclusion simply does not exist, and it is all a matter of perspective? Or is it that the citizens of those countries aren't able to get to the "enlightening" information?
In Cuba, any political mistakes you make (not attending a political rally, not volunteering for cutting sugar cane, etc.) goes on your permanent record. This can lead to you being unable to get a job.
Any political dissention can lead to your arrest. Informers are placed in almost every block. From the day you are born, you are faced with a daily decision to go along with the government line or face poverty or imprisonment.
In China, political dissent can be a death sentence as well.
Economic conditions in China are improving, people are getting rich, but people are politically apathetic -- and this is probably the worse thing that can happen to democracy in China, because if you're getting rich, why do you care about abstract concepts like democracy?
Gains that have happened in China are actually slowing down now as the government tries harder and harder to crack down on the political views of the growing middle class.
I don't think anyone can say one way or the other that trading with China will by itself end the totalitarian dictatorship there. At the end of the day, we cannot export freedom. If people want it, they must TAKE it for themselves.
However we can definately say that 1) there is a middle class in China now who are beginning to have the means to think about counter-revolution and 2) things are looking better there than Cuba, who the US has no trade with and 3) at least Chinese aren't starving to death in politically created famines as has happened in the past in China, and is happening right now in North Korea.
The reality is that since NAFTA, the economies of countries like Mexico and Ecuador (keep your eye on the current beginnings of a revolution in Ecuador) have been devastated, despite the fact that a large amount of our factory work has moved there.
Before the introduction in 1970 of protectionism and state direction of the economy, Mexico enjoyed annual growth rates of 6%, and single-digit inflation. Banks were nationalized in 1982, and by 1988 the inflation rate hit 159%, and real wages declined 45%. The Peso Crisis was only one in a long line of bad decisions in expansionist monetary policy in Mexico. Some argue that NAFTA made the recovery from the recent crisis much faster than similar events in the 80's. Mexico needs an independent voice like Alan Greenspan running their monetary policy. And they need to privatize the state owned oil monopoly, PEMEX.
Keep in mind there is only one party in real power in Mexico, the PRI, and it's been that way since the revolution. Even in El Salvador there is a rich multi-party democracy (now that the US and USSR stopped paying for the civil war), along with substantial growth of the economy.
Not to mention the incredible amount of drug war funded corruption in the Mexican government and police at all levels. Of course, I blame the US for the drug war.
The problem with "no government" is that history shows that without some universal concept of justice, the truth of justice will lie with those with the most powerful weapons.
While it is true that undemocratic governments are often THE MOST unjust forces around, democracies that enforce both justice and freedoms seem to be better off than, say, Somalia.
The biggest reason why we need government is justice. However that sense of justice has to be tempered as much as possible to maximum freedom.
The socialist democracies are learning that freedom of commerce is important. For example, whatever happened to "Japan, Inc."? Guess those centrally mandated R&D projects didn't compare with a bunch of US hackers. Why is Linus working for an American company? Red Hat could be anywhere on the planet, why is it in the US? Because the US is where capital flows are freest, although still regulated enough to insure justice.
Hopefully the US will continue to remember that its success so far has hinged on personal and economic freedom, which although could be expanded, still compares favorably to just about anywhere on the planet.
Several sites have already been doing "online film festivals" for 2-3 years now. The Sync's Festival allows viewers to vote for their favorite movies in several categories.
When we first started the festival, we got a lot of concern from filmakers about intellectual property and people ripping off their films. As a result, the films you see online in their entireity are the ones with smaller budgets. Often they, well, are not the highest quality. But then sometimes you do find a gleaming pearl among those oysters...and that's why we still do it.
We stick to under 30-minute films, as statistics show that is the longest 99% of people watch streaming video for. But with broadband there will eventually be a niche for longer films. Some people do watch the full length of the few feature films we've put up (such as Nosferatu and the Cabinet of Dr. Caligari)
In the video world, Firewire is available in almost every cool DV camcorders, including the Sony VX-1000, the most used DV camcorder for broadcast uses (interviewing people living in trees, or for use in Kosovo without sticking out like a BetaCam would).
My girlfriend and co-founder of The Sync acquired gastroparesis from eating tainted food. She has been unresponsive to all prokinetic medicines available in the US by prescription.
One medicine which has not been approved by the FDA is Domperidone. Her gastroenterologist revealed to us recently that despite the drug being available in many countries around the world (Japan, South Africa, UK, etc.) it was not available for prescription in the US. Evdiently the costs of trials to get US FDA approval turned out to be prohibitive.
Severe gastroparesis is a disease that works havoc on your quality of life, limiting your diet, and often making sleep impossible for days on end.
Fortunately, she knew a doctor in El Salvador who was willing to ship the drug into the United States. There, all medicines are over-the-counter. Her US gastroenterologist could not even legally contact the drug company to check on side effects, or give her a prescription for needed blood tests to check how the drug was affecting her liver. Thanks, US government!
I'm certainly a ranting libertarian, but I'm willing to compromise on this issue. Let's say the FDA is an "advisory" body rather than a regulatory body. If you want the FDA "stamp of approval" on your medicine, you run the huge, expensive trials. Perhaps the FDA should also be in charge of purity of ingrediants in medicine. However doctors should be free to prescribe the drugs that people need, regardless of FDA status.
Given the strong tort system of the United States (w.r.t. breast implants and Phen-Fen, both of which got a bum rap in the courts), and the lucrative field of malpractice suits, the FDA is not needed today as the ultimate regulator of drugs.
Send email to me if you are interested in playing Geeks in Space on public access cable or non-profit radio station. We'll look at it on a case-by-case basis.
Rant all you want about RealNetworks, but at least they have a Linux version of their player, more than I can say for the next leading competitor in low bitrate streaming media (i.e. Windows Media Technology). Linux is also the base OS for the development of the RealServer.
I do understand Real's need to "encourage" people to purchase the RealPlayerPlus, because they need to make money to keep up the excellent low-bitrate R&D they've been doing. Unlike Microsoft, they can't just chalk it up to selling more NT Server software.
If discovery of life in other solar systems leads to "unification" of Earth to reach out to our neighbors, would this be like the "unification" of Northern Europe for the crusades (to kill and pillage) or like the "unification" of the United States to relocate and kill native people. Or the "unification" of the Soviet Socialist Republic for the good of the workers?
Personally, I get worried when everyone gets together to unite under the one, true cause...
The patent for making a customized audio CDs was held by Ergon Technology Associates (U.S. Patent No. 5,592,511) and was issued in January of 1997. In late 1997, this patent was licensed by superSonicBoom, a small start-up in the Washington, DC, area that sold custom CDs over the Net. They were acquired by CDNow in mid 1998, along with the patent license.
If you were listening to the first 45 seconds of the last Geeks in Space episode, you would know the ZD is hosting Linux Business Expo to run along with COMDEX. You even get to hear Linus's COMDEX keynote if you go to the Expo.
The Expo will have keynotes from Red Hat, Corel, and Caldera execs, plus a Linux learning center where suits can find out about Linux. VA Linux Systems is even sponsoring an "email garden".
Actually, cable companies rent pole space from the local power company. Anyone can do it for a few dollars per year per pole. However don't try to offer cable television service without a local franchise.
There is talk of setting up a local "phone company" here in Laurel that would deliver phone, television, and Internet over fiber to home. The technology is not tough, the regulations are.
There are no such things as natural monopolies. There are only such things as government bureaucrats giving fat cats monopoly powers.
Every time a "natural monopoly" has been broken up, it has ended up that a competitive marketplace is far better for the consumer. Cable competition is the shining star example.
There was a time when there were many local power companies and many local phone companies. They were forced out of business by government, they did not end "naturally".
Local governments set up monopoly cable franchises. The theory was that in exchange for a monopoly local franchise, cable companies would charge reasonable rates. Of course, we all know what really happened, cable companies filled up required channels with the cheapest programming, and rates were high anyway. Most areas with cable competition have lower cable rates than monopoly franchise areas. A closer look typically reveals that these monopoly franchises are often granted with various kickbacks to the local governments (certain people's cousins getting parts of the franchise, etc.) Instead of creating new open access regulations, I suggest that the FCC make the granting and re-issuing monopoly cable franchises illegal. Open up the ability to put infrastructure in place.
Being an Internet video producer, I have a feeling that POP.com will be a flop. We've already seen DEN's attempt to try to figure out what people on the Net want to watch (and "Frat Ratz" isn't it!). Pseudo does a bit better job, but their long-form live shows do not translate well into view-on-demand.
You can't just put anything up and expect an Internet audience to watch it. Net video content has to be relavent to the viewers. We're talking about shows with fierce independence, intellectual and emotional openess, free expression of often strong views, investigatory shows, and it can't be too corporate.
That's why we approached Slashdot to do Geeks in Space, even though we can't afford to make it a video show today, it is something that people want to listen to. People listen to GIS because it is relavent to them, the nerdy/geeky/hacker/open source population.
If you can watch it on TV today, you don't need it on the Net. It looks a hell of a lot better on TV. However there are plenty of opportunities to do cool video shows on the Net, you just have to have some clue about what Net viewers want to watch.
What scares me is that if POP and DEN don't work out, the entire Internet video industry could look really bad. I'm hoping that before that happens some money flows into the people who are making cool Internet video.
Slashdot Mirror
Now that the US and USSR aren't dumping money into the bloody civil war in El Salvador, peace is taking hold, and telecom infrastructure is being rebuilt. There is also, for the first time, a burgeoning middle class that can afford computers and ISP service. On the streets of San Salvador, you will find advertisements for computer classes and ISPs.
My girlfriend's family (in the US) now regularly emails family in El Salvador. Yes, there still are brownouts and blackouts, especially during the rainy season, but they still manage to log in every day or so. Email is much cheaper than a long-distance phone call to Central America!
There is now even a Cyber Cafe in El Salvador.
If the US ever drops its protectionist textile tarriffs against El Salvador, maybe there will be even more people online...
The networks may have been interested in the idea of allowing iCrave to do this if the company had come to them first and said, "Hey, let us open up whole new audiences for you."
No, the Networks would not have been interested. I've talked with them, it's pretty much 100% "NO TV ON THE INTERNET" with the exception of the Networks' own small experiments. Actually, they will license the shows to you for a few million per episode...
RealVideo and WMT Video do something that no non-proprietary video codecs can - bring reasonable video at low bitrates. It isn't all just DCT, there are supposedly wavelet elements in Real's video as well. Plus the devil is in the details, motion prediction and coefficient quanitization is a general concept, whether it fits down the pipe or not means spending a large amount of R&D time and money on figuring out the precise details of motion prediction and quantization.
But of course, I'd like to see an open source low-bitrate video codec. If you think you can write one, please do, and let us at The Sync take a look at it, if it works reasonably well, I'll be the first person to help you popularize it.
Taco Bell is the one fast food place where you can
get a high-fiber and reasonably low-fast product,
the bean burrito (hold the cheese).
On the bright side, I doubt MS could have ever written anything small enough to work on it
Doh, they wrote the BASIC that was in the PET ROMs. I believe they also wrote some games for the PET.
I am a streaming media professional, and here is the scoop. Windows Media Technology (WMT) is an excellent streaming platform. Microsoft has spent a lot of money and time to develop the software and to promote it.
Real Networks, who have tried to keep the Linux side of the RealServer and RealPlayer going, do not have funds from selling an OS to support them like Microsoft does. As a result, their server costs money. I've paid out a lot of money for their server to be able to serve Linux users. They also need to have advertising money driven by the "player portal." It sucks, but that's the way it is.
On the codec side, it is my opinion that there is no video codec that can compete with Real or WMT at the 20kbps department. That's usually 5-6 kbps audio, 14-15 kbps video. This is your typical 28.8kbps connection, and many people with 56k modems still need to use this data speed because of oversold ISPs and such.
Personally I don't see the server as a difficult piece of software to write...it just moves data. The encoder and player are the tough parts.
I am calling on the IPOed Linux companies to look seriously into ensuring that there is a low bitrate video system for Linux. Much like Microsoft, they are the people with the bucks to make this happen.
Imagine an open-source low-bitrate video system. Videoconferencing could be combined with broadcast capability to provide incredibly interactive new mechanisms of global communication. The possibilities are endless if the Linux community has access to the codecs.
If patent free codecs can't be created, they could be licensed by the big companies supporting Linux.
Is it that logical reasoning that can lead to this conclusion simply does not exist, and it is all a matter of perspective? Or is it that the citizens of those countries aren't able to get to the "enlightening" information?
In Cuba, any political mistakes you make (not attending a political rally, not volunteering for cutting sugar cane, etc.) goes on your permanent record. This can lead to you being unable to get a job.
Any political dissention can lead to your arrest. Informers are placed in almost every block. From the day you are born, you are faced with a daily decision to go along with the government line or face poverty or imprisonment.
In China, political dissent can be a death sentence as well.
Economic conditions in China are improving, people are getting rich, but people are politically apathetic -- and this is probably the worse thing that can happen to democracy in China, because if you're getting rich, why do you care about abstract concepts like democracy?
Gains that have happened in China are actually slowing down now as the government tries harder and harder to crack down on the political views of the growing middle class.
I don't think anyone can say one way or the other that trading with China will by itself end the totalitarian dictatorship there. At the end of the day, we cannot export freedom. If people want it, they must TAKE it for themselves.
However we can definately say that 1) there is a middle class in China now who are beginning to have the means to think about counter-revolution and 2) things are looking better there than Cuba, who the US has no trade with and 3) at least Chinese aren't starving to death in politically created famines as has happened in the past in China, and is happening right now in North Korea.
The reality is that since NAFTA, the economies of countries like Mexico and Ecuador (keep your eye on the current beginnings of a revolution in Ecuador) have been devastated, despite the fact that a large amount of our factory work has moved there.
Before the introduction in 1970 of protectionism and state direction of the economy, Mexico enjoyed annual growth rates of 6%, and single-digit inflation. Banks were nationalized in 1982, and by 1988 the inflation rate hit 159%, and real wages declined 45%. The Peso Crisis was only one in a long line of bad decisions in expansionist monetary policy in Mexico. Some argue that NAFTA made the recovery from the recent crisis much faster than similar events in the 80's. Mexico needs an independent voice like Alan Greenspan running their monetary policy. And they need to privatize the state owned oil monopoly, PEMEX.
Keep in mind there is only one party in real power in Mexico, the PRI, and it's been that way since the revolution. Even in El Salvador there is a rich multi-party democracy (now that the US and USSR stopped paying for the civil war), along with substantial growth of the economy.
Not to mention the incredible amount of drug war funded corruption in the Mexican government and police at all levels. Of course, I blame the US for the drug war.
Some Cato Institute refs:
Too Many Sanctions
A Chance to Rethink Sanctions
Stuck in Sanctions
Time to Stop Sanctioning the World
The problem with "no government" is that history shows that without some universal concept of justice, the truth of justice will lie with those with the most powerful weapons.
While it is true that undemocratic governments are often THE MOST unjust forces around, democracies that enforce both justice and freedoms seem to be better off than, say, Somalia.
The biggest reason why we need government is justice. However that sense of justice has to be tempered as much as possible to maximum freedom.
The socialist democracies are learning that freedom of commerce is important. For example, whatever happened to "Japan, Inc."? Guess those centrally mandated R&D projects didn't compare with a bunch of US hackers. Why is Linus working for an American company? Red Hat could be anywhere on the planet, why is it in the US? Because the US is where capital flows are freest, although still regulated enough to insure justice.
Hopefully the US will continue to remember that its success so far has hinged on personal and economic freedom, which although could be expanded, still compares favorably to just about anywhere on the planet.
Several sites have already been doing "online film festivals" for 2-3 years now. The Sync's Festival allows viewers to vote for their favorite movies in several categories.
When we first started the festival, we got a lot of concern from filmakers about intellectual property and people ripping off their films. As a result, the films you see online in their entireity are the ones with smaller budgets. Often they, well, are not the highest quality. But then sometimes you do find a gleaming pearl among those oysters...and that's why we still do it.
We stick to under 30-minute films, as statistics show that is the longest 99% of people watch streaming video for. But with broadband there will eventually be a niche for longer films. Some people do watch the full length of the few feature films we've put up (such as Nosferatu and the Cabinet of Dr. Caligari)
You can check out pictures of a "bagable" wearable webcam here here, and also and informative video on turning a laptop into a wearable.
In the video world, Firewire is available in almost every cool DV camcorders, including the Sony VX-1000, the most used DV camcorder for broadcast uses (interviewing people living in trees, or for use in Kosovo without sticking out like a BetaCam would).
My girlfriend and co-founder of The Sync acquired gastroparesis from eating tainted food. She has been unresponsive to all prokinetic medicines available in the US by prescription.
One medicine which has not been approved by the FDA is Domperidone. Her gastroenterologist revealed to us recently that despite the drug being available in many countries around the world (Japan, South Africa, UK, etc.) it was not available for prescription in the US. Evdiently the costs of trials to get US FDA approval turned out to be prohibitive.
Severe gastroparesis is a disease that works havoc on your quality of life, limiting your diet, and often making sleep impossible for days on end.
Fortunately, she knew a doctor in El Salvador who was willing to ship the drug into the United States. There, all medicines are over-the-counter. Her US gastroenterologist could not even legally contact the drug company to check on side effects, or give her a prescription for needed blood tests to check how the drug was affecting her liver. Thanks, US government!
I'm certainly a ranting libertarian, but I'm willing to compromise on this issue. Let's say the FDA is an "advisory" body rather than a regulatory body. If you want the FDA "stamp of approval" on your medicine, you run the huge, expensive trials. Perhaps the FDA should also be in charge of purity of ingrediants in medicine. However doctors should be free to prescribe the drugs that people need, regardless of FDA status.
Given the strong tort system of the United States (w.r.t. breast implants and Phen-Fen, both of which got a bum rap in the courts), and the lucrative field of malpractice suits, the FDA is not needed today as the ultimate regulator of drugs.
Send email to me if you are interested in playing Geeks in Space on public access cable or non-profit radio station. We'll look at it on a case-by-case basis.
Rant all you want about RealNetworks, but at least they have a Linux version of their player, more than I can say for the next leading competitor in low bitrate streaming media (i.e. Windows Media Technology). Linux is also the base OS for the development of the RealServer.
I do understand Real's need to "encourage" people to purchase the RealPlayerPlus, because they need to make money to keep up the excellent low-bitrate R&D they've been doing. Unlike Microsoft, they can't just chalk it up to selling more NT Server software.
If discovery of life in other solar systems leads to "unification" of Earth to reach out to our neighbors, would this be like the "unification" of Northern Europe for the crusades (to kill and pillage) or like the "unification" of the United States to relocate and kill native people. Or the "unification" of the Soviet Socialist Republic for the good of the workers?
Personally, I get worried when everyone gets together to unite under the one, true cause...
The patent for making a customized audio CDs was held by Ergon Technology Associates (U.S. Patent No. 5,592,511) and was issued in January of 1997. In late 1997, this patent was licensed by superSonicBoom, a small start-up in the Washington, DC, area that sold custom CDs over the Net. They were acquired by CDNow in mid 1998, along with the patent license.
If you were listening to the first 45 seconds of the last Geeks in Space episode, you would know the ZD is hosting Linux Business Expo to run along with COMDEX. You even get to hear Linus's COMDEX keynote if you go to the Expo.
The Expo will have keynotes from Red Hat, Corel, and Caldera execs, plus a Linux learning center where suits can find out about Linux. VA Linux Systems is even sponsoring an "email garden".
There is talk of setting up a local "phone company" here in Laurel that would deliver phone, television, and Internet over fiber to home. The technology is not tough, the regulations are.
Every time a "natural monopoly" has been broken up, it has ended up that a competitive marketplace is far better for the consumer. Cable competition is the shining star example.
There was a time when there were many local power companies and many local phone companies. They were forced out of business by government, they did not end "naturally".
Local governments set up monopoly cable franchises. The theory was that in exchange for a monopoly local franchise, cable companies would charge reasonable rates. Of course, we all know what really happened, cable companies filled up required channels with the cheapest programming, and rates were high anyway. Most areas with cable competition have lower cable rates than monopoly franchise areas. A closer look typically reveals that these monopoly franchises are often granted with various kickbacks to the local governments (certain people's cousins getting parts of the franchise, etc.) Instead of creating new open access regulations, I suggest that the FCC make the granting and re-issuing monopoly cable franchises illegal. Open up the ability to put infrastructure in place.
Year Typical Big Backbone Speed
1992 T-1 1.544 Mbps
1995 T-3 44.736 Mbps
1996 OC-3 155.52 Mbps
1997 OC-12 622.08 Mbps
1999 OC-48 2.488 Gbps
logarithmic prediction:
2000 OC-192 10 Gbps
2002 100 Gbps
2004 1 Tbps
2006 10 Tbps
Thought: 10 Tbps = 1.6 kbps for every person on the planet
Being an Internet video producer, I have a feeling that POP.com will be a flop. We've already seen DEN's attempt to try to figure out what people on the Net want to watch (and "Frat Ratz" isn't it!). Pseudo does a bit better job, but their long-form live shows do not translate well into view-on-demand.
You can't just put anything up and expect an Internet audience to watch it. Net video content has to be relavent to the viewers. We're talking about shows with fierce independence, intellectual and emotional openess, free expression of often strong views, investigatory shows, and it can't be too corporate.
That's why we approached Slashdot to do Geeks in Space, even though we can't afford to make it a video show today, it is something that people want to listen to. People listen to GIS because it is relavent to them, the nerdy/geeky/hacker/open source population.
If you can watch it on TV today, you don't need it on the Net. It looks a hell of a lot better on TV. However there are plenty of opportunities to do cool video shows on the Net, you just have to have some clue about what Net viewers want to watch.
What scares me is that if POP and DEN don't work out, the entire Internet video industry could look really bad. I'm hoping that before that happens some money flows into the people who are making cool Internet video.