Yes - This happens a lot. Try to explain non-Gaussian stats to management. In some places (like major banks) it should be possible. There are some other good comments in this thread about the conceptual failure in using these types of statistics at all - tl;dr - modelling political risk with statistics doesn't work because such things are outside the paradigm. There is some good descriptive stuff by someone who worked in electricity trading about how stats fail.
The problem isn't detecting the loss after the event the problem is predicting 23 sigma moves.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/ubs-and-big-trade The trade was profitable until the SNB capped the CHF , capping the trade and trader in the process. At least that is a reasonable working hypothesis. Everything was fine until a week ago. What happened then? The Swiss National Bank announced a cap of their currency vs the Euro.
Why did he have such a large position ? That Risk & Management MUST have known about. And were OK with while it was a winner. When it became a loss, the trader was shafted.
I was trying to think of a situation in which this makes sense but couldn't. Scenario: Download "With The Marines At Tarawa" from the Internet Archive. Broadcast or stream over the internet. Gain broadcast rights so no-one else can do it. How does this promote any art or science? What am I missing?
http://arxiv.org/abs/1104.2948 ""We present precise measurements of the growth rate of cosmic structure for the redshift range 0.1 z 0.9, using redshift-space distortions in the galaxy power spectrum of the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey. Our results, which have a precision of around 10% in four independent redshift bins, are well-fit by a flat LCDM cosmological model with matter density parameter Omega_m = 0.27." Comments: 17 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication by MNRAS"
PGO did work on linux for a while a few years back but stopped when some code changes to the FF core borked PGO on linux (?jsctypes? was one thing maybe). - actually gcc 4.? didn't cope. We have then had to wait for a compiler upgrade to make it work again.
http://www.auscert.org.au/render.html?cid=2 "Formed in 1993, AusCERT is one of the oldest CERTs in the world and was the first CERT in Australia to operate as the national CERT, which it did until 2010. "
As always governments don't like competition - in this case for security & secrets
"Almost every single book published since 1966 has an ISBN number. These days they all start 978, then there's another ten digits. The last one's a check digit made by multiplying the others up in a certain way.
So I wrote a program that searches Pi for ISBN numbers. Then it checks them to see if the check digit is a valid one. Then it looks the ISBN up on Google Books.
I got three hits in the first fifty million digits of Pi. It took about ten minutes. Actually, it took about three hours to write the thing properly, another hour debugging it, and a frustrated lie in the bath half way through. And about six cups of tea. Once it actually worked it was fairly quick though. "
4 telescopes with wide field cameras on probes sent to "above" and "below" the ecliptic roughly centered over the sun. 2 each direction so one as backup.
Monitor everything - always lit up by the sun except for when it is eclipsed by a planet.
I tried to draw an ascii pic of the setup but too lame
I know BigW keep them for up to a week - stuck disk in all the thumbnails up and I asked - how long do you keep them? Up to a week as customers often come back. Can you delete them for me now? No.
I haven't been back there to have photo's printed. and any shop - i grab just the pics I want printed and put them on an sd card and put that in.
Why feed the Beast more than it needs to? If we don't make the data available, the Beast can't eat it.
Approving movie futures contracts would be the "economic equivalent of legalized gambling," MPAA interim Chief Executive Officer Bob Pisano said in a letter March 23 to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The Cantor Futures Exchange, a unit of Cantor Fitzgerald LP, and Trend Exchange, backed by Veriana Networks LLC, are seeking approval to create markets that would permit investors to trade on futures based on box-office receipts before a film is released. Cantor would be open to individual and institutional investors while Trend Exchange would be limited to institutions. " ""The reputation and integrity of our industry could be tarnished by allowing trading in the movie futures contracts," Pisano said in the letter."
Can't have Hollywood movies integrity compromised can we?
There is a newer paper I found when looking for this one by the same authors http://search.arxiv.org:8081/paper.jsp?r=0905.3417&qid=null&qs=Lev+B.+Levitin+and+Tommaso+Toffoli&byDate=1 The fundamental limit on the rate of quantum dynamics: the unified bound is tight "The question of how fast a quantum state can evolve has attracted a considerable attention in connection with quantum measurement, metrology, and information processing. Since only orthogonal states can be unambiguously distinguished, a transition from a state to an orthogonal one can be taken as the elementary step of a computational process. "
Slashdot Mirror
or evolutionary pressure could cause the spam masters to write semi-intelligent software to bot post useful on topic information
"just look at the Zimbabwe Dollar..."
or the US dollar vs gold.
Question for those playing at home: at gold price in US dollars does the USA have assets greater than it's liabilities?
Yes - This happens a lot. Try to explain non-Gaussian stats to management. In some places (like major banks) it should be possible. There are some other good comments in this thread about the conceptual failure in using these types of statistics at all - tl;dr - modelling political risk with statistics doesn't work because such things are outside the paradigm. There is some good descriptive stuff by someone who worked in electricity trading about how stats fail.
And the EUR/CHF trade hyptohesis appears to be wrong
More detail: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-19/ubs-raises-trade-losses/2905262?section=business
""The loss resulted from unauthorised speculative trading in various S&P 500, DAX, and EuroStoxx index futures over the last three months," UBS said in a brief statement."
The problem isn't detecting the loss after the event the problem is predicting 23 sigma moves.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/ubs-and-big-trade
The trade was profitable until the SNB capped the CHF , capping the trade and trader in the process. At least that is a reasonable working hypothesis. Everything was fine until a week ago. What happened then? The Swiss National Bank announced a cap of their currency vs the Euro.
Why did he have such a large position ? That Risk & Management MUST have known about. And were OK with while it was a winner. When it became a loss, the trader was shafted.
- call the IRS and audit the bastards for back tax
it's goatse
Try this
https://secure.toolness.com/xpi/collusion.html
http://www.toolness.com/wp/2011/07/collusion/
True if they want to go to sites outside the mesh.
How many interconnect points until monitoring becomes impractical?
is there a way to fairly distribute the cost to maintain the interconnects?
No revenue for kickbacks
No gatekeeper to charge ISP fees
No gatekeeper to monitor who is being naughty or nice
Quick do it now and do it fast before Rupert or Richard snaffle it.
I was trying to think of a situation in which this makes sense but couldn't.
Scenario:
Download "With The Marines At Tarawa" from the Internet Archive.
Broadcast or stream over the internet. Gain broadcast rights so no-one else can do it.
How does this promote any art or science?
What am I missing?
So hopefully others can find it
From my submission last week (the 19th), http://slashdot.org/journal/265330/Dark-energy---real
http://arxiv.org/abs/1104.2948
""We present precise measurements of the growth rate of cosmic structure for the redshift range 0.1 z 0.9, using redshift-space distortions in the galaxy power spectrum of the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey. Our results, which have a precision of around 10% in four independent redshift bins, are well-fit by a flat LCDM cosmological model with matter density parameter Omega_m = 0.27."
Comments: 17 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication by MNRAS"
PGO did work on linux for a while a few years back but stopped when some code changes to the FF core borked PGO on linux (?jsctypes? was one thing maybe). - actually gcc 4.? didn't cope. We have then had to wait for a compiler upgrade to make it work again.
Yes I am subscribed to the bugs.
And thanks for working on this.
http://www.auscert.org.au/ and http://www.cert.gov.au/
http://www.auscert.org.au/render.html?cid=2
"Formed in 1993, AusCERT is one of the oldest CERTs in the world and was the first CERT in Australia to operate as the national CERT, which it did until 2010. "
As always governments don't like competition - in this case for security & secrets
Not me - was just, well it was just
http://slashdot.org/~History's+Coming+To/journal/258158
http://artificialphilosophy.blogspot.com/2010/11/pisbn-project.html
"Almost every single book published since 1966 has an ISBN number. These days they all start 978, then there's another ten digits. The last one's a check digit made by multiplying the others up in a certain way.
So I wrote a program that searches Pi for ISBN numbers. Then it checks them to see if the check digit is a valid one. Then it looks the ISBN up on Google Books.
I got three hits in the first fifty million digits of Pi. It took about ten minutes. Actually, it took about three hours to write the thing properly, another hour debugging it, and a frustrated lie in the bath half way through. And about six cups of tea. Once it actually worked it was fairly quick though.
"
"No greedy courtsluts will be harmed in the production of these axes."
That is disappointing.
Can you at least make them cry a bit.
NBN rolled out with almost all traffic traveling over a backbone controlled by ine entity is a kill switch.
A single point of failure with one control system and a major control interface?
Who needs legislation when you control the router tables?
All the other isps will interconnect. That just leaves the very few submarine cables and satellites to manage.
A big Hi to the people at DSD.
I use my cuecat regularly - scanning barcoded isbns into alexandria so it can go away and look up all the details for me
Everything out there is roughly flat.
4 telescopes with wide field cameras on probes sent to "above" and "below" the ecliptic roughly centered over the sun. 2 each direction so one as backup.
Monitor everything - always lit up by the sun except for when it is eclipsed by a planet.
I tried to draw an ascii pic of the setup but too lame
I know BigW keep them for up to a week - stuck disk in all the thumbnails up and I asked - how long do you keep them? Up to a week as customers often come back. Can you delete them for me now? No.
I haven't been back there to have photo's printed. and any shop - i grab just the pics I want printed and put them on an sd card and put that in.
Why feed the Beast more than it needs to? If we don't make the data available, the Beast can't eat it.
but this stuff might be:
http://vocamus.net/dave/?p=1074
found on planet.mozilla
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601204&sid=aBtiaTy.Q1vw
"The Motion Picture Association of America asked regulators to reject proposals from two planned exchanges that would allow investors to trade in movie futures.
Approving movie futures contracts would be the "economic equivalent of legalized gambling," MPAA interim Chief Executive Officer Bob Pisano said in a letter March 23 to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The Cantor Futures Exchange, a unit of Cantor Fitzgerald LP, and Trend Exchange, backed by Veriana Networks LLC, are seeking approval to create markets that would permit investors to trade on futures based on box-office receipts before a film is released. Cantor would be open to individual and institutional investors while Trend Exchange would be limited to institutions.
"
""The reputation and integrity of our industry could be tarnished by allowing trading in the movie futures contracts," Pisano said in the letter."
Can't have Hollywood movies integrity compromised can we?
Bluetooth worked in Hardy & intrepid for me. Stopped and started again in Intrepid. Then failed.
Worked for about a week in Jaunty.
Still dead in karmic - hci timeout
Latest bug
https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/+source/bluez/+bug/453885
Original bug
https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/+source/linux/+bug/268502
Did an upgrade to KK a few weeks back - some grub2 links I found
http://slashdot.org/journal/238659/Karmic-Koala-Ubuntu-910-stuff
There is a newer paper I found when looking for this one by the same authors
http://search.arxiv.org:8081/paper.jsp?r=0905.3417&qid=null&qs=Lev+B.+Levitin+and+Tommaso+Toffoli&byDate=1
The fundamental limit on the rate of quantum dynamics: the unified bound is tight
"The question of how fast a quantum state can evolve has attracted a considerable attention in connection with quantum measurement, metrology, and information processing. Since only orthogonal states can be unambiguously distinguished, a transition from a state to an orthogonal one can be taken as the elementary step of a computational process. "
arxiv is your friend
http://search.arxiv.org:8081/paper.jsp?r=0905.3417&qid=null&qs=Lev+B.+Levitin+and+Tommaso+Toffoli&byDate=1
most released papers have a pre-print arxiv version.
Search by lots of different things