Wow, quite the straw man you built up there. Why do you need me in the conversation?
Once again you lecture me on companies learning, and yet somehow deny that the first Model 3s will be of lower quality than later Model 3s. The only way that is possible is if the learning stops.
I'm sure that they'll learn. I'm sure their products will be high-quality. But I'm also sure that the first ones off the line won't be as nice as the last ones. I'm sure someone could pull out an example of declining quality over the life of the product, but I don't think that will be the case with Tesla. I do know that they are about to do two things that they've never attempted: true volume production and massive cost reduction. There will be a learning curve.
Wow, you managed to type all that without addressing the problem that Tesla is now on their 3rd car and is still having birthing problems with it.
Birthing problems are fundamental to new product development, and Tesla is not magic. They seem to be quite good, but they still will have rough edges when they attempt truly mass production and significant cost reduction for the very first time.
The Model 3 won't have this kind of problem because the Model X provides a source of lessons learned.
"The Model X won't have this kind of problem because the Roadster and Model S provides a source of lessons learned."
This is exactly what I'm talking about. I like Tesla - I really do. I like the cars, I like the focus of the company, and I like the customer relations. The quality seems to be at or above even Lexus levels. But the reality distortion field is strong with them. I feel like I'm trying to have conversations with otherwise rational people who have recently encountered a Jedi.
That's exactly the point, though. The people arguing with me the other day said that Tesla was special, that the initial quality of the Model 3 will be higher than a product from one of the other automakers.
Even if it's special, it's not THAT special. Buying a first-run of any product is risky - Tesla inclusive.
The fact that you have to save up to buy a car confirms that $1000 is a significantly amount of money for you. People who don't have to think about $1000, just buy a car.
Everyone has to either (a) save for a car or (b) finance one. The only other options are edge cases like gifts or raffles. Before you get into a semantic game with me, I realize that you can already have a pile of money sitting around. That's what I'm calling savings.
Apple has the highest customer satisfaction in the industry.
I quite like Apple's products, and I quite like Tesla's. At the Apple Store, some of the line people seem to have fun with it - good for them. Personally, the unhappiness that I would experience would far outweigh the happiness brought by a slight jump on the rest of the earth in possessing the newest iThing first. But there is no line for the Tesla - just the loss of use of $1000. No one is masochistic enough to like that.
Everyone who drives a Tesla loves the experience (not the turning heads).
If that's the case, and if money is no object, then why aren't these depositors simply buying a Model S? You can get it right now, get your tax credit, and bask in Tesla goodness immediately. No, these people either cannot afford or are unwilling to spend the money on a Model S.
Your fundamental problem is that $1000 is a significantly difficult amount of money for you.
No, my problem is that I'm too old to care what people think when they see me driving a car. I'm also too old to fall for psychological marketing tricks like making people feel like they'll miss out because of an artificial sense of scarcity. Waiting 6 months to a year is not a big deal anymore.
What is this "stereotyping" crap? I'm judging people based on their actions - that's the opposite of a stereotype. You are the one pulling the stereotyping garbage with the assumption that I can't afford $1000. When you only buy a car every 10 years or so it is easy to save up to pay cash for them.
There is no way to defend the fronting of $1000 for a yet-to-exist car on economic terms. I'm sorry if that in some way offends you. I understand the emotional component, but also am not afraid to point out to people that they are basically doing the same thing as the lunks that stand around at Apple stores, or who wait in line for a pair of Air Jordans. It's your money, do with it what you will.
It might be good. If something like this happened in the US, it might finally wean our financial institutions off of using the stupid SS# as a universal id / security token. The whole system is setup to fail over something like this.
The tax savings is probably false, unless you neglect the impact to the resale value. The tax credit comes pretty much right off the top at resale time. So if you were planning on running your Tesla into the ground, then yes you could realize a tax savings. Otherwise you are simply deferring the cost until trade-in.
To be fair, Tesla has nearly used up their tax credits, so it is conceivable that a few of these people will luck out and get a Tesla for the $7500 discount. At this point they could theoretically hold on to the car for a year or so as the tax credits taper off, and then resell with no impact to the used car price. I would suggest, however, that one force works against this: the continuous improvement in battery technology. The same cost reduction that allowed the Tesla 3 in the first place will continue. This will make either the batteries cheaper or the range longer in newer cars. A used car with $12,000 batteries will be worth no more than the same performing car with $10,000 batteries 3 years later. The used market does not care what the original purchase price of the car is.
Anyway, in general it is foolish to approach a car as an asset. It is a liability, and the rational economic thing to do is minimize your expenditures. I will admit that is not much fun:)
Heh, we've wandered into "win a Nobel if you figure it out" territory:)
I think that setting schools up into 1000-student-ish campuses encompassing ages 5-18 is the way to go. Make it a goal to get out of there as soon as possible: once a student gets to "AP" courses, they really need to be in more of a college setting. At that point, move to a secondary education campus or the technical education campus. Set up all of the language arts at the same time so that students can smoothly move between classes by ability. It's OK to have a 10 and a 14 year old in the same reading class. Get rid of the concept of "classes" and just move kids up by subject. Recruit kids who are ahead to help kids who are behind. Get rid of arbitrary cut-offs for public funding - if a special ed kid needs an extra few years to finish up, let him. If a kid finishes everything by 16, pay for community college courses rather than cramming too much AP-type stuff into primary education.
Give teachers incentives for efficiently moving kids up the ladder. A failure in a class becomes somewhat inexcusable if pace is not age-determined.
It would be an interesting experiment, in any case.
That is true, though I suspect that the battery cost decline which enabled the Model 3 in the first place will continue, which will further undermine the value as newer electric cars become cheaper and cheaper.
I agree that, emotionally, it is tempting to buy. The nice thing about middle age is that part of the brain is less important than it used to be:)
My motivations are not clear - I was just responding to a comment that I thought summed it up quite well: the reality distortion field is strong.
For what it's worth, I want a Leaf-style car with a smaller battery (and correspondingly cheaper). It would be perfect for my 10 mile commute. When gas goes back up, maybe I'll pick a used one up - they are kind of crappy but at $11k very tempting for "free gas". But with gas at $2, that's 110,000 miles worth of gas in my minivan - closer to 150,000 miles in the Camry. No way to justify it to the lovely wife.
I'm going to make a leap here and assert that someone willing to spend $1000 just to jump the line and have the newest shiny is not going to hold on to a car for 10 years. That would be practical.
Does anyone ELSE have production plans, designs, or the capability of launching the 3 before Tesla?
They don't call it the "3", but Chevy has an all-electric on the way and Nissan has been selling one for years. It's not insane to imagine them stepping up the game or changing the price to stay ahead of Tesla in the cheap electric category. I think the Tesla will be nicer, but again it is pure speculation. An electrified Prius could easily happen, and that would put Tesla's reputation for quality up against a seriously competent automaker with a long record (if recently a bit blemished) of building high-quality cars. A lot can happen in 2 years - more competition means more price pressure. Low gas prices mean more price pressure. This is not a done deal.
Not that I don't believe you, but do you have a source? I found lots of conflicting information and came to the conclusion that it doesn't really matter - most people are just throwing money at them without actually reading any kind of agreement.
Slashdot Mirror
I'm sure they didn't think of that.
Ha! I came here to post the other NYC giant datacenter: 375 Pearl St
"Only" 32 stories, but that's because each floor is 16-17 ft high to accommodate 1970s-era telephone switching equipment.
Wow, quite the straw man you built up there. Why do you need me in the conversation?
Once again you lecture me on companies learning, and yet somehow deny that the first Model 3s will be of lower quality than later Model 3s. The only way that is possible is if the learning stops.
I'm sure that they'll learn. I'm sure their products will be high-quality. But I'm also sure that the first ones off the line won't be as nice as the last ones. I'm sure someone could pull out an example of declining quality over the life of the product, but I don't think that will be the case with Tesla. I do know that they are about to do two things that they've never attempted: true volume production and massive cost reduction. There will be a learning curve.
Wow, you managed to type all that without addressing the problem that Tesla is now on their 3rd car and is still having birthing problems with it.
Birthing problems are fundamental to new product development, and Tesla is not magic. They seem to be quite good, but they still will have rough edges when they attempt truly mass production and significant cost reduction for the very first time.
Why the personal attack?
The Model 3 won't have this kind of problem because the Model X provides a source of lessons learned.
"The Model X won't have this kind of problem because the Roadster and Model S provides a source of lessons learned."
This is exactly what I'm talking about. I like Tesla - I really do. I like the cars, I like the focus of the company, and I like the customer relations. The quality seems to be at or above even Lexus levels. But the reality distortion field is strong with them. I feel like I'm trying to have conversations with otherwise rational people who have recently encountered a Jedi.
That's exactly the point, though. The people arguing with me the other day said that Tesla was special, that the initial quality of the Model 3 will be higher than a product from one of the other automakers.
Even if it's special, it's not THAT special. Buying a first-run of any product is risky - Tesla inclusive.
The fact that you have to save up to buy a car confirms that $1000 is a significantly amount of money for you. People who don't have to think about $1000, just buy a car.
Everyone has to either (a) save for a car or (b) finance one. The only other options are edge cases like gifts or raffles. Before you get into a semantic game with me, I realize that you can already have a pile of money sitting around. That's what I'm calling savings.
Apple has the highest customer satisfaction in the industry.
I quite like Apple's products, and I quite like Tesla's. At the Apple Store, some of the line people seem to have fun with it - good for them. Personally, the unhappiness that I would experience would far outweigh the happiness brought by a slight jump on the rest of the earth in possessing the newest iThing first. But there is no line for the Tesla - just the loss of use of $1000. No one is masochistic enough to like that.
Everyone who drives a Tesla loves the experience (not the turning heads).
If that's the case, and if money is no object, then why aren't these depositors simply buying a Model S? You can get it right now, get your tax credit, and bask in Tesla goodness immediately. No, these people either cannot afford or are unwilling to spend the money on a Model S.
Hmmm, those people have -$1000 right now and no car in return.
I think you have a funny definition of "cost".
They do have a nice, shiny IOU. I'm very jealous.
Your fundamental problem is that $1000 is a significantly difficult amount of money for you.
No, my problem is that I'm too old to care what people think when they see me driving a car. I'm also too old to fall for psychological marketing tricks like making people feel like they'll miss out because of an artificial sense of scarcity. Waiting 6 months to a year is not a big deal anymore.
What is this "stereotyping" crap? I'm judging people based on their actions - that's the opposite of a stereotype. You are the one pulling the stereotyping garbage with the assumption that I can't afford $1000. When you only buy a car every 10 years or so it is easy to save up to pay cash for them.
That seems untrue on the face of it. They pay $1000 for the thrill of being first around town.
There is no way to defend the fronting of $1000 for a yet-to-exist car on economic terms. I'm sorry if that in some way offends you. I understand the emotional component, but also am not afraid to point out to people that they are basically doing the same thing as the lunks that stand around at Apple stores, or who wait in line for a pair of Air Jordans. It's your money, do with it what you will.
Yeah, but not fingerprints or SS#. This release of information was worse than addresses and affiliation.
It might be good. If something like this happened in the US, it might finally wean our financial institutions off of using the stupid SS# as a universal id / security token. The whole system is setup to fail over something like this.
I like it! There might even be a cottage industry of battery salvagers/home repairers.
That assumes that I don't have access to other phones, or that the money spent in another way won't make me happier.
Well, the nice thing about prognosticating about how other people will get screwed out of their $1000 is that a mistake costs me nothing :)
The tax savings is probably false, unless you neglect the impact to the resale value. The tax credit comes pretty much right off the top at resale time. So if you were planning on running your Tesla into the ground, then yes you could realize a tax savings. Otherwise you are simply deferring the cost until trade-in.
To be fair, Tesla has nearly used up their tax credits, so it is conceivable that a few of these people will luck out and get a Tesla for the $7500 discount. At this point they could theoretically hold on to the car for a year or so as the tax credits taper off, and then resell with no impact to the used car price. I would suggest, however, that one force works against this: the continuous improvement in battery technology. The same cost reduction that allowed the Tesla 3 in the first place will continue. This will make either the batteries cheaper or the range longer in newer cars. A used car with $12,000 batteries will be worth no more than the same performing car with $10,000 batteries 3 years later. The used market does not care what the original purchase price of the car is.
Anyway, in general it is foolish to approach a car as an asset. It is a liability, and the rational economic thing to do is minimize your expenditures. I will admit that is not much fun :)
Great minds... :)
Heh, we've wandered into "win a Nobel if you figure it out" territory :)
I think that setting schools up into 1000-student-ish campuses encompassing ages 5-18 is the way to go. Make it a goal to get out of there as soon as possible: once a student gets to "AP" courses, they really need to be in more of a college setting. At that point, move to a secondary education campus or the technical education campus. Set up all of the language arts at the same time so that students can smoothly move between classes by ability. It's OK to have a 10 and a 14 year old in the same reading class. Get rid of the concept of "classes" and just move kids up by subject. Recruit kids who are ahead to help kids who are behind. Get rid of arbitrary cut-offs for public funding - if a special ed kid needs an extra few years to finish up, let him. If a kid finishes everything by 16, pay for community college courses rather than cramming too much AP-type stuff into primary education.
Give teachers incentives for efficiently moving kids up the ladder. A failure in a class becomes somewhat inexcusable if pace is not age-determined.
It would be an interesting experiment, in any case.
That is true, though I suspect that the battery cost decline which enabled the Model 3 in the first place will continue, which will further undermine the value as newer electric cars become cheaper and cheaper.
I agree that, emotionally, it is tempting to buy. The nice thing about middle age is that part of the brain is less important than it used to be :)
My motivations are not clear - I was just responding to a comment that I thought summed it up quite well: the reality distortion field is strong.
For what it's worth, I want a Leaf-style car with a smaller battery (and correspondingly cheaper). It would be perfect for my 10 mile commute. When gas goes back up, maybe I'll pick a used one up - they are kind of crappy but at $11k very tempting for "free gas". But with gas at $2, that's 110,000 miles worth of gas in my minivan - closer to 150,000 miles in the Camry. No way to justify it to the lovely wife.
I'm going to make a leap here and assert that someone willing to spend $1000 just to jump the line and have the newest shiny is not going to hold on to a car for 10 years. That would be practical.
Does anyone ELSE have production plans, designs, or the capability of launching the 3 before Tesla?
They don't call it the "3", but Chevy has an all-electric on the way and Nissan has been selling one for years. It's not insane to imagine them stepping up the game or changing the price to stay ahead of Tesla in the cheap electric category. I think the Tesla will be nicer, but again it is pure speculation. An electrified Prius could easily happen, and that would put Tesla's reputation for quality up against a seriously competent automaker with a long record (if recently a bit blemished) of building high-quality cars. A lot can happen in 2 years - more competition means more price pressure. Low gas prices mean more price pressure. This is not a done deal.
Not that I don't believe you, but do you have a source? I found lots of conflicting information and came to the conclusion that it doesn't really matter - most people are just throwing money at them without actually reading any kind of agreement.