I agree that at the top end of the range there is not much to challenge Canon or Nikon, especially Canon.
At the P&S and prosumer levels though, there is a lot of competition, especially here in Japan.
Casio, Panasonic, Sony, Kyocera, Konica, Ricoh and others are all selling P&S digital cameras, but not DSLR. They want as much of the market as they can get, and will drive the lower end of the market up. This will in turn force the Kiss/300D/Rebel-level market up. Which will force the 10D market up... Which will... I think you see what I am saying!
Canon and Nikon were able to control the level of the SLR market in the past because it just was not possible to pressure them from below. That has changed with digital though.
Yes, the 1Ds is 11MP and the quality is beyond amazing. Even my D60 when coupled with L lenses gives fantastic quality.
We will see this happen though. CMOS sensors are manufactured using essentially the same technology that is used to make RAM. Yields will increase. Costs will come down.
If this is not driven by Canon or Nikon in the high end, it will be driven by Panasonic, Sony, Casio, etc in the P&S market. As the P&S quality increases, the 10D-level DSLR quality will have to increase to justify their higher prices. As the 10D quality level goes up, the 1Ds level cameras will have to improve too.
You are right that most consumers do not need a 10+megapixel camera. But they also do not need 3GHz PCs, 200+HP cars, 50" Plasma TVs... Because the technology is going to become available, the cameras are going to advance.
When 35mm was introduced the previous formats were drastically different. It was not reasonable to use previous body/lens formats for 35mm film.
PCI is the same -- VESA local bus was a major kludge, to be polite about it. It also could not be run at speeds other than FSB, if memory serves. This was a rather large problem for the DX-50 chips! (Not DX2-50, DX50.) Many cards would not run reliably on a 50MHz bus. But I digress...
This situation is rather different. It is extremely difficult to make lens glass good enough to then be able pack 10 million+ pixels onto very small sensors and still get a good quality image. The cost of the glass would far exceed the savings of using a small sensor. This is a problem of optics that is not easy to overcome.
Beyond this, the sensors are going to get cheaper and cheaper, but the glass isn't going to drop much (if at all) in price.
Because of this it actually makes sense to have APS-to-35mm size digital sensors, and also medium format digital backs.
You are thinking in terms of today's technology and today's costs.
Think of this in terms of (for example) computer memory. As the manufacturing technology improves, yields will increase and prices will drop. We have already seen this happen -- the EOS D60 to 10D, for example. The 10D has better electronics, better body, but is far cheaper than the D60 was. (I have a D60, EOS 3, 17-40 4L, 28-70 2.8L, 70-200 2.8L + various other bits and pieces.)
There is no reason that P&S prosumer level cameras can't move to APS-size sensors. The optical zoom ratings won't be as impressive as now, but the overall image quality will increase, along with the pixel count. Lens size does not have to go up, as long as the long end of the zoom drops a bit -- say to a 35mm effective 150 or 180mm.
I agree that Canon and Nikon do not typically follow others. But in this case, if other manufacturers move to higher pixel counts on larger sensors, they will either do likewise or lose market share. (I mean at all levels -- P&S, prosumer, DSLR.) There are lots of manufacturers who want a "piece of the pie" so to speak, and the technology will be driven by many more than we had with film SLRs in the past.
The first article in this series was reasonably well laid out and the information quite good.
But this one? What is he trying to say? It almost seems as though the article is missing several pages...
And a DSLR with a whole new series of lenses, presumably on a different mount? Not likely! In such a scenario anyone who eventually upgrades from a 10D-level camera to a full professional DSLR would be stuck with replacing all lenses as well. From the user-standpoint that obviously sucks, and from the camera maker standpoint there is no "brand lock in". If you have to change all your lenses anyway, then you can easily jump brands at the same time.
What is going to happen is eventually 10D-level cameras will have full-frame 35mm sensors. Canon and Nikon might not like this idea very much, but someone else is going to do it if they don't. If Minolta/Pentax/Sigma etc move in this direction, Canon and Nikon will be forced to follow. As pixel counts increase sensor size will eventually have to follow.
When this happens, prosumer point-and-shoots will move to APS-sized sensors, and the standard point-and-shoot models will increase to something around what the prosumers have now.
I don't plan on supporting SCO in any way until the litigation is over.
You mean to say that you would EVER support SCO again?
I wouldn't support SCO in any way, shape, or form, for any reason. Ever. And yes, I am in a position where I can make that stick at work as well as at home.
That said... Turbo Linux was part of the UnitedLinux group. UnitedLinux was disbanded as SCO refused to leave the group. It seems there was no way to force theme to leave, so everyone else left instead.
(The web site is still there, but there have been no updates since early 2003... Can't imagine why that might be.......)
Gelsto is proprietary (and pricey), which makes me wonder: is there any Free software capable of exploiting the general computing power of modern video cards?
I don't personally have a problem with Gmail, and I will probably use it. Especially with encrypted messages. Hah, scan that!
That said, what you propose is not realistic.
How much of the general population reads privacy policies? And even if they were forced to read them, how many would consider all the future implications? I'd wager "not very many".
Public pressure to maintain reasonable privacy policies is important and (it seems in this case) effective.
I really fail to see what your huge issue is with this.
Look at the Japanese language:
Sexual Harassment Convenience Store Bus Stop Platform (as in train platform) Department Store Air Conditioner Car (as in "my car")
Every single one of those words (and hundreds, maybe thousands, of others) are written in Katakana and used every day as gairaigo (words of foreign origin). But every one of them has a real Japanese Kanji-based equivalent.
Japanese people speak the Japanese language and constantly mix in gairaigo.
What the fsuk is the problem if someone does this with one Japanese word in an English post?
Do you live in Japan? You never say "five man yen" when talking about prices? You never say conbini in an English sentence? You don't say "genki"? How about "I'll send it by takyubin"? Never said that? Do you really say "I'll send it by the door-to-door delivery service."? Do you say "Sorry, can't go out cause I have to study Kanji tonight." Or do you actually say "I have to study my Chinese characters."
Only an American would spell it "HUMOR". (And yes, it is correct to put the period after the quote in that case.)
Actually I do confuse English and Japanese sometimes. And French too. Does that make me cool? Doubt it. Language is simply a tool to communicate. Besides, I post on Slashdot...How can I be cool?
Since when has engrish become a racist insult? I don't like the term japlish much, but engrish has never bothered me.
Anyway, not interested in trading insults with you... If you're in Osaka I'll buy you a beer though.
(Oh, you've still missed the humour in my first message... I think you could use that beer!)
Slashdot Mirror
Hell yah!
You just posted in this thread! It's not like you can mod here now anyway...
I agree that at the top end of the range there is not much to challenge Canon or Nikon, especially Canon.
At the P&S and prosumer levels though, there is a lot of competition, especially here in Japan.
Casio, Panasonic, Sony, Kyocera, Konica, Ricoh and others are all selling P&S digital cameras, but not DSLR. They want as much of the market as they can get, and will drive the lower end of the market up. This will in turn force the Kiss/300D/Rebel-level market up. Which will force the 10D market up... Which will... I think you see what I am saying!
Canon and Nikon were able to control the level of the SLR market in the past because it just was not possible to pressure them from below. That has changed with digital though.
Yes, the 1Ds is 11MP and the quality is beyond amazing. Even my D60 when coupled with L lenses gives fantastic quality.
We will see this happen though. CMOS sensors are manufactured using essentially the same technology that is used to make RAM. Yields will increase. Costs will come down.
If this is not driven by Canon or Nikon in the high end, it will be driven by Panasonic, Sony, Casio, etc in the P&S market. As the P&S quality increases, the 10D-level DSLR quality will have to increase to justify their higher prices. As the 10D quality level goes up, the 1Ds level cameras will have to improve too.
You are right that most consumers do not need a 10+megapixel camera. But they also do not need 3GHz PCs, 200+HP cars, 50" Plasma TVs... Because the technology is going to become available, the cameras are going to advance.
My point is that the changes you mentioned were driven by need. It was not possible (and certainly not desirable) to work with what was there before.
In this case it is different. There are good reasons for staying with larger sensors, and good reasons for not moving to smaller ones.
That's a very interesting point.
When 35mm was introduced the previous formats were drastically different. It was not reasonable to use previous body/lens formats for 35mm film.
PCI is the same -- VESA local bus was a major kludge, to be polite about it. It also could not be run at speeds other than FSB, if memory serves. This was a rather large problem for the DX-50 chips! (Not DX2-50, DX50.) Many cards would not run reliably on a 50MHz bus. But I digress...
This situation is rather different. It is extremely difficult to make lens glass good enough to then be able pack 10 million+ pixels onto very small sensors and still get a good quality image. The cost of the glass would far exceed the savings of using a small sensor. This is a problem of optics that is not easy to overcome.
Beyond this, the sensors are going to get cheaper and cheaper, but the glass isn't going to drop much (if at all) in price.
Because of this it actually makes sense to have APS-to-35mm size digital sensors, and also medium format digital backs.
You are thinking in terms of today's technology and today's costs.
Think of this in terms of (for example) computer memory. As the manufacturing technology improves, yields will increase and prices will drop. We have already seen this happen -- the EOS D60 to 10D, for example. The 10D has better electronics, better body, but is far cheaper than the D60 was. (I have a D60, EOS 3, 17-40 4L, 28-70 2.8L, 70-200 2.8L + various other bits and pieces.)
There is no reason that P&S prosumer level cameras can't move to APS-size sensors. The optical zoom ratings won't be as impressive as now, but the overall image quality will increase, along with the pixel count. Lens size does not have to go up, as long as the long end of the zoom drops a bit -- say to a 35mm effective 150 or 180mm.
I agree that Canon and Nikon do not typically follow others. But in this case, if other manufacturers move to higher pixel counts on larger sensors, they will either do likewise or lose market share. (I mean at all levels -- P&S, prosumer, DSLR.) There are lots of manufacturers who want a "piece of the pie" so to speak, and the technology will be driven by many more than we had with film SLRs in the past.
The first article in this series was reasonably well laid out and the information quite good.
But this one? What is he trying to say? It almost seems as though the article is missing several pages...
And a DSLR with a whole new series of lenses, presumably on a different mount? Not likely! In such a scenario anyone who eventually upgrades from a 10D-level camera to a full professional DSLR would be stuck with replacing all lenses as well. From the user-standpoint that obviously sucks, and from the camera maker standpoint there is no "brand lock in". If you have to change all your lenses anyway, then you can easily jump brands at the same time.
What is going to happen is eventually 10D-level cameras will have full-frame 35mm sensors. Canon and Nikon might not like this idea very much, but someone else is going to do it if they don't. If Minolta/Pentax/Sigma etc move in this direction, Canon and Nikon will be forced to follow. As pixel counts increase sensor size will eventually have to follow.
When this happens, prosumer point-and-shoots will move to APS-sized sensors, and the standard point-and-shoot models will increase to something around what the prosumers have now.
Damn... That link was supposed to be for UnitedLinux, NOT TurboLinux.
Corrected link.
I don't plan on supporting SCO in any way until the litigation is over.
You mean to say that you would EVER support SCO again?
I wouldn't support SCO in any way, shape, or form, for any reason. Ever. And yes, I am in a position where I can make that stick at work as well as at home.
That said... Turbo Linux was part of the UnitedLinux group. UnitedLinux was disbanded as SCO refused to leave the group. It seems there was no way to force theme to leave, so everyone else left instead.
(The web site is still there, but there have been no updates since early 2003... Can't imagine why that might be.......)
Yes, but it doesn't let you outrun the sound waves generated by the aircraft itself...
Way noisier than said neighbour's stereo, I'm sure.
MCSE, MCSDT, Microsoft Office Expert, Well Respected VB Scripting Genius
You're, uh, new here, right?
Very sorry to hear that... :(
But I am sure the weather and overall atmosphere is a lot better there than here!!
FTTH is Fibre To The Home.
:)
I get mine in Osaka, but it is available in most urban or semi-urban centres in Japan.
And 24Mb or 40Mb ADSL is avaiable just about anywhere, even in really rural areas.
The worst-case senario is unmetered 64Kb ISDN, but I haven't been stuck at those speeds for years now.
Oh, and lots of open WAPs around too. I have three available from my desk here at work, and 4 or 5 near my apartment.
Japan's a great place for a tech-geek to live.
You poor suckers without FTTH.
:D
100Mbps Up, 100Mbps Down.
No transfer caps.
US$60/month.
No shit.
Damn, life is GOOD!
Gelsto is proprietary (and pricey), which makes me wonder: is there any Free software capable of exploiting the general computing power of modern video cards?
Gelato seems to be correct...
I wonder if gmail will detect PGP/GPG and send you ads for security and encryption-related products.
I wondered about this too... And as long as the header/footer is in place, this would be easy (and logical).
I don't personally have a problem with Gmail, and I will probably use it. Especially with encrypted messages. Hah, scan that!
That said, what you propose is not realistic.
How much of the general population reads privacy policies? And even if they were forced to read them, how many would consider all the future implications? I'd wager "not very many".
Public pressure to maintain reasonable privacy policies is important and (it seems in this case) effective.
Why is everyone so wound up about Mini ITX? Damn expensive, and if they are just to be used as server-substitutes, not needed...
Micro ATX Desktop cases are the way to go.
Cheap, small, stackable, upgradeable, easy to work on...And quiet.
I suggest these AOpen cases, along with an AOpen Micro ATX motherboard. AOpen even makes barebone versions of these.
My firewall is housed in such a system and has worked out very well. I plan to add a few more for various other purposes.
Just noticed your sig now.
You take issue with my British spelling of the word humour... Yet you use British punctuation rules for quotation followed by comma in your sig.
At least be consistent in your anal retentiveness.
I really fail to see what your huge issue is with this.
Look at the Japanese language:
Sexual Harassment
Convenience Store
Bus Stop
Platform (as in train platform)
Department Store
Air Conditioner
Car (as in "my car")
Every single one of those words (and hundreds, maybe thousands, of others) are written in Katakana and used every day as gairaigo (words of foreign origin). But every one of them has a real Japanese Kanji-based equivalent.
Japanese people speak the Japanese language and constantly mix in gairaigo.
What the fsuk is the problem if someone does this with one Japanese word in an English post?
Do you live in Japan? You never say "five man yen" when talking about prices? You never say conbini in an English sentence? You don't say "genki"? How about "I'll send it by takyubin"? Never said that? Do you really say "I'll send it by the door-to-door delivery service."? Do you say "Sorry, can't go out cause I have to study Kanji tonight." Or do you actually say "I have to study my Chinese characters."
Dude, chill out.
Only an American would spell it "HUMOR". (And yes, it is correct to put the period after the quote in that case.)
Actually I do confuse English and Japanese sometimes. And French too. Does that make me cool? Doubt it. Language is simply a tool to communicate. Besides, I post on Slashdot...How can I be cool?
Since when has engrish become a racist insult? I don't like the term japlish much, but engrish has never bothered me.
Anyway, not interested in trading insults with you... If you're in Osaka I'll buy you a beer though.
(Oh, you've still missed the humour in my first message... I think you could use that beer!)
Clearly you've lived in Japan too long... You have lost the ability to detect HUMOUR.
Or maybe it was just a bad day at the engrish school...?
Another reason to move to Japan...
/. readers could manage to get a gf here.
Even most
MAN i have seen some U-G-L-Y foreign guys with hot women in this country.
Do I really have to choose one? I speak both without too much trouble... ;)