What about your "almost a decade" experience. I know you wouldn't be starting from scratch, but you've had a couple years to get into MX and that came with some background, right?
Shanghai and Hong Kong have had a recent rivalry over which city is to be the economic center of China. The city had a GDP per capita of ¥55,153 (ca. US$ 7,116) in 2006, ranked no. 1 among all 659 Chinese cities. Hong Kong on the other hand, possessed an unparalleled GDP of ¥310,021 (ca. US$ 37,400).
Look at that CIA link again. The US comes in tenth in the world, Hong Kong by itself comes in 15th. Hong Kong is the 800lb gorrilla of the business world (sorry bill). Talk all you want about the efficiency of a totalitarian government, but do not discount the benefits of unbridled capitalism in China's overall success.
I think the difference is at which point the consoles become profitable. The 360 and PS3 are going to be leading for a while and the question is whether or not market penetration will make up for the losses. I think it's safe to assume that Microsoft will be able to survive. Once again reiterating the fact that this gen of consoles has Sony fighting it's way out of a corner.
Exactly, this is not a bad thing. Actually, being solicited by people offering you something you might want! To hell with it I want to go back to mindless viagra ads and other such meaningless tripe. Time sensitive and informative advertising be damned.
Kurzweil is an opportunistic predator, it's unfortunate people like him are around. I just hope he doesn't cause too much damage when his version of the singularity comes. You're right to challenge his positions, anyways thanks for the reply. I like it when people don't think I'm a nut-bag.:)
Nothing accelerates forever, which is the assumption you're making here. You can calculate the acceleration effects of gravity on an apple out to infinity (well technically the speed of light), but in the real world that apple eventually hits something.
Now let's forget all of that and look at your rate of change. If deaths by terrorism has tripled in the past 39 years we could confer that these deaths increase 100% every 13 years. The number of deaths for the last 13 years is 3167, in 2020 it will be 6334, in 2033 it will be 12668. 2046 it will be 25336, in 2059 it will be 50,672 for the past 13 years and I will be 80 years old well above the average age for an American male.
Secretary of Transportation Andrew H. Card Jr. says the final figures for 1992 show the lowest vehicle fatality total in 30 years at 39,500, and an all-time low based on miles driven.
The increase in auto accidents between 1992 and 2005 is 8.6%. Suggesting that the yearly auto fatalities will rise (slowly) from 43,200/year on up. Essentially, if fatal auto incidents between 2046 and 2059 are less than 50,000, you're more likely a prophet than a mathematician. Assuming we still drive something that resembles cars.
Finally, if you're using derivatives and rates of change for your investments stop, unless you're a budding economist. Your investments are far better off placed in straddled/diversified positions. Use derivatives for say the auto market in general then invest broadly in Ford, GMC, Nissan and others. For midrange investments (6mo-10years) buy both puts and calls and base your investments on retracements and corrections or invest in the money markets.
I wasn't really looking for a transhuman reference. Just a decent graph contrasting moore's law with the processing capacity of the mind. There are many in the industry that believe this level of processing power will be reached by around 2018. But, that's a different subject.
...this whole idea that transistor based computing merely needs to catch up with the brain is a red herring.
You're taking my comparison out of context, my point was that competition with the human brain is well under way. I could have just mentioned the amount of "memories" a hard-drive can store to prove the same point.
Do I believe in a singularity? Yea, sure do. Do I presume to know when it will happen, hell no. I think it's possible to have intelligent computers mainly because people have been going about understanding the human mind in the wrong way. I believe that we are finally taking a mathematical approach to our minds and that is what I think is the big new factor. Psychology and psychiatry have always been a matter of observation and chemistry. I have always believed that it was neither of these things, but the math used in the mind that made us tick. I truly think that AI will be a revolution in mathematics rather than in computing, some bastard child of calculus, statistics and decision trees. Once we reach this point I believe that the simple diversity of thought forms allowed a computer will escape us. It's not hard to fathom when you look at projects that no single man could accomplish but still are in the field of expertise for many men. This program will have insights beyond those of any man on earth, no questions.
Rules are made to be broken, that doesn't mean that they aren't worth putting in place. Unfortunately, in the long run that means there will be a long tradition of breaking the rules until someone decides to start prosecuting at which point "someone" will wind up unfairly punished.
When will more Americans die from terrorism in any given year than die on America's highways? I believe we will see that occur in our lifetime.
Terrorist Incidents > by Region Range: 01/01/1968 - 04/14/2007 North America Incidents:588 Injuries:4344 Fatalities:3568 Middle East / Persian Gulf Incidents:13788 Injuries:52063 Fatalities:25859 Global TOTAL Incidents:32904 Injuries:114327 Fatalities:49379
The U.S. Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has released preliminary projections on motor vehicle traffic crash fatalities and injuries during 2005. According to a preliminary report, 43,200 died on the nation's highways in 2005, up from 42,636 in 2004. Injuries dropped from 2.79 million in 2004 to 2.68 million in 2005, a decline of 4.1 percent.
What the hell are you talking about? If you'll look above global terrorism in the past 39 years, barely passes the number of deaths caused by cars in 2005 in the US alone. There are better sources for information than wikipedia. You're wrong, you're just wrong.
I would presume though, that in the context of a Russian political leader being disallowed from campaigning, that yes his post was completely trollish.
He writes subjectively that enslaving people has improved China's welfare. Yes it is a lie and he offered nothing to support his claims. Maybe this doesn't justify a -1 troll but we don't really have a -1 wtf? do we?
Geez, China's relative growth is not a product of totalitarianism. It's the result of a Capitalist experiment conducted by Britain concerning a territory of theirs known as Hong Kong. Hong Kong was returned to China in 1997, currently Hong Kong is still a business world mecca. Mainland China is stuck somewhere between a poverty stricken totalitarian sh*thole and something of a socialist capitalism, essentially torn between business and oldworld governance. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong#Economy
Slashdot Mirror
(sarcasm) While we're at it let's discontinue jockstraps and viagra cause she doesn't need those. (/sarcasm)
Maybe we will get to watch a monopolist sue a monopolist, might not be such a bad thing.
What about your "almost a decade" experience. I know you wouldn't be starting from scratch, but you've had a couple years to get into MX and that came with some background, right?
Hold please. Goes to lunch.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai#Economy_and_ demographics
Hong Kong GDP $ 36,500 2006 est.https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rank order/2004rank.html
Look at that CIA link again. The US comes in tenth in the world, Hong Kong by itself comes in 15th. Hong Kong is the 800lb gorrilla of the business world (sorry bill). Talk all you want about the efficiency of a totalitarian government, but do not discount the benefits of unbridled capitalism in China's overall success.
Oh, the irony, I'm replying with a link to wikipedia (grins wolfishly).
I think the difference is at which point the consoles become profitable. The 360 and PS3 are going to be leading for a while and the question is whether or not market penetration will make up for the losses. I think it's safe to assume that Microsoft will be able to survive. Once again reiterating the fact that this gen of consoles has Sony fighting it's way out of a corner.
This would be where Nintendo laughs on it's way to the bank.
No wonder he's posting anonymously. :)
Exactly, this is not a bad thing. Actually, being solicited by people offering you something you might want! To hell with it I want to go back to mindless viagra ads and other such meaningless tripe. Time sensitive and informative advertising be damned.
Sometimes people have to pick their battles. Where would O'reilly be without a ubiquitous online retailer?
Actually, in debate, I am often very pleased when my opponent relies heavily on wikipedia, it's like shooting fish in the frozen food section.
Sometimes you might use it to wipe off your monitor. You know when you're out of paper towels.
YUUUCK! This might work for movies which IMHO have very little replay value, but music is timeless, and this is disgusting.
Forgive me for not sharing your pessimism.
Kurzweil is an opportunistic predator, it's unfortunate people like him are around. I just hope he doesn't cause too much damage when his version of the singularity comes. You're right to challenge his positions, anyways thanks for the reply. I like it when people don't think I'm a nut-bag. :)
Nothing accelerates forever, which is the assumption you're making here. You can calculate the acceleration effects of gravity on an apple out to infinity (well technically the speed of light), but in the real world that apple eventually hits something.
Now let's forget all of that and look at your rate of change. If deaths by terrorism has tripled in the past 39 years we could confer that these deaths increase 100% every 13 years. The number of deaths for the last 13 years is 3167, in 2020 it will be 6334, in 2033 it will be 12668. 2046 it will be 25336, in 2059 it will be 50,672 for the past 13 years and I will be 80 years old well above the average age for an American male.
Secretary of Transportation Andrew H. Card Jr. says the final figures for 1992 show the lowest vehicle fatality total in 30 years at 39,500, and an all-time low based on miles driven.http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m3165/is _n4_v29/ai_13787851
The increase in auto accidents between 1992 and 2005 is 8.6%. Suggesting that the yearly auto fatalities will rise (slowly) from 43,200/year on up. Essentially, if fatal auto incidents between 2046 and 2059 are less than 50,000, you're more likely a prophet than a mathematician. Assuming we still drive something that resembles cars.
Finally, if you're using derivatives and rates of change for your investments stop, unless you're a budding economist. Your investments are far better off placed in straddled/diversified positions. Use derivatives for say the auto market in general then invest broadly in Ford, GMC, Nissan and others. For midrange investments (6mo-10years) buy both puts and calls and base your investments on retracements and corrections or invest in the money markets.
I wasn't really looking for a transhuman reference. Just a decent graph contrasting moore's law with the processing capacity of the mind. There are many in the industry that believe this level of processing power will be reached by around 2018. But, that's a different subject.
...this whole idea that transistor based computing merely needs to catch up with the brain is a red herring.You're taking my comparison out of context, my point was that competition with the human brain is well under way. I could have just mentioned the amount of "memories" a hard-drive can store to prove the same point.
Do I believe in a singularity? Yea, sure do. Do I presume to know when it will happen, hell no. I think it's possible to have intelligent computers mainly because people have been going about understanding the human mind in the wrong way. I believe that we are finally taking a mathematical approach to our minds and that is what I think is the big new factor. Psychology and psychiatry have always been a matter of observation and chemistry. I have always believed that it was neither of these things, but the math used in the mind that made us tick. I truly think that AI will be a revolution in mathematics rather than in computing, some bastard child of calculus, statistics and decision trees. Once we reach this point I believe that the simple diversity of thought forms allowed a computer will escape us. It's not hard to fathom when you look at projects that no single man could accomplish but still are in the field of expertise for many men. This program will have insights beyond those of any man on earth, no questions.
Rules are made to be broken, that doesn't mean that they aren't worth putting in place. Unfortunately, in the long run that means there will be a long tradition of breaking the rules until someone decides to start prosecuting at which point "someone" will wind up unfairly punished.
PWND!!11 :)
http://www.tkb.org/IncidentRegionModule.jsp
http://www.trb.org/news/blurb_detail.asp?id=6195
What the hell are you talking about? If you'll look above global terrorism in the past 39 years, barely passes the number of deaths caused by cars in 2005 in the US alone. There are better sources for information than wikipedia. You're wrong, you're just wrong.
I would presume though, that in the context of a Russian political leader being disallowed from campaigning, that yes his post was completely trollish.
He writes subjectively that enslaving people has improved China's welfare. Yes it is a lie and he offered nothing to support his claims. Maybe this doesn't justify a -1 troll but we don't really have a -1 wtf? do we?
Geez, China's relative growth is not a product of totalitarianism. It's the result of a Capitalist experiment conducted by Britain concerning a territory of theirs known as Hong Kong. Hong Kong was returned to China in 1997, currently Hong Kong is still a business world mecca. Mainland China is stuck somewhere between a poverty stricken totalitarian sh*thole and something of a socialist capitalism, essentially torn between business and oldworld governance. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong#Economy
How does it work with un-uniformed combatants?