Would look like stereo headphone cords. Could have an arbitrarily large battery in your pocket or purse. They sell them now for cell phones-- basically double the life.
Gasoline is actually about the same price adjusted for inflation. A little higher but only about 50%
1950's 20 cents per gallon would be about 2.00 a gallon today (vs the 3.29 at the pump last night).
And gasoline was much more expensive in 1980 than it was 12 years ago (it hit 1.60's in the 1980's).
The tricky bit with alternative energy is that when it succeeds, it reduces demand on older energy sources and that reduces prices of older energy sources.
Solar has been dropping as long as I've been following it. It's not there yet. For the private consumer, I think it needs to drop by 75%. At that point, it's unstoppable. A $300 panel saving you $36 of electric per year would pay off in about 8 years. And it would be a good investment (over 10% per year return on your money). Electrical utility prices have gone up slower than inflation.
We had -- over 2 dozen ways to fill out a purchase order.
We probably needed two or three.
OTH, they missed so much basic business functionality because they rushed the blueprinting stage (only 24 months- the results were comically bad).
The "De Troite" consultants sold them an incredible bill of goods. Some of the specs which they had been paid a couple hundred bucks an hour for were complete nonsense. It was clear to me that they had written junk, gotten a signoff because no one had a clue what was right or wrong, and then left with their "on time bonus".
It was dead on delivery and had to be redeveloped from scratch under brutal conditions. I still remember some pictures of the blueprinting group having a big party- all their noses were red. They were working long hours but nothing like the rest of us had to work (70+ hours a week- saturdays and some sundays. ended up working a month straight with no days off twice).
Company where I worked decided there perfectly fine AS/400 systems were not good enough and would save lots of money replacing the 20 year old system with SAP.
Hilarity ensued.
(and lots of 70 hour weeks... only 5% implemented with 15 years worth of projected savings already spent).
It's a bell curve and to some extent good judgement on when you can do another activity matters.
But everyone thinks they are in the 1% who can get away with it and even the 1% can't predict that just as they glance at the screen to confirm it's correct that the car ahead of the breaks hard.
But it's not really that hard to predict estimates where predictable and predict a reasonable time to determine if an area is predictable.
The RUP methodology is excellent for this.
1) You gather the feature set and identify the risk vs non risk portions of a project. a) New technology. b) Relying on develop of technology which doesn't even exist yet. c) Performance. 2) You work on the risky items first. You do not start on the non-risk portions until the risks are mitigated. 3) Work in a time-boxed fashion. The time box can be 3 weeks or 5 weeks but deliver a working build each release. Note which features are not on track and drop them, adjust estimates, or even cancel the project.
And there is also baselining your coders. Over time, some will consistently be over cautious, under cautious, or on target. And by a consistent amount.
Let me put it this way...
How long would it take you to develop a sorting algorithm for a screen element? How long would it take you to develop an import mechanism?
OTH, how long would it take to integrate your web site with an app using a new poorly documented library delivered last year?
I agree with the author that some things can't be estimated. But many things can.
The biggest problems I've seen are
1) Business decides the delivery date, features, and sometimes even the budget without consulting IT. 2) If a couple 70 hour weeks work to deliver in a crunch then always working 70 hours must be even better, right? 3) Business firing anyone that says a project is risky ("not drinking the koolaid"). 4) This is a funny one.. They come and say, "How long will this take" and one person says 4 weeks and the other person says 2 weeks. So they consistently give it to the person who said 2 weeks. And then it takes them 4 weeks (sometimes longer).
Unless they are giving a written contract promising to refund the full amount of your purchase while also letting you keep google glass, then this promise is worth the paper it's written on.
If they streamed to you unprotected, people could save their favorites. Why buy "silverado" (even for $11- a very low price) when you can get a digital copy for "free".
And people are like that. It doesn't have to be super hard- just a little hard and they'll behave morally.
Netflix is basically "free" at the current pricing level. It works on my smart phone, tablet, pc, and television (via roku) seamlessly (tho search is better on some platforms than others- best on the PC).
I would have to be extremely poor to go through the hassle of turning it on and off constantly and risky the fact that they might stop letting me do that for a while too.
Given the low price- why on earth wouldn't i let them pay for storage?
Netflix is doing it right. I pay a fixed fee and consume as much as I can each month-- which is maybe 80 hours a month so I'm paying about 33 cents per hour for content.
Compare that to $80 a month for XFINITY cable TV which I watch for 8 hours a month most months.
Ever since the 50's we've improved the quality of knowledge and some things held to be "common knowledge" turned out to be wrong.
Local farming cannot provide enough food for cities. Towns- sure. But Cities- no.
I think the die-back is unavoidable at this point. About 2-3 billion people past it. But the die back probably won't take us back to current levels. A billion will die and we'll still have 8-9 billion.
And I think our resources are not being focused at the right places. As others said, we could repair the sahara and some other areas on earth for large but doable sums of money. Getting into a permanent presence space would be cheaper than the recent economic crisis or the wars in the middle east.
We've blown at least 6 trillion there.
I think we are getting closer to a point where "money" doesn't mean the same thing every day. We are approaching a time of abundance but also where humans are not needed to do the work. I don't think the capitalist model will work in that environment.
Unless you are anti-life, then over time, various species will become dominant.
I'm in favor of a 3 billion human earth. I think without it we take a serious hit sometime in the next 30-50 years. Like a billion or more die very quickly. War and disease are most likely but it may be something we don't see coming.
But I'm not anti-life. I do want humans to spread as a species and to at least find out if the rest of the universe is inhabited by intelligent life or uninhabited. The more humans we have living in decent conditions with the full potential to explore their minds, the better chance we find some way to beat the speed of light barrier.
Our values are all screwed up right now. We are just fighting over the best seats on a crashing plane at this point.
My friend leaves her bathroom lights on so that part of the house won't be dark. It was giving her a large electric bill.
My bathroom light usage is probably 2 hours a day. I have a 4 100 watt bulb fixture over the sink and a 60 watt fixture over the shower (but I have a 40 watt bulb in it). I probably turn the bathroom lights on and off a half dozen times a day.
In my computer room I have a 60w LED that's on 12 hours+ per day and then a couple extra floor lamps which each hold five bulbs. I have random led bulbs in them. (I bought a lot of different types til I hit on the G7's).
Phone call distracted me. I chose the incandescents because they were instant on.
I use the CFL's because they are cheaper than having 4 1000 watt bulbs in the fixture. The mixture seems to work.
I can't remember if i have an incandescent or an LED over the shower itself. It's probably an LED since it's been there at least 3 years. That fixture is sealed against humidity but has vents in the attic I think.
There is no need to rewire a house, rebuild an electrical grid, replace fixtures for LED lights.
I agree on extra heating for cold weather. (tho you have to use extra cooling during the summer). But using radiant electric heat created by a lightbulb is inefficient compared to other heating methods.
Keep the incandescent for your porch but most of your living areas are probably over 32 degrees even when you are out of the house (to prevent plumbing from freezing).
But it doesn't have too. You don't need much clearance on the bezel to protect the screen.
And everyone I know now has a case on their phone. Which has to be much bulkier than if protection was designed in. Just like everyone I know pays to put a screen protection film on their phones too.
Slashdot Mirror
Would look like stereo headphone cords. Could have an arbitrarily large battery in your pocket or purse. They sell them now for cell phones-- basically double the life.
Gasoline is actually about the same price adjusted for inflation. A little higher but only about 50%
1950's 20 cents per gallon would be about 2.00 a gallon today (vs the 3.29 at the pump last night).
And gasoline was much more expensive in 1980 than it was 12 years ago (it hit 1.60's in the 1980's).
The tricky bit with alternative energy is that when it succeeds, it reduces demand on older energy sources and that reduces prices of older energy sources.
Solar has been dropping as long as I've been following it. It's not there yet. For the private consumer, I think it needs to drop by 75%. At that point, it's unstoppable. A $300 panel saving you $36 of electric per year would pay off in about 8 years. And it would be a good investment (over 10% per year return on your money). Electrical utility prices have gone up slower than inflation.
That seems like a tremendously high price for natural gas by that date.
Perhaps its the unit of measure.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Today: NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 4.38
Lack of color.
Lack of cheap integrated 3d scan/create device.
Of course business will go crazy when this is invented.
It has it's pluses and minuses.
We had -- over 2 dozen ways to fill out a purchase order.
We probably needed two or three.
OTH, they missed so much basic business functionality because they rushed the blueprinting stage (only 24 months- the results were comically bad).
The "De Troite" consultants sold them an incredible bill of goods. Some of the specs which they had been paid a couple hundred bucks an hour for were complete nonsense. It was clear to me that they had written junk, gotten a signoff because no one had a clue what was right or wrong, and then left with their "on time bonus".
It was dead on delivery and had to be redeveloped from scratch under brutal conditions. I still remember some pictures of the blueprinting group having a big party- all their noses were red. They were working long hours but nothing like the rest of us had to work (70+ hours a week- saturdays and some sundays. ended up working a month straight with no days off twice).
Company where I worked decided there perfectly fine AS/400 systems were not good enough and would save lots of money replacing the 20 year old system with SAP.
Hilarity ensued.
(and lots of 70 hour weeks... only 5% implemented with 15 years worth of projected savings already spent).
It's a bell curve and to some extent good judgement on when you can do another activity matters.
But everyone thinks they are in the 1% who can get away with it and even the 1% can't predict that just as they glance at the screen to confirm it's correct that the car ahead of the breaks hard.
You really can't multi-task unless it is in your muscle memory.
What you are really doing is time slicing. And even if it is in your muscle memory, it still takes a time slice- just a smaller one.
And having a passenger in the car takes another time slice too. More if they are saying something interesting or distracting.
But you CAN go to movies with friends and not get headaches and nausea which was the only reason I was passing the information along.
Your point's valid. I just wasn't focused on that.
But it's not really that hard to predict estimates where predictable and predict a reasonable time to determine if an area is predictable.
The RUP methodology is excellent for this.
1) You gather the feature set and identify the risk vs non risk portions of a project.
a) New technology.
b) Relying on develop of technology which doesn't even exist yet.
c) Performance.
2) You work on the risky items first. You do not start on the non-risk portions until the risks are mitigated.
3) Work in a time-boxed fashion. The time box can be 3 weeks or 5 weeks but deliver a working build each release. Note which features are not on track and drop them, adjust estimates, or even cancel the project.
And there is also baselining your coders. Over time, some will consistently be over cautious, under cautious, or on target. And by a consistent amount.
Let me put it this way...
How long would it take you to develop a sorting algorithm for a screen element?
How long would it take you to develop an import mechanism?
OTH, how long would it take to integrate your web site with an app using a new poorly documented library delivered last year?
I agree with the author that some things can't be estimated. But many things can.
The biggest problems I've seen are
1) Business decides the delivery date, features, and sometimes even the budget without consulting IT.
2) If a couple 70 hour weeks work to deliver in a crunch then always working 70 hours must be even better, right?
3) Business firing anyone that says a project is risky ("not drinking the koolaid").
4) This is a funny one.. They come and say, "How long will this take" and one person says 4 weeks and the other person says 2 weeks. So they consistently give it to the person who said 2 weeks. And then it takes them 4 weeks (sometimes longer).
If you keep the two pairs of the 3d glasses you can put in the same lens type in both slots and the 3d movie will be clear and not in 3d.
Short of criminal penalties (even a couple days in jail), paying any amount less than the profits is just a cost of doing business.
The fines should be "profits from the illegal activity" plus a reasonable punitive fine on top.
Also, the railing was bent towards the place where the backpack was ... around the mail box. I.e. something behind the railing blew up.
Takes quite a bit of force to bend those metal railings too.
But not so much that the mail box was blown off the ground.
Unless they are giving a written contract promising to refund the full amount of your purchase while also letting you keep google glass, then this promise is worth the paper it's written on.
They need DRM to protect DVD sales.
If they streamed to you unprotected, people could save their favorites.
Why buy "silverado" (even for $11- a very low price) when you can get a digital copy for "free".
And people are like that. It doesn't have to be super hard- just a little hard and they'll behave morally.
Netflix is basically "free" at the current pricing level. It works on my smart phone, tablet, pc, and television (via roku) seamlessly (tho search is better on some platforms than others- best on the PC).
I would have to be extremely poor to go through the hassle of turning it on and off constantly and risky the fact that they might stop letting me do that for a while too.
Given the low price- why on earth wouldn't i let them pay for storage?
Netflix is doing it right. I pay a fixed fee and consume as much as I can each month-- which is maybe 80 hours a month so I'm paying about 33 cents per hour for content.
Compare that to $80 a month for XFINITY cable TV which I watch for 8 hours a month most months.
The problem is that we don't know enough yet.
Ever since the 50's we've improved the quality of knowledge and some things held to be "common knowledge" turned out to be wrong.
Local farming cannot provide enough food for cities. Towns- sure. But Cities- no.
I think the die-back is unavoidable at this point. About 2-3 billion people past it. But the die back probably won't take us back to current levels. A billion will die and we'll still have 8-9 billion.
And I think our resources are not being focused at the right places. As others said, we could repair the sahara and some other areas on earth for large but doable sums of money.
Getting into a permanent presence space would be cheaper than the recent economic crisis or the wars in the middle east.
We've blown at least 6 trillion there.
I think we are getting closer to a point where "money" doesn't mean the same thing every day. We are approaching a time of abundance but also where humans are not needed to do the work. I don't think the capitalist model will work in that environment.
How is that different than any other species?
Unless you are anti-life, then over time, various species will become dominant.
I'm in favor of a 3 billion human earth. I think without it we take a serious hit sometime in the next 30-50 years. Like a billion or more die very quickly. War and disease are most likely but it may be something we don't see coming.
But I'm not anti-life. I do want humans to spread as a species and to at least find out if the rest of the universe is inhabited by intelligent life or uninhabited. The more humans we have living in decent conditions with the full potential to explore their minds, the better chance we find some way to beat the speed of light barrier.
Our values are all screwed up right now. We are just fighting over the best seats on a crashing plane at this point.
That would make a great movie. We could set up satellites around the inhabited planet to control the timing of our attacks!
lol.
No, 100 watt bulbs. 1000 would be pretty intense.
My friend leaves her bathroom lights on so that part of the house won't be dark.
It was giving her a large electric bill.
My bathroom light usage is probably 2 hours a day. I have a 4 100 watt bulb fixture over the sink and a 60 watt fixture over the shower (but I have a 40 watt bulb in it). I probably turn the bathroom lights on and off a half dozen times a day.
In my computer room I have a 60w LED that's on 12 hours+ per day and then a couple extra floor lamps which each hold five bulbs. I have random led bulbs in them. (I bought a lot of different types til I hit on the G7's).
Phone call distracted me. I chose the incandescents because they were instant on.
I use the CFL's because they are cheaper than having 4 1000 watt bulbs in the fixture.
The mixture seems to work.
I can't remember if i have an incandescent or an LED over the shower itself. It's probably an LED since it's been there at least 3 years. That fixture is sealed against humidity but has vents in the attic I think.
At least a couple years so far on three in 2 can lamps and an overhead fixture.
About 7 hours a day usage. Humidity only up for 30 minutes a day tho.
We were replacing incandescent bulbs more than once a year in there.
At my house, I have two cfl's and two incandescents.
There is no need to rewire a house, rebuild an electrical grid, replace fixtures for LED lights.
I agree on extra heating for cold weather. (tho you have to use extra cooling during the summer). But using radiant electric heat created by a lightbulb is inefficient compared to other heating methods.
Keep the incandescent for your porch but most of your living areas are probably over 32 degrees even when you are out of the house (to prevent plumbing from freezing).
Try a "G7" LED bulb (on Amazon).
They don't fit in small fixtures.
Good light- I think the keys are 3000k (instead of 2900k) and 900lumens (instead of 800-850 lumens).
But it doesn't have too. You don't need much clearance on the bezel to protect the screen.
And everyone I know now has a case on their phone. Which has to be much bulkier than if protection was designed in. Just like everyone I know pays to put a screen protection film on their phones too.
It could come from the factory that way.