When gas gets too expensive, people consider it when they buy their home. If they must live far away, they focus on carpooling and jobs where working from home is allowed. I was able to work from home 7 months last year one day a week and it cut my mileage by 40 miles a week (about 16% per year).
Technologies change. But it's ridiculously obvious that they keep changing chargers so they can charge $29 bucks for a $11 piece of hardware with a new plug.
Nope. This one locked it. It *required* a mobile number. I have a "we'd like your mobile" number on the new account.
The other wanted my mobile number- it would send a text to the mobile number that I would type in as a password to unlock my account. I posted on zinga and the post got over 150 responses of similar hits. It apparently happens frequently if more than oneperson uses facebook on your internet connection.
One semester we had a ridiculous calculus teacher-- our entire front row dropped after the first test.
I was working my way through school so that wasn't really an option.
I and two study buddies put in a 27 hour study session. We decided to hit all the example problems really hard-- so hard that we could see the answer and work the problem backwards.
So I walk into the next test and did really well.
But my buds had a different professor and he was lazy or decided to get cute and made the test entirely out of example problems. They finished in under 10 minutes.
That might have set off cheating algorithms but it was really just a random chance.
If it was set up from the start, there would be a class of people who would volunteer for leadership positions. They want the power that badly. They basically give up their privacy the entire time they are running for election now.
I'm amused by the sexual hypocrisy- I think the constant exposure and outing of preachers and senators has a lot to do with the shift in attitude towards gays.
Seems like half the time the moral folks line up behind someone, that person turns out to be hiding a dirty secret.
I think if you give people sexual freedom, a place to live and food, most will let you do whatever the hell else you want.
I was playing Farmville happily and suddenly Facebook said, "give us your mobile account number or you can't get back into your account".
Not a big problem- create new account that doesn't require mobile number- point friends at it, continue (well at least for now). But any progress made in Zynga games lost. So now I view Zynga games as something that can be lost arbitrarily without warning at any time.
So I quit. Took about a week and now that time is filled mostly with other equally dumb things. OTH, I am drawing again a little too.
OTOH, in new york someone was punished by a judge for defending themselves against a burglar because the judge ruled they had could have jumped out a 2nd story window.
OTOH, in texas, you can blow them away on your property.
IMHO, crime depends on 1) age (youth is more crime prone) 2) desperation (we are going to see more crime in the U.S. over the next year and in fact, I'm already seeing it anecdotally.)
If people are convinced that punishment is highly likely then they are deterred more. The punishment matters some, but part of severe sentences is deterrence. I fear the 5% chance I'll be caught and put in jail for a year.
If there is a 95% chance I'll be caught, the penalty can be proportionally smaller.
This is an issue with robotic traffic cops. They catch 100% but the fines don't drop so people get pissed off pretty quickly.
>Actually, you never specified whether you took the measurement before or after using a given fuel.
Now that's a valid point- no I didn't. All I did was refill while "the light was on" and reset the mileage meter as I always do.
>Just trying to illustrate that the low gas light and tank full nozzle switch are not accurate measurement devices. Sure. But they are not off by a gallon as you are supposing. That's not merely "inaccurate", that would be a joke. Within a few ounces I find the fuel light to be fairly accurate. On my current rental car, it comes on at 50 miles (based on the average gallons per mile) and tells me exactly how many miles until I'm empty. So it's extremely accurate on a taurus at least.
>It's like a 20 mile difference.
No, it's an actual, measured, 35 mile difference between my repeatedly observed 265 mile range and the three 300 mile events. That was an observed, hard piece of data. 100+ "weekly" events at ~265 miles (~270 if I did all kinds of hyper mileage stuff) and three 300 mile events.
>You can only expect the 3.5% reduction if the E10 mix is actually 90% the-same-gasoline-as-E0 and 10% ethanol. Right. I've said that repeatedly. Per Keith Knolls paper- 3.5% is expected. And yet, I observed an over 10% increase in mileage three times. The car returned to 265 miles after wards and between these events. The car was maintained on schedule and was fairly new.
>You should not expect super or premium to raise your mileage, Correct. But since my car DID increase in mileage, the most likely cause was super or premium over one random week when they had a tank of nearly 100% gasoline. However, once we eliminate super and premium, short of some other even LESS likely "super mystery additive they were testing", the next most likely cause is "a tank of pure gasoline without ethanol".
Say what you want to get the last word. I'm done. I'll raise this on the mythbuster's board.
Local and non tradable applies to offshored (like plumbers, electricians).
Office cleaners are already being automated. Warehouse workers, Shelf stockers, Checkout clerks are on the way.
We can't do anything about it. It's something genuinely new. Any job that is easy will be possible to put a robot in that costs about $15,000 a year to run. And robots, like computers and TV's are early in maturity and are likely to get cheaper for a while. We think "cool, I can have a robot maid for $5000" but fail to think, "and my boss can have a robot ditch digger and robot meter reader and robot lawnmower".
Not sure of a solution. Not being a doomsday type either. But it's a great challenge for the 1st world. Our currency must drop in value to reduce both offshoring and the "no brainer" value of using a $15,000 robot.
But you still didn't know the relationship between the fill level that time and the previous time. All you know is that the pump clicked off, but they were different pumps. Maybe the shutoff mechanism is higher on the nozzle on the E0 pumps, and you actually had an extra gallon or so those times.
boy... you are going to sprain something reaching so hard.
a) My car said "full". My gallons in were roughly the same (about 12.25 gallons) as every other time they low gasoline light came in.
b) Extra gallon? Seriously??? Come on man, maybe a few ounces difference, but not a gallon. These supposed errors might account for at most 3 to 5 miles difference. Not 35 miles difference. You get to the point in mileage where your mileage light "always" comes on and you notice it's not coming on... you drive an entire extra day before it comes on. It catches your attention.
So, one would expect that if you mix 10% ethanol with the fuel in the 300-mile tank, if all else is equal, you'd get about 23.5 mpg. So your mileage is 1.5 mpg lower than expectation, only a 6% difference, which is in the range of the effect of getting a car wash.
c) I would expect if I were able to get a pure tank of gas I would get over 300 miles per tank.
d) Yes, my expectation from Keith Knoll's report is that I'd lose 3.5% mileage per tank using 10% ethanol. Reality is not matching that expectation. Hell, my worst case expectation would be that I would lose 10% with ethanol but my observed loss is over 10%. Having ethanol in the tank provides worse gas mileage for my honda element than the mystery substance I'm going to presume was 100% gasoline (since super and premium do not raise my mileage).
e) I've located 26 gasoline stations in Texas that still server pure gasoline. If I get three 5 gallon cans, I could go to one of them and get gasoline. Take it back to houston, and the next time I need a fillup, put in 100% gasoline. Then see if my mileage behaves accordingly.
Amazing... they see they are pumping huge amounts of money into America, so they take steps to curtail that.
Now... about that america oil usage... if only we would take steps to stop our dependency on foreign oil... at a minimum, we've spent about three trillion dollars that we spent on the military could have gone into solar plants, superconducting wiring, and investments into low energy technologies, hell even insulation for federal buildings.
I expect with this move that gnu/linux will gain more credibility in the russian territories and so we'll see more contributions by russian programmers to open source projects in a few years (not government programmers- but general populace).
Seeing other humans socially is important. And there are prestige issues.
But subgroups of humans adapt and view the degree of successfully scamming the system as a source of prestige.
Humans will adapt to the dole if they are on it long enough.
I think we are reaching a point where productivity is high enough that many humans will not be needed to work. If you don't give them money to eat and find housing, they will get violent. In the US, as the unemployment benefits are running out, the crime rate seems to be rising (no statistics yet but 5 of my friends have reported a sharp increase in crime in their neighborhoods over the last 3 months).
While I agree with you, we also see this in the states: You get basic income, then you do side jobs for extra cash income (which you don't pay tax on).
But I think the availability of manual labor jobs will be declining (severely) over the next two decades.
Manual robotic labor currently leases for $15,000 per year. It probably eliminates jobs at a 100:1 ratio (with that 1 being the proverbial robot repairman / designer since robot construction is done by robots as well).
Robots can now pick random pieces out of a mixed bin faster than humans. They don't need lighting, air conditioning, much in the way of heating (keep it 38 degrees and they are "happy". With a decent SLA, they work 24 hours a day and never get sick.
Assuming they are built out of modules, the repair man doesn't need a lot of skills either (basically driving around-- but serious strides being made on driving lately).
I think college educated jobs only had value when 10% of the population had them and the rest didn't. So there will be a problem squaring the cost of a college degree with the income and job security it provides.
I do not note a significant difference in mileage for summer, winter, spring, or fall. It may be 260 or 270 so about 5 miles difference which falls inside of noise level.
I know ethanol is a fuel for cars set up the right way-- OTH, for cars not set up the right way, it may make things worse. Somewhere else in this discussion thread an AC said its an "open secret" that cars with fixed compression ratios do poorly on ethanol while those with turbos do better.
And I calculated the mileage at fillup after each those 300 mile tanks. I knew exactly how far I had driven-- and i knew exactly how many gallons I had just put in the car.
The mileage was about 24.5 mpg for a mixture of city and highway driving for each 300 mile tank. That's close to the theoretical top of the mileage range for pure highway driving.
I have not calculated after fillup for every 265 mile tank but the ones I did come in just below 22 mpg.
There's a difference this time. We can realistically automate most jobs that only require manual labor.
Not everyone is suited for analytical or creative jobs.
On top of that, until we normalize 1st world labor pay with india and china, it will make sense to offshore and outsource analytical and creative jobs to there.
Good reasoning. In this case, I was doing the same mixture of city driving I had been doing the prior week.
The first was at the shell station near I-10 and Voss. The second was at the same shell station a month later. The third was at the shell station at I-45 and West Road.
I previously had the same experience at the shell station near I-10 and Voss in an older element about a year before so I've had three hits there total.
I consistently get ~265 miles from fillup to the gas light coming on. I fill up quickly after that light comes on but do have a rotation of about 5 stations which I get gas from and occasional other random stations.
I don't know for a fact that the fuel was pure gasoline- but since premium doesn't have that effect, it seems like a logical conclusion. I tried premium on the logic that perhaps they had accidentally put a higher octane in.
Another person here clarified the statement. Since I gained over 10% in mileage, in my car, ethanol is worse than useless in terms of mileage. It does replace that other gas additive that was poisoning our water.
Yea, I'd like a pure gasoline station to run a formal repeated test.
Slight correction on this... it was a 2003 element (not a 2000). My first element. Green. They ruined it by putting some power steering fluid in the brake system. The 2008 was the next one. I had the 2003 element for 5 years ( source of the 2005 reference I think). Anyway. up way too late and tired.
Nothing else to add to this particular conversation.
Would be very cool if consumer reports or mythbusters would pick this up.
Gosh, thanks for pointing out we don't have enough air to survive til the vault opens on monday. Why don't you kill yourself first! The rest of us are not going to sacrifice ourselves. We think there is enough air!
So you think our boat is going over the waterfall? Well, you start rowing - we aren't going to. We'll sit back and let you row.
So there is enough water only if we go on rations? Huh. I *don't* want to go on rations. How about you just stop drinking water mr smarty pants.
---
I hope you get the point. Your point is invalid (in addition to being a cliche and possibly outright stupid head in the sand nonsense).
How about this- short of offing myself- how about we stop giving couples $5k a year tax deductions to have children? Or is that too evil for you?
--- But you miss my point- there are already sub populations in europe and the united states who are breeding at higher rates. They are resistant to the low fertility rates brought on by modern life. They'll come to dominate the population.
Slashdot Mirror
When gas gets too expensive, people consider it when they buy their home. If they must live far away, they focus on carpooling and jobs where working from home is allowed. I was able to work from home 7 months last year one day a week and it cut my mileage by 40 miles a week (about 16% per year).
Wouldn't it be subject to intentional failure?
I suppose you could manage that by saying, "only limited time off with pay for failures".
I understand the reason, but what's next?
Judges traveling with the police and instantly writing whatever warrant is needed on the spot?
We could just roll them into a judicial police force in that case... sort of like Judge Dredd?
This has only been obvious for about ... 10 years.
Technologies change. But it's ridiculously obvious that they keep changing chargers so they can charge $29 bucks for a $11 piece of hardware with a new plug.
Nope. This one locked it. It *required* a mobile number. I have a "we'd like your mobile" number on the new account.
The other wanted my mobile number- it would send a text to the mobile number that I would type in as a password to unlock my account.
I posted on zinga and the post got over 150 responses of similar hits. It apparently happens frequently if more than oneperson uses facebook on your internet connection.
Never cheated in college.
One semester we had a ridiculous calculus teacher-- our entire front row dropped after the first test.
I was working my way through school so that wasn't really an option.
I and two study buddies put in a 27 hour study session. We decided to hit all the example problems really hard-- so hard that we could see the answer and work the problem backwards.
So I walk into the next test and did really well.
But my buds had a different professor and he was lazy or decided to get cute and made the test entirely out of example problems. They finished in under 10 minutes.
That might have set off cheating algorithms but it was really just a random chance.
If it was set up from the start, there would be a class of people who would volunteer for leadership positions. They want the power that badly. They basically give up their privacy the entire time they are running for election now.
I'm amused by the sexual hypocrisy- I think the constant exposure and outing of preachers and senators has a lot to do with the shift in attitude towards gays.
Seems like half the time the moral folks line up behind someone, that person turns out to be hiding a dirty secret.
I think if you give people sexual freedom, a place to live and food, most will let you do whatever the hell else you want.
I was playing Farmville happily and suddenly Facebook said, "give us your mobile account number or you can't get back into your account".
Not a big problem- create new account that doesn't require mobile number- point friends at it, continue (well at least for now). But any progress made in Zynga games lost. So now I view Zynga games as something that can be lost arbitrarily without warning at any time.
So I quit. Took about a week and now that time is filled mostly with other equally dumb things. OTH, I am drawing again a little too.
It varies in the U.S.
OTOH, in new york someone was punished by a judge for defending themselves against a burglar because the judge ruled they had could have jumped out a 2nd story window.
OTOH, in texas, you can blow them away on your property.
IMHO, crime depends on
1) age (youth is more crime prone)
2) desperation (we are going to see more crime in the U.S. over the next year and in fact, I'm already seeing it anecdotally.)
If people are convinced that punishment is highly likely then they are deterred more. The punishment matters some, but part of severe sentences is deterrence. I fear the 5% chance I'll be caught and put in jail for a year.
If there is a 95% chance I'll be caught, the penalty can be proportionally smaller.
This is an issue with robotic traffic cops. They catch 100% but the fines don't drop so people get pissed off pretty quickly.
>Actually, you never specified whether you took the measurement before or after using a given fuel.
Now that's a valid point- no I didn't. All I did was refill while "the light was on" and reset the mileage meter as I always do.
>Just trying to illustrate that the low gas light and tank full nozzle switch are not accurate measurement devices.
Sure. But they are not off by a gallon as you are supposing. That's not merely "inaccurate", that would be a joke. Within a few ounces I find the fuel light to be fairly accurate. On my current rental car, it comes on at 50 miles (based on the average gallons per mile) and tells me exactly how many miles until I'm empty. So it's extremely accurate on a taurus at least.
>It's like a 20 mile difference.
No, it's an actual, measured, 35 mile difference between my repeatedly observed 265 mile range and the three 300 mile events.
That was an observed, hard piece of data. 100+ "weekly" events at ~265 miles (~270 if I did all kinds of hyper mileage stuff) and three 300 mile events.
>You can only expect the 3.5% reduction if the E10 mix is actually 90% the-same-gasoline-as-E0 and 10% ethanol.
Right. I've said that repeatedly. Per Keith Knolls paper- 3.5% is expected. And yet, I observed an over 10% increase in mileage three times. The car returned to 265 miles after wards and between these events. The car was maintained on schedule and was fairly new.
>You should not expect super or premium to raise your mileage,
Correct. But since my car DID increase in mileage, the most likely cause was super or premium over one random week when they had a tank of nearly 100% gasoline. However, once we eliminate super and premium, short of some other even LESS likely "super mystery additive they were testing", the next most likely cause is "a tank of pure gasoline without ethanol".
Say what you want to get the last word. I'm done. I'll raise this on the mythbuster's board.
You conflated automated and offshored.
Local and non tradable applies to offshored (like plumbers, electricians).
Office cleaners are already being automated. Warehouse workers, Shelf stockers, Checkout clerks are on the way.
We can't do anything about it. It's something genuinely new. Any job that is easy will be possible to put a robot in that costs about $15,000 a year to run. And robots, like computers and TV's are early in maturity and are likely to get cheaper for a while. We think "cool, I can have a robot maid for $5000" but fail to think, "and my boss can have a robot ditch digger and robot meter reader and robot lawnmower".
Not sure of a solution. Not being a doomsday type either. But it's a great challenge for the 1st world. Our currency must drop in value to reduce both offshoring and the "no brainer" value of using a $15,000 robot.
But you still didn't know the relationship between the fill level that time and the previous time. All you know is that the pump clicked off, but they were different pumps. Maybe the shutoff mechanism is higher on the nozzle on the E0 pumps, and you actually had an extra gallon or so those times.
boy... you are going to sprain something reaching so hard.
a) My car said "full". My gallons in were roughly the same (about 12.25 gallons) as every other time they low gasoline light came in.
b) Extra gallon? Seriously??? Come on man, maybe a few ounces difference, but not a gallon. These supposed errors might account for at most 3 to 5 miles difference. Not 35 miles difference. You get to the point in mileage where your mileage light "always" comes on and you notice it's not coming on... you drive an entire extra day before it comes on. It catches your attention.
So, one would expect that if you mix 10% ethanol with the fuel in the 300-mile tank, if all else is equal, you'd get about 23.5 mpg. So your mileage is 1.5 mpg lower than expectation, only a 6% difference, which is in the range of the effect of getting a car wash.
c) I would expect if I were able to get a pure tank of gas I would get over 300 miles per tank.
d) Yes, my expectation from Keith Knoll's report is that I'd lose 3.5% mileage per tank using 10% ethanol. Reality is not matching that expectation. Hell, my worst case expectation would be that I would lose 10% with ethanol but my observed loss is over 10%. Having ethanol in the tank provides worse gas mileage for my honda element than the mystery substance I'm going to presume was 100% gasoline (since super and premium do not raise my mileage).
e) I've located 26 gasoline stations in Texas that still server pure gasoline. If I get three 5 gallon cans, I could go to one of them and get gasoline. Take it back to houston, and the next time I need a fillup, put in 100% gasoline. Then see if my mileage behaves accordingly.
Amazing... they see they are pumping huge amounts of money into America, so they take steps to curtail that.
Now... about that america oil usage... if only we would take steps to stop our dependency on foreign oil... at a minimum, we've spent about three trillion dollars that we spent on the military could have gone into solar plants, superconducting wiring, and investments into low energy technologies, hell even insulation for federal buildings.
I expect with this move that gnu/linux will gain more credibility in the russian territories and so we'll see more contributions by russian programmers to open source projects in a few years (not government programmers- but general populace).
Most jobs are not creative jobs.
Most jobs are mindless activities.
Seeing other humans socially is important. And there are prestige issues.
But subgroups of humans adapt and view the degree of successfully scamming the system as a source of prestige.
Humans will adapt to the dole if they are on it long enough.
I think we are reaching a point where productivity is high enough that many humans will not be needed to work. If you don't give them money to eat and find housing, they will get violent. In the US, as the unemployment benefits are running out, the crime rate seems to be rising (no statistics yet but 5 of my friends have reported a sharp increase in crime in their neighborhoods over the last 3 months).
While I agree with you, we also see this in the states: You get basic income, then you do side jobs for extra cash income (which you don't pay tax on).
But I think the availability of manual labor jobs will be declining (severely) over the next two decades.
Manual robotic labor currently leases for $15,000 per year. It probably eliminates jobs at a 100:1 ratio (with that 1 being the proverbial robot repairman / designer since robot construction is done by robots as well).
Robots can now pick random pieces out of a mixed bin faster than humans. They don't need lighting, air conditioning, much in the way of heating (keep it 38 degrees and they are "happy". With a decent SLA, they work 24 hours a day and never get sick.
Assuming they are built out of modules, the repair man doesn't need a lot of skills either (basically driving around-- but serious strides being made on driving lately).
I think college educated jobs only had value when 10% of the population had them and the rest didn't. So there will be a problem squaring the cost of a college degree with the income and job security it provides.
I do not note a significant difference in mileage for summer, winter, spring, or fall. It may be 260 or 270 so about 5 miles difference which falls inside of noise level.
I know ethanol is a fuel for cars set up the right way--
OTH, for cars not set up the right way, it may make things worse. Somewhere else in this discussion thread an AC said its an "open secret" that cars with fixed compression ratios do poorly on ethanol while those with turbos do better.
And I calculated the mileage at fillup after each those 300 mile tanks. I knew exactly how far I had driven-- and i knew exactly how many gallons I had just put in the car.
The mileage was about 24.5 mpg for a mixture of city and highway driving for each 300 mile tank. That's close to the theoretical top of the mileage range for pure highway driving.
I have not calculated after fillup for every 265 mile tank but the ones I did come in just below 22 mpg.
Interesting! Would the honda element have a fixed compression ratio engine?
Seriously.
There's a difference this time. We can realistically automate most jobs that only require manual labor.
Not everyone is suited for analytical or creative jobs.
On top of that, until we normalize 1st world labor pay with india and china, it will make sense to offshore and outsource analytical and creative jobs to there.
Oh, I see that your focus is on the 3 billion figure.
Okay, I'll grant you that. It could be 2, 4, or 5 billion - it just has to be billions less than the current population.
Would you agree that the current population levels are higher than sustainable?
Why let them run up to 10 billion (heck, even give tax encouragement to have children)-- why not run it back down to 5 billion?
Good reasoning.
In this case, I was doing the same mixture of city driving I had been doing the prior week.
The first was at the shell station near I-10 and Voss.
The second was at the same shell station a month later.
The third was at the shell station at I-45 and West Road.
I previously had the same experience at the shell station near I-10 and Voss in an older element about a year before so I've had three hits there total.
I consistently get ~265 miles from fillup to the gas light coming on. I fill up quickly after that light comes on but do have a rotation of about 5 stations which I get gas from and occasional other random stations.
I don't know for a fact that the fuel was pure gasoline- but since premium doesn't have that effect, it seems like a logical conclusion.
I tried premium on the logic that perhaps they had accidentally put a higher octane in.
Another person here clarified the statement. Since I gained over 10% in mileage, in my car, ethanol is worse than useless in terms of mileage.
It does replace that other gas additive that was poisoning our water.
Yea, I'd like a pure gasoline station to run a formal repeated test.
I get your point of scientific rigor. But a 12% mileage difference is huge when repeated 3 times.
Slight correction on this... it was a 2003 element (not a 2000). My first element. Green. They ruined it by putting some power steering fluid in the brake system. The 2008 was the next one. I had the 2003 element for 5 years ( source of the 2005 reference I think). Anyway. up way too late and tired.
Nothing else to add to this particular conversation.
Would be very cool if consumer reports or mythbusters would pick this up.
what a classic, cliched and dumb argument.
---
Gosh, thanks for pointing out we don't have enough air to survive til the vault opens on monday. Why don't you kill yourself first! The rest of us are not going to sacrifice ourselves. We think there is enough air!
So you think our boat is going over the waterfall? Well, you start rowing - we aren't going to. We'll sit back and let you row.
So there is enough water only if we go on rations? Huh. I *don't* want to go on rations. How about you just stop drinking water mr smarty pants.
---
I hope you get the point. Your point is invalid (in addition to being a cliche and possibly outright stupid head in the sand nonsense).
How about this- short of offing myself- how about we stop giving couples $5k a year tax deductions to have children? Or is that too evil for you?
---
But you miss my point- there are already sub populations in europe and the united states who are breeding at higher rates. They are resistant to the low fertility rates brought on by modern life. They'll come to dominate the population.