I know right? A potential ballet dancer was dropping off a pallet of canned goods at the store last week. I thought- just a little training and he'll be dancing in tights in no time.
---
By definition, half the people are below average intelligence.
Being more honest, about 1/6 of the population is 1 standard deviation lower than normal. That's about 1/6 of the population who literally won't be able to work for less than the cost of the robot that replaces them.
Many of the new jobs require you to be close to 1 standard deviation above normal. That's about 1/6 of the population.
It's not just about intelligence- it's also about drive. And with a labor glut, compensation for labor (has been) and will be depressed. Over time- without higher taxes on those earning outsized compensation you'll see societal unrest and instability.
And often taxes in those states are extremely high on poor people in those states.
See, "Who pays... a distributional analysis".
Typical state taxes on the wealthy are 0.3% to 3% while taxes on the poor are 11% to 12.7%.
The reason is fixed fees instead of taxes.
For example, $40 to stay at the state park is almost10 hours minimum wages after taxes. But it's 5 minutes wages for a corporate lawyer.
Likewise, poor people have to spend almost all their money so they pay almost the fixed rate for sale taxes in the state on their entire income. Wealthy people avoid the tax (and don't pay the use tax so they are breaking the law). And they don't spend all their money on taxable items anyway. And they often structure themselves as a business and get products (like cell phones and cars) tax free.
But it makes for a miserable country with higher crime, riots, and increases the risk that you or your children will be kidnapped or killed. It increases the risk of civil disorder and even revolution.
When you add on top of that wealthy people who also pay lower federal income tax rates as well, then you can't pay the bill for good government. And that's taking a huge risk because corruption and rot begins to set in.
Thought it was going to take governments forever to figure out how to tax corporations on sales made within their country boundaries.
For context- this is roughly one QUARTER's worth of profits for apple.
And apple pushed their tax rate from 0.5% to 0.005% to set off this story showing us that bulls make money, bears make money... but pigs get slaughtered.
This will probably collapse apple stock as future profits being depressed wont' support as high a stock price.
Which means LOWER BONUSES for apple executives. If they can't go to jail for tax fraud, at least they can be denied making huge profits from tax fraud.
A large part of the problem is that when H1B's were instituted, their minimum salary was $60,000. Adjusted for inflation, that should be $120,000 (so $180,000 with the hidden 7.5% social security tax and other benefits).
I saw the billing rates before I retired. U.S. worker: $90 / hour. Onshore h1b: $60 / hour. Offshore worker: $30 / hour. (And have very poor english skills so you can't use them unless you have onshore h1b's).
Quality used to be master degree quality for bachelor's degree wages.
Quality has declined sharply and is now "C" average bachelor's degree wages for bachelor's degree wages.
Use of offshore labor played a huge part in Sysco's recent SAP failure ( I think it cost/wasted a cool billion dollars). Because offshore labor NEVER says "this is impossible". They always say they can do it. At a minimum, they'll say, "I'll do my best". This is their version of "are you insane? This is impossible!"
They also rotate in and out very rapidly. 6 months before moving on elsewhere. The myth is that they are hot swappable and managers love to hear that it experience with business rules and facile mastery are not needed.
Anyway.. a partial fix is to set H1B wages (not what the contracting company bills but what the h1b employee gets to take as their pay) equal to the top 10% wages. As it is the really rare talent the H1B was intended to provide is often shut out of the lottery by consulting firms fielding thousands to tens of thousands of bachelor's degree candidates.
Again... 7000 is very low mileage. I'm retired and I put 12,000 miles a year on my car.
Consumer reports and their methodology are easy to google.
Brakes are crazy cheap for EV's that have regenerative braking (which is most of them) and they lack several expensive systems that ICE cars have. Maintenance costs are at least $1000 lower for EV's.
The kicker is the battery. I'm waiting to see how long they last before I go EV.
The WF thing is interesting since WF has been unusually profitable compared to other banks for several years now. It was claimed to be better managment but now you have to wonder how deep the rot is?
Consumer reports says the average annual cost of running a used car rises to over $4000 per year by year 12 in today's dollars.
I agree electric is more expensive when gasoline is below $2 per gallon. They made sense when gasoline was $4 per gallon and likely to head up.
Ironically, the higher the percentage of electric cars, the lower the cost of oil and gasoline until the gasoline network effect collapses which is at least a couple decades away. This is because they eliminate demand for the most expensive oil and most expensive gasoline which sets the price for all the rest of oil and gasoline.
Because if europe were to come completely under russian sway we would lose most of our markets and russia would gain free access to the atlantic. in the end, it would probably result in the destruction of the u.s.
The average U.S. citizen should care because it would could easily result in our exclusion from many markets and a catastrophic depression that lasted over a decade.
I've used bose and other rands of noise cancelling headsets.
They are a pale shadow of the performance I get with a $27 full ear covering gun headset combined with inexpensive $17 earbuds. On airplanes the difference is night and day.
yes but 1/10000 passengers or less carry ammunition so it might speed things up for 9999 passengers which will speed things up for you too even tho you are delayed 30 seconds everyone else won't be too.
The european commission ruled the 0.005% tax rate was illegal because Ireland only gave it to Apple. They did not give it to other businesses. So it was unfair subsidy to a single business and anticompetitive.
I imagine that the 14.5 billion dollar tax bill is a part of why Tim Cook is getting the money out now. Not all of it, but part of it.
Governments are getting wise to the internet and shutting down these abusive situations where companies book profits or pay 100% of profits as franchise fees to other countries. Companies are cracking down on this and probably in 5-10 years if you sell $10 of product or services in a company, you will pay taxes on $10 dollars worth of gross sales.
Exactly but to be fair (which many never are) the problem is larger than reagan.
Sure cutting taxes and not cutting spending was foolish by Reagan (the president of guns AND butter!).
But, global manufacturing played a large part as our wages finally came under pressure after an incredible holiday after world war II where most of the rest of the world was destroyed. As other workers around the world at lower wages gained higher skill wages were suppressed.
The artificial part is at the high end. We need a better balanced economy because killing off lower wage workers employment kills the economy from the bottom up. Fewer TV's sold, fewer cars sold, less money available for any kind of low end luxury.
Actually for almost 80% of the population, you are wrong.
Ability to afford a new car, a new house, a college education, high quality clothing, high quality food has been falling since 1980.
The top 20% are doing fine.
Having a smart phone doesn't make up for eating poorly (lotsa cheap carbs- no nutrients), being unable to get decent housing ($160,000 even 25 miles from town try buying that on $35k a year after taxes), or decent clothing (cheap knits that shred in a few years-- if that long).
Not so true on the day of rest. Ancient china had 1 day in 5 to rest and it was changed (I think during the Han dynasty) to 1 day in 10 to rest. That was over 2000 years ago.
I mostly agree that work was seasonal (including night work under a full moon).
The more likely short term scenario (20 years) is high unemployment while products are still not free. Worse, prices on those items will be based on what the richest people able to buy them make. We do a LOT of that now (recent epi pen scandal but also disney pricing and movies). Prices are what the market will bear-- not what is a good profit.
Longer term? It could lead to a nice post capitalist society but it's likely to be very ugly getting there because we are pretty close to many cheap non-renewables becoming expensive as we use as much each year as we did a century ago and as population and living standards live consumption has the potential to rise another order of magnitude in less than a decade.
MIT non political guys estimated (pretty accurately) back in 1978 that we would run thru all the material on earth (not just easy to mine) by 2050 to 2100. So that means a sudden halt to stainless steel and lower crop yields (no cheap pesticides and no cheap fertilizers). We might finesse the crop issue with GMO and maybe robots that tend the plants constantly. But we can't finess the chromium, magnesium, molybdenum, etc. issue.
Oh and i'm not sure if you realize it but at some places using the restroom comes out of that "break" time. It was required because companies were horribly abusing workers in large numbers.
I'd add the time you are using to go to the restroom to your 10 minutes.
The biggest creepy bit for me about smart phones is that they destroy your privacy and make everyone (work, friends, relatives) able to see your schedule. And then ask questions, hey you were off line from 1pm to 3pm today.. what were you doing?
makes me want to respond..
Well dave, I was goint to be fucking my SO for two solid hours so I turned the phone off. Thanks for asking. Well dave, I had bad stomach cramps and was on the toilet shitting my guts out for two hours. Thanks for asking. Well dave, I was preparing for your surprise birthday party. Thanks for asking.
People feel they have a right to know every second of my life when I have a smart phone. And if I don't pick up on the second ring, they ask why I wasn't able to answer their last call. Even tho I never respond so I imagine everyone must do it to everyone now.
When I was 35, two decades ago, I could still actually do whatever I wanted for 3-5 hours a day and no one had a clue and didn't ask.
Slashdot Mirror
I think the free trade treaties they already signed will prevent most of that.
Any attempt to ban automation will just push the production overseas.
I know right? A potential ballet dancer was dropping off a pallet of canned goods at the store last week. I thought- just a little training and he'll be dancing in tights in no time.
---
By definition, half the people are below average intelligence.
Being more honest, about 1/6 of the population is 1 standard deviation lower than normal. That's about 1/6 of the population who literally won't be able to work for less than the cost of the robot that replaces them.
Many of the new jobs require you to be close to 1 standard deviation above normal. That's about 1/6 of the population.
It's not just about intelligence- it's also about drive. And with a labor glut, compensation for labor (has been) and will be depressed. Over time- without higher taxes on those earning outsized compensation you'll see societal unrest and instability.
Suicide rates among 45 to 65 have been rising sharply for the last decade.
You know... the horse population dropped by over 90% after automobiles and trucks were introduced?
Many luddites died homeless of exposure.
They were 100% rational. They asked for training on the new technology and were refused and tossed to the curb.
They tried to stage a revolution and that was put down by the military.
Sure-- humans as a class figure it out. But a specific generation of humans typically doesn't.
And often taxes in those states are extremely high on poor people in those states.
See, "Who pays... a distributional analysis".
Typical state taxes on the wealthy are 0.3% to 3% while taxes on the poor are 11% to 12.7%.
The reason is fixed fees instead of taxes.
For example, $40 to stay at the state park is almost10 hours minimum wages after taxes. But it's 5 minutes wages for a corporate lawyer.
Likewise, poor people have to spend almost all their money so they pay almost the fixed rate for sale taxes in the state on their entire income.
Wealthy people avoid the tax (and don't pay the use tax so they are breaking the law). And they don't spend all their money on taxable items anyway. And they often structure themselves as a business and get products (like cell phones and cars) tax free.
But it makes for a miserable country with higher crime, riots, and increases the risk that you or your children will be kidnapped or killed. It increases the risk of civil disorder and even revolution.
When you add on top of that wealthy people who also pay lower federal income tax rates as well, then you can't pay the bill for good government. And that's taking a huge risk because corruption and rot begins to set in.
Sorry, your statement was so brief it could be read either way. Like one of those pictures of faces or a vase.
Even rereading it I still see it both ways.
I take it that you meant, "looks like apple corporation will be refunding some of the extra high apple profits back to the world."?:
I apologize that I took it other than you intended. I wasn't trying to misinterpret what you said.
Apples products are already priced at the maximum price the market will bear.
Any taxes will reduce profits (and their stock prices).
Your statement would only be true if their products were priced at some price lower than the maximum the market would bear anyway.
For example- apple can't start selling iphones for $3,000 to cover taxes.
i apple raises their prices they will lose lots of sales and profits.
Thought it was going to take governments forever to figure out how to tax corporations on sales made within their country boundaries.
For context- this is roughly one QUARTER's worth of profits for apple.
And apple pushed their tax rate from 0.5% to 0.005% to set off this story showing us that bulls make money, bears make money... but pigs get slaughtered.
This will probably collapse apple stock as future profits being depressed wont' support as high a stock price.
Which means LOWER BONUSES for apple executives. If they can't go to jail for tax fraud, at least they can be denied making huge profits from tax fraud.
A large part of the problem is that when H1B's were instituted, their minimum salary was $60,000. Adjusted for inflation, that should be $120,000 (so $180,000 with the hidden 7.5% social security tax and other benefits).
I saw the billing rates before I retired.
U.S. worker: $90 / hour.
Onshore h1b: $60 / hour.
Offshore worker: $30 / hour. (And have very poor english skills so you can't use them unless you have onshore h1b's).
Quality used to be master degree quality for bachelor's degree wages.
Quality has declined sharply and is now "C" average bachelor's degree wages for bachelor's degree wages.
Use of offshore labor played a huge part in Sysco's recent SAP failure ( I think it cost/wasted a cool billion dollars).
Because offshore labor NEVER says "this is impossible". They always say they can do it. At a minimum, they'll say, "I'll do my best". This is their version of "are you insane? This is impossible!"
They also rotate in and out very rapidly. 6 months before moving on elsewhere. The myth is that they are hot swappable and managers love to hear that it experience with business rules and facile mastery are not needed.
Anyway.. a partial fix is to set H1B wages (not what the contracting company bills but what the h1b employee gets to take as their pay) equal to the top 10% wages. As it is the really rare talent the H1B was intended to provide is often shut out of the lottery by consulting firms fielding thousands to tens of thousands of bachelor's degree candidates.
You only have the freedom to do this if you live on half your salary for at least 10 years.
Yes that's all maintenance plus gasoline.
Again... 7000 is very low mileage. I'm retired and I put 12,000 miles a year on my car.
Consumer reports and their methodology are easy to google.
Brakes are crazy cheap for EV's that have regenerative braking (which is most of them) and they lack several expensive systems that ICE cars have. Maintenance costs are at least $1000 lower for EV's.
The kicker is the battery. I'm waiting to see how long they last before I go EV.
All the honest employees had already been fired.
The WF thing is interesting since WF has been unusually profitable compared to other banks for several years now. It was claimed to be better managment but now you have to wonder how deep the rot is?
Your experience is atypical.
Consumer reports says the average annual cost of running a used car rises to over $4000 per year by year 12 in today's dollars.
I agree electric is more expensive when gasoline is below $2 per gallon. They made sense when gasoline was $4 per gallon and likely to head up.
Ironically, the higher the percentage of electric cars, the lower the cost of oil and gasoline until the gasoline network effect collapses which is at least a couple decades away. This is because they eliminate demand for the most expensive oil and most expensive gasoline which sets the price for all the rest of oil and gasoline.
You are rash and ignorant.
Without Europe and russia as our allies in world war 2, we wouldn't have won.
Without Europe (because we let them be conquered) we both make the next war more likely and more likely to be lost.
Because if europe were to come completely under russian sway we would lose most of our markets and russia would gain free access to the atlantic. in the end, it would probably result in the destruction of the u.s.
The average U.S. citizen should care because it would could easily result in our exclusion from many markets and a catastrophic depression that lasted over a decade.
I've used bose and other rands of noise cancelling headsets.
They are a pale shadow of the performance I get with a $27 full ear covering gun headset combined with inexpensive $17 earbuds. On airplanes the difference is night and day.
Refighting world war 2 against russia would be much more expensive than nato dues.
Exiting nato and becoming isolationist again would lead to russias peaceful and non-peaceful expansion into europe.
yes but 1/10000 passengers or less carry ammunition so it might speed things up for 9999 passengers which will speed things up for you too even tho you are delayed 30 seconds everyone else won't be too.
The european commission ruled the 0.005% tax rate was illegal because Ireland only gave it to Apple. They did not give it to other businesses. So it was unfair subsidy to a single business and anticompetitive.
I imagine that the 14.5 billion dollar tax bill is a part of why Tim Cook is getting the money out now. Not all of it, but part of it.
Governments are getting wise to the internet and shutting down these abusive situations where companies book profits or pay 100% of profits as franchise fees to other countries. Companies are cracking down on this and probably in 5-10 years if you sell $10 of product or services in a company, you will pay taxes on $10 dollars worth of gross sales.
Exactly but to be fair (which many never are) the problem is larger than reagan.
Sure cutting taxes and not cutting spending was foolish by Reagan (the president of guns AND butter!).
But, global manufacturing played a large part as our wages finally came under pressure after an incredible holiday after world war II where most of the rest of the world was destroyed. As other workers around the world at lower wages gained higher skill wages were suppressed.
The artificial part is at the high end. We need a better balanced economy because killing off lower wage workers employment kills the economy from the bottom up. Fewer TV's sold, fewer cars sold, less money available for any kind of low end luxury.
Close! Since reagan took office (I know.. I voted for him before I realized he wasn't a fiscal conservative).
Actually for almost 80% of the population, you are wrong.
Ability to afford a new car, a new house, a college education, high quality clothing, high quality food has been falling since 1980.
The top 20% are doing fine.
Having a smart phone doesn't make up for eating poorly (lotsa cheap carbs- no nutrients), being unable to get decent housing ($160,000 even 25 miles from town try buying that on $35k a year after taxes), or decent clothing (cheap knits that shred in a few years-- if that long).
Not so true on the day of rest. Ancient china had 1 day in 5 to rest and it was changed (I think during the Han dynasty) to 1 day in 10 to rest. That was over 2000 years ago.
I mostly agree that work was seasonal (including night work under a full moon).
The more likely short term scenario (20 years) is high unemployment while products are still not free. Worse, prices on those items will be based on what the richest people able to buy them make. We do a LOT of that now (recent epi pen scandal but also disney pricing and movies). Prices are what the market will bear-- not what is a good profit.
Longer term? It could lead to a nice post capitalist society but it's likely to be very ugly getting there because we are pretty close to many cheap non-renewables becoming expensive as we use as much each year as we did a century ago and as population and living standards live consumption has the potential to rise another order of magnitude in less than a decade.
MIT non political guys estimated (pretty accurately) back in 1978 that we would run thru all the material on earth (not just easy to mine) by 2050 to 2100. So that means a sudden halt to stainless steel and lower crop yields (no cheap pesticides and no cheap fertilizers). We might finesse the crop issue with GMO and maybe robots that tend the plants constantly. But we can't finess the chromium, magnesium, molybdenum, etc. issue.
Oh and i'm not sure if you realize it but at some places using the restroom comes out of that "break" time. It was required because companies were horribly abusing workers in large numbers.
I'd add the time you are using to go to the restroom to your 10 minutes.
The biggest creepy bit for me about smart phones is that they destroy your privacy and make everyone (work, friends, relatives) able to see your schedule. And then ask questions, hey you were off line from 1pm to 3pm today.. what were you doing?
makes me want to respond..
Well dave, I was goint to be fucking my SO for two solid hours so I turned the phone off. Thanks for asking.
Well dave, I had bad stomach cramps and was on the toilet shitting my guts out for two hours. Thanks for asking.
Well dave, I was preparing for your surprise birthday party. Thanks for asking.
People feel they have a right to know every second of my life when I have a smart phone.
And if I don't pick up on the second ring, they ask why I wasn't able to answer their last call.
Even tho I never respond so I imagine everyone must do it to everyone now.
When I was 35, two decades ago, I could still actually do whatever I wanted for 3-5 hours a day and no one had a clue and didn't ask.