. . . some will mock people trying to model something 10 years out . .
I will mock people trying to model something 5 years out, and often even for fewer years than that. I've done it myself (usually for present value on various building system choices), and read reports by others doing it. I note that forecasts rely on all sorts of assumptions that are far from knowable, and parameters can often be manipulated to get the result someone wants.
THe[sic] fact that Robert Nardelli was fired [wikipedia.org] after setting huge profits and restructuring for long term growth is just one example. . . . Wall Steet didn't have patience for it and fired him because they only care about quarterly and with flash trading every millisecond of performance. Basically a few guys with clipboards with accounting degrees canned him because the share price didn't move even though sales doubled!
Your own link seems to contradict that:
During Nardelli's tenure, Home Depot stock was essentially steady while competitor Lowe's stock doubled, which along with his $240 million compensation eventually earned the ire of investors.[2] His blunt, critical and autocratic management style turned off employees and the public. Nardelli was notably criticized for cutting back on knowledgeable full-time employees with experience in the trades and replacing them with part-time help with little relevant experience.[3] This move reduced costs, but hurt customer service at a time when Lowe's was making inroads nationwide.
I have tons of reference ebooks that I only use a few chapters out of. If it's $40 for a 600 page book, I would gladly pay $10 for the 100 pages I would actually use . . .
I would like to know where you find those $40, 600 page reference books. Most of the reference books I use are more like $120 for 60 pages.
So far, everyone seems to be ignoring the most important work the energy department has been doing - securing nuke material throughout the world that could easily otherwise land on the black market. The energy dept has been very proactive on that lately, and it doesn't get much press. That even gets ignored by some of the "conservatives" who want to disband the dept of energy (and especially by those who forget which dept it was they want to get rid of)
I may just be uninformed, but, so far, I have not heard of a single case where someone started a climate model with known data from 1960, let it run for fifty simulated years, and arrived at the known climate of 2010.
Since when can a single year contain "the known climate" of that year?
Interesting link.
The graph clearly shows, however, that the historical US energy use growth has been somewhat sub-exponential, with a higher growth rate in the 1600s & 1700s and a lower growth rate in recent years. So the limits to growth may already be showing.
Your heart is in the right place, but your numbers are off. A/C C.O.P. is typically around 3, give or take. The multiplier would usually be less than 2, and in the heating season could be negative.
No, the peak rates occur during business hours, and summer peak demand almost always occurs at the peak air conditioning demand, which is typically late afternoon. (Winter peak demand can be in the early morning, when electric heat is in heaviest use.)
Commercial rates also often include time-of-day rate changes, demand charges for the maximum usage for the month (or for a trailing window of months), and seasonal changes in rates. It can get quite complicated.
To be fair, income tax per se was not ever ruled unconstitutional, the court only ruled that tax on income derived from property, like rent and dividends, was a direct tax that had to be apportioned to the states in accordance to the census. The 16th amendment did erase almost all doubt about income tax constitutionality, though.
I seem to recall that they made some changes to make the entertainment numbers look better, like adding Apple software to the division. So the numbers you cited don't directly follow X-Box anyway.
[CO2] has no ill health effects until you have enough of it around you to displace the oxygen you need.
No. If CO2 levels go up about 10 or 15 times what they are today, there would be a people feeling respiratory symptoms from it. If the levels went up about 100 to 120 times current concentrations, it would be considered an immediate threat to health and life, and if all of that added CO2 were to displace O2 in the air, the amount of oxygen per unit volume would go down only about 20%. That would be the same reduction in oxygen as going from sea level to about 6,000 or 7,000 ft elevation.
Special relativity was already attacking causality before quantum mechanics. It made even the notion of which event happened first a matter of the reference frame observed from (for at least some)
The deal has already gone through. Microsoft would not have to give up what it bought. This is a shareholder suit against Novell, not a third party suit to rescind the purchase. If successful, Novell, or possibly (though much less likely) Novell's board/executives, would have to pay shareholders for value not received.
So sorry, you introduce exactly zero improvement by deciding to use meters over inches or feet
There's your problem right there. You are are often not able to choose feet or inches, but have to deal with miles, yards, feet, inches, and binary fractions of inches all in one setting.
In SI, which is a coherent system, the unit of power is the "watt" which is defined as "one joule per second".[20] In the US customary system of measurement, which is non-coherent, the unit of power is the "horsepower" which is defined as "550 foot-pounds per second" (the pound in this context being the pound-force), similarly the gallon is not equal to a cubic yard (nor is it the cube of any length unit).
It is worse than that. I use US units at work and, for power, common terms I have to deal with often include Watts,kW, horsepower, boiler horsepower (not the same as HP), and British Thermal Units per Hour, among others. It is a pain.
BTW, a gallon is equal to the volume of a cylinder 6 inches high by 7 inches in diameter calculated using 22/7 for the value of Pi (I kid you not). Fluid ounces are derived from that definition.
Metric is particularly suited to decimal notation. Imperial units are particularly suited to fractions.
Probably said by someone who doesn't have to figure areas and lengths from multiple measurements of feet, inches, and fractions of inches, or deal with pounds force vs pounds mass.
Slashdot Mirror
No, in the US at least, performances cannot be copyrighted, only the physical recording (and the written music/words) can be.
I will mock people trying to model something 5 years out, and often even for fewer years than that. I've done it myself (usually for present value on various building system choices), and read reports by others doing it. I note that forecasts rely on all sorts of assumptions that are far from knowable, and parameters can often be manipulated to get the result someone wants.
Your own link seems to contradict that:
During Nardelli's tenure, Home Depot stock was essentially steady while competitor Lowe's stock doubled, which along with his $240 million compensation eventually earned the ire of investors.[2] His blunt, critical and autocratic management style turned off employees and the public. Nardelli was notably criticized for cutting back on knowledgeable full-time employees with experience in the trades and replacing them with part-time help with little relevant experience.[3] This move reduced costs, but hurt customer service at a time when Lowe's was making inroads nationwide.
I used to be able to sleep after drinking coffee, but now, maybe because I'm getting old, I have trouble falling asleep if I drink it after 5:00 pm.
I would like to know where you find those $40, 600 page reference books. Most of the reference books I use are more like $120 for 60 pages.
On slashdot, readers aren't expected to look up or guess who SCO is - SCO is famous around here.
So far, everyone seems to be ignoring the most important work the energy department has been doing - securing nuke material throughout the world that could easily otherwise land on the black market. The energy dept has been very proactive on that lately, and it doesn't get much press. That even gets ignored by some of the "conservatives" who want to disband the dept of energy (and especially by those who forget which dept it was they want to get rid of)
Since when can a single year contain "the known climate" of that year?
The low temperature differences and the laws of thermodynamics would think not.
Interesting link.
The graph clearly shows, however, that the historical US energy use growth has been somewhat sub-exponential, with a higher growth rate in the 1600s & 1700s and a lower growth rate in recent years. So the limits to growth may already be showing.
Your heart is in the right place, but your numbers are off. A/C C.O.P. is typically around 3, give or take. The multiplier would usually be less than 2, and in the heating season could be negative.
No, the peak rates occur during business hours, and summer peak demand almost always occurs at the peak air conditioning demand, which is typically late afternoon. (Winter peak demand can be in the early morning, when electric heat is in heaviest use.)
Commercial rates also often include time-of-day rate changes, demand charges for the maximum usage for the month (or for a trailing window of months), and seasonal changes in rates. It can get quite complicated.
To be fair, income tax per se was not ever ruled unconstitutional, the court only ruled that tax on income derived from property, like rent and dividends, was a direct tax that had to be apportioned to the states in accordance to the census. The 16th amendment did erase almost all doubt about income tax constitutionality, though.
No.
No.
I seem to recall that they made some changes to make the entertainment numbers look better, like adding Apple software to the division. So the numbers you cited don't directly follow X-Box anyway.
No. If CO2 levels go up about 10 or 15 times what they are today, there would be a people feeling respiratory symptoms from it. If the levels went up about 100 to 120 times current concentrations, it would be considered an immediate threat to health and life, and if all of that added CO2 were to displace O2 in the air, the amount of oxygen per unit volume would go down only about 20%. That would be the same reduction in oxygen as going from sea level to about 6,000 or 7,000 ft elevation.
Special relativity was already attacking causality before quantum mechanics. It made even the notion of which event happened first a matter of the reference frame observed from (for at least some)
Bullshit
The deal has already gone through. Microsoft would not have to give up what it bought. This is a shareholder suit against Novell, not a third party suit to rescind the purchase. If successful, Novell, or possibly (though much less likely) Novell's board/executives, would have to pay shareholders for value not received.
There's your problem right there. You are are often not able to choose feet or inches, but have to deal with miles, yards, feet, inches, and binary fractions of inches all in one setting.
There are 96 1/8"s in a foot
It is worse than that. I use US units at work and, for power, common terms I have to deal with often include Watts,kW, horsepower, boiler horsepower (not the same as HP), and British Thermal Units per Hour, among others. It is a pain.
BTW, a gallon is equal to the volume of a cylinder 6 inches high by 7 inches in diameter calculated using 22/7 for the value of Pi (I kid you not). Fluid ounces are derived from that definition.
Probably said by someone who doesn't have to figure areas and lengths from multiple measurements of feet, inches, and fractions of inches, or deal with pounds force vs pounds mass.
There's probably more than 1 in a 1000 Americans who have bet on horse races and therefore know what a furlong is.