"Oh it will come back. One day. Couple years perhaps?"
Yes, or tomorrow. If you don't believe in market timing (which I don't) then tomorrow is as good as couple years from now. Because the graph is pointed down over the past months you think it necessarily is going to continue to go down do you - how can it ever switch direction if it never has before? Also, if the market is coming back in the next few years like you say, how does it have anything to do with us growing broke within ten years?
"Doesn't it scare you that a single bank (and not the biggest!) required government intervention to prevent an economic disaster in the US? No one will make a credit call on the US. But you can bet...well no, I'm betting, that more people are going to look at the US' competitors for their manufacturing/currency needs. Dealing with the US is becoming too much of a pain in the ass - dollar wise, environmental and god knows what else legislation wise, anti-terrorist/money laundering law wise and "IP" wise. So when all that's left in the US is McDonald's (tm) restaurants, what happens?"
It scares me that people have so much hubris (similar to your confidence in your own market assessment) in making leveraged market bets and concentrate their assets. And it scares me that the gov't had to intervene and the moral hazard implications. But it looks like they "prevent[ed] an economic disaster in the [world]?" (meaning we aren't in a situation of economic "disaster")
As far as the US being down to McDonald's as it's only industry, I think US market cap probably paints the US prospects and discounted cash flows as being a tiny bit better than.
What else, I.P.? You mean our laws our *too* protective of corporations right now? Not following you on that one. "Weak" dollar - US manufactures don't seem to be complaining. Environment? So your going to send capital to tiny emerging markets like china and brazil so you can trash the environment easier?
I certainly see a billion problems with the US, but I certainly am not arrogant enough to think i'm the only one that does.
You know you can buy securities that will appreciate if the S&P 500 goes down. I'd love it if all the doomsayers would put their money where the mouths are.
Do you think that you know something the market doesn't? If the market should be priced lower based on all available information today (public and private-most likely) why isn't it?
Also, I think you'll find if you look at global market indices they've all been on the decline since last fall - it's a global economy you know.
Finally, what do you mean by "broke?" That the US isn't t going to be able to service its debt? Certainly we have more assets than debt, although much of them are illiquid. But I think you'll find that historically low tax rates can be raised if adjustments need made.
Finally if our central bank knows when it can't let a bank collapse (Bear Sterns,) then the rest of the world knows that it can't make a credit call on US debt without destroying their own capital markets.
I stayed in Germany for a while and had the exact experience you had in suburban paris. They really do have so much going for them over there.
I guess the reason we have such sprawl is at least partially attributable to the cold war and the idea that you needed to spread people out away from population centers.
The "Safety cage" or "Safety cell" construction with front and rear crumple zones was first developed by Mercedes-Benz in 1951.[25]
Anti-lock brakes (ABS), traction control and airbags in the European market, were Mercedes-Benz innovations. These technologies were introduced in 1978, 1986 and 1980 respectively.
In September 2003, Mercedes-Benz introduced the world's first 7-speed automatic transmission called '7G-Tronic'.
Mercedes-Benz was the first to introduce pre-tensioners to seat belts on the 1981 S-Class. In the event of a crash, a pre-tensioner will tighten the belt instantaneously, preventing the passenger from jerking forward in a crash.
Stability control, brake assist (Press Release) , and many other types of safety equipment were all developed, tested, and implemented into passenger cars--first--by Mercedes-Benz. Mercedes-Benz has not made a large fuss about its innovations and has even licensed them for use by competitors--in the name of improving automobile and passenger safety. Mercedes M156 engine Mercedes M156 engine
The most powerful naturally aspirated eight cylinder engine in the world is the Mercedes-AMG, 6208 cc M156 V8 engine. The V8 engine is badged '63 AMG' and replaced the '55 AMG' M113 engine in most models. The M156 engine produces up to 525 bhp (391 kW), and although some models using this engine do have this output (such as the S63 and CL63 AMGs) specific output varies slightly across other models in the range.[26]
The (W211) E320 CDI which has a (VTG) turbocharged, 3.0L V6 common rail diesel engine, set three world endurance records. It covered 100,000 miles (1.6×105 km) in a record time with an average speed of 224.823 km/h (140 mph). Three identical cars did the endurance run (one set above record) and the other two cars set world records for time taken to cover 100,000 km and 50,000 miles (80,000 km) respectively. After all three cars had completed the run their combined distance was 300,000 miles (4.8×105 km) (all records were FIA approved).
Mercedes-Benz's pioneered a system called Pre-Safe which uses radar to detect an imminent crash and prepares the car's safety systems to respond optimally. It also calculates the optimal breaking force required to avoid an accident in emergency situations and makes it immediately available for when the driver depresses the brake pedal. Occupants are also prepared by tightening the seatbelt, closing the sunroof and windows, and moving the seats into the optimal position.
Mercedes Benz is developing a fatigue-detection system that warns the driver when they are displaying signs of micro-sleep (when the eyes stay closed for slightly longer than a natural blinking action). The system will use a variety of data including the individual driving style, the duration of the journey, the time of day and the current traffic situation. Fatigue mostly sets in gradually.[27]
The fastest (production) automatic road car in the world is the Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren at 334 km/h (208 mph). The car was co-developed by DaimlerChrysler and McLaren Cars. The fastest street-legal saloon car in the world is the Mercedes-Benz Brabus (tuned) W211 'E V12' - based on the E-Class saloon.
professor is wrong. OK, you don't want an appeal to authority? You're going to probably at least have to refute the book with more than a bad analogy.
Interestingly enough, my non-for-profit health insurance provider "Kaiser Permanente" actually is willing to have a lower total premium + max out of pocket cost for a high deductible HSA health plan than for the HMO-type co-pay plan. I infer from that that they believe some amount of "consumer choice" will lower their costs beyond the foregone premiums.
Sorry, even world wide, it's much more complicated than socialized health care fixes all - which doesn't mean that I'm even necessarily against socialized health care or more specifically I think "single payer" health insurance has potential place.
Rather than everybody either having very high quality health care or no health care as we do in the US, we need a tier that people can buy that's the standard of Health Canada or the british National Health.
Whether that's paid for directly by citizens or via the gov't it should be the same result.
Even if there were an advantage to vinyl's sound, since I have limited funds, I wouldn't pay $25 for something on a vinyl album when I could but the same music on emusic for $3-4/album or $9.99 on CD (if it's not available on emusic.)
I like stuff, but I like music more than stuff. I do think it can be worth spending 1 or 2 grand on a hifi, (but even that's 75-300 worth of albums, so you have to weigh these things carefully)
that no matter how brilliant my comments are they are rarely modded up. I am a partner at a CPA firm, an investment advisor with a significant amount of wealth under management, I am the partner over IT at the firm I work at, and my number one hobby happens to be listening to music. I usually legally obtain about 50 records a year in a variety of genres, but primarily the so called "indie" genre (via WFMU) - I have some unique perspectives there relative to people on slashdot. I am also a theist. I make a pretty decent income.
All of these unique experiences seem to bump up against some kind of groupthink expertise that I only participate in for the same reason I bite down on sore teeth.
I am glad you've found a forum where generally people agree with you.
The more DVDs you buy now, the more movies you'll end up buying for a second time when you do end up switching to HD. I think that's why paramount was happy to take cash to do the HD DVD exclusivity thing. If they really were interested in selling HD movies todays, they would have been better off getting in the Blu ray camp.
I guarantee that once people have an HD TV and some sort of HD player, they will be disappointed by the quality of their DVDs when compared with what content they do enjoy in HD. They will repurchase movies and tv shows for a second time to enjoy the upgrade in quality and the studios will take your cash all over again.
I highly doubt radiohead are doing this try to squeeze margins and capture market value. They could do it, they did do it, it was a lot of fun, and it's a great album. They leaked their own album.
Early next year they are releasing it via independent record labels world wide (just like Thom did with his solo outing) so people who are not rich enough to have computers, ipods, and internet accounts can enjoy radiohead's new music too.
It isn't the 'end of labels' and if you want some recommendations for some great labels I can give them to you.
I like the subscription model. I easily go through 4 new albums worth of music a month, and thus at 4x10 on your beloved iTMS I would be paying $40/month. With a subscription model I could enjoy the 10+ new albums per month that I would *like* to listen to at a fixed fee that would be lower than if I bought them all. I'd keep the subscription in perpetuity just as I seem to continue to buy new music and pay for cable TV in perpetuity.
The problem is the selection is just too poor (the selection is poor on your beloved iTMS too) and the quality of the downloads on Rhapsody or Napster or whatever is audibly poor to me. Finally, since none of the music services are very compatible or supported I don't like how i'm limited by device etc.
So I stick with emusic and avoid buying anything (almost - sometimes I have to buy the odd CD still) that isn't on there.
they've made an absolute fortune already, and the sense I get from every interview they've done and song they've written in the past 10 years is that they are artists who are not interested particuarly in financial success.
*If Radiohead was making a significant amount of money on album sales with their old label, do you think they would have changed to this new method? Most likely not.*
Slashdot Mirror
"Oh it will come back. One day. Couple years perhaps?"
Yes, or tomorrow. If you don't believe in market timing (which I don't) then tomorrow is as good as couple years from now. Because the graph is pointed down over the past months you think it necessarily is going to continue to go down do you - how can it ever switch direction if it never has before? Also, if the market is coming back in the next few years like you say, how does it have anything to do with us growing broke within ten years?
"Doesn't it scare you that a single bank (and not the biggest!) required government intervention to prevent an economic disaster in the US? No one will make a credit call on the US. But you can bet...well no, I'm betting, that more people are going to look at the US' competitors for their manufacturing/currency needs. Dealing with the US is becoming too much of a pain in the ass - dollar wise, environmental and god knows what else legislation wise, anti-terrorist/money laundering law wise and "IP" wise. So when all that's left in the US is McDonald's (tm) restaurants, what happens?"
It scares me that people have so much hubris (similar to your confidence in your own market assessment) in making leveraged market bets and concentrate their assets. And it scares me that the gov't had to intervene and the moral hazard implications. But it looks like they "prevent[ed] an economic disaster in the [world]?" (meaning we aren't in a situation of economic "disaster")
As far as the US being down to McDonald's as it's only industry, I think US market cap probably paints the US prospects and discounted cash flows as being a tiny bit better than.
What else, I.P.? You mean our laws our *too* protective of corporations right now? Not following you on that one. "Weak" dollar - US manufactures don't seem to be complaining. Environment? So your going to send capital to tiny emerging markets like china and brazil so you can trash the environment easier?
I certainly see a billion problems with the US, but I certainly am not arrogant enough to think i'm the only one that does.
You know you can buy securities that will appreciate if the S&P 500 goes down. I'd love it if all the doomsayers would put their money where the mouths are.
Do you think that you know something the market doesn't? If the market should be priced lower based on all available information today (public and private-most likely) why isn't it?
Also, I think you'll find if you look at global market indices they've all been on the decline since last fall - it's a global economy you know.
Finally, what do you mean by "broke?" That the US isn't t going to be able to service its debt? Certainly we have more assets than debt, although much of them are illiquid. But I think you'll find that historically low tax rates can be raised if adjustments need made.
Finally if our central bank knows when it can't let a bank collapse (Bear Sterns,) then the rest of the world knows that it can't make a credit call on US debt without destroying their own capital markets.
JP
I stayed in Germany for a while and had the exact experience you had in suburban paris. They really do have so much going for them over there.
I guess the reason we have such sprawl is at least partially attributable to the cold war and the idea that you needed to spread people out away from population centers.
...a green push it certainly within their capability, I believe.
from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes-Benz#Innovations
Innovations
The "Safety cage" or "Safety cell" construction with front and rear crumple zones was first developed by Mercedes-Benz in 1951.[25]
Anti-lock brakes (ABS), traction control and airbags in the European market, were Mercedes-Benz innovations. These technologies were introduced in 1978, 1986 and 1980 respectively.
In September 2003, Mercedes-Benz introduced the world's first 7-speed automatic transmission called '7G-Tronic'.
Mercedes-Benz was the first to introduce pre-tensioners to seat belts on the 1981 S-Class. In the event of a crash, a pre-tensioner will tighten the belt instantaneously, preventing the passenger from jerking forward in a crash.
Stability control, brake assist (Press Release) , and many other types of safety equipment were all developed, tested, and implemented into passenger cars--first--by Mercedes-Benz. Mercedes-Benz has not made a large fuss about its innovations and has even licensed them for use by competitors--in the name of improving automobile and passenger safety.
Mercedes M156 engine
Mercedes M156 engine
The most powerful naturally aspirated eight cylinder engine in the world is the Mercedes-AMG, 6208 cc M156 V8 engine. The V8 engine is badged '63 AMG' and replaced the '55 AMG' M113 engine in most models. The M156 engine produces up to 525 bhp (391 kW), and although some models using this engine do have this output (such as the S63 and CL63 AMGs) specific output varies slightly across other models in the range.[26]
The (W211) E320 CDI which has a (VTG) turbocharged, 3.0L V6 common rail diesel engine, set three world endurance records. It covered 100,000 miles (1.6×105 km) in a record time with an average speed of 224.823 km/h (140 mph). Three identical cars did the endurance run (one set above record) and the other two cars set world records for time taken to cover 100,000 km and 50,000 miles (80,000 km) respectively. After all three cars had completed the run their combined distance was 300,000 miles (4.8×105 km) (all records were FIA approved).
Mercedes-Benz's pioneered a system called Pre-Safe which uses radar to detect an imminent crash and prepares the car's safety systems to respond optimally. It also calculates the optimal breaking force required to avoid an accident in emergency situations and makes it immediately available for when the driver depresses the brake pedal. Occupants are also prepared by tightening the seatbelt, closing the sunroof and windows, and moving the seats into the optimal position.
Mercedes Benz is developing a fatigue-detection system that warns the driver when they are displaying signs of micro-sleep (when the eyes stay closed for slightly longer than a natural blinking action). The system will use a variety of data including the individual driving style, the duration of the journey, the time of day and the current traffic situation. Fatigue mostly sets in gradually.[27]
The fastest (production) automatic road car in the world is the Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren at 334 km/h (208 mph). The car was co-developed by DaimlerChrysler and McLaren Cars. The fastest street-legal saloon car in the world is the Mercedes-Benz Brabus (tuned) W211 'E V12' - based on the E-Class saloon.
where does blackberry fit into all of this? I like mine I don't see why blackberry isn't going to continue to be competitive.
...rejected you.
I hate how cell phone companies bury the fact that you need ongoing service buried.
professor is wrong. OK, you don't want an appeal to authority? You're going to probably at least have to refute the book with more than a bad analogy.
Interestingly enough, my non-for-profit health insurance provider "Kaiser Permanente" actually is willing to have a lower total premium + max out of pocket cost for a high deductible HSA health plan than for the HMO-type co-pay plan. I infer from that that they believe some amount of "consumer choice" will lower their costs beyond the foregone premiums.
Sorry, even world wide, it's much more complicated than socialized health care fixes all - which doesn't mean that I'm even necessarily against socialized health care or more specifically I think "single payer" health insurance has potential place.
read
Who Killed HealthCare?: America's $2 Trillion Medical Problem - and the Consumer-Driven Cure (Hardcover) Regina Herzlinger
http://www.amazon.com/Who-Killed-HealthCare-Americas-Consumer-Driven/dp/0071487808/ref=pd_bbs_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1200766820&sr=1-1
Rather than everybody either having very high quality health care or no health care as we do in the US, we need a tier that people can buy that's the standard of Health Canada or the british National Health.
Whether that's paid for directly by citizens or via the gov't it should be the same result.
Are you finding a lot of good music there?
JP
Even if there were an advantage to vinyl's sound, since I have limited funds, I wouldn't pay $25 for something on a vinyl album when I could but the same music on emusic for $3-4/album or $9.99 on CD (if it's not available on emusic.)
I like stuff, but I like music more than stuff. I do think it can be worth spending 1 or 2 grand on a hifi, (but even that's 75-300 worth of albums, so you have to weigh these things carefully)
JP
that no matter how brilliant my comments are they are rarely modded up. I am a partner at a CPA firm, an investment advisor with a significant amount of wealth under management, I am the partner over IT at the firm I work at, and my number one hobby happens to be listening to music. I usually legally obtain about 50 records a year in a variety of genres, but primarily the so called "indie" genre (via WFMU) - I have some unique perspectives there relative to people on slashdot. I am also a theist. I make a pretty decent income.
All of these unique experiences seem to bump up against some kind of groupthink expertise that I only participate in for the same reason I bite down on sore teeth.
I am glad you've found a forum where generally people agree with you.
...I would do that.
OJ, ISP, whatever. It's what makes a free society work!
...and you get the score of 5.
I guess people only want to give mod points when they agree with what is being written not necessarily if it offers a unique perspective.
with ISP you've specifically agreed you wont do that. Get some integrity!
fyi
The more DVDs you buy now, the more movies you'll end up buying for a second time when you do end up switching to HD. I think that's why paramount was happy to take cash to do the HD DVD exclusivity thing. If they really were interested in selling HD movies todays, they would have been better off getting in the Blu ray camp.
I guarantee that once people have an HD TV and some sort of HD player, they will be disappointed by the quality of their DVDs when compared with what content they do enjoy in HD. They will repurchase movies and tv shows for a second time to enjoy the upgrade in quality and the studios will take your cash all over again.
JP
I highly doubt radiohead are doing this try to squeeze margins and capture market value. They could do it, they did do it, it was a lot of fun, and it's a great album. They leaked their own album.
Early next year they are releasing it via independent record labels world wide (just like Thom did with his solo outing) so people who are not rich enough to have computers, ipods, and internet accounts can enjoy radiohead's new music too.
It isn't the 'end of labels' and if you want some recommendations for some great labels I can give them to you.
I like the subscription model. I easily go through 4 new albums worth of music a month, and thus at 4x10 on your beloved iTMS I would be paying $40/month. With a subscription model I could enjoy the 10+ new albums per month that I would *like* to listen to at a fixed fee that would be lower than if I bought them all. I'd keep the subscription in perpetuity just as I seem to continue to buy new music and pay for cable TV in perpetuity.
The problem is the selection is just too poor (the selection is poor on your beloved iTMS too) and the quality of the downloads on Rhapsody or Napster or whatever is audibly poor to me. Finally, since none of the music services are very compatible or supported I don't like how i'm limited by device etc.
So I stick with emusic and avoid buying anything (almost - sometimes I have to buy the odd CD still) that isn't on there.
Who already have thing pretty good anyway
they've made an absolute fortune already, and the sense I get from every interview they've done and song they've written in the past 10 years is that they are artists who are not interested particuarly in financial success.
they're a little overhyped in the mainstream press, but they really are quite good.
If you put in 0.0 there was no credit card fee. I paid 8USD because I think it's an honor system kind of thing.
*If Radiohead was making a significant amount of money on album sales with their old label, do you think they would have changed to this new method? Most likely not.*
You obviously don't know Radiohead, do you.