Yes, ancillary prices are indeed hundred or even thousand times normal, but such pricing lasts a few minutes. Most of the time the plants idle or produce some low amount of powers. The average price these plants get over the entire period is not orders of magnitude higher than base load plants. 20 to 30% more that is all. The key stat here is that the battery packed saved 40 million dollars in one year.
Battery pack prices are dropping, 10% per year. In seven years it will cost half as much. More and more peaker plants will be replaced by battery packs. Already the CA utility has decided to replace three peaker plants with battery packs. A 300 MW for four hours pack, A 175 MW for 4 hours pack, A 50 MW for 4 hours pack and a 10 MW for 4 hours pack. The smaller ones are experimental technologies. (The biggest contract is not snagged by Tesla. Tesla got the next one.)
So, yes, the battery technology tipping point has already been reached. Battery packs market share in revenue is not much. But its market share in denying profits to fossil fuels is very high. Case in point: Tesla took the bite out of the premium car market. Market share in units sold is much smaller than Tesla's market share in revenue, and that is smaller than its market share in profits. Battery packs will slowly take over places like diesels in underground mines, tunnels, premium cars, peaker plants etc. Then as price drops it will take over more and more.
The whole company is a bet on the Moore's law for batteries curve. Battery pack price will halve every seven years. It was around 250$/kWh back when the Roadster debuted. And it is around 125 $/kWh seven years later.
Every sector will see fundamental changes. 40% of the cost of tunneling is the HVAC system designed to remove diesel fumes from confined spaces. Replace diesel earth movers with battery powered ones, and you get a 40% cost savings. The Boring company cost savings is expected to be 40%. Coincidence?
They should probably extend this further. How about having a picture of a bookshelf shown on the desktop and a filing cabinet and a helpful assistant, with a friendly name like Bob, to assist you?
Wait, wait, I got a wonderful new idea. How about, get this, its gonna knock you over, a whimsical side kick to Bob? Some sort of cartoon character that is animated, lets call that Clippy!
Its gonna take the world by storm. Yes siree Bob!, no not you Bob, didn't call you. Shh. clippy. shh.. shut up. get lost clippy.
My browser experience has gone down seriously with auto playing videos, videos that relocate themselves to thwart scrolling past them, annoying animations that follow you around, nagware asking for permission to push notifications, sites begging to turn of blocker, sites graying out payload and asking for registration....
That little pop-up from European regulations saying "this site uses cookies" is not even a flea bite compared to what the ad-networks do to the browsing experience.
When you copy and paste you lose anonymity, my friend. You can do better than this. My electricity is 6 cents per kWh generation charge and 6 cents delivery charge. 200 amp service. Westpenn power.
So, if you can do something else during the oil change, then you dont count that time.
But if I take a food / restroom break during my supercharging I don't get to discount that time.
When I had my Prius I would drop it off at the dealer, and they have a shuttle that takes me to work. Evening they come to pick me up. It's pricey, 50$ for oil change. But my time is worth that. Still it is a pain, and I am glad I don't have to do that anymore.
We use the supercharger only for long distance trips. I save 10 minutes a week not going to the gas station. I save one hour per oil change, about 3 a year. Works out to some 12 hours saved per year. Typically a 500 mile one way trip will have one additional hour due to supercharging compared to gas car, once you include bathroom breaks and food breaks. That gives me 500 mile a day drives, 12 per year
Yes, there are people who drive 800 miles without breaks. BEV is not suitable for such people. But for the vast majority of the normal people, 80 cents a gallon gas is the sweetener. If there is price parity between ICEV and BEV, the market will swing to BEV in a heartbeat.
That tipping point is two years away. Three at most.
USA has one of the highest home ownership rates in the world.
A home is a high illiquid asset, very difficult to sell quickly. For majority of Americans home equity is the single largest component of their net worth. It is not easy to move looking for a job in a new place with that millstone tied to your neck.
I moved half way across the world seeking better life/job/career. My daughter would not look for a job across the town. I ran the rat race, she would not. She says, "the problem in running the rat race is, even if you win you are still a rat."
Tesla charges at the rate of 44 miles per hour at home.
Tesla supercharges at the rate of 480 miles per hour (when the battery is low). Starting on an empty battery, supercharging is 8 miles min for 15 min, then 6 miles per min for the next 10, 4 miles per min for the next 20, 2 miles per min rest of the way.
Why do you think there are going to be outlets on the edges of lawns 50 feet away? Outlets will be in the garages and on the drive way. If will not be on the ground. Either on the walls, or may be on a short post.
Have you seen what some folks do for their holiday lights? They casually run extension cords all over the lawn, without proper shielding or grounding in the snow and rain...
Weekly gas fillings 10 minutes a week, (9 hours a year) changing oil and filter: one hour every four months, 3 hours a year... These savings are not given their due credit when people obsess about 45 minute supercharge penalty on long distance driving.
Battery prices are falling. It looks like the battery + motor + charger cost is going to be equal to ICE+transmission+emission control+gas tank soon. There is no budget left to squeeze in an additional electric motor and another battery.
Price parity between ICEV and BEV is on hand, withing 2 years. You will have a wide selection of cars, all shapes and sizes and prices, to your taste, same price gas or battery, take your pick. You might be disappointed by today's selection of BEV. It will change soon, and you will really really like a pure electric drive train. Handling and acceleration is amazing.
. My problem is... . Stopping with a carload of boys to charge for 2 hours along the way is... not going to sell cars.
You are correct. It is your problem.
You missed a crucial word, let me fix it for you: Stopping with a carload of boys to charge for 2 hours along the way is... not going to sell cars to me
There are plenty of people who can use BEVs that are made today. Lot more will buy cheaper ones in the coming years. Someday, it might even include you.
True, and BEVs are getting there. BEVs will take over the world without any incentives. It will be sooner with incentives. In my opinion, it is a good thing and the government should expedite the transition with as much help as possible. I know you would disagree. You vote your way, I vote mine.
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Battery pack prices are dropping, 10% per year. In seven years it will cost half as much. More and more peaker plants will be replaced by battery packs. Already the CA utility has decided to replace three peaker plants with battery packs. A 300 MW for four hours pack, A 175 MW for 4 hours pack, A 50 MW for 4 hours pack and a 10 MW for 4 hours pack. The smaller ones are experimental technologies. (The biggest contract is not snagged by Tesla. Tesla got the next one.)
So, yes, the battery technology tipping point has already been reached. Battery packs market share in revenue is not much. But its market share in denying profits to fossil fuels is very high. Case in point: Tesla took the bite out of the premium car market. Market share in units sold is much smaller than Tesla's market share in revenue, and that is smaller than its market share in profits. Battery packs will slowly take over places like diesels in underground mines, tunnels, premium cars, peaker plants etc. Then as price drops it will take over more and more.
Dont bring facts and information. Everyone knows facts have a liberal bias. Further it makes it difficult to paint you a kool-aid drinking fanboi.
Every sector will see fundamental changes. 40% of the cost of tunneling is the HVAC system designed to remove diesel fumes from confined spaces. Replace diesel earth movers with battery powered ones, and you get a 40% cost savings. The Boring company cost savings is expected to be 40%. Coincidence?
Wait, wait, I got a wonderful new idea. How about, get this, its gonna knock you over, a whimsical side kick to Bob? Some sort of cartoon character that is animated, lets call that Clippy!
Its gonna take the world by storm. Yes siree Bob!, no not you Bob, didn't call you. Shh. clippy. shh.. shut up. get lost clippy.
OMG! what an innovative idea! Next you are going to say they have this new fangled thing called Scrum and they sprint, and there are user proxies, ....
That little pop-up from European regulations saying "this site uses cookies" is not even a flea bite compared to what the ad-networks do to the browsing experience.
They lost their store of bear repellant spray. SEC would be investigating whether this constitutes market manipulation.
Current West Penn Power rate: 6.08 per KWh
This is the generation charge. There is a 6 cent / kWh delivery and other charges from the utility.
When you copy and paste you lose anonymity, my friend. You can do better than this. My electricity is 6 cents per kWh generation charge and 6 cents delivery charge. 200 amp service. Westpenn power.
What? 90% of the cars are parked overnight in homes with garages. Are you thinking of parking garages that charge by the hour?
But if I take a food / restroom break during my supercharging I don't get to discount that time.
When I had my Prius I would drop it off at the dealer, and they have a shuttle that takes me to work. Evening they come to pick me up. It's pricey, 50$ for oil change. But my time is worth that. Still it is a pain, and I am glad I don't have to do that anymore.
Yes, there are people who drive 800 miles without breaks. BEV is not suitable for such people. But for the vast majority of the normal people, 80 cents a gallon gas is the sweetener. If there is price parity between ICEV and BEV, the market will swing to BEV in a heartbeat.
That tipping point is two years away. Three at most.
Seriously, get one of those wire baskets sold as desk organizers, hang it next to your key rack. Drop your key fob in that basket, and you are safe.
You would feel whole or not, the mine owners would feel whole. Especially if they can pay you in company scrip good only at the company store..
A home is a high illiquid asset, very difficult to sell quickly. For majority of Americans home equity is the single largest component of their net worth. It is not easy to move looking for a job in a new place with that millstone tied to your neck.
I moved half way across the world seeking better life/job/career. My daughter would not look for a job across the town. I ran the rat race, she would not. She says, "the problem in running the rat race is, even if you win you are still a rat."
Tesla supercharges at the rate of 480 miles per hour (when the battery is low). Starting on an empty battery, supercharging is 8 miles min for 15 min, then 6 miles per min for the next 10, 4 miles per min for the next 20, 2 miles per min rest of the way.
Now you know why Tesla is winning, right?
Why do you think there are going to be outlets on the edges of lawns 50 feet away? Outlets will be in the garages and on the drive way. If will not be on the ground. Either on the walls, or may be on a short post.
Have you seen what some folks do for their holiday lights? They casually run extension cords all over the lawn, without proper shielding or grounding in the snow and rain...
Weekly gas fillings 10 minutes a week, (9 hours a year) changing oil and filter: one hour every four months, 3 hours a year ... These savings are not given their due credit when people obsess about 45 minute supercharge penalty on long distance driving.
Price parity between ICEV and BEV is on hand, withing 2 years. You will have a wide selection of cars, all shapes and sizes and prices, to your taste, same price gas or battery, take your pick. You might be disappointed by today's selection of BEV. It will change soon, and you will really really like a pure electric drive train. Handling and acceleration is amazing.
What VW announced today is something like Oscar Meyer announcing it is not going to build any new real hamburger factories.
. My problem is ... . Stopping with a carload of boys to charge for 2 hours along the way is ... not going to sell cars.
You are correct. It is your problem.
You missed a crucial word, let me fix it for you: Stopping with a carload of boys to charge for 2 hours along the way is ... not going to sell cars to me
There are plenty of people who can use BEVs that are made today. Lot more will buy cheaper ones in the coming years. Someday, it might even include you.
BEV will peel away market share, slowly at first, with momentum later.
True, and BEVs are getting there. BEVs will take over the world without any incentives. It will be sooner with incentives. In my opinion, it is a good thing and the government should expedite the transition with as much help as possible. I know you would disagree. You vote your way, I vote mine.
Good for you. That is 120$ not going to middle east every month.