Very true. The warrant was issued by the Great State of Texas. Very well know be ruled by corrupt people who would use the state to pursue personal vendetta.
Tesla did sell some 60 kWh batteries software limited to 40 kWh in some model S60. Also it sold some 100kWh batteries software locked down to 85 kWh. These were all gimmicks to sell the car and hoping enough people will pay over time to mitigate the loss. It is usually done immediate cash is more valuable than the loss. It is not done on a regular basis.
But everytime Tesla unlocks additional battery capacity through software for short periods on hurricane emergencies people get the idea it is putting 100 kWh batteries in all cars, limiting the range by software. No. Auto batteries have not become that cheap. yet. Tesla guarantees the battery capacity for 10 years. The charge/discharge settings are to make sure the batteries do not degrade fast. But you can always allow additional voltages and currents to the cells for short period without seriously impacting the durability of the batteries. The PR value would more than compensate for the small number of batteries suffering premature failure and triggering warranty replacement.
Further, the batteries coming off Teslas are not going to scrap yard. They can very happily serve as whole house UPS or backup power for data centers for a long time before being recycled for the raw materials. There is a very serious residual value in these batteries when they are done their tour of duty on the roads. The model 3 battery, degraded from 75 kWh to 50 kWh can still power a home for two days.
Seriously, there are plenty of good reasons to support Tesla. Idiots spouting bullshit to try and close down conversation merely obscure those.
OK I did not give allowance in advance for a possible legitimate counter argument. Good. Point well taken.
Did you vocalize any of the plenty of good reasons to support Tesla? 4 digit ID, achievements 39, lots of postings. I cant find if you had done so. Please post links if you have.
Given BMW and Mercedes alone sell more cars each month than Tesla make in a quarter, I'm feeling confident that you're talking shit.
The figures you cite includes cross overs, SUVs and cars. Tesla has not released model Y yet. Once it does, we can compare these numbers. Anyway there is a legitimate argument that sedan market is shrinking anyway, and the BMW sedan sale drop (double digits for three years now) is not due to Tesla.
Carvana and Carmax are making a dent into that segment of the market.
People buying used car, out of factory warranty, want to see, touch and drive the car, may be take it to a mechanic. The internet companies take cars not in demand in some part (like AWD Subaru in Florida) and sell them where they have high local demand.
Used car market going national and transparent will put a dent into the high mark ups of high quality used cars.
If they really make a good EV and occupy the 35K segment, it is ok. The goal is to kill the ICEV, not propping up Tesla.
But without Tesla they wont make a no-compromise EV. They will design it not to hurt the ICEV sales. Without Tesla chasing their tail there will not be a really good EV at 35K. That is why we need to pop up Tesla till the market shifts. Then we can let Tesla go to hell.
Look how crippled Leaf was. No thermal management system, 50% capacity loss in two years, reduced to 40 mile range in winter with cabin heat on... come on, thee would never be a Leaf 60, had there not been a Model3.
Jaguar is shifting first because it was bought by Ford that killed its engine division. Now owned by Tata, it has a diesel engine plant but it does not have the heavy emotional attachment or know how. So it is willing to ditch ICE first. Tata wants real EVs for India anyway too.
But BMW and Porsche have ICEV fanatics, pedigree, enthusiasts, know how. They would loathe to give up what they built over a century. Start a fresh in battery EV? Only because Tesla is able to eat their market share with X, S and 3 they are coming out with EV.
No the 35K model will come, once the waiting list is exhausted and the battery production capacity hits 10,000 a week. The German breakdown predicted a $20K gross margin per vehicle for the premium version at 10K units/week. The Monroe breakdown predicted a $10K margin at the 4K units/week. UBS sued Monroe to gag him up, but its report did agree 42K as the production cost for the premium versions. It switched to net margin, including factory depreciation and R&D costs to report a negative margin for the base model, but added a misleading "summary" that suggested negative margin for the base model.
Elon mentioned the gross margin would be 0$ at 5K units a week for the base model. At 10K/week, given the one more year of price drop for the batteries, and other optimizations, there will be a 10K gross margin for the base model too. As long as there is demand for the premium versions, it will sell them to pay down debt and raise capital. But as the premium version demand is sated, it will switch to base model. It might even make a lower than base model too.
There is model Y in the works. That too would be around 60K and it will keep the high end demand up.
Tesla will not be making base model for a long time. It might make a few runs to satisfy the line waiters and other long time supporters.
I have talked to Leaf owners. It is actually not a good intro to EV.
The battery had no thermal management. So it was losing capacity very quickly. Lost 50% capacity in two years due to battery degradation. Nissan attempted to fix it by reducing the charging current rate. So it needed more than 12 hours of charge. Winter range drops to 75 miles on full charge. In two or three year old vehicles is around 40 miles on full charge, and you need to wrap yourself in blankets and avoid using the cabin heat.
Bolt always had thermal management.
Both Leaf and Bolt suffer from the compromises made to avoid cannibalizing their ICEV sales. On paper it is an EV, affordable, it has bullet points, a compliance car. But the companies dont promote it seriously, the dealers dont want to sell it.
My brother says these are deliberate attempts to sour the people off EV. But he is over reacting. Why ascribe to malice what is easily explained by incompetence?
Full 30% of MBAs coming out the top schools are Indians, Indian Americans, engineers mostly. Prepare for the day most business decisions are made in Karnatic music concert venue canteens small talks and the circumambulation corridors of temples instead of country clubs.
Tesla semi is still a vaporware, these speciality makers are getting into the market ahead of it. It is good. It was Tesla's announcement that legitimized this segment and got them VC funding for many of them. Many of these are actually headed by Tesla Alumni engineers.
But why are you suddenly mixing up heavy duty trucks and cars? The segment that Tesla is actually shipping products, competition is still announcing vaporware no-compromise cars or selling deliberately crippled EVs. They dont want EVs to be cannibalize their ICEV sales.
In August more Model 3 were sold than Altima, Accent, Legacy, Impreza, Sentra, Focus, the Fiats, Chryslers,....all these "affordable" middle class cars. Of course it also outsold all BMW cars combined, all Lexus cars combined, all MB cars combined, so it is definitely breaking out of the luxury, high end markets and reaching outside.
Only Accord, Civic, Corolla and Camry outsold Model 3 in August. It is not a 1% 's car. More like 2%'s car. Very few outside the 5% buy brand new cars. 95% of Americans buy used vehicles. 90% of the Americans are driving used vehicles they bought below 20K.
Model S and X can be legitimately called 1%'s car. But Model 3 is affordable for about 30% of the people who buy new cars.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018...
Come on, Tesla Model 3 is the fifth best selling car by units and the number 1 selling car by revenue in August. Just Civic, Accord, Corolla and Camry sold more in August, but Model 3 raked in 900 million dollars, more than any one of them.
These are not ZEV credit market numbers. These are what a no-compromise EV can do. There is no special technology or patents with Tesla. All it needs is a will to let the ICEV sales by cannibalized by the EV divisions, the traditional car makers can all make cars like the Tesla.
Tesla is not selling Model 3 in negative gross margin and survives by ZEV credits. Three independent tear downs estimated positive gross margin for both the high end Model 3 above 50K and for the low end 35 K model. The most negative report came from UBS, that first gagged Monroe who did the teardown with a law suite, conceded 50 K model 3 has a gross margin of 9000$, then switched to net margin while talking about the 35 K version, while giving the impression it is still talking about gross margin. The German teardown priced it 28K per unit for the 50K car at 10,000 cars a week. Monroe admitted he is going eat crow and estimated 18% gross margin for the model 3.
Tesla is NOT selling cars at a loss hoping to sell ZEV credits.
I don't think there is a big conspiracy against Tesla, but it is an unfortunate confluence of click bait journalism, negative stories about Musk having better ratings play etc. And Musk shooting his mouth off and smoking pot on tv helps them a lot too.
It is unfortunate Musk gets the company into trouble.
He was prescient enough to see a Moore's law for batteries, with a 7 year period for power density and price. His prediction is coming exactly. He was charismatic enough to persuade enough VCs to fund a company that can make a no-compromise EV, not some compliance vehicle. But the company is stable now. The production hell has been debugged out. Now they are going through the delivery hell, and are talking about parts and repairs etc like a regular car company. At this point Elon is hurting more than helping Tesla.
Tesla Model 3 is the fifth best selling car by volume and the number one car by revenue in August.
Reminds me of my grandma's theory of nutrition. Every food item is supposed to by high in one of the four things, "heat, coldness, bile or gas". She would go, "Mangoes are hot, and buttermilk is cold, peanuts have bile and potatoes have gas, why? because I say so, and I say so because my grandma said so."
This four type of people also sounds like that. But one thing about grandma's nutrition, if you balance all the four things, you find you also get a reasonably balanced meal by modern standards. Not so sure this four type of people sorting would match that performance.
Tesla Roadster circa 2012 has not been beaten by any of the big companies you talk about. There is still no 300 mile electric roadster in the martket.
They have the money. yes.
Do they have the will? Are they willing to make a no compromise electric that would definitely cannibalize their ICE sales in the short term? No.
They are threading the needle. Slowly gradually build their electric capacity and when the gross margin in EV becomes better than their gross margin in ICEV they will switch. That is their plan.
Without Tesla their time line will stretch well into 2030s and 2040s. If Tesla is dead, it will be that long before you get no compromise electric car.
That is the reason to root for Tesla. If you want the switch over to EV be fast, you need to light a fire under the tail of the dinosaurs. And Tesla's viability is the fire. No Tesla, No EV till 2040.
I used to think if the access point is through a top level domainname, like https://cloudflare-ipfs.com/
the ISPs or the governments controlling the ISP can block access to it.
Looks like that is not the case. Dont know how people circumvent the simple blocks based on ip addresses.
Tesla, E-Tron, Leaf, all these cars are showing we have reached the necessary numbers for total charge, charge/weight ratio and acceptable charging speeds. The biggest metric we need to breakthrough is cost. 100 $ per kWh at pack level. That is the key number. Tesla is already reporting 100$/kWh at cell level and 130 $/kWh at pack level. Recent investor relations is hinting 100$/kWh at pack level. That is the industry leading number being bandied about.
Other companies are not far behind.
When the battery pack costs 100 $/kWh, the battery + motor has the same price as ICE+transmission. Electrics can also do battery+ 2 smaller motors electronically linked AWD. That should be compared to ICE+AWD transmission. At that price ICE car and EV car will cost the same off the factory. EV running cost is 4 times smaller than ICE. The mass adoption would be inevitable.
Charging speed is not a big issue now. For an ICE every joule that turns the wheel comes from a gas station. For an EV 90% to 95% of the energy will come from an outlet in the garage. Only street parking people, condos without decent chargers, people traveling longer than 250 miles a day will need to go to the equivalent of gas stations. So we need two orders of magnitude fewer charging stations compared to gas stations. And the charging speed is tolerable. It will get better, there are charging technologies on the horizon and it is limited by cost, not technical breakthrough.
Grid capacity is not an issue. Grid is at 25% to 30% of the peak capacity at night. So the current grid itself is enough even if all ICEVs switch to EVs overnight today.
We get reimbursed when the profits they make are taxed by the government. This is a good great working model. Government plants so many seeds, and most of the fundamental research does not pan out. Private companies would not have the kind of risk tolerance or deep pockets the government has. But once in a while there is a fantastic breakthrough, a super hit, that generates tons of profits. It takes lots more investment and work to take the invention and make money out of it. Private companies are good at that. And if they pay their due share of taxes, the innovation machine will keep churning.
When the companies dodge taxes and play tricks like creating shell companies to pump money around we get shafted. So keep you anger, but direct it towards tax dodgers and their abettors in the congress.
I got an SMS text alert saying the SIM card of one of my phone has been changed and it provided a link to click if that was not correct.
The from address was spoofed and it appeared exactly as if it came from T Mobile. In fact the t-mobile phone displayed that message along with other legitimate text alerts from T-Mobile.
I knew enough not to click on the link provided, and called T-Mobile. It was not a legitimate message. But they hackers were able to spoof the from address in the SMS. It happened yesterday. Not sure if that is a fall out of stolen email id.
He promises 1000. Delivers 900. Everyone focuses on falling short of the target by 100. While forgeting that 900 is 900 above what every one said is impossible.
Slashdot Mirror
Very true. The warrant was issued by the Great State of Texas. Very well know be ruled by corrupt people who would use the state to pursue personal vendetta.
Not really known to be totalitarian anti gun anti second amendment state.
But everytime Tesla unlocks additional battery capacity through software for short periods on hurricane emergencies people get the idea it is putting 100 kWh batteries in all cars, limiting the range by software. No. Auto batteries have not become that cheap. yet. Tesla guarantees the battery capacity for 10 years. The charge/discharge settings are to make sure the batteries do not degrade fast. But you can always allow additional voltages and currents to the cells for short period without seriously impacting the durability of the batteries. The PR value would more than compensate for the small number of batteries suffering premature failure and triggering warranty replacement.
Further, the batteries coming off Teslas are not going to scrap yard. They can very happily serve as whole house UPS or backup power for data centers for a long time before being recycled for the raw materials. There is a very serious residual value in these batteries when they are done their tour of duty on the roads. The model 3 battery, degraded from 75 kWh to 50 kWh can still power a home for two days.
Anyway there is a legitimate argument
Which you didn't try to make.
Seriously, there are plenty of good reasons to support Tesla. Idiots spouting bullshit to try and close down conversation merely obscure those.
OK I did not give allowance in advance for a possible legitimate counter argument. Good. Point well taken.
Did you vocalize any of the plenty of good reasons to support Tesla? 4 digit ID, achievements 39, lots of postings. I cant find if you had done so. Please post links if you have.
The figures you cite includes cross overs, SUVs and cars. Tesla has not released model Y yet. Once it does, we can compare these numbers. Anyway there is a legitimate argument that sedan market is shrinking anyway, and the BMW sedan sale drop (double digits for three years now) is not due to Tesla.
People buying used car, out of factory warranty, want to see, touch and drive the car, may be take it to a mechanic. The internet companies take cars not in demand in some part (like AWD Subaru in Florida) and sell them where they have high local demand.
Used car market going national and transparent will put a dent into the high mark ups of high quality used cars.
But without Tesla they wont make a no-compromise EV. They will design it not to hurt the ICEV sales. Without Tesla chasing their tail there will not be a really good EV at 35K. That is why we need to pop up Tesla till the market shifts. Then we can let Tesla go to hell.
Look how crippled Leaf was. No thermal management system, 50% capacity loss in two years, reduced to 40 mile range in winter with cabin heat on ... come on, thee would never be a Leaf 60, had there not been a Model3.
Jaguar is shifting first because it was bought by Ford that killed its engine division. Now owned by Tata, it has a diesel engine plant but it does not have the heavy emotional attachment or know how. So it is willing to ditch ICE first. Tata wants real EVs for India anyway too.
But BMW and Porsche have ICEV fanatics, pedigree, enthusiasts, know how. They would loathe to give up what they built over a century. Start a fresh in battery EV? Only because Tesla is able to eat their market share with X, S and 3 they are coming out with EV.
Elon mentioned the gross margin would be 0$ at 5K units a week for the base model. At 10K /week, given the one more year of price drop for the batteries, and other optimizations, there will be a 10K gross margin for the base model too. As long as there is demand for the premium versions, it will sell them to pay down debt and raise capital. But as the premium version demand is sated, it will switch to base model. It might even make a lower than base model too.
There is model Y in the works. That too would be around 60K and it will keep the high end demand up.
Tesla will not be making base model for a long time. It might make a few runs to satisfy the line waiters and other long time supporters.
The battery had no thermal management. So it was losing capacity very quickly. Lost 50% capacity in two years due to battery degradation. Nissan attempted to fix it by reducing the charging current rate. So it needed more than 12 hours of charge. Winter range drops to 75 miles on full charge. In two or three year old vehicles is around 40 miles on full charge, and you need to wrap yourself in blankets and avoid using the cabin heat.
Bolt always had thermal management.
Both Leaf and Bolt suffer from the compromises made to avoid cannibalizing their ICEV sales. On paper it is an EV, affordable, it has bullet points, a compliance car. But the companies dont promote it seriously, the dealers dont want to sell it.
My brother says these are deliberate attempts to sour the people off EV. But he is over reacting. Why ascribe to malice what is easily explained by incompetence?
Full 30% of MBAs coming out the top schools are Indians, Indian Americans, engineers mostly. Prepare for the day most business decisions are made in Karnatic music concert venue canteens small talks and the circumambulation corridors of temples instead of country clubs.
Tesla semi is still a vaporware, these speciality makers are getting into the market ahead of it. It is good. It was Tesla's announcement that legitimized this segment and got them VC funding for many of them. Many of these are actually headed by Tesla Alumni engineers.
But why are you suddenly mixing up heavy duty trucks and cars? The segment that Tesla is actually shipping products, competition is still announcing vaporware no-compromise cars or selling deliberately crippled EVs. They dont want EVs to be cannibalize their ICEV sales.
Only Accord, Civic, Corolla and Camry outsold Model 3 in August. It is not a 1% 's car. More like 2%'s car. Very few outside the 5% buy brand new cars. 95% of Americans buy used vehicles. 90% of the Americans are driving used vehicles they bought below 20K.
Model S and X can be legitimately called 1%'s car. But Model 3 is affordable for about 30% of the people who buy new cars. https://cleantechnica.com/2018...
Only Tesla scandals, real and imagined, are to be given top play. Please take down this thread.
These are not ZEV credit market numbers. These are what a no-compromise EV can do. There is no special technology or patents with Tesla. All it needs is a will to let the ICEV sales by cannibalized by the EV divisions, the traditional car makers can all make cars like the Tesla.
Tesla is not selling Model 3 in negative gross margin and survives by ZEV credits. Three independent tear downs estimated positive gross margin for both the high end Model 3 above 50K and for the low end 35 K model. The most negative report came from UBS, that first gagged Monroe who did the teardown with a law suite, conceded 50 K model 3 has a gross margin of 9000$, then switched to net margin while talking about the 35 K version, while giving the impression it is still talking about gross margin. The German teardown priced it 28K per unit for the 50K car at 10,000 cars a week. Monroe admitted he is going eat crow and estimated 18% gross margin for the model 3.
Tesla is NOT selling cars at a loss hoping to sell ZEV credits.
I don't think there is a big conspiracy against Tesla, but it is an unfortunate confluence of click bait journalism, negative stories about Musk having better ratings play etc. And Musk shooting his mouth off and smoking pot on tv helps them a lot too.
He was prescient enough to see a Moore's law for batteries, with a 7 year period for power density and price. His prediction is coming exactly. He was charismatic enough to persuade enough VCs to fund a company that can make a no-compromise EV, not some compliance vehicle. But the company is stable now. The production hell has been debugged out. Now they are going through the delivery hell, and are talking about parts and repairs etc like a regular car company. At this point Elon is hurting more than helping Tesla.
Tesla Model 3 is the fifth best selling car by volume and the number one car by revenue in August.
This four type of people also sounds like that. But one thing about grandma's nutrition, if you balance all the four things, you find you also get a reasonably balanced meal by modern standards. Not so sure this four type of people sorting would match that performance.
They have the money. yes.
Do they have the will? Are they willing to make a no compromise electric that would definitely cannibalize their ICE sales in the short term? No.
They are threading the needle. Slowly gradually build their electric capacity and when the gross margin in EV becomes better than their gross margin in ICEV they will switch. That is their plan.
Without Tesla their time line will stretch well into 2030s and 2040s. If Tesla is dead, it will be that long before you get no compromise electric car.
That is the reason to root for Tesla. If you want the switch over to EV be fast, you need to light a fire under the tail of the dinosaurs. And Tesla's viability is the fire. No Tesla, No EV till 2040.
Looks like that is not the case. Dont know how people circumvent the simple blocks based on ip addresses.
Try something like, "You would not believe where it was hiding!". But even that is becoming stale.
Other companies are not far behind.
When the battery pack costs 100 $/kWh, the battery + motor has the same price as ICE+transmission. Electrics can also do battery+ 2 smaller motors electronically linked AWD. That should be compared to ICE+AWD transmission. At that price ICE car and EV car will cost the same off the factory. EV running cost is 4 times smaller than ICE. The mass adoption would be inevitable.
Charging speed is not a big issue now. For an ICE every joule that turns the wheel comes from a gas station. For an EV 90% to 95% of the energy will come from an outlet in the garage. Only street parking people, condos without decent chargers, people traveling longer than 250 miles a day will need to go to the equivalent of gas stations. So we need two orders of magnitude fewer charging stations compared to gas stations. And the charging speed is tolerable. It will get better, there are charging technologies on the horizon and it is limited by cost, not technical breakthrough.
Grid capacity is not an issue. Grid is at 25% to 30% of the peak capacity at night. So the current grid itself is enough even if all ICEVs switch to EVs overnight today.
When the companies dodge taxes and play tricks like creating shell companies to pump money around we get shafted. So keep you anger, but direct it towards tax dodgers and their abettors in the congress.
The from address was spoofed and it appeared exactly as if it came from T Mobile. In fact the t-mobile phone displayed that message along with other legitimate text alerts from T-Mobile.
I knew enough not to click on the link provided, and called T-Mobile. It was not a legitimate message. But they hackers were able to spoof the from address in the SMS. It happened yesterday. Not sure if that is a fall out of stolen email id.
The worm was up before the bird and got eaten. If you are a worm, be late or you will be late.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ma... The 9.9% is the new bourgois, the 0.1% is the new aristocrats, the 90% is the proletariat.
Was making 80K to 120K cars till 2014.
Is making 50K electric cars now.
He will make 35K electric car next year
He promises 1000. Delivers 900. Everyone focuses on falling short of the target by 100. While forgeting that 900 is 900 above what every one said is impossible.