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Maybe my post wasn't too clear. Sorry for that. I also should have posted a source. The name of the company created by SOE is Station Publishing. Let me quote the home page for you:

" Station Publishing(TM) offers developers and publishers the opportunity to capitalize on Sony Online Entertainment's experienced and robust marketing, PR, sales and distribution services. Station Publishing meets the needs of a growing number of companies who may not have the capability or inclination to undertake this 'last mile' themselves. The scope of services offered under Station Publishing are matched to the needs of the distribution arrangement.

Our first titles to be released under Station Publishing will be Turbine Entertainment Software's Asheron's Call: Throne of Destiny and Asheron's Call 2: Legions. We are reviewing a number of other titles, and are open to discussions with developers and publishers for games on most platforms. For interested parties, please email us."

Also, your statement about Lord of the Rings Online oughting the rights to VUG is wrong. In late march, they bought back the exclusive rights from VUG (press release). That leaves them free to use Station Publishing, doesn't it ?

And as for Dungeons and Dragons online, I guess that's the exception. But there's a logic to it. Atari has got a deal with Wizards of the Coast to publish most (if not all) of the games using their licenses (see Neverwinter Nights - Forgotten Realms -, for instnce).

So my post wasn't spreading rumors, I think. I was asking valid questions, making hypostesis, and I never said I was 100% sure or that I had "inside sources".

Kthx.

Further proof that you don't need photorealistic graphics to make a good game that people will use.

FYI, my next update on my web site will have WoW at 2 million subscribers according to inside sources.

Bruce
http://www.mmogchart.com/

Someone let out all the Vanguard fanbois, and their ire is all directed at me now. :P Must have been a post on the vsoh boards?

Anyway, it's important to stress that these are all just quick impressions, not in-depth reviews. I don't think my thoughts about Vanguard were particularly harsh. I admitted that I didn't get a chance to see the whole thing; just that what I saw pretty graphics and not much else. From what they've said otherwise, the game doesn't sound very innovative. Sorry, but that's just the way it is; everyone who has read Brad's manifesto knows that he is planning on an old-style, hardcore, group-centric game like EQ1. I'm sure the games other features are important to some people, but do you really think the primary marketing for the game is going to be "Innovative Crafting!" or "Seamless World With No Zones!"? No, those will take a back seat to the real theme of the game. And while you may not like the more casual friendly, heavy instancing, etc. style of gameplay many newer MMOGs are moving to, I believe you are not the majority of the market.

Vanguard will be very appealing to SOME people. Hell, some people still play WWII Online and Horizons. What my job is to discern is what sort of impact the game will have on the market. Brad says he wants 500K subscribers -- it ain't gonna happen, unless Koreans embrace the game. He says he'd be happy with 250K, and he might get that, but it's hardly guaranteed. He'll get at least 100K though.

Might there be a really great game hiding in Vanguard? It's possible, but I didn't see it, and if the guys at Sigil were interested in my opinion, they should have made a better effort to convince me and other E3 goers. Not having their own booth means a lot of people at E3 never even saw the game. This may seem superficial to you, but the issue is not the game is objectively a good one but how the game is going to be perceived by the gaming public. Sometimes the best games in the world can languish in unpopularity due to poor marketing.

Bruce
MMOG Analyst
http://www.mmogchart.com/

http://www.mmogchart.com/

last valid datapoint (550k) was before WoW came out.. however:
http://www.playonline.com/ff11us/event/survey/02ma in_job.html

suggests that there are still around 500k accounts active in the game, as of March.

what this means is, until WoW came along, FF11 was one of *the largest* MMOs in the world (behind RO, Seal, Lineage, L2, and a few other korean MMOs that count subscribers in different ways).

It might've been an underwhelming experience to play (level downs, annoying mechanics, huge amounts of downtime when rezzing, etc) but the game itself was an overwhelming success.

I'm not an eye-candy nut, but the market *is*. I'm not reviewing the games based upon my personal preferences, but I am giving first impressions and judging how the game might be received by OTHERS in the gaming community. And the inescapable truth of the North American market is that graphics are important. Great gameplay might be able to trump mediocre graphics, but poor gameplay can't. And great graphics can sometimes sustain even a mediocre game.

Great graphics are also an indicator of how much money is spent on the title. Sure, it's possible for a title to be all hat and not cattle. But chances are if they spent a lot on graphics, they're going to spend a lot on marketing too, and the two together can turn even a so-so title into a hit. 8-bit sprites may be fine with compelling gameplay, but chances are the 8-bit sprite guys aren't going to get a publisher, so you'll never see it in the store or read about it in a review, so you'll never even know about it.

But still, gameplay is very important. But it is almost *impossible* to judge a MMOG's gameplay before late beta if not release, because so much usually gets added and changed towards the end of the production cycle. And with MMOGs constantly changing, a game can start with good gameplay and wind up sucking after several patches, or vice-versa.

Bruce
http://www.mmogchart.com/

It is interesting to note that of the four games I know of with integrated voice chat - PlanetSide, There, Tabula Rasa, and Auto Assault - three are FPS/shooter/sci-fi type of play. But I don't think voice chat is somehow how at odds with fantasy play. You do have fantasy races, sure, but they are no different from alien races (or the lack thereof).

Personally I don't think there will be a big problem with voice chat breaking immersitivity. Those who want it will use it and those who don't, won't. Will this cut down on the amount of cross-gender roleplaying? Probably somewhat, but not too much, since I've known plenty of guys who RPed female characters in PnP games. Other developers believe we need to implement a "voice masking" type of technology, so players can retain anonymity.

My biggest concern is that such technology may segregate players too much. People who embrace voice chat might not want to socialize much with those who don't have it. Grouping is more difficult, for one. Secondly, they'll wonder why the person doesn't have it. Are they not really female? Are they secretly black (or white)? Perhaps they stutter. We might see a lot of people offering excuses, e.g. "I'm deaf" or "My microphone broke" and so on. But will this cause people to naturally segregate into voice and non-voice social groups? Only time will tell.

Bruce
http://www.mmogchart.com/

Just a couple things to add:

1. There games are order by company in no particular order, but I did put the bigger companies towards the front of the list. Dungeons & Dragons Online gets my "Best in Show" award, as it impressed me the most, but I was also intrigued by SUN and both Tabula Rasa and Imperator.

2. I focused primarily on upcoming MMOGs, not existing ones or expansions (CoV being arguable). I wasn't trying to provide a comprehensive review of each game; just a quick idea of what the game's about and what struck me the most about it.

3. The list is far from comprehensive -- there were a few MMOGs that I missed, plus dozens more that weren't there, and a slew of Asian ones as well. Any of these could be a sleeper hit!

Bruce
http://www.mmogchart.com/

I'm not so sure how Turbine managed to get so much funding, given how Ascheron's Call 2 has a pretty dismal showing in the MMORPG market -- if you take a look at the the lastest MMORPG charts, you can see that although Ascheron's Call 1 peaked at 120,000 subscribers, Ascheron's Call 2 only peaked at ~50,000 subscribers, and dropped precipitously after May 2003.

Just as my two cents, I'd prefer to see funding go to the makers of Anarchy Online, Planetside, or Eve Online, which are also indie, but have a much better subscriber base & track record.

If you want subscriber charts...

I've been so jealous of EverQuest 2's /pizza feature. I mean, why spend time developing a game and its content, when you can make completely worthless marketing deals?

I think that the /pizza feature is why EQ2 is beating the pants off of WoW in subscriber count.

Sorry, that's 2 million each, individually. Check out http://www.mmogchart.com/.

Who the hell modded this flamebait?

Let's head over to our friend SirBruce's MMOGChart and take a peak at the subscriber chart. Hmm - comparing, I'd say Blizzard kicked Square's scrawny ass!

But let's compare reviews, too.

Final Fantasy XI - 8.2
World of Warcraft - 9.5

Hmm... I'd say World of Warcraft gave them a thorough trouncing, wouldn't you?

Hell, I'm even being kind to it. It got 8.0 for the PS2 version and it's latest expansion got 6.8 (both platforms).

I'd say, objectively, that Square got its ass handed to it.

Who the hell modded this flamebait?

Let's head over to our friend SirBruce's MMOGChart and take a peak at the subscriber chart. Hmm - comparing, I'd say Blizzard kicked Square's scrawny ass!

But let's compare reviews, too.

Final Fantasy XI - 8.2
World of Warcraft - 9.5

Hmm... I'd say World of Warcraft gave them a thorough trouncing, wouldn't you?

Hell, I'm even being kind to it. It got 8.0 for the PS2 version and it's latest expansion got 6.8 (both platforms).

I'd say, objectively, that Square got its ass handed to it.

Last subscriber count for WoW was 1.25 million.

What was EQ's again? MMOGChart seems to suggest that WoW hit 1,250,000 subscribers in the same time EQ hit 100,000. That's over 12 times the subscribers!

I'm guessing that EQ isn't QUITE comparable here.

Then again, there's always that smashing success known as The Sims Online, boasting a decline in subscriber totals down to roughly 36k, from a peak of 105k in mid-2003.

XBoxes outselling PS2s? Hmmm, it couldn't be because the PS2 installed base is so large that there aren't many more people to sell to.

XBox 2 before PS3? Clearly the PS3 is doomed, just like the Sega Dreamcast doomed the PS2.

The iPod is killing the Walkman? A clear sign of doom. Hey, I heard that the iPod is also killing 8-tracks! The end of the world is nigh!

And of course, the PSP's failure is the key. Sure, Sony has managed to exist all of these years without a portable system, yet suddenly it's absolutely critical and proof that they're doomed.

We'll see where we are in a year or two, but I'm confident that Sony will be alive and well. Sony will remain profitable. In a worst realistic case scenario Sony might fall to second place in total installed base, but even then it would be a close race.

On Bruce Sterling Woodcock's site there's a chart showing market share which includes WoW.

On Bruce Sterling Woodcock's site there's a chart showing market share which includes WoW.

There's a great chart on page 8 of TFA which shows the number of subscribers to the major MMORPGs. I was curious and found the source of the charts, it's Bruce Sterling Woodcock's site and there's a newer version of the chart I liked here, and there are lots more.

There's a great chart on page 8 of TFA which shows the number of subscribers to the major MMORPGs. I was curious and found the source of the charts, it's Bruce Sterling Woodcock's site and there's a newer version of the chart I liked here, and there are lots more.

How did you come to the conclusion that EQ is the most popular North American MMO? World of Warcraft is. And I don't mean to start a EQ vs WoW war here, it's just a fact : 600 000 just for the holiday season. Add to that 200 000 boxes that were bought prior to the holidays. EQ2 only has 310 000 players, and EQ Live never reached 500 000 according to this site. Yes, the site lists only 200 000 customers but hasn't been updated since late november.

3 million Koreans say: KEKEKEKE! Lineage!

http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart1.html/

Lineage and Lineage II completely dwarves the other MMORPGs, but on the other hand they don't seem to be very popular outside Asia. I think WoW will be very successful, but I *highly* doubt they will capture the #1 spot.

For some cool charts, check out this site.

...the secondary market for virtual goods is estimated at $880 million annually.

Let's see, a look at mmogchart.com shows that there are barely 8.8 million total MMOG subscribers. Are we to believe that MMOG subscribers spend an average of $100 annually on virtual trade after the cost of the subscriptions themselves? No way.

Perhaps 10 percent of subscribers play intensely enough in games with viable virtual markets to spend $100 annually on virtual trade, which works out to $88 million annually.

The quoted estimate is junk, off by an order of magnitude. When such obvious garbage is highlighted at the top of an article it's a good sign that there's little point in reading the rest of the piece.

Probably because they don't have that many paying customers (or a very good game)

Um.. hello?

Quality of the game aside (reviews range from 90% to 40% - which indicates that you probably either love or hate it) - Lineage 2 has 1.5 million subscribers and still climbing. This is more than three times the number of Everquest subscribers at it's peak.

Lineage 2 is the second most popular MMO in the world - next to the previous game in the series, Lineage 1, which still has 3.25 million subscribers.

If I was worried about people leaving me for another game, I would give it away for free. If I was secure in my products quality, I would charge.

Your attitude could be why most online games are their own downfall. The only thing that Lineage 2 is competing against is Lineage 1. But they're gaining customers - and keeping them - with their regular free content updates.

Probably because they don't have that many paying customers (or a very good game)

Um.. hello?

Quality of the game aside (reviews range from 90% to 40% - which indicates that you probably either love or hate it) - Lineage 2 has 1.5 million subscribers and still climbing. This is more than three times the number of Everquest subscribers at it's peak.

Lineage 2 is the second most popular MMO in the world - next to the previous game in the series, Lineage 1, which still has 3.25 million subscribers.

If I was worried about people leaving me for another game, I would give it away for free. If I was secure in my products quality, I would charge.

Your attitude could be why most online games are their own downfall. The only thing that Lineage 2 is competing against is Lineage 1. But they're gaining customers - and keeping them - with their regular free content updates.

Yea, it is so bad that it's the most popular MMO with the exception of Lineage 1 & 2.

The quest portion of SWG really kept my interest for a while, especially when compared to Lin2, which does not have quests integrated with normal griding like SWG (SWG: go kill imperial base, get good xp and cash, while L2 = go kill monster, get some cash, bad xp).

I think the bottom line for me is that other than this genre ennui I'm experiencing, I'd just like a game in which I didn't feel like "HEY! It's 10pm on a Friday night! I could be wasting my time drinking beer or ACHIEVING lvl 41" where you get sucked into this false sense of urgency for griding, as if it's some sort of academic achievement ... I want a game that griding might be a partof it, but if I lose a couple of days or weeks out of gameplay I'm not light-years behind the other players.

That's kinda what happened with Lin2. I was lvl32, on par with everyone else, then had a 2 month long vacation away from home and computer, came back and voila! -- the people I'd been with for months were lvl50, and in a group, even if you are fighting monsters much more harder than you're used to, the higher level group members get all your xp. Sigh. In a game where quests are rare, and traveling is mind-bogglingly slow, that ain't going to work.

Of course, my arguement all along about L2 is that what works in Korea will not always work here. That's why L1 is so popular but doesn't really work here in the States. In its defense, L1 is an awesome game. But if people can't see past the graphics, they won't buy it.