Domain: silcom.com
Stories and comments across the archive that link to silcom.com.
Comments · 18
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Classic impulse response - maybeI toy with economic models a bit, and I was speculating on this very topic a few days ago. It is apparent that the tech market is again expanding quickly. I would argue that what we are seeing can be explained as 'ringing' in the economy's response to the positive impulse function that computation and networking technology advances have generated. For reference, according to economic theory (at least as I was taught), in a mature economy technological advances are the basis of economic growth. Something I read a few years ago (can't remember where, but maybe it was Harry S. Dent) cited perhaps a dozen such examples. In every case when the bubble burst the ranks of market participants was decimated, but ten years later the size of that market was about four times its peak at the time of the bubble - a good thing for the survivors.
I think that's true now as well, but this one may be more exciting. In previous tech bubbles, the burst was followed by a long, slow and more or less monotonic increase in activity. In this one, I think that this time the system is 'ringing' - a problem that anyone who is familiar with audio or electronics can relate to. This implies a couple of possibilities.- The response of the system is faster than that of the controller. In this case, the mobility of money and information into and out of the tech investment market is faster than the overall response of the economy (and maybe the regulators). This allows the tech market subsystem to oscillate. If true, this bubble will be followed by another drop (if not a bust), and another bubble, etc.
- Tech is expanding the real economy, so it acts to some extent as an amplifier. In general, the overall economy absorbs energy from a tech bubble, acting as negative feedback and time shifting the growth, moderating the curve. In this case, perhaps the amplifier gain is large, making the net feedback positive. If so then this bubble will be bigger than the last, and the next one bigger yet. Otherwise, this one will be the same or smaller than the last, and the ripples will die out.
Ray Kurzweil argues in The Law of Accelerating Returns that not only is technology increasing faster every year, (first derivative is positive), but the rate of increase is also increasing (second derivative is positive). (See also "The Singularity is Near".) If he is correct then tech bubbles must become a regular component of the economy. This is a new economic model, but it can work, if they don't all come at once. If they are spread in time then like all the point functions in the light wave's phase front they will tend to cancel out to an extent, so the overall economy might even out although particular industries might come and go like fireflies.
Wikipedia has a raft of articles on related topics. - The response of the system is faster than that of the controller. In this case, the mobility of money and information into and out of the tech investment market is faster than the overall response of the economy (and maybe the regulators). This allows the tech market subsystem to oscillate. If true, this bubble will be followed by another drop (if not a bust), and another bubble, etc.
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Re:Are records better than CDs?Why yes, records are better than CD's. This is not a subjective thing like the vacuum tube amps.
They're only better than regular CDs. SA-CDs and DVD-Audio are pretty much at the limit of human hearing's ability.
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Jolly Games
Tom Jolly has designed some interesting board games. Wiz-War is tough to find these days. I've been playing it since around 1990, and have a huge custom set of my own which my friends are addicted to. So addicted that I can rarely get them to play Drakon, which sadly also seems to be out of print. Drakon takes about 30-60 minutes to play and is very accessible.
Cave Troll is also very accessible and playable in under an hour. I recommend Drakon and Cave Troll wholeheartedly. -
Pictures say a 1000 wordshttp://www.silcom.com/~aludwig/images/driver.gif
You will have to create your own motor (magnet + former), your own cone and your own suspension (spider and suround)
get a few donut shaped magnets amd glue them together, a paper tube wrap some thin magnet wire around it secure it with epoxy. get a hunk of round steel and a thin plate. attach the steel to the center of the plate, put the magenets around the pole peice and attach to the plate. add another steel plate to the top with a hole big enough that the former fits in.
thats your motormake a spider from something. get a paper cone and attach it to the spider to the former to the surround to the frame. and your done !
Or, you can get a cheap $10 speaker from partsexpress.com and use that as an example with good drawings
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Lightspeed
Lightspeed does sound interesting, but there's no mention of it on the Cheapass site. The only source I can find is a flaky game retailer.
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Tips from Tom JollyLook at his Manufacturing or Marketing a Game page. For some games it is good to look for small plastic toys to use as parts.
Wouldn't it make more sense to ask this question on BoardGameGeek?
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Here is how one does it
Tom Jolly, creator of Wiz-War, has some good information.
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Some info.
My dad owns a one man game company and his web site has a page about this.
Here.
His games have made it into Games Magazine's top 100 games list more than once, so he might have some reasonable advice. :] -
My Faves
10. Hacker the deluxe edition (until recently oop)
9. Wizwar
8. Nuclear War (which someone made into a silly computer game of a similar name.)
7. Settlers of Catan/Seafarers of Catan (you can find this at nearly every game store)
6. Eurorails/Empire Builder
5. Family Business
4. Risk and/or the NEW risk (of course)
3. Chess
2. Checkers
1. A set of these -
Hmmm...
but as a true bat aficionado, he is just happy to know what it is like to be a bat.
Someone ought to let Nagel know. -
Himmelsbrief
Hear ye! Hear ye!
This chain letter was started by our saviour Jesus Christ the day he died for our sins. And you will be forever damned if you don't follow it's instructions, as it is the words of the Good Lord.
That's the idea. The Himmelsbriefen (Letters from Heaven) have been circulating since 6th century. -
Himmelsbrief
Hear ye! Hear ye!
This chain letter was started by our saviour Jesus Christ the day he died for our sins. And you will be forever damned if you don't follow it's instructions, as it is the words of the Good Lord.
That's the idea. The Himmelsbriefen (Letters from Heaven) have been circulating since 6th century. -
This area of the U.S. is called "Ecotopia".
I live here in Portland, Oregon. This area of the U.S. is called "Ecotopia". Traditionally, people have come here who are more idealistic about the environment, and about everything. (For an explanation of Ecotopia, see the book, The Nine Nations of North America, by Joel Garreau.)
In a way, it makes sense. Mental patients are often extremely rigid. Some won't communicate at all. If the only way to communicate with a mental patient is in Klingon, that might be better than not communicating. The problems of dealing with a mentally ill patient are often far more difficult than hiring someone to speak Klingon. The expense of dealing with someone who won't communicate at all can be huge.
The state requires that hospitals hire translators for people who don't speak English well. This is because mistakes in communicating about medical things can easily be life-threatening. This is more true because people who don't speak English well often try to avoid going to hospitals, so when they do go to one, they are often VERY sick. Some of my friends have worked as translators.
Portland is more international than Georgia. There are many people from all over the world here. We have more than 8,000 Hmong tribespeople from the mountains of Vietnam here in Portland, for example. So, there are often adjustments to the special requirements of people from other cultures. As a volunteer, I've taught English to Iranian women, for example. It was interesting getting to know them; Iranians are far different than you would guess after you have read U.S. government information about Iran. The 100 or more Iranians that I've met are gentle and friendly and concerned about family. The Iranians I've met are light years away from being terrorists. -
Re:analog
May I suggest a little reading?
try this page: Music and the human ear
Very interresting stuff about human hearing.
And also this page:
Is the sound of vinyl better than CD
Wich explain the difference between analog and digital. The graphic example given clearly demonstrate that even at 10Khz, the CD gives only a raw approximation of a wave. If you go up to the theorical 22Khz, you must understand that you only have one sample per oscillon of a sine wave for example. So at these frequencies, a sine wave, square wave of triangle wave all sound the same. Imagine a complex wave full of harmonics from a musical instrument (or 20 instruments at once). All this detail get lost.
Sure, the dynamic range and noise floor is a lot better on CD than vinyl, but the resolution is awful.
Maybe SACD will give us better music and less bits. -
Alternatives in Denver?If Qwest wants to "transition" me and my Linux box to MSN, I'm gonna "transition" straight to another ISP.
Any recommendations for a good, independent dialup ISP in the Denver metro area that's reliable, doesn't limit your hours, is about $20/month, and doesn't give a rat's ass what OS you choose to run? Basically, I'd like to find the Denver equivalent of Santa Barbara's Silicon Beach.
(I wish we could do DSL or cable modem, but we're too far from the switch for DSL, and, as for cable modems, our apartment complex uses this company called Optel (not AT&T like most of the metro area), and they don't offer that service. Sprint's Broadband Direct service would also be cool, I just don't think we'd get permission from the apartment managers to put up the antenna.)
Eric
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Stop subsidizing the American automobile
A lot of the problem is that American automobiles are subsidized way more than public transportation is.
In 1995, this was estimated at $5,000 per family.
If the true costs of the automobile was passed onto to the driving public, ie by paying for roads, parking garages, bridges and compensating for lost taxes not paid on highways and bridges, gas would probably cost $8.00 a gallon US, and public transportation would seem much more reasonable.
George -
And if you use windows...you might be hit by more than enough bogons to neutralize the computrons. Whether bogons are dangerous by themselves is an open question, but I would suggest that you avoid driving for a week or so.
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Non-executable email viruses: memetic parasitesIf you've been amused to see this and other email chain-letters mutate and reproduce - propagating in spite of their bullshitical nature - you might want to look into the emerging science of memetics and how it is applied to urban legends and to chain letters .
It is easier to understand the proliferation of messages that communicate ideas that are contrary to the intent of their proliferators (in other words, people think they're spreading legitimate information but in fact are talking crap) if you see these communications as the result of natural selection rather than conscious creation.
It's the same principle that has allowed us to make much more sense out of the natural world by trying to understand it as the product of evolution, rather than trying to interpret it as the residue of God's Plan.