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To me, the most interesting point of this discovery is that it should improve our understanding of shortwave radio propagation.

It has always frustrated me that the same space program that is producing the data needed to understand the physics needed to make accurate, day-to-day predictions of ionospheric propagation -- a hundred-year-old mystery -- is also the same space program that replaced commercial HF communication with satellites, greatly reducing the economic value of such predictions (and, therefore, the science funding to make them). So now that we have the ability, we no longer have the desire . . . unless one is an amateur radio operator, and it's harder to think of an entity lower on the economic value chain than that.

The most difficult path for shortwave links is one that passes near the magnetic poles, like the path from Southeast Asia to the US East Coast that passes over the north magnetic pole. Energy from the solar wind couples into the Earth's magnetic field; in particular, charged particles are directed parallel to the field. This is great for propagation over most of the planet; however, near the poles the magnetic field becomes vertical and these particles are directed perpendicular to the ground, where they form a ring of radio wave attenuation and refraction in the upper atmosphere that closes this path for many days out of a given month. To open this path there has to be minimal energy coupling from the solar wind, and there is very little understanding of when this will occur. Even the best propagation prediction software (e.g., VOACAP and Proplab Pro) is based on statistics, giving one the probability of a given path being open.

This discovery should add to our understanding of how and when these paths will open. Until then, we have to survive on "Space Weather" web sites like these, and turn on a radio to see for ourselves what the day brings.

(Those interested in an accessible introduction to HF propagation can check out K9LA's propagation site.)

"So will an increase in sunspot activity affect us?"

I'm not a climatologist, so take everything I say with a grain of salt. That said, I tend to doubt one slightly higher than average solar cycle maximum is going to have an noticeable effect on climate.

What's more interesting, to me, is the behavior over multiple cycles. For instance, a long-term disappearance of sunspots in the 17th century corresponded with the Little Ice Age:

http://www.ucar.edu/research/sun/climate.jsp

If you look at the cycles of the past century or so, the predicted cycle 24 peak isn't really all that impressive compared to those of the past 60 years.

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/144063main_Pred ictionPlotLG.jpg

However, comparing cycles 12-16 to subsequent cycles is interesting. The sun does seem to have become more active in general. Has this had a global effect? More importantly, if there has been a global effect, is it detectable against local effects on climate? Keep in mind that even the Little Ice Age was largely regional.

Oblig. links:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/Education/index.html
http://www.ucar.edu/research/sun/
http://spaceweather.com/
http://www.spacew.com/

Chuckle, chuckle chuckle.

If any of you care to do any of the most basic research on the history of climate studies, you will find some very strong "opinions" with regards to human induced climate change.

I do not think, or at least I haven't found one scientist yet that doesn't think the climate is changing.

Everyone agrees on that.

The human part is the sticky issue. I don't believe for example burning fossil fuels is making the sort of climate changes I have witnessed.

I DO know that when you follow THE MONEY on the issue here is what I come up with:

1) Hollywood has made millions off the idea.
2) Al Gore, has made a VERY comfortable living proclaiming it to be so, with a carbon "footprint" even George Bush would be impressed with, even though he has absolutely no expertise scientifically as a proponent of the idea.
3) Every major university institution is giving position and power to those who "TOW THE LINE" about human induced climate change based on Federal funding and NSF grants, which is very lucrative.
4) Every major prediction proclaimed since this idea has come about has been revised every year. Nobody it would seem can predict climatic change, even though, everyone working on the very lucrative professionally and financially idea of human induced climate change, has got the "research numbers down pat" they all assure us.

Contrast that sort of "fish bowl" science research with those in the astrophysics/solar weather fields that say our sun has/is going "berzerk" in the past 30 years.

http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1186 /
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/
http://physics.gmu.edu/~jevans/astr103/CourseNotes /sun_activity.html
http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html

The solar cycles are completly out of "whack" right now.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2005/15sep_sola rminexplodes.htm

The suns behavior is anything but predictable and just this past January I was looking at beautiful aurora while I was visiting Chicago, IL.

Every major planet in the solars system is ALSO experiencing a warming trend.

http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/3 434

That could be due to all of the human colonies we have on mars for example as well as Jupitor's moons.

There is plenty of evidence for alternative explanations to climate change.

So why are we not hearing them?

ANSWER: No money to be made.

I mean look at some of the truly outrageous projects given considered SERIOUS thought by proponents of global warming:

http://www.enn.com/today.html?id=8897

HOW MUCH do you think a project like that would cost and WHO DO you think is going to get the money for it?

It sure isn't the third world countries who are being asked to starve to death and endure this climate change.

There is no suggestion of planting more trees either as you can't make money off of planting trees. It costs too much.

I SEMLL A RAT.

-Hackus

-Hackus

Saw this earlier today: MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING. Sadly, it's way too foggy here to see anything ... I was really looking forward to seeing my first aurora.

If the writeup is correct, however, we could get some awesome Northern Lights. The negative repercussions would most likely be limited to fleeting disruptions in some radio traffic. Some phone calls and television feeds may have momentary issues, but even at its worst I doubt all of the doomsday predictions that claim we will arrive back at the stone age from having everything in orbit nuked.

We saw the Aurora in Portland, Oregon Tuesday night last week. Very beautiful.. worth a little
temporary ass-freezing-off.

We got pictures, I posted them .

A great site for information is at [Solar Terrestrial Dispatch]
they also have a photo gallery.

The sun rotates every 27 days.. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens next month. I'd hate to own a satellite right about now.

This is the information from SEC (NOAA): Only a few C class events are listed:
0221 UTC C2.8
0955 UTC C8.8
0930 UTC C6.7

You can easily see all the recent events from this plot of solar X-ray flux: (updated in real-time)

There was a minor X class flare last friday (as you can see from the plot!). This is what the poster may be refereing to:
8/30/02 1329 UTC X1.5 Sunspot 95
It was a limb event and isn't headed our way. The plot shows there were no X-ray flares today!

X class flares are fairly common (once every 2-3 weeks these days...) Usually they are near the limb or backside events and don't effect us other than a little radio interference. We might see an earth directed one from region 95 in the next few days. (But don't count on it!) If there is an X-ray event indicated by www.spaceweather.com, then check this alert page at Solar Terestrial Dispatch. These impact predictions are often very accurate! (Only updated if there is a strong earth directed event!)

This is the information from SEC (NOAA): Only a few C class events are listed:
0221 UTC C2.8
0955 UTC C8.8
0930 UTC C6.7

You can easily see all the recent events from this plot of solar X-ray flux: (updated in real-time)

There was a minor X class flare last friday (as you can see from the plot!). This is what the poster may be refereing to:
8/30/02 1329 UTC X1.5 Sunspot 95
It was a limb event and isn't headed our way. The plot shows there were no X-ray flares today!

X class flares are fairly common (once every 2-3 weeks these days...) Usually they are near the limb or backside events and don't effect us other than a little radio interference. We might see an earth directed one from region 95 in the next few days. (But don't count on it!) If there is an X-ray event indicated by www.spaceweather.com, then check this alert page at Solar Terestrial Dispatch. These impact predictions are often very accurate! (Only updated if there is a strong earth directed event!)

Try this program, dude.. it'll tell ya all kinds of stuff like that....

Conditions are still good today. I just wish these clouds overhead would go away. A large number of people around the globe have seen this latest display.

What this site needs to become is sort of like a Weather Underground for auroras.

Well, there already are other similar services. The Alaska page already mentioned is a good one. Spaceweather.com is a fairly good site as well. And there are also sites for reporting your own aurora observations. The Auroral Activity Page is for world wide aurora observations, while this page at the University of Minnesota is for the midwest of the U.S. and Canada.

--

Wonder if this is what I saw last night? I'm in Catonsville MD, in the light-polluted suburbs a bit south of Baltimore and around 50 miles north of DC. Around 8:30 or 9 pm EDT (which would be 60-90 minutes after sunset), I noticed a reddish glow overhead. Not knowing about the auroral activity, I guessed that maybe some very high, thin clouds were reflecting the sunset, but I couldn't make out any clouds and but it didn't really seem to line up with where the sun sets around here.

Looks like this guy got a better look, around the same time, from a few miles further north and a bit west, away from the city.

Damn! Wish I'd known what this was, I would have paid more attention to it! Probably the only time I will ever see the northern lights from my backyard.