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Backward Sunspot Heralds Next Solar Cycle
GoramFrackinWacko writes "A backward sunspot chronicled on July 31st heralds the next solar cycle, and it looks to be a big one! From the article: 'Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades. Sunspots and solar flares will return in abundance, producing bright auroras on Earth and dangerous proton storms in space.'"
This story reminds me of the recent "predictions" of a potentially devastating hurricane season with greater than average frequency hurricanes and more of these hurricanes being Category 5 (the strongest hurricane defined). On what basis?
On the buzz around global warming and its effect on hurricanes among other things, and the recent "example" season of a record-breaking number of hurricanes. So, naturally the prediction for this season was "lots of big hurricanes". I'm not sure, but so far I don't recall any hurricanes well into the season, but if you watch the Weather Channel, they're almost praying for some... The recent "tracking" of Chris showed almost despondent correspondents (pretending to show relief at Chris' dissipation) when Chris fizzled.
Similarly with sun spots, sun cycles and predictable sun cycle behaviors. We know more than ever about the sun, but the more we know the less we know how to predict what it's going to do. This is an interesting story in that stories about the sun and sun spots are inherently interesting (in my opinion). But, from the article: Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades.... That is purely conjecture -- no more likely to be correct than not. Especially when considering the builtin caveat from the article:
Makes for good news though -- something scary to be afraid of.I, for one, welcome our thermonuclear neighbor's unruliness. (The last time it acted up, we got to see the aurora here in Virginia -- which is VERY rare at this latitude!)
Paleotechnologist and connoisseur of pretty shiny things.
somewhere out there, democrat/republican thinktanks are thinking of ways to tweak this to say it proves/debunks that global warming exists.
..Sun ANGRY! Sun KILL!!
Slashdot Burying Stories About Slashdot Media Owned
it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades
:)
OMG, they were right - pollution & global warming are destroying the sun!
Today's weirdness is tomorrow's reason why. -- Hunter S. Thompson
Just waiting for someone to blame global warming for this reverse sun spot.
-- 3 events that reshaped the world in the 20th century: WW1, WW2, and WWW
Protons on a shuttle
When will we learn to take care of our environment?!
It's god damned terrorists, I tell you. They're trying to take out all our satellite communications. How better to strike at the heart of Americans than to deprive them of their DirecTV, their Dish, they're Cable TV*. Oh, this is truly despicable.
We must hunt them down and stop them from destroying our way of life. Please, if you won't think of the children, think of the parents who will have no TV to use as a babysitter 10 hours a day. Tragedy, I tell you.
*preemptive troll clarification: Yes, much of the content on cable TV still comes in over satellite before they push it to your home over wires.
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
If this sunspot had popped up at those coordinates on Earth, I think we'd actually all be dead, or at least severely discomforted.
"Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
There are a number of sunspot predictions for cycle 24 that call for the weakest (ie. least stormy) sunspot cycle in 100 years. The method predicting a stromy cycle 24 is a new theory and has only been correlated against past cycles. It's predictive value hasn't been demonstrated yet. On the other hand, the precursor method has been used for at least one cycle already. Only time will tell. One of the latest reports is at the address below:
% 20Cycle%2024.pdf
http://www.leif.org/research/Polar%20Fields%20and
Well, you may wish to read up on Dr. Grey's site. He is the gentleman who was able to start the hurricane prediction by noticing a tie to just a few indicators. First off, overall, he has quite a few good years of predicting the storms. 2'nd, he believes that we will see more intense hurricanes. 3'rd, he does NOT believe that it will occur due to global warming, just due to cycles. Finally, a season that has started like this is a bit worrisome, because it does not match predictions that have been rather accurate for several decades now. So, the question is, is this just an anomoly or is there a new player in the prediction factors? Perhaps one that has not been noticed for 3 decades? Or perhaps much longer.
At any rate, if this season continues being this far out of whack, then I suspect that the meterologist such as Dr. Grey and others will be very interested in what is going on.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
I'd never heard of a "backwards" sunspot before, but after RingTFA I understood that; that the sun's cycle is caused by flipping polarities. I thought this was very interesting.
What I didn't get was, how do they KNOW the polarity of the sunspot? There shouldn't be a pattern difference between the two poles, should there? They ought to be equal. Are they using a special sensor on one of the solar satellites? How would you possibly detect the magnetic polarity of even so large a phenomenon from a distance and among the other magnetic and electric fields the sun throws at you?
Well if this doesn't convince people that global warming is for real, I don't know what will.
Maybe 10 meters will open up for DX again.
Anyone else remember all the Slashdot/science stories posted in the last several years? "Large solar storms were imminent and society was at risk, since the storm's radiation would wipe out the computers/circuits/memory/whatever." I remember quite a few, and I would wait and never hear the ramifications of these celestially devastating events. So, Anyone have any more insight into the results, or was this just another case of the news media screaming, "The sky is falling!"?
Well, technically not hurricanes, but typhoons, which are hurricanes hiding out in the western Pacific. China has been hit with a record-breaking number (8), including some serious monsters.
So what part of my lifestyle must I sacrifice in the attempt to prevent this phenomena?
You can mod me down, but you cannot call me a coward.
It'll be fun to watch the environmentalist wackos find a way to blame this on the CO2 emmissions from the US. Maybe global warming can affect the Sun in some sort of cosmic "feedback loop".
Uh Oh, Looks like Solar System Warming is real after all.
You must be new here.
If it wasn't for Dubya and all of his oil-thirsty friends, there wouldn't be an increase in solar activity. If we'd signed Kyoto we could stop this from happening and return the Sun to normal!
Bad humans!
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(If it wasn't obvious, that was supposed to be funny).
"Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives" should be a convenience store, not a government agency.
... hate our freedoms?
Does anybody know if the decrease in the strength of the Earth's magentic field is being studied in regards to global warming? We're due for a flip in the not to distant future and IIRC it's been decreasing for about 150 years. As it keeps radiation from hitting the Earth, one might consider that as it decreases more radiation hits the Earth, causing some degree of increased energy input. One doesn't hear too much about this in the popular science press.
My God, it's Full of Source!
OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
Sure, posting AC doesn't do much for the karma rating, but it improves the turnaround! (and what difference does it make if the mods're sampling Nyquil except that that could make them slower too?)