Slashdot Mirror
TI CEO Says PC Era is Ending
FModnar writes "Texas Instruments CEO Tom Engibous is claiming that the PC era is ending. He claims that wireless Internet devices are replacing PCs as 'the driving force in the electronics industry' and will become even more popular once they are linked to broadband networks. Check out this story at Yahoo! News."
the PC era is *ending* ?? WTF ? The need for a general computing device is *more* than it was before. how the heck is a wireless internet device going to cope with generalised computation like a PC ?
Wireless electronic devices are still FAR off from ever achieving what the PC can do. Since most people are still chained to their desks at work as they have been for the past decades, the PC will still have a place far into the future
besides I just couldn't get into playing quake on a palm.
things such as the creative "web tablet" (I'm guessing something etch-a-sketch looking with a wireless net connect) are supposedly going to become rather popular. I think that one's even going to use the Crusoe! *glee*
Now, it seems quite unlikely that the desktop market will be replaced, but this will undoubtedly become a favorite among the aolers who only actually have a computer for easy net access, and high school/college students who would use such a device for class or research.
Would be quite handy if the wireless connectivity is cheap.
*all is IMHO*
SaintAlex
Observe, reason, and experiment.
Observe, reason, and experiment.
(if you're too dumb, just pray)
"...Linus Torvalds, here are your thirty kajillion IPO dollars. Have a nice day. "
Personally, I like my PC with its real mouse and real keyboard...not that I wouldn't find a use for a webpad, but I wouldn't want to play counter-strike on one.
-W.W.
"Well it should be obvious to even the most dim-witted individual who holds an advanced degree in hyperbolic topology...
Of course this guy is gonna say this when TI has poured tons of money into wireless research. The PC is not dead, but that doesn't mean that wireless isn't going to grow like a madman.
Obviously the PC is not going to disappear from the horizon, but more and more cheap 'specialty' gadgets will enter our lifes. wearing computers, wearing more computers, Steve Mann at UofT (Toronto) Personally I find it cool that you can wear all those computers on you, and noone will even suspect it. the photo to the right However, after working with all these wireless phones for over 3 years, I have realized that they give me headaches. So I dumped my PCS.
You can't handle the truth.
OK, so someone predicted the end of the PC. But I don't see my box going away anytime soon. I actually like those big, clunky things. I don't think tinkering with these new wireless thingies is as much fun as resurrecting an old 486. *g*
Disclaimer: Dont't expect too much sense, I haven't had enough coffee yetI've heard tons of tech evangelists saying that the days of the PCs are ending. Usually, these evangelists have some vested intersted in the net appliance market. IMHO, this viewpoint is utter bull--PCs will undoubtedly remain a focal point for the computing experience for at least several more years.
Sure, you may be able to read email on a cellphone, but its a far more pleasant experience when you are sitting in a comfy computer screen in front of a nice big 19" monitor. What makes PCs so attractive is their versatility. They can do everything from helping you create essays to letting you entertain yourself.
I take the more moderate view on net appliances. Its obvious that PCs and netappliances will coexist for the conceivable future. In the long term, I think that everything will eventually converge on mobile/wearable PCs. Imagine a future with a computer weighing a few hundred grams, with t3 net connectivity, virtually unlimited battery life, and the ability to project a 19"+ eqiv screen directly onto your retina. Yum.
Thus, in short, net apps won't swallow PCs, and PCs won't be around forever. Eventually they will meet in the middle.
IMHO, I don't think there are enough unsued electromagnetic frequencies left to provide wireless broadband access to more than a very small percentage of the population, especially in heavily populated areas. That is, unless we start using the higher and dangerous frequencies like xrays and such. Yeah, this would fix both problems, too many people and not enough bandwidth. -sludge copyright 2000 sludge, all rights reserved all wrongs reversed
Schools, libraries, universities, hospitals and government offices all have invested heavily in PCs and there are no signs of obsolescence. The undeniable fact that PC prices are dropping like crazy is a reason that people are only going to buy more. Frankly, I don't want some little gadget I'm going to sit on and break -- or worse yet -- lose. I like my PC.
Remember the network PC that was supposed to replace our clunky desktop machines?
Mankind has always dreamed of destroying the sun.
He doesn't really say the PC market will fade, but more that the wireless market will increase. This is true. As wireless high-speed communications increase in availability they will increase in popularity, because, face it, people will want such toys. PCs will hold on for some time yet because of things like full keyboards, mice and large monitors. Newer people from the older generation trying to learn computers will tend not toward wireless high-speed gizmos, but more toward the PC desktop market as a [relatively] easy to use method of computing. Personally, I don't think something like the palm-top with an airlan type connection would suit me, as I can not see taking a 3-6 inch monitor seriously... imagine slashdot on one of those?; }return(0);}
#include <signal.h> \ #include <stdlib.h> \ int main(void){signal(ABRT,SIGIGN);while(1){abort(-1)
OFTC: By the community, for the community
I have yet to see a decent lowcost LCD display. I'm waiting for the day when laptops are blisterpacked and cost less than $150.
Since when did TI know jack about PCs anyway? It seems to me that other than the marginal success they had with the TI-99/4A oh so many years ago, they've had pretty much nothing but flops since. They've had virtually no success in the PC market, but have had pretty good success in handhelds (think calculators). So really, how surprising is it for them to predict that the handheld paradigm is the future? I'll bet you that Coke will tell you that soft drinks will be really popular in the future too. Just because the CEO of some monolithic corporation says something, it doesn't make it true. Or newsworthy.
Is it any wonder that Texas Instruments is promoting smaller electronic devices? By saying that they see the future was being wireless web bases, they are putting people in the mind frame to want that type of product.
It's really more of a subtle way of advertising their products and getting people to see their vision of the future. They are simply creating demand for products which are easy extentions of their core business and technical knowledge.
But, hey I'm all for a wireless DSL line running to my 1GHz palmtop!
---------
provolt
HP for me.
What a bunch of bull. Wireless Internet devices replacing PCs? Yeah right. Somebody show me a "wireless Internet device" that you can play Quake 3 on. That is, Quake 3 on a 20" monitor and at 1600x1200 3d accelerated. If that ever happens, then maybe the PC will be dying. However, at the moment, it looks like he might just be making a sales pitch.
personally, I've gone back to calling the "intelligence disabled" "retards"
and calling the "differently abled" "useless cripples"
Sheesh. I need to get some of whatever this guy is smoking. True, wireless handhelds will become commonplace, but they will *compliment* pc use, not *replace* it. Even if you tossed me a dream 2Ghz PDA/whatever, if there's a 5ghz pc out there, you'll probably see me banging away at the pc ;) Digit.
OK everyone.. Lets trade in our Desktops for some flimsy little hand held thing that we might lose in the seat of the couch. Ya, sure! I don't care about small, and connected! I want, fast, Really, really fast. And I don't care what I have to do to get it. I don't want a computer that can be lost in my couch, not unless it is faster, and performs better than my desktop unit! Now, I can see having a portable device for when you can't be at the desk (aka, when you run down stairs to get some more food, then run back up to reload slashdot...) But in all seriousness, you think it would be revolutionary to have a computer that you could sit at your desk, with it in your hand, with a keyboard too small to really type on, or voice recognition taht doesn't work because EVERYBODY is trying to talk to their ultra small hand held unit? I think that I would rather have my big, fast, hot, sweet soundin (Yes, when all 5 fans start up, the damn thing sounds like it is about to fly away :) machine, with more than enough power for ANYTHING I need to do with it.. And guess what, I am STILL as productive (If not more productive) than the person who is taking this portable unit around with them, having to shut it off half way through their work because the battery is dieing.. Where as my endless supply of energy allows my machine to be as power hungry as it damn well pleases!
Don't get me wrong, I would love to HAVE a hand held device that COULD replace my computer! But, I STILL want to have my computer, the handheld would be for when I can't have my computer with me! I don't see having JUST one of these hand held devices..
Ever try surfing the web on your cell phone? You silly thing you!
((Not trying to burst anyone's bubble, but I don't see this happeneing NOW, or for the next few years. Maybe in my lifetime yes, but I intend on living for a long time!))
"I couldn't give him (Bill Gates) advice in business and he couldn't give me advice in technology." Linus Torvalds
I think that within 5 years it will be commonplace for any average home in the US to have one computer for all the high-end needs, and that members of the household will have personal, small, PDAs that they can use for their daily purposes, then interface with the home PC.
So I think the market will change a bit, but I doubt the PC will "go away."
And of course, I'm sure that coders and the like will still want personal Linux boxes hanging around.
"You ever have that feeling where you're not sure if you're dreaming or awake?"
"You spoony bard!" -Tellah
Soon we will see the end of road congestion with the introduction of the flying car.
-some person in the 50s
The web is and probably always will be less secure then a home computer. Would you really want to have all of your personel information avaliable to any script kiddie that downloads the newest cracking program. At least on your home computer you are protected by the number of machines online.
Many places seem to think that most of our computing will be done online. Cnet has stated this repeatedly when talking about new online services. Who really wants to have to use online services to do day to day computing tasks. If you have a problem who do you call. Looks like pay per use will be the wave of the future if this type of thinking continues.
Sure the new devices will be cool and really handy. However don't look to be able to play the newest quake or Diablo on your wireless internet machine.
Most people don't have the large bandwidth that this type of machine would need avaliable. I look forward to having DSL about the same time that everyone in congress learns how to use linux. Broadband wireless should come about five years after that.
Btw how is anybody supposed to learn about programming on this type of machine. When all programs are ran on remote servers on the net it will create a situation where the people owning those servers decide what kind of software you need to run.
Just my two cents worth. I wouldn't trade my two networked computers for a web server with a dsl connection and online applications. I really wouldn't mind being able to download mp3's to play on my portable mp3 player with a nifty wireless connection, though.
Environmentalists are their own worst enemy. ~tricklenews.com
Okay. I can understand why he might say that the PC era is ending. I mean, my Ti99/4a can hardly keep up anymore. We upgraded recently to a massive 10 megabyte hard disk and a 1200 baud modem. You should see slashdot on this thing. It's interesting to see how it remaps the character set to make the various icons like einstein and lady liberty that you "power users" of such computer as the Timex Sinclair take for granted.
However there are two things that my trusty Ti99/4a will have that these newfangled things (that connect to something called the global internet) will never have. First a giant box of a speech synthesizer. Who would think, a talking computer. Second a cassette tape adapter for me to load Tunnels of Doom. God bless technology.
My Slashdot account is old enough to drink...
People use their PCs for more than web surfing, ya know, he seems to ignore that. No one wants Q3 on a handheld with a 4" screen. PCs have become a fixture in the home, and they'll stay that way. Televisions are portable now, do you see the TV set going anywhere?
Esperandi
90% of the world doesn't have a PC now and the PC era is supposed to be ending? Right. I'll believe it when I see all those Indians, Chinese, Indonesians, etc. etc. etc. running Wordperfect on their cellphones.
Life's a bitch but somebody's gotta do it.
Monitor prices didn't even budge for like 20 years until LCD panels came out recently. Unlike everything else in the computer world, the people making monitors are slow as hell at innovating anything, so it takes decades for any prices to come down.
Esperandi
...a keyboard and mouse is no longer the fastest method of input.
Give me real speech recognition, or even better, thought recognition, and I'll take that hand-held, wireless-yet-100 megabit/sec networked, ultra hi-res TI computer and throw away my Pentium IX or Itanium V or whatever I have by then.
This is just an attempt to draw some media attention and get free exposure on the part of TI. It's not exactly a major news-flash to say, "Gee, we think wireless mobile internet is going to be a big thing in the future." Duh. However, the end of the desktop is a story. Predict that, and the media, like the mindless clones they are, will quote you like mad, and give you, your company and your products priceless exposure. Take it for what it is; a bunch of smoke with no fire.
-Goliath
To hell with this wireless/portable appliances crap. Man, i don't know what that guy is thinking.. We're going to be growing computers big and small. With Neural Input/Outputs, and stuff. Quantum Computers man! I want to eat my computer.
Please, every couple of months, for the past about 10 years or so, some CEO somewhere makes the exact same with a few minor tweaks (being exactly *why*) that the era of the PC is coming to an end.
First, it was the RISC computer...
Then, it was the NC (network computer)...
Now, it's small mobile devices and PDAs...sigh...
$10 says that PCs still exist in 5 years, and in 5 years another CEO will be announcing the end of the PC era. 10-20 years?...well, we'll see...
The value of a general-purpose computing device is fairly obvious. It's versatile, upgradable and presumably more affordable than owning a plethora of specialty devices.
For the special-purpose device to displace the generalised one, it needs to offer the things "real" computers don't offer: portability and unobtrusiveness. We are successfully miniaturising all the important components of computers save two: The keyboard and the monitor.
The size of both is constrained not only by the technology but by the user. A keyboard must reasonably accommodate two hands, and the information value of a monitor is directly proportional to its size. Without fundamentally new ideas for both, the portable/specialist device is dead in the water.
There have been some moderate advances in the input category (styluses), but nothing significant in terms of output. Until you can get the display quality of a 19-inch monitor into a 6-inch space, there's nothing doing.
My personal favorite phantasy solution is contacts with an embedded display system. What's yours?
Texas Instruments CEO Says PC Era Ending
TOKYO (Reuters) - Your mom is now replacing personal computers as the driving force in the fat whore industry, Texas Instruments' top executive said on Monday.
Tom Engibous, chief executive officer of Texas Instruments, which is investing heavily in liposuction badly needed by your mom, said demand for her to lose weight will soar when everyone is permanently linked to her surface via her gravitational pull.
This pull will be stronger than the pull of the Earth itself.
``Your mom will not only sleep with anything on two legs, but will introduce brand new perversions that nobody has though of to this day,'' Engibous told a Tokyo seminar on the company's strategy.
``I think the availability of your mom that is available all the time to sleep with absolutely anyone...offers the possibility of sex acts that Silicon Valley'' can only dream about, he added.
With next-generation slut services, users will be able to get head, be dominated, engage in bestiality, and generally perform every disgusting, demeaning act they can think of, he said.
Your mom's services have been offered in local bars beginning in the spring of 1981, and soon will be available globally.
TI, the number one supplier of prostitutes known as "low-class whores" used in motels and other seedy areas, earlier this month announced a 71 percent jump in its fourth-quarter net income, aided by strong growth in desperately horny losers.
The Texas-based company has sold its loss-making porn (pr0n) video business, focusing its resources on more stable and value-oriented whoring industries.
It now holds about 47 percent of the world's nasty slutbag market. That market is expected to grow 30 percent annually over the next five years, according to the research firm Forward Thrusting.
Besides desperate losers, Engibous said he sees large demand for prostitutes for husbands seeking a little excitement at home, and new sex markets such as the booming masturbatory Slashdot-reading geek population.
Mirc is so old school, go get slackware and run x-irc
You see, unfortunately, no matter how small you make a portable device.. you will still need a keyboard for input. and thats why these little wireless gadgets wont go very far. If ANYTHING *ends* the PC era, it will be by Ultra-light, Ultra-slim laptops, which equal in power and performance to your average desktop, and for the same price.. hook one of those puppies up to a global wireless isp, and boom, Slashdot.org anywhere from antartica to the middle of some poor third world country =) LATES. DUFF.
I think a more accurate description of the situation would be the end of the computer revolution. In the 70's and 80's there was the video game revolution. What started in 1960-something on a computer to track nuclear bombs as demo for the public was named pong, and released. The release of games and variety of stories grew, and they were everywhere. A good example is those tables that have video games inbeded so that you can play Pac Man while munching on your pizza. If you look at the list of games for MAME, you'll see that their popularity just exploded. So the video game revolution is over. What does that mean? Awesome video games are still being released, they are moving to new technologies like the games on some cellular phones, there are still technological increases in the field. The real difference is that the new and really experimental uses of game console have for the most part stopped.
/. readers :-) You'll still want your new 16GHz processor and 180GB hard drive, just the hot new technology will be the new 170Mb/s web-pad phone with a projector and 2600x1900 display. I don't think that it is the end of an era, just the end of a technological revolution because a new one is starting.
Another example is the "golden age of radio" which was just before television became popular. All kinds of new types of shows were released, and the format types were being tried together on different stations. There are still new stations, but the formats have really settled in to several categories (Public Radio, Music Radio -- which is subdivided, Talk radio, probably a few more). I would call the 90's, and probably the early 2000's (Is that how to do that?) as the PC revolution. Once the revolution is over, you won't see news stories about how amazing the Internet is, and how awesome computers are. The PC will become common place, and not so exciting, well for non
BTW, am I the only one who was wondering why the company TYCO was talking about computers upon reading the headline?
--Josh
There are exactly 42,935,718 letter sized sheets in a square mile.
he rivals gates in his ability to actually see the sides of metaphorical red barns when they are metaphorically a meter from his face. he is worth every penny to ti.
sleep, sleep.. who needs sleep?!?
We won't be paying anything much for these things. I can't remember where i saw it, but they exist, they consume alot less energy than lcds and they're also just as bright as active matrix.
That doesn't necessarily mean the PC will be used less. It could just mean that he expects the next big IPO craze (dot-com, linux,
Texas Instruments clearly has a stake in the wireless market -- see the last four paragraphs of the yahoo article linked to at the top. I wonder if they're planning to spin off their wireless divisions or keep them within TI.
--
The shareholder is always right.
I look forward to the day when I can insert a 1 GigaFlop anal suppository with a scrotal feedback module it to my rectum. This is the future of computing, and seeing as I am among the few eL1t3 developers working on this very technology, I will make millions. You will all bow to my superior mind after the IPO.
I'm gonna be extremely bored the day that PCs go away. One of the best things about PCs(at least x86 ones) is that I can just go and grab some random parts at a computer show, or even *gasp* comp usa(they are selling cases now, which they wern't a year ago), and an hour later I can have a system that is better than most of the computers I can buy from the dells and compaqs of the world. Sure, I suspose it would be possible to sit down with bare processors, generic lcds and a soddering iron and make my own palm pilot, but that just doesn't seem the same. I'd say there's a good chance you'll start to see internet appliances like the iopener replace the budget sub 1000 dollar PCs, who's primary reason for existing is to use AOL(Cnn, MTV, the NYSE: You won't find those on the internet!), but for the powerhouse applications like 3dsmax and Quake 3, I just can't see my Palm Pilot taking their place anytime soon.
When I sit down in front of my gf's p133 with 1 meg video, I dont notice that its not my PII 450 w/ geForce ddr 90% of the time, but it's that 10% of the time that I do notice that reminds me that power desktops are going to be around for a long time.
---
"What is that sound its making?"
---
"What is that sound its making?"
"It thinks it has a virus, but its actually just linux."
I reacall getting one of those emails full of silly quotations, and I vaguly remember there being one from a TI exec making some dimwitted prediction about the future of computers. Anyone remember what this was?
I don't think wireless Internet access will become popular unless the costs to the subscriber can be greatly reduced. I've read a number of reviews of the devices and the associated services. Most of the devices are brain damaged and the service costs are high. There don't seem to be any open standards for the devices and services.
Mea navis aericumbens anguillis abundat
All this means is that the TI CEO thinks wireless internet devices or whatever are the "next big thing".
:)
Well, everyone is investing in all kinds of crazy stuff hoping it will be the next big thing. Feel free to make a generator for it, using the words "innovative", "wireless", "internet", "hand-held", "touch screen", "Open-Source", "integrated", "internet-ready", "small footprint", "network", "Java", "device", "organizer", etc., etc., etc., blah, blah, blah. We'll all be sick of it soon enough.
Does that mean this will be the next big thing? They sure hope so. We'll see a lot of attempts, and most of them will fail. These devices have their place, and some of them will live on. Some of them might even replace cell phones and pagers, and let you check on your stuff when you're on the road. That's really handy.
But the PC will live on. PC's will always have more brute computational force, display your games prettier, give you more room to surf the web and chat with people, play your music, etc., etc. Technological advances from both sides will be folded together. I can't wait to have a PC with a nice big flat screen, and a few really efficient processors.
But I still wouldn't want to take it on the road, and it's still a PC, just as much as my old Tandy with the monochrome monitor and the full-sized keyboard. Heck, anyone who hasn't been keeping up would just know that PC's are more like TV's now, they're prettier and stuff. Outwardly, they look pretty similar. Screen, keyboard, CPU, etc. I don't think that's gonna change for a while.
Screw paradigm shifts, I'm staying right here.
---
pb Reply or e-mail; don't vaguely moderate.
pb Reply or e-mail; don't vaguely moderate.
First let me admit it up front: MY PRIMARY DESKTOP IS A WIN 98 MACHINE.(This is so someone doesnt yell at me later when I mention palm desktop.)
Anyway, when I need an address, and I am near my computer. I don't pull out my palm pilot, because it is still easier to fire up palm desktop than it is to pull out the palm pilot, pull out the pen, and find the address that way.
Just a thought.
---
"What is that sound its making?"
---
"What is that sound its making?"
"It thinks it has a virus, but its actually just linux."
What if all those Indians, Chinese, Indonesians, etc skip the 'PC era?' From what I've read, wireless networks are taking the rest of the world by storm (places other then the US). For instance, I went on a tour in Ireland a while ago. Our tour guide was a telephone-line repairman (For Eircom, I think). It sounds like a shit job by US standards, but is a respectable job in Ireland. Anyway, their telephone networks are not all that great. Many areas on the island use some old radio system for their telephone communications.
The fact is that almost everybody I met had a cell phone, and nobody had a computer. The internet and email are things that would be of great use to the people. Small and portable web-devices would be much better suited for these people then desktop PCs.
I am not sure of the situation in the Asian countries, but I am sure smaller devices would suit a majority of the people much better.
It's not like they HAVE to own a desktop PC before they buy some smaller wireless-web type device.
The margin on a PC is tiny. It would be impossible for someone to enter the market and achive significant market share. Investors wouldn't support them, since they'd just lose money to the Dell's, Gateway's, and others who have:
None of these limitations apply in the portable/wireless Internet market. Any number of killer, high-margin products remain to be developed and sold. It's a new market, not a "mature" one. TI (and Motorola, and ...) are right to focus on it.
Desktop and portable PC's aren't going away any time soon--they still be made in the tens of millions for years to come. But that's not where money is to be made.
Is TI trying to pump up this new market with this sort of PR? Of course! And as well they should. Trying to start something new in the PC market would be a colossal waste of money.
--
The shareholder is always right.
but I'll say it again. The PC market will definitely expierence a drop as a dominator in Digital Communication, Digital Entertainment and Digital Productivity, but they will not go away. More and more Specialized devices will emerge and steal the consumer that only purchased a PC to fullfill thier specialized needs. Majority of folks that go down to best buy and purchase a computer 'need' it for three things. Writing documents and Scanning Photos. Internet Connection for Email and PHP. Playing Games. Alot of people buy for all of these reasons or just one. When they can buy a Specialized unit that is much cheaper and mobile then why would the lay down the cash for top end PCs. The Other consumers that get a PC to Do all those things, Plus run a business, Do programming, 3d rendering, Hacking, Cracking, Audio Video Mixing, and just to have one becuase the love it, will still continue to pump money into the PC market. However The majority of users don't do this and there are and will be more and more SPecialized devices that are cheeper, do the job better and are possibly mobile, that the majoirty of people will be interested in. Trust me, the average dip HATES his computer. The only reason he has it is becuase either someone told him He needed an email address, or he has soome "specialized" need for his business.
I'd like a desktop like this:
ls --ip6linksOnce IP6 is available, the lan will be but a collection of little parts that are connected to one or more processor units. I can imagine a desktop that has a bunch of tiny gold-plated studs in a decorative pattern, any three of which provide low-voltage power and/or ip6 hot-docking networking to the device(s) that rest upon them.
I'd head to the meeting room with the wireless mini-monitor to read up on the BeOS Matrix II DVD MPAA controversy on SlashDot, rather than fall asleep.
("the lan will be but a collection of little parts" => "well-chosen, brilliant, but total leaflet topic")
[
Everyone says that "wireless internet devices" are the Next Great Thing and it would be nice if that happenned.
He says that broadband is coming. And it's probably true. Eventually.
Also we'll can expect to see the same lack of standards that we currently have with cellular phones. How usefull is the "hand held internet device" if you can only use it with a single service provider?
An open protocal would really help here.
(Of course this isn't going to end the PC era... More people than ever are going to want PC's serving out web pages from their home when cable and DSL connections become commonplace.)
but I doubt they will replace PC's
one scenario for the future (~2010)
Every home has a full featured PC (running linux) sitting in the basement which is connected to the internet by fiber (insert fast connection). Next to that is a wireless access point broadcasting to the house.
You shut the alarm off and pick up your mobile tablet computer from your bedside table (powered by crusoe or similar). You turn on the coffee maker, select the music for your shower, adjust the house temperature, check the night trading on your stocks and then go for the shower. Dressing ritual complete and having finished breakfast with (insert name other than natalie) you decide you need a little workout to get your blood pumping so you don your guantlets (wireless glove like devices) and use the tablet to start a deathmatch with some crack freak from (insert country) which is displayed on your 12'x8' plasma display TV. After fragging a few asses you videoconference with your boss (he called you, tablet-transfer to plasma screen), start the car with the tablet, take 10 minutes to surf the web while purging your lower GI tract (three flushes-autosensing), kiss your wife and then its off to work where you sit infront of a PC! (insert cool interface)
~10 internet appliances/PC. The PC handles all the computing intensive stuff and the appliances handle the interface, little more.
Other scenarios?
no sig.
When people start using anything other than a PC to access the web, I'll start believing that the age of the PC has come to an end.
WebTV and the Palm Pilot(which doesn't even espouse to replace your computer!) do not a new PC-era make. What are the churn rates on WebTV, incidentally?
The fact that "x86 compatible" was repeated around 30 times by Transmeta's Ditzel should be noted.
Yours Truly,
Dan "My Brain Is Not Yet x86 Compatible" Kaminsky
DoxPara Research
http://www.doxpara.com
until i can play quake3 on a wireless/handheld device with some sort of wireless broadband connection pcs are here to stay.
To say that the age of the PC is over is probably like saying that the age of TV ended in the late 80's or early 90's with the rise of the home PC. Of course, there are as many TV's as ever, but they no longer represent the defining technology of an era. How many people here hack their TV sets or digital cable boxes?
I think some people here may be frightened about obsolesence - after all this time developing mastery over a medium, and cultivating arrogance towards those who have failed to get it, could there be a little payback coming down the pike? (Many others, of course, I am sure will be quite able to translate existing expertise to deal with the new environment - I'm looking forward to seeing what happens with IPv6 myself.)
But I do think that the PC paradigm is inelegant. Cables and wires everywhere, big clunky boxes, etc. - from a design perspective and in terms of aesthetics, the whole thing could use a lot of improvement.
I once had a teacher in a class called Rotating Machinery. He started the class by writing the number five (5) on the blackboard, and then asking the class "What is this?"
Then he answered his own question. "It's five years until the last turbine for electric power to be installed."
"Why do we then keep this class then?"
"Well - This number has been constant for the last 50 years!"
I think there is a parallell to the PC's, I also think there is only five years until the last PC is sold. And I also think that this number (five years), will remain constant for the next 50 years!
There will always be people trying to predict the future, and most of them turn out wrong.
Will you go to lunch!
I doubt very much that wireless devices will replace desktop PC's. There are still many developments coming out for desktops, plus the full size keyboard is the fastest method of input available without speech recognition. There are comfort issues as well. I know whenever I work off my laptop that I can't wait to get to the nice full screen of my desktop. I know PDA's are cool, but I doubt I'll use them for anything rather than pure functionality. As others have no doubt said, consider the source. Texas Instruments completely missed out on the PC revolution, although they tried to cash in with the horribly misplaced TI-99. The TI-99 was way ahead of its time in proving why a great deal of people don't like using a tiny computer - it's just plain hard to do. I couldn't envision using a handheld device for anything more than using a GPS transceiver to negotiate my way out of a traffic jam, or to jot down an appointment or quick note. I certainly couldn't work on the Great American Novel while listening to Launchcast and downloading porn...I mean, the latest kernel update. "The network will be going down until I can figure out how to put up with all of you."
bun-fhuinneog agam!
Oh yeah, maybe the reluctance also comes from the fact that the biggest growth areas of wireless isn't the US, but Japan and especially Europe. And we all know that if it isn't from the US, it must be worthless...
************************************************ ***
Being bitter is drinking poison and hoping someone else will die
I think your topic pretty much answers your question.
We will have PCs or some other kind of desktop computers in future. The reason is simple: using office applications (wordprocessors, spreadsheets, ...) in real life is almost impossible with portable/handheld computer. I've been trying to learn to write documents with portable PC and all I've got is wrist pains and headache.
We're going to move towards more services. I use PCs to do services, like mapblast, or lookup titles on amazon.com, to search for the location of Angkor Wat (for a homework assignment), or to grab bits of intelligence from databases... When I can do any of those things from a cellphone, I won't need to use the computer except when creating information. And rarely even then. I can type on anything, bluetoothed keyboards and roving monitors, or palm pilots. Doing somethings will be easier with a PC - bitbashing an image, or doing a lot of file organization/text editting, or creating code/script.
But most people don't do those things.
They get online, check their yahoomail, check location of things, lookup a phone number, consult their addressbook, call someone up, and off they go. And those are the people that matter the most -- it's called marketshare.
-- Ender, Duke_of_URL
output:
why not a laser beam that projects the image into your eye? or a nice headset style deal, like the Sony Glasstron headsets? eventually, direct interface, possibly using nanites.
input:
speech to replace the keyboard. hand sensors or eye tracking could replace the mouse. eventually input could controlled somehow through the direct brain intereface.
input is in my opinion the more difficult area.
We'll still have congestion problems, and they $ c0$t $.
Besides, I don't like the fact that the FCC can control your vehicle remotely. I'd be hardware hacking on that in a minute, and that's going to be illegal.
-- Ender, Duke_of_URL
I live in Europe, supposedly the land of wireless technology. And yes wireless does many things for me that a PC cannot. BUT and this is a big BUT, wireless also does MANY things that my PC cannot. Wireless will not replace my PC, it may supplement it...
Here are some problems with wireless devices. Ever try to do your email on a telephone? It is painful and uncomfortable. Ever try to do calender stuff on a wireless device? Again very painful. The problem is the form factor. And giving the device voice capabilities will not help. The reason being is because with everyone talking it will be pure hell... Even now in Europe there are no-handy (cell phone) zones because people do not want you talking like a maniac. Think about it this, (ok it is a hypthetical comparison), but in Star Trek people only use voice for general operations. People still use a tablet to do most of their work.
Instead what I think will make a big impact are notebooks. More and more I find myself purchasing a notebook instead of a desktop PC. Hence the transmeta folks got it right by targetting the notebook market.
The reason why a notebook will become indispensible is because you will want your word processor and your spreadsheet etc, etc... A web version of a word processor is nothing but a toy. A web based word processor can only be used to write a very simple note, nothing more. The problem lies in the fact that people add comments, style sheets to documents which a simple word processor cannot handle. With a notebook you have everything and a local storage device to boot. It is the ultimate travel device.
I also think the Windows CE subnote books (HP Jornada) are the ultimate simple notebook. They have everything you need, turn on instantely like an electronic appliance, form factor allows it to be used regularly and are dead simple to use!!!
"You can't make a race horse of a pig"
"No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
The growth in the takeup and use of wireless devices in Europe far exceeds the growth in the PC market.
As wireless devices become more powerful and wireless transmission rates increase, there is potential for the PC, as we know it, to be displaced
Microsoft have recognised this, and they have a version of Internet Explorer, called microexplorer, readied for the wireless device market. Where is MicroMozilla, or MicroLinux?
Consider this; Did anyone predict the explosive growth of the PC back in the mid 1980s? Back then, people were saying exacly what some poeple have said in this discussion. "It can't happen". I say, it will happen - and the free software community need to wake up to that fact and do something proactive in order to stake a claim.
I think this press release is all about TI saying:
- Since DRAM and Glue Logic Chip markets are ruled
by the law of big numbers, we cant make money
out of it.
- So we are going into a new and growing market
(mobile, broadband) where cost of developement
and labour really don't affect our bottom line.
(Read as: where the re-inventors of the wheel
are not going to take over the market soon).
So don't misunderstand it as the prediction
'PCs are dead'.
On the contrary. PCs, especially the x86
compatible variety are going to become even more
cheap and very portable as well (thank you
Transmeta, UMTS).
A PC type of computer will be at Your home,
if everybody understands that:
- Only a PC has the ability to _integrate_
different types of digital information.
Multimedia is _stupid_.
You don't want to have a TV, stereo plus a
computer that does DVD and MP3 and email and
fax and so on loosely coupled.
You want to have it integrated truly. And not
waste money on a TV, stereo components, etc.
Integrated Media is the thing to go for.
- Costs for telecommunication will go down.
No matter if its done wireless or not.
Even in Europe.
- IPv6 will be driven by UMTS mobiles. As a side
effect You will get a fixed IP for your PC
easily.
- All in all the PC + cheap telecommunication
will make you your own ISP.
No need for NCs of SUNW or MSFT variety, if
You can administer it / it's easy enough to
administer for "dummies".
Christian
Well since TI doesn't produce PCs (or do they? Never heard of a ti pc), he's probably hallucinating. Yes, smaller, portable computers (pdas, webpads, notebooks, handhelds, whatever) will become more and more improtant, but I doubt few people would want to not-have a PC at home. Let's face it, PCs are just too versatile. You can do anything with them, while portables are always more specialized. You can write your letters and emails with your PC AND play the latest 3d-games.
;)
If nothing else, desktop pcs will always have the advantage of size - you can just cram much more hardware into those things, and power is never a concern.
So yes, desktop PCs will become somewhat less dominant, but to say that their era is ending anytime soon is nothing more than proof of a vivid imagination.
I think this press release is all about TI saying:
- Since DRAM and Glue Logic Chip markets are ruled
by the law of big numbers, we cant make money
out of it.
- So we are going into a new and growing market
(mobile, broadband) where cost of developement
and labour really don't affect our bottom line.
(Read as: where the re-inventors of the wheel
are not going to take over the market soon).
So don't misunderstand it as the prediction
'PCs are dead'.
On the contrary. PCs, especially the x86
compatible variety are going to become even more
cheap and very portable as well (thank you
Transmeta, UMTS).
A PC type of computer will be at Your home,
if everybody understands that:
- Only a PC has the ability to _integrate_
different types of digital information.
Multimedia is _stupid_.
You don't want to have a TV, stereo plus a
computer that does DVD and MP3 and email and
fax and so on loosely coupled.
You want to have it integrated truly. And not
waste money on a TV, stereo components, etc.
Integrated Media is the thing to go for.
- Costs for telecommunication will go down.
No matter if its done wireless or not.
Even in Europe.
- IPv6 will be driven by UMTS mobiles. As a side
effect You will get a fixed IP for your PC
easily.
All in all the PC + cheap telecommunication
will make you your own ISP.
No need for NCs of SUNW or MSFT variety, if
You can administer it / it's easy enough to
administer for "dummies".
Christian
I would agree that this is the ideal thing for the 'PnP Generation'. - But its not for me, or many others. :)
Where would the fun be if you couldn't successfully construct your own pc from components which you purchased from 30+ different suppliers so you could have the machine *exactly* the way you want it?
Perhaps one day the only PC's we can buy will be web appliances (super servers will be hugely overpriced) and that will ultimately be the demise of the hardware hacker - perhaps its just the price we have to pay for being 'Old Skool'
That is until, the immortal day when a slashdotter gets out of bed (as if), turns to his Web Appliance(TM) and thinks:
"I wonder. If I take the back off this.....and get that 'ol UW SCSI interface from over there......and use this lead and.........:)"
Ripping an new rectum in the fabric of spacetime.
Wow, I bet the TI'll be raking in the bucks tho when all those high school kids find out the new TI graphing calculator lets them look at their favorite porn sites in class! :)
TI's just desperate to have a consumer product again, so they'll latch on to anything. I have no use for a PDA in their current form. Give it an eyeglass based heads up type display and an input glove for typing and you'll have my interest. No voice recognition for me tho, until it's sentient I dont want to talk to my computer.
(as deity has already pointed out himself he meant thin-client in the last paragraph)
Anyway, I know I will always have a real PC in my room because as cute as these things are if you're going to do any real stuff on a computer you need at the least a decent sized keyboard and unless Transmeta come up with a cool miniature versions of a pair of hands for me to replace my current obsolete pair with then they can forget about me using their toy at any time other than getting the bus into work (assuming i don't work from home at some stage)
This will start off the same as a mobile phone (get one to be seen because they're the "Wave of The Future [tm]) but end up the way they are now (EVERYONE has one and the novelty will wear off)
a lot of examples fo r MicroLinux can be found here at,
EL/IX Application Programming Interface - an embedded application programming interface
Graphical IDE - cold fusion
Hard Hat Linux - os for embedded appls
mobile linux - allows linux to work on very small devices
however I agree with browsers... very few free open sourced browsers (for embedded systems) can be found (that I know of). The only one I can think of that could be suitable is being produced by Opera (thats not released and it's cli and not open source. I remember reading about this in an interview on
links:
http://www.linuxdevices.com/cgi-bin/news_view.cgi
http://lists.w3.org/Archives/Public/www-mobile/19
http://www.wapforum.org/
http://www.operasoftware.com
peterrenshaw ~ Another Scrappy Startup
The Big Thing (tm) is the new application of new *established* tecnology.
(Like: the net is not new, but the way we use it is)
All opinions are my own - until criticized
What the hell! That's like one word every 3 seconds! The speech record is 300+ and I'm sure I speak well at least 150wpm myself.
The record for typing is 120 I think.
The fastest way to get the Start Button going is to the Windows Key! I HATE people who don't use keyboard shortcuts etc. I'm working in a computer company here and I cringe when I see my bosses trying to enter stuff into Dialog boxes and the like. The insist on using the mouse to change what text box they're typing (when the tab key is a shitload quicker, easy etc.) These people are supposed to have been programming for years! They never hit the enter key (always insisting on fiddling around looking for a box like "Submit" or "Apply" to click on. I wouldn't be surprised if they used a NEWLINE button on a word processor to start a new line (if such a button existed)
What about Ctrl+C,Alt+Tab,Ctrl+V to copy and paste from one app to another.
End Rant
It makes sense to me that the only use for PC's in the future will be programming the apps that sit on the little gadgets. I can't think of anything else that can't be better done by a job-specific gadget. What do people actually use PC's for?
1. Games. We have gadgets for that.
2. Playing DVDs, MP3s and so forth. We have gadgets that do that too, and they'll get lots better, soon.
3. Writing essays/letters/articles/reports. All you need for that is an email gadget with a good text editor and a big screen. Give it five years and they'll be here in plenty.
4. Running specific apps like the one the doctor uses in the surgery, the one his receptionist uses to make the appointments, and so on. All easier when run on a Gadget that talks to a Qube in the cupboard: then the doc can take it on call with him.
OK there's more out there, but the majority of non-coders with pc's at work or at home are doing stuff like this, and they can save a lot of space by using the appropriate gadget.
Besides which, I don't see a reason for people like my dad to spend 600-1000 pounds on a pc when all they really need is maybe 200 pounds worth of assorted gadgets. Which will be far easier to use, since the less you want to do with something, the simpler the UI can be.
Just imagine, your grandma sees your PC and goes "ugh, how complicated", but as soon as she gets home she emails her friend, orders her weekly shopping over the net and settles down to read the knitting newsgroup. Or something.
Oh, and Windows can be entirely replaced by EPOC.
I admit it. I like the PC. For all the crap it puts me through, I like the fact that on a whim I can install Linux or FreeBSD or BeOS, or that aging copy of NeXTStep 3.3 I have lying around. I can traverse the web and try the latest game or the next killer app.
I've also noticed that the "Internet Device" is the computing equivalent of a gateway drug. Someone is exposed, in a small way, to the promise of computing. Too quickly the limited value of a single use product starts to become anoying. They see those around them laughing, joking and talking about the latest addon or site which, their 2 month old appliance doesn't support.
All the people I've know who bought a WebTV as their only computing device have purchased a computer within a year and a half of that initial purchase.
A bold proclomation eminating from the auditory oriface of a company that never lived up to its potential... When does he want me to dump my boxen in Boston Harbor? I might show up if I'm not too busy playing Quake Arena. Does the TI box/chip/vapor product support Quake?
If you really wanted to do a story about trends in the PC market a more likely title would be"PCs get smaller" or "PCs becoming more integrated". The PC industry realized the potential in the sub $500 PC market so there has been an ongoing trend toward lower cost, more tightly integrated PCs. Call them Internet appliances or whatever you like, they aren't the mainstay of the PC industry.
Some of the more recent advances in making PCs more affordable include the integration of modems and video cards into the motherboard; integration of sound cards (sound Codec) and video into the CPU chipset; and the new MicroATX and FlexATX motherboard form factors.
Clearly these new innovations are not a threat to the PC integrator. If anything they are a new market. The costs of assembing a PC solution from these more integrated components is much less and if they choose to compete in the sub $500 market. Though there is some threat from todays manufacturers and distributors becoming stronger competitors.
Concerning the mythic Microsoft X-Box and Sony Playstation 2, the specs on these are out and while they will be competitors in the sub $500 market they will pose little threat to the higher-end markets. Business software is becoming more and more demanding of the PC platform. For the most part high-end video cards and CPUs require more power and generate more heat so small integrated units are poorly suited to this. These net appliances are also designed with economy of scale in mind.
The many, cheap approach is not suited to a rapidly evolving product cycle. If MS or Sony came out with new models of their little boxes ever month (as is often the case in today's PC market) the increased cost of support and risk of defects would make the low-end market cost prohibitive. If anything the PC market is swallowing the WebTV/console gaming market, not the other way arround.
This post is not an exception. It's one thing to be excited about Linux's possible inroads into small devices and stuff but it's another to use marketing as news. I have never been one to complain about Slashdot's editorial choices but, put plainly, this sucks.
I think Texas Instruments is just trying to get noticed here and not accurately predicting what might happen. I work with wireless data and I can't see PC's disspearing. You'll always have somekind of home based system thats better than a mobile system. For one, I hate small crappy keyboards and tiny screens. Therefore your home based PC's will probably continue even if purely for the interface to the human. Also the fact that most PC users like to keep their data on their own hard disks and not on a remote system they dont own. Mobile systems will for most part behind in local data storage, and even if they catch up, do you want all your info on something that you could easily lose or have stolen in the street? Your then likely to have a backup at home. I can see the PC turning into somekind of base station/terminal for your house, and your mobile system only being used when your out and about, or in the garden or checking something quick in the kitchen. For real work your want a nice screen and a relaxing keyboard. Until voice controlled software improves (and i would want it to recogonise every english word, not just a few commands) doing any work on something smaller than a laptop is a pain. I didnt find the apple newton that good at recognising my hand writing either. Ultimately it will be the size of these mobile devices or alternative interfaces which will decide how useful they are to interact with. Molecular sized mobile computing is not useful if the screen and keyboard are only a few molecules wide too. Small isn't always better. Ease of use is. Brad
Indeed, at work we are all clamoring for smaller keyboards and smaller monitors. Hey, I want one of those 3 inch monitors at home! Maybe I can even get a 2 inch! And I definitely want a smaller TV.
Im sorry, but I no more care for webbrowsing in a mobile phone than I crave it for my toaster. It just isnt practical. Yah, sure, order plane tickets and everything straight off the phone. Well, guess what, you have a _phone_. Call them. Its a helluvalot faster than attempting to navigate a micromonitor with itsy bitsy buttons to figure out how their ordering systems work.
Im sure there are a lot of sortof useful things, but a lot of the uses a computer have simply have diametrically opposed demands. And a lot of it would be completely redundant. The mobile device industry is driven by hype, not demand or practicality.
...it was on the sub-ether radio this morning it said your were dead..."
"Yeah, that's right. I just haven't stopped moving yet"
----
Stop worrying about the risks of nuclear power and start worrying about the risks of not using nuclear power.
Which direction do people think the wireless market will take:
I'm going to cop out and suggest a combination of both. Of course the question is moot if the PC finally manages to evolve. Personally I would like to see properly distributed processing. I don't see why the processor in my washing machine should be sitting around doing nothing except for one hour per week!
Phillip.
Property for sale in Nice, France
Also apart from localising it to the cell giving you more bandwidth, every now and again your frequency shifts. This is not just to stop people listening in either. It helps get rid of some signal effect that for the life of me I cannot recall the name. Anyone? if i find it ill repost it. You can tell I dont work on Base Stations. Brad
Unless Palms get really cheap I won't do it... too easy to throw a palm.
The PC got so damn big, not because IBM makes nice boxes, not because MS makes great software. Not because of its usability in the office.
It became so big, because WE the hobbiests choose it as our fav. platform. We could add hardware we liked, we could write software we liked, we could fiddle and poke and learn and play.
And as a side effect, good software appeared.
PC's will NEVER die, because WE the hobbiests want em. Where else can we hack?
Maybe the transmeta appliance will work for me, but I want one with loads of hardware options, and programmability.
The hobby market IS the driving force, not the office market, IMHO.
Greetz SlashDread
The pc era is far from over. We haven't even reached point yet where we will have cmp systems. CMP processors like the MACJ will revolutionize computing! A dual processor CMP system would act like a quad processor system. Just imagine when companies figure out how to fit 10-20 cores on the same processor. The MACJ is able to hold up to 1024 cores on the same processor. I do believe that in reality the PC-is-mainstream-era is only beginning.
I got one of their TI-994/A computers in late '82, and TI orphaned it in September of '83. Hmmm. They may be onto something here.
It's a bit like the industrial revolution. We started with a mill with one single expensive source of rotary power. All the looms and other machines were run from that source. It was ever thus, until the elecric motor came along.
Let's try that again
It's a bit like mainframe computing. Our organisation had one single expensive source of computing power. All computing was carried out on that box. It was ever thus, until the mini and the desktop PC came along.
Let's run that again
It's a bit like the PC. We started with a single PC as a single expensive source of personal computing power. All our M$ applications (or Linux stuff) were run on that PC. The next logical step is for individual users to end up with multiple computing devices for different tasks. Some portable, some not, as technology makes them affordable.
Stephen Hawking has written another book. It's about time as well.
a lot of people have been saying that the PC era is coming to an end. Be it Sun with their network computer vision, be it IBM and their mainframes, be it whoever. Not that I dislike mainframes and such, its just that the PC has proven itself to be a kind of versatile device nobody wants to miss. Network computers and such, yeah great, and we will surely be more "wired" (or actually wireLESS?) in the future. But the PC paradigm is unlikely to leave any time soon. Mediocrity survives, not the best technology.
nc
I will not buy this software, it is scratched
Whether or not PCs die out, in the past year or so, and increasingly so in the future, video games have required specialized gaming hardware. It used to be that I could go over to a friend's house where their parents had bought a computer for word processing and install eight or nine games, and they would actually become interested in computers.
These days, games cannot be an afterthought when buying a computer, sadly. It was Tim Sweeney who commented that engines are going to have to become even more scalable, because the 'home user PC' and the video gamer PC are really starting to get a vast difference between them.
I think this could be a major curbing point for PC game evolution, if engines do not become VERY scalable.
Scalability isn't the be-all end-all solution, either. While you support features that can be turned off, they can't really be directly related to gameplay. For example, in Quake 2, the OpenGL renderer on my 3DFx ran in 16bpp, but the textures were all 8bpp. (The extra bittage was used for coloured lighting.) The 8bpp software renderer held the high colour renderer back.
Such is the price of scalability.
As a worker at TI even I find it Hard to belive the Pc age is ending. One of the things that I have learned while working here is that Engibous is A business man and really has very little Idea of how the computer market works. We make DSP chips that go in to mobil phones and other wireless devices. This is more than likely the reason for his statment. We also make the chips that make DsL work on Pots lines. Engibous is really just trying to get more people to notice wireless products. (Oh! we no longer make calculators) Skinnydaddy Eagles may soar but weasles don't get sucked in to jet engines.
and a TI 99/4A's gonna fly outta my ass.
The PC is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. Mobile connectivity is only one of a range of disruptive technologies which are set to finish the PC in the home/consumer market.
The future of personal computing is most definitely thin. The Digital STB will replace the PC in the Home, because they're simpler and cheaper, the essential qualities of a disruptive technology. Why would a consumer pay a £/$1000 for a PC or a £/$500 for a WebTV box when they can get an STB or games console £/$200. STB's in fact don't even cost that to a consumer, because the business models for Interactive services charge for services not for the Box, to the customer the STB is apparently free.
The PC can only compete in the high end markets, where the function is more important than price and these markets are not in the home. Combine this with the fact that the majority of current Netizens are rich by world standards;
Just how is the PC supposed to compete with a Free STB ?
The PC will be under constant attack from the low end markets. Games Console & STB will eat into the lower margin mass markets which the PC manufacturers will be unwilling or unable to defend. The incumbent PC manufactures will enjoy smaller bulk discounts, the relatively cost of a PC will climb until home PC markets will cease to exist in any really way.
The laptops are already being replaced by thin client phones and PDA's. A consumer can share a common address space for all their client devices with their service provider, this will include a common communications message space which includes email, fax and mobile and voice mail.
The convergence of Games Consoles, Digital STB's and mobile devices is accelerating this trend.
In the same way that the Big Iron was replaced by simpler/cheaper Mini's, which where subsequently replaced by a simpler/cheaper PC's. The PC will be superseded by a convergent Console/STB.
whatever happened to the TI Avigo?
I plan to use a knife and cut through your asshole to the other side.
So suck my ass. Asshole.
In the future, everyone should be able to go down to their basement and see nothing but big blue, wall to wall. Houses should feel alive, and power bills should be enourmous. Of course, every room in the house needs an EBSDIC-compatable terminal in the corner.
This is just another in a long line of pie-in-the-sky announcements by fools who know little or nothing about what they're speaking about. The best comparison here would be with Sun Systems, whose CEO (can't remember the name)announced the death of the PC in favor of dumb terminals several years ago.. still hasn't happened. Recently he complained that the industry still doesn't realize that people really want dumb terminals... all these millions of people with PCs should stop fooling ourselves... we want dumb terminals!
"The Reports of my Death are Greatly Exaggerated."
:) (Europe comes to mind)
I think that says it best. Granted, wireless is where the next big boom in growth will be, mainly in areas where Phone service either sucks, is expensive, or both.
In the US, we are used to cheap phones, and are now getting spoiled on cheap broadband access. Being mindful of our neighbors can't hurt us.
What's the reason a lot of people get a computer today? To get on the internet. It was one of the driving forces behind the iMac and the resurgance of Apple.
For people like you and me, the PC is here to stay. For people like my Aunt & Uncle, both sets of grandparents, and a couple cousins, the PC and iMac do not make sense for what they desire, easy to use email. Face it, there are more people like them than us.
All of them are now using an internet appliance, i-opener, to access the net. It is a $300 system, flat-screen with the "smarts" integrated in a single, compact unit. The keyboard has an integrated mouse which is very easy to use(my grandparent's used to get online using a PC I built for them, they had lots of trouble with the mouse, and would get confused if they overshot and clicked on a background window). It stays on all the time, periodically calling up to get email, local weather, and news. Because of this, they don't have to tie up the phoneline to read their mail or check the weather and news. A green LED lights up on top to tell when email has arrived. The system is set up to be very easy to use. The function keys don't say F1-F12, they have little pictures, such as a cloud to check the weather, and an envelope to do email.
People and their PCs is analogous to people and their cars...
Paperless office.
If Intel said it or if Microsoft said it, or even if Apple said it, it might carry some weight but most of TI's PC products have been abortions from the start. Their x86 chips flopped before they shipped, they make great DSPs but not too many PCs carry them. What else does TI do for PCs?
It appears to me that TI has never and still doesn't fully understand the PC market. PCs are changing and people are needing more than one or 2 computers for a family but I think the PC is going to be around for quite some time.
This is simply a ploy to get people with cursory knowledge of tech stocks to invest in TI.
Tom Engibous is paid to raise the value of TI stocks. He is not a prophet.
I think I can find a better vision of the future of computing here at /. than I can from some suit. Of course, I have to dig through a lot of chaff first, but...
cheers,
Big IT companies got where they are because they jumped on the new paradigm as it was getting big. IBM killed earlier competitors by understanding the mainframe market, MS and Compaq killed IBM by understanding the PC market, and there are a hundred examples in smaller niches of the IT industry. Big companies are understandably paranoid about being replaced (call it Zeus syndrome--he defeated Chronos, so he's paranoid about his own children).
The point is, buying into new technologies like set-top boxes and wireless hand-held devices, toaster-ovens with Fast Ethernet, etc., won't do you a bit of good before the market is ready for them. WebTV, AFAIK, is dying, largely because PC prices crashed right after MS's investment in WebTV. Who would buy a set-top box for $250 when you can get an eMachine for $400?
Which brings me to my real point: there's something compelling about PCs. They're big, heavy, until recently they were ugly and pricey, they are notoriously difficult to use, and they become expensively obsolete in two years. Why in the world do people continue to buy them?
The reason is this: the longer people own PCs, the less likely they are to switch to a stripped-down version like WebTV. Five years ago, when a PC cost $2000 and many people only used them for web, email, and simple word processing, a WebTV for $400 (the original price) would have been attractive. Now, PCs are much cheaper, and most people have become accustomed to some of the additional functionality--games, spreadsheets, low-end desktop publishing--that WebTV can't provide. Over the next few years, the market may become less amenable to cheap, stripped-down devices, because people will become more attached to the extra stuff they can do on a real PC.
Sun has been celebrating the death of PCs for a decade now, and it hasn't done them an ounce of good. Proclaiming the new era has been fashionable forever, and companies like to do it because it sooths their Jovian paranoia, but PCs are only becoming more ubiquitous. Until non-PCs are sufficiently small, cheap, intuitive, and functional that they can replace virtually everything we want in a PC while adding everything we want in a hand-held, desktops will remain entrenched.
In effect, in addition to its own modest offline processing power, your portable is a thin client to a real computer doing incredibly powerful middleware stuff.
Huge processing power and huge bandwidth require heavy equipment, lots of electricity, and wires to carry the data. If your PC sits at home doing all the fancy stuff for you, we solve two problems at once: how to manage unpredictable wireless bandwidth and how to handle the huge processing requirements of tomorrow's software.
--
This is not my sandwich.
You're assuming a demand which might not exist. The rest of the world is not like the US. The majority of people in India and China are involved in manual labor. Word processing and spreadsheets mean little to somebody who's stuck in a field or a factory all day. Even a cheap PC ($400) + internet access is unattainable for most people in developing countries. A cellphone with email provides a lot of value, especially when you consider how poor the telephone infrastructure is in those countries. A $50 phone with email and web access would be very attractive to those who just want to keep in touch with friends and read a little news.
The future is plastics!
If it has a 19" screen, chances are it's not a PC, it's a workstation.
Ah, yes. Fun with buzzwords. I kinda like playing everything from Quake 3 to 5or6 muds at the same time on my 19" monitor.
The word workstation is an old mid 80's ideology intended to separate consumers from producers. The only thing that will drive Palm, notebook, and wireless devices is comfort. That's it.
It's the middle-of-the-road, consumer PCs you find at Best Buy that we should be ushering out. These are the equivalent of a 1979 Malibu six-cylinder, too underpowered for its size, too big and gas-guzzling to be a daily driving car, but since it was the smallest and cheapest thing
on the showroom floor, you drove it home. Consumers buy these midgrade or lowgrade $1000 machines basically because that's all Best Buy has.
Wrong again. When I grew up I'd had it with people telling me that some day I'd goto graduate school and learn about computers. I said fuck it. My parents got me a cheapo machine I built into a monster. Then I got another cheapo. Souped up that baby good. Finally, I know enough now that I should have gotten an AMIGA. Would never need to soup those up. B-U-T-ful.
Average users don't really like PCs (or Macs). They're big and bulky, they are FURNITURE (they take up a whole desk), they're slow (no other appliance in the house takes 2 minutes to start up), and they never really quite do what they want. They'd rather play video games and watch movies on the TV, do their checkbook at the kitchen table or on the desk in the bedroom (using some smaller portable unit), and sit in the easy chair to surf the Web.
What are you? clairvoyant? DIVX died because people do not want the Net to become TV. Push technology died also for the same reason. Booting is like preheating. People have no problem doing something else while it gets ready. And frankly I have no idea what you're talking about. I'm up and running in under 30 seconds on my Cyrix 133 so called 3 year old out of date system that still seems to be chugging along quite well.
The modern PC isn't that far removed from an old room-sized mainframe - the PC often expands to fill the room it's in. You can't bring it to you,
you must go to it, which means it, its data, and all the media you see or hear on it must remain forever trapped in whichever room you put it -
which in most households, is never the same room as the entertainment center. You pay the price for its flexibility by concentrating much of your
activities in that room, at that desk.
I live in a modest $100K home. The entertainment room is the same as the computer room. If it wasn't I'd get a wireless LAN set up in minutes thanks to Mandrake 7.0 I have no hassles. Plus realize you're grabbing at straws. You're blaming the PC because you put it some place other than the TV room? Get a grip. Like I said before it's a matter of comfort and in the last 30 years the industry has proven they can't mix business (coding) with pleasure (FOX-drooling).
Laptops aren't the answer for this - they're downscaled PCs, saddled with the additional limitations of battery life, tiny screens, sick
keyboards, and high price tags. And they're the solution to the wrong problem - they take the PC on the road. I don't want to take a PC on the
road, I want to take it to my easy chair.
So take the laptop top your easy chair. I don't get your point. As for battery life, heh. If you knew some of the boneheaded lazy designs for mobos you'd see why it's like that.
.
.
.
Therein lies the revolution.
There's no revolution. It's the same old cycle. Two parallel ways to make money. Comfort the users. Empower the builders. I say do both for both.
The message on the other side of this sig is false.
My boss, who can't listen to a complete sentence about computers without annoyance and says he can't learn to use a computer because he "can't work the mouse"... this week told me he wants to get a "portal" so he can use the internet. I said, you want a ...what?!! He meant he wants a wireless appliance, so he can skip the learning curve and just click a button that "knows" what he wants and just *be* there on the net. That's why wireless is exciting to CEOs like this one... cause lots of ordinary people feel exactly like my boss... I don't, but I still want to be ambulatory with the net. That doesn't mean I'll toss my PC out... Wireless doesn't have to replace PCs...just be something really handy in addition, the same way radio wasn't killed by TV... I wrote an article on ebooks in the current "Vocabula Review" that, at the end, talks a bit about how wonderful to be able NOT to have to sit at the PC for certain kinds of things, like reading an ebook and the article towards the end shows an example of the advantages of being set free from the PC. If you continue the picture in your own mind, and start thinking of real-life uses for wireless for everyday people (the article was only talking about what ebooks can soon or already do that print books can't and was targetted toward non-tech-oriented writers and epublishers), I think you'll understand what the TI CEO is visualizing.
...in fall 1983 when they started dumping their formerly $900 pc's for $49.95 - it was 16 bit too!
One problem may have been software authors had to submit their work to TI for approval, amongst other thing....
This Ancient History factoid brought to you by:
Ye Olde Phart
Zen Master Jack
try { do() || do_not(); } catch (JediException err) { yoda(err); }
No mod points currently so just a comment to
direct readers to it.
1000 SlashDot sigs
--Alex
This is a signature virus...
Can't tell you that, but what I can tell you is that the sites whose stats I have access to showed WebTV's share of user sessions increase up until about mid-1999. After that, although the total number of WebTV users has increased slightly, the market share of WebTV appears to be declining -- other platforms (including handhelds) are increasing more quickly.
I don't think that handhelds can "replace" PCs -- however, there are a substantial number of people out there who don't want a PC and are fairly sure that they won't ever want one. They don't need what a PC provides, and find it too complex to use for the simple communications capabilities that they might be interested in.
The "internet appliance", whether it physically resembles a PC or a PDA or a cell phone, is a good item to try to sell to these individuals. The PC, by dint of trying to do everything -- office tasks, games, video, audio, print production, filing, communications -- is not a truly usable consumer appliance for a vast number of people. Too fussy. Doesn't work properly half the time. You need the help of a PC hobbyist if you run into trouble, or you need to make multiple phone calls and multiple visits to a service depot.
I don't think the PC era is ending any time soon, especially if Microsoft is still around peddling it's wares. Most of you are familiar with the axiom "Intel giveth, Microsoft taketh away". But it depends what you're doing. What I think would be useful would be using VNC on a handheld device. Yes, I know there's a Palm port for it, but I mean a colour, really crisp display so that in essence you'd could access your desktop from literally anywhere (given sufficient progress in wireless comm, of course). Also blatant spin, as TI sells stuff for wireless, not PC's. Duh...
There is always someone out there predicting the "End of the Domanant Way of Doing Things(tm) as We Know It". Usually it boils down to "this thing that I am selling will overshadow all else until nothing is left".
Yeah right!
Network Computers have alot of hurdles to overcome. The biggest one is that Quake III Arena does not play on it. (As well as being able to buy a complete system for less than the price of a network computer.)
These pundits are missing the main thing that people want from computers. They don't want to just surf the web or buy stuff on-line, they want to play games. None of these boxes do very well at that. (Unless you consider a Playstation a "network computer".)
This is the fourth or fifth prediction in the last few years I have seen of the "Death of the PC". (I have seen more if you go back 10 years.) It is almost like the continual predictions of the End of the World. I will believe it when I see it.
"Trademarks are the heraldry of the new feudalism."
I like azzz
The PC, that popular geek toy from 80s and 90s is dead. The PC was pronounced dead by Dr. Tom Engibous today during an emotional press conference.
Dr. Larry Ellison concurred, "Not only is the sucker dead, it's a miracle it hung on for so long. It would still be alive today if only it had taken my advice." Ellison went on to blame the PC's personal physician, Dr. Bill Gates, for its untimely death, claiming that under Gates' care the PC had become bloated and unusable. Dr. Gates denied the charges claiming that the PC was not dead, it was merely evolving into a higher life form. "With my patented Win32 snake oil, the PC will continue to thrive for years to come.
The PC's funeral was chaotic. The PC's coffin started to open as Dr. Ellison delivered its eulogy. Seeing this, Dr. Ellison leapt on the coffin and tried to sit on it to keep it shut. "Pay no attention to that," Ellison was quoted as saying. "That's just an autonomic reflex."
The mystery of the death of the PC has deepened as many people claim to have seen the PC since its alleged death. In fact police officials have refused to investigate the case claiming, that the PC is still alive. "Why I just consulted my PC to run a background check on a suspect," said a local police officer. "Every couple of years those same guys get together and try to fake the poor machine's death. I don't know what their problem is but if I were a PC, I wouldn't turn my back on those guys for one minute."
In addition to the police denials doctors at the Transmeta clinic claimed today that the PC is not only alive but is in fact one of their patients. "We just had Dr. Torvalds check the PC out yesterday," said the clinic manager. "He prescribed some Penguin juice for the bloating, but otherwise the PC is just fine."
Dr. Steve Jobs was busy staring at his own reflection and declined to comment.
Does this
Basically it will be a pc that is fully integrated into the house runs 24/7, is connected to the TV, Stereo, Phone, Cable system. It manages it all can be acessed from a monitor station or a tv. All home items are programed by this device and it controls heating and cooling. There is one main unit built into the house and seperate pods or small pc type units. OS of choice Something similar to Mac OS X with many things built in. Also offers a security system to the house . It also has to cost under 15000 and be very upgradeable. Records cd's and does everything a pc can do acts as a DJ and a Karyoke machine. 1 in every home
Playing quake on a cell phone? Writing code on a palm? Watching a movie on a wrist watch? Wow, now thats a big screen.
This guy is retarded.
This one definitely deserves to be a 5, you stupid moderators. He was complimenting you.
We've been hearing shit like this from Sun and TI for years now. We all know how successful Sun's been with THIER "NET PC's". They haven't really done anything but demonstrate how nifty they crash during demos. Besides, people want MORE options, not less.
Dont be to sure that the forces that be won't try to put an end to Independant stand alone PCs!!! It has been a long time goal of the secretive "Illuminati" orders that run much of Big Government anf Big Business today to set up a ONE WORLD DICTATORSHIP. It is my belief that this whole trend for "Internet Appliences" Network Computers and ASP based RENTAL software and online storage space is a part of a plot to capture control of the Internet by these "Illuminati" orders as part of a first phase of setting up such a state by FORCING us into a world network computing environment for all of our business and computer work. It is also my belief that we should fight this by NOT using devices such as Sun Microsystem's Star Portal Online versions of StarOffice (the CD Rom and download versions are OK because you can load them on your hard drive and they do not FORCE online usage. We dhould also refrain from using any other major online applications that may come up in the future, free or rental. By telling these people and businesses that Insist on bringing FORCED Network Computing to us NO in no uncertain terms by NOT using their web based applications we hav a real chance to put a stop to the WORST DICTATORSHIP OF ALL time without violence.
I wouldn't put much stock in anything this blithering dolt has to say about future trends in technology. He couldn't see past his nose with a telescope. I used to work for him at TI. TI used to be a pretty diversified company. Somehow Incubus rose to the top and sold off every division except his own progeny, DSP chips. Trouble is TI doesn't know how to compete. They do well only when they have a monopoly. So when Sharp came out with a chipset that was almost as good as the TMS320 line, but much much cheaper, TI got clobbered. This coincided with the time investors realized revenues were only skyrocketing because huge chunks of the company were being sold off. Earnings took a sharp turn and TI stock price took a dive. I cant believe Tom End-of-us still in charge. They say large corporations are like septic tanks. Over time, the bigger chunks float to the top. Disgruntled Ex-TIer.
Hey Mr CEO TI: -Where did the AI stuff go? -Where did the Speech Recon go? -Where did the TI99/A go? -Where did the first digital Watches go? ..and what have you been doing with DSP? Ok, so you do a lot of Dept of Defense stuff..now your an expert on wireless? Don't his personal, but TI has never demonstrated it knows what it is doing in the market place. So you say wireless? Do you really expect me to pay through the nose ( ie: $0.30/ minute)for Stock Prices, Weather, Baseball Scores on a 2" screen? Hey TI! git out of Texas and smell the roses...
The flame about CRT displays contained more heat than light. I've worked on the design of CRT displays and am aware of the difficulties in developing: * video amplifiers with the requisite voltage swing and bandwidth * CRT electron guns that combine the beam current density and low capacitance so that the above amplifiers can drive them (remember - a volt/nS is a mA/pF). * Deflection yoke drivers that can get the spot back across the screen in 5 uS or so. Those drivers are handling several amps and switching the better part of a kilovolt - and at a multiplicity of scan rates! * Deflection yoke designs that can hold the deflection centers close enough to ensure color purity even over a screen width of about 2000 triads. * High voltage supplies that are stable and reliable (few people know how hard that is). And the list is far from finished. CRT monitor design is the fusion of a lot of different demanding disciplines, and the performance keeps going up and the price keeps going down. CRT displays may be replaced someday, but there are many reasons why existing flat panel and projection technologies leave a lot to be desired.