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ESR: Microsoft Could Collapse In 6 Months (updated)

mjh writes: "ESR gave an interview in which he says, 'I now think that Microsoft monopoly is going to collapse for other reasons in the near future.' He basically says that the drop in PC prices will cut into the margins that PC sellers can afford, and that they'll drop the M$ tax, and replace their bundled OS with something cheaper, like Linux. This was a very interesting interview." It's a good read, and ESR seems to be mellower in it than in some other venues (and to me, that makes him more persuasive than usual as well). However, the idea of Microsoft collapsing because of lost OEM-license dollars seems pretty stretchy -- they make money in a lot of other ways, and have a nice war chest to draw from if licensing losses should become anything like a crisis. Updated by timothy, 13 Dec, 5:52GMT: It's Microsoft's monopoly which ESR said could collapse, not the company per se. Apologies for the poor phrasing.

112 of 344 comments (clear)

  1. Can you FEEL the POWER!!! by swordgeek · · Score: 2

    ESR may be a good programmer, a good project manager, and a decent guy. However, he's also an evangelist. He truly believes in Linux as the Saviour against the Great Satan of MS. As a result, most of his commentary and predictions are readable only as light entertainment.

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    "People who do stupid things with hazardous materials often die." -- Jim Davidson on alt.folklore.urban
  2. Re:People still want MS by DrCode · · Score: 2

    On the other hand, Senator Slade (the "Senator from Microsoft") won't be coming back.

  3. Re:Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerat by Black+Parrot · · Score: 3

    > Microsoft keeps up with things; they aren't about to lose their monopoly due to changes that were expected (cheaper, smaller, faster) but will rather require many more unexpected events to appear on the horizon

    That tiny little thing called the internet blindsided them. And all this time later they still have a "standalone system" mentality that bites them in the ass now and then. I honestly think they can't understand why the e-mail virus problem won't go away.

    However, I think the fall of Microsoft, whenever it comes, is going to come from below. That is, when investor faith in MS's infalibilty pops, their stock pyramid will pop shortly thereafter. Sure, they've got a huge bankroll, but they don't seem to know how to use it for anything other than keeping their stocks afloat. With the kind of money they've been sitting on for all these years, they could have revolutionized computing for real, if only they had any interest in doing so.

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    Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
  4. After attempting to set up a printer... by scrytch · · Score: 2

    I don't believe Microsoft has a thing to worry about. My. Freakin. God. What a mess.

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    I've finally had it: until slashdot gets article moderation, I am not coming back.
    1. Re:After attempting to set up a printer... by SoftwareJanitor · · Score: 2

      Hmmm... My LaserJet and Panasonic laser (HP LJ IIp clone) set up and print just fine under Red Hat, SuSE or Mandrake. For that matter so did the old DeskJet Plus I used to have... What kind of printer are you talking about, some GDI based printer?

  5. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by jafac · · Score: 3

    I wouldn't say "no problems"

    People still aren't buying it. The W2k adoption rate is still like 1/3 what the analysts were saying, and 1/10th what Microsoft was hoping. ActiveDirectory being the only compelling feature, and at the same time, a compelling reason NOT to upgrade (due to the added overhead and cost to implement).

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    These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
  6. Flawed Analysis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    The microsoft monopoly of the os market will continue as it exists. There are several reasons why this is true:

    1) The average cost of a top of the line PC is not really dropping. Sure Pentiums and x486 are cheap now, but the computers everyone wants to buy are still in the $1000-$2000 range. Next year that range will be the same, it will just feature Ghz Pentium 4 and Athalon systems with faster memory, next generation NVIDIA cards, etc.

    2) There is pressure for cheaper systems, but that will be absorbed somewhat by the Xbox and other consoles. There will also be a market for older/slower/less capable computers, but most of the people buying those computers will be computer newbies, and will require much handholding. In part, this means they will want to use what everyone else is using.

    3) Applications take a long time to write. Even if there were a moratorium on all new applications for windows, there are currently enough out there to sustain Windows as a viable choice for much longer than 6 months. WINE might help somewhat, but without killer apps, people will just go with Windows because it's easier and the support costs would be lower than doing both.

    4) Businesses will still be using Windows PCs in 6 months, and a large chunk of the home PC market revolves around people using windows because that's what they are used to from work.

    5) Microsoft has lots of money available. In the worst case they could just lower the price of the OEM licenses to forstall anyone using anything else. And give discounts for not shipping competitor's products, bundle more software for the same cost, etc.

    6) Even if Linux were ready for primetime and enough of the applications and games were finished, it would take more than 6 months for the PC industry to switch focus and start pushing the new systems.

    My expert opinion:

    Windows will continue to dominate the market it has right now, and MS will use that position to try to leverage other markets as it is currently doing. It is conceivable that eventually there could be enough free applications that Linux would take over that market in a relatively short timeframe, but that will not be within the next six months.

    As for cheap PCs, the OS is still a relatively small cost of the overall system. The most expensive component seems to be the display, and I don't expect a revolution in settop boxes and whatnot until TV screens can display readable text, or computer monitors shrink in size, become much cheaper, and TV capable as well. Theoretically HDTV will help, but the economics of a $5000 display and a $300 computer don't make sense for that trend. Those who insist that x486 computers have plenty of compute power for reading email are encouraged to go buy one at a garage sale to remind themselves why there will continue to be demand for more computational power.

    It is not unreasonable that new markets would choose to go with free software. This would include new geographic regions not already entrenched by windows, new demographics of computer users that didn't have a need for current computers, or new sets of devices for which the benefits of using MS are not clear. Current markets should not change much for the forseable future.

    apply

    * I will not login to every website on the internet.
    ** The moderation here is terrible, this will probably sit at -1 forever.

  7. House of cards by nagora · · Score: 3
    The cards at the bottom of a house may not carry much weight each, but take one away...

    RMS is wildly optimistic but, OTOH, the loss of OEMs to Linux (or any other OS other than the MAC) would be the beginning of the end. As many people have pointed out, they don't get a huge chunk of their income from the MS tax but thing about the implication of machines having some other OS loaded at sale: no more Office sales! That is such a big hit to their income that it could bring them down.

    A similar argument holds for the future .NET: take away IE and the default bookmarks MS will no doubt be putting into it and were does .NET go?

    This just underlines why they are so keen to force OEMs to put Windows on their machines "or else": whree Windows goes Office follows. Where Linux goes StarOffice or KOffice follows and Bill doesn't make any money on them.

    TWW

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    "Encyclopedia" is to "Wikipedia" what "Library" is to "Some people at a bus stop"
  8. Less image-heavy version by Corbet · · Score: 2
    Yes, the interview is image-heavy. We've made a version which is rather lighter for those who don't want to see all those pictures of Eric - use this link to get that version.

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    Jonathan Corbet, LWN.net
  9. Uh-huh. by InfinityWpi · · Score: 2

    In related news, the flaws in the electoral collage will mean that the United States will never survive past the year 1879. Catholicism, based on a single book, will not last past 'The Dark Ages'. And the sky is falling. Thank you, goodnight, and have a pleasant tomorrow.

  10. People still want MS by enterfornone · · Score: 5

    What the vendors do won't change the fact that most people still want MS products. MS is the "standard" on the desktop, if you want to share office documents you need MS products, if you want to play games you need MS products.

    Vendor support for Linux will not happen unless a large percentage of the general public wants it.

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    enterfornone - logging in for a change
    1. Re:People still want MS by RayChuang · · Score: 2

      You are so correct!

      The problem with Linux is that due to the plethora of competing standards floating around for Linux--not to mention being often quite tricky to configure--Linux will not become the desktop "de facto" standard that Microsoft now enjoys.

      Besides, with George W. Bush now President-elect, we may never see Microsoft broken up, so MS will continue to be a strong company in the long run.

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      Raymond in Mountain View, CA
    2. Re:People still want MS by handybundler · · Score: 2

      People who only know racism say the same thing. They were brought up that way so they don't know any thing different. Sad, isn't it? Kind of like this same situation.

      Perhaps turning on a light at the end of the tunnel will show people that there is more to life than one type of OS. Look at OS X built on BSD. I see the wave of the future. Two heavy hitting conglomerates pooling resources to show people that computers do step beyond M$.

      Again, they only choose M$ because it's the only thing they've ever known. They certainly did not have the choice when they set up their desktops.

      Here are your choices. Window$...and Window$.

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      a/s/l here. Sorry, adding domain tags to your s
    3. Re:People still want MS by Chalst · · Score: 2
      George Bush doesn't have the power to stop the case against Microsoft.
      The only thing he can accomplish (at a big political cost) is to
      withdraw the DOJ, but the State DAs (the coplaintiffs with the DOJ)
      would still pursue the case.

      Bush has also stated in an interview (in April) that he would not
      interfere in this case. Remember that Reagan when he was elected to a
      much stronger political position, and with a much stronger views
      against anti-trust than Bush, did nothing to stop the breakup of AT&T.

    4. Re:People still want MS by SoftwareJanitor · · Score: 2

      What the vendors do won't change the fact that most people still want MS products.

      Do people really? Or do they just not really have much of a choice when they go to CompUSA or Best Buy? Is it just that people, not knowing much about computers buy Microsoft's products because they are doing 'what everyone else does' rather than because they are actively choosing them? A lot of Microsoft's monopolistic power comes from the fact that they have been able to effectively control retail access to products.

      MS is the "standard" on the desktop, if you want to share office documents you need MS products,

      No you don't. I don't have any Microsoft products and I have no problem opening up all of the .doc, .xls and .ppt files that people send me. I use either StarOffice 5.2 or Word Perfect Office 2000 (or Word Perfect 8) on my Linux box. I've actually run into less file compatibility problems than some of my Windows-using co-workers who have Office 95 or Office 97 and have had problems opening documents from other co-workers who are using Office 2000.

      if you want to play games you need MS products.

      That depends on what games you want. While Linux doesn't have as many games as we'd all like, it does have quite a few, and Wine is getting close to being able to run a lot of the others. Besides that, you could always get a console.

      Vendor support for Linux will not happen unless a large percentage of the general public wants it.

      Vendor suppose for Linux is already starting to happen. Not as fast as I'd like, but signs are that before long Linux will overtake MacOS as the 2nd most popular desktop OS. There is generally always room for at least two players in every market, and a lot of vendors who don't support Linux now will come around once Linux overtakes MacOS. A 'large percentage' may be large enough to be viable at 5 or 6 percent in as large and lucrative a market as this.

    5. Re:People still want MS by SoftwareJanitor · · Score: 2

      If you are seriously suggesting that it's in the general desktop using public's interest to use Linux as opposed to MacOS you are completely blind to the reality of how difficult most people find computers to use (on any platform).

      How do you come to that sort of conclusion from what I said? I think you've got me a little bit wrong...

      Let me clarify... I said that the prediction is that Linux is going to overcome MacOS as the 2nd most popular desktop OS. I don't believe I made a definitive statement about whether it was in the interest of the 'general desktop using public' to use Linux as opposed to MacOS. Neither one of these is predicted to have more than about 6% of the market, and together would likely have only about 10 to 12%. Unfortunately that will still likely leave the 'general desktop using public' stuck with Windows. Both Linux and MacOS are probably still going to be in specialized niche markets for the near future as far as desktop uses go. I'm only going so far as to say that I think that before long Linux's niche market is going to be large enough to make it viable, and that the point where it passes the current largest niche market (that being MacOS) will be a point at which many vendors sit up and take notice. I wasn't particularly saying that Linux is going to steal its market share away from MacOS, although I believe in some cases that may be true, most of Linux's increased market share will come in the form of former Windows users. The loss of its 2nd place status will of course be a blow to Apple, but I don't think it will be fatal to them. People have been predicting Apple's demise every six months for various reasons since I've been paying attention (around 1980) and it hasn't happened yet.

      But then - you're a Linux advocate, so no surprise there.

      I realize that most people find computers, even Macs difficult to use. I personally would (and often do) recommend MacOS over Windows for the truly computerphobic type person, but most of them seem to choose Windows because it is perceived as 'what everyone else is doing'. I do believe that there is a large portion of the market that needs more than what the 'general desktop using public' does, and those people are targets for Linux. I also think that the Windows advocates are to a certain extent living in denial when they continue claims that Windows is significantly easier than the modern Linux distributions and desktops. Linux has been progressing at a much faster rate than Windows, and in most areas is not far behind Windows, in many areas is on par with Windows and in a few areas has surpassed Windows. As for comparing Linux to MacOS, it of course has a ways to go in overall ease of use, but it is still catching up, and MacOS X is going to speed that up rather than slow that down. Why, you might ask? Because Linux developers will be able to see how MacOS X hides its underlying *nix based roots with GUI frosting and copy and even extend upon that.

      One of the other things that may eventually change the balance between Linux and MacOS even for 'general desktop users' is when the balance of application availability shifts. Unless the current trends fall off, that is going to happen in the not too distant future, as the number of Linux applications is growing at a faster rate than that of MacOS, and the advent of MacOS X will also increase that, as it will probably be easier to port applications from MacOS X to Linux than from older versions of MacOS. I suspect that MacOS also won't be hurt by competition from Linux for developer mindshare as much as Windows will be, but unfortunately Windows has a much larger share to be drained off before it will make as big a difference to them.

      And finally, it is in fact in the 'general desktop using public's' interest for Linux to be a viable contender for the desktop market, as it will force both Microsoft and Apple to continue to work hard to keep making their offerings easier to use in order to try to stay ahead of Linux where they are and to try to regain the lead where they have lost it. Going back to my previous auto market example... I have no intention on ever buying, for example, a Ford... But I sure as hell am happy that Ford is out there as a competitor to GM. Besides that, what fun would race day be if there weren't a few rivalries... :-)

    6. Re:People still want MS by mpe · · Score: 2

      Mr and Mrs Bloggs don't want choice on the OS - they don't care! They want to play game, write word documents, burn cd's and add new bits of software easily. Mr and Mrs Bloggs find things like this tricky on Linux/BSD etc - unsurprisingly.

      Whereas Mr and Ms sysadmin (even if they are not the BOFH) want to be able to set up systems which stay set up. Which they can fix without having to boot the user off their workstation, which the end user can't easily break.
      The reasons given for Mr and Mrs Bloggs are either irrelevent or directly opposed to the requirements for corporate IT. End users being able to easily add new bits of software is a nightmare waiting to happen, both from the position of support & maintaience as well as issues of software licencing.

    7. Re:People still want MS by SoftwareJanitor · · Score: 3

      People do want a choice, but they want their choices to all be pretty safe. Look at the auto market. You can buy a Chevy, Ford, Dodge, Toyota, Volkswagen, whatever (insert the local brands if you aren't in the US). You can be assured that you will be able to easily figure out how to drive it. You will be able to find gas that works in it and tires that fit it. You will be able to find a shop to work on it when you have problems. It wasn't always that way. When the auto industry was at the point where the computer industry is now, things weren't so simple.

      And when it comes down to it, do you think that the 'Bloggs' would like it if all of the other car companys shut down because everyone decided that because GM was the biggest car company it wasn't safe to buy anything else?

      Linux is on the verge of getting to the point where it is as simple to do the things you are talking about as Windows. In the very near future, now that things like StarOffice are GPL and easy, full featured CD burning software like XCDRoast is maturing, and more games are coming out for Linux your 'Bloggs' will find that they can pretty nearly just shove a Linux CD in their computer and have all of those things installed on their machine. If the Microsoft monopoly on retail markets wavers, they might even be able to buy a retail channel pre-loaded Linux machine with all of that stuff (except probably some of the games) pre-loaded and pre-set up for them.

      Frankly, I think you are over estimating how difficult Linux is, even now, and under estimating how difficult Windows can be. I think some of the newer Linux distros are actually easier to install than Windows, if it weren't for the fact that the 'Bloggs' depend on pre-loaded Windows, they probably would never get any of that Microsoft software on their machines. And as for adding new bits of software easily, as someone who has to deal with people who continually screw up their Windows boxes when trying to install things (and I try to avoid such things, but it just happens too often and to too many people that I know), I can tell you it really isn't so easy and foolproof as you'd have everyone believe.

      I'm not saying that Linux is perfect or that there aren't places for Windows or MacOS for that matter... But it seems pretty obvious that the market is in dire need for some competition whether the 'Bloggs' know it or not. If it doesn't come from Linux or *BSD, who else is there besides Apple (which is basically going to a *BSD base)?

    8. Re:People still want MS by mpe · · Score: 2

      The problem with this argument is that it's unlikely that many major corporations will be deploying Linux on the desktop any time soon. Windows may be becomming a larger portion of the costs of a PC, but it's still a tiny portion of the cost of having an employee do a job. The cost of Windows, or even MS Office is still pretty small if it's easier for their employees to use, and saves them some time.

      THe problem with this argument is that MS systems are actually quite hard to use in a corporate set up. Difficult to administer and easy to break too. In this environment things such as end user installable software and games are not a plus they are a liability.

    9. Re:People still want MS by mpe · · Score: 2

      Do not forget the little problem we still tend to forget: Linux is _still_ not ripe for Mr/Mrs. average who wants a easy to use computer with support for webcams, CD writers, digital cameras and alike.

      What makes you think Mr/Mrs Average's home computer is actually the typical situation?

      Things like setting up networking and internet access is not as easy as with Windows.

      There is rather more to networking than Windows DUN...

  11. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by ottffssent · · Score: 2
    Remember what he said before Windows 2000 came out? It was 60000 bugs this and overdue schedule that, and now it's out without any problems at all.

    60k bugs is either fact or not, and pretty much irrelevant anyway, so I won't comment. I don't know about the schedule, so I won't comment there either. What I do know about though is the 'without any problems' nonsense. I'll cheerfully acknowledge that win2k is by far the best windows yet, but if it ran without any problems, I'd get over 100 hours uptime on a regular basis, which I don't. Almost without fail, windows crashes (or becomes unusably tangled) between about 75 and 125 hours uptime. That's a damn sight better than the ~5 hours uptime I'd get with win95, but hardly problem-free.

    Imagine if MS spokesmen spent their time with unfouded attacks on Linux. They don't - which is a sign of self confidens and maturity.

    Do you live in a box? We have a german MS ad insinuating that the many flavors of linux are bad. Has anyone counted the number of versions of windows in the last 5 years (I seem to recall there are about 10 versions each of win95 and 98, not including the different language versions (which, by the way, have different sets of bugs in each), though winME and win2K are too new to have fragmented yet) and compared it with the number of linux distros?
    How about the Naked PC page which insinuates that anyone who doesn't buy windows with their computer must be stealing it later.
    For my third exhibit, I present The Linux Myths Page:
    • "Myth: Linux performs better than Windows NT." The fact is that linux does many things better than NT, but NT also does some things better than linux. They at least support their argument with 'independent' benchmarks.
    • "Myth: Linux is more reliable than Windows NT" - No comparisons, no statistics, no substance. The fact that more companies guarantee windows uptime than those that guarantee linux uptime has nothing to do with the reliability of either operating system, merely that windows is currently more popular.
    • "Myth: Linux is Free" - after which they cite a single comparison between UNIX and winNT, which links to a MS article comparing winNT and Solaris on Sparc, NOT linux. In my book, thats an unfounded attack: if they can't find proof, there's no foundation, and thus it's unfounded.
    • "Myth: Linux is more secure than Windows NT" - The first bulleted point under this header is as follows: "Linux only provides access controls for files and directories. In contrast, every object in Windows NT, from files to operating system data structures, has an access control list and its use can be regulated as appropriate." Right. What would an OS data structure be, if not a file? How about simple things like the floppy drive? That's a file under linux, and thus can be controlled by file permissions, as can ports, peripherals, etc. Next, we have MS's claim that a single source of security information for windows makes NT more secure than linux, with myriad sources of information. To my of thinking, just the opposite is true.
    • Lastly, "Myth: Linux can replace Windows on the desktop," supported by such false statements as "Linux does not support important ease-of-use technologies such as Plug and Play, USB, and Power Management" Which explains why adding a NIC to my RH installation caused the appropriate drivers to be installed at startup (after I gave the go-ahead, unlike Windows which randomly adds code to your installation whenever it gets confused). It also explains why my USB cordless Logitech trackball works marvelously (right out of the box, with no tweaking, might I add?), and why ACPI functions are supported out of the box.

    I should stop now, as this is becomming a rant, but surely you see my point? If not, I'll summarize: You're wrong. If MS were self-confident, they'd ignore linux and continue to push windows on its own merits. Unfortunately, it has comparatively few, so they've got to try to make everyone else look bad to make themselves look good. Maturity?!?

    If you don't agree with RMS' style, that's fine. In fact, you should say so. Claiming that RMS' faults somehow make his arguments invalid is not the way to go about it though.
  12. Re:Hey Timothy read that again... by z00t · · Score: 2


    If Microsoft's monopoly collapses, then so does Microsoft.

    Puh-leaze. Just like ATT whithered and died?

    On your other point, though, you're quite right. No one is going to give up the comfort of familiarity without a really, really good incentive to do so.

  13. princess and the pea by _|()|\| · · Score: 2
    both the submitter and [Timothy] picked one bit of unrepresentative flamebait out of a long, long interview.

    Agreed. ESR continually annoys me. In part, he has brought this on himself: his annotations to the "halloween documents" are weak snipes at MSFT, he compares Bill Gates to Hitler, and he openly calls MSFT and Bill Gates the enemy.

    I think a lot of this comes from a lack of perspective. Bruce Perens seems to have mellowed since his look-at-me resignations from SPI and OSI. Hopefully, ESR will do the same. I'm fascinated by ESR and RMS: full-time free software advocates.

    This is the best interview I've read in a long time. It's a shame that Slashdot has painted it with the anti-MSFT brush.

  14. ESR = Optimist by Sloppy · · Score: 2

    ...and completely ignore what the general public wants, selling them computers that can't run their favorite software and games.

    The only real threat to Microsoft is that no one will want WinCE. But RMS' argument really does hold water in that little slice of the market, IMHO.

    Not all computers need to run anyone's "favorite" software. More special-purpose embedded stuff seems to be appearing. Take Tivo, for example. No one cares that Tivo can't read MS Word documents.

    When you have specialized equipment that really just needs to run one application, the legacy issues go away and designers are free to use whatever is cheaper or works best. Those criteria tend to leave Microsoft out in the cold.

    Alas, it's still just one slice of the market, and I doubt it's going to have much an effect on desktops.



    Tangent: certain companies have successfully poisoned standards (and people's perceptions of what standards are) in a way that has strengthened Microsoft's and Netscape's market stranglehold. Notice that a lot of the cheap dedicated surfing machines have tended to run modern OSes like BeOS or QNX instead of 'Doze. But these boxes aren't selling well (AFAIK) because no matter how good their web browsers are and how well they support standards, they invariably don't handle proprietary defacto standards as well (e.g. RealAudio, Flash, etc.)

    Thus, something as generic and ostensibly platform-independant as the WWW has become a place where the John Q Public thinks he needs his "favorite" software. Every time a w3b d3$1ng3r uses a proprietary extension, the world becomes a little more homogenous and a demon earns his wings, because he has prevented price/performance selection from happening.


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  15. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by tristan+f. · · Score: 2

    I have to suspect that something is wrong with your Windows 2000 system (beyond whatever faults may or may not exist in the operating system, of course.) I'm using Windows 2000 Professional right now on a home workstation/server, and I've found it to be INCREDIBLY stable. I reboot it perhaps once a month, and the only time I've ever seen a blue screen is when I once downloaded some beta (as well as faulty) video drivers. I replaced those and haven't seen one since.

    I'm not sure what exactly you're doing to that poor computer of yours to make it crash so often, but I doubt that your experiences are typical.

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    Hi, I'm a pretentious cock who will make some gay comment about ignoring AC posts here.
  16. Stupid writeup by update() · · Score: 3
    I'm not a Timothy basher (I think he and Hemos are the best of the /. editors) but both the submitter and he picked one bit of unrepresentative flamebait out of a long, long interview.

    There's a lot here about open source, VA, Sun, IBM, RMS... Nothing I found particularly interesting, and he's ducking the hard questions (the word "Mozilla" is nowhere to be seen - the man who was so eager to wrap himself in the glory of that project now pretends it doesn't exist) - but focusing on that one bit of nonsense completely misses the point.

    Oh well. Let's get back to the lengthy flamefest conducted by people who haven't read the article!

  17. Re:Appropriate Quote by TheGratefulNet · · Score: 2
    Care to trace that quote to its source?

    you could try, but if you did a traceroute, none of the packets would come back alive..

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  18. Re:We're not there yet by cyber-vandal · · Score: 2

    How many corp end users havr to set up anything. None I would say. It's the sysadmin's job. If I have a problem with access to the internet, say, I phone up the IT helpdesk and they sort it out for me. Linux would be just the same.

  19. Here's your Reality Check by Greyfox · · Score: 5
    Microsoft's monopoly isn't going anywhere anytime soon (Though with Bush in office, the case against them will be dropped.) Linux has come a long way in user friendliness since I first started using it, but it's still missing some very important pieces which it very well may never get. A decent word processor topping that list. Don't say Staroffice, I'd rather have my flesh flayed away rather than use that bloated piece of shit. I'd say a decent mail package, too, but at least the Helix guys are working on one of those. Many of the Linux users I've known use Netscape Mail, which sucks as a mail client.

    Not to mention the fact that all the game people are still writing to Windows. Now you and I may know that you should play games on your Playstation 2 and leave your computer free to run stock simulations, but Joe Average Luser wants to play games on his PC. Telling him to buy a Playstation 2 is simply hiding your head in the sand, though he probably actually already has one. Loki's cool in that department if you don't mind getting titles that were released for Windows 3 years ago and you don't mind buying them off the Internet, because you're not going to have any luck finding their stuff in any of the local brick and mortar stores (At least not where I live.)

    And don't think Microsoft is going to sit there and let Linux compete either. They're going to do their damndest to prevent the Open Source community from competing with them. Do you think it's a coincidence that Joe Average Luser can't get DVD player software for Linux? Microsoft is a BIG contributor to the DVD consortium. As more and more media gets tied up in copy-protected formats, Open Source software proponents will have a much harder time pushing their software since it won't be able to play any media off the net.

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    I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?

    1. Re:Here's your Reality Check by tswinzig · · Score: 2

      Though with Bush in office, the case against them will be dropped

      Yeah right. The case was already won by the government. I've read many times over from the people really involved with the case that there is no way in hell Dubya is going to stick his foot in and try to bail Microsoft out. It'd be one thing if he somehow stopped the trial before it ended, or if Microsoft had won and he steps in to stop a government appeal, but it ended with a Microsoft loss! Too late!

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      "And like that ... he's gone."
    2. Re:Here's your Reality Check by Chris+Johnson · · Score: 2
      To underscore this and offer additional explanation supporting this opinion: Dubya is not going to help MS. He might, probably will be seen publically exhorting people to support innovation- that is known as 'politics', he got a great deal of money from Microsoft.

      They expect him to spend what little political clout he has (in a deadlocked House and Senate) to bail them out personally. It ain't happening, not when he can just posture and pontificate and do nothing (nada, zip, squat). Any action he takes to bail them out will be immediately used against him politically and will damage his ability to accomplish many other things such as removing the separation of church and state, censoring the Internet, and propping up Texas oil companies.

      What does he care about Microsoft, really? He took their money. I seriously doubt he is an honest enough politician to stay bought. For him to start interfering with this very public process... well, I'm making one assumption- I'm assuming he's not crazy. It's possible he is crazy and doesn't understand the damage such interference would do him. If so, life will become _very_ interesting in every respect- and from the strictly Linux perspective the winning strategy would be to widely publicise Microsoft's behavior to its own customers, which would rapidly go beyond abusive. I read in another Slashdot thread of Microsoft threatening a company, saying "You are considered a suspected software pirate because you do not have enough copies of our software for your size of company". This is... not a normal vendor/consumer attitude, and there's no reason to believe they'd stick to threatening large companies. They'll threaten Grandma with her old PII, they'll threaten their entire userbase, and Linux will start to seem a lot more sensible- that or use old or pirate copies of W98 on the reasoning of "if they are going to threaten, extort and raid my physical property why shouldn't I pirate the stuff? They are already treating me as if I am."

      Either way, MS actual revenues are severely affected.

    3. Re:Here's your Reality Check by Greyfox · · Score: 2

      Sure, I can get DVD player source and compile it and hack everything together. Joe Average Desktop User isn't going to do that, and if it turns out that decss is illegal (And the DMCA more or less guarantees that, constitutionality of the DMCA aside) Joe Average Desktop User is never going to be able to get a distribution of Linux that will support the DVD player that came with his system. The same thing goes for SMDI and all the other copy protected formats which will soon come down the pike; people may reverse engineer them, but if those efforts are illegal, no dist will ever ship with the binaries, which is what you need if you want to attract Joe Average Desktop User.

      --

      I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?

  20. Re:The truth is in the middle by turpie · · Score: 2

    He was talking about the colapse of the Micro$oft monopoly.

    I'm glad someone else mentioned this. Why did Timothy need to give the article a sensationalist bullshit header which is out of contect to even what the submitter wrote, let alone the actual article?
    This happens often enough as it in the comments area, with people bullshitting and whining about stuff without actually reading the articles.

  21. Re:We're not there yet by _|()|\| · · Score: 2
    BeOS, OTOH, is a much better direction in terms of something to de-throne the giant.

    And this would be good why? I did the OS/2 thing. I rooted for a technically superior but market-share challenged proprietary underdog. (Who knew IBM would be so inept?) BeOS may have some technical advantages over Windows, but where are the applications? BeOS may have some advantages over Linux, but Linux is free--to use, to modify, to sell, to pay someone to fix, etc.

    I'll grant that competition is good, even when both choices kind of suck, because it helps to keep people honest. That's why I root for Apple every now and then.

  22. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by Trepidity · · Score: 2

    I'll cheerfully acknowledge that win2k is by far the best windows yet, but if it ran without any problems, I'd get over 100 hours uptime on a regular basis, which I don't. Almost without fail, windows crashes (or becomes unusably tangled) between about 75 and 125 hours uptime. That's a damn sight better than the ~5 hours uptime I'd get with win95, but hardly problem-free.

    I'm not quite sure how everyone manages to get Windows set up so horribly. I'm currently writing this from a Windows 98 box with 88 hours and 16 minutes uptime. 75-100 hours uptime is the norm for me on Windows 98, so I find it hard to believe that your Win2000 box can't at least match that.

  23. Re:Appropriate Quote by scrytch · · Score: 2

    > "Nietzche is Dead." --God

    Care to trace that quote to its source?

    --

    --
    I've finally had it: until slashdot gets article moderation, I am not coming back.
  24. Re:Microsoft won't die by Pig+Hogger · · Score: 2
    here is no way Microsoft is going to collapse in 6 months. None.
    They said that 3 months before the Soviet Union did...

    --
    Game over, 2000!

  25. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by Trepidity · · Score: 2

    Counting bugs is irrelevant - if I started counting the "admitted" bugs in the Linux kernel I'd be counting for quite a while.

  26. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by rjh · · Score: 3

    Remember what he said before Windows 2000 came out?

    Yep. What's your point? Visionaries are more often spectacularly wrong than they are spectcularly correct. If you take what ESR says as being prophecy, you'll find him to be a remarkably lousy prophet. If you take what ESR says as being rumination, you might find a lot in there that warrants consideration.

    And frankly, I find his ruminations to be far more interesting than anything I've seen from you here on Slashdot. :)

    [N]ow it's out without any problems at all.

    Win2K adoption is running less than half what was predicted, and far less than Microsoft was hoping. They put out a media blitz for Win2K which brought the Win95 launch to mind--in some ways it was even more over-the-top; Microsoft paid top dollar to make sure that every PC in the Bond movie The World Is Not Enough was running computers marked as "Microsoft Windows 2000 Professional" and all the handhelds were running WinCE. That kind of massive media blitz costs a lot of money and suggests MS had a lot of confidence it'd sell like hotcakes.

    So far, sales have been tepid.

    Insofar as reliability goes, my Win2K box crashes about every three or four days. Windows NT 4.0 crashed once a month or so. Win2K, on my own machine at home (dual PIII/800s, VIA mobo) has failed to be reliable.

    I think the problem is that he is a hangover from the immature days of Linux.

    As soon as I have to wear a suit and tie to be taken seriously in the Linux community, I'll defect to FreeBSD. I do my hacking sitting in my boxers at 3AM. Kernel development proceeds chaotically and "immaturely", yet at a breakneck pace.

    If you take away the "immaturity", you take away Linux's greatest strength--that it's young and still explodingly vibrant.

    Imagine if MS spokesmen spent their time with unfouded [sic] attacks on Linux.

    You have been living under a rock, haven't you?

  27. ESR and Nazi-name-calling by Trepidity · · Score: 2

    It's said that in civilized debate, the first person to compare his opponent to the Nazis automatically loses. Sorry ESR, you lose.

  28. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by kaisyain · · Score: 2

    What would an OS data structure be, if not a file? How about simple things like the floppy drive? That's a file under linux, and thus can be controlled by file permissions, as can ports, peripherals, etc.

    I dunno. How about sockets? Can I do chmod +rw /dev/port/80 so that you don't have to be root to open ports 1024? No.

    Can I put access protections on the access protections so that someone can read a file but not see what the protections on the file are? No.

    Can I put protections on only parts of a file? Say I want the introduction of my paper to be public but the financial data to be private? No.

    Can I put access protections so that other people can't see what processes I'm running? Or so that they can only see how long it has been running but not how much memory it takes up? No.

  29. Re:Appropriate Quote by Pig+Hogger · · Score: 2
    "God is Dead." --Nietzche
    "Nietzche is Dead." --God
    You're both dead if you don't stop writing on the walls! -- The janitor

    --
    Game over, 2000!

  30. MS Monopoly will not be threatened any time soon by silverpelicanfeather · · Score: 2

    Microsoft could afford to give their OS away and still make a large profit. Per financial reports, Office alone produces 40% of MSFT net profits. Windows has a 25% share but, due to lowered expectations for earnings and a huge bankroll, MS could take the OS loss and still be extremely profitable. In fact (heresy here but what the hell) Linux would be seriously threatened if Windows became freeware. Due to current MS sensitivity to charges of monopoly, a freeware Windows probably isn't in the cards. But don't be surprised if, after the court decision has been reversed and MS is pressured by computer makers, MS does decide to give their OS away for a while.

  31. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by ostiguy · · Score: 2

    2k sales will surpass 4.0 sales this quarter for the first time.

    http://www.win2000mag.com/Articles/Index.cfm?Art ic leID=16345

    Win2k has a ton of compelling features, and is a lot more robust than 4.0

    ostiguy

  32. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by Black+Parrot · · Score: 2

    > It might be nice if they ran the free software under Linux, or even BSD, but this isn't going to happen overnight.

    Of course, as more and more Windows users adopt GNU tools and OSS toys, some will inevitable ask why they're paying for Windows when they could run the same stuff elsewhere.

    --

    --
    Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
  33. Re:This was in by evilned · · Score: 3

    The stock price manipulation is much more important than just that. As someone mentioned in a previous article, those stock benefits come at the cost of shareholders. If the stock slips, not only do they lose their work force, they also fall down a very slippery slope. If it starts to really slide, like down to the $20-30 range, having stock options given to every joe blow at MS becomes a serious threat to shareholder value. Then MS has to pay their employees better, and on top of that, they lose that really slick tax break they get for employee stock options. If MS goes, it will go down quick and hard.

    Now as far as when that will happen, ESR predicting the fall is a bit like the CIA trying to predict when the Soviet Union would collapse. Open Source advocates just have too much involved in trying to make MS collapse for them to make any rational predictions as to when or if it will occur.

    --

    "My head hurts, My feet stink, and I dont love Jesus." -Jimmy Buffett

  34. Re:Bad faith. by Lemmy+Caution · · Score: 2
    What you either don't know or don't say is that it was partially DOJ anti-trust action (a consent decree) that helped erode IBM's position. And that IBM's position was never, ever as strong as Microsoft's.

    But, hey, 6 months isn't too long from now, let's just wait and see.

  35. What a good FUD! by Ektanoor · · Score: 2

    Ok people. I don't wanna defend Raymond. Frankly his interview has some weak points.

    But what I see here!..

    Microsoft has a decent mail system? Cool, show it to me... Outlook? That piece of trash with good look? Very good. If you are a user then you must be a damn lucky guy to not have trouble with it. If you are a sysadmin, damn or you are REAL GOOD or you and me are not living on the same planet...

    On what concerns the desktop. KDE vs Windows? That's old. KDE2 is not worser, in most points to Windows. It may be different. But most users consider it at the same level as Windows. Some even comapare to autos of different carmakers. And here I mean general users. Those who don't know nothing about command lines and bash scripts. Those who know this stuff, prefer things like WindowMaker or AfterStep.

    Sorry StarOffice bashers. Yes, the tool has some serious esthetic drawbacks, but, sincerly, most people I see, either choose it or Office97. So second place in front of Office00 is not bad at all. And while the masses still use Windows, I'm already seeing a 50/50 OS fight among advanced users. For example, in the office I'm now, we have 5 Windows and 4 Linux desktops. On a comapny I know, the financial director already uses Linux for all his work. We suse StarOffice for nearly 80% of documents and i have not seen any serious drawbacks in the conversion of M$ docs.

    On what concerns your stupid trend "Linux is not ready for the desktop". It is not ready and it will never be ready. In most sense. Linux is a building block. Something like a Lego box. If you don't wanna burn your brains building it for a month or two then go and get Windows. But don't come here saying this "linrftd" BS. If you don't have the preparation or the guts to make a desktop system, it's YOUR problem. My Linux box is working for the 5th month in a row. And because one HDD physically crashed. Or else it would be in its 11th month. My collegue is using a box with nearly no big changes since July last year! Now our Windows fans here, fully reinstall their piece of crap every month!
    Yes it is a hard thing to do. My box took nearly one month to get into full work. But it is an office desktop machine.

    The only thing I would agree is that Linux is not ready for games. Correct, I give up on this one. But I'm in an office and I have a job to do. Games, I can play in other machine.

    And what concerns Microsoft loosing its monopoly. It already lost it. If you don't see, then you're quite blind. Many advanced users are already using Redhats, Mandrakes and even Debians for their regular work. And this is making many common users to pass frontlines. Just yesterday I had three users asking for my Linux CDs. Everyday I hear people asking things about Linux settings, configurations. Most, only claim the lack of games as the main barrier to not use Linux fulltime. And what is more significative, is that a large group of dial-up users uses only Linux in their Internet roaming. So don't tell me tales.

    1. Re:What a good FUD! by Graymalkin · · Score: 3

      A lack of games is the fucking least of Linux's worries. Linux is facing even more of a problem than Apple in the marketplace. There is a serious lack of hardware and software support. Linux needs alot of things before it is even close to ready for prime time. So the fuck what if it has StarOffice and KDE2. Those don't mean shit when you don't have a unified set of graphics libraries or unified component support. Mac and Windows have these and as it turns out they can be fairly easy to develop complex applications for. Command lines are a throwback to computing of the 1970's and Linux keeps with that tradition; one that in a low level way inhibits what sort of things you're going to be able to do with the system. Because your friends ask for help with Linux just means it needs alot of fucking work before you're going to get work done on it regularly.

      --
      I'm a loner Dottie, a Rebel.
    2. Re:What a good FUD! by Ektanoor · · Score: 2

      I may understand your opinions. Except one.

      "Also, the times I've seen Linux in use in the past two or three years, the GUI is looking more and more like the Windows front end - which, I clearly remember, was resoundingly slated by the Linux community when Windows 95 came out. Not afraid to take all the fruits of millions of dollars of research that Microsoft spent, are you?"

      Part I
      I'm on Linux and I'm not seeing that resemblance. I'm not really seeing it! And I LOVE the desktop I'm in... It does what I need and in a much better way than other wm or Windows GUI.

      Part II
      Before speaking about the millions of dollars, remember where M$ sent OS/2 & IBM + Xerox Palo Alto Labs, Apple and the X Consortium (MIT back then). Microsoft has also a good deal of taking ideas away (a big one, btw: cp/m, cp/m, cp/m, cp/m...).

      One the rest I may agree on your opinion for not using Linux. It's your tastes, wishes and maybe possibilities.

      However this does not mean I agree with the FUD running here in the talks. "Come on, people... Linux is still..." - COME ON TAKE A BIT OF FATNESS OUT OF YOUR BELLIES AND GIVE A DAMN TRY BEFORE TALKING FOR THE PEOPLE! COMMIES! That's what you are! One GUI, one library, one application suit, one OS. What this makes a difference from: One leader, one party, one country, one revolution. And this specially goes to the makers of Gnome/KDE wars. Those on Windows are too bolshevised too take this into attention.

      From the Cold... Wanna a nuke? We have plenty here... Commies left a lot of them :)

  36. linux in the real wolrd by HenryC · · Score: 3

    I'm seeing lots of talk about how if linux could only become "deployed" by OEMs it would be the next best thing since sliced bread. But OEMs will NEVER use it until they can make a profit. And they cna't make a profit off an operating system that isn't profitable to the companies they sell to. all companies will rely on windows b/c it is compatible and for the user who doesn't care what OS he runs, it is simple and effective. Unless the community makes a concentrated effort on changing linux DRAMATICALLY such that the typical user who only wants to surf the internet and word process can do it better then with windows, then nobody would gain by switching companies over to it.

    I use linux and love it, but I'm a programmer. The typical user is not a programmer. the typical user wants to remain compatible, and wants ease of use, and wants multimedia. and you can not tell me that linux makes it easy to be compatible, or that linux is easy to use. if you tell me linux is easy to use, then I'll point out that every time I add a piece of hardware I have to reada howto, wheras with windows I could just Plug and play, and if yout ell me it is good for multimedia, I'll ask you a/b DVD, a/b quicktime, about netscape plugins, and all sorts of stuff, that havn't been developed because there isn't enough commercial demand for them.

    So I ask that all us linux users stop fantasizing about the day companies switch over to linux, and make it something that companies would WANT to do.

  37. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by Malcontent · · Score: 2

    Cos the shoddy ones are free. It's a matter of perceived value. Is ms office $400.00 better then star office? is photoshop $700.00 better then gimp. Well not for a lot of people but for some people yes. But they keep gettig better and better and one day it won't be worth the extra money to but office. Office will still be better but not enough to part with $400.00.

    When that day comes MS will lower the cost or office will become just-another-office-suite both of which will make me very happy. With the two major cash cows windows and office becoming comodity items windows domination of the tech industry will finally come to an end and they will the just-another-software-company.

    Already MS makes more money by buying and selling companies and stock then by selling software so I don't thinkg it's hurt Bill very much but what the hey.

    --

    War is necrophilia.

  38. Listen up, shitheads by Von+Rex · · Score: 4

    That's two totally misleading headlines you've posted about Microsoft in one week. Headlines that had nothing whatsoever to do with the story being quoted.

    1. Today's story had nothing to do with "Microsoft" collapsing. The interviewee did make one offhand comment about their monopoly collapsing, but that's an entirely different thing from the company itself collapsing.

    2. A few days ago you had a story about Linux "saving" Microsoft. The article in question had nothing to do with this headline, nothing at all. The gist of it was that Microsoft is powerful, will remain powerful, and as soon as Linux actually becomes relevant to more than the lunatic fringe then MS will make a definitive version of Linux and basically consume it. Only a diseased mind could even imagine that this meant that Linux would "save" MS, but that didn't stop you from making it the headline.

    I suggest you guys take a course in remedial journalism. Better yet, get some kid from the local high school paper to help you out.

  39. Re:MS Monopoly will not be threatened any time soo by Chris+Johnson · · Score: 4
    Office revenues are down, and I seriously wonder whether your figures take full account of the stock pyramiding Microsoft (and Cisco) does. You've got no idea how expensive MS has become to operate- constantly increasing stock perks to employees to hang onto them, vast nebulous projects like .NET that lead nowhere and are money holes, branching off into completely new areas that are anything but powerbases supported by- you guessed it! spending and more spending and still more spending.

    It reminds me of nothing so much as Apple at its deadly worst. Instead of OpenDoc and eWorld, we have SOAP and .NET. Instead of Pippin (remember Pippin?) we have X-Box. And instead of "beleaguered" (which ended up being a darn good wake-up call) we have "MS will never stumble, it always has more than enough money ahahahaha! It will never bobble, never never ahahaha! Here, have some more stock!" which to any normal investor or business person has to set off howling warning klaxons everywhere.

    Tell me, if any other company was telling you about .NET, would you say it was even going to _ship_? If any other company told you it was going to expand outward into game consoles and beat hell out of Sony despite having no experience, console marketshare or reputation, would you believe a word of it? Do you seriously think _everyone_ is going to continue to believe black is white, X-Box is progress and .NET is the future just because MS used to have an awful lot of money?

    The MS monopoly is outrageously expensive to maintain- they must spend huge amounts on simply maintaining total money hole products like IE to win marketshare and there IS no more marketshare and there aren't any sensible proposals for how they're going to shift to a sustainable profit model not based on continuous exponential growth. If they were forcibly broken up this would be a very good scapegoat for a complete overhaul that would leave them in good shape for years. As it is they are cruising towards a collapse because they insist on treating everything the same way they did when they were unseating Netscape and flooding the world with W95- and they are only the 900lb gorilla in computer software, not consoles or back-ends or servers or media. I don't think they will be able to adapt unless forcibly broken up.

  40. ESR doesn't walk the walk by mr · · Score: 2

    (The big thing in this article is about how IBM is releasing new code under an Open Source license. The believe of Micro$oft being troubled plays well on /.)

    ESR talks about how wonderful Open Source is. ESR talks at LinuxWorld and The Bazzar about how BSD is a fine open source product, and should get far more press than it does. (or how the BSD Kernel is better written code overall)

    Yet, rather than talk about how Open Source OSes will become dominate in the market, ESR chooses to promote only Linux. Fetchmail comes in Linux pre-built binaries, and linux formatted packages...no BSD specific versions.

    ESR is willing to be politically neutral on KDE/GNOME. ESR is willing to talk about how BSD needs more press, then uses Linux as the generic term for Open Source OS. If your position is as a 'leading' Open Source advocate, then choose to only mention BSD rarely, what kind of "open source OS advocate" are you?

    If you are going to talk the talk about how BSD should have more promotion, why won't you walk the walk? ESR, why do you not promote BSD more, given you are a "leading Open Source" advocate? Lead by example, rather than empty rhetoric.

    Or are you a good corporate shill for VA Research^H^H^H^H^H^H^HLinux?

    --
    If it was said on slashdot, it MUST be true!
  41. I'm fed up of this windbag by Kiss+the+Blade · · Score: 2
    And I'm sure a lot of you are too. Remember what he said before Windows 2000 came out? It was 60000 bugs this and overdue schedule that, and now it's out without any problems at all.

    I think the problem is that he is a hangover from the immature days of Linux. But now that Linux is growing up and becoming commercially valid, isn't it time that its spokesmen grew up as well? Imagine if MS spokesmen spent their time with unfouded attacks on Linux. They don't - which is a sign of self confidens and maturity.

    It's time for RMS & ESR to behave in the same fashion, IMO.

    KTB:Lover, Poet, Artiste, Aesthete, Programmer.

    --

    KTB:Lover, Poet, Artiste, Aesthete, Programmer.
    There is no

    1. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by Lemmy+Caution · · Score: 2
      Other vital distinctions between them:

      RMS does not have a particular vendetta against Microsoft, except insofar as they are just one of many close-source proprietary software vendors. ESR has a special animus against Microsoft, but is otherwise quite willing to work with closed source software vendors.

      ESR believes that Open source software will prevail because it will outcompete closed source software in the market place. He does not see the difference between open and closed source in moral terms. RMS believes that it is quite possible that "the market" (with the assistance of intellectual property laws) will in fact will allow un-Free software to thrive at the expense of Free solutions, but that there is a definite ethical preference for the Free, even if it isn't guaranteed victory by 'destiny.'

      I'll make no secret of the fact that I think RMS' stance is both more realistic and more sensible, because it views the choice to produce Free software as just that - an ethical choice - instead of invoking manifest destiny.

    2. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by blakestah · · Score: 2


      It's time for RMS & ESR to behave in the same fashion, IMO.

      RMS lives in a world of free software. He dislikes M$, but largely he preaches free software to the masses. He practices what he preaches, and is not involved in commercialism.

      ESR is a poster boy for Open Source commercial movement.

      Lumping them together is doing a large disservice to both of them.

    3. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by pointwood · · Score: 2

      Well I've gotten a BSOD (and had to hard reset afterwards) without any reason. The day before I installed a new video driver for my Voodoo3 2000 card. It wasn't a beta driver, but a WHQL certified driver, so it should be quite heavily tested. Furthermore it was on a newly installed PC.
      It shows that, even though MS states otherwise, they sacrificed stability over speed by letting the videocard drivers get "direct access" to the hardware instead of through the Hardware Abstraction Layer.

      I've also experienced the system slowing down, because something was taking up all the ressources even though all my applications was closed. A reboot helped...

      A funny thing is that if you try to install it on top af Win98, you get the message that "it doesn't recognize the OS" or something like that ;-)

      Overall though, I find Win2k pretty stable as a workstation OS.
      Greetings Joergen

    4. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by Azog · · Score: 2

      Just to chime in - I'd agree that Windows 2000 is very nice and stable as a workstation OS. I have two very similar Hewlett-Packard PC's right next to eachother on my desk. One runs Windows 2000, and the only three apps I run are Word 2000, Outlook 2000, and IE 5.5.

      The other one runs Mandrake 7.2 and a whole load of software all the time - compilers, editors, X, etc.

      I've never seen either of them crash in the 8 months I've been using them. I don't try to keep either of them up for more than a couple of weeks at a time, though - just for hardware changing (I'm always moving hard drives around.)

      On the other hand, my home machine running W2K / dual boot Mandrake 7.2 has crashed in W2K before, while in the Disk Manager control panel app. (which runs amazingly slowly).

      Overall, I have to say Microsoft has done a pretty good job with Windows 2000. I still think that within two years they will be forced to drop their prices substantially, though, or Linux on desktops will eat them alive. All we need is a good Mozilla, KDE 2 and the next Gnome, Open Office (next Star Office), KDE Office, Evolution, and easier setup of games under Linux.

      Two years from now a powerful home PC will cost 500 bucks. How will Microsoft charge their customary Microsoft Tax of $100 to $300 dollars when cutthroat competition will be putting an as-good-or-better Linux on those machines for free?

      And when they are forced to drop their prices, their financial situation will change dramatically. Their days will be numbered.

      Torrey Hoffman (Azog)

      --
      Torrey Hoffman (Azog)
      "HTML needs a rant tag" - Alan Cox
    5. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by RelliK · · Score: 2

      The rumours of Microsoft's death come up every few month, and yes they are getting old and boring. That said, I do think MS's dominance is starting to decline. But it is a very slow process, not 6 month as the certain "visionary" has predicted.
      ___

      --
      ___
      If you think big enough, you'll never have to do it.
    6. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by ackthpt · · Score: 2
      Imagine if MS spokesmen spent their time with unfouded attacks on Linux. They don't - which is a sign of self confidens and maturity.

      Uh, they just did, and I'm sure it was at Comdex...

      --

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    7. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by SubtleNuance · · Score: 2

      MS spokesmen
      It's time for RMS & ESR to behave in the same fashion, IMO

      MS Spokesmen and other corporate spokespeople make me sick. The abandonment of logic and thought in order to shill whatever product you have been hired to do (at that time) is laughable. What Linux (and the rest of the world) needs is FEWER people talking like markatroid shills. We need a social-movement to SHUT THESE PEOPLE OUT because they corrupt mind-space with crap. MS "spokespeople" should be instantly ignored, by 'us' and by any self-respecting media.

      Speaking honestly, about your opinions and beliefs, makes people nervous --like yourself-- because they are used to being spoon-fed their ideas, thoughts, positions, goals, ideology, beliefsystems, politics (WHATEVER) by shameless marketing/advertising $WHORES$ in print, billboards, TV, Radio. In a world fabricated by one-sided liars, people speaking impassioned honesty somehow seems radical. As CORPORATE America seeks to replace its culture and ethos with the REAL world - it frightens me that people will begin to yearn for the whitewashed, bleached, sanitized methods of thought and speech encouraged by American Corporate culture.

      RMS & ESR are provocateurs of the best kind - they speak from conviction and honesty - they also have the good fortune of being 'right' in this case (about OS S/W).

      Your whole post is completely disconnected from reality - you yearn for a false reality of the capitalism-driven void.

      Here is something provocative: America has been violating the concepts of its own Constitution in its dealings with Cuba for 35 years. Stop and have a look that only 3 countries (America, Israel * ???) have supported the embargo against Cuba - while the other 150 (or so) members of the UN condemn it year after year as a human rights violation. Tell me - does the knowledge of America unjustly assaulting Cuba seem 'maladjusted' and 'strange'? Could that be because you are impervious to the idea based on what mass propaganda has been foisted upon you? Could the constant re-affirmation of America's doing 'right' in this case sooth you from the 'radical position' I'm stating above?* Further - would I be wrong because you've heard a contrary message 1^199191 times before, and you have lost the will to question it?

      How is this similar to the objections you make about the advocacy methods of RMS & ESR regarding Linux?

      * Its just may be that 'you' agree with me regarding the Cuban embargo - but I use it as a classic example.

    8. Re:I'm fed up of this windbag by AintTooProudToBeg · · Score: 5

      Imagine if MS spokesmen spent their time with unfouded attacks on Linux.

      http://www.microsoft.com/ntserver/nts/news/msnw/Li nuxMyths.asp

  42. I had the opposite experience... by tswinzig · · Score: 4

    I love BeOS and use Windows all day at work. I've tried Linux several times, but have hated each time. Oh well, so it's not my cup of tea, but I gave it a shot. I'll try MacOS X eventually, too.

    Anyway, I have an open mind, so I talked my roommate into buying an iMac instead of upgrading his Windows machine. Big mistake! I mean, I just ASSUMED MacOS was actually user friendly, since that's what all the Mac zealots are always throwing in our faces. The experience we had was definitely anything other than "user friendly."

    First, we pull it out of the box. Cool design, cool keyboard, cool "zero-button" mouse, etc. We boot it up, the registration screens come right up to get us started. Mid-way through setting up the network, the thing freezes up solid. We wait 5 minutes and give up. Reboot. (Sound familiar?)

    On the second attempt, it works OK. He starts trying out the different applications and getting used to it. He starts using the much-acclaimed MSIE for MacOS, and after browsing for awhile the system freezes up again. Reboot.

    Later in the day, he wants some files off my Windows machine that he copied their before he trashed his old machine. Some MP3's. I figure, this'll be easy, right? It's fairly simple to access my Windows machine from my BeOS machine, so Mac must make it even more "user friendly."

    Yeah right. Two hours (and several 3rd party application downloads) later, we've got a flaky connection to my PC using "DAVE." I don't remember the details (this happened a few months ago), but to put it mildly, DAVE was a pain in the ASS.

    So we download these MP3's. Hmmm, what's this, some of them are not recognized? Oh shit the names got cut off because there was a shorter limit on MacOS filenames compared to my Windows MP3 filenames... so the ".mp3" got cut off and the Mac didn't make it too "user friendly" to get them working. (I ended up writing a perl script for the Windows machine to rename the long files before the transfer...)

    The next day, he wants to get Quicken running again. I say, no problem, your iMac came with the latest version of Quicken! Surely this fine program will make it easy to import from your Windows Quicken files, right?

    And so begins a day-long journey to get the Quicken files over to the iMac. I cannot describe how frustrating the MacOS file handler system is... it's ludicrous. BeOS is the king here with it's mimetype and smart filetype determination techniques. Windows at least let's me easily associate a program with a file extension. Christ I felt like a snake charmer trying to get MacOS to recognize the Quicken files we brought over from my machine! It was IMPOSSIBLE! The files would be sitting there, but you couldn't drag them onto Quicken to open them. If you double-clicked them, they opened in QuickTIME! I realize some Mac pro probably thinks I'm incredibly stupid, but I've been using computers for 18 years, and programming them for 5, and this was a huge pain in the ass!

    Then on the third day, my roommate was getting pretty frustrated with the machine, and I was feeling real guilty for talking him into buying it. I tell him, if you will turn it back into Apple for a refund, I will build you a Windows PC that blows this iMac away.

    Lo-and-behold, the company with the awesome hardware and "user friendly" operating system does NOT accept ANY returns WHATSOEVER. We told them everything -- it crashes, it's not user friendly, we are totally unsatisfied with the machine, etc. -- no deal! We complained to the BBB, and we got back a letter from Apple saying NO DEAL. I think that says a lot about their products. No money-back guarantee because they know (and I know now) that what sells the new Apple machines are the looks, and not the user-friendly OS!

    So in rebuttal to the original post, the only way I'd give me grandma an iMac is if she put me in her will... if you know what I mean!

    -thomas

    --

    "And like that ... he's gone."
    1. Re:I had the opposite experience... by tswinzig · · Score: 2

      You just decided to quit. Maybe you figured you didn't want to be back learning basics, so decided to stick with what you know.

      You're right... after 2 days of trying to figure out how to perform a simple operation on an OS claiming to be "user friendly," I gave up. If something so simple as opening a certain file type in the program of my choice was that confusing, I was literally afraid of how much time would be wasted on harder things.

      --

      "And like that ... he's gone."
  43. This was in by SquadBoy · · Score: 3

    Linux Journal a few months back. The realy amazing bit is how much M$ makes by playing with their own stock. Also keep in mind many of their coders are staying for the stock because they are not making what they could in salary so a decent sized slip in the stock price could really snowball on them. Collapse is a little extreme go way downhill from where they are now makes alot of sense.

    --

    Cypherpunks: Civil Liberty Through Complex Mathematics. Those who live by the sword die by the arrow.
  44. Re:The truth is in the middle by Stephen+Samuel · · Score: 3
    He was talking about the colapse of the Micro$oft monopoly. The company itself will be just fine for years and years to come. IBM's monopoly colapsed in the mid '80s, but they're still a force to be reconed with in the computer industry. It's just that people are no longer saying "nobody ever got fired for choosing IBM..." all the time.

    A few years ago, I walked into a used computer store, looking for a machine for my sister. They had a few boxes sitting there with just a boot prompt -- No OS. when I asked why, they explained that the machines didn't come with proven MS licenses, so they couldn't load dos or windows onto them to prove that the machine worked. Microsoft was being snarky about cutting them a deal.
    I suggested that they get a copy of Linux and explained that there would be NO problem with counting licenses. I figured that, if nothing else, seeing a bunch of storefront machines loaded with a competing operating system would cause the Microsoft marketing weenies to reconsider their intransigent attitude.

    I think that that possibility is still there, but on a market-wide rather than a single-store basis. Although I find Linux far easier to install than Wintendos it's still a nontrivial task for most 'consumer' types. People going home with a box loaded with Linux and a couple of 'free' applications would go a long way towards breaking the 'linux is difficult' myth.
    `ø,,ø`ø,,ø!

    --
    Free Software: Like love, it grows best when given away.
  45. I agree! by rjh · · Score: 2

    I agree, it sounds terribly atypical, but that's my experience with it. I'm still trying to figure out why Explorer crashes so often and takes down the entire system. It's a stock install with only mild tweaking.

  46. Re:Look at the financials by Chris+Johnson · · Score: 2
    Please support this assertion. If I'm not mistaken Steve Ballmer himself has mentioned that Microsoft is overvalued, and there is abundant evidence that Microsoft's accountings are at best fanciful and at worst fraudulent. Check out just the first table in http://www.billparish.com/msftfraudfacts.html and look at 'wage expense not charged to earnings' and 'wage debt at year-end not booked. An internal auditor at Microsoft was fired after warning the company that what they were doing was illegal and constituted securities fraud. He later was awarded $4 million under the Federal Whistleblowers Act. In an 8/7/99 cover story, The Economist noted that a proper accounting at Microsoft would result in a loss of $18 billion for 1998 rather than the reported earnings of $4.5 billion. That is just one year and it was a _strong_ year for Microsoft. This cash balance you speak of is more than 65 percent tax benefits associated with the exercise of stock options, employees prepaying their own wages, and the sale of put contracts on its own stock. Microsoft does not charge stock option wage expenses to earnings- and this expense exceeds $9 billion, causing the true expense to be four times as much as they claim.

    I don't think you are correct.

  47. Regardless of what ESR actually meant or said... by Chris+Johnson · · Score: 2
    It's important to draw a distinction between:
    • Microsoft could collapse in 6 months
    • People won't be using Microsoft software in 6 months

    They are _very_ different scenarios. The first is entirely possible depending on just how much they've been 'cooking' the books over there- they're running a stock pyramid and not charging option pay against earnings and the real situation could be absolutely anything- their financial statements should not be considered trustworthy. The second scenario is impossible. No matter what happens to MS, people will be using the software for quite some time, just out of habit and due to the momentum of the platform. This is orthoganal to MS's ability to earn real money- in fact their titanic installed base and interoperability with PC components is their worst enemy as well as Linux's, because they too have to replace all that W95/98 out there in order to maintain a marketshare of _new_ products. It may be mostly Windows out there but they were already paid for it and won't be seeing revenue from all those boxes again- it is a formidable handicap and very expensive proposition to maintain compatability with all the stuff out there.

    If MS collapses as a business in 6 months, it'll be because their accounting was even sleazier than I thought. MS as an installed base won't be collapsing anytime soon, but it also isn't necessarily going to do MS the company any good.

  48. opposite may be true, as well. by small_dick · · Score: 4

    1) Son of a Bush settles the federal case.
    2) SOB pushes M$ throughout government.
    3) M$ starts running a major PR campaign against linux, with a bunch of "frankenstein" horror stories, replete with viruses, hacks, etc from their "linux labs".

    There is hope that the strong presence of IBM and AMD in Texas may well mitigate the uber-rights' influence on SOB to perform tasks 1/2...not to mention the close election...he may not want to infuriate the CA and UT reps/senators at this point.

    But if the uber-right forces SOB to perform 1/2, I have no doubt M$ will push 3), then it would only be a short time till they control it all and start sending us monthly bills...the grand microsoft end game.

    Then it will be up to a few of the euro and asian countries (perhaps china) to pull Linux back.

    Great Big Googly Moogly, M$ has at least 30B in cash, plus a wide variety of investment income, and several apps that are selling at least somewhat at this point.

    All they need now is for SOB to make DOJ settle the fed case...after which several states will drop out...and it will be back to "fleecing as usual".

    I can't believe people are buying into the whole "oh yeah, i want to pay a microsoft bill every month, just like my phone bill". Geez, people, just stop using their crap and help Linux...that's the single best way to get rid of M$...and insure you never end up with a monthly software "Bill".


    --


    Treatment, not tyranny. End the drug war and free our American POWs.
    See my user info for links.
  49. Someone got me mad! by Ektanoor · · Score: 2

    Lack of hardware and software support? What lack are you talking about? Serious lack? Cards absolutely not configurable in Linux? Show me that please. Show me a field that is fully not Linux supportable. That you don't have one single turnaround.
    Unification. The HELL with that!!!!! I DON'T want unification and most Linux users DON'T want that. The Hell with these KDE/Gnome wars. Let them both live in the herd. I'm neutral to them as I neither use none of their desktop managers. And i don't need common users hanging on BlackBoxes or WindowMakers.

    Developing Mac/Windows complex apps? What do you mean by this? I am an ex-Windows/DOS developer and I saw three years of my life going through the pipes due to M$ "permanent revolution' of their SDKs. I have not seen worser Hell then to support a Windows app. Every three/six months a new patch or debug to hold apps in place. And every one of it taking days to solve, because M$, once again, decided to make changes to its super-embedded system. So you have to dig up sometimes farer than their SDKs. And they forbid reverse engineering. Oh my!..

    Command lines are throwback? Do you realise what are you talking about? You have an automatised app doing a very specific job of sending and receiving files. Why the HELL I need to bloat it with a GUI interface? WHY DO I NEED IT?? If I can do 90% of the administration by using a command with three/four options on it? Why do I need to slowdown things, bloat them and cut my chance of combining commands, do batch tasks and more complex stuff?

    And what concerns my friends needing help on Linux does not mean Windows ones need less. For them we have two whole departments of FIFTEEN people! One for the STUPID questions, the other for the less dumb ones. The last group is three persons only. Besides they support Windows desktops ONLY. Windows servers are FORBIDDEN inside our ISP network for very OBVIOUS reasons.

    1. Re:Someone got me mad! by Graymalkin · · Score: 2

      Just because there is a lack of a command line doesn't mean there has to be a GUI. Command lines apps lack binary component interfaces. So if I want to two apps to talk I have to translate everything to ASCII (plaintext) and send it through the shell. That is horribly inefficient when you want to create networked components. Administration is NOT what most people do with their fucking computers. If i want to make an app that fucking around with the file system i shouldn't have to send text commands through the shell in order to communicate with functions like ls or fsck. Unification and standardization are the keys to keeping development cost effective. I want to develop with as many pre-built tools as possible, not reinvent the fucking wheel all the time.

      --
      I'm a loner Dottie, a Rebel.
  50. Hey Timothy read that again... by The+Big+Bopper · · Score: 5

    ...ESR didn't say that MICROSOFT was going to collapse. He said that their MONOPOLY would collapse. In other words, they would have to compete on more equal ground. Given how many people read your editorializing, I think it is important to make that distinction in your comments.

    1. Re:Hey Timothy read that again... by psaltes · · Score: 3

      ESR also said he doesn't think linux will be suitable for such a purpose (as an OEM), a statement which it's interesting that no one, including Timothy, has commented on...

    2. Re:Hey Timothy read that again... by mpe · · Score: 2

      It's based on 30 year old technology.

      So what? Buildings are a technology several thousand years old. should we give up on those.

    3. Re:Hey Timothy read that again... by mpe · · Score: 2

      Secondly it is conceptually trivial for someone to write a Linux GUI that manages to hide the most complex parts of the system and make it akin to Windows as far as the user is concerned.

      Without makintg something which is adminstrator hostile. Anyway the Windows GUI hides something horribly complex, in places it dosn't hide it very well. Spewing out the contents of the CPU registers is of little use to anyone.

  51. Microsoft won't die by Scrag · · Score: 2

    There is no way Microsoft is going to collapse in 6 months. None.

    Microsoft has so many different streams of income that cutting one off will do nothing to the company. They may need to reorganize, they may need to downsize, but collapse? No way. Also, I fail to see what is so bad about Microsoft. If you want people to switch to Linux, you don't need to kill Microsoft. It seems a bit hypocritical that their strategy is to destroy all their competitors, and we hate them for it, yet when they might go down we all cheer.

    Competition is good, and Microsoft isn't going anywhere.

    1. Re:Microsoft won't die by llywrch · · Score: 2

      I agree with you, but not for the reason you'd expect. In worst case, Microsoft will be around for about five years due to simple inertia.

      That's right -- inertia. It takes years of red ink for a corporation to finally wither away: look at how long it took DEC to finally bite the bullet & sell itself to Compaq. And people predicted the Imminent Demise of Apple for most of the 1990's.

      Granted, much of MS's prowess is built on a hill of sand, & once the stock price is south of $30.00 a share most of the employees will start bailing out. However, even at that point there will be some employees who will stick it out -- & Ballmer & Co. will find themselves motivated to recruit some ``turn-around" experts.

      In other words, even after it has taken a couple of knock-out blows, & has been reduced to a shadow of itself, MS will take a long time to die. And it will be pitiful: I'd bet even Larry Ellison will get tired of kicking MS.

      Geoff

      --
      I think I see a trend here. Maybe for them it really would be easier to muzzle the entire internet than to produce p
    2. Re:Microsoft won't die by walnut · · Score: 3

      There is no way Microsoft is going to collapse in 6 months. None.

      Well there's always thermonuclear war, alien invasion, radical Torvaldists siezing control of the Gates compound and - oh wait... I doubt any of those things will happen in the next six months either. Nuts!!!

      --
      You say you want a revolution?
  52. Re:only by Lawbeefaroni · · Score: 2
    And only about 1 tenth of that is about the immediate colapse of Microsoft. Maybe the title of this should have been "ESR: Assorted Ramblings and Crystal Ball Insanity."

    --
    "When it rains, it pours." --Morton's Salt
  53. Re:We're not there yet by mpe · · Score: 2

    How many corp end users havr to set up anything. None I would say.

    Too many people appear to confuse this with some kind of "home" setup.

    It's the sysadmin's job.

    Guess what? The last thing any sysadmin wants are end users installing their own software, messing around with low level settings, etc. Whilst these may be a plus for a home system they are a disaster waiting to happen in the corporate world.

    If I have a problem with access to the internet, say, I phone up the IT helpdesk and they sort it out for me. Linux would be just the same.


    If it was a problem with your machine it's less likely that you'd get booted out of your seat though...

  54. Re:We're not there yet by mpe · · Score: 2

    If the transition between 95/98 to 2000 is difficult for them, imagine how moving from 95/98 to Linux would be!

    At worst equally hard. Quite possibly less hard, because the people have less reason to cling to their Windows 9x assumptions.

  55. Re:We're not there yet by mpe · · Score: 2

    The whole wizard-driven nature of Windows (like it or loathe it - I tend to the latter) means that most of them can set up stuff without needing more knowledgable people about. Installing programs is usually a couple of clicks, and there's an icon in the start menu so they can find it and run it.

    Or youc an do this and BANG dump of the CPU registers on a blue screen. There might be an icon in the start menu but it could easily be something obscure and far from intuitive.

  56. Re:but windos isn't either by mpe · · Score: 2

    I don't believe in copying windos, it's the primary reason I use neither KDE nor gnome - they're trying so hard to be windos-like that it sickens me.

    My complaint is more in copying the Windows approach of self administration. As a sysadmin I want to be able to set up a machine such that a use can simply login and use it. Rather than being expected to setup things like what browser proxy to use or mess around configuring POP3/IMAP access to files directly accessible in the first place. Also the ability to restrict changing configurations, either for all users or for specific users and/or groups...

  57. Fer chrissake by Galvatron · · Score: 2

    The MS case is a LEGAL case, or hadn't you noticed. If the president could exert significant influence on legal proceedings, then how the hell do you explain the Supreme Court siding with Bush, despite the Democrat in the White House, or for that matter the Florida Supreme Court siding with Gore despite Bush's brother in the Governor's Mansion? This case is out of Bush's hands. Unless he pushes a bill through congress which does away with anti-monopoly laws (hardly seems likely given the make-up of congress), he cannot do anything to impede the case.

    --
    "The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than that of whether a submarine can swim" -EWD
  58. Re:Bush & Microsoft by Chalst · · Score: 2

    Richard: Good to see you here (I remember your excellent contribution
    to the DOJ vs. MS trial analysis). If Bush *were* (I think it
    unlikely) to try to get Microsoft of the hook, realistically, what do
    you think his options are?

  59. Re:Bush & Microsoft by hawk · · Score: 2

    Thanks. It's always nice to be appreciated.

    It would presumably take the form of appointing an Attorney General who
    would petiti0on to dismiss the case. Microsoft would certainly agree :),
    but the other states wouldn't. This would simply remove the feds as a
    party, but not otherwise affect the case.

    Bush has indicated support for such a dismissal in the past, but I
    expect his position would change when fully briefed. The general
    free-market position is to avoid anti-trust actions, as they're
    usually not justified by the economics. I agree with this, and fit
    in firmly with Bork and Posner on it. However, after analysis, this
    is one of the other cases.

    Another possibility would be that the DOJ could push for a milder
    remedy. This is possible; I'm certain there will be a remedy,
    but I won't bank on the form. I believe that a split would actually
    be less intrusive than any of the other possibilities, all of
    which would require heavy-handed government involvement in running
    the company. Were I a microsoft shareholder, I would much prefer
    a split than such intrusion.

    hawk, esq., etc.

  60. installing windows by hawk · · Score: 2

    Heck, I never quite succeeded in a fully functional 3.1 installation . . . I hve to resort to the default reinstallation . . .

    hawk

  61. Re:Bush & Microsoft by Chalst · · Score: 2
    So the answer is `not much'. One of the striking features of this
    case is that it is one of the handful of anti-trust cases that Bork
    has actually supported.

    I think I can't resist asking another question: Microsoft seem to
    be basing their appeal on the argument that Jackson showed persitent
    bias throughout the trial, confirmed by the lack of consultation over
    the proposed remedy. Do you think they have much chance of success
    with this?

  62. ESR = Extremely Stupid Reasoning? by Chester+K · · Score: 5

    ESR sez: and that they'll drop the M$ tax, and replace their bundled OS with something cheaper, like Linux

    ....and completely ignore what the general public wants, selling them computers that can't run their favorite software and games. Yeah, companies last real long when they do that. I hear DVD drives are expensive too, perhaps OEMs will drop them and replace them with Betamax drives.

    --

    NO CARRIER
    1. Re:ESR = Extremely Stupid Reasoning? by Chester+K · · Score: 2

      Spoken like a reasonable person, which is why you don't get interviewed.

      I guess to make headlines you have to make outrageous claims like The Impending Collapse of Microsoft(tm). ;)

      However, it's also possible that a few OEMs will start advertising thier computers as costing $1000, with Linux installed. You then have to "upgrade" to Windows for $100.

      This, I believe, is a more plausible scenario for what might happen in the future. And when it's all said and done, it won't affect Microsoft's bottom line much at all. If it does, I totally expect Microsoft to lower their prices. They are a business after all. If they have to take a smaller profit margin to move the units, they'll do it.

      For the most part, OEMs sell computers to non-technical end users. The people that like the talking paperclip. A computer without Windows is useless to them, because they're certainly not going to grok things that even the Linux community deems easy-to-use, like Gnome and KDE.

      ESR is doing nothing but giving the reporters something to write about, and at the same time, trivializing the push to get Linux to the desktop. If Linux makes it to the desktop, it's not going to be "by default" because Microsoft gives it up like he suggests it is. It's going to take a lot of work and polish on the Linux user interface, better multimedia support, better recreational application support, and perhaps even (*choke*) some cute little talking mascot.

      --

      NO CARRIER
  63. Re:Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerat by Bongo · · Score: 2

    However, I think the fall of Microsoft, whenever it comes, is going to come from below.

    Or it might come when the 'gestalt' of the situation is right. I'm thinking of the 'nuclear accident' scenario, where several small and otherwise 'inconsequential' mistakes, were made, which in combination created a sudden and unstoppable 'shock'.

    Debating where these small sparks might come from may be more interesting that the big "yes it will/no it won't" argument here on /.

  64. Mirror by Flavio · · Score: 3

    The site seems to be slashdotted.

    Here's a mirror

    Flavio

  65. Uhhh....one little problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    people actually listen to what Microsoft says. You might say they are deluded or naive, but the point is that MS marketing works on the masses.

    The only people who listen to what linux people say are other linux people. When I point general people who are curious about linux to pro-linux sites, they tune out out of annoyance from the sheer chest-thumping and patriotic drivel. Just read a random /. post for evidence.

    Yeah, go back to making wisecracks on MS and high-fiving each other. MS is still beating linux on marketshare and winning more newbies every year. Meanwhile, linux supporters keep wallowing in self congratulation. I thought the behavior would change, but it's getting more deluded than ever before.

  66. Re: Let me help you and your grandma... by tswinzig · · Score: 2

    method 1:Use the PC file exchange to set up Windows file types/extensions. When I download a file from the internet (*.qif) without a file type in the resource fork...this file association will be automatic if I have that set up

    I tried the PC file exchange application, and it was totally unintuitive. (I don't remember the details of why I thought that, but I do remember thinking that.) We did try to setup .qif-to-Quicken mappings, but they never worked correctly.

    method 2:Did you try 'import' from the Quicken application?

    Yep! And equally frustrating, the import window could never 'see' the quicken files we were trying to open. We would navigate to that directory on the HD, and those files would simply not appear, so we could not select them for importing!

    A question then...What happens on Windows if two competing vendors of software decide to use the same extension? One installs over the other and the registry is all kinds of wacked. Is there some process/protocol/method to manage that sort of potential conflict?

    No, but I never run into a problem. I usually don't have a filetype that I want to open in two different programs that often. But unlike what I say in the MacOS, I could drag a .html file into my text editor if I want to edit it, even though it is assocated with MSIE.

    I agree that Be is a good OS. Tried it...liked it, but it has similar drawbacks to Linux to average joe end user, no?

    Uhhh, no? BeOS is incredibly easy to use, more-so than Windows, and especially Linux. My brother (a total newbie) boots into BeOS simply because the CD burner that comes with R5 is so much easier to use than anything he has in Windows! Linux is by far THE hardest OS I've seen in terms of installation, configuration, maintenance, software upgrades, and driver installation/upgrades. :-/

    That said...I'm very excited for OS X!!! Hope you enjoy it!

    I hope so, too. Then again, I probably will not try it until Apple comes out with some less expensive hardware (and/or offers a money-back guarantee).

    -thomas

    --

    "And like that ... he's gone."
  67. Half right by scott1853 · · Score: 2

    PC makers will, and probably have been, sick of the mandatory MS license. I don't think that switching to Linux would save them though.

    For one thing, they would need to pay the cost of training all their employees on whatever Linux flavor they plan on shipping. I'm not a Linux guy so I don't know the answer to how often updates are released and how much those updates change things that the average user wouldn't understand.

    Right now I work at a software dev shop / ISP and the ISP side of it isn't too bad. Anybody that calls up and says they have Linux, all I need to give them is the DNS and phone numbers. I don't know how long it would take for me to master Linux to the point where I could walk somebodies grandfather through setting up dial-up networking. It might not be too bad from what I have seen of Linux. Probably no worse than the different flavors of Windows that they keep moving the network settings around in.

    Still, I think the initial cost of retraining and rebuilding knowledge bases would be prohibitive.

    However, there may be a coup against MS and the vendors will band together and tell MS who's their daddy. In any case, it'll be interesting.

  68. Re:Bush & Microsoft by hawk · · Score: 2


    I'm not sure that it's even one of the few--off the cuff, I can't recall any others that he supported.

    I think microsoft's chances are very slim. If the fact that a judge was
    underwhelmend and annoyed by the incompetence and misconduct of the
    attorney's before him became grounds for reversal, the system would
    be in *big* trouble. Ruling against you is not a sign of bias . . .

    hawk

  69. How's that paint huffing going for you? by gelfling · · Score: 2

    They will NEVER remove Windows from PC's and replace it with something cheaper/free. 95% of all PC owners DO NOT want Linux on the desktop because it won't run the apps they need in everyday life.

    The question you have to ask yourself is this. Which company can last longer giving its product away from free? MS or Dell/Compaq/Gateway? Obviously its MS so all MS has to do is nothing at all and the PC manufacturers will have to eat the cost or pass it along to us because they can't slice their own margins any thinner. Haven't you been listening? That's what monopolies are for. To maintain the price at any arbitrary level regardless of the market. And you know what? Let's say the doomsday scenario comes to pass and Dell/Compaq/Gateway go under. Someone will step in to take their place and MS will just continue to sell Windows to them, this time though for a higher price.

  70. Bush & Microsoft by hawk · · Score: 2

    Guess what: the U.S. DOJ is *not* the only victorious plaintiff in the suit. Even if it were to dismiss, you still have a gaggle of states who would press on for remedy. He'll also probably get better economic and anti-trust advice, and see that an unfettered microsoft is *not* pro-competitive, but that's a side issue.

    The question is not whether or not the suit will be dropped, but what the remedy is. While I'm at it, the folks opposing the breakup because the free-market will take care of it are right about the market--but the market will take a few (5-10?) years, during which consumers continue to lose billions of dollars to the illegal practices.

    Also, the notion that Linux is tricky to configure while windcows is not seems to come from people who actually haven't configured both of them (you may have tried, but that would make you a rare exception). Installing windows from scratch is *much* harder. And when the machine ships with an OS, the user doesn't have to configure it either way.

    hawk, antitrust lawyer and economics professor

    1. Re:Bush & Microsoft by Chalst · · Score: 2

      Nicely put. Thanks again for replying.

  71. Secret Escape Pod by Hard_Code · · Score: 2

    However, Microsoft still has the patented Evil Secret Escape Pod of subscription-based software...so the minute we see their operating system prices come down (in fact they could even do this themselves on purpose), I expect we'll see most of the other software people are dependent on them for to switch to a subscription basis, and *blam*, they maintain their lock.

    --

    It's 10 PM. Do you know if you're un-American?
  72. ESR's comment on patents erroneous by dillon_rinker · · Score: 2

    Secondly I think that independent re-discovery of the technique should be an affirmative defense against patent infringement, that is, you can't patent a technique, keep it secret, and if then somebody else uses the same technique, suddenly surfaces with the patent and say "oh, here's our secret technique which we have patented, and this means you can't use it."

    ESR is either being overly simplistic to make a point or he's ignorant of what a patent IS. You can't "patent a technique [and] keep it secret." A patent means that you make your invention a matter of PUBLIC RECORD. In return, you have a time-limited monopoly on the use of your invention. Because patenet information is available to everyone (legally speaking), you can't re-discover it, anymore than you can re-discover relativity. Sure, you could learn the same mathematics Einstein knew, start with his postulates, and proceed to the same conclusions, but NO ONE would suggest that you had re-discovered relativity.

    Since patents are a matter of public record, it could become very difficult to sue someone for infringement. I could secretly research your patent. I could conduct a few months of phony research - perform experiments, build devices, and (most importantly) keep careful records. whatever. I could then 're-invent' your device, and I'd have the paperwork to show that it was independent. How would an outsider know that I had actually stolen it? How would you prove it? Yet stealing it is what I would have done.

    I do agree that 'submarine' patents are bad; applications for patents should become immediately matters of public record.

  73. Re:Microsoft's REAL problem... by Chris+Johnson · · Score: 2
    How much is 'a couple years back' in Internet years- and how much is 'over $1 billion' compared to their cash burn rate on things like X-Box, .NET etc?

    Wake up: things don't last forever. If Microsoft is 'broken up' I give them ten years before they become irrelevant.

    If they are not 'broken up'- I give them three years.

  74. We're not there yet by verbatim · · Score: 5

    I'm not going to claim to be an authority on this, just gonna give my two cents and let the slashdot crowd tell me if I'm off my rocker here.

    Linux is good. It's not great, yet, but good. I can name several big institutions that run their entire network with Linux, FreeBSD, and DU. It's a great system for computer enthusiasts, "hackers" (not necessarily the malicious kind), and geeks. It is still not ready, however, for the average computer user. I know this because I work support for the average computer user and have a good understanding of what users want.

    Users DO NOT want to spend days figuring out how to setup a device. Nor do they care about kernel level optimizations or text-file configurations. They, as their name implies, USE the computer to play games, browse the Internet, process documents, and draw pictures. Linux HAS all of this, except it is missing the components that keep the low level "tech" from them. Case in point: most Windows users will stare at you blankly if you ask them ANYTHING about the "command prompt" or "dos-mode". Isn't that something they got rid of a long time ago? Wasn't it something only used when computers were a geek toy? The answer is YES. Windows, for the most part, does not require the user to operate the CLI at all. Linux, OTOH, almost requires the user to have at least some familarity with the console and text-files, directory structure and conf file locations. Why do some "personal" versions of Linux come pre-installed with a web-server? Huh? It's still AIMED at people interested in computers.

    Maybe a splinter group (or is there one out there?) should focus on adapting Linux to the common person - one that my mother could use, and one that I don't have to spend days massaging (note that I enjoy playing with Linux on a lower level, so this isn't really a concern for me).

    I think, at the present time, Linux can NOT replace Windows on the average desktop - and possibly not for at least another year. Add to that the fact that Linux/X is a much different experience than Windows.

    BeOS, OTOH, is a much better direction in terms of something to de-throne the giant.

    Bah, but what do I know anyhow? ;)

    --
    Price, Quality, Time. Pick none. What, you thought you had a choice?
  75. Funny that.. by Thomas+Charron · · Score: 2

    A monoploy that could be brought down by other people simply buying other available products. ROTFL

    --
    -- I'm the root of all that's evil, but you can call me cookie..
  76. Re:What.... by otis+wildflower · · Score: 3

    Hey,

    I would give my grandma/ma/kid/pal a Mac before inflicting Windows on them.. In fact, I just did (I gave my ma a portable MP3 player and set her up on an iMac because I wasn't going to pay or l33ch for M$ USB support) and I couldn't be happier..

    Unless you _like_ doing tech work for free during your free time.. I used to, until I exited my teenage years and discovered my time was worth something more than PC tech slavery..

    Your Working Boy,

  77. Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated by bugg · · Score: 5
    I think that predicting the death of the monopoly of Microsoft is a bit presumptious. Given it's current share, even winning the new PC market (which I doubt for other reasons that will come later) won't lead to the death of the monopoly.

    Microsoft's dominance of the desktop has reached such a critical point where it's hard to expect the entire world to change. Predicting that [one | some] free operating system(s) will cause Windows to lose it's majority (a prerequsite for Microsoft losing it's monopoly) in six months is a bit like predicting that the US will convert to metric in six months.

    Sure, we use base 10 for everything, so one could argue that the US will switch to metrics shortly because it makes sense. But we (as a nation) are so comfortable with the english system, as we are with the Windows platform, that change will be slow and painful. ESR says that the fact that PCs are getting cheaper is a good indicator that PC manufacturers will get fed up, but this I doubt.

    I say this because PCs have always gotten cheaper, and hardware is getting cheaper as well. Given how most people see windows as indispensible, they have no objection to paying for a license. If the so-called "MS Tax" ends up being a much larger percentage of the total cost of the computer, I think the logical response from Microsoft would be to lower their prices; not to keep charging an amount people won't pay until they die.

    Microsoft keeps up with things; they aren't about to lose their monopoly due to changes that were expected (cheaper, smaller, faster) but will rather require many more unexpected events to appear on the horizon: but note, MS has their radar up.

    --
    -bugg
  78. Other prognostications by The+Pim · · Score: 4
    ESR has been variously predicting the collapse of Microsoft's stock and their "collapse into irrelevance" since about 1998 (example). And "Windows 2000 will be either cancelled or dead on arrival." He blindly fails to recognize the qualities in Microsoft that allowed it to lead the PC revolution, and will keep it a dominant company for many years.

    And remember what he said about Y2K?

    I admire and like Eric--he's an uber-hacker--but I think in his zeal to sell "Open Source", he's become too confident in his theories.

    --

    The evaluation of an action as 'practical' . . . depends on what it is that one wishes to practice.
  79. Re:Another point. by ichimunki · · Score: 2

    Exactly, besides the fact that margins being down is more likely to affect smaller makers, which tends to do some weeding in the marketplace. The time is now for any pc maker who thinks they may need to, um, think differently, if they want to avoid direct competition with 800 lb. gorillas, to start looking at more alternatives than just Linux. Their solution might include Linux, but I'd doubt that on its own, Linux is enough of a differentiating factor.

    --
    I do not have a signature
  80. The Slashdot effect is at work again by theDigitizer · · Score: 2
    I can't read the article... and I'm not the only one...

    However, whatever it says, there is no way Microsoft could collapse in six months. The make more money from Office and their other ventures than the OEM. I highly suggest this read

    http://www.netaction.org/msoft/world/MSWord2World. html

    To see just how far reaching Microsoft really is... their investments include everything from Dreamworks to BET to Apple.

    check it out.

    --
    Contrary to popular belief, I don't actually make my website for other people to look at.