Mir Deathwatch
Well, everybody and his brother wants to let us know that Mir is coming down, really, they mean it this time. Pick your favorite site to track its descent: Yahoo | NY Times | United States Space Command | Heavens Above | BBC. But Frederic Freidel provides an oddly personal note: what goes up must come down.
Jacek Fedorynski took a look at Guess When Mir Will Splash and drew up this nice histogram of the guesses. He also notes that the median guess for Mir's return to Mother Earth was 2001-03-19 10:11:01, so the collective wisdom of slashdot was off by a few days.
Nowhere in this slashdot story do we mention either the stupid Taco Hell advertising campaign or the space fungus or the Crashing Mir Space Station Detecto-Hat.
The world watched in collective sadness as the largest orbiting space vehicle ended an astonishing 15 year mission in a pyrrhic show seen only by a single unseen reporter for CNN on a small island in the South Pacific. Pontoons could not be installed on a satellite truck quickly enough to allow for a live uplink (...or a delayed uplink for that matter) to be provided, thus missing a potential advertising ratings coup.....
ticka...ticka....ticka...
Taco Bell's famed US Taco bet may still be on! While experts found randomly on the street said that they were hungry for a taco but admitted odds were slim for being fed for free by Taco Bell. Sentiments were best stated by animal activist Sue Smith, "Like, who thinks that a floating taco flag 10 miles from Australia is a good bet?"
Meanwhile, a touring boat in the area, filled with high dollar tourists and a few programming geeks protesting the Taco Bell publicity stunt were a bit closer to the action than even they imagined.
Each protester wore official Taco Bell tee-shirts emblazoned with that annoying chatting chihuahua. The words "Kill the dog - eat a taco" were spray painted on the front and back of the shirts.
However, John C. Code, age 43 from (where else) Silicon Valley, was a victim of the Mir space station, when a hot piece of metal punched through the dog emblem, seared a hole through his chest and embedded into the boat deck. Other boat passengers described the delayed reaction to the incident by stating that John complained of heart burn, sat down and passed out.
Other passengers, traumatized by the incident, searched John's shirt for an official Taco Bell tag for use as ammunition in filing a class action lawsuit against Taco Bell for damages equal to the money projected for the Taco Bell promotion of one free taco to each American.
Attorneys couldn't comment on the preliminary reports but asked, "We have suffered enough! Our chihuahua was cut down by an a horrible chunk of weaponry from space and we're being sued? We are the victims here!" They refused to comment further on pending litigation.
Wall Street reacted to the irony in puzzlement, with Pepsico stock rising $50 in after hours trading. Analysts, ever ready with off-the-top answers, cited the relief that "the dog was dead, and people need an outlet to express themselves in a positive direction in this down market."
ticka....ticka...ticka...
Unveiled from a shroud of secrecy, Dawn Wells and others from the cast of Gilligan's Island admitted that Mir's coming down event provided a perfect backdrop for a sequel to the russian cosmonaut episode where the cast was foiled from escaping the island on a floating space capsule. Rumors had swirled for weeks that such an episode would film. Reacting to the news that Mir had an atomic reactor onboard, Wells let slip that Jim Baccus (Thurston Howell III) had been exhumed for a comedy sketch involving the reactor. "Residuals" (get it?) for the episode would go to Baccus' descendents. "Ginger" was excited about finally meeting a handsome, if aging, cosmonaut. She admitted that she wasn't the dish she used to be, and when told no cosmonaut would be onboard stated, "Well, maybe a good bottle of vodka will make it down. A few belts of that and "Gilligan" (Bob Denver) might start to look a bit attractive. I know I'll regret it in the morning, but what's a stranded movie star to do? Even I have needs..." Filming wraps up in 2 days.
Posted by serpens:
:P
I looked through all the guesses and came to the conclusion that cowkiller was the winner of the Slashdot T-shirt. Anyone confirm this? I was only 10 hours and 20 or so minutes off.
Only 7 or 8 people closer than me.
Letting MIR crash into the Pacific isn't just irresponsible; it's unpatriotic. MIR was a monument to the great Socialist state. It was the last major project the Russian space agency participated in with any great fanfare or success.
And now we just want to deorbit it? To erase it from our memories? If we do not learn from history, then we will be doomed to repeat it. Our children will live in a world without a Russian space station orbiting above their heads. When they look out into the night sky, they won't see the work of MAN shining back at them. They'll only see the light from stars exploded billions of years ago, awash in the effusing glow of decaying atomic matter.
How much better it would've been for them to see the great Soviet empire whizzing overhead! Men died to build that great colossus. Countless dogs perished in orbit in order to test the effects of zero-g environments. Hundreds of manhours were spent in that endeavor, and we'll take it all down for what? So that we can free up a little bit more extraterrestrial realestate for a shiny new commercial satellite?
It reinforces the idea that space is to be a commercial enterprise and no longer one engaged in the pursuit of the common weal. What would Captain Kirk say about our worship of the dollar? What would he say about how we refuse to let this waystation remain on the outskirts of our fair planet just waiting for a new spirit or being to arrive and peer gently and softly at our pulsating ecosystems? The one thing the Soviets had right was their decrying of capitalism and the dammages it's wreaked on our terrestrial and extraterrestrial environments. Now, MIR will be gone, and nothing will remain in its stay.
This is a sad day.
You can pick a site and watch a 160x120 thumbnail reload every half hour or watch the internet appliance that was already there, the TV set.
Well the target is not exactly near where it is going to hit, so its is a rather empty promise anyhow.
I I can't eat at Taco Bell anyhow but I digress.
Erlang Developer and podcaster
Just want to take the moment to gloat and be proud that the Company I work for, Analytical Graphics, is playing a huge role in assisting in the deorbit. We also have a Mir De-Orbit Video that shows how Mir will most likely burn up upon re-entry.
Its a sad day when decent references go un-noticed....
Well not all Mir will burn up... Something will surely remain.
So it is still probable that in a few tens of years someone will try to try to recover something from the bottom of the sea. Well, Americans put a big effort to recover that Mercury capsule they lost.
You honestly think that a taco costs 50 cents to make? Probably closer to three cents, considering that they buy in bulk and probably don't use all-natural ingredients.
The end result is a tasty, if not entirely identifiable, mass-produced concoction that will cost them 9 million or so by my numbers if Mir hits the target.
Of course, you're probably better off trying to win the lottery, because at least that is audited.
Raptor
Raptor
"Procrastination is great. It gives me a lot more time to do things that I'm never going to do."
Hmm, I wonder whether it would be worth creating a bug database for the ISS space station? It would be interesting to see which space station ends up 'living longer' and having the least, official, problems.
Jumpstart the tartan drive.
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Will those of us in the rest of the world (UK, in my case) be able to see anything as Mir re-enters?
11.0010010000111111011010101000100010000101101000
From the NYTimes article
New Zealand maritime authorities have for days been sending repeated warnings to about 30 American Samoa-based tuna fishermen in the dump area. But most of the boats aren't leaving.
``The fish are biting in that area and it has been a tough year for them so far, so they are staying,'' Wayne Heikkila, general manager of the Western Fishboat Owners Association, said Thursday. ``I told the guys to have their video cameras ready.''
Most of Mir is expected to burn up in the atmosphere during the fiery re-entry, but up to 27.5 tons of debris are expected to reach the Earth's surface, much of it scattered over a long swathe following the station's descent trajectory.
I can just picture it:
New on FOX!
WHEN SPACE STATIONS ATTACK!
See what happens when an aging Russian space station decides to go on a rampage. All caught on video by some hapless fisherman who just happened to be in the area.
This space for rent. All reasonable inquiries will be entertained at proprietors discretion.
Most of Mir is expected to burn up in the atmosphere during the fiery re-entry, but up to 27.5 tons of debris are expected to reach the Earth's surface, much of it scattered over a long swathe following the station's descent trajectory.
(from the NYTimes article)
I figure that means you have to watch out for more than just one impact point... something more akin to a lot of smaller, high impact hits.
This space for rent. All reasonable inquiries will be entertained at proprietors discretion.
Interesting bit on the news here this morning about how the Russians have been attempting to finance their future space-programme by selling trips out into space and, until recently obviously, seats on Mir itself.
Can't find any links from a quick look round, but the gist of the story was an American millionaire had paid the Russians $20 million (figures from memory, so that may well not be the correct value) a few years ago for a trip out into space.
Obviously he's not going to get out to Mir now, but they've been trying to get him onto the International Space Station as an alternative, but the other project partners have refused permission, saying it would be too dangerous to have a non astronaut floating around up there while it's still essentially a building site.
The BBC reporter did suggest that there might also be a certain amount of clique-ism going on with the professional astronauts there too however, not wanting a civilian to get the chance to get up there. Final suggestion was that he might still make it up, but only be allowed to visit the Russian section of the ISS.
Be interesting if this starts a trend for space-hopping tourists up there tho!
I recognize that many Australians are concerned about where Mi is going to land. I've looked into the matter. Despite losing to CBS in the most recent Nielsen ratings, ABC does not intend to crash Mir into Australia to wipe out the cast of Survivor II. Any suggestions to the contrary are completely and utterly false.
Actually, CNN is doing it to boost it's own ratings.
Given one hour to live, the student replied: "I'd spend it with professor FP who can make an hour seem like a lifetime."
The Great Wall of China can not be seen from space. Why do people keep perpetuating this myth?
-- Will program for bandwidth
I don't think anyone has mentioned it, so i will. I think my personal favorite is spaceref.com's mir page.
I think almost the entire thing will burn up on re-entry and what is left will be no larger than the head of a chihuahua. If I'm wrong may we all be horribly crushed from above somehow.
A few weeks back Slashdot had a contest to see if anyone could accurately guess the splashdown date of Mir... is anybody still in the running? If I'm not mistaken I'm already out (I picked Mar-20 sometime or other).
:)
Of course, I guess I can still hold out hope for the Mir hitting Taco Bell's floating target out in the middle of the Pacific.
Don't forget to visit http://mirpool.com to put your vote on which latitude and longitude Mir will land.
The site in my sig allows you (along with over 100 others, so far) the chance to pick where you think pieces will hit. Give it a shot!
Stop by my site where I write about ERP systems & more
how ironic, I guess they could be learning what it 's all about?
Now is that cool or what?
"The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than that of whether a submarine can swim" -EWD
Watch out kenny! :)
--- Metamoderating abusive downgraders since my 300th post.
There are conversations on rec.aviation type newsgroups about 'what are the chances...'
We lived through skylab, we live through billions of metorites every day (most microscopic) and we have survived things falling from space since man began, this will be little different.
I like the people who do the chicken little imitation. I also like the greenies who holler about all of this even though most of it will burn up and what doesn't should rust away before too long.
This will be something to look at to see if we can see it fall, though.
DanH
Cav Pilot's Reference Page
Cav Pilot's Reference Page
UNIX - Not just for Vestal Virgins anymore
"We look for the Great Wall of China. Although we can see things as small as airport runways, the Great Wall seems to be made largely of materials that have the same color as the surrounding soil. Despite persistent stories that it can be seen from the moon, the Great Wall is almost invisible from only 180 miles up!"
notice he says _almost_ invisible!
:-)
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There is much cruelty in the universe, John.
Yeah, we seem to have the tour map.
But this got me wondering, how big a splash will this make? The chances of being hit have got to be incredibly small, but how close would you have to be to where it hits for the wave (or flying chunks of molten space station that go flying from the impact?) to be any kind of a problem? (don't have any idea how big/small these fishing boats would be, probably pretty big to operate on the open ocean, eh?)
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There is much cruelty in the universe, John.
Yeah, we seem to have the tour map.
Clearly a push is easier, A push right in to the pacific, and I hope, on to the Taco Bell target
________
Does anyone actually have a Java program designed to control air traffic, or for the operation of a nuclear facility?
What is the probability that someone could have hacked into MIR and retasked the thing to do something funky, maybe come down on the 4th of july, oooh that would really piss the old time soviets off... (using a symbol of pride for a corrupt government as a display of celebration for their adversary...) given of course a small sattelite tranciever. The security implemented back then couldn't have been that sophisticated...
The possibilities are endless...
As several articles have mentioned, this region of ocean is routinely used for dumping old spacecraft. I remember reading that several Progress vehicles have been dropped there over the last couple decades. If anybody wanted some cool (if slightly singed) space junk, the ocean floor in that area would be the place to look. Too bad getting to the bottom would be a rather expensive proposition in itself, much less finding relatively tiny chunks of metal in several thousand square miles of sea floor.
Bugrit! Millenium hand and shrimp!
Vladimir Solovyov was the first commander on board Mir. He is now mission control flight commander. Seeing it go down would be painful enough, let alone giving the order to begin the final deorbit burn.
Bugrit! Millenium hand and shrimp!
Here am I sitting in a tin can
[not so]Far above the world
Planet Earth is blue, and there's nothing I can do...
Bugrit! Millenium hand and shrimp!
When Skylab went down in Australia, some of its larger bits emitted several sonic booms as they decelerated to subsonic speeds.
This is now past tense, since Mir is apparently warming the minnows at this point, but could these sonic booms have been heard in the any of the nearby Pacific Islands? Easter Island, Hawaii, etc?
Of course, I'm not really expecting something on a Krakatoa scale, and I doubt the sound wave would still be audible by the time it reaches me several hours late
1:38pm up 11 years, 53 days, 14:01, 1 user, load averages: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
mir$ su
Password: seineewserastsilatipac
mir# halt
Connection to mir closed.
This article in Yahoo on the Countdown slates re-entry between 1:20 AM and 1:30 AM EST, Friday, March 23.
A site with a real future, www.mirrentry.com
Heavens Above, which has charted the orbital decay.
On the Marx-Spinning-In-His-Grave front:
Leading up to the event have been word of passengers paying $5,000-10,000 a seat to fly around the area in hopes of catching a glimpse (of course, they'll have to be on the correct side of the plane.)
Should the core of Mir hit a 40' square target, Taco Bell will give everyone in the USA a free Taco
An alert eBayer, always right on the cutting edge of capitalism has offered up the Crashing MIR Space Station Detecto-Hat Made of the best stainless steel double-handled colander five dollars could buy... (No word yet from Rambus on patent infringement.)
Lastly I hope that the mutant space fungus will be burned up on re-entry. I don't want to wake up drooling beside a pod.
--
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
Feh.
OK,
- B
--
http://www.bradheintz.com/
- updated
One thing that seems to be missing from this whole Mir deal is the sprout-eatin' sandal wearer's complaining. I checked greenpeace.org, earthfirst.org, and yahoo's /environment/orginizations/hippies, and randomly clicked around and saw nothing.
This seems somewhat odd, as I imagine a couple tons of stuff hitting the ocean at 17k m/h is going to kill a couple of fish. Plus, who knows what sort of nastiness is in the materiels of the ship, screaming out of the sky in a red hot rocket of pollution. I just thought that was wierd. Has anyone else seen anything from the greenies about this?
Brant
Brant
Argle. Bargle.