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Is Domain Speculation Bust?

The latest Netcraft survey is more interesting than usual, because it reports a drop in the total number of registered domain names, as well as a decreasing number of sites reachable overall by the survey. It's been a traumatic year in the tech world, but the drop in domain names goes back to domain name buy-ups of 1999 (and looks like it will accelerate the same way domain speculation did in 2000). All is not gloom, though, and the number of registered domain names is not the same as the number of active sites. The Netcraft site points out that "as domains bought for speculative reasons are abandoned, we can expect a higher proportion of sites to be active." Read the rest of the survey report for more interesting information on the state of the domain world.

24 of 229 comments (clear)

  1. The Horror by spatrick_123 · · Score: 3, Redundant

    Does this mean I should have gone to college instead of buying teenspanking.com?

  2. Not quite yet... by AcidDan · · Score: 5, Informative

    Example: http://www.melbournecup.com/ The melbourne cup carnival

    about a year and a half ago this was a dodgy website for "Melbourne Cups"...

    I think domain speculation is going to be with us for quite awhile, but to be honest it really irks me. I hate the whole concept of sitting on something that you know someone else will have to buy off you.

    in .au land. When a company is registered, it automatically has rights to its .com.au name over anyone else. It ensures the registered business can have their online presence without having to negotiate around people already there and wanting $$$ for what you already essentially own... (doesn't apply to .orgs and .nets tho)

    Trademarks are a lot easier to enforce as I understand it, than company trading names...

    -- Dan =)

    1. Re:Not quite yet... by dushbeer · · Score: 4, Interesting

      ... ensures the registered business can have their online presence without having to negotiate around people already there and wanting $$$ for what you already essentially own...

      It works the other way around too. Take for example http://www.google.com.au/ which has been registered by a web hosting group that apparrently has nothing to do with the Google Inc. (the search engine we all know and use). Note that except for the URL, the word google is not mentioned anywhere on the abovementioned site, not even on their contact page, where the company is named as Dedicated Hosting Pty Ltd. Also note that Google Inc. owns an Australian Trademark for the word "google" in several computer related classes. Activities like this seem to be contrary to the spirit of the .au requirements for domain name registration.

      Anyone can effectively obtain an Australian business name to facilitate the registering of a .com.au domain, some companies even offer a business name/domain name combination for offshore visitors eg: http://www.instra.com.au/auzpack.htm

      Is this an example of an Australian business that has been registered with the sole purpose of domain squatting/speculation?

  3. The future could still be bright. by Henry+V+.009 · · Score: 3, Informative

    There will always be money in p0rn. Don't say that all dot.coms are bust.

  4. Somewhat Ironic... by instinctdesign · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Its somewhat ironic that the drop is happening now, just as getting a domain name is cheaper and easier than ever before. I remember lot too long ago when I went to register my first domain name (www.instinctdesign.com) and the only option was Network Solutions at a wonderful 70 dollars a pop for the first two years. Since the break-up of that particular monopoly I have registered a number more for only ten dollars a year and if you buy in bulk (thank you, I'm not that nuts) it can get even cheaper prices. Odd though that the new TLDs only got a passing mention, sure was a lot of whoopla over what seems to have turned out to be... well, not much.

    --
    forma3
  5. Must Sell! by DeadBugs · · Score: 3, Funny

    Due to these tough times I am forced to sell Squatter.com, which I have held on to for years hoping to cash in but never had any intention of using.

    --
    http://www.kubuntu.org/
  6. fear and speculation and the Telemarketing Game by dnight · · Score: 5, Funny

    Several weeks ago, I was sent an unsolicited "legalspeak" fax notifying me that I had 24 hours to respond, or I would lose all claim to the (My Company Name).info name. Interesting marketing technique.

    I called and pretended to be horrified that I would lose all claim to it, and told them our legal department would be in contact with them immediately to negotiate a settlement. The poor lady on the other end of the phone was conpletely thrown for a loop.

    The game is scored by minutes kept on the phone plus 5 points for every repeated phrase, and if you get the marketer to swear, we win automatically.

    Needless to say, it was great fun. :)

  7. Speculating by fm6 · · Score: 5, Interesting
    A few people did well reselling domain names (AltaVista Technology, the web hosting company, not the search engine, comes to mind), though I suspect these were mostly names that web pioneers had picked up for their own use, only to discover some deep-pockets company wanted them and were willing to pay.

    But once a few people got rich that way, naturally there was a "gold rush". It's no different than the Florida Land Bubble, the tulip bubble, or a zillion other speculative bubbles.

    For that matter, how different is the stock market, with its rumor-chasing mentality? Or modern currency, which is valuable only because you can use it to buy Goods and Services -- which are produced only because they're worth money!

    Which is not an argument for going back to the Gold Standard or shutting down Wall Street. It's just a reminder that speculation and fiat are both essential parts of a modern economy.

    1. Re:Speculating by seanadams.com · · Score: 4, Funny

      or a zillion other speculative bubbles [clarity.net].

      There's an interesting paragraph near the bottom of that eassy, under "1997?". Freifeld tries to make a level-headed assesment of the stock market in 1997, putting it in the perspective of a half dozen bubbles he's just analyzed. His assessment:

      there are some telltale signs that the market for stocks has gone a bit too far

      But he admits:

      The bubble is as difficult to recognize before it's over as it is easy to spot in hindsight.

      We all knew it was getting too hot, but we didn't know how far it would go. Anyone who pulled out out of tech in 1997 could have easily quadrupled his money, had he sold in March Y2K instead.

      So why don't you /. kiddies quit bitching about how much domains were selling for, or how stupid the dotcom bubble was. If your foresight had been half as good as your hindsight, you'd all be billionaires right now from the companies you shorted in '99.

    2. Re:Speculating by budgenator · · Score: 3, Funny

      We all knew it was getting too hot, but we didn't know how far it would go.
      Buy quality for the long term, does the business plan make sense or is it all Blue Smoke and mirrors.
      Resource allocation helps a lot, if the riskier tech stocks pick up too much value compared to your solid blue chip's, reallocate.

      As far as domain name speculation goes, its about supply and demand. When Companies overestimated the economic potential of the web, names were scarce and therefore valuable in themselves, after the dotBomb most companies are a lot more careful about looking through the BS and some are positively gun-shy, making names plentifull and less valuable.

      As far as shorting stocks, you'd better only do it with money that you saved up for a Vegas trip, but remember slots there pay out 98.7%, and are probably a better deal!

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
  8. Re:not only that... by aka-ed · · Score: 4, Funny

    You may have noticed that, since February, entering a typo in the address bar of a browser is much less likely to send you to an advertising site. That's due to the FTC action against Gregory Lasrado. This may have helped reduce the number of registrations.

    Once in a while the gov does something right.

    --
    I survived the Dick Cheney Presidency 7 to 9 AM 7-21-07
  9. $7.5M by waldoj · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Thus, no one can sell obvious things like "business.com" for $400,000,000,000,000 or whatever.

    business.com sold for -- I kid you not -- $7.5M US in November of 1999. What were they thinking?

    -Waldo Jaquith

    1. Re:$7.5M by rtaylor · · Score: 3, Informative

      Thats nothing.. The sale of Webhosting.com to SBC adds another 2 digits to that amount (178 Mil CDN).

      http://www.canadacomputes.com/v3/story/1,1017,30 80 ,00.html?tag=132&sb=142

      Yes, they picked up a few clients and a few employees with the purchasse but it's still got to count for something :)

      --
      Rod Taylor
    2. Re:$7.5M by rjamestaylor · · Score: 3, Funny
      • business.com sold for -- I kid you not -- $7.5M US in November of 1999. What were they thinking?
      Apparently (by looking at the link) they were thinking, "Yahoo!".
      --
      -- @rjamestaylor on Ello
  10. Re:The Internet is maturing by shrdlu · · Score: 3, Insightful
    IMO, this is further indication that the internet is maturing as a communications medium. Until last year, the net was fairly new and its nature and content evolved every month. I think we are finally beginning to realize what we are going to do with it.

    Say what? Until last year?

    First, the hypertext transport protocol does not define the net (that's http to you youngsters).

    Second, the net's been around for more than a quarter century, and shows no signs of slowing down.

    Third, I think that you might want to hang around for a few years or so before you start to make pronouncements like this one. Check out the posts that Google has archived if you don't think your mistakes live forever. Mine sure do (and I left them there, why not?).

    Fourth, the internet is indeed maturing. It will continue to change, and grow, just as it has in the past. Remember, the future is stranger than we can imagine.

    --
    The difference between a Miracle and a Fact is exactly the difference between a mermaid and a seal. (Mark Twain)
  11. Sad isn't it... by Xerithane · · Score: 3, Interesting

    It took them this many years to realize that they were just wasting their money. I'm currently waiting out on a domain because the guy is claiming that he has received bids for $900 for the domain so I have to beat that. I told him, "Sure - send me proof of one claim that I can verify and I will gladly bid higher to secure the domain name." It successfully terminated the conversation.

    I think it's really funny that all these nimrods are finally starting to realize that hoarding domain names only works if you get things like 'doctor.com'. I just have to laugh at all those folks who helped keep the registrars business flowing.

    --
    Dacels Jewelers can't be trusted.
  12. Yes, domain speculation is bust by Animats · · Score: 4, Insightful
    I expected this to happen, which is why I was against ".biz" domains as unnecessary. By now, everybody who has a viable business and wants a domain name has one. There's not much of a market left in names alone.

    Look at GreatDomains.com. Skip the "list prices" for domains, and look at the "recent offers" listings, which are all in the few hundred dollar range. Realistically, that's where the prices are now. And those are offers for ".com" domains. Off-brand domains like ".ws" (Western Samoa), ".tv" (Tuvalu), and ".to" (Tonga) are almost worthless.

    ICANN is now starting up a "registry escrow" program to back up the registrars, so that when registrars go bust, the domains don't disappear. It's good that they're thinking ahead. A registrar shakeout is due.

    It's over.

  13. Hurrah! by newbob · · Score: 3, Informative
    If this ever was profitable, especially for "alternate domains", scared execs that kept this going.

    I work for a Big Media Company, and when the .tv domain became available for people in the US to buy, we were asked "Shouldn't we hurry and register Big Media Company.TV before someone else gets it?"

    Fortunately, cool heads prevailed. We reasoned, a year ago, that the battle was over and .com won. And if anyone dared to put up a site BigMediaCompany.tv that infringed on our trademark in well accepted legal ways, we'd just sue them.

    Nobody has ever dared use our "BigMediaCompany.tv" and we saved the $50K that the .tv folks wanted. Basically, the .tv people were blackmailing the Fortune 500.

    Note for the dense: our company name isn't really BigMediaCompany

  14. Re:No online shopping... by _Sprocket_ · · Score: 3, Insightful


    Most people feel more comfortable being able to touch products they're going to spend their hard earned cash on, and can then take home that day. Clicking a button and then waiting like a puppy by your mailbox is not a fun way to shop.


    Tell that to the mail-order industry. Heck - even the Home Shopping Network might enjoy a good giggle over it.
  15. Erm, yes they are! by Myriad · · Score: 3, Funny
    There will always be money in p0rn. Don't say that all dot.coms are bust.

    Hmmm, p0rn... isn't "bust" largely the point?

    --
    "They do not preach that their god will rouse them, a little before the Nuts work loose." Kipling, 'The Sons of Martha'
  16. Re:Worst squatters are Resisitrars by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    What is disturbing is that as the names expire, the registrars (register.com) do not put the name back in the pool of available names. Rather, they sit on it and force people to pay up to $200.00 to register it. This goes against fairness and this practice must stop. The only way to stop them is to sue them. It seems that the only theing they understand is a court order. Perhaps there is a smart lawyer out there who can make a class action lawsuit to force the registrars relinquish the names they are squatting on and force them to pay the resitration fees rather than getting a free ride on holding the names and extorting people to register it.

  17. Re:Other news by the+eric+conspiracy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Microsoft's server market share is at its highest level ever, with much of the increased share coming from Apache.

    That's NOT what Netcraft actually said.

    "The drop has had particularly evident impact this month at the popular registrar register.com, which has seen the number of registered but unused sites parked at futuresite.register.com drop by 300k, accounting for the drop in Apache numbers this month."

    In other words the drop in Apache numbers was actually due to lack of registration renewals at Register.com, NOT due to any gains by Microsoft.

    If you look at the percentages based on ACTIVE sites, Apache actually INCREASED share this month, from 61.88 to 63.34, +1.46, while Microsoft increased at a much slower rate,
    26.40 to 26.62, or +0.22.

    Lest anyone claim that Apache's share is inflated by inactive sites compared to Microsoft, the Netcraft survey shows the Apache share for total active + inactive to be lower than the active share, while Microsoft's share adding inactive sites is HIGHER than it's active site share. This clearly Microsoft's numbers are inflated by a large number of inactive sites.

    In fact, if you look at total number of active sites for the past THREE months, IIS has actually declined, while Apache has increased .

  18. Re:Bubble burst? by b1t+r0t · · Score: 3, Interesting
    I have a 3-character .com domain name which I intentionally picked by using the random number function of a Casio calculator and a lookup table, just so I could have a 3-character name, and I thought it was a pretty decent one, too, for being random. That was back in March 2000.

    But that's not the interesting part. The interesting part was back in September 2000, when I noticed someone had taken the .net of my domain. Sure enough, some idiots with more money than sense had registered every possible 3-character .com and .net name that hadn't yet been taken. Not surprisingly, they didn't renew the .net of my domain in 2001.

    --

    --
    "Open source is good." - Steve Jobs
    "Open source is evil." - Microsoft
  19. Network Solutions problem by NineNine · · Score: 5, Informative

    A big reason that there just aren't many domain names available any more is is Network Solutions, when a domain that they serve as registrar for expires, Network Solutions hold it for themselves. Rumor is that they were going to auction off all of their illegally collected domains at one point, but that still hasn't happened. Network Solutions is currently squatting on several domains of mine that I had let expire.