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Cringely's 2002 Predictions
An anonymous reader submitted Cringley's
2002 predictions. Nothing totally
unexpected: XML will explode (hasn't it already?) and Microsoft will
keep their mits in every big deal in the tech industry. Other stuff
too, like the return of VCs and IPO frenzies (yawn), and that Rich
Media won't quite make it yet in 2002.
Will the MP4 format have copy protection? And will it be really cool? And will it be released multi-platform? All these and more....
Everything is mainstream now.
Actually, you might be surprised. I'm in the middle of working out some code on a raw socket exploit, and it doesn't even require a script kiddie getting a stupid user on IRC to run an executable (it propagates by the UPnP vulnerability, enabled by default and still shipping on XP around the world). The great part is, it can also run as a trojan executable or forced on the user in some "buggy" ActiveX code. It has no problem installing as a normal user thanks to some holes left a little too open in XP, not that most users don't add themselves to the administrator category to make life easier, anyways. I'll never stop being amazed at what Microsoft will ship to try to make money on, it's truly a disgusting product.
However, the solution is not to remove raw sockets, it's to (a) forcibly educate the users, such as making them run through a tutorial on first- boot from a PC, or (b) lock down the system, instead of leaving it open, like MS typically does.
The real solution is at the ISP levels: All ISPs should be mandated (at risk of being held accountable due to negligence for financial loss held by others) to filter out IP spoofing -> If someone is sending out packets from the address a.b.c.d and you know that they're z.y.x.w then shut down their connection or at lest filter the packets out. The whole idea of IP spoofing is absurd. The same holds true for any other manner of malformed packets: They should be dropped at the first router they hit.
I know I read Slashdot, but still, here's my immediate future:
- I haven't upgraded my Win2K to WinXP and probably won't. My next box may in fact be an Apple OSX machine. It's sexier and Unix.
- My Mom and my brother (both newbies) haven't and won't upgrade to XP either because they don't have the cash or any real reason.
- I'd choose a PS2 instead of XBox if only for the bigger library of games.
- I still use my Palm Vx and when I upgrade in the next year, it'll probably be to a Symbian "Smartphone" or a Palm phone. No PocketPC here and no "Stinger."
- I'm a consultant who uses Java mostly and have no use for
.NET - and when I recommend solutions to clients, I stear them away from trapping themselves with a M$ solution.
- I come from the fantastic state of California which hasn't given in to any settlement yet with Microsoft and hopefully won't until there's some real damage done.
What more can I say - it doesn't look rosy for Micosoft at all from my vantage point. Then again, this is only my experience, but it's the only real data I have to go by... Hey, Win2K is great to use, nice and stable and my Microsoft Wheel Mouse with the infred sensor on the bottom just plain rocks. But those were yesterday's purchases. In the coming year, I can see M$ playing much less a role in my life not more.Just my thoughts,
-Russ
Me
RE: " 10. Finally, I think last year's prediction for Cisco Systems will come true this year. I wrote "The answer to every problem with the Internet will continue to be 'pay more money to Cisco.' At current prices the stock is a bargain."
No, I don't own any Cisco stock."
All his predictions are XML, Microsoft and Cisco related. Here's what's really gonna happen as far as business computing:
1) Broadband for the masses will continue to tread water due to bankruptcies, less competition, rising prices and little to no progress on the main technological barriers. Economies of scale due to consolidation will not happen and everyone who writes for PC World and online media will wonder why.
2) The ASP market will no longer be dynamic. After the release of Windows XP, every IT department and individual consumer will be able to realize that virtually no operating system innovations have occurred and that will force people to keep their doors open. Long term commitments will become apparent and begin to happen. Software (even game) manufacturers will realize that PC computing consumers' purchasing power and awareness/savvy has hit a critical mass where the risk/reward ratio for software development will become worth it for product development even if the revenue produced is not a home run.
Just my opinion.....
Fair disclosure: I do own and have owned Cisco stock and call options.
Game: Player 'Donald J Trump' now has AI skill level 'experimental'.
Cringe's articles, are available as a slashbox. Coincidentally, one that I have as a default for my account.
Why is it, that we "need" every weekly article of his, posted as a front page story. Don'tcha think that the people that want to read him already are anyhow?
"Politicians are interested in people. Not that this is always a virtue. Fleas are interested in dogs." P.J. O'Rourke
Maybe you should just moderate this as redundant, since I've posted it in several other Cringely-based stories on /.:
/. start page by editing your user preferences.
::Colz Grigor
You can add the I, Cringely slashbox to your
And slashboxes ought to have comments/discussions associated with them by default, so Anonymous Cowards don't have to submit every darn Cringely article as a story.
Which has nothing to do with raw sockets. Unix allows raw sockets - if you're root. NT allows raw sockets - if you're in the administrators group. XP allows raw sockets - if you're an administrator which for the default home setup means everybody.
I honestly don't get the people who say raw sockets are a security problem. By their arguments, everyone should be forced to use a private, proprietary network behind custom proxy servers, like AOL used to be, so they can't get out onto the raw internet and wreak havoc. Back before AOL became Yet Another ISP, it was darned difficult to launch script kiddie attacks from there against actual Internet sites....
I would scream bloody murder if the Linux gods took raw sockets away from me. Not that they'd be stupid enough to even think about that. Nobody questions the usefulness of tcpdump, which relies on raw sockets.
"How can you claim that you are anti-crack, while still writing a window manager?" — Metacity README
The banks, well, two of the four I have spoken to in the past 2 months, ARE onto this one.
And this is at local business banking manager level. They are querying the entire charging and revenue structure of online businesses, wishing to take on as many of the stages as possible in an effort to get maximum revenues by taking smaller individual commissions on each step.
4 or 5 1.5 or 2.0% fees mounts up pretty quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them started getting in on the delivery aspects soon to offer a single stop trusted, secure, long standing vendor for handling online transactions.
How often do you hear 'our security is as good as that used by the online banks' People trust banks. They could make a serious inroad into some of these markets from the opposite angle to MS.
MS has the consumer computing market sown up - banks have the consumer confidence / trust sewn up.
Which are YOU more likely to get to look after your ecommerce site? I'd go for a bank over a MS passport system every time - IF the service was up to scratch.
Some of the UK banks are taking this massively seriously. Dont underestimate the level of change thats going to hit banking over the coming few years. And with the markets offering negative returns, the banks are finding their coffers expanding as people go for the safe option of long term high interest savings accounts. They have money to play with.