Bob Young says Linux won't rule the desktop
Wee writes "I just came across this interesting Yahoo interview with Bob Young
in which he says that Linux won't rule the desktop but will instead focus on replacing legacy Unix systems and enhancing Linux's embedded presence. He makes some pretty good points. The oddest quote: "So our opportunity is not to replace Microsoft on the PC. If you've got a perfectly good working PC, why you would go through the angst of replacing it?". Not sure where to start answering that one. My wife (a dedicated Win32 user) liked his car analogy. I need to get her to read 'In the Beginning was the Command Line'..."
yet...
I don't think one of the primary goals of Linux should be to replace Windows on the Desktop, but rather to offer an alternative Operating System to individuals and corporations who can't (or don't want to) afford the licensing fees and the cost of upgrades.
~.Evanrude
Complacency leads to regression. If we aren't always striving to make things better, everything will deteriorate. With a strong Linux desktop push, the price of competing software (Windows and MacOS) will drop, features will increase, and everyone will be better off.
Moderation: Put your hand inside the puppet head!
Maybe it's the Life of Brian... Yeah, where the mobs of people where following him around, claiming that silly and sensible things he would say where completely something else, in the end not listening to reason? Well.. sounds like the linux community.
hehe, RMS could play the guy who sits in the pit for silence. Well, at least with looks.
Contrary to popular belief (at least here), Linux is just not ready for the everyday person's desktop. While it's true that it is getting there, why not focus on it's strengths, and let Linux grow as an OS where it fits in and is accepted?
Windows works. It may not be perfect, but it gets the job done, especially when the job is pure entertainment. That's why I have a computer at home, and I bet that's why a large majority of home computers are bought. I also have a linux partition on there, but I haven't booted into linux in over a year. I simply have no need for it, and everything I use my computer for can be done without problems under windows.
-Space for rent
The problem that any number of underdog OS's have these days is overcoming consumer inertia. What I mean by that statement is this: once a set of products has hit a certain point and gains consumer acceptance, it is very hard to change the direction that that market is going. Microsoft has done this again and again with both its operating systems and its application suites, both of which are very closely tied together and tend to pull each other along.
What Young is doing is trying to get Red Hat into those markets where there either isn't consumer inertia toward a product or where the market is unsettled. If he can gain acceptance, then his end goal (making money through pushing Linux) is achieved. All in all it is a pretty smart move.
What Linux needs in general is a robust set of applications that consumers can use transparently with Microsoft products. If attractively priced, this could conceivably pull users to the OS, especially in light of Microsofts new licensing trends.
2 more cents down the drain...
Hmmm...
Linux is a fine desktop replacement, no worse than Windows or MacOSX. If someone wanted to take on those systems, they needed figure out how to bundle Linux with hardware, attract more developers, and market it. But that isn't even the question.
The real question is: after companies like RedHat have extracted much of the value of Linux and other open source software, where are they going to go? What is their vision for the future? "Replacing X with open source software that magically appears" isn't the answer.
In fact, I doubt that in another 10-20 years, we will even have desktops in the traditional sense, and embedded devices will look very different as well. What kind of vision does Young have for that? Not much, it seems.
Linux won't rule the desktop
Gee, I don't know how anyone can say that. Between the consistent user interface, the ease of setting up printing, and the huge game library, Linux is a cinch to take over the desktop computers of the world.
*crickets*
--saint
(I'm just bitter -- still trying to set up CUPS.)
No, Bob is absolutely right. I will say this again and again and again, but no one seems to be listening:
The desktop wars are over. Move on to the next thing.
So Microsoft has won the "desktop" wars. So what? Do you really think that in 5-10 years, people are still going to be using bulky beige boxes to connect to the Internet? No, they are going to be using everything from home entertainment consoles to cell phones to PDAs.
Some of you may remember the days when a "personal" computer was a joke. "Computers" were those giant hulking things that took up an entire room and required their own cooling system. As Bob says, "Microsoft did not convince people to unplug VMS from their Digital VAX systems in 1979. They took advantage of a major shift in technology toward the PC, and they became the de facto standard on the new technology model, being the PC."
The shift in technology now is smaller, faster, wireless, and pervasive. The idea of 'turning on' a computer to 'use the Internet' will become old-fashioned more quickly than you can imagine. By the time a majority of people think that Linux will be ready to rule the PC world, PCs will be the passe way to connect to the Internet. Microsoft is already expanding in this field with the XBox and the tablet PC (which, IMHO, is a natural evolution of the computer.) Anything that is wireless is huge right now.
This whole desktop war is silly. Linux is its best when people don't even know or care what OS their products are running. Look at TiVo. Do I care that it runs Linux? Nope, because it works flawlessly and doesn't require me to know arcane command line tools. TiVo rocks not because it's Linux, but because it does its job and does it well. That's the problem I have with Linux zealots -- they want Linux regardless of whether Linux fits the job or not.
Why is it necessary to force people to relearn something? Instead of parroting Microsoft, let's be innovative. Let's put Linux into the greatest, coolest new devices (TiVo, PDAs, cellphones.) Let's look at where the market will be in 5 years instead of being hyper-focused on beating Microsoft today. Otherwise, Microsoft and the rest of the world will move on, and Linux will be left behind.
(More about this in my journal.)
Simpli - Your source for San Jose dedicated servers and colocation!
Think about that for a minute before you answer. Think about where desktop computing is and where it's going before you answer.
Today's desktops are stressing ease of use and wide application arrays more than anything else. Stability is in there somewhere, but MS has gotten pretty darn good with Win2K and XP, especially if you stick to their office suites.
Linux is NOT easy to use. Sure, it may be easy for US to use, but imagine a secretary, an HR guy, or (God forbid) the boss trying to use it on a daily basis. Give them XWindows and they'll be somewhat happy, but even the best XWindows setup pales in comparison the features and eye candy you'll find on Win2k and XP. And before you belittle that, remember who the end user is. You and I may not care for it, but the vast unwashed masses out there DO. They will demand it, and they don't give two damns about how configurable your window manager is. They want a box that's pretty and functional. Linux does not currently fit that mold very well.
What does Linux do well? It's an awesome server. It stays up longer than Ron Jeremy and Peter North combined, and a competent admin can tweak and tune it all over the place for practically anything. Trying to force that into the desktop market is the classical definition of fitting a nice, sleek roung peg into a very square hole.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Linux may one day dominate the desktop, but it will not much resemble the Linux we know today. Do we really want that? I'd love to see Linux succeed and trounce MS, but I don't want it to compromise the core principals that make it so good today.
In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
I hate it when journalists do this crap.
Bob Young says:
So our opportunity is not to replace Microsoft on the PC.
ZDNet reporter Matthew Broersma says:
Red Hat chairman Bob Young says Windows will continue to rule the desktop!
What a crock! That is NOT what Bob Young said. He said that they have an opportunity to expand their business in new directions. Directions that will be of more benifit to RedHat and their customers then "the desktop".
Why is it so hot? Where am I going? What am I doing in this handbasket?
Of course, learning is hard, and choice is bad. My mistake. The current party line is "Free Software will never rule the desktop." I stand corrected, Ye Mighty Slashdot Gods.
And besides, Bob's affiliated with a company that decided to abandon the desktop as soon as the stock market went bust. Thanks for developing GNOME, guys; however, we just don't think you'll ever amount to anything. Thanks for playing anyway.
Bah. RH used to be good for the world of Linux. I'm not so sure anymore.
Stating on Slashdot that I like cheese since 1997.
Bob Young continues to demonstrate a good grasp of the market, and the position linux can best dominate in it. Red Hat has been distinguished by better management (from what we can see) than the other linux companies so far, and Young's ability to move to the market instead of the hype is setting Red Hat apart.
Yeah, sure, I don't see Red Hat Linux ruling the desktop. I installed one not so long ago as a development platform, simply because that's the standard in that company. But truth is, for the desktop, it's crap wehen you compare directly to SuSE. Mandrake is supposedly also excellent on the desktop, just as some of the other distros. My SuSE 7.3 rocks for the desktop, and it's way easier to install than, say, W2K.
Don't go saying Linux is not ready for the desktop when you just know Red Hat or Debian or LFS or so. There are distros out there that _are_ ready. Just go and test them.
N.b. I'm not debunking Debian etc - I love those, but not for the desktop. (Running SuSE, Debian, Red Hat, have tried Mandrake and others.)
Linux does not, and probably will never, focus on anything.. that's what makes it interesting.
No.
Example: install Ximian Gnome, which supposedly represents the 'friendliest' Linux GUI.
Now try right-clicking on a compressed .tar or .tgz file. You'll notice there is no option to decompress such files.
These are very common in Linux land, you'll need to decompress them all the time.
If you use Ximian Gnome and need to decompress that file, you'll need to hop out to the command line and issue a command. If you're new, you'll also have to read the help to learn the appropriate arguments.
That is not user friendly.
Time to throw a little karma to the wind.
I don't understand why everyone complicates this so much. If you want to capture the desktop market, then you have to cater to what the desktop market wants. That can be summed up in three words: Easy To Use. Here are a few examples of things that aren't easy to use:
- So many configuration options that you don't know where to start, and need a year's education to finish
- A selection of desktop environments, each with a corp of zealots telling you that theirs is better
- A broad base of information that you have to (a) go out and find on the internet, and (b)search through to find your answers.
- Installations with prerequisites that you have to figure out how to find and install yourself
- User account management
- Video, sound, and network card installations that require you to know the model of your card.
If you're attempting to create an operating system with a broad selection of options, you should remember to include the option to not have to mess with these little details.
Unfortunately, this requires the programmers to figure a few things out for the user, and most of us just don't want to do that. Somehow we're always surprised to find out that the user doesn't want to do our work for us.
Mythological Beast
Wake up - the future is arriving faster than you think.
Remember the old quotation from Ghandy...
First they ignore you.
Then they laugh at you.
Then they fight you.
Then you win.
On the server side of things they are on the "they fight at you" stage.
On the client, they are at the "They laugh at you", but that is _second_ stage. Considering that focus on the desktop came after focus on the server that is good enough for me. Actually, the relevance of this arguments about the linux desktop is that MS is starting to see scenarios where they stop laughing and start fighting coming closer. Otherwise it wouldn't be news.
I was running Windows as my primary desktop and Linux as my secondary until three months ago. Now it is the opposite. I have got vcl (www.videolan.org) for dvd viewing and xine (xine.sourceforge.net) for all the other video formats. Mozilla for the web. Kmail for mail. Open Office for those nasty MS office files you get sent. And I play wolfenstein (my preferred game) and all of Id games and a lot of free ones on Linux. I use kinkatta and jabber fot instant messaging.
The packaging systems are improving, so I only have to use urpmi against a ftp server everytime I need something.
And kde is getting better and better.
So basically, Linux can do almost all that Windows will do and I get control, and source code, and no crappy restrictions on things like givving applications to my friends, activation, content rights management, etc.
In fact, it is much better value. And I think a lot of people thinks the same way.
That from a home user point of view. If you look at goverment needs, where they can save so many $$$ by not having to pay and audit licences, and use open data formats, Linux has a lot of scope there as well (see korean, chinese, german, french and UK goverments at different stages of linux use on the desktop).
When his defense asked, "Which computer has Jon Johansen trespassed upon?" the answer was: "His own."
The battle is won, but not the war by any means.
.Net and Microsoft. As long as I know my competitors are sending money to Redmond, I know when times get bad, thier customers...
You are obviously not aware of the poor bastards in our faultering economy that have to deal with the license or upgrade taxes from Microsoft.
IT managers had a taste this year of a slow economy, and when things are bad, the Microsoft tax treadmill on say, 200-300 desktops is a significant piece of money employers would like to use to pay raises, bonuses, health insurance and business opportunities to expand upon. Which, I would like to note, their competitors can't if they have to ship that money to Microsoft.
My entire company in fact, BETS that my competitors will buy into
WILL BE MY CUSTOMERS.
The desktop battle, was won by Microsoft, true, but anyone who says the war is over has never worked in a all IT Microsoft shop in a bad business climate.
The server room battle is now going on, and Linux is winning this battle. Once Linux is firmly entrenched in the enterprise server room...
THEN we will turn our expertise and knowledge and better value all around, towards the desktop.
Uncle Bill and Stevey boy are going to wake up one day and find themselves in a world dominated by Java virtual machines that run everywhere and typically more than not, servers, pda's, cell phones, etc are also running some form of Linux underneath them.
It is already happening.
Those companies that refuse to follow suit will not be able to stay in business against those companies who adopt open source technologies and processes.
Ultimately the new business model for IT is based around people and not hardware or software like it has been for the past 10 years. That is what open source is about.
People/technology not a gadget or a widget.
It is comming, be ready for it.
-hack
Got Geometrodynamics? Awe, too hard to figure out? Too bad.
The real place Linux needs to be on the desktop is in organizations that revolve around Unix.
_ __
I am not talking about the secretaries and the suits. Too many times I have seen programmers and even sysadmins fire up Windoze and then spend the rest of the day inside of a telnet window.
Linux distro folks are missing out on selling Linux to the world of Unix hacks whose organizations simply cannot afford a fleet of Unix workstations. Yes, I know the Sunblades are only $999 but Sun seems uninterested in advertising this fact and most IT orgs already have plenty of PCs so the cost of conversion is nothing.
The last place I worked the corporate IT side told engineering after much bitchin' and moaning that they could use Linux but they would get no support. All the folks programming for the web stuff and the complete systems engineering group went to RedHat.
Right now, I work for an organization about to move both software and systems engineering to SuSE linux the hold up being corporate buy-in.
You might not think this market is that large but think really hard about it. There are many IT groups that use Unix as their primary Server OS. Within those organizations they have many developers and admins who work primarily in those *Nix environments. If there was no market for these groups then companies like Exceed would have died years ago.
_______________________________________________
ACK
One aspect of freedom is choice -- in this case, a choice of applications, a choice of tools, a choice of where your money goes. And just because Linux works well for many applications -- even on the desktop -- does not mean that Windows is *never* a good choice.
I'll lay out some cases in point from my own collection of computers.
My home has more computers than people now -- and in terms of installations, Linux is running about even with Windows. Of my three machines, two are Linux boxes (including my dual-processor IBM workstation and the Toshiba laptop), while the third is a high-end Windows 2000 box. I use the Linux workstations for software development, research, newsgroups, and simulation work, with my e-mail, word processing, and gaming on the Win2K system. It works beautifully; I don't have any hassles when clients and family send me Word files or PowerPoint presentations; why go through the effort of making such things work under Linux when I can have a Windows box at hand? On the flipside, the Linux workstation has vastly improved my coding environment, giving me scientific and exploratory applications Windows can't match. As for the laptop -- well, it ended up running Linux for strange reasons, and I now find it useful to have a portable penguin system.
My wife runs Windows 2K on her rather basic system. She spends her life in e-mail with organizations and companies that are Windows-only; if the Red Cross sends her a disaster plan as a Powerpoint presentation, she can just run it using... uh, Powerpoint. She also games like the rest of the family. I never was fond of emulators (including Wine) -- if you need Windows, why not just use Windows? Good lord, that's like doing all your "Linux" development under Cygwin... (no insult to Cygwin, of course; great product, but not a "real" Unix).
As for my daughters -- the 6 and 11 year-olds share a Windows 98 Pentium 133 that does nothing but play their education titles. No point to Linux there.
The eldest daughter runs a dual-boot system, playing games and learning Photoshop and 3DStudio under Windows while experimenting with Python, Gimp, and 3D rendering with Linux.
Okay, I understand and sympathize with the desire to rid the world of Windows; some days, the Microsoft monopoly makes me want to wipe Windows from all of my systems. I've howled invectives in the direction of Redmond... but then again, I taught my kids some new language this week while trying to get a damned onboard SCSI card working with the latest Linux kernels. Damned aic7xxx driver...
Nothing is perfect; nothing is absolute. Religious zealotry -- of the RMS variety -- turns me off, because I know that brains turn off when beliefs take precedence over rationality. It's not that I disagree with RMS so much as I find his attitude grating and disturbing. Free and open software is taking over my home without excessive conflict; we're doing it when and where it works, and not to win some ideological war.
Freedom is about choice -- if the Linux advocates truly believe in choice, they'll stop attacking those who choose Windows. Make Linux the best it can be, and stop worrying about what Microsoft is doing.
All about me
You would switch away from Windows for these reasons:
1) You don't want to be on the upgrade treadmill, in which you pay money to Microsoft every year, and continue to get software that needs more upgrades. One upgrade at $180 may be acceptable, but $180 per year amounts to $1,800 in ten years.
2) You don't want an operating system with a single point of failure: the registry. The registry is a primitive database that is, in practice, not maintainable. If something goes wrong, the suggested fix (from Microsoft) has been to re-load the operating system and all your programs and configurations and driver upgrades.
3) You are worried that some of the security risks of Windows were deliberately put there for surveillance, by order of the U.S. government. It puzzles you that the United States Department of Justice case is being settled with little or no penalty to Microsoft. Would the U.S. government do something this sneaky? Here are links to 600 pages of articles that say yes: What should be the Response to Violence?
4) You want the flexibility that comes from owning the source code. You may never use the source code, but if you have a big company, and you find some kind of problem, having the source code may be the answer. For example, if there is a bug in a driver for 1,000 pieces of equipment you own, and the manufacturer won't fix it soon enough for you, you can fix it yourself.
5) You want to avoid invasions of business privacy forced on you by Microsoft. Microsoft is requiring that the location and owner of each copy of its XP operating system be disclosed to Microsoft.
Bush's education improvements were