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Large Asteroid Impact Likely -- But Not For A While

Posted by timothy on from the everything-that-rises-must-converge dept.

PhxBlue writes: "Astronomy.com has released a report, submitted to the 5 April Science magazine, that an asteroid known as 1950 DA has 1:300 odds of impacting Earth and causing widespread devastation. The good news is, the impact wouldn't happen until 16 March 2880; and the solutions suggested by the scientists don't involve Tea Leoni or Bruce Willis."

38 comments

  1. was about to send in... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... this link, but then spotted this story. then again michael's working today, so we could have the possibility of a duplicate later since timothy posted this story.

    1. Re:was about to send in... by Captain+Pedantic · · Score: 1

      Good call, except it was Timothy himself who reposted the same damn story.

      --

      None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe.
  2. mmmm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    but tea leoni is fit....

  3. solar nudgeing? by hij · · Score: 1
    Simply altering the surface albedo in places, for example by selectively dropping white chalk or black carbon powder to darken or lighten some regions, could be enough to do the trick.

    Now this is a cool idea. If they make it white on one end and black on the other maybe they could make it spin. If this were possible, could they create a cloud of dust between the asteroid and the sun for a temporary effect?

    --
    Believe nothing -- Buddha
    1. Re:solar nudgeing? by MindStalker · · Score: 1

      hmm spin bad, could cause random fluxuations in orbit, random movement of an object that might hit us.. hmm bad....

    2. Re:solar nudgeing? by hij · · Score: 1

      Well.. yeah.. it would be bad, but it would look cool. It would be even better if it had stripes like a barber pole!

      --
      Believe nothing -- Buddha
    3. Re:solar nudgeing? by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 2

      It probably is already spinning, since pretty much any celestial body you can name does. This is the basis of the Yarkosky effect, in fact.

    4. Re:solar nudgeing? by lommer · · Score: 1

      Ya, maybe for this one it would be bad, but I would like to see it done on some other space-object!

    5. Re:solar nudgeing? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      gee thats a good guess, considering the article says it. Oh and they even include video of it here!

      Posting as AC as to avoid karma whoreing, but if you would like to support my efforts buy a t-shirt or ten.

  4. Another article by Schwamm · · Score: 1

    Yahoo! also has an article about this.

  5. That's worrying... by Violet+Null · · Score: 3, Funny

    Because, I don't know about you, but I plan to be around in 2880. Just as soon as I get this accursed immortality serum to work correctly...

    1. Re:That's worrying... by Sir+Tristam · · Score: 2
      Just as soon as I get this accursed immortality serum to work correctly...
      Come on, it shouldn't be that hard. I'd swear that there are millions of people out there that have managed to get a working immorality serum...

      Chris Beckenbach

    2. Re:That's worrying... by Chelloveck · · Score: 2

      Immortality is a solved problem. You just need some magnetic pinky rings.

      BTW, if anyone needs a volunteer to study the effects of impact with Téa Leoni, well, I'd be willing to sacrifice myself. For the good of humanity, you know...

      --
      Chelloveck
      I give up on debugging. From now on, SIGSEGV is a feature.
    3. Re:That's worrying... by Jonathan_S · · Score: 1

      Just as soon as I get this accursed immortality serum to work correctly...

      Come on, it shouldn't be that hard. I'd swear that there are millions of people out there that have managed to get a working immorality serum...

      Well since you've got a working immorality serum you should have any problem with selling Violet Null some of that immortality serum since (he/she/it) is having problems making their own.

  6. What the Scientists were *really* thinking... by GTRacer · · Score: 4, Funny
    ...the solutions suggested by the scientists don't involve Tea Leoni or Bruce Willis.

    You know damn well at some point, there WAS a solution involving Ms. Leoni and Mr. Willis: Launch them now at the asteroid with sufficient velocity to alter its course by the fraction of a degree needed.

    The beauty of this plan is that it's cheap (no fancy-pants ships or suits needed), humanity benefits, and with luck, they'll keep Aerosmith on standby in case they need more mass...

    GTRacer
    - It's a JOKE. It's not a threat, okay?

    --
    Defending IP by destroying access to it? That makes sense, RIAA/MPAA. Go to the corner until you can play nice!
    1. Re:What the Scientists were *really* thinking... by Peter+Trepan · · Score: 1

      Earth-dwellers can expect to see a new yellow-orange nebula in the night sky as Bruce Willis and Tea Leoni, upon impact, explode into their component cheese atoms.

      --

      Step into a huge movement. Don't Tread In Me.

  7. Bruce willis by Veramocor · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    I know this is going to get modded down as off-topic but that Bruce Willis Asteroid flick was one of the worst movies I ever seen.

    Except maybe Face-Off with John Revolta.

    I want to take his face off, face off.

    I'm Casteur troy! I'm Casteur Troy!

    Palease. Oh another thing Halle Beerry should have lost the academy award the minute she decided to star in operation swordfish with Revolta.

    Karma: Burn baby burn

    --
    Veramocor
    1. Re:Bruce willis by Verne · · Score: 1

      better lay off the crack for a while there...

      --


      There are only two things in this world that smell like fish. And one of them's fish...
    2. Re:Bruce willis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      watching face off and swordfish could destroy a man.

    3. Re:Bruce willis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's how the Scientologists plan to take over the world, by melting everyone's brains with increasingly bad Travolta movies.

  8. Since when is 1:300 *LIKELY* by JPawloski · · Score: 1, Informative

    Since when are those odds *LIKELY* that it will hit Earth? What a sensationalist piece of crap...

    At any rate, and physicist or astronomer will tell you that the uncertainty in these equations is enormous, and that there's a 1/300 chance that the odds 1/300 are even correct.

    1. Re:Since when is 1:300 *LIKELY* by BrianGa · · Score: 2

      I'm going to open up a bag, which contains 300 pills. 299 are sugar pills, while one is rat poison. Would you like a pill?

  9. Let's get our pop references right! by fm6 · · Score: 2

    It was Robert Duvall that saved the world in Deep Impact. Tea Leoni just used the asteroid to help work out her Family Issues. Pity she was so busy doing that, she didn't notice that giant tidal wave...

  10. Who cares? by Wolfkin · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    What are the chances this thing will be around in 2880, or even 2080?

    I mean, I might be concerned if this thing was coming in 15 years, but eight hundred?!

    Randall.

    --
    Property law should use #'EQ, not #'EQUAL.
  11. Note to the people of 2880! by niftyeric · · Score: 2, Funny

    If you can't figure out how to survive this, then you deserve to get hit by it! You'll have 878 years on us!

    --
    proton != antielectron
  12. newscientist link by waterbiscuit · · Score: 2

    Heh I just submitted this story. Oh well.
    Here's the link I used for the NewScientist version. I guess the most interesting thing about this is the theory of shrink-wrapping. I think most of the rest of it is just speculation.

  13. Near Earth Orbit page for this object by EvilBastard · · Score: 4, Informative
    http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/1950da/

    And while you are there, don't forget to print out a copy of http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ to put on your wall, preferably next to the ship date or schedule for your latest project. Makes an excellent background for your desktop also

    Make note of 2000 SG344, which has a cumulative 1 in 1300 chance of hitting us in the period of 2068-2101 also.

    Or go to the Java Orbital Diagram and check out August 2049 for Asteroid 2002 CU11

    When was the last time you bought a lottery ticket ? What are the odds on that-life changing event, vs the odds on that page ?

    Here ends my happy thoughts for the day

    1. Re:Near Earth Orbit page for this object by Mr.Intel · · Score: 2

      Here ends my happy thoughts for the day

      You Evil Bastard...

      --
      ASCII tastes bad dude.
      Binary it is then.
    2. Re:Near Earth Orbit page for this object by PhxBlue · · Score: 1

      When was the last time you bought a lottery ticket ? What are the odds on that-life changing event, vs the odds on that page ?

      This rock will hit earth long before the project I'm on makes its ship date. . .

      --
      !#@%*)anks for hanging up the phone, dear.
    3. Re:Near Earth Orbit page for this object by meiocyte · · Score: 1

      The cumulative product of (1-x) for all the collision probabilities listed is .99679; we have a 0.32% chance (1 in 311) of getting hit by one of these objects in the next 100 years, if I did it right.
      So 1950DA doubles our chance? Neat.

      --
      The thing in the box has no place in the language-game at all; not even as a something; for the box might even be empty.
  14. copyright extension by anthony_dipierro · · Score: 2

    In a related story, congress announced a new copyright extension act, retroactively extending all copyright until 2881. When asked whether the bill would be constitutional, the bill's main proponent responded "The constitution only says that copyright must be 'for limited times'. It says nothing about whether or not humans must still be alive when those limited times expire."

  15. engrave it in a rock by Lepruhkawn · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It seems to me that if our society generates a bunch of data on what objects are likely to hit our planet, that we should make that information easy for future occupants of the planet to find.

    I mean, personally, I don't think it's too far fetched that by the time the 29th century rolls around, humans aren't coming out of some kind of dark age and are just getting back into exploring the solar system and stuff.

    Wouldn't they appreciate a heads up on what might kill them?

    It would be a shame to let all the info go to waste.

    --
    Jesus saves....And takes 1/2 damage.
    1. Re:engrave it in a rock by hij · · Score: 1

      So we should paint the asteroid bright orange and engrave the word DANGEROUS on the side of it? That would have the beneficial side effect of marking it for space ships. Of course this is assuming that ET reads english.

      --
      Believe nothing -- Buddha
    2. Re:engrave it in a rock by Schwarzchild · · Score: 2
      Your idea makes a lot of sense. It's totally conceivable that 900 years from now the world would just be getting out of a some sort of dark ages.

      The Roman Empire lasted for over a thousand years and they created or used ingenious technology (like the arch, concrete, etc.) but some of that technology disappeared after the Empire collapsed a little over a thousand years ago.

      The Greeks also had discovered a lot of science that was only preserved by the people of the Middle East.

      The great library at Alexandria was sacked and I think burned to the ground several thousand years ago.

      Who knows what gems of knowledge were destroyed in that great library that have taken thousands of years to rediscover.

      Maybe we should bury a Cray supercomputer endowed with AI in an underground bunker ala the old Star Trek episode where Kirk was known as Keerock!

      --

      "sweet dreams are made of this..."

  16. i hope... by Transcendent · · Score: 1

    i hope to god that we'll have better weapons to deflect asteroids by that time.....

    ...but also we have the common sense not to use those weapons on our own people...

    1. Re:i hope... by Avatar1000 · · Score: 1

      Naahhh - with all due respect, I hope that weapons technology never even enters into it. Far better to simply pursue space settlement (an idea actually possible with some surprisingly old technology) and the associated space based infra-structure to support it. We've got a few decades, and a space based civilization has lots of advantages to offer; not least is the concept of melting objects like this down for the resources. Hey, PrestO! Threat (and all similar threats) gone, in exchange for a thriving economy where chopping up dinosaur-killers turns a handy profit. Everybody wins.
      Just my two cents.

      --
      I have no Sig.
  17. just a test by Hadlock · · Score: 2

    not sure how many points i get when normal-posting. this is old, so most likely no one will ever read/mod this...

    --
    moox. for a new generation.