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Slate Predicts The End Of TiVo

wiredog writes "Slate has an article about why TiVo (the company, not the idea) is destined to fail. It suffers from the same first mover disadvantage that did in the Newton and the Amiga."

33 of 514 comments (clear)

  1. When I bought my Tivo 2.5 years ago.. by Frank+of+Earth · · Score: 5, Informative

    .. I signed up for the yearly subscription thinking that I probably wouldn't use it for more than a year so why pay 200 bucks for a lifetime membership.

    Well, over two years later and I'm still loving my Tivo. I use it more than any other AV component I own and I couldn't imagine not having it.

    The devotee will even use TiVo as a verb
    You can't buy that kinda of brand name recognition. ie q-tip, xerox

    And compared with a VCR or DVD player, a TiVo is difficult to set up and maintain

    Difficult to setup is accurate, but I'm not sure what is hard to maintain. All you have to do is watch TV shows and click on delete if you don't like them. Hit Thumbs up to stuff you like and thumbs down to stuff you don't. Not generalizing women, but my wife, who isn't that computer saavy has already learned how to bump her Season Passes over mine. I don't think it's difficult at all.

    If TiVo does fall by the wayside, it will leave behind a throng of adoring fans

    *sniff*

  2. DirecTV/TiVo by clutch110 · · Score: 5, Informative

    I just received a notice that DirecTV will be taking over the TiVo service for my unit. They also mentioned that the graphics will change on the interface, but none of the functionality. Does anyone know more about this?

    Also to get a cheap DirecTV/TiVo unit, hit www.americansatellite.com and if you are a new subscriber they have the Phillips unit for $150. I bought mine about 7 months ago at $99. This included the unit, the dish and two installation kits.

    1. Re:DirecTV/TiVo by RedX · · Score: 5, Informative
      I just received a notice that DirecTV will be taking over the TiVo service for my unit. They also mentioned that the graphics will change on the interface, but none of the functionality. Does anyone know more about this?

      Yes, this is true. DirecTV is going to be handling all of the billing for the combo DirecTiVo boxes, and the graphical changes you mention will basically remove the TiVo name and logo from the menus. The good news is that DirecTV will be charging less for the TiVo service now, $4.99/month as opposed to $9.99/month. DirecTV has essentially licensed the TiVo software and service, which is how TiVo hopes to make money from here on and has been their plan on how to do business once they had a somewhat established base market.
      There are many posts above saying that TiVo will die because cable companies, etc. will offer their own product. TiVo's hope is that the cable companies will license the TiVo software and service for their set-top boxes.

    2. Re:DirecTV/TiVo by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      If you have the Total Choice Premeir package($81.99/month) from DirecTV the $4.99 fee is waived, making it free.

    3. Re:DirecTV/TiVo by GregGardner · · Score: 3, Informative

      It's how the DirecTV/Tivo combo boxes work and it's a beautiful thing. That along with only-high-quality recording (it saves the MPEG-2 directly from the satellite), and dual tuners (record two shows at once) and you weep tears of joy when you start using it.

  3. Re:Yeah, they will fail by HeyBob! · · Score: 5, Informative

    Ford didn't invented the car and GE and Bell weren't the first in their businesses either, but like they say: "History is written by the winners..."

  4. up front by cheezus · · Score: 5, Informative

    you can get the box w/ a lifetime subscription for $250 more.

    It's a lot up front, and I think they offer monthly for the sake of people who would rather buy a $400 box than a $650 one.

    But as a happy TiVo subscriber, let me tell you this:

    I would play twice the current $13/month for the TiVo service. It really is worth it!

    --
    /bin/fortune | slashdotsig.sh
    1. Re:up front by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 5, Informative

      Actually, it's lifetime of the box, or lifetime of the company... whichever is shorter! It isn't hard to imagine either of those being close to two years.

    2. Re:up front by marhar · · Score: 3, Informative
      you can get the box w/ a lifetime subscription for $250 more.


      Note that this is for the lifetime of the equipment and not your lifetime...their disclaimer

    3. Re:up front by Kazymyr · · Score: 3, Informative

      I've had a TiVo for 2-1/2 years, and it's still going strong. If you don't do something stupid, as in dropping it from the 5th floor, the box itself is pretty reliable. And for the lifetime of the company - 2 years ago there were the exact same articles predicting the imminent demise of the company. Yet there they still are.

      --
      I hadn't known there were so many idiots in the world until I started using the Internet -Stanislaw Lem
    4. Re:up front by Zathrus · · Score: 5, Informative

      Lifetime of the unit, not of the company, not of you.

      The subscription moves with the unit, not with you. If you buy a TiVo, get a lifetime sub on it, and sell it then you sell the subscription with it. Of course, TiVo's with lifetime subs sell for about $250 more than one without, so currently there's no money lost.

      The obvious downside is that you can't transfer to a different kind of TiVo. If you have cable now, buy a regular TiVo, and then later get DirecTV you can't transfer the subscription to a new DirecTiVo. Or if they come out with a HDTiVo in the future (no, they haven't even speculated on doing such) then you're still stuck with the old one.

      I don't know that this is a hard and fast rule though. There are a few select TiVo subscribers that fell into a grandfather clause where they can transfer their subscription once. They bought lifetime subs prior to the wording being more clear on the matter.

      As far as worrying about the TiVo unit failing -- I haven't heard much hue and cry about faulty machines. The modem in them sucks and dies to even a vague hint of lightning (one of mine has died twice, both times requiring $99 to fix), but there are 3rd parties that will repair them now and a surge protector helps a great deal. The hard drives are replaceable. The fan is the only other moving part, and theoretically replaceable.

    5. Re:up front by bluethundr · · Score: 2, Informative

      I (as a TiVo subscriber) just recently got a letter in the mail stating that TiVo is doing away with the $250 lifetime-membership sometime soon. However, they also claimed that they were lowering the fee from $13 a month to $5 a month! Hopefully this new pricepoint will help it reach a larger marketshare. I'm not sure if this is a deal for DirecTV owners exclusively however (I hope not).

      I myself am also a "movie guy" and not much into "Everybody loves Raymond". But the Starz Network has something called "Starz on Demand" which works with TiVo to automatically TiVo the latest releases for you. That's pretty cool. Mainly I use Tivo for BBC World News, BookTV on CSpan, The Daily Show, and some TechTV stuff. Also, owning the Tivo is the only way I can reliably catch Farscape on a regular basis.

      One thing I think Tivo may have going for it is "mindshare". You may have noticed that I use Tivo as a verb. That seems a ubiquitous term for DVRing. I notice my friends who own DVRs from other manufacturers (like ReplayTV) still say that they "Tivo" this or that. Kind of the way people used to say they were going to "Xerox" something when they wanted make a photocopy. Even if they were using an HP copier!

      --
      Quod scripsi, scripsi.
    6. Re:up front by cybrpnk2 · · Score: 3, Informative

      OK, here goes. 3 hrs per week * 22 weeks is 66 hours. A third of this time is commercials - roughly 24 hours or a solid day per year of wasting your life sitting there listening to CRAP. You spend $400 to reclaim this commercial wasted time by skipping it with a Tivo at about $16 per hour. If you are making $32K per year or more, your time is worth more than $16 per hour. So the TiVO saves you valuable time at a bargain price. PLUS, the second and subsequent years it's "free" and trust me, once you get it you're gonna enjoy those three shows a LOT more than you would setting the VCR 66 times, missing a few times, rewinding the tapes, etc etc...ugh, to think I used to have to mess with that!!! And trust me, once you get the TiVo, you will enjoy other shows, TV in general and your leisure TV time SO MUCH MORE...you just can't understand without trying it. Treat yourself and get one, sell it on EBay if you don't like it. Ha ha ha, like THAT's gonna happen...

    7. Re:up front by Zathrus · · Score: 3, Informative

      Yes. If it's a series 1 box then you can get an ethernet card from 9th Tee - there is a pseudo-PCI connector on the inside of the box and this heavily modified ethernet adaptor can be used. The v3.0 software even includes all the drivers needed - although it's not an officially supported mod still.

      For series 2 boxes you can plug in a USB ethernet adapter to one of the USB 1.1 ports.

      In either case you'll need a firewall, NAT, and something that provides DHCP services (which virtually all Cable/DSL routers do).

  5. Re:Commodore / Amiga not a valid comparison by Rantastic · · Score: 4, Informative
    Add to that the fact that the author seems to have no clue as to the history of the Amiga. It wasn't Comodore's vision at all. It was the vision of Amiga, Inc. Comodore bought the Amiga only after the company was cash strapped and hurting. Then they marketed it into the ground.

    Giving the impression that Comodore had some grand vision is taking credit away from the true visionaries at Amiga. Also, they didn't design it to be a video editing machine. That was the contribution of a third party company, and came much later.

    Nice to see how well researched Slate articles are.

    --
    Ask Slashdot: Where bad ideas meet poor googling skills.
  6. Re:XBox? by Zaknafein500 · · Score: 5, Informative

    Get a DirecTiVo with DirecTV. Perfect picture quality, and the service is only 4.95 a month (vs the 12.95 for a standalone), or free if you have Total Choice Premier.

    --

    "The guide is definitive, reality is frequently inaccurate."
  7. The Innovator's Dilemma by Runny · · Score: 2, Informative

    This phenomenon is well-documented in Clayton Christensen's book The Innovator's Dilemma. It's an interesting read.

  8. Re:One critical flaw ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    Actually, TiVo was out in retail 8 months before Replay. Replay did a "paper" launch a week or so before TiVo by shipping some beta boxes to friends and family and calling the product "shipping"

  9. Tivo already does this. by Moderation+abuser · · Score: 3, Informative

    It's it's most basic ability. You're missing 90% of it's functionality if you don't subscribe to the schedule service. Since the sub is only £200 for the lifetime of the box, it's hardly a big deal.

    --
    Government of the people, by corporate executives, for corporate profits.
  10. ReplayTV does multiple TVs, and much more by Krelnik · · Score: 3, Informative
    What about multiple TVs...

    ReplayTV's latest units (the 4000 and 4500 series) take care of this. You connect them all to your home Ethernet and you can watch shows in the bedroom that you recorded in the living room. They even have enough CPU now to be streaming one show while you record another.

    Replay has also added other features that TIVO doesn't have, like web-based scheduling without compromising the security of your home network, photo viewing and sending shows across the net.

    Sorry to be such a blatant shill, but I've owned a ReplayTV for about 3 years now, and I think they're great. In many ways I think they are much nicer than TIVO. (I don't own stock in SonicBlue or even know anyone who works for them).

  11. Re: TiVo wasn't first by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    The funniest thing about this is TiVo wasn't even first. ReplayTV was first with a DVR to market, long before TiVo. And yes, I am a TiVo owner.... long live TiVo!

  12. Me Too by cybrpnk2 · · Score: 3, Informative

    I bought the lifetime subscription for $199 on sale and folks, its worth every penny. People, if you don't have a Tivo, you CANNOT understand what all the fuss is about. Trust us. Get one. It Is Worth It. The lame ads about pausing live TV are stupid. TiVo is about sitting down once to program the thing - takes an hour pushing buttons on a simple menu - and then (1) you come home to things you want to watch (2) that you can watch whenever you want to (3) without commercials or (4) without worrying about setting up the programming for next week's stuff. This is FUN. TiVo mentally changes what you think about how to watch TV. You have to be nuts to channel surf or watch commercials after using a Tivo for just one week. Even my WIFE is sold on the TiVo. Just get one, you'll see!!!

  13. Re:TiVo won't die -- but it should. by gleffler · · Score: 2, Informative

    The warranty is 90 days, and with proper surge suppression/filtering on the phone line, modem issues are all but suppressed.

    Re: 2 shows at once - ever hear of DirecTiVo? Exact same features as you described above, but it's still being actively developed, whereas UTV (as you know) is not. In addition, TiVo has a sensical scheduling engine (distinguish between first run and repeats) and also has a large and active user community developing more useful 'hacks' for it.

  14. Re:PAY for Tivo?!!!!!! by Klox · · Score: 3, Informative

    This is the one major misconception that non-TiVo owners always make. The fact that TiVo records the shows digitally isn't what makes it great. It's the fact that you tell it "record new episodes of Junkyard Wars" or "record all episodes of Barney" and it does it.

    My family hasn't watched live TV since we got the TiVo. I don't even know what channels some of my shows are on. I just pull up a list of the shows TiVo has recorded and watch what I want. We watch TV when WE want to. If I want to kill some time, I see what TiVo has for me. I can pick-and-choose between shows I like, not whatever happens to be on.

    It's really a change in viewing habits that you don't appreciate it until you've tried it. I think the best marketing strategy TiVo could ever try would be to give out TiVos free for a month or two and see how many people buy it instead of giving it back.

    P.S. TiVo doesn't skip commercials, that's ReplayTV.

  15. Time Warner's cable box with built in DVR by IsThisNickTaken · · Score: 3, Informative

    I just got digital cable with the PVR capability. Time Warner is using the Explorer 8000 from Scientific Atlanta. I had wanted a Tivo but had never got around to buying one. I had been hoping to see the functionality get integrated into the cable box. When they came out in my area, I ordered one.

    From what I hear, the Tivo software is definitely better. The Explorer 8000 has some quirks. You can set it up to record all episodes of something from the interactive guide. At the end of watching the episode, you get asked if you want to delete the show. You do (since you watched it) and it deletes the scheduled recordings of the other episodes! Definitely not intuitive!

    It does not have the thumbs up/down or some of the other nice Tivo features.

    The advantages are:
    1. The digital cable box rental is $5.95 per month. This is the same as regular digital cable boxes.
    2. The PVR service is $10 per month (a little cheaper than Tivo).
    3. There is no $299+ outlay for the box. If it dies, Time Warner replaces it. Yes, you would lose what you had taped.
    4. No need to phone or ethernet hookup. The Guide is pulled in over the already attached cable connection.

    While I am sure Tivo is better in many ways, I am happy with my digital cable box with PVR functionality.

  16. Re:Commodore / Amiga not a valid comparison by jericho4.0 · · Score: 2, Informative

    I was suprised it took this long for someone to point this out. Jay Miner (the Amiga's designer), had a much different vision for the Amiga than Commodore. Amiga geeks the world over agree that the lions share of the blame goes to Commodore.

    --
    "A language that doesn't affect the way you think about programming, is not worth knowing" - Alan Perlis
  17. Re:hope not by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    not to worry

    there is always http://freevo.sourceforge.net ;)

  18. Re:Joe sixpack still has no idea what a TiVo is by MyAss · · Score: 2, Informative

    They have this. The Series2 Tivo's can use a usb to ethernet adapter. And Series 1 users can buy a Turbonet card . (You have to open the Tivo, but it is just as easy as installing a PCI card.) The TIVO with OS > version3 has the drivers built in. You just tell it your dialing prefix is ",#401", and it knows to use the ethernet card.

    --

    They misunderestimated me. -- George W. Bush
  19. Re:TiVo will fail by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative
    Most people do not understand that the Coke in the can costs less then the can itself.
    Most people do not understand the difference between than and then.
  20. And you don't know how to spell (how typical) by HuguesT · · Score: 2, Informative

    It's thermos, not thermus

    Nothing personal, but your attitude sucks.

  21. Re:PAY for Tivo?!!!!!! by Pii · · Score: 4, Informative
    30 Second Skip Code

    "Select" "Play" "Select" "3" "0" "Select"

    You'll hear three "Tivo Tones" letting you know that the command has been accepted. You can disable the feature by entering the same sequence.

    --
    For those that would die defending it, Freedom
    has a sweet taste that the protected will never know.
  22. Rolling Your Own Tivo/ReplayTV by WickywiK · · Score: 3, Informative
    I've been a happy owner of a ReplayTV for over a year now and I'll second everyone's conclusion that it changes your viewing habits. Gone is the time that you zone out in front of the tv. Now, anytime I sit down to watch, I have something I really want to watch (minus the commercials). Not having to suffer through lame commercials means for every hour-long tv show I watch, twenty minutes are not spent watching commercials.

    Want to watch a football but don't want to spend the nice afternoon? Record it and watch it that evening in one hour (I know it's not the same but if you want to watch pure football, it's the fastest option).

    I ran across this article that shows how someone put together their own TIVO for fairly cheaply (if you don't want to drop as much money on a tivo or replayTV). Personally, I think there are more ways to cut corners on his PVR to further drop the price but it's a good attempt--especially with the software that he chose.

      • http://www.gamingnexus.com/Article.asp?ID=1
  23. Re:Commodore / Amiga not a valid comparison by Troy+H+Parker · · Score: 2, Informative

    What about the fact that the Amiga never lost them a dime, and they took the profits and dumped them into PC clones? They never made a dime from PC clones.