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Slate Predicts The End Of TiVo
wiredog writes "Slate has an article about why TiVo (the company, not the idea) is destined to fail. It suffers from the same first mover disadvantage that did in the Newton and the Amiga."
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People have started saying, "I'll just TiVo the show." The name TiVo is directy connected to it's function. Right now, I don't know any other company that does what they do. When I go to a Best Buy, Circuit City, etc. looking for a device to digitally record TV show, I'm going to go look for "TiVo".
I don't think the Commodore 64/Amiga analogy is quite accurate. Somewhat of a slam (apologies), but the Commodore 64 was a very successful product, even by the article's own numbers. 22,000,000 units sold, versus 500,000 TiVos. While Amiga failed on the heel of a successful product, you can't say "Look! TiVo's going to fail! They're trying to make a followup to a successful product! Look at the Commodore 64!"
Okay, I agree a bit in that the TiVo is difficult to extoll the virtues of (in a small number of words), perhaps in the same way as an Amiga. We (consumers) don't have the vocabulary to describe what TiVo does, and that really really has hurt TiVo. Most people just don't get their mind completely wrapped around the product. "Oh. That's the thing that pauses live TV?" "Yeah. Isn't that some kind of television set?"
Perhaps TiVo is more Jack Tramiel than Commodore/Amiga. Jack though that word-of-mouth would carry him through. So much for the Atari home computer division! TiVo needs to educate people on its product.
About the difficult of install? I'd think the learning curve for America Online would be as difficult as a TiVo. But that's its greatest blessing and its greatest bane. It is a very different device.
Probably the best into line I can say when describing a TiVo is the effect: "It completely changes the way you view television at home, and for the better."
Really, in reading this article, I really don't see how they go about providing their title, that it is destined for the trash heap of history. While that might be true, they don't get into any real fact. Just neat stories.
If TiVo (the company) closed down, the "500,000" users (as this article claims) will have a useless appliance..... UNLESS they hack it. Getting the program guide through the Internet would become the acceptable method of usage for TiVo (whereas right now it's a taboo idea only whispered in the dark corners of TiVo hacking message boards), and old TiVo's would sell on eBay for more than what they sell today in the store.
The only thing that keeps my from buying a TiVo is the reoccuring fees. I understand that it is how they make money, but I just don't want or need another monthly bill to continually drain my income. If I just had to buy the device and that was it, I would buy one in a second.
Of course, I don't watch a lot of TV (more of a movie guy), and when I usually do it's usually the history channel or the learning channel. I guess it just isn't important enough in my case to make the jump from progrogrammable VCR to Tivo.
If you had nuts on your chin, would they be chin nuts?
The examples they give would be the same for any PVR, not just TiVo, this includes ReplayTV and XBox2. And a TiVo is really not that hard to use. My mom that has a hard time with email can use my TiVo with no problem. They'll be more scared of a DVD-R because they won't want to waste a blank DVD (yes, even if it's rewritable).
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Slate made a pretty big mistake in their analysis of why TiVo is going to fail. They mostly chalk it up to that "first mover" disadvantage that kills good products.
... which is now dead.
Only, TiVo wasn't the first mover. Panasonic was with the Showstopper
Some of the other tidbits are accurate, such as TiVo's difficulty in explaining what a "PVR" is, but that would be true of ANY device in the market. However, they really aren't trying to compare it to a VCR. The ads have always touted features VCRs just don't have, like the "Trick Play" features that come with having a Live TV "buffer".
There's also one other thing that they neglect to mention (probably because it didn't fit in the author's view), when they mention that other machines will have DVR capabilities too.
TiVo SERVICE is what makes the PVR so popular with TiVo customers. The hardware is all fine and dandy, but it's that software that is easy to use, and the features in it that make it special. TiVo's "Season Passes" can follow programs around when they switch time slots on the same channel. No other competitior can do that, and it's a godsend!
Regardless, TiVo is doing a lot of things right. They MAY go under, but it won't be for any other reason than the mass market just not being ready for it yet.
Right. I'd venture to say if you buy a Tivo, it is because you want/need one, and you know how to use it. They're target market it not (right now) your grandma, but probably the slightly tech-inclined average joe who likes to watch tv without all the cruft. I don't think they are hard to setup for most people, certainly not those who know what they are and want one.
If you had nuts on your chin, would they be chin nuts?
Lifetime of the company not the individual.
An Education is the Font of All Liberty
People who don't have a TiVo belong to at least one of these 3 groups:
* Can't afford it
* Don't know what it is
* Don't watch TV.
I believe the second group is by far the largest. To support TiVo, educate everybody you know about it. Hey, it's Linux based, it's really cool, and they actually perform - GASP, SHOCK! - usability testing.
The article says the Newton died because Apple released it before "ironing out the kinks."
The difference with TiVo is that a TiVo WORKS and does its job well. There are few minor new features I wish my TiVos had (the ability to erase part of a saved show - erase from here, erase to here) but I've rarely had it fail to work a the job it's designed to do.
Why do I have the trepidation that if some other DVR wins the market, like if Echostart kills off the the DirectTiVo in the DirecTV merger, it'll be another case where "the choice of the market" can't do what the original could. "Coming soon! The ability to specify the recording of shows with your favorite actor or director! (like TiVo Wishlists).
Also the article bashing TiVo has a Best Buy ad on the bottom of the page touting the Series 2 TiVo. Nice touch.
Ever dream you could fly? Get up from the Flight Sim. I Fly
What a load of FUD. What's his solution? Buy nothing? Use a VCR as a poor solution? Wait until 2005 when cable companies will supposedly rule the market with integrated PVR/cable box systems?
//e or a Apple //gs? Last time I checked, there wasn't a very big user base for those, either. Too bad he didn't pine on Betamax, the laserdisc, minidisc, or any of the other technologies many people still consider superior to their peers and still use today.
No matter what happens, I have had plenty of use from my TiVo and I can't imagine watching TV without it. I think I have watched live TV twice since I purchased my unit many moons ago.
Come on, Koerner, it's called technology. I had a C= 64, and an Amiga 1000. I used the heck out of them. Early adopter? What was I supposed to do, buy nothing? Or an Apple
We're tech savvy people. We will pay for good technology. We don't wait around for generations of a product to come out, since we know a better one is always going to come out. Technology goes stale. It's part of the game. I don't care if someone wants to hide in the corner, afraid to buy technology because they think like this guy. I'll be sitting there, with my latest geek toy, enjoying it until it's time for an upgrade.
While I'm certain that dedicated Tivo Slashdotters will jump all over the story, I wanted to focus on the premise that simply because it is first, it will fail. First movers suffer from the idea not being complete. Newton's handwriting recognition was dismal, making it impossible to rely on. Sure it was first, defined the category and created a model for others to improve upon, but it stunk. Tivo is really well thought out. It doesn't crash, it has a simple intuitive interface, and it is fun to use. They take an incedibly complicated concept and reduce it to a remote control driven interface. Mircosoft crashed and burned with their ultimateTV mis-adventure trying to copy Tivo. Tivo has some real first mover challenges since the concept is truly different. The authors disucssion about Recordable DVDs misses the point of Tivo's real value. Tivo makes it incredibly easy to record a bunch of shows and get to them. Anything with a removable medium means that you need to put the medium in to record. Tivo eliminates that. If I don't get to one of the 5 instances of Cheers that Tivo recorded for me, it prioritizes and overwrites. First movers have the challange of balancing the desire to be first to market with the need to get the product right. Tivo's product is right on.
For anyone out there that watches TV more than 1 hour per week. Get a TIVO or a Replay TV. They are so worth it. It will forever change your viewing habits (for the better), you will never look back. My wife is pretty close to being a technophobe, but she absolutely loves our ReplayTV. Its easy to use, there is always something on that she wants to watch now.
The only downside to having one is that you completely lose track of when stuff is on. Makes it a little hard to participate in the watercooler discussions about certain shows. Not a big deal, but it does happen.
I personally really enjoy sitting down and watch 2 or 3 episodes of the same show in a row. Plus, pausing live TV is about the most useful feature for the parent of a small child that I could imagine.
Anyway, buy one, you won't regret it.
No, I don't work for TIVO or ReplayTV or any other company along those lines.
Casca
Doncha just hate to see good sound products have to struggle slowly up the market acceptance curve while various cruddy products get to be a lot more ubiquitous than they deserve? I do.
I own 2 TiVo's that I've upgraded so combined they hold about one third of terabyte of disk space. I love `em. My wife loves `em. I didn't mind shelling out the $500 for 2 lifetime subscriptions. I find the interface simple and intuitive. There are only minor inconveniences, like the plus and minus few minute automatic buffers on the ends of shows colliding in an non-intelligent way when shows on the same channel and type (eg, marathon sessions of back to back episodes).
I think you find astounding satisfaction with TiVo's from their owners.
At the same time, people outside the geek community are generally unaware of the entire concept of digital PVR and have never heard of a TiVo.
Word of mouth advertising is precious, but slow. It will be really interesting to see if TiVo gets enough growth in its customer base to bring it into profitability or (more likely) to where it gets bought out by some M&A hungry firm and the techy founders can retire wealthy and stop worrying about important but boring business issues. They desperately lack a big general advertising push. OTOH, one of the big selling points, speeding through commercials at 20x or 60x seems like it might raise a few eyebrows in the same advertising community!
I'm curious if TiVo's growth rate is increasing, whether there is any acceleration in TiVo's market.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
Actually that kind of brand recognition just dilutes the brand. It means people don't care whether you use a Xerox or a Canon just as long as they get a copy.
It wasn't long ago people were piling obscene
amounts of moneys on start ups because they might be the next microsoft. Now this joker (and I've heard it elsewhere lately) is saying that start ups are bad because they don't have the wisdom to compete in the big bad marketplace. Did all companies just spring forth from one big meta-company called Adam and Eve LLC while all of the start ups have failed?
Where are all of TiVo's competitors? I don't see them. TiVo is the only company that offers what they offer in so far as I've seen.
They have a good name associated in the public's mind with excellence. Anyone who owns a TiVo will tell you its great. They also have excellent customer relations; refusing to cave in to he MPAA's demands and standing up for their customer's right to skip commercials endeared them to their customers.
I don't see TiVo failing anytime soon. Yes, they haven't made a profit...yet. Being realistic, its only a matter of time before such devices begin to become common-place. They'll be sold with TV's standard and in computers. And as that starts to hapen, TiVo will be the one who's products will be used for it. Why TiVo as opposed to MS' products? Because TiVo has a name associated with excellence, and a good reputation.
There is no such thing as first-comers disadvantage. Quite the opposite, there's a finder's reward for the company that comes up with an innovative and original idea or product. Eidos sold 30-million copies of Tomb Raider games (from their introduction till today) off of such a finder's reward, because no one else had a product which even compared.
There is, however, such a thing as a startup disadvantage, because you have nothing to fall back on and have to claw your way up from the bottom. TiVo may be an upstart, but they have a viable business model which will rake in plenty of money soon enough.
social sciences can never use experience to verify their statemen
Anyone with a TiVo will tell you that it has the absolute highest "Wife Acceptance Factor" of any piece of home electronics. Don't get "permission" first ... just bring it home, set it up, and show her how to skip commercials and record something like Law and Order. Trust me, that will do it.
Yes, and in stores too - picked one up last week. I'd been sceptical for ages but I needed a new VCR anyway and at 150 quid it's the same price as a decent one. The 10/month sub isn't much next to the Sky subscription, ISDN, ISP sub, etc so no big problem there.
Can't imagine life without one now - never used to bother recording anything, especially from Sky and needing to faff about putting the box to the right channel. I don't watch a lot of TV, but it's fantastic to have a few hours a week where I can just flake out in front of some decent TV for a change.
Since that price drop, I know half a dozen people who've gone out and bought them too. TiVo will do just fine IMO.
Well, while repeating history is a weak argument by itself, are you certain that Nintendo, McDonald's, and WalMart were the first pioneers in there respective fields?
Being a geek, I remember Atari's home systems with fondness, which got stomped out by nintendo when the NES was released. The withered up to the Atari Jaguar, but the home console market clearly did not go to the pioneers. Nintendo was clearly not in the game from the beginning..... I don't know about the fast food or retail outlet histories, but I can tell you that Nintendo would be evidence to support, not detract from their argument.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
TiVo will fail because most people cannot understand what it it.
Most people fail to understand that what they see on the TV screen does not control what their VCR records.
Most people do not understand that when they dial the phone, a bunch of computers are digitizing their voice and routing it around, converting back to sound, and playing to the person they called.
Most people do not understand why the refridgerator gets cold inside.
Most people do not understand that modern "Analog" clocks are also digital.
Most people have no idea how a thermus knows when to stay hot and when to stay cold.
Most people in places where snow is uncommon do not understand that it makes the roads slick.
Most people pay for expensive water when it is free at water fountains everywhere.
Most people do not understand that the Coke in the can costs less then the can itself.
Most people don't understand what is wrong with Microsoft software.
Most people don't understand the difference between a surge protector and an outlet strip.
Most people (in the USA) don't vote.
Most people don't understand that silica is not edible.
Most people don't understand that they should not touch hot surfaces.
Most people don't understand that coffee is served hot, unless the word "iced" appears in front of it.
Most people don't understand the game of chess.
Ask Slashdot: Where bad ideas meet poor googling skills.
I don't see any future for a TiVo or similar as a separate unit, to be honest. It seems to make sense to integrate the TiVo like device and the set top box for your cable/satellite/digital terrestrial service into one machine. For one thing, I don't see the point of receiving separate program information from TiVo when a digital television service is already sending an electronic program guide. For another, there is a certain amount of redundancy in the hardware (MPEG-2 decoding etc) and money can be saved by building one box only. For a third thing, a common user interface for the STB and the PVR is surely a good thing. (Hopefully this can be DVB-MHP based, and common to all networks, too). Finally, your cable or satellite provider already has a billing system with which to charge you a monthly fee, and money can be saved by getting rid of the duplication. (It may be easier to persuade people to pay a few dollars extra for "deluxe" satellite service that includes a PVR than to get them to pay money to a different company too).
BSkyB in the UK already does this. I suspect other providers do too.
Michael.
I've had TiVo for almost three years, and it's crazy to compare it to a VCR. They are nothing alike, the quantitative difference between what they can do is so great that it becomes qualitative.
With TiVo, TV is no longer a time-oriented medium. You don't watch shows when they're on, you watch them when you want to. The only way time matters is that a new show is only available on or after a certain time. It's more like a webcast, or a magazine-type site like The Onion. You're not required to sit there in front of your computer at 6 AM Monday every week to watch the new update of The Onion. You can watch it any time you want, it's just that you know a new one is available on a regular basis. All of TV is that way once you have TiVo.
Of course TiVo isn't the only way to get this. You can use Replay, or Microsoft's new box, or with a lot more effort you can set up a computer to do it. Any of these will give you those improvements.
But whatever you do, don't make the mistake of thinking it's a VCR. It's not, it's a device that turns TV into something that's more like a subset of the web, in that you have instant access to many, many hours of content, whatever has been updated since you viewed it last.
See also Telephone, Television, Electricity... Just because a product is first to market (or in this case, defining a market) does not mean it is doomed to failure. If you look at the companies that have invested in Tivo, you see that they'll survive (even if that means they are simply acquired). They have a best-of-breed product, a regonizable brand, and the market that they have defined is set to explode.
You've heard the song... 500 channels and there's nothing on.
Really, the problem isn't that there isn't anything on. The problem is that there's so much on, that it becomes increasingly impossible to filter the noise, and find that which is truly appealing to you, the viewer.
Tivo makes this possible. You don't tell it what time you want to record something. You tell it what show to record, regardless of when it is on. You tell it what genres you like, what actors you prefer, what directors meet your expectations. It does the rest.
You can not appreciate how this device will transform your relationship with television. It makes television useful, and entertaining, and it does this by catering to you, as an individual, rather than by allowing a television network to pour some target demographics into the plot generation device so that the program hits all of the right population segments.
I'm no longer "White males, 25 - 35, with a household income between X and Y."
Since I got Tivo, now I'm just me, and I watch the shows that appeal to me, and I watch them when my schedule allows me to.
For those that would die defending it, Freedom
has a sweet taste that the protected will never know.