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Which Desktop Distro Will Die First?
Over at NewsForge, Roblimo asks the musical question of which of the several recently released "desktop oriented" Linux distributions won't survive the coming year. It's nice to see user-centric distributions at all, but it really is a niche market for now. Apropos that,
psykocrime writes "The fine folks at UnitedLinux have issued a Press Release announcing UnitedLinux 1.0.
Should be interesting to see whether this sinks or swims, considering the general ambivalence (at best) or even outright hostility (at worst) that most of the talk about United Linux has met, from the Linux community.
Questions about GPL compliance, per-set licensing terms, etc... is this the future or Linux or just another albatross?" And J. J. Ramsey writes "BeyondUnreal reviews not only Xandros Desktop's installation, but also shows what this distro's $99 price tag actually gets you. Read more here. LinuxPlanet also has an in-depth review of its own."
Of the 'real' companies, I'm afraid the small will die first.
Redhat (possibly et. al.) have the best chance of success in the business world because the have:
a) Industry credibility
b) A half decent support organisation
No serious business customer is going to invest any money without those...
# init 5
Connection closed.
Oh...
#2, #4...
Why don't they all merge?
United Linux is crap
I think you answered your own question.
I've seen Michael Robertson, CEO of Lindows.com, speak (at Debconf 2) - and I can tell you that I am certain that Lindows.com will not be yet another dropout of the Desktop Linux business.
How am I sure?
Michael's a salesman, pure and simple. He speaks with passion and he makes you love him and his company - and I've heard that he succeeded in convincing a lot of people who attended Debconf. You should be aware this is coming from a group of people who are probably a lot less friendly to corporate (particularly proprietary corporate) involvement in the free software world.
Michael's ability to make the connections, to sell his company and his vision - that's what's going to make the difference. I've interviewed for a job at Xandros, and I'm sure they've got good people technically (I'm saying this sight unseen), but there's one thing Lycoris, Xandros and all the rest don't have - Michael Robertson. He will make Lindows.com succeed, I guarantee you.
(Of course, this is discounting the huge war chest of money he got from the sale of mp3.com. I'll bet he could fund Lindows.com for a lot of years even if he never sold a single product.)
There *is* a Linux based version called Blue-Eyed OS (YALD - yet another Linux distro), but I think that the speedy and efficient OpenBeos will make some waves, especially in the "Digital Hub" arena.
If you haven't tried it, you should see what I'm talking about. There is a free download at Bebits.com (in my sig) - Personal, Max and Max Lite distros are available.
Ain't enough 'O's in smooth to describe Beos.
I'll take the plunge and post for the first time in my life.
No one will pay for desktop linux. Why? Because people who pay for OSs are generally businesses, and businesses want productivity. There's just not enough of that in Linux desktop apps. If you're going to pay, you may as well pay for what's going to give you the most bang for your buck. And that's Windows.
I am not anti-Linux, at all. I cringe at Windows-based servers, and I fully realize Unix-based server power and flexibility, and encourage my clients to consider it. One of my clients moved to Red Hat and they pay RH some nominal fee for every RH server they ship out. Not even for that RH Network thing. They just pay some ammount to ensure that RH continues its development.
And yet, these guys use Windows on the desktops in the office. They are all Unix professionals. But for shit they need to do on the workstation, Windows can't be beat.
Ecce Europa - Web Design for Business
I think it was intentional to show that the moderators don't even read half of what they're moderating.
this is not Insightful.
I don't believe that they should merge. If they did I would have to put up w/the tons of shit from Mandrake and RedHat while all I want is Debian.
What's wrong w/Mandrake? What isn't? That's my opinion and that's yours... That's why I don't want Linux distributions to merge.
Why is UL crap? b/c they are trying to band against what they believe is an attempt by one distribution to gain too much power.
I don't think that UL will gain much ground but that doesn't mean it's crap.
The problem with United Linux as I see it is that its a standard. Suse can release a "United Linux Conforming" distro along with their regular distro. Same thing with all the other members. When I say merge I say "don't create some kind of standard", I mean seriously merge. Become the same company, release one distro that is aimed at the desktop. Hack on wine (that seems to be the current trend, although I think its a deadend in the long run), work on improving XFree86 drivers for nvidia and ati, etc cards. Work on improving usability for kde. That kind of stuff. Pay developers to work on key projects that will benefit your distro and then put out one hell of a product.
can't sleep slashdot will eat me
2003 could be an interesting year if Sun
bought RedHat. The numbers work: at 862M
market cap, RHAT is 10% of Sun's market
cap. Plus, Sun has 5B+ of cash in the bank.
It may be worth it, just for the transient
effect of having all of the hardware vendors
who partner with Redhat scurry to find a new
Linux vendor. That's six months of FUD, during
which Sun can launch their new Linux hardware
as a safe choice against Dell and IBM and HP.
The long-term value of RedHat is an extra.
Microsoft(R) Windows(TM) 98,ME,2000,XP.
Well, it won't survive in my business anyway.
I simply don't have the time to administer technically-inferior products distributed by illegal monopolies.
"Nine times out of ten, starting a fire is not the best way to solve the problem." - my wife
1.) if you are a comp sci major (as am i)...how could you possibly like windows (besides the obvious). have you taken a look at the size of the MSDN libs lately?!?!? hello...in .NET they DEPRICATED IOSTREAM.H!!! never mind the bloat that goes into their APIs.
2.) not evey single person is in your situation. i have never said "i can't do this in linux, i must re-boot to windows". if you are a comp-sci major that is only interested in game development or 3d rendering, i can understand, but even heavy duty rendering is done on *nix systems. very few of the 3d visualization systems i've worked on were windows based...
3.) we DO have features and smooth interfaces...we also have a lack of both. it depends on the disto, packages installed, etc.
4.) my sound card, zip drive, webcam, nic card, video card, and joystick all work in linux. the only time you tend to run into the problem of hardware incompatability is when you are running hardware that is made by companies with chipsets that aren't in common usage, or the company doesn't want to release the info to developers that they need to write open source implamentations of the drivers. if you stick with hardware that is even remotely common you shouldn't have a problem. if so...a great wizzard comp-sci major like you should have a problem looking at either the man page or linuxdocs.org right???
-frozen
I'm not always the brightest pixel in the stream
I too am a compsci major and I have found that I cannot code in windows anymore. The linux environment is simply too well equiped for programming not to mention how much I use ssh to use labs remotely. That being said I still find myself constantly wondering how to do task X, what do I use to uncompress this (yeah I know man pages and the gui acn do it also), how do I install this, and why I haven't I had sound for over a week:)
But I often have the "Ah shit I am in Linux, now I need to reboot to windows before I can do this" moment."
Other than some games or having to talk to someone on MSN (not for a few months) I pretty much have this urge finally kicked unless I want to print something...
I stole this Sig
Because it will be the first that Microsoft attacks.
second of all kde 3 (in my opinion, and that's what we are talking about here, is oppinion) is getting pretty polished.
third, as far as e-mail clients go...one is as good as the next. if we are talking about outlook + exchange i can see your point. other than that...we (when i worked for an isp) encouraged our users to use eudora because most found it was easier to use, less chance of executing a virus, and less hassle to support.
fourth, most people do run decent hardware. when i worked for an isp, we flat out REFUSED to support winmodems. we didn't care what os you used, we didn't like dealing with the headache, so it's not a windows issue...it's a hardware issue. anyone who chooses to use hardare that isn't "mainstream" runs a risk, whether in linux or windows, as to whether or not they will recieve support, will it work, etc. after all...with XP, to be supported, the driver has to be certified by MS. if some podunk NIC is giving you a problem, it will probably be a problem no matter what. in linux, at least you have the advantage of forums to tell you if you f*cked, or if there is a fix. try getting that help from MS.
all that aside. i'm not saying that MS doesn't have it's place, but what i'm trying to say is that Linux isn't as nasty/hard/obtuse as most people make it out to be. do i have any illusions that linux will rule the world? no. we can be competitive given the chance...
-frozen
I'm not always the brightest pixel in the stream
At a time when MS continues to split Windows into Pro, Server, ME, XP, 2K, CE, Embedded, yadda yadda.
2) Only 1 desktop/windows manager
Identical to XP, right? Or Mac?
3) A more stable X-Window where it doesn't crash the whole operating system
Fix your machine, none of my boxes have had an X crash in years. Lots of
4) Consistent look and feel (btw, Bluecurve is a joke)
As consistent as the look and feel of say, Media Player and Excel. Yah.
5) More complete manual
Something as in depth and technical as the one shipped with pre-installed Windows? What's it called, F1 isn't it? Or Clippy?
6) More drivers for hardware
Than what? The biggest bitch I hear about XP is the lack of solid drivers, the second biggest that companies are starting to charge for them.What typical dektop hardware doesn't a distro like Mandrake support out of the box, or with as much surfing for drivers as Win requires?
If you're going to troll, show the minimum level of respect for the readers. Try running linux first and come up with original distortions, don't just copy and paste from the ones repeated here.
I believe that Lindows is charging for some of their own technology, including their Win32 implementation. Actually the most cost efffective way to obtain a copy would be to buy a Wal-Mart PC with a version full version of the OS.
ok...then have you used jdk for linux? if so, why? java is an open standard (or was ment to be)...so why develop for only the MS implamentation?
I tried moving to Gentoo recently at home and failed. Why? Games, Palm, Photoshop. GIMP doesn't compare to Photoshop
that depends totaly on what you are doing. for most users, gimp is plenty. in fact, on my windows partition (granted i haven't booted it in about a year or so), gimp worked fine for everything i needed it to do. unless you are a serious photoshop developer, gimp will work fine. never mind the plugins that are availible for it (both free and non-free).
What Linux doesn't have is a *consistent* interface. Yeah, GNOME looks funky. KDE is looking sweet these days too. But why should the user be subjected to different UIs and interface standards (copy-paste etc.) depending on the toolkit the programmer chose? granted this is true. however...highlight and middle-click (both left and right button at the same time for those emulating 3 buttons) is far nicer than the ^c ^v of windows, and is pretty standard in the XFree86 system (WM usually doesn't make a difference). true *nix developers need to choose their interface, shortcuts, etc. i have, however, run into several programs in windows that didn't behave as though i though they would/should. again, this a a programmings issue, not an OS issue.
Hardware...Linux won't even recognise my scanner (Canon FB630U) despite the SANE version I'm using supporting it. My Palm is out as QuickOffice doesn't sync with Linux (and I'm too lazy to write a conduit, despite QO files being just HTML on the Palm side). Oh, and it doesn't like all the buttons on my Logitech Mouseman. Dang nabbit.
my mouseman works just fine...i just told XF86 that i was using a mouseman and it was fine. this step shouldn't be necisary granted, but many distros include and autodetect function that will config this for you...so it's a non issue. as for your scanner...i have posted many times about the manufacturer not helping open source people develop drivers for hardware. oh, and palm works find under linux...(depends on distro, etc...). i spent maybe 2 hours total configuring my desktop and server in linux. i spent more that that with 1 windows installation alone.
the bottom line is that everyone's experiance is different. can linux take the desktop? yes, and you are right, it will take a little work for it to do so. on the other hand, for the common tasks of an office environment, linux (with a skillfull admin), could easily smack windows down.
i have taken the time to post to most of the responses here, which i normaly don't do...but if i am wrong, or am incorrect...e-mail me...i dare you to prove me wrong. in fact, i hope you do.
-frozen
frozencesium@hotmail.com
I'm not always the brightest pixel in the stream
I know some people will be upset at this, but Red Hat has more staying power than all of the other Linuxes combined (other than Debian and Mandrake). I don't have anything against the other linuxes, but let's face it what easily sets RH apart is that they have the most clout with major businesses here in the US and abroad. I think even Linus still uses RH! No other Linux has that kind of credibility factor going for it. With RH 8.0, the look and feel of the desktop seems professional and appears to be striving towards some type of consistent feel, look etc....and this is where linux IMHO is really lacking. A business linux on the on the server and even more importantly on desktops has to have some level of consistency. I hope RH understands this concept. What I think the linux distributors really need to do is to get together and finally decide on a standard configuration for /etc and init scripts....the resulting linuxes then can be called standard linux. That doesn't mean there can't be non standard linuxes, but I think it would go a long way in getting linux accepted. It's clear to me that RH knows they are on the way to being the standards leader for linux and they don't have much competition.
"You helped our nation celebrate its bicentennial in 17 -- 1976." --George W. Bush, to Queen Elizabeth, Wash
Sorry to ask a stupid question... I've been a SuSE user for years now, after having graduated from Slackware (go figure, slack still rules tho).... but... where can I download UnitedLinux? Is my SuSE 8.1 "UnitedLinux" and if so what about the SCO and Turbo and Connectiva downloads? Are they, too? If so, the UL group has done a worthless job of branding and consumer-recognition. If not, then this "1.0" release is useless since it can't be readily downloaded. I pay for my Linux distributions (Yes, I did buy Slackware CDs years ago, and yes, I even had a SuSE "subscription" which mysteriously died a few years ago, and I still purchase every other SuSE pro release) but I certainly wouldn't purchase one I couldn't download/test first.
Am I insane here? (ok bad question) Am I out of line here?
at least debian is easy to figure out how to pronounce:)
before you call me stupid, read this
to quote:
"...as Purdue undergraduate Ian Murdock flipped through a Unix magazine...[stuff]...fusing his first name with that of his girlfriend Debra, Murdock founded what would become Linux's most popular non-commercial distribution -- Debian GNU/Linux."
so that's deb[ra]Ian...
not Deebian..
(and for the record, I do use debian as a desktop os for my desktop, my laptop, and my girlfriend's desktop)
Looking for Book Reviews? Check out Literary Escapism.
SuSE is largely kept afloat by funding from IBM, who have just pulled that funding. As of last week, SuSE had 40 days of working capital left.
'On the Verge of Apotheosis' Linux: Gentoo. Total customization? This is fast becoming the 'l33t' of the 'l33t'.
;)
Ok, hands up how many Gentoo users had to look that word up to decide if they needed to get defensive about their distro...
(I did)
Hey,
You should write the guys at AcidPlanet and request a Linux or Mac version of Acid. I already have, but I may be the only one. I don't know.
What we need in the open-source world more than ANYTHING is a site linked off Slashdot which organizes our grassroots letter-writing efforts, so that we can have 50,000 Debian users "Slashdot" our favorite app vendors with requests for linux versions of their software. If there are enough requests, the code houses WILL come around. These "name" apps draw newbies like flies. The people I talk to often won't even consider using alternatives. We need to get organized and throw our numbers around, and I know from reading Slashdot that the Linux guys can argue their point very well indeed. We just need focus and direction.
Unless we get this, ALL linux distros will die for lack of mainstream productivity apps. And it's hurting Apple too, though you likely won't hear it admitted. It seems everyone I know has one app that they can't migrate without having and for which there's no suitable substitute; be it Acid Pro, my dads Metastock stock market program, or my friend's Counterstrike, there's always something. And the more "name brand" apps we have, the easier and more enticing for people to switch.
BlackBolt
P.S. My manager has Lindows 2 running at home, and except that he had to buy a new modem, and that the kid's cereal box games won't run on it, they love it - especially Tux Racer!
They'd never be able to use Linux without something like click-and-run. Even apt-get boggled him when I explained it.
Ruined your day? Think about the sweet potato. Not so sweet any more ...
That all depends on whom you ask. You must not have ever met any jumping, cheering fans (shills?) who give applause on command. They would say that, on the contrary, this makes it even sweeter.
This would MAKE their day. Such a potato would be rare indeed, and valued due to limited supply.
Those who would give up liberty in exchange for security and DRM should switch to Microsoft Palladium!
Examples:
Any distro that can remove some of these confusing things and make it super easy for ANYONE, not just us geeks, will have the ultimate success on the desktop or anywhere else for that matter. Even some IT people don't want to have to struggle to do things that should be simple. The fact is that easy things should be easy...maybe most users don't need 700 ways to do the same thing. Linux has how many text editors and I still can't find one that I like. Yes, I take pride in the fact that I can hack the crap out of a linux box and make it do what I want and even put it to use in critical business applications, but most people couldn't give a rat's ass about that.
Uhhhh, yeah, thath dithgustin. [The lady's man]