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Ask Nicholas Petreley About Linux Usage Statistics
This Slashdot discusssion, about a story Nick wrote, is already going (and heated). I did a NewsForge interview with a SuSE rep who quotes an IDC study that says Linux desktop use will double by 2004. Sounds nice, but how reliable are all these statistics? Nick's been studying Linux use in depth lately, so let's ask him directly what all of these numbers mean, if anything, and how IDC, Evans Data, and other analysts get and massage them. We'll post Nick's answers to 10 of the highest-moderated questions as soon as he gets them back to us.
What is the biggest hurdle, in your opinion, for Linux to be on everyone's desktop?
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Do you think statistics are nothing more of a marketing tool, and should the open source community use these numbers (usually squeued) to get some leverage when promoting open source alternatives to the higher ups?
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Do you see announcements from heavy hitters (like Dell, IBM, etc) helping sway more 'desktop users' to switching to Linux?
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Obviously you are biased to Linux. My question is do you use Windows? Honestly, I have a hard time believing statistics from a one sided person. So if you use Windows as much as Linux and see the pluses to both operating systems, then I'm more likely to take what you say seriously.
Good quote, too many chars. Seriously, the slashdot 120 char limit sucks!
Part of the problem in counting the number of Linux desktops/servers/etc. is that anyone can get it from any of a million different places (friends, ftp, subscriptions, etc.), but the industry tends only to count sales. I know for a fact that every CD I have of Linux I have installed it on at least 10 other systems...some are upgrades, others are new users, and still others moving over from another distro.
And this leads to the other problem...what are the *real* usage stats on distros? It's hard to tell. From talking to people, a lot of people use Slackware and Debian for servers, Red Hat, Suse and Mandrake for desktops...but how can we really count who is using what?
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...the one where 40% of developers are writing mainly to Linux. Where does that stat come from, and what does "developers" mean? It sounds really nice, but if it were true I as a Linux user would expect to see a lot more apps. Does it come from Sourceforge numbers? Does it come from a poll at a website; maybe a Slashdot, Kuro5hin or Newsforge poll? Is it of *all* developers, or of *paid* developers, or of developers of open-source developers or in-house developers or developers of commercial software? Does it include platform-agnostic developers (ie. Java/ perl/ ASP/ PHP/ .NET)? If so, which side does it put them on? Also, what is the error margin of the poll?
I know a bit about statistics, and more about Linux, and something smells fishy. Linux is good, so I figure the numbers are bad.
What stocks do you own?
Do you feel obvious relationship to and advocacy of Linux skew any statistics that you would release or predict?
Does this bias (and it would be difficult to deny that it's apparent) affect how we as a community and the less Linux-savvy view these numbers?
If you could say in two sentences why I should use Linux instead of Windows or MacOS or anything else for that matter, what would you say?
"I only speak the truth"
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Do you think that Linux will ever overtake MS and Apple on the desktop? If so, why and how? If not, again why?
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How much do you think that Linux usage statistics reflect the public's understanding of the licensing issues involved with Open Source (and Free) software ?
Or how about an alternative perspective.
Will Linux lose market share, especially in its server status?
Does this anticipate growth in Microsoft based servers?
Will this further Palladium's potential integration into hardware?
Can they forsee an end to when Linux will lose it's ability to continue as free software?
Several obvious possibilities come to mind:
1. lower cost alternatives to proprietary tools
2. momentum from Perl, Python and PHP being developed first on *nix
3. inherent advantages such as stability and source code availability
4. capability to fine tune services such as email, web, etc.
With all these advantages, what do you identify to be the driving, unifying principle behind desktop Linux adoption by developers?
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Its easy to go from 1 to 2 users or 2 to 4 and claim a fantastic growth rate, but what constitutes that magic number of users before its truly a desktop operating system being used daily by enough of a mass to catch the attention of large software development firms that will create/port applications to linux?
Is growth rate in terms of number of desktops conquered (eg growth rate of 1.5 million desktops a year) a better measuring stick than doubled/tripled/whatever the number of users in X years. What, in your opinion, is a good measuring tool in determining the growth rate/acceptance of linux in the market?
At what level of penetration (% install base share) will Linux reach critical mass on the desktop? It's much less relevant from a server perspective since it appears that Linux already has reached critical mass on that front. Should we assume that when Linux supplants Apple as the number two platform (although this has already happened from what I have seen, nobody is stating it yet in the mass media), that we will see a proliferation of commercial Linux offerings and (more importantly) better OEM hardware support?
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People expect to get "Windows" when they purchase a new computer at "Walmart" or other major outlet. Most people want to "buy it, plug it in and use it", ie., pre-installed OS. Only a few people know the value of Linux vs Windows. Do any of the statistics show the effect of advertising and pre-installed Os on market share and usage trends?
We can't even get solid Internet traffic statistics. Look at the mess Worldcom's inflated traffic numbers caused.
There's lies, damned lies, and statistics.
How do you reconcile the "fact" that everyone has statistics to show what they want, with the fact that you think yours are better?
If you feel that linux on the desktop is going to double by 2004, how do you figure we are going to get there? Who is going to lead the way and what is going to become the turning point that linux becomes a usable desktop for the majority of users? I love linux, its configurability and the support that is available on the web, but I would never install linux on my grandmothers computer at home. Do you figure that linux should just pick a default window manager now and build upon that to allow a seamless interface from those coming from Windows XP to linux?
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It seems to me that for the past four or five years I've been seeing "statistics" and "studies" to the tune of "Linux is enterprise-ready" and "Linux will overtake the desktop" and "Linux rulez". What's different today?
What in your opinion is the biggest stumbling block for wide spread acceptance of Linux in desktop uses?
Lack of software, poor GUI design, lack of a single common GUI, hard to buy a computer with out Microsoft software preinstalled, "it is free so it can't be good" misconceptions, or something else?
Slashdot, home of supporters of free software, free music, and free speech.Except for Moderators that disagree with you.
http://www.google.com/press/zeitgeist.html
It is fairly neutral(in fact even Linux & advanced users biased). It shows Marketshare of Linux has failed to register even a blip, while XP grew from 0% to a whopping 26% in just a few months.
Before everyone spews some shit about how they access Google from office, I have got one word for you guys 'Corelation'. Most of the enterprise has not switched to XP, but yet XP shows up at 26%. Also I dont believe that after all those people switching to Linux, it hasn't grown past 1% (i.e 0% growth) for the past freaking 24 months. Pretty damning for the fastest growing OS in the planet.
Zeitgiest shows only one fastest growing OS, i.e Windows XP
As long as there are clueless idiots who would believe anything Linux zealots say, "Linux is growing marketshare in desktop"
As a follow-up question, does your reasarch support the CowboyNeal Theory that links "insensitive clods" with M$ desktops?
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I mean, really.
What are the primary means of assessing Linux on the Desktop usage statistics, and how reliable are these methods? Also, what types of methods are used to offset each method's failings?
There are websites that track such statistics. In your opinion, how reliable are these sites in general?
(Score: -1, Stupid)
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The man has a stat for everything, but there's never a source in site. He's really quite a good guy, very intelligent, and reasonably good technically... but his evangelist side sometimes gets the best of him. Read his stuff as you would an opinion piece, not truth.
Obviously games isn't factored into the usage equation, am I right?
Take the only known stats, and look them over. Compare them to Windows...
Rune: 0.37%, if that, were Linux sales.
UT2003: less than 1% of people to ever play online were in Linux
And so on...
Most people know that Linux is used extensively on the server side of things, but how is Linux doing on the desktop side? And more specifically, games?
I meant the whole comment as a half-jest. The joke lay partially in the fact that Slashdot polls are disclaimed as wildly inaccurate, and partly in the fact that you'd need a unique CowboyNeal option for each poll.
I should've posted anonymously...i don't like being accused of karma whoring or trolling. I expected to be modded "Funny"...I think there are some pretty shallow moderators out there for it to get modded "Interesting".
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