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The Dawn of the Post-PC era?
An anonymous reader writes "The "Post-PC" era may be near at hand, according to the findings of a recently completed market study conducted by eTForecasts. The study projects that Windows CE-based devices may outsell Windows-based PCs within 5 years. According to the report, Microsoft has made "tremendous progress" in positioning its Windows CE and derivative operating systems for use in a broad range of handheld and mobile devices such as PDAs and Smartphones, and only embedded Linux is poised to represent a major long-term across-the-board competitor to Microsoft." The Register has another story about the study.
5 years is optimistic, but I would love to see it happen, the biggest hurdle for PDAs and portable computers is the battery life, power to the machines!
Posting useless rant since 2003.
Not that such anecdotal evidence would count but I've personally bought more handhelds than desktops already in the last two years or so.
This technology is moving faster, so there's more incentive to upgrade. And quite many of my coworkers are showing off their new Pocket PCs as well.
When men used to be men
While I personally have had very few blue screens using w2k for a couple years, I know that some versions of windows are blue screen prone. I'm curious what the average blue screen rate is for a hand held device. Anyone have an idea on this?
I think it would annoy me more if my hand held crashed than if my desktop did.
"Not knowing when the dawn will come, I open every door." - Emily Dickinson
I was not touched there by an angel.
Will be around for a while longer... What I see in the future is the letting go of legacy and the refinement of the beige box into a hub of sorts. The embedded segment still has poor input devices and no matter how small and useful they could be until headway is made in the usability arena specifically regarding input then they are pretty tough and difficult to use for any long period of time.
The first manufacturer to start pumping out non-legacy machines that are smaller more aesthetic and can hold current media yet allow for new functionality that is found in stuff like MythTv, Freevo, Tivo, Windows Media OS etc etc etc with ease will be the next big computer manufacturer.. That is till the guys/gals over at the mit media lab find out a way to get better input devices for smaller devices. Whether it be voice operated or whatever etc etc etc.. you get the idea.
With your WinCEtoster, WinCEcoffie maker, WinCEpencil, WinCEpaper, WinCEtoilet Paper, WinCEWinCE, etc.
Yes I can see CE divices out selling pcs, but only because they putting it in to every divice they can get their hands on. It might also be very hard not buy something that is CE enabled in the future.
These devices aren't taking over an old PC market, they are novel devices filling new niches. PDA? Replaced the paper Franklins. Cell phone? Replaces hard-wired (or even supplements it.) MP3 player -- walkman etc.
Just because sales of embedded devices are increasing and potentially overtaking PC's, does not mean they're replacing them...
And taking a different tack...
What do you think all the people working on all of the embedded devices are going to be working on? Tablets? Handhelds? I don't think so.
They're going to be doing the same thing they are now, sitting in front of a PC (or unix box, or whatever) and banging out requirements, design, and code...
Most work will still be done in the same way, 'cause a lot of the time a PDA/handheld/tablet just won't cut it...
It's going to be great fun watching the marketing guys build their PowerPoint presentations on their cell phones.
A corporate saleswoman I know has done almost that.
Her team has given up toting laptops to do presentations. A desktop in the office to build them on, and a handheld out in the field, plugged directly into the projector, to do the presentations and manage client data.
Even minor updates done on the handheld. Need a different presentation? Log into central files back home and download/modify it.
I thought it was now the PocketPC? Or maybe even soon-to-be Windows XP Embedded if they decide to start using that for things like PDA's along with cell phones and other "devices."
Look into the company...it seems to be a one-man shop. If I remember the area its in correctly that's a residential address, I will drive by today to verify. This release is from a conshop.
Have you ever tried to effectively work off a WinCe device? They're great for processes where you do the same task over and over, but actually trying to do any real work (translation: work that actually requires thinking in addition to just typing or clicking) is almost painful. The WinCe 2.0 OS is still chock full of bugs. I regularly have to reset my iPAQ because the OS has a memory leak (at least as far as I can tell; no apps running and the memory used count just goes higher and higher...). Don't even get me started on missing functionality in applications. Maybe embedded devices work better, but if the consumer version of the OS is anything like the embedded version, no thanks! Give me a realllly old copy of the embedded version of OS/2 any day, or Linux, or anything else...
I still have a copy of that Corel Office for Java beta that they came out with. I remember how badly it ran back when it came out, but about a year ago I brought it up on modern equipment. It really wasn't that bad. It was clearly seven years too early to go anywhere.
From reading the computer press, one might assume that *all* computer users are gamers. I wonder what the percentage really is. Practically none of my close friends or colleagues have anything to do with games.
We don't need bloated hardware and software to design fast portable computers which run circles around Transmeta in speed and power consumption. We don't need commonly used bloated embedded operating systems either (yes this includes embedded forms of Unix, too). We just use a different approach. It has been demonstrated to work very well, and perhaps even offend a few people :).
For me, the "post PC era" is when people stop treating thier computers as computers, and start viewing them as appliances. SFF PCs are a gateway into it where the PC becomes a set top box much like a DVD player or VCR. The xBox has the potential to be a major gap bridger, as the people that have modded it have found out. A subset of this would be a decline in "PC" sales as people start using the various "appliances" for tasks that they would have otherwise used a PC for.
Another definition would be an end to the trend of continued growth in the PC market and a return to predominantly just using appliances.
If you think education is expensive, you should try ignorance -- Derek Bok, president of Harvard
Call me crazy (again), but I can't wait until a PDA can replace my desktop/notebook. It got pretty close with the Newton, and could've within a generation or two (at most) of Newton technology.
Current PDAs suck, though. Very much so a step backwards. Even so, there are some good things, like the HP Jornada 72x and the Sharp Zaurii. Give me a Sharp Zaurus with a touch-typable keyboard around the size of the Jornada 720's (not just a big thumboard like the C700), a ~600 MHz XScale, some means of using a larger monitor and a larger res, and I'd be happy with all other features being the same with something like the current Zaurus SL-C700- 640x480 screen, 64 MB RAM, 32 MB Flash ROM, SD + CF slots. I'd sell my iBook in a minute if I could get one of those.
I have actually been using a Jornada 720 with a 206 MHz StrongARM CPU largely as my main machine. Wireless and wired web browsing, writing up reports (with LaTeX), email, SSH, and programming all on the device, never neededing to do anything silly like sync with a desktop. Hell, I probably would have sold my iBook and just used the Jornada 720 as my only machine, but the screen isn't readable at all out of doors- it isn't reflective like the Zaurus or iPAQ screen. Nor is my iBook's, but if I'm going to consolodate all devices into one, I better be able to use it for everything I currently use my PDAs and iBook for.
And I'm definately a special case in the general computer using population, perhaps more or less so with the nerd/programming community. But I want a computer that I can power off of a relatively small solar panel, and I want it now!
Working toward a usable PDA environment in the spirit of Newton OS: Dynapad
Remember, Palm Inc. owns all of Be's IP, so they could have a *really* cool handheld in a couple of years. Handhelds are rapidly hitting the performance point PCs were at when Be was the 'Next Big Thing'.
Post-PC was a phrase coined up back in 1999 or so and bandied about a lot by the pundits. Infoworld was particularly guilty of overusing this word.
It's about as meaningful as predicting we are in the Post-Automobile era due to the invention of passenger airplanes and scooters. The airplane didn't replace, it complemented and allowed for new travel that had not occured as readily before. The same is true of PDAs in comparison to PCs.
BTW, in 1999 when the Post-PC phrase was coined, desktop sales increased by 40%.
The main problem is the proprietary CLOSED nature of console games. The BEST longest lasting most played games, read made the MOST $$$'s are PLAYER supported, designed for MODS and player maps. Until the consoles figure a way around that, and I am sure they will, PC gaming is and will continue to be superior. The grand expirement is EQ adventures, and I predict a slow painful death for that game. Without a keyboard and extensive macro ability it is going to be painful at best. Make a console controller that can compete with a mouse+keyboard in a FPS and you might have something also. :)
As to needing new games with more imagnitive gameplay HERE HERE
errr....umm...*whooosh* *whoosh* Is this thing on ?
This story conflicts with this story by the same research company:
http://www.etforecasts.com/pr/pr0402.htm
In 2001 the worldwide number of PCs-in-use topped 600M units. In the next six years this number will nearly double to over 1.15B PCs-in-use by year-end 2007-a compound annual growth of 11.4%.
Trouble with market research firms is that they usually tend to tell the client what they want to hear.
Enjoy,
It's just the normal noises in here.
Okay, look. You and many of the other posters are missing the point. This isn't about the personal computer at all; this is about the fact that your BMW 7 series, the rollercoasters at Disneyland, and your microwave will all be running an operating system. And, according to the figures calculated by this company, Microsoft's operating system will be the one of choice.
I don't agree with this company's assessment one bit. Microsoft is NOT skilled at embedded systems, and the problems with the new BMW 7 series are *proof* that Microsoft has a long way to go before they truly understand the severity of the problems which can result from crappy code. (This is why I will definitely stay away from the new 5 series.
Look for interesting things to come out of Motorola once they complete their cultural overhaul, and from the manufacturers themselves - self-organizing and creating generic platforms specific to their industry (Daimler+BMW+VW; Sony+Panasonic+JVC; etc). I'm no open source zealot here, but the real winner here appears to be Linux.
In the PC world, Linux is the fringe option for the crazy people. In the post-PC world, Windows is the fringe option for the crazy people. Ahh -- sweet, sweet redemption, eh?
You have to hand it to MS - they have been *very* good at applying pressure to hardware vendors to get them to support CE, in most cases to the exclusion of anythign else. (Take a look at tiqit.com, the people who used to have the tiny little x86 borads for an example where they're about 75% don with the conversion - CE is clearly the emphasis, although they're not yet getting all the MS marketing dollars they can by removing any reference to competing OSes as some others have. Intrynsic is another example of a vendor in the process of switching to CE.)
Seriously, this is a *real* problem - right now, I'm looking for a very tiny, low-power embedded board that can support either wired Ethernet or 802.11. (Any pointers greatly appreciated!) First, there are far fewer choices than there were a year ago - it's amazing how many hardware platforms have died in this space, many of them casualties of the embedded Linux movement (for instance, Lineo and Metroworks are no longer interested in selling hardware, and their products just died off, leaving a real void.)
I don't want to use CE for this device, but I may, if only because it's *far* easier to get CE support on the new highly capable hardware. No one wants to own Linux or NetBSD drivers and the like, so it's a quagmire - MS, on the other hand is throwing beaucoup dollars at making sure CE runs (and is supported) on everything that matters. As a result, it's getting hard to avoid making the decision to design CE into new embedded products. Yess, it's a stupidly designed environment, but there's no question it's already far better supported than Linux and BSD for quick time-to-market embedded systems development.
I don't like that, but it's reality. And I don't think I see any way for it to change real soon, either. They are quite simply, being very successful at buying this market. This is a real shame, as the ELCPS (Embedded Linux Consortium PLatform Specification) should breathe some life into things, but instead, it appears that the hardware vendors are leaving Linux behind so long as Microsoft is waving dollars at them.
"The future's good and the present is nothing to sneeze at." - Roblimo's last
why, oh why, would they suddenly decide to give up this machine
Fair question. For the functions you describe it's perfectly adequate. And if people don't have much discretionary income they'll probably stick with it. But there are still reasons to give it up for something better.
It's big, noisy and has a medusa of dusty cables festering in the backside of it.
I can see where new desktops that incorporate all the guts into a fan-less box hidden on the back side of an LCD panel would be appealing.
Basically, a laptop with a reasonable keyboard and mouse and bigger monitor would be a nice upgrade for many PC users.
That, and secure high BW wireless connectivity to CE devices in the stereo cabinet would be something nice, a reason to give up the old.
[Something in the same direction that current Macs are going correctly gauges where there are reasons for switching.]
"Provided by the management for your protection."
I never understood the scene in Brazil where the guy is staring at his tiny monitor through a magnifying glass until now. People are obsessed with these things to the extent that they use them in permanently tethered mode even though they have a full sized monitor and keyboard sitting right next to the thing.
That part of the fad will fade I think, along with the eyesight of users. The main thing that will drive computing for the next few years will be PRICE. It's a dismal prospect for Microsoft and I'm sure these studies are designed to give them hope that people will switch from paying $2000 for a full sized PC whose cost of manufacture is $100 to paying $500 for a palmtop which contains $10 worth of parts. They are addicted to these outrageous profit margins and they have absolutely no plan for how to replace the cashflow that they generate.
They better get such a plan and soon however. These PDA/Notepad dreams will never come true in the way MS needs them to. A decent PDA in the near future will cost $50 or less, subsidized by cell phone service agreements if they have that function, and a notpad style PC will go for $300 and both devices will be considered "disposable" since in either case you drop them on concrete and they become useless and unfixable.
High (relative) profit margin items for the next few years will be ordinary notebooks, but people and companies on a budget will keep using what they have for as long as possible. Notebooks are the best compromise... readable displays and normal keyboards... single device for each user with no need to constantly "synch". I think even good notebooks will be available from every brand for under $1000 and the competitive price for these devices will flirt with $500. Read it and weep Microsoft.