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Is The Software Industry Dead?
A reader writes:" Ok. So I'm about to graduate and then I come across this story:
Do Software Firms Have Bright Future?
None other than Larry Ellison of Oracle thinks that the best is behind us and that software is a dead industry. What does the rest of slashdot think? Will that shiney new degree be worthless? " I think it's safe to say that it's not dead - but that the times it once had aren't going to return; e.g. tulip blubs sell well, but not like they used to.
your degree would have been worthless anyway if you weren't flexible enough to use your technical knowledge to apply it to business. Even if the IT field it going downhill, capitalism isn't...not yet at least
Dont worry about what he says. This is the guy that has been trying to replace PC's with Dummy terminals (well maybe smart terminals). The software industry may get worse because of outsourcing to 3rd world countries where the labor costs are lower but it will not just die.
"If ignorance is bliss, why aren't there more happy people in the world?"
not the software industry. If you look at open source/power personal PC trends it is the high dollar software and hardware vendors that are in real trouble. It is interesting to note that most people here view MSFT = bad and Linux = good, but really both provided computing power to everybody at a much lower cost than some (Orcale, Sun, etc.) would like...
Onward to the Aether Sphere!
Just like any recession, some industries tend to be insulated from the economic woes that surround them. Anything that will allow people to escape reality feels less impact, and in some cases, has positive growth. Alcohol is a prime example of an industry which operates in direct contradiction to recessions, and if you're too young to drink, games can be a replacement.
You think that I'm crazy, you should see this guy!
I am also going to be graduating with a computer science degree. When I started four years ago this was the degree to have if you wanted to be guaranteed a job. Now it seems run-of-the-mill and it does not set you apart from the masses whatsoever. In job hunting, I have found that if you only have a computer science degree you are not going to easily find a job. Everyone wants experience or special abilities. For this sole reason I am staying on in college another semester to get my philosophy degree to set myself apart from all the other generic computer science grads. No longer will a cpu sci degree be enough. It's sad how things have changed so badly in the last four years......
Give it a look
I will agree with you once the free software subculture actually comes out with something that is NOT A CLONE of a commercial product.
...
I graduated this time last year.. and it seams that the graduate state of mind is very similar to what it was last year. No, your not going to have recruiters tracking you down like telemarketers. But, the industry is not dead either.
If you were in it to come out making 80K+ while working a 40 hour week... then you'll probably end up dissapointed. Otherwise, if your a code junkie, you probably won't have much trouble finding a job that you enjoy.
Is your degree worthless?... well thats really up to you.
Look at it this way. The fundamentals of a car haven't changed since the model T. It still has wheels, an engine, and a transmission to link them. But I would hardly say the best of cars is behind us. Nowdays, we have 200k miles reliability, 30mpg fuel consumption, from cars that can run 11's on the strip with a little work. Computers/Software industry is much the same way. The easy bang for the buck software is written(word processing, etc). These won't change. But there is automation programming, simulations, AI, and many other aspects which we still on the cusp of breaking through. No, the software industry isn't dead. We're just gonna have to work harder to make quality products. I predict the 1-3 year devolpment cycle(okay, I know that's a general statement) as being replaced by a 5-6 year cycle. It takes time, and money to write good software. But the market is still there. They're just much more cautious now.
...is not the industry that most programmers work in.
If you're getting a degree in software development, there's about a 98% chance that if you write code, it will be for a custom business system that will never be used outside of the company you work for.
Programmers rarely work in software product companies, and in those companies the programmers find themselves to be the minority (both in number and in pay) -- overshadowed by marketers, admins, and lawyers. Their jobs are to produce the product, worked 18 hours a day, paid what amounts to minimum wage, and maybe one day it might result in a royalty check.
See, the software product industry doesn't really exist. The billions of dollars made by Microsoft are in truth a bizarre anomoly that most companies have not been able to recreate. That is not to say that other companies don't sell software profitably too, but in those cases the software is sold as simply a service offering vessel. Microsoft is one of the few that can sell a shrinkwrap product to millions of people and walk away from them until it's time to sell them the next release.
Other cases where software is sold as a product usually has nothing to do with the rest of the software industry. The box is an end user consumable like entertainment content or some kind of shovelware gimmick.
It is the software product industries Ellison is talking about when he says the software industry is on the decline. He probably even sees it in his own company. No one buys Oracle for the sake of having Oracle software, they buy Oracle so they have Oracle's support infrastructure behind it.
So while the software product industry may be on its way out, it doesn't mean you should switch majors just yet.
The software systems and services industries are poised for a boom. Businesses are starting to collect more information, expanding into more markets, becoming (finally) a little more computer literate. It is in these fields we can seek to sell ourselves, and it is also in these fields we can best sell Linux and open source.
I will agree with you once the free software subculture actually comes out with something that is NOT A CLONE of a commercial product.
:-).
It indeed happens seldom to find a really original idea implemented as a software product. But that's happening both in the commercial and the free software world. Hey, what was the last M$ or IBM software product, not being a clone
But for the free software world, I do think that the first NCSA web server and the first web browser (running on good old NeXT) can be considered "not a clone" and were also free downloadable. So, there is your example....
Browsers shouldn't have a back button!! It's all about going forward...
You do realise that the Software Industry is about a LOT more than Windows programming and games
Welcome to the embedded/telecom-industry - please bring your Open Source GPRS-signalling stack
it's in my head
...not software.
The fact is, The Ellisons, Gates, even Jobs's of the world are a dying breed if the Stallmans, Torvalds and other Open Source guys have their way. open Source has provided much of the real innovations in software over the last decade (how's that BSD TCP stack running these days, Bill?) and has now moved into the arena of whole systems. Why pay $300/annually for a piece of software when a free equivilant that runs better is readliy downloadable?
That said, you can see why Larry is worried. He hears the pounding of the hooves of the horsemen of his economic apocylypse. I, as a ride on one of the thundering heard am enjoying every inch of the ride.
Right. That's the answer, Mensa. Nevermind that I can't magically lower my cost of living to be in line with the cost of living in India. My student loans don't magically become worth less, just because I get paid less. Nor does my mortgage cost shrink, because my pay shrinks.
Anyway, you apparantly didn't read what I wrote. I said I have a job NOW. I've been fully employed at a healthy salary since 1993 (when I graduated). However, given current trends in the industry I fully expect to NOT be employed in software development in the future unless either (A) I'm lucky or (B) the cost of living gets really really low here in the US. We're talking 3rd-world nation low. Then again, that's where the suits are pushing us, so maybe we'll be a third world nation soon. Then perhaps we could compete.
Part of the problem with the industry is some of the current salaries represent a skill that at one time was harder to come by. As programming languages become simpler to code with and more people get into the market, the more salaries will need to come down.
On the plus side, with a good number of years experience you can always try and develop a specific skill across a wide number of platforms/languages and keep yourself gainfully employed.
Or do what the Auto companies did and form a union!
It take more faith to believe in evolution than it takes to believe in God
SO... I think there is a *massive* misunderstanding of what Ellison is trying to say.
...which is now an internet bust.
> If so, then can you imagine everyone not needing software?
OK. Can you imagine everyone not needing salt and spices in their food? No? Now, make the leap - can you imagine the spice trade as a booming business minting new millionaries seemingly without end? Is that last statement too much?
I hope so -- the spice trade is relatively unimportant in grand economic terms, but it was not this way in the 15th-17th centuries.
Similarily, there will always be a software industry. But will it command the imagination of a nation? Or will people look to, say, nanotechnology or biotechnology for the next big boom?
Also, I think Ellison stressed Silicon Valley as well.
In the 1960's and 70's, led by Shockley, then Fairchild and then finally Intel, Silicon Valley was a thriving centre for chip making. Then chip making became commoditized and by the late 70's - early 80's, Silicon Valley was in a bust due to Japanese competition.
But it bounced back.
Then, in the 80's, defence R+D and PC software rose to promenance.
Only to bust in the 90's.
Finally, in the late 90's, there was the great internet boom...
So the real question isn't, "software, wherefore art thou?", but really, will the next economic revolution (and yes, the Internet revolution will go down in the history books as matching the industrial revolutions) again be due soley to software? Or will it be something else? And, will the next revolution be centered in Silicon Valley? Or will it be somewhere else?
Don't think it must be in Silicon Valley - after all, the Internet revolution didn't happen in Manchester and Glasgow - don't expect the center of yesterday's revolution to be the center of tomorrow's.
Besides, there are people who specialize in business. Except that if they're not flexible, their shiny degree aint worth much either. (Heard an interview with an unemployed "Vice President of Brand Awareness." Can't understand why he's a year plus on the breadlines.) Which brings me to my main point: everybody needs to be flexible.
Too many techies are overspecialized. Their only educational priority is to prepare for some job that happens to be Very Hot when they start school. Even if the dot.com boom had lasted for 100 years, people like that would be in big trouble eventually. Technology changes, and you need the mental flexibility to keep up with those changes. You won't get that with a narrow education.
And you can expect companies to screw their employees by going to cheaper and cheaper labour. After all, the effect in the short term is hardly noticeable even though over time it will completely shift the ecconomic base from the richest countries to the poorer countries.
It take more faith to believe in evolution than it takes to believe in God
As a veteran of IT I was there when you had to have real skill to get involved. Also, being around during the boom I saw that attitude change and companies take on inexperienced employees because it was sooo hard to find employees in general. I worked on Bank of America's network security team and it was pretty much a training camp for unqualified employees. By the time they had some skills they realized that they could make more $ elsewhere so it was a never ending cycle. If your parents and their friend thought you were a computer guru and you went to a MCSE boot camp you could get a senior level IT job. Now all the while there was REAL growth in IT but we all know that there was a TON of FALSE growth due to the IPO scam that America fell into. Now I am having a hard time finding a job even though I DO have senior level skills because the market is flooded with all these Wannabes that had their ego built up by the over demand. These people need to go take their real jobs at Burger King and Home Depot so that the REAL IT people can get an interview.
It seems only fair that the most experienced / qualified people stay in the industry that they have those skills in and the least qualified get out of the industry. Anyone still in school taking Computer Science with lofty dreams of making it to the top is fooling themselves and they will find themselves working in a low paying / thankless job. Sorry guys you missed the boom and it is now a buyer's (employer's) market so chances with no experience you are out of luck.
My advice for would be Computer Science majors would be to switch majors to one that compliments a market where there is a demand for workers. I have investigated what that is, but may be forced to very soon. With that said there are a bunch of people that are going into Computer Science because it is their passion and not as a career path. For those I say fine just don't take enthusiasm for a false sense of job security because it does not exist.
There ya go...
lol
Nick Powers
My Resume
Encryption: I may not agree with what you say, but I will defend your right to encrypt it...
So you went to college and majored in a computer related field thinking you were going to be the next Bill Gates? Or maybe you thought you'd work for Bill Gates and get a tiny slice of the pie?
You're not alone but you are probably in for a big surprise if you haven't already figured this out...
Think about musicians. There are a whole lot of them out there and almost all of them dream of making it big. Most of those that make money as a musician are doing so in obscurity and without the *BIG* money. Most musicians know this.
Think about how many companies sell software. Think about how many employees they have.
Think about how many people are out there that can work in the software industry.
The fact is that most people making money in the computer industry are not doing it by working for a company that sells software.
So, is the software industry dead? Not really but it was never "alive" the way you thought it was. It's smaller than it has been in the past but your chances weren't that great to being with--greater than being the next top 20 artist but not as great as you probably thought.
What should you do? Do what we all do...go get a job writing software for company that has every intent of using it rather than selling it.
I think the main reason there's this feeling of, well, stagnation in the industry, is because of the inability of people to see the "Next Big Thing" that will drive development.
Spreadsheets, GUIs, relational DBMS's (Oracle), and the internet were all new technologies that added impulses (in the engineering sense) to the computer industry pendulum, keeping it swinging higher. People right now are unsure where that next kick is coming from.
What is coming down the pike that people absolutely must have? Bioinformatics? Small wireless devices? If you knew what's coming next, you could be the next Larry Ellison. Unfortunately, Larry wants to be the next Larry Ellison, too, and he's got more money to spend on research.
In the end, you should find something that is well defined (fuzzy plans make flops), that interests you, that doesn't put you in direct competition with a multi-billion dollar firm, and that there's at least some market for. If you're good at it, you'll do fine.
Or join the multi-billion dollar firm, and save your weekends for fun.
You left out another alternative: what if (C) the cost of living increases elsewhere ? What if the third world countries outgrow being third world countries ? The reason the cost of living is higher in the US is largely due to a currency differential. Basically, you can buy a lot of third world labor with your spare change. If the "third world" countries develop competitive economies, this differential will not be sustained -- either America's currency will drop, or the other currencies will grow, or both.
Two things I see coming out of this -- one is that a lot of people are going to get burned by transitions in major economies. Another is that being American does not in itself entitle you to buy hours and hours of someone else's time, if that someone else has comparable skills. In other words, the worst thing that's going to happen to your living standards is not that your labor is going to become cheap, it's that foreign labor is going to become more expensive.
Before I say anything about the industry, let me start out by saying that you never, ever waste your time when you study computer science. Even if you never use it professionally (increasingly likely these days) you'll still find the ability to completely control a computer (as opposed to "using" a computer like most people) very valuable. Just think; by the time you're done with your degree program, you'll be able to understand and work with any computer you're plunked down next to. Not only that; you'll be able to make the thing do your bidding. That's a pearl of great price, don't think of it in career terms.
Having said that, yes, unfortunately the software industry is dead, at least from the perspective of the individual programmer. There are a lot of reasons for this, including:
1. Most corporations and private companies are outsourcing almost *everything*, usually either overseas (India, mostly) or to local companies that use overseas talent. You can't beat them on price, ok? Their cost of living is a fraction of yours, and they'll undercut you until you starve. It doesn't matter that your skills are superior, or that you're a great programmer; some guy in Bangalore can work for 1/5 what you cost, and to a pointy-haired boss, that's all that matters. This is a terrible, terrible thing, and corporations deserve no loyalty or mercy from us -- when their customer base can no longer afford their products thanks to rampant layoffs, they'll die off like the vermin they are. But there's nothing we (or anyone) can do about it, so we might as well accept it.
2. Even if a private company isn't going to go into full-blown outsourcing, they ARE going to rely mostly on contractors. What THIS means is, most of the work will go to inexpensive foreign talent ANYWAY (because now, the contracting companies will do the outsourcing) and those Americans who DO get contracting gigs will have to settle for chump change or lose the bid. IF, that is, you can get them to pay you at all -- there are lots, and I mean lots, of stories about people getting stiffed by companies. Corporate IT is a really dicey business for a programmer or admin these days.
3. Software companies aren't going to provide many jobs. Applications software is deader than hell. It's been slaughtered by the Open Source community, who can produce solid software that not only costs nothing, but which can be copied infinitely, and has no hidden gotchas like the equivalent proprietary software. You simply cannot compete with that; you can't beat them on quality, or on price, or even on style (most open source software these days even LOOKS good). It's a dead industry, ok? Not that this is a bad thing, necessarily, but it does mean you won't be able to count on a salary from this sector.
But it's not all doom and gloom. There are still a couple of places where you can make some money.
First of all, public sector jobs may not pay as much as the private sector USED to, but they sure pay a hell of a lot more NOW. Federal, State, and Local jobs are all unionized, so you're protected, and you get great benefits. So this is a great place to hunker down during the recession. One warning: they can be annoying places to work. But it's worth a little aggravation to have a steady job.
Second of all, if you're good at graphics, game companies are going to keep growing. They're making money hand over fist. But concentrate on console games. People are sick of having to upgrade their PCs every couple of years, and they're switching over to consoles at a breakneck pace.
Third, and this is pretty dicey, you might be able to make some bread writing Java and J2EE libraries and tools that corporations might want to buy. Get the money up front, though. Don't get stiffed. And, buy some kind of dongle or other copy-protection scheme, or corporations WILL pirate your code like mad. Think I'm kidding? Companies like to ask you for a "demo" and then, use that to do whatever project they had in mind. Then you don't get paid. Get the don
Farewell! It's been a fine buncha years!
The effect will not be to shift the money accross geographic boundaries, but rather, class boundaries. The money will continue to shift upward. The jobs will shift overseas, only because they can be paid less there. That will drive down wages here, and then when the wages in that country start to rise, production will be moved yet again to an even cheaper market.
Ultimately though the people who will benefit the most from this are those who control capital and the means of production. They will be able to drive down costs, and thus drive up profits. More money will flow up to the top because of this. This will be a global phenomenon.
This sig has been temporarily disconnected or is no longer in service
Where was the outcry when manufacturing and textiles took a flying leap into ASIA?
Whenever I hear about outsourcing to other countries, I have to retrospect that this has been happening for at least 20 years in one industry or another.
Whenever there is a labour force to do simple training to do the same job you do at half the price, I would be stupid not to say yes. STUPID.
Of course that is where the laws of tarrifs, etc try to balance the deficits of greedy companies.
In My Biased Opinion, I believe that many social woes from America come from a society of consumers constantly wanting more. This makes them greedy, greedier than other countries anyways.
Bye!