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Shuttle Set for Launch on Dec 18th, Says NASA

Tony J Case writes "Just a quick note for you guys - According to space.com, NASA's target date for the next shuttle launch is Dec. 18th, with a whole bunch of new guidelines."

36 of 335 comments (clear)

  1. New Guidelines by frieked · · Score: 4, Informative

    The new guidelines:
    No night launches for the foreseeable future.
    So they can see any stuff that falls off better.
    A revamping of mission management from the ground after a shuttle crew takes off.
    So when bad stuff happens, someone actually does something about it.
    Jettisoning the external tank during orbital daylight.
    So they can see any stuff that falls off better.
    And under consideration:
    Limiting shuttles to flights to the International Space Station or the Hubble Space Telescope.
    So they can see any stuff that has fallen off better and so they have a place to stay when bad stuff happens.
    Keeping a second shuttle on standby when a sister ship launches.
    So when bad stuff happens and someone actually does something about it there's a way home.

    To me it seems like most of these new guidelines are things that should have been taken care of before any accidents happened. Did you know that foam has fallen off the "bipod" of the shuttle's tank "on at least six other shuttle missions." Why was nothing done about this previosly?
    Hopefully now they'll be willing to put the extra effort (read money) in that it will take to make space flights safe(r)

    --

    I have often regretted my speech, never my silence.
    -Xenocrates
    1. Re:New Guidelines by 0123456 · · Score: 5, Informative

      "So when bad stuff happens, someone actually does something about it."

      They did do something about it. They asked the engineers if it was a safety problem, and the engineers said "No".

      "So when bad stuff happens and someone actually does something about it there's a way home."

      Yeah, provided you're willing to risk another orbiter and its crew to fly up there, crossing your fingers that whatever bad stuff happened to the first shuttle won't also happen to the other one. Though if you're going to lose the first shuttle anyway it doesn't really matter what happens to the second once since the shuttle program will be dead, dead, dead whether it's left with one or two orbiters.

      "Why was nothing done about this previosly?"

      NASA were developing a fix for the problem, which would likely have gone into place sometime next year. No-one was ignoring the problem, it just wasn't considered to be as high a priority as fixing the numerous other problems which haven't destroyed a shuttle yet.

      Incidentally, I was under the impression that the only launch possibility at or around Dec 18th was a night launch, so if they have to launch in the day, they can't launch then.

    2. Re:New Guidelines by pe1rxq · · Score: 3, Funny

      You forgot the most important guideline:

      No blowing up before, during or after flight

      Jeroen

      --
      Secure messaging: http://quickmsg.vreeken.net/
    3. Re:New Guidelines by EvilTwinSkippy · · Score: 4, Interesting
      Note: they aren't fixing any of the actual problems. They are going through painful steps to make it look like progress. Some of these steps sound like the "Hightened Security" measure at the airport.

      While I am all for a manned space program, it's time to stop flying the shuttle. It's a white elephant, and the costs of keeping it up in the air are siphoning money out of developing its replacement.

      And note that they aren't even discussing the 40 pound bolt fragment that periodically comes off the SRB's.

      --
      "Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival."
      --Dr.W.Edwards Deming
    4. Re:New Guidelines by Lev13than · · Score: 4, Funny

      Limiting shuttles to flights to the International Space Station or the Hubble Space Telescope.
      So they can see any stuff that has fallen off better and so they have a place to stay when bad stuff happens.


      Dunno about this one. IANARS (I am not a rocket scientist), but I suspect that even a damaged shuttle would be safer for re-entry than riding back in the Hubble.

      --
      When you have nothing left to burn you must set yourself on fire
    5. Re:New Guidelines by 0123456 · · Score: 5, Informative

      "Didn't NASA used to keep an extra shuttle on standby?"

      No. There have been occasions when there were two shuttles on the pads simultaneously, but there's never been an active requirement to have a second ready to launch... more normally, there's one on the pad and one a month or two away from being ready to go.

    6. Re:New Guidelines by pixelpusher220 · · Score: 3, Informative

      They did do something about it. They asked the engineers if it was a safety problem, and the engineers said "No"

      The engineers said there 'might' be a problem and it needed investigation. The beauracracy said 'No Problem' to the point of cancelling the engineer requested satellite image gathering.

      --
      People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people :-D
    7. Re:New Guidelines by dpilot · · Score: 4, Informative

      It isn't that simple. Stop flying the shuttle so we can fund a replacement, and I'll wager that the saved money finds its way out of the NASA budget, and the replacement is never developed. ie- the US manned space program would stop until political pressures push us back into it, and then it would most likely be another limited single-goal effort like Apollo.

      Of course if the single-goal was to match a sustainable moon base, I just with "they" would start applying the political pressure.

      --
      The living have better things to do than to continue hating the dead.
    8. Re:New Guidelines by FatAlb3rt · · Score: 4, Informative

      they aren't fixing any of the actual problems

      Thank you Dr. Nasa. At least you made your ignorance known first thing. The CAIB report should be out next month - that's what will address the constraints to flight.

      Steps are currently being taken to correct the ET foam issue, the weld on the SRB bolts have too low of a factor of safety so a fix will be incorporated there, and procedures are being generated and analyzed for on-orbit TPS inspections. I'm sure there will be other recommendations - more technical stuff and maybe Nasa cultural type stuff (civil servants vs. contractors w/r/t program duties).

      Please, don't pass off your ASSumptions as fact. Sorry for the rant, but it rubbed me the wrong way.

    9. Re:New Guidelines by stevey · · Score: 4, Funny
      No blowing up before, during or after flight

      On pain of death?

    10. Re:New Guidelines by el_gregorio · · Score: 5, Funny
      ...and procedures are being generated and analyzed for on-orbit TPS inspections.

      Yeah... don't forget to include the new cover sheet on those TPS reports. Did you get that memo?

      --
      "You want a toe? I can get you a toe by three o'clock... with nail polish."
  2. Good. by Schezar · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I really can't believe they're actually resuming Shuttle flights. I was worried that we would bury our heads in the sand for a few years like we have after similar accidents in the past.

    I'd still like to see an actual, cheap, reusable space vehicle though.. The shuttle isn't so hot on that front (no pun intended).

    --
    GeekNights!
    Late Night Radio for Geeks!
  3. Excellent by stanmann · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Last time we lost a shuttle, it took almost 10 years to recover, this time we are pressing on. Smarter harder and quicker.

    Lesson Learned moving on now.

    --
    Food not Bombs is a nice platitude but it breaks down when you notice that the Bombees are usually well fed
  4. The best memorial by Cat9117600 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Continuing to fly the shuttle,l and explore space is definitely the best memorial they could ever give to the people on Columbia.

    1. Re:The best memorial by The+Grey+Mouser · · Score: 4, Insightful


      Continuing to fly the shuttle,l and explore space is definitely the best memorial they could ever give to the people on Columbia.


      Not to sound unsympathetic, but we've explored low-earth orbit pretty well by now. Truth be told, the shuttle program has been a solution in search of a problem for many years now. Little to no publishable research has come out of the scientific experiments undertaken on the shuttle flights. The scientific experiments on the last Columbia flight were essentially meaningless. This is common knowledge to most folks in the industry, and is approaching the level of an inside joke.

      I'm beginning to think that NASA is stuck in a rut regarding the space shuttle. Shuttle launches are still extremely expensive (which was the whole reason that they were developed in the first place), and have a miserable rate of return, irrespective of whether your metric is scientific of economic. The best reason for keeping the shuttle around now is to support the ISS. Given the anemic state of the ISS (to put it kindly), this raison d'etre is starting to evaporate.

      I'm a huge supporter of NASA, and the concept of manned space exploration, but I'm starting to see the shuttle program as an enormous leech, diverting resources that could be used to further the R&D and space exploration at the heart of NASA's mandate. They keep launching shuttles though, accomplishing precisely bugger all, and no one in this organisation seems to be thinking about where to go from here (this is not true, of course, but one could be forgiven for thinking so). I wish it were otherwise, and I wish that NASA could reclaim the vision that gave us the Apollo program, and the Viking, Voyager, Mariner
      and Pioneer-series probes. Galileo and Cassini are steps in the right direction, but ultimately I think NASA must either terminate the shuttle program, or apply it towards a real program of research and exploration. Zero-g nematode growth just isn't worth the lives of seven humans.

      Cheers,

      Mouser

  5. Just a thought... by Jedi+Holocron · · Score: 3, Funny

    Strap on a couple of extra SRB's and get rid of the damn external tank and it's foam. It's a bloated piece of equipment anyhow. And the SST main engines don't really do much for getting the SST into orbit anyhow.

    Yes, this is a gross oversimplification, but I think it's a valid topic point without getting into the gross technical details of how to implement it.

    Okay, so now you have to deal with the newly reported explosive bolt problem....but still...it seems like a better idea to me than riding atop a giant tank of liquid hydrogen and oxygen.

    1. Re:Just a thought... by andreMA · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Without getting overly technical, that's not feasible because it's necessary to have a significant percentage of the thrust be variable and steerable. While the SRB nozzles can gimbal a bit, the thrust is totally predetermined. Also, I don't see sitting next to huge steel cylinders of ammonium perchlorate/aluminum powder as being safer than the cryogenic gasses used by the SSMEs. There was much resistance at the outset of the shuttle program to using solid fueled boosters on a manned vehicle, and those concerns are still valid. No, I'm not a rocket scientist.

    2. Re:Just a thought... by rand.srand() · · Score: 3, Informative

      The purpose of the SRB's is to get the shuttle above the atmosphere and escape drag. After they fall away the shuttle is still something like 5000 m/s away from orbital velocity (which itself is 7000ish m/s), but the relatively "weak" main engines don't have to fight the atmosphere.

      Even more, the last 20% of the fuel is really what kicks the shuttle along. They have the full power of the engines, but nearly all of the boost weight is gone. The thing boogies whereas on the ground they couldn't get the shuttle off the pad.

      The external tank, main engine set up is one of the more amazing accomplishments of the shuttle design, without it the "land like a plane" would never have happened.

    3. Re:Just a thought... by superdan2k · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Oh yeah, that's about the brightest idea I've ever heard. SRBs should have NEVER been rated for manned spaceflight...once they're running, they're running, and that's it. No throttling. No kill-switch. You wait until the propellant is gone.

      As for the SSMEs not having much to do with getting the orbiter into space I say this: uhhhhh, what?

      Here's a great site that explains the physics of the SRBs. Before this page gets Slashdotted to hell and back, I'll recap what it says: each SRB produces 3.3 million pounds of thrust, and each one weighs 1.3 million pounds (191,000 pounds dry-weight, plus 1.1 million pounds of propellant). That means the combined pair can lift about 4 million pounds. The shuttle itself weighs 171,000 pounds (empty, with engines), and the external tank weighs 66,000 pounds. So with a little rounding off, you can add 3.75 million pounds to the stack before you have an equal balance between thrust and weight (which will get you nowhere near orbit). The aforementioned external tank carries 1.3 million pounds of liquid oxygen and 227,000 pounds of liquid hydrogen. More neat rounding brings us to 1.6 million pounds of fuel, 2.15 million pounds remaining. Let's assume the shuttle is carrying its max payload -- 63,500 pounds. Leaves us with 2.08 million pounds.

      So:
      Booster Stack Weight + Fuel: 4.52 million pounds.
      Thrust of SRBs (combined): 6.6 million pounds.
      Resulting Thrust-to-Weight Ratio: 1.4.

      By comparison, a F-15 has a thrust-to-weight ratio of 1.19, giving the shuttle a 15% advantage, when using SRBs alone.

      That's right. I haven't forgotten about the SSMEs. When run at 104%, they provide an extra 488,000 pounds of thrust each. That's an extra 1.46 million pounds of thrust. Thus, our 4.52 million pound stack now has a 8.06 million pounds of thrust, resulting in a thrust-to-weight ratio of 1.78, or a 66% advantage over the F-15. Note that these figures are assuming that the SSMEs are run at 104% from ignition (which they're not), but also bear in mind that as the shuttle burns fuel, which it does as a prodigious rate, the overall weight of the stack is reduced while the thrust remains constant, so as the vehicle climbs, it's thrust-to-weight ratio improves, and continues to do so after the SRBs are cut loose.

      Now, IANARS (RS = Rocket Scientist), but it seems to me that if we want to scale up the SRBs so that they alone can carry the shuttle into orbit, the weight of the propellant is going to exceed the maximum thrust of the SRBs before you can get enough propellant for the entire burn into orbit.

      What I'm trying to say is this: leave the rocket science to the rocket scientists.

      --
      blog |
  6. New guidelines? by NetNinja · · Score: 3, Insightful

    When so many people are at fault, nobody is at fault.

  7. Better uses by flez · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Maybe they should think of some better uses for the shuttle than literally shuttling stuff back and forth from the ISS.

    It's time for something new and exciting.

  8. yay by Lxy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Disagree all you want to, I'm just happy that the space program was not ended.

    Fly on, NASA.

    --

    There is no reasonable defense against an idiot with an agenda
    :wq
  9. exploding bolts by Potor · · Score: 4, Interesting

    discovery.com is just now reporting a new problem with the shuttles; the force of the exploding bolts that detach the boosters has been found to be too close to the strength of the dome that catches them. they predict that this will ground them further.

  10. Needs Another Seven Astronauts by arth1 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Perhaps it's time for NASA to take a look at how the Russians handle things -- their track record for the last 25 years is much better. At least no fatalities, and guess who had to step in when the US didn't dare send up another shuttle to rescue the stranded ISS 'nauts.

    Regards,
    --
    *Art

    1. Re:Needs Another Seven Astronauts by lostchicken · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well, had a Soyuz TM broke up on reentry, we would have rescued the ISS guys. The Soviet/Russian manned space program is much more simple than ours, and a Soyuz cannot even touch the payload capacity of the Shuttle.

      We can have debates all day about if a manned spacecraft should be nothing more than a way to get up and back, but that's for another day. Both failures of the shuttle have been directly related to their re-usability, and that's something the Russians don't have to worry about.

      --
      -twb
    2. Re:Needs Another Seven Astronauts by DivideByZero · · Score: 4, Informative

      Maybe you need to do a little more research.

      Also, I think you need to also take into account that during a fair chunk of the time you're mentioning, the Russian space program was kind of out-of-order - If you cut the regeme change period out, it could take you back to the good old days...

      March 18, 1980 - a Vostok rocket exploded on its launch pad while being refueled, killing 50 at the Plesetsk Space Center.

    3. Re:Needs Another Seven Astronauts by arivanov · · Score: 3, Interesting

      If we count the entire soviet + russian space programs we are talking at least 10 times more manned flights, at least 100 times more time in space. Losses AFAIK were all in all 3+2 in two accidents. There were rumours of several more but these have never been confirmed so we can so far assume that it is what says on the label. And that stacks up.

      If we are talking about people on board - shuttle crews are too bloody big. Period. A decent spacecraft should be able to take of and land automated (as the Buran did). And require two people at most to run.

      Also, the shuttle leaks like there is no tomorrow and its life support system sucks rotten eggs through a thin straw. IMO this, along with the absurdly big crew is actually the primary reason for the disaster. It could not stay in orbit a reasonable amount of time even if a check showed a problem. So nobody even considered a check to be a reasonable option.

      Also, Russia (in those days SU) handled Buran launches on a platform that did not require ugly hacks like strapping foam coated fuel tanks and uncontrollable solid fuel boosters. Also AFAIK the original design for the first stage of Energia assumed a controlled descent and reuse. And until there is a reasonable platform for a horisontal take off launching on the back of a real launcher is the only right way to launch a reusable vehicle.

      So all in all: US needs to buy (or redesign its own for carrying large off-balance loads which is not easy) some launchers useable for strapping a shuttle to them and buy (or license) some proper life support systems. After all the superiority of the latter was admitted for the ISS and the ISS runs with russian life support. So sticking to the 20+ year old crapper (literally) used on the shuttle is outright stupid.

      --
      Baker's Law: Misery no longer loves company. Nowadays it insists on it
      http://www.sigsegv.cx/
  11. Bubba Say Aint Gonna Be Cheap by Arbogast_II · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Unless a method unlike our rockets is developed, a cheap vehicle for leaving the earth is impossible.

    It is unrealistic until we gain alot more experience, to expect space travel to be safe. All that can be done is try to minimize risk. Those travelling should be fully informed as to the dangers. I doubt many astronauts expect it to be fully safe.

    Space travel is too important to mankind not to pursue it, even at great expense and some loss of human life. Congrats to them on keeping the shuttle going. If the program died, it might not be replaced in such a shortsighted world.

    The amazing thing to me is how FEW atronauts have died in such dangerous conditions.

    We live in a doubly amazing age. An era when machines became intelligent entities, and when the naked apes learned to leave this little rock called earth. Evolution is AMAZING!!!

    --


    HenryJamesFeltus.com
    1. Re:Bubba Say Aint Gonna Be Cheap by rusty0101 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      One thing to remember is that most of our rocket technology is based around getting ICBMs off the ground, and over the horizon. In other words they are designed around high thrust to weight ratios, and fairly high G forces.

      There have been a few other concepts for rockets, including variable thrust and SCRAM jets, (for the in atmosphere portion at least) that do not have the same requirements for thrust to weight, and can be less costly to operate.

      Another observation is that there are several alternative launch mechanisms that do not require nearly the volume of fuel that the current mechanism does, as they launch from higher altitudes, or from launch platforms that are already moving in the direction they desire the orbiter to go.

      As far as space travel being safe, it is neither safe to stay in bed, nor to get up. And that's without leaving the planet. That's part of life.

      -Rusty

      --
      You never know...
  12. RotK by Streiff · · Score: 4, Funny

    Dec 18, LotR: RotK, or the shuttle.

    Guess which I'm more excited about. :D

  13. Sad... by Captain+Igloo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ... to see that this useless vehicle is put back into operation, wasting money that could be spent for good space science and efficient transportation.
    A winged vehicle has nothing but disadvantages, except looking nice on TV when landing:
    - Wings impose a huge weight penalty
    - Re-entry with wings is unstable and requires active control
    - Wings are vulnerable due to their large surface

    The space shuttle is anything but re-usable. The boosters are not re-used, the tank is lost anyway and after landing, the shuttle is completely dis- and re-assembled.
    State-of-the-art expendable launchers can haul people into space (and bring them safely back) at a fraction of the cost: use a ballistic capsule with escape rocket and a parawing for enhanced flexibility during landing.
    The shuttle's only purpose is to fly to the ISS. The ISS's only purpose is to justify the existence of the shuttle. For the Hubble telescope alone, the shuttle would never have been built.

  14. If limited to the ISS.... by reality-bytes · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Its going to make the shuttle one incredibly expensive taxi service for the ISS.

    When the shuttle launches equipped to dock with ISS, it has an ammount of its payload bay consumed with the docking adapter.

    If the shuttle is used for the originally slated US module launches, this would indicate a valid use (although still very expensive in comparison to a Soyuz module launch).

    Now, here's my thinking. The Shuttle was a severe compromise of an originally good system (Flight launch Horizontal TakeOff and Landing) but ended up with the return vehicle pointlessly (and expensively) attached to an SRB+LOX rocket system.
    NASA is now likely to resume using the Shuttle - apart from anything this is quite political with China probably joining the elite club of nations who have launched people into space later this year. What NASA ought to be doing is saving the pennies by retiring the shuttle - not neccesarily immediately, but soon and putting out to tender a contract for a brand-new cost-effective launch system.
    The new system could be based around the original Ho.T.O.L concept which was mean to be the Shuttle.

    At the same time, NASA can be doing lots of new research into aerodynamic re-entry to safeguard lives in the future (FYI 2 aero-re-entry incidents to date - 1, X-15 and 1, STS).

    The major sticking point is simple: The U.S. government would have to get their wallet out!

    --
    Ripping an new rectum in the fabric of spacetime.
  15. Re:Good thing, hopefully by arth1 · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I hope NASA (and maybe other agencies around the world) are researching new forms of reusable craft...
    Reusable? A tiny fraction of what's launched actually returns in reusable form. The costs for transporting and overhauling the 30 year old shuttles between launches probably costs MORE than building new ones. Never mind that most of what's being launched is fuel -- solid, liquid and gas. If the point is being environmentally friendly, a rocket launch is less damaging. If the point is saving money -- well, it isn't saving money either, just spreading it over multiple budgets. Regards, -- Arthur Hagen
  16. December 18th - Reasoning by reality-bytes · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Its good that America wants to keep sending people into space but I can't help wondering about the politicism of the date.

    After all, rumoured to be around December this year, China is preparing to strap a hero of the communist state (a Taikonaut) to the front of an over-engineered Long-March rocket and send him for a couple of laps.

    I hope that NASA isn't being asked or pressured to rush things.

    In Communist China the rocket launches you!......oh wait......

    --
    Ripping an new rectum in the fabric of spacetime.
  17. to go or not to go, that is not the question. by bigpat · · Score: 4, Insightful

    People, myself included, have faulted NASA for past mismanagement of safety concerns. But my real concern is that they spend billions upon billions of dollars and employ thousands of the brightest engineers and scientists, and still make some of the stupidest mistakes which cost lives and money, but most importantly time.

    They have monopolized space exploration in the US far too long and provided a poor model for the rest of the world to follow, which has stifled innovation. They should be handing out research and exploration grants like the NSF does and performing reviews of the results to determine future funding. Not running a single space program for a single space station. All our eggs in one basket, as it goes.

    Arguments about the airworthiness of the space shuttle to me are pointless. It is a big machine with lots of parts and carries some risk of failure. It has been show to be able to fly successfully a high percentage of the time. Nothing they do to it will fundamentally change that situation. But by being the only game in town there can be no comparison of risk and no judgements made based on that comparison.

    NASA asks us, either fly or do not fly. This is not a free choice, to those of us that wish to see humans fly it means that we must choose the space shuttle regardless of risk or incompetence or anything.

    NASA will undoubtedly want more money to increase the safety of the space shuttle flights, but to what end? Any machine can be better maintained or operated, if we collectively choose a single means, and spend our collective resources and will on that means we could be on a fools errand. Like driving a car into the ocean. Sure we can keep tuning our procedures and plugging the leaks, but it ain't gonna get us to the other side. So that basic questions of design or operation are essentially meaningless when one only tries or has a single means. Like voting for the only candidate, the choice presented to us is meaningless. To go or not to go. To live or to die. Of course we must go, as we must live.

    Or do we? Maybe, when such a stark choice is put before us we must refuse to make it. Refuse the question. Should the shuttle fly or not? Ignore the question, it is inconsequencial to that which many of us care about. Space exploration is the purpose and the question, not the shuttle.

    Exploration of space is dangerous and will not survive safety concerns of collective action. Liken it to any human endeavor of significant unknown and danger and you will find it must be done by individuals. Individuals that have clarity of vision and certainty of purpose. It must be done by people, not by institutions or incorporations. People who know the risks, people that see the dangers, people that take the leap because they see the oppurtunity. People that learn and reason.

    If we are to keep NASA at all, then it must only be to find those people and give them a little bit of money or help. Like Queen Isabella giving Christopher Columbus enough money to get the supplies and men he needed. Not too much money though, because we know that to succeed in Space one will have to travel lightly, and the tendency of people with too much money is to buy things. We know that to succeed in space one needs to be quick, but the tendency of people with too much money is to spend time spending money.

    I expect the shuttle to fly again, because there are a lot of people who depend on it for their livelyhood. I expect that the shuttle will fly again because looking at the world a certain way, it makes sense to continue to do what we have been doing for the last two decades. I expect the shuttle to fly again because it is a link in a chain that could mean the end of the space station. Because it would mean the end to an entire generation's way of thinking.

    So there it is, the heads of NASA would like us to choose between their shuttle and nothing. Between the aspirations of mankind and bondage to this rock. It is a false choice.

  18. FACTs on ISS module launches by reality-bytes · · Score: 3, Informative

    The Russian Energia Booster (in current production) can lift 100 ton modules into LEO - this against the shuttles 30 ton payload.

    Russia has already launched the major modules Zarya and Zvesda using the Proton launch system.

    ESA is also in the future slated to launch a private module using the Arianne 5 launcher

    It is feasable (but undesirable) that the ISS could be completed without further use of the Shuttle (Although this would require a gigant re-think) Perhaps US modules could be sent to Baikonur with HeavyLift

    --
    Ripping an new rectum in the fabric of spacetime.