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Technology Buying Slump
mgcsinc writes "According to this Yahoo article from Reuters, IT buyers are continuing a trend of cutting costs, favoring utility over cutting-edge effect. Market researchers are estimating continuing doldrums in the industry and enterprise businesses see more 'bang for the buck' from making improvements in software as opposed to investing in new infrastructure. This is not necessarily awful, however, for those who hope businesses will start looking toward open source options as the cost effective alternatives..."
The party is over. What we now consider "doldrums" are here to stay. It's the new normal. Do you ever think businesses will return to extravagant spending?
Even when the economy heats up again (let it come soon!), people will point to the late 90s dot coms as the prime example of why they should not spend money on equipment that provides no immediate ROI.
"for those who hope businesses will start looking toward open source options as the cost effective alternatives..."
Why replace MS software when you can just fire me and hire an Indian for $35k/yr?
Oh wait... THEY ALREADY DID THAT
Maybe this is because companys have been burned enough times by "upgrades" that only cause downtime and break other apps?
TODO: Something witty here...
Would be nice but I very much doubt it. This sort of attitude only hurts the more specialised, cutting edge companies. The already established, "reliable" places like MS will only gain from this, I'd guess, as people become less and less likely to "take a chance" on less well known products. (been like that for a while though hasn't it?)
Well for small companys that provide quality, truely inovative products that solve REAL problems. The CA's and Peoplesofts that ship a product that require 2-3 years of independant consultants to get 'right' will be ancient history.
One could make the leap to believe that this means companies will embrace free, open source! software. Maybe. Or one could look deeper and see that companies are looking to standardize - something that open source software doesn't seem to doing.
There may be places in businesses that open source software will be able to make good progress in - I hope so - but it reads like IT managers are looking to the old standards (IBM, Microsoft, SAP, etc.) for the near-term fixes that they need and any new, whizbang ideas (e.g. wi-fi) will be met with strong resistance...
I'll probably be modded down for this, but let me candid here.
Well, certainly OS X wouldn't work where I'm at, where we deal with high-end CAD/CAM/CAE systems. They just plain don't write this stuff for Macs. And they never will.
The trend now is to Windows and (hopefully with the pending release of Pro/E for Linux) to Linux systems. I think a lot of non-open source, non-in-house developed UNIX applications probably won't ever be ported to Mac OS X because it's not taken seriously by folks who write these kinds of apps as a viable platform.
Don't get me wrong -- it certainly is. OS X is about as nice of a desktop UNIX as you'll be able to find in open or closed source UNIXes. Apple hardware is nice. But the guys who run UNIX at the high-end of the spectrum don't see it as a UNIX, it's a Mac, and it's nice for graphic designers and desktop publishers, and maybe even has some room for people doing surface modeling for design purpose, but it's not a CAD workstation, and it's certainly no server.
My journal has hot
The point I am getting to here is this: Americans have always, and will always, go with the shiny new "cool" object, even when they know better. This "slump" as with all slumps, is temporary. Americans, myself included, will come back to buy the product with the bells and whistles.
Karma: Can there be a void?
.. -. - . .-. .-. --- -...
eventually we'll migrate from Oracle to MySQL.
I'm not sure if its a "open source = cool/better" but this move sounds more like a "cut the front end costs and put it on unpaid OT on employees".
I don't know what the application is for, but Oracle -> MySQL is a step backwards.
The surprise isn't how often we make bad choices; the surprise is how seldom they defeat us.
No, seriously. Gamers aside, the average home or office user can get by just fine with technology from 2+ years ago. I have a p3-800 at work as do my 30 odd users and for email, web browsing, mp3s, terminals, etc it handles the work just fine. Sure a newer system would be nice but its impossible to justify the cost when things purr along smoothly as is.
I think the same applies for servers to a lesser extent. Unless you're anticipating a heavy load chances are good the job will get done fine with a box rustled out of the closet.
Unless the fundamental ways in which we interface with the computer change then the non-power user will have longer and longer periods between upgrades.
CommentBot 0.7a running with args "-module irritate,disagree -target random"
Wouldn't Postgres be a better opensource example?
Oracle to MySQL? Whomever is your CTO needs to be fired. Yes Open Source is great, yes open source solves some budget issues - but a migration of data from Oracle to Mysql along with the associated training and support (yeah support still ain't free) is likely to cost you more than you're saving.
Most computer parts are good for about 5 years tops... if everything was replaced in late 1999, what's gonna happen in 2004?
They just plain don't write this stuff for Macs. And they never will.
Actually, there have been a number of companies bringing their high end specialized *NIX code to the Mac including apps for molecular modeling, bioinformatics, GIS etc....
I think a lot of non-open source, non-in-house developed UNIX applications probably won't ever be ported to Mac OS X because it's not taken seriously by folks who write these kinds of apps as a viable platform.
Funny, I have had just the opposite experience.
But the guys who run UNIX at the high-end of the spectrum don't see it as a UNIX, it's a Mac, and it's nice for graphic designers and desktop publishers, and maybe even has some room for people doing surface modeling for design purpose,
I use OS X at the "high-end" of the spectrum to perform computational molecular phenotyping, manuscript preparation, creation of presentations, porting code, surfing the web, experimenting with performing reconstruction using yes, CAD software etc...etc...etc.... and....
and it's certainly no server.
Hosting several web_sites.
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In the late 1980's during the last recession, IT purchasers began to view computers as commidities like today. Some even questioned the increase of productivity of a pc compared to a typewriter. Instead of buying 386 and 486 systems they bought 8086's and 286's with only 1 or 2 megs of ram and cga and even monochrome video cards to save money.
At the same time they scaled down on large machine purchases. This was when SCO was mediocrely hot since a 386 server running Xenix or Openserver was cheaper then a mainframe.
Turns out the systems were not powerfull enough and caused more headaches when software evolved faster then the hardware. OS/2 and WIndows 3.0 came out and brand new things called Unix servers from Sun could provide the performance of a big mainframe for a fraction of the cost. (Back then it was mainframe/VAX or micro ).
Turns out it costs corporate America billions over the next decade to fix the problem.
Analyists today think history is repeating itself and the market will grow again. Ronald Reagan started this massive conservative business climate where tax cuts fueled stock prices and into profits. Same is happening again with an even more conservative president. But I think they are wrong.
The pc revolution is over!
Today a pc based file server running Linux can easily outperform most Sun's for a fraction of the price. A low end pc is just as fast as a high end one for basic office use. SGI is almost dead since a Windows box with a good video card can outperform them.
So unless a new technology on the horizon comes in I say the decline will continue.
What maybe next is bandwith and mobile computing improvements.
The desktop == mainframe. They are no longer where the industry is and the embedded/pda/cell phone is the next IT revolution. They are still evolving and thats where I guess the new market is.
May 1999 RIP. This is a permanent trend unless something pops up that requires new purchases that corporate American or even Joe sixpack can not live without.
http://saveie6.com/
How does name-calling like that get modded insightful??
Telling the truth is never racist. It is simply the truth. And hiring someone from India for 35K to do the job of an American is one of the reasons citizens here can't find jobs in the tech sector.
"It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
There hasn't been a single sys admin (or engineer in the pre-IT era) who didn't get financially clipped at some executive or corporate level.
It's a humbling gesture that keeps sys admins in their place and makes them come up with functional miracles with existing equipment purchases (think of Scotty from Star Trek).
Having been in the IT industry at all levels of the IT ladder, I've had to come up with my own fair share of miracles with existing equipment.
Basically, the rule is: Only buy when it's no longer cost-effective to rig something together with existing purchases.
This keeps bottom lines more realistic and prevents rogue sys admins from making their workstation into Pimp.Rig with company cash that could have been spent better elsewhere.
It's frustrating as hell, especially when no personal gain is intended, but such belt-tightening keeps companies afloat these days.
Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, START
Sadly this is true. Soon we'll be right back in the upswing with companies spending money hand over fist, raising interest rates, and rampant mergers. In part I blame some of the more clueless upper level management types who are swayed by a bells and whistles demo and then sell their IT department down the river because they spent a lot of money because they didn't know any better and never allowed their own IT shop to really investigate the options.
Three years ago I routinely purchased computers, parts, expansions, software, and so on. Though I still by software and maintenance supplies this is the longest I have gone without purchasing a new cpu, more, better vid card, or new computer. I have no plans to do so in the near future. I am currently hunkering down and getting the best out of what I got right now. This is speaking as a consumer. I believe other consumers, and perhaps businesses are in a similar mode right now.
"What we do in life echoes in eternity." Maximus Decimus Meridius
Lets not forget the South East Asian countries who stole all the textile production (where are those complaing dress makers BTW)
Or the Japanese for making cheaper cars.
Stop complaining and either become that much more compeetitve/invaluable or learn another field.
This is not necessarily awful, however, for those who hope businesses will start looking toward open source options as the cost effective alternatives..."
Those looking for jobs, however, will continue to deem the situation to be awful.......
Despite what everyone else is saying, I happen to like the slump... Computers are now cheaper than they've ever been. Walmart's $200 computer's look like overpriced cheap crap compared to what you can buy elsewhere.
Slashdot gets worse every day... Pipedot: News for nerds, without the corporate slant
As for the contention that this helps OSS, I'm very skeptical. Businesses have been slow to adopt OSS out of fear. They know about the cost savings, but they don't want to gamble their entire infrastructure on an unknown. A lack of a reason to buy new hardware won't change that basic fact.
Slump? Or finally figuring out that we do not, and never have needed to "upgrade" every 5 weeks...
help me i've cloned myself and can't remember which one I am
Does a G5 bring a bigger return for them in productivity?
If not then your boss is right. Not to sound like a jerk or anything but the idea of a computer is to be a tool.
Unless you run extremely complex photoshop sessions that take several minutes to complete its just not needed. For simple page editing a G4 imac is fine.
http://saveie6.com/
Cheap? He doesn't have to buy you more than is necessary to get the work done. If it's only a lousy $2,000, why don't you pay for the G5 you seem to want so much? Because $2,000 is a lot to spend.
Keyboard got soda spilt on it, okay. Does it still work? You've been using it for 6+ months, so I'm going to say yes. So there is no reason to replace it then. Furthermore, keyboards are pretty cheap, and since you spilt the soda on it, you should pay for it.
And seeing as how you still have a job, you really can't do much complaining.
YOU SUCK BALLS!
"I know it's secure because I can see the code"
If what you mean is that you've studied every line of code in Linux carefully to determine that exploits are not possible and assuming you're qualified to make such a judgement, then you can legitimately say it's secure based on your knowledge.
If what you mean is that you could theoretically determine it was secure because the source code is open, then you're just blowing smoke.
Not really large scale IT purchasing related but on a personal note my low end P4 system is simply not stressed by any of the current games or applications that I use. Mr Carmack will probably single handedly determine when my next upgrade will occur in lieu of the release of Doom 3. I think a lot of PC makers and graphics card manufacturers have their fingers crossed that Carmack and Valve will drive PC and hardware sales for the 4th quarter of 2003.
Much of the technology spending that happened in "the spending blow-out of the 1990s" was investment in infrastructure that IT people justified as preventing total collapse from Y2k. That stuff is just starting to wear out now, and it will be replaced gradually, rather than in another spending spree.
As it is so often mentioned on Slashdot, the average American just wants to word process, check email, and surf the web on their computer. Their cellphone can customize rings, play some games, and give them free long distance--fine.
If I can get the former for $700 with a monitor and printer and the latter for $40 a month, I'm pretty satisfied.
These aren't the killer apps you're looking for...move along.
Under capitalism man exploits man. Under communism it's the other way around.
did you even read the quote which you posted?
Yes. The "dream of a social order" is not that of a world social order but an American social order. Hey, I'm a nationalist. If someone outside the US wants to "attain their fullest stature" more power to them, but if that opportunity costs someone in the US, e.g. through the loss of a job, then I'm not for it. Mind you, this is a gross oversimplification of the whole situation and is not some hard and fast rule.
I appreciate the time you put into your thoughtful response. This is a subject we could spend hours discussing in person and still end up where we were at the beginning. I will say that yes, I know where the inexpensive stuff comes from (and I do try to buy US made stuff where I can) and the American Dream quote says nothing about who gets what ("to each according to need"), but nice parting troll shot anyway.
I don't know what the application is for, but Oracle -> MySQL is a step backwards
A step? Oracle -> SQL Server 2000 is a step backwards. Oracle -> MySQL is like replacing your Ti80 with an abacus.
Send lawyers, guns, and money!
"I read every line of code before I compile it"
That's nice but it's going to take a lot more effort than that to insure it's secure.
"Of course, you wouldn't know what "efficiency" and "quality" are, since you use closed-source proprietary crap."
Well, unless you designed your own microprocessor, wrote your own BIOS etc, you also use closed source stuff so I guess we are both in the same boat.
Now that we don't need a new computer every few years, it's killed the upgrade cycle. Oh yeah, it starts out innocently enough. We want the source code and all that.
But then it actually starts making things cheaper and more cost effective, and all of a sudden people stop buying new things. I haven't bought a new computer since 2000!
We NEED software that's slower with every generation!
When someone might yell at me, it has to be OpenBSD.
A step? Oracle -> SQL Server 2000 is a step backwards. Oracle -> MySQL is like replacing your Ti80 with an abacus.
Remember....many (most) companies who only needed word processing were buying $2500+ machine to put on people's desks not too long ago. Maybe this guys company did the same thing with back ends and are finally coming to terms with that fact (and the fact that they can't just expect their cusomters to shell out for Oracle licenses on top of their software and need to cut costs to lower prices and/or increase margins).
Do not fold, spindle or mutilate.
Most serious admins run *nix or windows
No serious admins run Windows, and all serious admins know that Mac OS X is *nix.
Then why aren't we using metric?
:)
Duh! Because it's French.
Please help find my missing daughter: FindSabrina.org
except for diamonds and oil
Samsung took back my unlocked bootloader because Google wants me to rent movies. They're both evil.
You can pick up P100s with 32MB of RAM and a decent PCI NIC very cheap now. These make very good LTSP thin clients - trust me. I'm presently deploying a set of such machines, and the results are good so far.
/new/ hardware to make intelligent new deployments. We're buying machines, but the vendors will never count it because they're second hand. Now, if I could get reasonable systems (say, a slow diskless VIA C3 with 64mb of RAM in a little box with PXE capability) for reasonable prices (no DVD decoder, thanks - I want AU$300 each), new would be an option.
The point: you don't have to have
Unfortunately, new computers seem to be in two categories - stupidly fast, cheap and crap, and insanely ridiculously fast, expensive, and somewhat less crap. I'm looking for slow, basic, quiet, VERY CHEAP, and not crap - and it's proving hard to come by.
Hence, we resort to old hardware like OEM P100s that fit our needs better than anything being made now.
Also, MS are sitting on a cash mountain ($40 bn +) like the world has never seen, allowing them to ride out the storm.
Humorous signatures are over-rated.
It isn't FUD because it is true. What open source advocates call "choice", those on the outside looking in will call confusion. How is an IT department head supposed to make a choice for a major investment in IT? Do you go with Microsoft who, no matter how much you hate them, you know will be around in five years and can somewhat reliably predict ROI, or do you go with X, who just put together a good, solid, working competitive product based on opensource, but may close shop next year?
Companies don't want to - and won't - support their own software if they can help it. That is what the talk about "IT being an investment" and "IT doesn't matter" is all about - it isn't FUD, it is what company executive (read: those that make the rules in companies that actually have money to invest) are thinking.
This is not necessarily awful, however, for those who hope businesses will start looking toward open source options as the cost effective alternatives..."
It doesn't seem to matter how many people they've laid off or how tight their budgets are. They keep reachin' fer th' M$ brand. They still don't view M$ as extravagant. They will scrimp on office supplies and cutback perks and benefits but M$ spending is like a sacred cow. We're bombarded with one email borne virus after another and they are unfazed. M$ prices remain high and it's license terms onerous, yet they are unmoved. I just can't imagine how much worse the downturn will have to get before they "start looking toward open source".
Wansu, th' chinese sailor
I realize that it's about as useless as complaining about the press referring to crackers as hackers, but:
Technology != IT !!!!!
Those of us who work in technological fields ~outside~ of computing/telecom get a little annoyed when people use the term "Tech sector" or "Tech spending" to refer to only the IT sector. If you mean "Information Technology", call it that, or use the handy term "IT". Please don't co-opt the word Technology to only mean your little bits and bytes. Rockets, airplanes, oil-wells, nuclear submarines and medical breakthroughs also involve a little bit of "Technology" too, and it's annoying when analysts refer to the companies who make these things as not being "Tech companies". We can't help if the press is stupid, but this is Slashdot - we are Techie nerds and should know better.