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Yet Another Big Solar Flare
philthedrill writes "CNN is reporting that the sun has fired another large solar flare towards Earth. This one could arrive as early as Thursday (Oct. 30th) afternoon. (insert end-of-the-world statement here)."
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Who Cares. I mean after awhile this becomes so boring. Jesus can't we pick on SCO today.
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!
pumping our sun to supernova so they can power their lightsails to the next star system.
Phoenix
"I have not seen anything like it in my entire career as a solar physicist. The probability of this happening is so low that it is a statistical anomaly."
You know, 'statistical anomaly' is NOT what I want to hear from solar physicists about my particular sun.
SO YOU'RE GOING TO DIE: The Comic for Dealing with Death
Why do I suddenly feel like making backups of all my important data... and why do I think it will be of absolutely no use at all?!
Ceci n'est pas une signature
See www.spaceweather.com for more info. SEC's Space Weather Now, however, seems to be down (www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN).
Do these flares affect humans (or even wildlife) at all? You know, even if it is the same way that pets can sense when an earthquake is about to happen....
Well, will tinfoil hats protect us from onslaught of solar flares? i have a whole stockpile.. $5.99 a piece, message me for details!
Excuse me, I don't mean to impose, but I am the ocean
Probably by sheer luck and bad timing, I had 3 monitors all fail on the same day while I was at a customers. Couldn't explain the failure (it was definitely an anomoly) but maybe it had something to do with bad power that may have been caused by fluctuations in the power grid?
a kid in rural Kansas is accidentally throwing a tractor a half mile from his farm.
"I would say that 99 per cent of what my father has written about his own life is false." - L. Ron Hubbard Jr.
It's a pity that more people don't get to view these phenomena, because of modern light pollution. How many people are losing awe-inspiring sights, such as this and the milky-way?
((lambda x ((x))) (lambda x ((x))))
Stupid sun.
I'll take all the cellphone interruptions I can get. Go sun go!
-your sig here
Y'know, I don't really care. I don't really like talking about my flair.
Pun intended.
:-)
This could shape up to be a really amazing Halloween. For some reason, that 80's movie about Halley's comet's tail intersecting the earth and making zombies out of everyone that wasn't in a lead-lined room comes to mind. I, for one, will welcome our new zombie overlord masters.
1. 2.
From the article:
Space weather forecasters say this spate of strong solar flares is not consistent with normal solar behavior. The sun, which follows an 11-year activity cycle, has been quieting down since the last peak in 2000.
Although we humans have been looking at the sun since before we climbed out of the trees (and our moms have been telling us not to even longer), it's almost silly to say that any observation of our local star is "not consistent with normal solar behavior." Just how many of those 11-year cycles have been recorded?
If the ancient Chinese were using pinhole solar viewers to count sunspots for the past 5000 years, that would be one thing. But as has been posted in every Slashdot story on the subject, we have maybe 200 years of scientific data (of varying quality) out of the sun's five billion year history. Even W's pollsters would tell you that sample size is too small.
Stressed? Me? Of course not. Stress is what a rubber band feels before it breaks, silly.
I wonder how it'll affect the BPL test sites. Most BPL (broadband over powerline) would be affected somehow since they operate on HF frequencies. Additionally most shortwave radio was adversely affected.
I saw some of last night's aurora from my location in SE Arkansas. Anyone else see the aurora?
I've coated the whole motherboard with SPF-50 sunblock. Ain't none of that darn sun radiation gonna get my computer.
If anyone needs me I'll be out back holding my hotdog-on-a-stick up real high...
p.s. Anyone else smell coconut burning?
> (insert end-of-the-world statement here)
Or at least the end of my superpowers! Somebody saaaavveee mmmeeeee...
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
Best headline I saw on these was on MSNBC Wednesday. My wife told me about it, but I went and confirmed myself:
Space Storm hits; Earth Survives
Which, of course, is amazing news and you certainly wouldn't have known if the alternative had occurred.
I'd provide a link, but like most of the online news outlets they readily change story headlines and content throughout the day. It's completely different now and talks about the current state and the upcoming flare output tomorrow (Friday).
The Ultimate Slashdotting.
End of Line.
The peak in the current cycle was a few years back....see the NOAA's SolarCycle page Considering it's an 11 year cycle, we are supposed to be on the downswing right now....also, don't forget that we're now at two major storms in the last few days, emmenating from two massive (and still growing) sunspots on the surface of the sun...so, I would call this something extraordinary.
When I read this line, "I have not seen anything like it in my entire career as a solar physicist. The probability of this happening is so low that it is a statistical anomaly.", I cringed. Either a) This guy thinks his model is great & really believes that this is a 1/1,000,000,000 event, or b) he knows that this indicates a whole in his model, but the reporter ripped the quote out of context to make the story more sensational.
A little statistics primer is in order. In order to quote odds on anything, a statistician needs a model, generally based on existing data. When there is an event that's off the charts, it will usually indicate to the scientist (or engineer) that there is a deficiency in their model (or their process is out of control, for manufacturing types). If I were a solas scientist, this event would indicate to me that the model is not adequate for predicting this sort of thing. Which makes sense, since we probably only have 40 years worth of data; you expect to be thrown a curve-ball every now and then.
So I doubt it really is a statistical anomanly; maybe these solar-flare pairs occur every 50 years or so & that's why we haven't seen it before. But either the reporter needs to better explain the meaning of the quote, or the quotee needs to take a basic course on the limits of statistical probability.
I do however think a very very limited number of people could survive in deep mineshafts. Bring down a small nuclear generator, some source of oxygen, lights, canned foods and enough plants and seeds to be able to start some sort of food production, and I think a few people could survive for a number of years.
The main problems I see is that they have no way presumably of making the machinery necessary to keep things in good repair and to replace broken equipment. So without a lot of foresight, I dont' think those people would have more than a few years. Although it does make one wonder if some small secret govt. group has thought of and prepared for this contingency. Who really knows?
I also think the social chaos on the surface would kill off most everyone before a day or two are up.
The sending of this message pretty much inconveniences everyone involved.
Aurora pictures from last night
The above page has pictures taken in places like Georgia, Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas... some *great* views in Colorado, too. Alaska? The entire sky was green and red last night.
It was too windy here ( SF bay area ) for me to have ventured out last night. Ok, I admit, I forgot to look. My view to the north sucks anyway.
It was cloudy and raining when I posted the last time.
However it cleared up by evening. I was working late keeping an eye on the Real-Time Aurora Map which was looking pretty quiet when all of a sudden almost the entire northern hemisphere is coverd in a big red circle.
Went outside and sure enough, the Northern sky is aglow in blue and red.
Very cool.
If you don't want to repeat the past, stop living in it.
I only hope the spirit of Douglas Adams is out there enjoying the show.
--- Ban humanity.
Sun delivers yet another shot at Earth
In other news, President George W. Bush as extended the Axis of Evil to include the Sun. "This supposed ally has been flexing its nucular [sic] muscles without U.N. oversight for generations. While small infractions can be overlooked, a direct strike at the U.S. will not be ignored."
One interesting effect from the fires in California (specifically San Diego) is that the smoke has made it very easy to view the sun. Since the smoke has been so dense, the sun has appeared as this rich red-orange disc in the sky, with little dark dots on it where the solar flares are. I wish I had taken a picture, but I'm sure somebody can dig one up on google.
According to the BBC, magnetic north varied by 5 degrees in 25mins starting from 0830 GMT, as the storm swept passed us.
lets burn down the observatory so that this never happens again!
It seems you agree perfectly with the moderation of his comment.
You tell me how "whilst" differs from "while," and I'll stop calling you a pretentious jackass.
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solarsystem/pe rfect_space_storm.html
... was this: ... From August 28 to September 2 several solar flares were observed. Then, on September 1, the Sun released a mammoth solar flare. For almost an entire minute the amount of sunlight the Sun produced at the region of the flare actually doubled."
... just a couple days ago.
"Remarkably, science has documented solar events a hundred times more intense... But none of them interacted with the Earth in such a violent manner."
"What transpired
"The question I get asked most often is, 'Could a perfect space storm happen again, and when?'" added Tsurutani. "I tell people it could, and it could very well be even more intense than what transpired in 1859. As for when, we simply do not know."
Perhaps we're looking at something similar now. Interestingly, the article I grabbed these quotes from was published 10.24.03
For those of you wondering, this is a reference to Larry Niven's "The Fourth Profession". This is considered one of Niven's best short works.
... spaceship captain ... teleporter .... translator ... but Ed can't remember how many pills he took, or if the confusing overload of information in his head shadows the terrible secret of their mission.
---
Summary is as follows:
An interstellar trading ship arrived in the moon's orbit two years ago, and the few aliens who have descended to Earth have stayed in their landing craft or at the United Nations building in New York City. When one of the aliens unexpectedly shows up in a Los Angeles tavern, bartender Ed Frazer awakes the next morning with the strangest hangover of his life. Ed barely remembers taking the pills offered by the alien; each pill flooding his brain with the knowledge of an alien profession
++
Alternate between lots of sex and quiet contemplation. That way, when you die you're 50% happy and 50% solemly dignified. :)
Does this mean I should repent for my sins, or do a lot of sinning while there's still time?
Things that make you go "Hmmm..."
From Dictionary.com:
whilst
conj. Chiefly British
While.
[Middle English whilest, alteration of whiles, whiles. See whiles.]
I have no problem with your religion until you decide it's reason to deprive others of the truth.
CNN: "Power grids in the northern United States and Canada felt the effects of the first storm. Utilities endured power surges and closely monitored their systems to prevent surges, according to NOAA."
... This magnetic field change, which occurs fairly rapidly, then induces currents in nearby conductors. ... In those areas that do not have high conductivity, such as those areas that contain igneous rock, the induced current flows through any available current path-typically, the long utility system lines for power, gas, oil, water, and telecommunications."
Check out this article for more details on how solar flares cause these surges.
Excerpt:
"If (when) this flow of charged particles and embedded magnetic field collides with the Earth, it dramatically disrupts Earth's geomagnetic field and ionosphere, changing the terrestrial magnetic fields
Take off, every Hoser
The human body produces over 20000 BTU's of heat... more during vigorous physical activity... perfect chance for us to get girls!
You can have it fast, accurate, or pretty. Pick any 2.
Data != Information Over the years, my flatulence may have had varying degrees of strength. It has both pleased and offended many. Some still remember certain spectacular events while others have passed into obscurity. But none of this tells you if I ate a chillidog, nor the quantity. There is no substitue for analysis of directly observed data.
Maybe we should get a craft with solar sail up and waiting asap, for next event? :)
Which is itself a nod from Matt Groening to Asimov's classic short "Nightfall"
-- your Web browser is Ronald Reagan
I'm in northern Scotland, and I saw it (faintly) last night (that is, around 11 PM on the 29th). A couple of people I've spoken to said they saw it much brighter around 9 PM
Curiosity was framed. Ignorance killed the cat.
There isn't enough force developed to make a perceptible change in our orbit, even over geologic time.
However, hundreds of tons of our upper atmosphere is ejected into space and, to some degree, carried off downstream in the solar wind, during these events. So, a small part of our planet has it's orbit profoundly altered by these events. The loss rate is modest and partly compensated by acquired material from dust and meteorites. But this could influence atmospheric composition over geologic time. The plume coming from Venus has been detected near Earth.
ThosEM