Europe Vs. North America in WiFi growth.
r.future writes " InfoSync World and netstumbler.com have posted an interesting story that speculates about the financial growth of WiFi networks In Europe anD North America from 2003-2008. The story states: 'Insight Research's analysis of the WiFi industry, WiFi in North America and Europe: Telecommunications' Future 2003-2008, suggests that wireless LAN technology - increasingly popping up in public spaces such as airports and cafes, in private residences, and in businesses - will grow faster in Europe than North America. Worldwide WiFi revenues are expected to grow from $7 billion USD in 2003 to over $44 billion USD by 2008, at a compounded annual rate of 44 percent.'"
Being a dedicated New Urbanist, I often see comparisons between the United States and Europe in an urban-development light. What comes to mind regarding the faster expansion of WiFi in Europe is the added emphasis that Europeans seem to place on public space.
There is a greater tendency to gather in concentrated areas (witness the Cafe culture prevalent through the continent) and an overall higher density that is much more conducive to the increased usage of WiFi hotspots.
I wouldn't be surprised if, just based on the tighter physical plant of your average European city, a resident or visitor is much more likely to be within range of an 802.11b/g hub, different attitudes towards technological adoption notwithstanding.
In September, while travelling between Bern(CH) and Frisco.
I had the sweet surprise to see some Wifi logo in SFO.
I then open my iBook and check for a network, which I find.
I try to browse and find a web page which asks me to pay 25$.
Bullshit!
How do they believe they will sell such access, especially to people who need at most one hour accesses ???
If you want such networks to develop, you will have to give the access for FREE (as in Beer).
Trolling using another account since 2005.
If it's growing so fast over here in Europe, why can I still not find a free wi-fi point outside of my University library?
catch (HumourFailureException e) { e.user.send("You, sir, are a humourless idiot."); }
Certainly in Belgium, the main ISP (ironically called "Skynet") is pushing wireless ADSL routers. It makes sense: home internet users are already so down on security that it's hard to imagine wireless making any difference.
But for public access? Way too expensive, for one, and secondly there are really few people who trot around with their laptops, with the exception of air travellers, where wifi is a definite niche product with a future.
There have been projects to create free acess wifi networks around European cities but these need a level of collaboration which Europeans don't seem able to give.
Finally, Europe is _so_ wired. Why go wireless? For instance, in Brussels, there must be several hundred cybershops which offer internet at 1 Euro per hour.
Ceci n'est pas une signature
Is there any reason to be suprised by this?
The USA has been behind in the uptake of a lot of technologies recently - mobile, WiFi and broadband to make just three.
Why is this? Many Americans that it is because of the USAs more disperse population, but personally I find that a very poor excuse considering, for instance, the places with the strongest usage of these technologies (Norway, Finland) are actually harsh environments with disperse populations.
Personally I think the route cause may be fairly simple. It has become common in the USA to believe that a completely free market always comes up with the most efficient solution, and that which is best for the people. Perhaps this just isn't true in these situations.
So for instance, the competing standards for the mobile phone networks in the USA, where as in Europe they agreed on a standard beforehand. Perhaps government regulation of this sort in Europe is actually a good, positive thing?
It has also become worryingly popular in the USA of late to dismiss outright views that don't fit the neo-Con agenda, so I expect I am going to be mocked by some for even proposing that government regulation might be senisble in some situations, and that the European system might be better in this regard. It is interesting to note that the World Economics Forum recently identified Finland as being the most competitive country in the world from a business perspective, despite it being a fully paid up member of the EU and the Euro currency.
Dial up access sucks in UK since one has to pay per-minute phone rates, even local calls. Worse, it looks like my poor ole trusty ISP that I've had an account on since 1982* (no lie) that I kept around for worldwide access (compuserve classic) is dropping local numbers. In England they now only have a national number (and it ain't toll free of course).
Any hints on where to find hot spots (free or otherwise) in England, specifically London and that boring center bit (Northamptonshire)?
* Ah, the good ole days of Compuserve in the 80s. $6.00/hr for 300 baud, and of course, no connections to anywhere else. Even at just 300 baud, the output often sat there waiting since their box was so busy. Then AOL came around and killed them off.
Wifi is nice, but it gross overestimation that people are willing to spend that much just to surf the net while they are walking in driving.
The "problem" is that most people who need net daily already have connection at home and at work. Thus they would use Wifi only if it's cheap.
Communism/socialism would be wrong even if it worked, because it entails a loss of individual freedom.
In this case, the proper calculus is not limited to, "Which system or combination of systems produces the greatest benefit to the greatest number of people?" There are lots of other considerations as well, including, "Is it fair to confiscate someone's income to benefit someone else?" and "Is it right to command decisions that can be left to individual choice?"
This last one IMO outweighs all other considerations in this particular case: e.g., I simply do not think it is right for the government to say, "Thou shalt use GSM!" to the exclusion of all other technologies. Protecting the rights of individuals to choose the technology that suits them best instead of commanding one from above is morally superior, whether it leads to fragmentation or not.
Besides, not a single person has yet demonstrated to my satisfaction that the proliferation of wireless technologies has at all been responsible for the lower per capita wireless use in the US.
(Furthermore, in this particular case, CDMA---the best, and most clever, mobile technology---never would never have appeared if the US had the same needless restrictions on wireless systems that Europe does.)
Finally, stop picking on "neo-Cons": there is a large coalition of forces who believe in the superiority of the free market to command economies. I point to economic growth during the US's recessions rivaling Europe's times of normal productivity as evidence that the free market, despite all invective against it from the left in media and the academy, works incredibly well. The US's biggest problem may be that it doesn't rely on the free market more often.
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Population spread in Europe is much denser than in the US, it's not inconceivable that WiFi successors to 802.11a and g could quite happily link on a city to city basis. I mean, in Europe, distances are tens of miles rather than hundreds of miles.
Ergo, Europe is likely to have more WiFi access than the US - basically because the scale of WiFi fits the geographical scale more closely...
Another factor:
7 7.htm
In general, European cities are older / more historical etc. It is not as ease to get planning permission to dig up roads for fiber optics.
This makes wireless feasible.
But, the US generally has taller buildings, so why are you not using this advantage?
Also, satellite broadband is becomming increaingly popular with very high bandwidth:
Germany and the Netherlands have excellent satellite services in place. France and the UK are not far behind.
Related story:
http://www.computerweekly.com/Article1122
My own country is slow to develop in this regard unfortunately:
http://www.dublinwan.org
Hehe. These AC's posts always make me smile.
I'd like to think they're the act of some mischievous drone from Iain Banks' Culture universe... using its effectors and fields to insert strangely-capitalized musings into Earth's primitive datasphere...
What's the frequency, Kenneth?
Yes, it would be better if everybody drove on the side of the road he wishes and the voltage in the plug was different in each town.
It's not about state ownership. It's about regulation.
Save the bandwidth. Don't use sigs!
there are a few good reasons for the faster growth rate in europe. first of all europe's countrys are smaller, and so a single provider can cover a whole country's hotspots without going bancrupt because of hardware costs. here in austria the largest cellular carrier is planing to launch WLAN. as far as i know they are using the antennas they use for gsm transmission also as wlan hotspots. this makes sense especially in cities where the antenna density is quite high. in my opinion customers will prefer that they receive access from a single provider instead of having to make a subscription in every major city. since coverage of all american city's by a single provider is almost not feasible the people will be more sceptical about the WLAN.
so, to sum it up: Europe's average small country size is the main reason for the faster spreading of WiFi technology
".Sig Stealer" was here
I see WiFi hardware being sold to places that want easy access available for their own purposes - homes, workplaces as well as cafes etc, but whether commercial/subscription access will be as big is less convincing.
Phil
...the flaw in this analogy?
Driving on your own side of the road = clear and present danger to life.
Using different wireless technologies on different bands = no such danger.
Come on, you (the moderators) can do better than this.
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I guess PDAs are not that big in Europe, esp. PDAs with WiFi.
I'm in the UK and I recently purchased a palm tungesten T3.
PDAs with WiFi are not common, period.
They are physically bigger, much more expensive, have even worse battery life and there's not many models to choose from. I'm sure that my next PDA will have wifi not bluetooth but that's in a year or two.
My Karma: ran over your Dogma
StrawberryFrog
C'mon! There's this "research" paper claiming some figures for WiFi spending in 2008 in Europe and the US. And everybody and his brother goes with his insightful explanation, as if it was a fact.
Last time I checked, 2008 was in the future. And AFAIK, nobody knows the future. It's not like we never experienced that. The Internet bubble is not so old that we forgot its lessons. Do you remember the 2004 projections for internet advertising or 3G mobile data consumption back in 2000?
No, the US are not lagging behind because of the neo-cons, population density or consumer culture or whatever. The US ARE not lagging behind, period. The ONLY fact we can comment is that some (unknown) guy pretends that they WILL in 5 years.
It would be nice to be sure of anything the way some people are of everything.
Well, as long as the still US has the majority of high-tech jobs then I won't mind too much (India is more of a threat than Europe is). Wi-fi networks will be available here where they are useful, and they certainly shouldn't be subsidized just so that we can say that our Wi-Fi networks are growing faster than Europe.
Well, even though CDMA is apparently so much better (I hear this line a lot, but frankly I care about usability and not about technical merits as a user) I think it's extremely smart to have decided on (or if you prefer to have dictated) a standard, which has been taken up by roughly a billion people worldwide (except huge parts of the US and South Korea I think) in contrast to the joke they call "wireless services", which I had the misfortune to experience on various visits to the US.
In addition (and if I'm a slimy, evil commie so be it, alas you guys seem to have a strange definition for communism/socialism) I think it's extremely desireable not to have such vital technologies hijacked by an ip company, but that such technology is being owned by a consortium with a formal Antitrust Policy and thus by the public at large.
ich bin der musikant
mit taschenrechner in der hand
kraftwerk
I'm in a similar situation, in that I'm visiting Japan for a week in a short while. I'm going to be staying somewhere with a phone line, but no Internet connection. Does anyone know of a free ISP in Japan I can dial into? I'm taking my PowerBook with me, which has a built-in modem.
I am TheRaven on Soylent News
If you are in central london, there are *many* free points. Just walk down Oxford street, and you will find tons of open networks. There is a really good one outside Selfridges.
Edgware Road is the same. Ditto goes for the Kings Cross area.
The biggest problem you will encounter is how to use your laptop without getting soaked.
Live today. Tomorrow will cost a lot more!
thousands ?
A spot costs 200$.
It might just be enough for a plane's passengers. (only one or 2 dozens might actually use it)
Proxy them the whole internet so that they get an ad frame each time they surf.
The ads will be about bargains or sales in the duty free shops.
So, each shop will surely make a little money out of the little investment it takes : browsing the Internet with a laptop is not the same as letting anymone Torrentse.cx his harddisc, is it ?
Now, of course, this won't earn companies millions but it might make their customers (the flight passengers) happy.
So, they'll tell their fellows travellers...
Seriously think about this instead of posting such an idiotic comment, Mr "Vrai" (as in "Ivraie").
Trolling using another account since 2005.
Considering that Europe is light years ahead of the US in wireless phone ownership. When a 'study' reports that Europe will lead the US in WiFi deployment, all I can say is
No Duh!
As for poorer passengers (who are stuck out in the main terminal anyway) - I'm pretty sure that the duty free shops would rather have people browsing out of boredom rather than glued to their laptops. After all, that's how the shops make sales.
Airlines have demonstrated on many occasions that they don't give a s*** about non-premium class passengers - why are they going to bother offering them free web access? If you want that I suggest you fly business class from now on.
I assume that was an attempt at an ad hominem. However given that I don't have a f***ing clue what 'Ivraie' means it wasn't very effective.We do have unmetered dialup, usually costing around 12 a month - but this is tied to a particular landline. If you manage to get your hands on an AOL CD (harder than you think when you actually want on) you can sign up for unlimited access via an 0800 number (1-800) which'll allow you to dialup from any line. Better still they usually give you a free months trial so that's a free month for each credit card you own.
All the frequent flyer lounges I've ever been in have either free internet terminals or WiFi - so airlines have already taken care of that.
;) so, what you have to remember is "Ivraie" is not "true", it rather is the bit you'll drop when harvesting...
How many frequent flyers are there for one occasional flyer ?
I don't plan to fly every week, do I have not to benefit from a wireless access point in 2002 ?
What if this gives salers further occasion to get me in their shops ?
My point is : it will rather gain airports/lines/shops money than lse them some.
Now, they way they can earn money by giving away internet access still has to be handled on a per-airport basis.
However given that I don't have a f***ing clue what 'Ivraie' means it wasn't very effective.
I like to teach interseting stuff to young people (even Brits
Trolling using another account since 2005.
In April of 2001, some authority or other stated that "Bluetooth To Work In Nearly 1Bil Devices By 2005."
At the time, there were approximately 0Bil Bluetooth devices in existance. Frankly, that number was pulled straight out of someone's ass and is just another reason I consider such forcasts to be irresponsibly bogus.
--Richard
A spot costs 200$.
$150 a month for reasonable bandwidth. Cable and DSL in some areas charge more for businesses than residences.
Businesses would probably have to pay for installation, setup and all tech support. $200 will buy you a consumer level unit not a commercial one. I would say setup is closer to $500 (with installation costs from the ISP) with an average reoccuring charge for maintence and access at $200.
This turns out to be a lot of money for small cafes that sell donuts and coffee. If you were internet illiterate and someone approached you and said that they would provide the equiptment and internet access for free allowing you to advertise that you have wifi -or- you could float the bill and the responsibility, which would you choose?
Some larger chains like Panera Bread (breafast/lunch shop) do provide free access. However they get stung because with a high volume of customers during the morning-afternoon hours people are content on spending 1$ on a cup of coffee and sitting there for two hours. Actual customers that do not even seek access have no where to sit.
No this isnt a conspiracy against the working man, the shops just want to stay profitable. I doubt a cafe or a bookstore for that matter will make millions.
Bear in mind that non-frequent flyers aren't that individually important to airlines. Hence that massive disparity in service between coach and non-coach. There isn't a massive economic incentive to give economy class passengers anything over the bare minimum.
The beauty of having been the birthplace the world's most important (according to Weber et al) language is that we don't have to waste time learning any other ones. I believe they even teach it in Switzerland these daysNo this isnt a conspiracy against the working man, the shops just want to stay profitable. I doubt a cafe or a bookstore for that matter will make millions.
I doubt it too, but I think if the Terminal shops associates, they will not lose money, hence my remark.
Trolling using another account since 2005.
It's because you called SF 'Frisco'. We automatically overcharge people that refer to our town as 'Frisco' *shudder*.
you believe that your average traveller is likely to purchase more at duty free if they are advertised at using WiFi.
... :)
No, you just misunderstood my whole point : what I actually "believe" is that it should be possible for a bunch of shops not to lose money offering Wifi in an Airport Terminal. This obviously involves advertising (how do shops make money ?)
Bear in mind that non-frequent flyers aren't that individually important to airlines. Hence that massive disparity in service between coach and non-coach. There isn't a massive economic incentive to give economy class passengers anything over the bare minimum.
I just consider my situation and the one of most people I know : we do not travel that much were we given the choice to fly or take the train, the internet access would be consider after both time and costs aspects.
I do not know how many of each of us there are, if there are more frequent flyers or occasional ones but I guess there'd be some opportunity which could be triggered by giving people a way to communicate with others while being able to send them messages.
The beauty of having been the birthplace the world's most important (according to Weber et al) language is that we don't have to waste time learning any other ones. I believe they even teach it in Switzerland these days
If you argue this regarding my typo, then, well, I just have to get more used to this Swiss German keyboard.
Trolling using another account since 2005.
Sigh, I more and more get the impression that you're either a troll or some sort of a free market fanatic of the take no prisoner sort.
Anyway, here's the plan to follow if you want to pay for incoming phone calls in Europe, doesn't matter if from a cell phone or a land line (with the exception of international roaming of course):
There is no need to thank me.
ich bin der musikant
mit taschenrechner in der hand
kraftwerk
What is your problem? Why do you feel the need ot elevate yourself above your fellow man?
How would you like to work in a school filled with trash and messy tables?
The janitor's job is just as difficult as the teachers, perhaps even more so. It is a thankless job as well. Yet he does it. Why should he not be compensated equally?
what is the point of massive public wirelesss if none of the companies allow interconnect. Europe has always been ahead of the US in corp sharing, their governments demand it. Here our's forbids it :) Heck I still cant sms people half the people becuase they are on a different service, that only support their own system. The upside is we do not adopt early so sometimes we get a better transport method when the LAME ass companies suddenly discover that there is money to be made in a market they have been denying for 5 years....
errr....umm...*whooosh* *whoosh* Is this thing on ?
Technically everything north of (and including) Panama is in North America: USA, Canada, and Mexico being the largest by area. Here's some maps of North America, which lists 25 countries, most of which are island nations.
In surface area (which is what matters in telecom), the continent of Europe is est. 3,837,000 Sq. Miles (9,938,000 Sq. Km) vs North America at 9,365,000 Sq. Miles (24,256,000 Sq. Km). The United States alone comes out to 3,537,438 Sq. Miles.
$44 billion/44% growth? These numbers mean there will be a tremendous market for Wi-Fi goods and services.
Incidentally, one of those services includes selling research reports telling you about how great the Wi-Fi market is going to be.
Prices from Insight Research's web site:
Hard Copy Price $3995
Electronic Copy Price (PDF License Descriptions) $ 4695 Single-User Printable PDF
$ 6995 6-Seat Printable PDF
$ 10000 Unlimited Corporate-Wide Distribution
TIP: before investing four thousand dollars into a report telling you all about a miraculous new $44 billion dollar market, head to the corporate kitchen, find a salt packet in the old condiment drawer, open it, pour a few grains into your hand, and take one.
Didn't anyone learn anything about "conflicts of interest" during the bubble years?
WiFi in the states isn't growing because there isn't demand from consumers for it. There is not demand because there is no killer-app we must have at all times. Even email isn't worth the cost. If you need to take email/calander with you, sync it to your PDA. Need an update? Call the office and the secetary checks for you or changes your appoitments. Yes most would say it would be cool to do it ovber the pda and wifi, but those same people don't value it enough to pay for it.
Also, the devices suck, esp the interfaces. This is partly the industries fault, the latest models are introduced in EU and Japan years before the US. Yes, this is because the US isn't setup for the features of the latest devices, but you can see the chicken and egg problem here.
Also, consider the markets of Japan and EU. In the EU they are used to paying for metered access - most people in the US want a flat fee and don't care for metered access no matter how good the deal. In Japan, put a pokemon on the display and it's the latest craze for the kids. In the US kids don't text each other - it's a friggen phone, they call each other. Plus on our dated models it takes 3-10x longer to type in a short text message than just calling the person.
Fact is there is not the demand in the US. Broadband is struggling because of lack of demand. Most people that have the option, hell several options, won't spend $40 buck a month for broadband. EU and Japan customers would love broadband at only $40 buck a month with no meter (how many EU people let Kazaa run all the time and let anyone who wants upload from them while they pay meteredd access?).
This is good in the long run however, because the US will end up with $20 broadband with a $5 wifi add on option probably long before prices approach our current levels in other markets.
Depends on what you mean by recession. To most economists, a recession is six months of negative growth. So if it isn't negative growth, it isn't a recession. So... US economic growth during a US recession is negative. EU growth during normal productivity is positive. The NBER's definition of recession would have to be extremely odd to declare a period of economic growth a recession.
Insight Research is the company that produced the $44 billion/44% annual growth/$163 billion 5-yr forecast mentioned... Here are some of their other predictions on total worldwide spending by $2008:
o ute.html
Add-Drop Multiplexers (read: "routers for telecoms that don't already have billions of dollars of debt they are going bankrupt trying to pay off"): $64 billion
Grid Computing (read: "that complicated and annoying parallel programming thing I have to figure out enough about so I can tell the CEO how it's a great idea but not a good fit for our environment"): unspecified "billion$"
OSS - Operations Support Systems (read: "yet more technology and services for those telecom administrative functions that we have been trying to rightsize given the 25% drop in worldwide telecom revenue over the past three years"): 12.5% annual growth to $27 billion
THE BEST ONE OF ALL:
DCS - Digital Cross Connects: (read: "high-end devices for telecom carriers that facilitate the transmission of digital information from one place to another, that we choose to call something other than routers"): 51% growth from $4.8 billion to $35 billion in 2005. This report is from 2000. They are still selling it for $999.
Reality: Total market size for high end carrier switches in 2003: less than $1 billion. Total annual router market: about $6 billion.
http://www.nwfusion.com/edge/news/2003/0815carrir
Now if you just look at the market for the high-end carrier routers/switches, then that market size should be around $20 billion already, so Insight Research's figures are off by a factor of 20 three years down the road.
Boy... I just wish I was smart enough to figure out why smart people who sell research reports for thousands of dollars seem to consistently overestimate the size of the markets they analyze by... a whole lot.
Simple, if everyone were paid the same, how do you determine where you have a shortage of workers, and how would you get people to change from jobs where there is a surplus of workers to that where there is a shortage? Or would the government just dictate who works where?
For socialism to work, you have take away an incredible amount of power from individuals and place it in the hands of government officials. Which, if you believe in the maxim of Lord Acton, is very very unhealthy.
----- Question authority, but not ours. Hate the man, but we're not him.
This may be one of the best posts in this whole thread.
----- Question authority, but not ours. Hate the man, but we're not him.
Central America is part of North America.
Who was it said a worrying percentage of Americans thought Central America meant Kansas? Phil (British)
Phil
Either way, I stand corrected. North America is a continent with (many) more than two countries. Didn't know Greenland was part of it.
Phil
These projections look like those of an economist, not someone in the biz. I'm sincerely hoping that in 4 years WIFI will be near dead and we'll be up to one of the other standards being developed with 10 mile ranges and faster speed. Longer ranges would better fit the footprint of the existing cell towers and allow us to reuse infrastructure. And the faster speed would keep me from needing to plug into the wall during meetings because the speed of the office WIFI network sucks.
Perhaps though, I'm speaking as an American. My unique problem is that a place I'm looking to move to has cell coverage, but has no chance at DSL or cable. If you look at the coverage of the 3, cellular actually has greater coverage in America. So, the deployment about 4 years from now of a broadband system on a cell tower footprint with a speed matching what cable will be in 4 years would very likely wipe out cable and DSL in this country and give us a unified system whether we're roaming, at home, or in the office. Some of the standards being developed today could do that.
Frankley, true socialists believe that there would never be a shortage of workers. If you take huge population X odds are that there are a fair number of Y people who would actually *like* to perform job Z, be it janitorial work (yes some people like this), programming or whatever.
As for your second paragraph, this is toal bullshit since a true socialist doesn't believe in government control over the economy AT ALL. Thats just a twisted Soviet-Stalinist view of what socialism / communism means. It's not what Marx originally intended at all.
If true socualism was ever achieved on a global scale, no government would have any need to care about economics period. All they'd need to be concerned with is what a government should be concerned with, encorcing laws andd protecting human rights.