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X-Prize Progress Update
savuporo writes "The X-Prize organization has released a summary document (PDF), detailing the recent progress and immediate plans of 13 different competing teams, of those who have publicised information of significant hardware development (there are a total of 27 officially listed competitors from seven nations by now). Some details: quite a few teams are expecting to do full-scale or subscale powered flight tests soon, some as early as January 2004. Burt Rutan can still be considered as leading the pack, but others are not too far behind, and the winner is far from certain. Armadillo Aerospace states that some US teams are hindered more by regulatory hassles, than technical issues. Speaking of Armadillo, the team has just released a very special video, commemorating tomorrow's 100th anniversary of powered flight."
TEAM: SCALED COMPOSITES
WEBSITE: WWW.SCALED.COM
TEAM LEADER: BURT RUTAN
It is expected that the next six to nine months will involve a number of rocket powered flights of SpaceShipOne, with each flight involving a longer and longer burn of the hybrid engine. The first flight may be limited to a short 15- second burn, with later flights demonstrating the full 60+ second burn time bringing SpaceShipOne from 50,000 feet eventually to an altitude of 328,000 feet (62 miles...space!).
TEAM: ARMADILLO AEROSPACE
WEBSITE: WWW.ARMADILLOAEROSPACE.COM
TEAM LEADER: JOHN CARMAC
Immediately after completion of the engine test program, Armadillo will be testing a full scale boilerplate X PRIZE vehicle with a captive hover test at their 100-acre test facility, followed by some low altitude hover tests to 3,000 ft. With these tests completed, it's their intent to do some additional low altitude launches within the "amateur" classification (and they continue to work with FAA AST for a burn time waiver). The next phase of successively higher altitude tests and ultimately manned X PRIZE flights will be dependent on what the team calls its biggest challenge: the launch license application and accompanying environmental review. Technically, Armadillo claims they will be ready to fly X PRIZE missions well before the end of the year, but Team members are fond of referring to the Wernher von Braun quote: "We can lick gravity, but sometimes the paperwork is overwhelming." Challenges included, this Dallas based group of bicycle repair mechanics is relishing the prospect of an exciting 2004.
TEAM: STARCHASER INDUSTRIES
WEBSITE: WWW.STARCHASER.CO.UK
TEAM LEADER: STEVE BENNETT
With the Thunderstar and its new engines now in production, Starchaser plans to fly in 2004. The team has also announced that it will make its propulsion system available for sale to other X PRIZE contestants on a commercial basis.
TEAM: CANADIAN ARROW
WEBSITE: WWW.CANADIANARROW.COM
TEAM LEADER: GEOFF SHEERIN
Next steps for the team will include continued testing of the engine to prepare it for actual flight onboard the first Canadian Arrow spacecraft that is scheduled for launch next year. When successful, the Arrow will make Canada the fourth nation to put humans into space.
TEAM: DA VINCI PROJECT
WEBSITE: WWW.DAVINCIPROJECT.COM
TEAM LEADER: BRIAN FEENEY
Da Vinci Project celebrated the 100th anniversary of powered flight with a Technical conference and press evening on December 16th & 17th. Early in 2004 da Vinci Project hopes to receive its license to launch from the Canadian Government and begin a sequence of test flights culminating in an series of flights to win the X PRIZE.
TEAM: PABLO DE LEON & ASSOCIATES
WEBSITE: WWW.PABLODELEON.COM
TEAM LEADER: PABLO DE LEON
During 2004 we will concentrate in launch test of at least two half scale vehicles and in launch operations. Several hybrid static firing tests will also be performed. Construction of a full scale capsule will begin in July 2004. This capsule will be used for training, simulation and to study mating/demating techniques.
TEAM: HIGH ALTITUDE RESEARCH CORP. (HARC)
WEBSITE: WWW.HARCSPACE.COM
TEAM LEADER: TIM PICKENS
HARC will continue progressing toward full scale launches while keeping safety first. Hardware design and testing will continue into 2004 with a launch of the Liberator Escape Tower and Capsule in the 1st half of 2004. HARC is planning for a summer launch of the "Little Joe" version of the Liberator to an altitude of approximately 40 kilometers. The first full scale launch is planned for late summer and will be followed by another launch in the fall. The two X PRIZE competition flights will take place in late 2004, and there are already astronaut candidates pitching in to help move the Team toward that goal.
T
regulatory hassles? If those regulations weren't there, everyone and their dog would be building inter-continental ballistic missiles, and claiming to be contending for the 'X-Prize'...
The government damn well better keep those regulations in place... otherwise WWIII here we come!
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Programming is like sex... Make one mistake and support it the rest of your life.
Armadillo Aerospace states that some US teams are hindered more by regulatory hassles, than technical issues.
It really makes one wonder where we would be if Goddard had restrictions on fuel sources and flight space or even where the Wright Bros. would be if they had to constantly check with local authorities every time they wanted to make a flight.
When my grandfather learned how to fly, planes had three or four instruments and they simply ran the engine up and took off and landed wherever they wanted. Times change of course and when I learned, we had significant classroom time talking about all sorts of regulations before we could even get into planes. Granted, some of this control is simply because of crowded airspace, but it seems sometimes that our fear of terrorism is actually hampering development of a whole variety of technologies and progress in fields as disparate as aerospace to biology. Where to draw the line?
Visit Jonesblog and say hello.
I'm still wondering whether John Carmack's ship is going to have a BFG 9000 on it or not.
to get commercial space exploration started. As long as NASA is the only serious space agency, progress will be slow and safe. By letting individuals and small groups take risks that NASA is unwilling or unable to take, progress can be expected much sooner. The same thing has been seen throughout history as individuals willing to take risks have always surpassed massive, slow, cautious exploration by governments.
Celebrities are like ads, if we all ignore them, they'll just go away.
Uh, why do they have the canadian flag for armadillo? Armadillo is in Texas and fly's out of Oklahoma...
Armadillo Videos
windows media
quicktime
mpeg
By the looks of some of these entries, is 10 million dollars really enough to compensate these guys? Sure, alot of them are doing it to live out some childhood dream, but wouldn't a prize >$20 mill give that extra motivation?
From the looks of their craft, 10 mill would hardly make a dent to recoup what some of these companies have put in already, and they haven't even made it to space yet!
I guess the first firings would be short, and would be designed to test the vehicle in the powered and high-speed-glide speed and dynamics envelopes rather than the lower-speed glide one which is now reasonably well characterized.
This is all very exciting.
Bruce
Bruce Perens.
I love the objective point of view Fountainhead Entertainment and the rest of the ultra-libertarian Rand fanbois express in the 100 years of flight vid.
Nevermind that a good portion of the redtape involved has nothing to do with the environment - it's easier to just paint yourself as wounded by crazies on a crusade than rationally represent the problems the other side has with your actions. Not that I don't sympathize with Armadillo Aerospace here (the bureaucracy mindlessly bent on preventing its citizens from doing anything out of the ordinary is a tough thing to stare down), but it's good to know KAK was kicked out of id before she could really Yoko Ono Carmack . . .
Keep in mind that the funding for the prize expires on 1 Jan 2005 ("the X PRIZE is fully funded through January 1, 2005, through private donations and backed by an insurance policy" from the X Prize web site). That's less than 13 months from now. Scaled Composites, which I suppose is the leader, is planning flight tests for the next 6-9 months leading "eventually" to a 100 km altitude which is the altitude needed to win the prize.
That doesn't give them a lot of extra time if they experience trouble. Of course what is great about having multiple teams is that if one falters, another may succeed. Given the number of things which can go wrong (a zillion technical things, and of course the legal/funding/etc ones), however, it isn't hard to imagine all the teams being delayed past the deadline.
But having said all that, it is great to see this activity going on. Should be fun to watch!
Rocket fuel, (PowerPoint-slide obsessed) professionals, and a whole NASA-load of official oversight. Experimentally verified as dangerous.
Anything less than 14 dead is an incredible improvement over the present situation.
All I have to do is pay sales tax on the parts.
My real worry is not regulations against my warp drive cos there aren't any, its submarine patents.
I'm afraid in 1982 somebody may have made an initial filing which by the time my invention comes out will cover my invention.
Sam
blog.sam.liddicott.com
The Toronto Star had a recent human-interest story A do-it-yourself shot at the final frontier about Brian Feeney behind the Da Vinci team project.
One line blog. I hear that they're called Twitters now.
I suspect that if they were somehow brought into the present era, the Wright Brothers would relate for more to the efforts of folks like Armadillo Aerospace than any of the official government programs.
I wonder why Armadillo is listed as a Canadian effort in the X-Prize PDF. Maybe I just haven't been paying close enough attention lately... did we trade Texas for Quebec when I wasn't looking?
Hmm... come to think of it, maybe that's not such a bad idea.
With reasonable men I will reason; with humane men I will plead; but to tyrants I will give no quarter. -- William Lloyd
http://www.armadilloaerospace.com/n.x/Armadillo/Ho me/Paraphernalia
Not only can they laugh at their mistakes, they can try to profit from them. ;)
Spell cheek you've failed me four the last thyme!
...I wonder how many people will die testing their vehicles? Rocket fuel, (over)enthusiastic amateurs, not much official oversight. Sounds dangerous! Rocket fuel, (PowerPoint-slide obsessed) professionals, and a whole NASA-load of official oversight. Experimentally verified as dangerous. Space travel is dangerous. We know this to be so, and we do it anyway. The astronauts knew the risks before they got into that shuttle. THat isn't to say the situation can't be improved, but the mere fact that space travel is dangerous is known and has not deterred us in the past.
It really makes one wonder where we would be if Goddard had restrictions on fuel sources and flight space
Not to diminish Goddards achievements, but in terms of who-influenced-whom, he was more on a side-track of space explocation. Both Wernher von Braun and Sergej Korolov had most of their roots elsewhere. And of course, the military behind them, paving the road...
Until somebody actually demonstrates a macroscopic piece of material with sufficient tensile strength to build a space elevator, I'm not getting too excited.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
--Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
However, given his difficulties of getting hold of something relatively benign like hydrogen peroxide, I'm not liking Carmack's odds of getting the requisite quantities of plutonium :-)
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
--Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
I guess I shouldn't really be surprised that it's covered by an insurance policy, rather than a $10M in a bank account.
Still, can you imagine trying to put together a team to do that actuarial calculations for the premiums on that policy?
We have a good working relationship with AST, the division of the FAA that handles launch license, and we are one of only three companies (along with Scaled and XCOR) currently in the RLV launch license process. We have found all the people there helpful and eager to work with us. There is a lot of paperwork to be done, but we are working through it, and do not see a problem satisfying them. Things like calculating and minimizing expected third party casualty rates are obviously necessary and sensible.
The environmental aspects are less rational, with no analytical sense of scale.
Still, I'm only mildly concerned about the regulatory side of things. I think it will work out. None of our work is held up by any of this, so the worst case is that we have a vehicle built and tested repeatedly at the 200,000 lb-sec waivered impulse limit, with no launch license to allow us to fill the tank the rest of the way up. If that happens, THEN we get peeved about the situation, but continue flight testing with what we can.
Let me repeat: In no way have we been hampered by regulatory burden. Yet. We have been VERY hampered by commercial companies being too worried about liability exposure to work with us - peroxide companies, filament winders, and parachute companies have all caused us significant problems.
The supply issue with 90% peroxide basically cost us almost the entire year of flight testing. We spent the last six months developing a propellant combination that could conveniently replace the 90% peroxide based on widely available chemicals instead of the ultra-specialized propulsion grade. We are in the final optimizing and scale up phase of that. Instead of being irate about it, I try to look on the bright side - it is lots cheaper, easer to handle, and even a bit higher performance.
There are lots of problems still to be worked, but everything is coming along fine. We are behind schedule and somewhat over budget, but no worse off than any other project I have ever worked on...
John Carmack